Assessing weather forecasting needs of small scale marine fishers for climate change adaptation and their willingness to pay for improved weather forecasting services

1.96‘ MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI THANH HIEN ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTING SERVICES: CASE STUDY OF VINH NGUYEN WARD, NHA TRANG CITY MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA – 2019 i MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI THANH HIEN ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTING SERVICES: CASE STUDY OF VINH NGUYEN WARD, NHA TRANG CITY MASTER THESIS Major: Topic allocation Decision Decision on establishing the Committee Defense date: Supervisors: Prof MARGRETHE AANESEN Dr HOANG PHUC LAM Chairman: (Full name) Faculty of Graduate Studies: (Full name) KHANH HOA – 2019 ii UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Assessing Weather Forecasting Needs Of Small-Scale Marine Fishers For Climate Change Adaptation And Their Willingness To Pay For Improved Weather Forecasting Services: Case Study Of Vinh Nguyen Ward, Nha Trang City” is my own work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted Khanh Hoa, Date 29 month year 2019 TRAN THI THANH HIEN iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT I would like to express the deepest appreciation to: - Nha Trang University and University of Tromso for giving me an opportunity to study the Norhed Master’s Program in Marine-based Ecosystem Management and Climate Change - All Lectures and Professors of Norhed Master’s Program and Nha Trang for generous contribution towards my academic sojourn - And Faculty and Staff/Department Economic and Management of Trang University for helping and giving best conditions me finish my thesis My special thanks go to Prof Margrethe Aanesen and Dr Hoang Phuc Lam for the continuous support of my Master study and research for your patience, motivation, enthusiasm, and immense knowledge Your guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family, cohort classmates, colleagues, fishers and People’s Committee of Vinh Nguyen ward for supporting me throughout writing this thesis Thank you all! Khanh Hoa, Date 29 month year 2019 TRAN THI THANH HIEN iv Contents UNDERTAKING iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT iv LIST OF SYMBOLS iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS v ABSTRACT CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Information 1.2 Research Objectives CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Impacts of climate change on the Small-Scale Marine fisheries 2.1.1 Marine ecosystem impacts 2.1.2 Impacts on Small-Scale Marine fishers livelihoods 2.2 Impacts of extreme weather events to fishing activities 2.4 Weather forecast and climate change adaptation 2.5 Vietnam weather forecast and transmitting system 2.6 Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate Willingness To Pay for weather and climate services 10 2.7 Conceptual framework 11 CHAPTER 14 MATERIALS AND METHODS 14 3.1 Study areas 14 3.2 Data Collection 14 3.3 Sampling Approach 15 i 3.4 Data Analysis 16 CHAPTER 18 MAIN FINDINGS AND RESULTS 18 4.1 Analysis of Meteorological Data and the damage from extreme weather events in Nha Trang city 18 4.1.1 Analysis of Nha Trang Meteorological Data 18 4.1.2 The damage from extreme weather events in Nha Trang 21 4.2 Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fishermen 26 4.2.1 Survey location 26 4.2.2 Gender 26 4.2.3 Age of respondents 27 4.2.4 Education: 28 4.2.5 Fishing experience 29 4.2.6 Residential duration 29 4.2.7 Fishing trip duration 30 4.2.8 Fishing Income 30 4.2.9 Household income: 31 4.3 Climate change and its impacts on fisher’s communities and fishing activities 33 4.3.1 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and change in weather conditions 33 4.3.2 Fisher’s perception about the impacts of climate change on their coastal regions 34 4.4 Fisher's weather information needs and how important they are 39 4.4.1 Frequency of receiving weather information 39 ii 4.4.2 Fisher’s weather and climate information needs and how important they are 40 4.4.3 The importance of weather information sources for fisher 42 4.4.4 Fisher’s perception about weather information to adapt to Climate Change 44 4.4.5 Fisher’s willingness to pay for the weather and climate services 44 CHAPTER 47 CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS 47 5.1 Conclusion 47 5.2 Recommendation 48 REFERENCES 49 APPENDICES 55 iii LIST OF SYMBOLS N Total number of respondents 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃 Variance of WTP 𝑠𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣.