Combining hydrologic modeling and economic factors to optimize water management for a vietnamese wetland system

COMBINING HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ECONOMIC FACTORS TO OPTIMIZE WATER MANAGEMENT FOR A VIETNAMESE WETLAND SYSTEM By TANH T.N NGUYEN A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2014 © 2014 Tanh T N Nguyen To my wife Đoàn Thị Minh Nguyệt, son Nguyễn Đoàn Hữu Phúc, parents Trần Thị DuNguyễn Ngọc Hân, and parents-in-law Đoàn Hữu Lực-Từ Thị Bạch Tuyết ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I give special thanks to Dr Kati W Migliaccio for giving me the opportunity to study at the University of Florida Her coaching, advising, and support are lessons for my career and my life I always remember the time I contacted her from Vietnam in 2010 Without her, I would not have my today I would like to thank my PhD committee members for helping me sharpen my skills to complete this dissertation I really felt a little worried for selecting the hydroeconomic coupling topic for my study Dr Christopher J Martinez helped me much in modeling working with data limitation The advice of Dr Mark W Clark in wetland guided me to concentrate on wetland issues Support of Dr John J Sansalone led me to the right ways to achieve my study objectives Dr Edward A Evans made my life easier as working on environmental economics and happier for his leading events in Homestead, particularly Friday night karaoke that helped me recovered and have more energy to work for my dissertation I would like to thank Dr Dorota Z Haman She gave me the best chance for studying in a warm environment in the ABE department I am proud to be part of the Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering Finally, I would like to give special thanks to organizations supporting me very much for my study: An Giang University (Vietnam), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering and Tropical Research and Education Center (University of Florida, US) for PhD research assistantship, McNair PhD Bostick Scholarship, Tram Chim National Park Authorities (Vietnam), Vietnam’s PhD Fellowship Program, and World Bank Robert S McNamara PhD Research Fellowship TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 10 ABSTRACT 12 CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 14 Motivation 14 Objectives 17 Research Contribution 17 Reviews of Hydro-economic Modeling 18 Hydrologic Models 18 Rainfall 19 Evapotranspiration 20 Infiltration 24 Water routing simulation 25 Wetland Hydrologic Models 27 Wetland Hydro-Economic Modeling 31 Economic valuation 31 Economic analysis 34 Hydro-economic models 37 Model Sensitivity Analysis, Calibration and Validation 41 DEVELOPMENT OF A WETLAND HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR WATER MANAGEMENT CONSIDERING WATER ELEVATIONS TARGETS IN TRAM CHIM NATIONAL PARK, VIETNAM 43 Background 43 Methods 47 Study Site 47 Measured Data Evaluation 50 Model Development 51 Model design 51 Model evaluation 55 Scenario Optimization 57 Results and Discussions 57 Measured Data Assessment 57 Wetland Hydrologic Model Assessment 61 Optimization of Water Scenarios 63 Assessment of the Targets and Water Control Protocols 67 Summaries 68 MODELING DECISION-MAKING REGARDING WETLAND SERVICES FOR WETLAND MANAGEMENT IN TRAM CHIM NATIONAL PARK, VIETNAM 70 Problems 70 Methodology 76 Study Site 76 Conceptual Study Approach 78 Selection of stakeholders (step 1a) 78 Analysis of wetland management priorities (step 2) 79 Selection of key wetland management priorities (step 3) 79 Valuation of the key priorities (step 4) 80 Analysis of scenarios (step 5) 84 Initiation of decision conditions (step 1b) 84 Programming Languages 84 Results of Application of the Study Framework for Tram Chim National Park 84 Decision Groups and Wetland Priorities 84 Analysis of Wetland Management Priorities 87 Fish exploitation 87 Tourism 90 Management costs 91 Scenario Analysis 92 Summaries 94 COUPLING HYDROLOGIC AND ECONOMIC MODELING FOR WETLAND MANAGEMENT IN TRAM CHIM NATIONAL PARK, VIETNAM 96 Rationale 96 Methodologies 99 Study Site 99 Conceptual Study Approach 100 Model Design 101 Bridging HMTC and EMTC 105 Coupling Criteria and Scenario Analysis 105 Results 106 Bridging between HMTC and EMTC 106 HEMTC Limits and Boundaries 106 Optimal Scenarios for Four Wetland Zones 108 Summaries 112 CONCLUSIONS 113 LIST OF REFERENCES 115 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH 139 LIST OF TABLES Table page 1-1 Rainfall estimation methods 19 1-2 Evapotranspiration estimation methods with necessary parameters 22 1-3 Wetland surface/groundwater interaction models 28 1-4 Wetlands models with no groundwater component 29 1-5 An assessment of wetland hydrologic models 30 1-6 Use of economic analysis in assessing wetland goods and services 34 1-7 Descriptions of some hydro-economic models 40 2-1 Suggested monthly water elevations (m, above mean sea level) adapted from Van Ni et al (2006) 45 2-2 An assessment of