Vietnams transition global integration implications for national security strategy

VIETNAM’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTEGRATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY David Elliott Vietnam has a widely expanded repertoire o f models and examples to choose from in responding to the challenges and opportunities o f globalization The societal changes set in motion in Vietnam in the past several decades by internal factors have in many ways led to a return to distinctive cultural practices and ideas that had gone underground during the Cold War and Vietnam’s prolonged revolutionary struggle At the same time, the complexities of globalization pose major challenges for Vietnam in formulating a strategy for the 21st Century In 1976, following the unification o f the country no informed Vietnamese observer would have anticipated a world without an “order” that expressed the main ideological division o f the time, between communism and capitalism, imperialism and “progressive humanity.” The driving forces of global change had been laid out by Marx and supplemented by Lenin Friends and enemies were sharply defined and the conflict between them was an essential feature o f the dynamics o f international relations A Vietnamese foreign policy based on the undiscriminating idea of being friends with all who would be friends with it would have jarred the confrontational instincts and attitudes of a triumphant leadership, still savoring the heady experience of defeating the formidable leader of the imperialist world The idea of Vietnam (and China, along with a shrunken non-Marxist Russia) participating in an interdependent global market economy and joining the World Trade Organization, founded on capitalist principles, would have seemed fantastic Membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would likewise have been unthinkable As for relations with the United States, what Vietnam sought was not, as is now the case, access to the huge American market (and even a low-key security relationship, with visits by the US Navy and the Secretary of Defense), but reparations for war-inflicted damage ' Pomona College USA, October 16, 2012 78 VIETNAM’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION Three Major Post Cold War Changes in Vietnam’s Thinking The first was the rejection of the Marxist central-planning model in the 1980s, and the related undermining of the idea that the party (and its leadership) was always right, far-seeing, and wise The second was the shift from confrontation to accommodation marked by Resolution 13 (1988) and the decision to withdraw from Cambodia, along with the related upgrading of economics as Vietnam’s top priority, and the downgrading of military force as the ultimate guarantor of Vietnam’s national interests The third was the 1991 adoption of a policy o f “becoming friends” with all countries who would agree to normal relations with Vietnam— which implicitly rejected the zero-sum “us against the enemy” (địch - tà) foundation of previous Vietnamese strategic thinking These three developments took place in a context o f crisis, but the hammerblow shock did not come until the final collapse o f the Soviet Union in 1991 This definitively undermined any possibility of avoiding real change It marked the beginning o f the end for the conservative resistance to reform and opened the way for the subsequent decisions to reconcile with former adversaries, to join ASEAN, and to embark on a path o f deep integration with the global economy It was not, therefore, a single “external shock” that led to the changes, but a shock following an extended crisis which had weakened resistance to change that was the coup de grace for the old ways The changes did not take place immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union, but unfolded in fits and starts over the next decade until the internal debate surrounding them was resolved A major theme o f the reformers, which paved the way for acceptance of the new thinking - a central topic of this book - is the growing consensus among Vietnam’s leaders that the primary danger to Vietnam came not from hostile forces in the capitalist world bent on destroying communism in Vietnam, but from “falling behind” {tụt hậu) In addition to the popular dissatisfaction with the regime’s economic mismanagement and the hardships o f life, which severely undermined the prestige that the revolutionary leadership had gained from its wartime exploits, Vietnamese nationalist sentiment was deeply pained by the position of the country as an impoverished and marginalized actor in a world that was passing them by One of the most significant features of the mind set of the reform-minded party leaders on the eve of the 1986 Sixth Congress was that they felt Vietnam’s economic problems could be compartmentalized and resolved from within and by pragmatic adjustments that would not fundamentally challenge the basic ideological foundations and assumptions of the party Most importantly, security issues arising from the changing international situation were viewed as entirely separate from the 79 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TÉ LẰN THỨ T economic issues Resolving Vietnam’s challenges in 1986 could be done by a twotrack approach-one for internal problems and another for external challenges Th s compartmentalization was rendered obsolete by the events of 1989 and is aftermath Looking back from the vantage o f 2006, Vo Van Kiet said, “The situation now is not like it as at the time o f the Sixth Congress, when there were big changes in the international situation When the situation is at an impasse, you had to change at the top, and change thinking, as at the Sixth Congress.” In contrast, Kiet felt that in 2006 the situation was less urgent and more favorable, and Vietnam could be incremental and discriminating in responding to the challenges of the time But today’s leaders, said Kiet, are much more aware o f the linkage between the international context and Vietnam’s internal problems “I would put it this way: the comrades who are in charge today have a knowledge, understanding, and ability to engage with the outside that is many times greater than it was fifteen or twenty years ago-to say nothing o f the wartime period Compared with the time I worked here [Ho Chi Minh City], the leading comrades have access to international information and contacts to research what is going on outside which are entirely superior, and their understanding is quite broad”.1 As Carlyle Thayer has written, the changes in the Soviet Union had a major impact on Vietnam’s reassessment o f its foreign policy “Vietnam’s ideologically derived world-view began to change in tandem with a re-thinking o f Soviet foreign policy It was not until May 1988, however, that Vietnam’s new foreign policy orientation was codified.” The new view was distilled in politburo Resolution 13 which called for a multidirectional foreign-policy orientation,” and was a seminal moment in Vietnam’s response to the changes in the international system As Thayer points out, there was an economic aspect of this decision in that Vietnam now defined its main task as taking advantage of favorable world conditions in order