𝑊𝑇𝑃 Standard deviation of WTP 𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃 ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ Standard error of WTP ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ 𝑊𝑇𝑃 Mean of WTP ̅̅̅̅̅ 𝑎𝑔𝑒 Mean of age 𝑠𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣.𝑎𝑔𝑒 Standard deviation of age 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃.𝑎𝑔𝑒 Covariance of WTP and age 𝜌𝑊𝑇𝑃.𝑎𝑔𝑒 The correlation coefficient between WTP and age iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CC Climate Change CCS Coastal Communication System CSCNDPC Central Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control CVM Contingent Valuation Method EWS Early Warning System EPA Environmental Protection Agency IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KTV Khanh Hoa Television FAO The Food and Agriculture Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product LSCNDPC Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control NHMS National Hydro-Meteorological Service NCHMCF National Centre for Hydro-meteorological forecasting NCAER National Council of Applied Economic Research MORE Ministry of Natural Resource And Environment RHMC Regional hydro-meteorological centers SCRHMC South Center Regional Hydro-Meteorology Centre PHMC Provincial hydro-meteorological centers VND Vietnam dong VTV Vietnam Television WTP Willingness to pay v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Viet Nam weather forecast and transmitting in system 10 Figure 2.2 Conceptual framework of meteorological information forecast 13 Figure 3.1 Map showing the study areas in Vinh Nguyen ward 14 Figure 4.1 Annual Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather station 18 Figure 4.2 Ten-years Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather station 19 Figure 4.3 The change in average temperature of ten years period at Nha Trang 19 Figure 4.4 The Annual, Dry and Rainy season Rainfall at Nha Trang 20 Figure 4.5 Changing of Average annual rainfall of ten years at Nha Trang 20 Figure 4.6 Some extreme weather events at Nha Trang city in some years recently 23 Figure 4.7 Number and Damage of two main extreme weather events 25 Figure 4.9 Gender of responder 26 Figure 4.10 Histogram of Age 27 Figure 4.11 Distribution of education 28 Figure 4.12 Distribution of education on Island and Inland 29 Figure 4.13 Distribution of Fishing Income 31 Figure 4.14 Distribution of Household Income 32 Figure 4.15 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and weather conditions 33 Figure 4.16 Impacts of climate change on coastal regions 34 Figure 4.17 Impacts of climate change on fishing activities 36 Figure 4.18 Fisher’s experience about climate events in recent years 38 Figure 4.19 The importance of weather information sources for fisher 42 Figure 4.20 Frequency of receiving weather information sources 42 Figure 4.21 Weather information help fishers adapt to Climate Change 44 vi Appendix 1.11 Distribution of Fishing Income Million VND 10 20 30 Total Frequency 10 36 71 10 127 % 8% 28% 56% 8% 100% Appendix 1.12 Distribution of Household Income Million VND 10 20 30 Total Frequency 12 60 52 127 % 9.45% 47.24% 40.94% 2.36% 100% APPENDICES CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON FISHER’S COMMUNITIES AND FISHING ACTIVITIES Appendix 2.1 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and change in weather conditions Weather condition Worse Better I don't know Appendix 2.2 Impacts Frequency 115 % 91% 3% 6% of climate change on coastal regions Impacts of climate change on coastal regions Increase in coastal temperatures Shift in rainy season Increase extreme weather events Sea level rise Increase in Coastal floods Strongly Don’t agree know Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (3)+(4) 6% 4% 50% 40% 0% 90% 2% 5% 63% 30% 