wetland hydrologic models from literature 46 2-3 Properties of wetland hydrologic model components 52 2-4 Classification of water elevations used for modeling 60 2-5 Goodness-of-fit values for simulated water elevation for zones A1, A2, A4, and A5 61 2-6 Optimal wetland water elevations for zone A1 and MWBP targets for 20072011 (m) 64 2-7 Optimized wetland water elevations for zone A2 and MWBP targets for 20072011 (m) 64 2-8 Optimized wetland water elevations for zone A4 and MWBP targets for 20072011 (m) 65 2-9 Optimized wetland water elevations for zone A5 and MWBP targets for 20072011 (m) 66 3-1 Net income and tickets of fish exploitation per season (SeptemberDecember) in 2011 ($ unit: USD, N= 46) 88 3-2 Parameter estimates for zone A1 (n=194, AIC= 421.2) 90 3-3 Willingness to pay in addition to entrance fees (WTPa) by wetland zones in 2013 ($ unit: USD) 91 3-4 Annual management cost distribution for four wetland zones ($ unit: 1000 USD) 91 3-5 Comparisons of annual benefits by zones ($ unit: USD) 93 3-6 Relationship between WTP of fishing types and desired plant communities ($ unit: USD) 93 4-1 Properties of hydrologic model components 103 4-2 Design properties for economic model 104 4-3 Calendar for services and water control (X: active time) 107 4-4 Annual fish exploitation limits in wetland zones 108 4-5 Annual management costs, total net benefits, and Park’s net benefits regarding double optimization ($ unit: 1000 USD) 109 4-6 Redistribution of fishermen for double optimization at zone and Park levels ($ unit: 1000 USD) 110 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 1-1 Map of Tram Chim National Park with canals, wetland zones (A1, A2, A4, and A5), water gates (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, and C8), and berms 16 2-1 Map of Tram Chim National Park with canals, wetland zones (A1, A2, A4, and A5), water gates (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, and C8), and berms 45 2-2 Measured water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for A1 and A2 for 2007-2011 49 2-3 Measured water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for A4 and A5 for 2007-2011 49 2-4 Water balance diagram with water elevation (the model output) and inflows/outflows used in model development 52 2-5 Water elevation spectra in canal at C1 and C7 sites for 2007-2011 58 2-6 Water elevation spectra at HMC site for 2007-2011 (maximum, minimum, and average are daily water elevation maximum, minimum, and average of minimum and maximum, respectively) 59 2-7 Model of water lost and filled in canals outside the Park 61 2-8 Simulated water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for A1 and A2 for 2007-2011 62 2-9 Simulated water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for A4 and A5 for 2007-2011 62 3-1 Map of Tram Chim National Park, Vietnam, with wetland zones 77 3-2 Decision-making framework using MCDA based on net benefit 78 3-3 Scores for priorities of the decision-makers at Tram Chim National Park, using analytic hierarchy process and pairwise comparison (38 pairs from priorities for each person) 85 3-4 WTP of fishermen for preferred plant communities in 2011 (n=46) 89 4-1 Tram Chim National Park map with canals, water gates (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, and C8), berms, and wetland zones (A1, A2, A4, and A5), which was adapted from Nguyen & Migliaccio (2014) 99 4-2 Framework for coupling simulation of hydrologic and economic models to search for optimal scenarios using anneal scheduling 102 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AHP Analytic hierarchy process COS Chief of Office for Science of Tram Chim National Park CS Consumer surplus/access fees CVM Contingent valuation method DIFF Absolute deviation between observed and simulated water elevations EMTC Economic model for Tram Chim National Park ETp Potential evapotranspiration FC Full water control system using water gates HEM Hydro-economic model HMC Dong Thap Province Hydro-Metereological Center at Tram Chim station HMTC Hydrologic model for Tram Chim National Park MCDA Multi-criteria decision analysis NC More natural water control system using berms NSE Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency Park Tram Chim National Park PBIAS Percent bias PD Director of Tram Chim National Park PNB Net benefit for the Park only RMSE Root mean square error 10 ... solution for wetland restoration using CEA (Kirk et al., 2004) CEA was also applied to evaluate service costs for wastewater treatment of semi-natural wetlands compared to traditional wastewater treatment... canals, wetland zones (A1 , A2 , A4 , and A5 ), water gates (C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, C7, and C8), and berms 45 2-2 Measured water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for A1 ... Simulated water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for A1 and A2 for 2007-2011 62 2-9 Simulated water elevation medians with standard deviation and MWBP targets for