to lay the foundation for economic development and stabilize its domestic situation The policy laid out in Resolution 13 “thus set in motion changes in Vietnamese national and foreign policies which contributed to a diplomatic settlement o f the Cambodian conflict in October 1991.”2 Interview with Vo Van Kiet in Saigon Giai Phong, “Vi ca nuoc, TP HCM phai CO buoc dot pha” [For the entire country, Ho Chi Minh City has to have a breakout], Tuoi Tre online, September 7, 2006 Carlyle A Thayer, “ Vietnam ese Foreign Policy: Multilateralism and the Threat o f Peaceful Evolution,” in Carlyle A Thayer and Ramses Amer, eds., Vietnamese Foreign Policy in Transition (New York: St M artin’s Press, 1990): 2-3 80 VIETN AM ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION The precursor of Resolution 13, the landmark document that previewed Vienam’s post-Cold War foreign policy and embodied Vietnam’s final decision to wit!draw from Cambodia, was a Politbüro Resolution 32 o f July 1986, which initated the process of new thinking about Vietnam and the world Because there was not a sufficient consensus within the party, and because conditions were not yet righ (including Vietnam’s reluctance to make the necessary concessions to get a Canbodian settlement at this time), the full impact of this decision was not felt until two years later But it was a watershed moment in reordering priorities, most notibly by giving priority to economic development over military security and redefining the main mission of diplomacy Phan Doan Nam stresses the importance of Vietnam adopting a view of proíCtively {chù động) shaping the external environment This is in contrast to its pre\ious concern with a reactive diplomatic judo, deflecting aggressive encioachments into its security sphere, and stress on finding ways o f exploiting conradictions and weaknesses on the part of its opponents.1 This reactive approach is nost suitable for the pursuit o f “possession goals” with the relatively simple objective of defending and securing territory, as opposed to a more complex “milieu goaf’ of proactively and cooperatively constructing a favorable external (global or regimal) environment.2 “To escape from this difficult situation, in July 1986, the poliburo met and issued Resolution 32 which clearly set out guidelines [chủ trươĩg] and revised diplomatic policies, and moved toward a solution in Cambodia The resolution clearly stated: the external mission o f Vietnam is to proactively [chi động] create a condition o f stability for economic construction.” This would requre pursuing a policy of peaceful coexistence with China, ASEAN, and the Unied States, and building Southeast Asia into a “region o f peace, stability, and coojeration.”3 In the face of all these concerns, Nguyen Van Linh argued, new thinking about the ole of military force was needed The past experience from the “liberation Phin Doan Nam, “N goai giao Viet Nam sau 20 nam Doi M o£’ [V ietnam ese diplom acy after twenty years o f doi moi], Tap Chi Cong San, 111 (2006) F(r a discussion o f V ietnam ’s traditional fixation with possession goals, see David W P Eliott,“Vietnam: Tradition Under Challenge,” in Trood and Booth eds., Strategic Cultures Fo the “strategic ju d o ” aspect o f revolutionary Vietnam’s diplom acy, see David W P Eliott, “H anoi’s Strategy in the Vietnam War,” in Jayne W erner, ed., The Vietnam War: VUtnamese and American Perspectives (NewYork: Sharpe, 1993) Phin Doan Nam, “Ngoai giao Viet Nam sau 20 nam Doi M oi” [Vietnam ese diplom acy after tw:nty years o f doi moi], Tap Chi Cong San, 111 (2006) 81 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TẾ LẰN THỨ TƯ Struggle” was “precious” but not relevant to the current circumstances This article formulated an early version of a concept that would later be termed “comprehensive security.” “You cannot protect the Fatherland without a strong military But political, economic, and diplomatic [đổi ngoại] factors also play a key role i n the mission of defending the country We must organize and mobilize each facet: struggle and construction, politics and economics, creating a comprehensive strength [sức mạnh tổng hợp] to defend the Fatherland, just as we knew how 10 develop comprehensive strength to defeat the enemy during war.” Post Cold War Vietnamese Conceptions of Security This important formulation of Vietnam’s approach to “defending the Fatherland” at the end o f 1989 contains many o f the seeds o f Vietnam’s emerging post-Cold War conceptions of security O f these, four are especially important: the idea of comprehensive security, the importance of diversification o f external ties, “engaging in the life o f the international system,” and the primacy of economic development over military spending All o f these pointed away from a traditional approach to security First, “comprehensive security” marked a shift from “possession goals” toward “milieu goals” in Vietnamese thinking about security, and reflected a relative downgrading o f the military component of security Second, the idea o f diversifying relationships regardless of political system implicitly rejected a “two worlds” view of the international system And, third, “engagiing in the life of the international system” combined both o f these elements, in Chat it accepted the idea o f a pluralistic constellation o f actors in the international system, and mandated an active engagement with the system within its own parameters and rules-again a difference from the Cold War attempt to operate only withiin the confines of an “antisystem” of socialist countries who tried to pose an alternative to the capitalist and Western dominated system of the post-Second World War pieriod The fourth element o f the emerging Vietnamese conception of security in the- postCold War era was that economic strength was the most indispensable elemient of comprehensive strength, and that Vietnam’s relations with the outside world lhad to be harnessed to the goal of economic development The period 1992-1995, spanning an interval from the collapse of the Soviet Union and normalization of relations with China through full membership in ASEAN and diplomatic recognition by the United States, was also a tirme of Nguyen Van Linh, “Cung CO hoa binh, de cao canh giac, phat huy suc manh tong hop d c bao ve To Quoc” [Consolidate peace, raise vigilance, develop comprehensive strength to defend the Fatherland], Nhan Dan, December 15, 1989 82 VIETNAM’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION significant change in elite views of the nature of the international system, and its implications for Vietnam “The elimination of the world that was divided into two opposing social systems has created new and very favorable possibilities for the forces of production to reach their full potential,” wrote Nguyen Co Thach, using the familiar Marxist vocabulary Then, applying it to a new phenomenon, he went on to say that, “The globalization of the world economy is creating conditions for a new international division o f labor on the scale of the entire globe At the same time, mutual dependence [tùy thuộc lẫn ] between big and small countries also has expanded to a larger scale.” The abandonment of the concept of a world sharply divided between