0% 93% 1% 3% 50% 41% 5% 91% 3% 19% 51% 25% 2% 76% 7% 8% 60% 24% 1% 83% 57 Total Strongly Don’t agree know Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (3)+(4) Increase in Coral bleaching 10% 20% 38% 23% 9% 61% Increase in Coastal erosion 4% 16% 56% 20% 4% 76% Loss of coastal habitats 8% 19% 43% 28% 2% 71% Reduce fish production 3% 24% 31% 40% 2% 71% Impacts of climate change on coastal regions Total Appendix 2.3 Fisher’s perception about the impacts of climate change on fishing activities Strongly Don’t Total Strongly Impacts of climate change on fishing activities Increase in severe weathers that will affect safety at seas Increase in infrastructure costs Increase needs for new transport routes Increase in the cost for postharvest facilities Disagree Disagree Agree agree know (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (3)+(4) 6% 1% 46% 46% 1% 92% 11% 19% 36% 33% 1% 69% 4% 27% 33% 35% 1% 68% 8% 17% 44% 30% 1% 74% 3% 8% 50% 36% 3% 86% 10% 5% 51% 31% 3% 82% Changes in fishers' migration patterns due to changes in the timing of fishing activities Changes in distribution and composition of species and habitats that will require changes in fishing practices 58 Appendix 2.4 Climate events in recent years Climate events Never Severe weathers Very hot weather Strong monsoon season Flood and land slide Drought Salt water intrusion Coastal erosion Rarely Sometimes Always Don't know 0% 7% 54% 39% 0% 4% 6% 30% 59% 1% 0% 14% 65% 21% 0% 1% 24% 57% 17% 1% 27% 20% 39% 11% 3% 24% 16% 41% 15% 4% 0% 7% 54% 39% 0% APPENDICES FISHER’S WEATHER INFORMATION NEEDS AND HOW IMPORTANT THEY ARE Appendix 3.1 Frequency of receiving weather information Type of information Weather and climate information Daily forecast Sort to medium range forecast Days forecast 10 days forecast Long and Seasonal Monthly forecast forecast Seasonal forecast Strong wind warning Strong waves Warning severe forecast weather events Tropical storm and depression Extreme climate information Intensive floods Salt intrusion information Drought information Don’t Always know Never Rarely Sometimes 0% 1% 7% 91% 1% 4% 21% 30% 43% 2% 8% 27% 39% 22% 4% 20% 40% 28% 3% 9% 19% 38% 31% 1% 11% 13% 28% 28% 19% 12% 3% 19% 35% 41% 2% 6% 23% 39% 30% 2% 2% 14% 35% 47% 2% 30% 38% 18% 6% 8% 27% 32% 20% 9% 12% 59 Appendix 3.2 Fisher’s weather and climate information needs and how important they are ((Indicate on a scale from – 6, with being “not important at all”, being “slightly important”, being “Important”, being “Fairly important”, being “very important”, and being “Don’t know”) Weather information Daily forecast Days forecast 10 days forecast Monthly forecast Seasonal forecast Height of tide Strong winds and Strong Monsoon forecast Strong waves forecast Tropical storm information Intensive floods Salt intrusion information Drought information (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (3)+(4)+(5) 1% 5% 0% 20% 17% 23% 2% 28% 14% 42% 38% 36% 17% 32% 35% 17% 18% 18% 20% 20% 7% 5% 10% 5% 60% 13% 43% 6% 5% 8% 0% 2% 0% 10% 11% 9% 97% 66% 86% 27% 33% 31% 4% 17% 20% 17% 43% 1% 79% 6% 2% 11% 31% 33% 29% 13% 17% 28% 26% 15% 24% 16% 15% 7% 19% 13% 23% 6% 9% 26% 46% 29% 4% 6% 6% 1% 4% 17% 20% 60% 83% 68% 24% 21% Appendix 3.3 The importance of weather information sources for fisher Weather information sources Not important Slightly Fairly Very Don’t at all important Important important important know National Television Chanel (VTV) Web of NCHMF Local Television Chanel (KTV) Web site of SCRHMC Radio Coastal communication system Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention Apps on your Cellphone By word of mouth (ICOM) 0% 4% 2% 19% 7% 10% 6% 15% 31% 21% 3% 26% 18% 26% 21% 21% 28% 13% 24% 27% 17% 17% 43% 15% 53% 28% 28% 1% 16% 12% 0% 0% 0% 20% 4% 24% 8% 1% 3% 20% 17% 9% 31% 15% 16% 13% 24% 19% 22% 44% 53% 6% 0% 1% Always Everyday Appendix 3.4 Frequency of receiving weather information sources Weather information sources National Television Chanel (VTV) Web of NCHMF Local Television Chanel (KTV) Web site of SCRHMC Radio Coastal communication system Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control Never Rarely Sometimes 0% 6% 5% 35% 12% 35% 2% 22% 19% 33% 5% 29% 8% 24% 24% 18% 31% 11% 60% 32% 15% 12% 33% 17% 30% 16% 38% 2% 19% 7% 