antagonistic systems, the prelude to the victory of the communist world over the capitalist world, was a fundamental conceptual shift that paved the way for viewing international relations in “win-win” rather than zero-sum terms Deputy Foreign Minister Vu Khoan argued that the underlying structural dynamic o f international change is the “trajectory” (xu thế) o f the scientific, technological, and industrial revolution which had led to dramatically accelerated economic growth, uneven development, and increasingly dense interdependence (tính ràng buộc lẫn ngày tăng) This creates the paradox o f offering an unprecedented opportunity for less-developed countries to catch up, but at the same makes the threat o f falling further behind even more serious Moreover, there was the additional paradox o f proliferating economic “opponents,” even at a time when the threat o f military opponents had declined “Some people have the view that in war, there is only one enemy, while in economic competition everyone is an opponent [đổi thu\, and because of this there is a struggle that is no less tense and complex [than war].”2 Vu Khoan nevertheless urged Vietnam to realistically consider its options In the light o f the changed world, what were these options? “There are only two choices” , he argued,“either shut yourself in completely [khép kin] or act in a way appropriate to the trajectory of the times [he used the term xu thể, which might be translated as “tendency,” “trajectory”, or “direction o f change”] and objective reality.” Khoan concluded that world history had demonstrated that attempts to seal Nguyen Co Thach, “Dac diem tong quat cua tinh hinh the gioi 50 nam qua” [Special general characteristics o f the global situation over the past fifty years], Tap Chi Nghien Cuu Quoc Te [ Journal o f International Studies], So Dac Biet [special issue], no (September 1995): 22 Vu Khoan, “An ninh, phat trien va anh huong hoat dong doi ngoai [Security, development, and influence in external activities],” Tap Chi Quan He Quoc Te [International Studies], N o.2, December 1993, p.5 83 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TẾ LÀN THỨ T off a country from the international system had led those countries only to fall further behind And in today’s world, “total closure” is not even an option As a consequence, “the best choice is to adequately recognize the main tendency [xu the] and objective reality, and find an appropriate way of dealing with it.” Going with the main flow of global change will not only let a country better pursue its national interests, it will educate it to avoid being taken advantage o f by other countries who know how to make these changes work for them.1 Khoan summarized his points about international relations in the post-Cold War era as follows: “Previously, when speaking of independence and sovereignty often people would envision a political closed-door policy along the lines of isolation and economic self-sufficiency Today, with the bipolar order featuring opposing political-military systems headed by the Soviet Union and America gone, and the world in the process o f becoming a new order which is more diverse [đa dạng], the concept of political and economic independence is changing.” Now, in a diverse and multipolar world, the countries that “can create for themselves an active and more flexible posture will be in a much better position to preserve their independence and sovereignty.” In a globalized world, a country that can leverage its comparative economic advantage will be able to “create a position o f maximum influence in international relations, [and] will be that much more able to preserve its standing and sovereignty [tư thể tự chù].”2 This was a significant departure from the view that sovereignty could best be protected by insulating Vietnam from an unpredictable global system On the other hand, the question o f whether joining organizations and institutions o f the new world order dominated by Vietnam’s former adversaries would undermine the SRV’s existing institutions and challenge the essential principles of the ruling communist party gave Vietnam’s leaders pause The issue was whether Vietnam would be assimilated (hòa nhập) into the post-Cold War international system, or would integrate (hội nhập) into it The assimilation model implied the transformation o f Vietnam’s socialist identity and institutions The integration model suggested that Vietnam could maintain control over the extent to which it chose to integrate into this system, because the “integration” or, more literally, “joining,” would be the result of a choice by Vietnam’s leaders The language of voluntary association also carried the connotation that because the joining was voluntary, the extent of its own transformation after entering into the new international regimes and institutions could be managed by Vietnam Ibid Ibid 84 VIETN AM ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION “In today’s world,” Kiet told the Politburo, “there is no antagonistic conradiction between socialism and imperialism, but above all there is a quality of diversity and multipolarity which is becoming the most dominant [noi troi] element that governs the interactions [si/ vận động mối quan hệ] between all states in tie world.” In addition, globalization was playing an increasingly important role in iitemational relations and rendering the old divisions obsolete “Many other conradictions which existed during the period when the world was divided into two canps, including even the contradiction between imperialism and socialism, may coninue to exist, but they will increasingly be governed by other contradictions and bccmse of this will not longer play their old role.”1 Kiet related post-Cold War changes in the international environment directly to Vetnam’s decision to integrate into organizations and institutions that once were vieved by Hanoi as bastions o f an antagonistic system “If we don’t fully grasp the abo'e points, it would be impossible to explain Vietnam becoming a member of ASIAN, signing a framework agreement with the European Union, and managing to eitablish international relations that are constantly expanding, and securing an intenational position that is increasingly better than previously at a time when the sociilist world no longer exists.” Kiet argued that, paradoxically, the end of the Colt War ideological struggle actually deprived the United States and “other reacionary forces” o f a banner to rally anti-Vietnamese global forces, “Because this banier has lost its allure.” Kiet directly refuted the “peaceful evolution” argument and :ontended that the end o f the Cold War had made Vietnam’s party and regime mort secure than ever Switching from Marxist polemical terminology, Kiet shifted to the language of tradtional values and defined the ultimate purpose o f political action as attaining the ịoal o f “prosperous population, strong country, a society that is egalitarian and civiized,” which is “the deep aspiration o f our people and, at the same time, is also the vish o f many developing countries and progressive forces in the world.”2 This fomulation neatly combined the traditional modernizing nationalist goal of “Tiu cua Ong Vo Van Kiet gui Bo Chinh Tri Dang Cong Sap Vietnam 1995” [Letter sent by M Vo Van Kiet to the politburo, 1995], http://www.lmvntd.org/dossier/0895tvvk.htm Ciriously, this crucial document, sent by Prime M inister Vo Van Kiet to his colleagues in th< politburo on August 9, 1995, is extremely difficult to find on the internet, while many otler sensitive internal Party docum ents are widely dissem inated by politically engaged pesons and groups both inside and outside o f Vietnam have used the most plausible vesion o f this document that I can find Ibil 85 V lfT NAM HQC - KY y £ u HQl THAO QUÖC T t LAN THlT TÜ achieving “wealth and power” with the professed ideals o f socialism, “egalitarian society,” while identifying Vietnam with the aspirations o f a broad category of developing nations and “progressive forces” to downplay the accusation that Vietnam was simply capitulating in joining the rich man’s clubs o f capitalism Kiet’s ultimate purpose in circulating these views a year before the Eighth Party Congress was to underline the importance of breaking free from the ideological constraints of the past and seize advantage o f what he argued was a uniquely favorable moment to accelerate Vietnam’s economic development The alternative to “seizing the opportunity” was to fall further, and perhaps fatally, behind “We stand before the objective demand that our country must become rich, the sooner the better, in order to have the strength to compete and attract all sources [of investment] from outside, in order to maintain our independence and sovereignty while expanding our cooperation and development As a number of ‘tigers’ in Asia have done If we don’t this we will miss the opportunity and lose everything.”1 The Tipping Point There appears to have been a “tipping point” at which the stalemate between advocates and opponents o f deeper integration was broken, and the momentum toward extensive regional and global engagement became irresistible Until 2000, conservative opponents o f deeper integration had been able to exercise a veto in some key policy areas, or act as a brake on the pace and scope o f reform and integration in other areas The key question is, what changed around the turn of the millennium to clear the way for a re-energized reform process? A related issue is whether decisions taken during this period were seen by Vietnam’s leaders as an irrevocable change o f direction, or merely another attempt to balance competing objectives with a hedging strategy The thesis advanced here is that it was a departure from the hedging approach o f the 1990s A comprehensive survey of Vietnam’s 1975-2002 external policies noted that although the Eighth Party Congress of 1996 had advocated a policy o f integration, the Ninth Congress elevated this to a central focus and stressed the need for proactive integration The Ninth Party Congress added the element of emphasis on deep integration to Vietnam’s external policy “The new point in the external mission statement this time was that the [Ninth Party] Congress strongly affirmed proactive integration into the global and regional economy.” The pace o f integration accelerated in the interval between the Ninth Congress and the Tenth Party Ibid 86 VIETN A M ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION Congress of 2006, which consolidated many of the “opening up” measures and irreversibly committed Vietnam to them Vietnam’s January 2007 entry into the WTO completed this phase of the integration process If there is a precise point in time at which the balance between conservatives and reformers tipped in favor o f deeper engagement it was probably mid-2000, as indicated by Carl Thayer’s account “The plenum concluded that there was no other choice but to continue with regional and global integration The meeting gave its approval for the new trade minister to go to Washington in order to discuss U.S clarifications At the same time, long-standing plans to open a stock exchange in Ho Chi Minh City were suddenly given the green light.” “A new breakthrough in thinking and theory regarding market economics came at the Ninth Party Congress (April 2001) which was the first time the concept that our country was implementing a market economy with socialist characteristics was put forth.”2 Several years later, Nguyen Phu Trong, the politburo member who was in charge of a major review of theoretical and ideological issues related to reform wrote that “Over the two days o f 12 and 13 March, 2004, after listening to the steering committee [of the Council on Theoretical Issues] give an overview of their report, the politburo had a discussion and gave the following assessment: ‘This is the first time our party has had the conditions to look back over the entire process of doi moi over the past, an overview on a large scale, of importance, with rich contents relating to almost all the matters relating to the policy and strategy o f revolution in our country To the present, although there have been not a few difficulties, our country has undergone a fundamental and comprehensive change.”3 Perhaps the most important consequence of this comprehensive review of the reform process was that it concluded that Vietnam’s socialism was fundamentally secure, thus cutting the ground from under the conservatives’ continuing warnings that “peaceful evolution” was the foremost danger Vietnam faced, and shifting the focus to development, which favored those who had emphasized that “falling behind” was the main threat to Vietnam Despite the collapse o f socialism in the Carlyle Thayer, “Vietnam in 2000: Toward the Ninth Party Congress,” Asian Survey 41, no (January-February 2001): 181-8 Le Xuan Tung, “Nhung dot pha tu ly luan ve kinh te thi truong o nuoc ta” [New breakthroughs in thinking and theory regarding market economics in our country], Tap Chi Cong San online, 65 (2004) Nguyen Phu Trong, “ Doi moi tu ly luan vi su nghiep xay dung chu nghia xa hoi” [Renovate theoretical thinking for the mission o f building socialism], Tap Chi Cong San online, 76 (2005) 87 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TẾ LẦN THỨ TƯ Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the global and regional economic crises, Trong said, Vietnam had “not been swept along [cuốn theo], and has overcome these difficulties to advance step by step.” Vietnam had “taken the plunge,” but had not been swept away by the current o f unpredictable change It was now read) to take the momentous step toward deep integration of joining the WTO The connection between breaking out o f the condition o f underdevelopment and falling further behind and the Tenth Congress theme of pursuing deep integration was further spelled out by former deputy premier Vu Khoan “The Tenth Party Congress set forth the goal o f ‘quickly leading our country out of the condition o f underdevelopment’ by the year 2010 Integration into the global economy will tie our economy into the regional and global economies on the basis of common rules o f the game [luật chơi The Tenth Party Congress spelled out the link between deep integration, comprehensive reform, proactive “milieu shaping” diplomacy, and not falling further behind in the global race for economic development The congress mandated “a faster rate o f development