6% 33% 35% 24% 1% 60 Weather information sources Apps on Cellphone By word of mouth (ICOM) Never Rarely Sometimes Always Everyday 1% 18% 14% 46% 20% 2% 3% 14% 61% 20% APPENDICES WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION Number of respondents WTP for weather and climate information Appendix 4.1 Willingness to pay for the weather and Number of climate information respondents % Yes 87 69% No 40 31% Total 127 100% Appendix 4.2 WTP’s Mean characteristics in VND Minimum 29, 842.52 0.00 Maximum Standard Deviation 120,000.00 Confidence Interval (95.0%) 28,673.98 Appendix 4.3 Distribution respondents of WTP, measured in VND WTP in Number of Cumulative VND/month respondents % 40 31.50% 10000 13 41.73% 20000 11 50.39% 30000 13 60.63% 40000 66.93% 50000 72.44% 60000 23 90.55% 70000 94.49% 80000 96.85% 90000 97.64% 100000 99.21% 120000 100.00% Appendix 4.4 Correlation between other factors and fishers’ WTP WTP and Coef Fishing income 0.128 House income 0.188 Gender 0.164 Age -0.125 61 24,807.22-34,877.82 Education Level 0.201 Residential duration -0.324 Fishing trip duration 0.073 Fishing experience -0.241 APPENDICES SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE The aim of this survey is to examine the awareness and knowledge of fisher about the important of weather forecast to mitigate climate change impacts I am Tran Thi Thanh Hien I am currently a master’s student at NhaTrang University, Vietnam I collect information (thesis data) for the fulfillment of my master’s degree course (Marine ecosystem management and climate change) I am kindly requesting you to take part in a brief interview by filling in the 11 questions in this survey SECTION 1: Knowledge about Climate Change (CC) and Impacts of CC on Smallscale Marine Fisher and their communities Do you think climate change are changing the weather conditions better or worse in your area?  CC is changing weather condition worse  CC is changing weather condition better  I don’t know Do you think CC causes the following impacts on coastal regions? Strongly Strongly Disagree Impacts Increase in coastal temperatures Shift in rainy season Increase extreme weather events Agree Disagree agree Don’t know                62 Sea level rise      Coastal floods      Coral bleaching      Coastal erosion                Loss of coastal habitats Reduce fish production Do you think CC causes the following impacts on fishing activities? The impacts of Climate Strongly Change on Fishing Disagree activities An Increase in severe weathers that will affect safety at seas Increase in infrastructure costs Increase needs for new transport routes Increase in the cost for post-harvest facilities Strongly Disagree Agree agree Don’t know                     Changes in fishers' migration patterns due to changes in the timing of fishing activities      Changes in distribution and composition of species and habitats that will require changes in fishing practices      Other:      63 Have you experienced the following CC events (outbreak) in recent years? Climate Change events Never Rarely Sometimes Always I don't know Severe weathers (storm,      Very hot weather      Strong monsoon season           Drought      Salt water intrusion                thunderstorm, lightning, hail) Heavy rainfall that causes flood and land slide Coastal erosion caused by high waves, storm surge or sea level rise Other:………………… SECTION 2: The importance of weather and CC forecast information and fisher’s needs How important is weather information and forecasts related to Climate Change Events? (Indicate your opinion on a scale from – 5, with being “not important at all”, being “slightly important”, being “Important”, being “Fairly important” and being “very important”.) Type of information I don’t know Daily forecast       Days forecast       64 10 days forecast       Monthly forecast       Seasonal forecast       Height of tide       Strong winds and Strong Monsoon forecast       Strong waves forecast       Tropical storm information and The Storm surge       Salt intrusion information       Drought information       Intensive floods       Other:       How often you get weather and Climate Change events forecast? The forecast information Never Rarely Sometimes Always I don’t know Daily