with the goal o f quickly bringing our country out o f its underdeveloped state, to create the foundation for becoming a contemporary type of industrialized society.” The foreign-policy corollary was that Vietnam should stress maintaining a “peaceful environment” and creating international conditions that were “more favorable for the program o f doi moi.”2 “Targets” and “Partners”: National Security in the Globalization Era By 2006, this view o f the essential multipolarity o f the world had been modified in recognition o f the extent to which globalization had challenged the primacy o f old style geopolitics and the classic nation state system “The reality shows that the general tendency is that the process of internationalization of social and economic questions is still a ‘unipolar internationalization’ that follows the ‘leader’s whip’ o f the country with the strongest economic potential.” For this reason, the challenges o f deep integration should not be underestimated “And this naturally also brings with it economic conflicts of interest and even the potential possibility o f political and social instability And because we have just officially Vu Khoan, “Tich cuc va chu dong hoi nhap kinh te quoc te” [Energetically and proactively integrate into the international economy], Tap Chi Cong San, 119 (2006) Nguyen Dy Nien, “Nam bat thoi CO, vuot qua thach thuc thuc hien thang loi duong loi doi ngoai Dai Hoi X Cua Dang” [Grasp the opportunity, overcome the challenge o f victoriously implementing the external policy o f the Tenth Party Congress ].Tap Chi Cong San online, 108(2006) 88 V IETN A M ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERG RATIO N joinid [the WTO] from an excessively low startingpoint, it is certain that we can’t imrrediately master the basic ‘rules o f the game’ right away, to find a lot of good fortine and advantage Moreover, in accepting these ‘rules o f the game’ we have to accent the complicated and sensitive new issues that they give rise to like ‘soft borcers’ [biên giới mềm], ‘information borders’ [biên giới thông tin], ‘cyber space’ [khóĩg gian điện tử] Finding where there is a reliable base of support and where then are forces that need to be guarded against is not simple as a result of the tran:formation o f ‘designated targets’ [đối tượng] to ‘partners’ [đổi tóc].” In some Vietiamese writings on international relations there is a caution that no relationship is pire cooperation or conflict (“partner” or “target”), which can also be interpreted as a:knowledging the disappearance of the two-world idea, in which relations on one iide were all cooperative “partners” and on the others all adversarial According to Professor Pham Quang Minh, o f the University of Hanoi, Resdution Eight of July 2003 marked a major development in Vietnam’s adju;tment to the post Cold War shifts of alignment in Asia Up until that time “it was not easy to determine how to play the game, and who shared the same idea.” Resdution Eight “provided for the first time the new definitions different from prevous ones in Vietnamese foreign policy.” One prominent example o f this was a newpost-Cold War definition o f those who are friends and those who are not, whiih was no longer the traditional địch - ta, but now a distinction between “đỡ/ tóc” (partners) and “đổi tượng” (targets or, as Professor Minh translates it, oppments - still a less adversarial category than “enemy”) These new categories were intended to provide a more subtle and diversified approach to Vietnam’s foregn policy and more flexibility to engage with former enemies In his view this was he most important Vietnamese foreign policy document since Resolution 13 of 198* Putting this resolution in the context of Vietnam’s development requirements, a Paty analysis stated “Resolution Eight stressed that in every relationship, whether with partners or adversaries, there was a mix of conflict and cooperation, and in each case it was necessary to simultaneously cooperate and struggle in each form of intenational relationship.”2 Nfuyen Van Tai, “Thoi co va thach thuc doi voi sue manh quan su quoc gia Viet Nam gi; nhap WTO” [Opportunities and challenges with regard to military strength when Vi:tnam joins the WTO], Tap Chi Cong San, 121 (2006) Piam Quang Minh, “Vietnam and Korea in East Asian Pacific Regionalism ,” paper deivered at the Fourth Annual Koret Conference, The W alter H Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Re;earch Center, Stanford University, March 2, 2012 89 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YÉU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TẾ LÀN THỨ T Alexander Vuvinh also highlights this document’s importance “July 2003 marked the third turning point in the evolution of Vietnam’s grand strategy since the 1980s It was in that month that the Eighth Plenum o f the Ninth VCP Central Committee passed a new national security strategy that remove[d] ideology as a criterion for selecting friends and foes This opened the door for strategic engagement with the United States, which had been identified as a strategic enemy by the preceding national security strategy (adopted in July 1992 but remained unpublicized).” Resolution Eight also had implications for Vietnam’s relations with China, since now national interest rather than socialist solidarity was the touchstone for making decisions about Vietnam’s national security Resolution Eight “made us understand more clearly, profoundly, and comprehensively, the mission of defending the socialist Fatherland.” While protecting socialism and the Party were prominently mentioned among the national security tasks, so was “protecting the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity” of Vietnam, and Resolution Eight was cited in connection with “border defense in the new situation.”2 Another analyst remarks on the complexities of a world that cannot be clearly divided into friends and enemies: “in the regional and international situation at present we must simultaneously build and defend the Fatherland in a very complex international environment, where the line between friends and enemies is not as clear as it was before, and both benefits and costs are involved in every international commercial relationship, as well as short and long term challenges all mixed together.” The appropriate response to these security challenges is to make interdependence work for you and embed yourself in as many global networks and bilateral relationships as possible “The more countries that have an interest in our country manifested through all relationships, the more opportunity we have to become interdependent with them This is also an opportunity to protect national security in the environment o f globalization.”3 Alexander Vuvinh, “Vietnam Between China and the United States: Historical Experiences Perceptions and Strategies,” paper delivered at the Fourth Annual Koret Conference, The W alter H Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, March 2, 2012 Vo Trong Viet, “Bao ve vung chac chu quyen bien gioi, vung bien cua to quoc tinh hỉnh m oi” [Solidly protect the Fatherland’s borders and maritime zones in the new situation], Tap Chi Cong San, 109-2006 Doan Van Thang, “An ninh quoc gia boi canh toan cau