forecast      Days forecast      10 days forecast      Monthly forecast      Seasonal forecast      Height of tide                Strong wind and Strong Monsoon forecast Strong waves forecast Tropical information Storm surge storm and The      Salt information intrusion      65 The forecast information Never I don’t know Rarely Sometimes Always Drought information      Intensive floods      Other:      SECTION 3: Meteorological services delivery From where and how often you receive daily weather forecast to fishing activities? The information forecast National Televison (VTV) Never  Chanel Rarely Sometimes   Always Everyday             Web site of SCRHMC      Radio                               Web of NCHMF Local Televison (KTV) Chanel Coastal Communication System Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention Apps on your Cellphone By word of mouth (ICOM radios) Other:……………… From where you receive severe weather information and or extreme CC forecast and how important is it? (Indicate your opinion on a scale from – 5, with being “not important at all”, being “slightly important”, being “Important”, being “Fairly important” and being “very important”.) The information forecast 66 I don't know       Web of NCHMF       Local Televison Chanel (KTV)       Web site of SCRHMC       Radio                                     National Televison (VTV) Chanel Coastal Communication System Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention Apps on your Cellphone By word of mouth (ICOM radios) Other:……………… SECTION 4: Climate Change Adaptation Do you think weather forecast and CC information help you to adapt to Climate Change? Strongly Climate Change Strongly Disagree adaptation Agree Disagree Minimize risks at sea and living place and where you live Better timing of agree Don’t know                     Fishing time Better planing of fishing region Improves preparation preventation severe weather the and for 67 Help to change                     fishing ways when neccessary Reduce impacts of climate events Raise awareness about Climate Change Other:……………… SECTION 5: The Willingness To Pay for improving the weather information We propose to improve the weather and CC events forecasts focusing on:  Improve the bulletins for fishers to become more detailed about winds, waves, currents, tides, etc …  Improve the transmission of bulletins to fishers by developing apps for cell phones that fisher can download to get information and that can send messages about severe weather 10 What is your maximum willingness to pay to improve the weather and Climate Change Information forecast as described above?  VND/month  10,000 VND/ month  20,000 VND/ month  30,000 VND/ month  40,000 VND/ month  50,000 VND/ month  60,000 VND/ month  70,000 VND/ month  80,000 VND/ month  90,000 VND/ month  100,000 VND/month  More than 100,000 VND/month How much …………… SECTION 6: Social-Economic Background 68 Question answer a Gender - Male/Female b Age in years Education Level (Primary, c secondary, high school or University degree) How long have you live d here? on average, how many days e f per a fishing trip? (days) Fishing experience (years) 11 What is your monthly fishing income?  million VND  10 million VND  20 million VND  30 million VND  40 million VND  50 million VND  100 million VND 12 What is your monthly household income?  million VND  10 million VND  20 million VND  30 million VND  40 million VND  50 million VND  100 million VND Appendix Figures from sampling activities 69 Face to face interview with leader communities Interview though convenience sampling 70 Have lunch with friendly residents on Island Tri Nguyen Island 71 ... ? ?Assessing Weather Forecasting Needs Of Small- Scale Marine Fishers For Climate Change Adaptation And Their Willingness To Pay For Improved Weather Forecasting Services: Case Study Of Vinh Nguyen...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI THANH HIEN ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF SMALL- SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO PAY. .. delivery of the weather services to meet the fisher community's needs to adapt to impacts of climate change, and evaluate fishers? ?? willingness to pay for improving the weather and climate information