hoa” [National security in the environment o f globalization], Nghien Cuu Quoc Te, no 58, 9-2004, 100 90 VIETN AM ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION Is Strategy Possible in the Globalization E ra? Since 1986, Vietnam’s overall external aims were to ensure that the external environment would be favorable for its priority objective, economic development In the days o f the command economy, economic strategy was largely confined to the domestic plan “Strategy” was a term applied to diplomacy and military planning This term might suggest having to formulate contingency response to events beyond control, and in central planning the whole point was that everything was supposed to go “according to plan.” Foreign economic strategy, such as it was during this period, consisted largely of soliciting foreign aid In the age of globalization, however, an external economic strategy is essential “The process of regionalization and globalization confronts all countries, especially the underdeveloped [chậm phát triển] and developing countries with new opportunities along with many tough challenges, for which the appropriate response is not to isolate oneself and stand apart from that process Reality shows that the countries that have an appropriate external economic strategy will be able to both attract strength from the outside (ngoại lực) and develop their internal strength to develop firmly and fast.” There are also important political reasons for defining an explicit external economic strategy First, the party has staked its future on achieving the status of a developed and industrialized country as proof that its model o f “market socialism” works Second, the competitive demands of the international marketplace and the potential down sides o f globalization make it risky to leave Vietnam’s fate to chance Finally, there is a nationalist fear of losing control o f the country’s destiny, reflected in the following comments by politburo member Nguyen Phu Trong: “There is the idea that, in the conditions of ‘globalization’ o f the economy, opening the door and integrating, raising the question of and independent and sovereign economy, is not very astute and is unrealistic, to say nothing o f being conservative and thinking o f the old type Today’s world is a unified market, if you need anything you can buy it, if you are short on money you can borrow it, so why advocate building an independent and sovereign economy (?!) [emphasis in original] Put this way, it sounds reasonable on first hearing, but on careful reflection, it does not have a scientific foundation because it is too superficial and simplistic”2 Nguyen Tan Dung, “Ve duong loi va chien luoc phat trien kinh te - xa hoi cua Dang tai Dai Hoi IX” [On the party policy line and strategy o f socioeconomic developm ent at the Ninth Party Congress], Tap Chi Cong San, (2001) Nguyen Phu Trong, “Xay dung nen kinh te doc lap tu chu va chu dong hoi nhap kinh te quoc te” [Build an independent and sovereign economy and proactively integrate into the international econom y] Tap Chi Cong San, (2001) 91 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TÉ LÀN THỨ TƯ To the extent that security is discussed in the context o f economics it relates largely to two points First is that diplomacy and strategy are predicated on the assumption that the near future will be relatively peaceful, and there is very little discussion o f potential military threats to Vietnam The issue here, however, is a broader conception o f strategy that takes into account the Vietnamese adoption of the concept of comprehensive security and the paramount goal of preserv ing regional and global stability to facilitate economic development There is also the fact that Vietnam is not a major power on the world scene, and has only a modest capacity to influence the course of events even in its own region Military strength no longer plays a controlling role as before, while the controlling influence o f economics is constantly increasing Because of this, in the strategies of the big powers (Grand National Strategy) [English term and parenthesis in original], o f the world’s nations, especially the big countries, there is less of a tendency to rely solely on military strength, but [military strength] is usually combined with other instruments such as economics, political influence [ellipsis in original] to maximize the attainment of their strategic objectives.”1 What we mean by strategy? Many analysts define it narrowly as the relationship of military force to political goals Richard Betts writes that, “Strategy is the essential ingredient for making war either politically effective or morally tenable It is the link between military means and political ends, the scheme for how to make one produce the other Without strategy, there is no rationale for how force will achieve purposes worth the price in blood and treasure.” Even in this more narrowly defined realm o f strategy there are still complex questions about even the fundamental premise on which it rests “Politicians and soldiers may debate which strategic choice is best, but only pacifists can doubt that strategy is necessary.”2 But, says Betts, “Because strategy is necessary, however, does not mean that it is possible Those who experience or study many wars find strong reasons to doubt that strategists can know enough about causes, effects, and intervening variables to make the operations planned produce the outcomes desired To skeptics, effective strategy is often an illusion because what happens in the gap between policy objectives and war outcomes is too complex and unpredictable to be manipulated to Hoang Anh Tuan, “ Khai niem va viec su dung sue manh quoc gia va sue manh quan su quan he quoc te hien dai” [Conceptualizing and using national strength and military strength in contemporary international relations], Nghien Cuu Quoc Te, no 62 (9-2005) Richard K Betts, “ Is Strategy an Illusion?,” International Security 25, no (Autumn, 2000): 5-50 92 V IETN AM ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION a specified end When this is true, war cannot be a legitimate instrument of policy.” O f course, the Vietnamese revolutionaries would argue that it was foreign intervention that imposed the necessity for both war and strategy on them, and they take understandable pride in formulating a very sophisticated strategy that minimized their own vulnerabilities and maximized the vulnerabilities of their adversaries.2 The issue here, however, is a broader conception o f strategy that takes into account the Vietnamese adoption of the concept of comprehensive security and the paramount goal of preserving regional and global stability to facilitate economic development There is also the fact that Vietnam is not a major power on the world scene, and has only a modest capacity to influence the course o f events even in its own region A brief look at China's efforts to formulate a strategy appropriate for the era of globalization may offer some insights into the connection between strategy, security, and diplomacy Avery Goldstein analyzes Chinese attempts to formulate a comprehensive and integrated approach to the world “by examining the role of diplomacy in China’s grand strategy.” He argues that “after several years of ad hoc attempts to deal with the new challenges that accompanied the end o f the Cold War, a clearer consensus on China’s basic foreign policy line began to emerge among Party leaders in 1996 This consensus, tantamount to the country’s grand strategy, has provided a relatively coherent framework for the PRC’s subsequent international behaviour and the expected contribution o f diplomacy to the country’s security.”3 The definition o f “grand strategy” employed by Goldstein is the broader view o f the term that is used here “This consensus constitutes a grand strategy for China in the sense the term is often employed by international relations scholars, the distinctive combination o f military, political and economic means by which a state seeks to ensure its national security.”4 Goldstein’s account suggests some parallels between China’s and Vietnam’s strategic aims during the Cold War, and its adjustment to the post-Cold War era Ibid See David W P Elliott, “Vietnam: Tradition under Challenge,” in Trood and Booth, eds., Strategic Cultures, and David W P Elliott, “H anoi’s Strategy in the Vietnam War,” in Werner, ed., Vietnam War Avery Goldstein, “The Diplomatic Face o f China’s Grand Strategy: A Rising Power's Emerging Choice”, China Q uarterly 168 (December 2001): 835-6 Ibid 93 VIET NAM HQC - KY Y tU HQl THAO Q U6C t £ LAN THU* TlT The fundamental differences between the two cases also cast light on the role of grand strategy in Vietnam’s changing circumstances “During much o f the Cold War, Beijing’s overriding challenge was to ensure a relatively weak China’s security in the face of pressing threats from the superpowers The priority was clearly to address core survival concerns (territorial and political integrity) and the imperatives for Chinese diplomacy were correspondingly straightforward Today, however, China has greater strength and also believes it faces few immediate threats In addition to providing for core survival concerns, China’s contemporary grand strategy is designed to engineer the country’s rise to the status of a true great power that shapes, rather than simply responds to, the international system.” In order to defuse concerns about its growing strength, “since 1996 Beijing has forged a diplomatic strategy with two broad purposes: to maintain the international conditions that will make it feasible for China to focus on the domestic development necessary if it is to increase its relative (not just absolute) capabilities; and to reduce the likelihood that the U.S or others with its backing will exploit their current material advantage to abort China’s ascent and frustrate its international aspiration.” Vietnam must somehow adjust to an ever more powerful China with growing regional and perhaps even global ambitions It has periodically tried to so with a special form o f reassurance strategy that stresses common ideological ties and shared interest in preserving socialism With respect to other countries, Vietnam has also adopted a different reassurance strategy (Vietnam wants to be friends with all nations) as part o f its reconciliation with former adversaries and reintegration into the Southeast Asian region Vietnam, like China, has been concerned about possible instability on its periphery As in the case of China, Vietnam’s views on the extent o f multipolarity in the post-Cold War international order have also shifted, though the consensus conclusion appears to be that it would be impossible for the United States to consolidate a purely unipolar system This has important implications for strategy because it allows for the possibility that a form of great-power equilibrium will assure stability, and points away from the need to form a counterhegemonic coalition or even directly participate in the intrigues of great-power balancing In this regard, Vietnam can be a “free rider” on the self-regulating stabilizing mechanism of the international system which, in turn, reduces the urgency of thinking seriously about large-scale military conflict-in contrast to China Goldstein, “The Diplomatic Face o f C hina’s Grand Strategy”, 835 VIETNAM'S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION Ian Johnston’s linkage of China’s development-centered grand strategy and its status quo orientation to the international system has important implications for Vietnam As summarized by Katzenstein and Suh, this view holds that “Marketization and a comprehensive security strategy thus go hand in hand in consolidating a fundamentally status quo orientation in policy.” Accepting the status quo does not mean that Vietnam is oblivious to the rapid pacc and wide scope o f dynamic change going on in the world But it is seen as change within the system, not change of the system Continuous and far-reaching change in economics, science, and technology has the potential to be destabilizing, but it is now viewed as a condition of modem life rather than a hostile scheme aimed at Vietnam Self-strengthening and international cooperation are now considered to be the most effective defenses against the negative consequences of change A parallel to Vietnam’s wartime tradition o f “strategic judo” - turning the enemy’s strengths into weaknesses-would be taking the negatives o f globalization (disruptive change and potential for rapid movement up and down the scale of economic success) and turning them into positives (accelerated innovation and a chance to improve Vietnam’s position in the international pecking order) A related point would be that Vietnam has now accepted a proactive approach to international relations aimed at shaping the regional and global environment to provide stability and a favorable environment for development In a nondetermined environment, each society has to its best to create favorable conditions to further its interests “Nondetermined” does not mean that there are not larger historical forces at work, only that they are not predictable and the outcomes are not inevitable Adopting this concept and the related acceptance of the idea that the challenges posed by the impersonal forces of globalization not represent a specific threat from any country or group o f countries has altered Vietnam’s view of how it will engage with the outside world and has paved the way for accepting the risks o f deep integration in order to reap the benefits Vietnam has adjusted to the end of two-worlds era, but with a domestic political system that is a holdover from that earlier era The fact that there are still significant areas in which Vietnam’s political system inhibits full cooperation with even its closest partners in ASEAN is a case in point Recall the military spokesperson’s plea when explaining Vietnam’s first defense white paper; asked to J J Suh, Peter J Katzenstein, and Allen Carlson, eds., Rethinking Security in East Asia: Identity, Power, and Efficiency (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2004): 27 Johnstone’s essay in this volume (pp 34-96) is titled “ Beijing’s Security Behavior in the Asia-Pacific: Is China a Status Quo Power.” 95 VI$T NAM HQC - KY YfcU HQl THAO QU6C Tfc LAN THlT TU provide details on Vietnam’s military forces he replied, “allow me not to disclose these figures.” When Vietnam first joined ASEAN, the founding members of that organization triumphantly insisted that it would be on the terms of the original club members However, the expansion of ASEAN has led to a virtual two-tier organization, and raised questions about the cohesion of the organization and its future-especially in the light of the inexorable growth o f Chinese power and development of other forums which dilute ASEAN’s influence (ASEAN+3, for example) Still, Vietnam has made an irreversible choice for deep integration into a oneworld system It is impossible not to wonder how long the tension between maintaining the old domestic institutions and power structure in the face o f a profound socioeconomic transformation accelerated by this integration will last The central axis o f debate in Vietnamese politics since the end o f the Cold War has been the relative priorities to be given to regime preservation and avoiding falling further behind in a brutally competitive world, and the extent to which these two aims are in conflict The old nationalist commitment to reform and deep integration, in the interest o f seeking “wealth and power,” has apparently won out over conservative resistance to any change that would risk the power and position of the current elite But this story is not yet conclusively resolved In the era o f globalization it is a formidable challenge to formulate a strategy which comprehensively defends the increasingly diffuse and varied range o f national interests Thus the answer to the question "is strategy possible" is still elusive - arad not only for Vietnam, but for most countries in this complex world References A lexander V uvinh, “V ietnam Between C hina and the U nited States: H istorical Experiences, Perceptions and Strategies”, paper delivered at the Fourth A nnual K oret C onference, The W alter H Shorenstein A sia-Pacific R esearch C enter, Stanford U niversity, M arch 2, 2012 Avery G oldstein, “T he D iplom atic Face o f C h in a’s G rand Strategy: A R ising Power ’s Em erging C hoice”, China Quarterly 168 (D ecem ber 2001): -6 Carlyle A Thayer, “V ietnam ese Foreign Policy: M ultilateralism and the Threat o f Peaceful E volution”, in Carlyle A Thayer and R am ses A m er, eds., Vietnamese Foreign Policy in Transition (N ew York: St M artin’s Press, 1990): -3 Frederik Balfour, “Vietnam ’s Defense White Paper Sheds Little Light on M ilitary,’’Agence France Presse, September 24, 1998 96 VIETNAM'S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION C arlyle T hayer, “ V ietnam in 2000: Tow ard the N inth Party C ongress” , Asian Survey 41,no (Jan u ary -F eb ru ary 2001): 181-8 D avid w P Elliott, “ V ietnam : Tradition under C hallenge”, in Trood and Booth, eds., Strategic Cultures, and D avid w p Elliott, “ H anoi’s Strategy in the V ietnam W ar,” in W erner, ed., Vietnam War D ang Phong, “D em truoc doi moi: Uy quyen cua long d an ”, [On the eve o f reform: “The pow er o f the p eo p le’s support”], Tuoi Tre online, D ecem ber 16, 2005 D oan V an T hang, “A n ninh quoc gia boi canh toan cau hoa” [N ational security in the environm ent o f globalization], Nghien Cuu Q uoc Te, no 58, -2 0 , 100 S Frederik B alfour, “V ietn am ’s D efense W hite Paper Sheds Little Light on M ilitary,’’A gence F rance Presse, Septem ber 24, 1998 H oang A nh Tuan, “ K hai niem va viec su dung sue m anh quoc gia va sue m anh quan su quan he quoc te hien dai” [C onceptualizing and using national strength and m ilitary strength in contem porary international relations], Nghien Cuu Quoc Te, no 62 (9-2005) 10 Interview with Vo Van Kiet in Saigon Giai Phong, “Vi ca nuoc, TP HCM phai CO buoc dot pha” [For the entire country, Ho Chi Minh City has to have a breakout], Tuoi Tre online, September 7, 2006 II Le Xuan Tung, “Nhung dot pha tu ly luan ve kinh te thi truong o nuoc ta” [New breakthroughs in thinking and theory regarding market economics in our country], Tap Chi Cong San online, 65 (2004) 12 Nguyen Co Thach, “Dac diem tong quat cua tinh hinh the gioi 50 nam qua” [Special general characteristics of the global situation over the past fifty years], Tap Chi Nghien Cuu Quoc Te [ Journal of International Studies], So Dac Biet [special issue], no (September 1995) 13 Nguyen Dy Nien, “Nam bat thoi CO, vuot qua thach thuc thuc hien thang loi duong loi doi ngoai Dai Hoi X Cua Dang” [Grasp the opportunity, overcome the challenge of victoriously implementing the external policy of the Tenth Party Congress], Tap Chi Cong San online, 108 (2006) 14 Nguyen Phu Trong, “Doi moi tu ly luan vi su nghiep xay dung chu nghia xa hoi” [Renovate theoretical thinking for the mission of building socialism], Tap Chi Cong San online, 76 (2005) 15 N guyen Phu Trong, “X ay dung nen kinh te doc lap tu chu va chu dong boi nhap kinh te quoc te” [B uild an independent and sovereign econom y and proactively integrate into the international econom y], Tap Chi Cong San, (2001) 97 VIỆT NAM HỌC - KỶ YẾU HỘI THẢO QUỐC TẾ LÀN THỨ TƯ 16 Nguyen Tan Dung, “V e duong loi va chien luoc phat trien kinh te - xa hoi cua Dang tai Dai Hoi IX” [On the party policy line and strategy of socioeconomic development at the Ninth Party Congress], Tap Chi Cong San, (2001) 17 Nguyen Van Linh, “Cung CO hoa binh, de cao canh giac, phat huy sue manh tong hop de bao ve To Quoc” [Consolidate peace, raise vigilance, develop comprehensive strength to defend the Fatherland], Nhan Dan, December 15, 1989 18 Nguyen Van Tai, “Thoi CO va thach thuc doi voi sue manh quan su quoc gia Viet Nam gia nhap WTO” [Opportunities and challenges with regard to military strength when Vietnam joins the WTO], Tap Chi Cong San, 121 (2006) 19 Pham Quang Minh, “Vietnam and Korea in East Asian Pacific Regionalism”, paper delivered at the Fourth Annual Koret Conference, The Walter H Shorenstein AsiaPacific Research Center, Stanford University, March 2, 2012 20 Phan Doan Nam, “Ngoai giao Viet Nam sau 20 nam Doi Moi” [Vietnamese diplomacy after twenty years of doi moi], Tap Chi Cong San, 111 (2006) 21 Richard K Betts, “Is Strategy an Illusion?”, International Security 25, no (Autumn,2000): 5-50 22 Vo Trong Viet, “Bao ve vung chac chu quyen bien gioi, vung bien cua to quoc tinh hinh moi” [Solidly protect the Fatherland’s borders and maritime zones in the new situation], Tap Chi Cong San, 109-2006 23 Vu Khoan, “An ninh, phat trien va anh huong hoat dong doi ngoai [Security, development, and influence in external activities]”, Tap Chi Quan He Quoc Te [International Studies], No.2, December 1993, p.5 24 Vu Khoan, “Tich cuc va chu dong hoi nhap kinh te quoc te” [Energetically and proactively integrate into the international economy], Tap Chi Cong San, 119 (2006) 98 ... cau hoa” [National security in the environment o f globalization], Nghien Cuu Quoc Te, no 58, 9-2004, 100 90 VIETN AM ’S TRANSITION TO GLOBAL INTERGRATION Is Strategy Possible in the Globalization... region A brief look at China's efforts to formulate a strategy appropriate for the era of globalization may offer some insights into the connection between strategy, security, and diplomacy Avery... also had implications for Vietnam’s relations with China, since now national interest rather than socialist solidarity was the touchstone for making decisions about Vietnam’s national security