This book is about how human mind make decisions and how we can make better decisions. Following is the high level summary. Sometimes we need to think through the options we have and sometimes we need to listen to our emotions. The secret is to know when to use these different styles of thought. Reason and feelings have important strengths and weakness. Different situations require different strategies. How we decide should depend on what we are deciding. Our reasoning is like the charioteer and our emotions are the horses. People have disparaged the emotional brain, blaming our feelings for our mistakes. Emotions are crucial part of decision making. A brain that cant feel cant make up its mind. Since Plato we have been assured that a perfectly rational world would be perfect world. This is not true. The reality of the brain is that, sometimes, rationality can lead us astray. Choking is one of the example of the havoc that can be caused by too much thought. Its an illustration of rationality gone awry. One of the problem with feeling is that even when they are accurate, they can still be hard to articulate. Instead of going with the option that feels the best, a person starts going with the option that sounds the best, even if its a bad idea. When we overthink at the wrong moment, we cut ourselves from the wisdom of our emotions. The worst decisions happen when the emotions are silent or overwhelming. In order to make the right decisions, the mind needs emotional input. The emotional input needs to exists in dialogue with the rational analysis. People in good mood are significantly better at solving hard problems that require insight than people who are cranky. This is because the brain areas associate with the executive control are preoccupied with managing the emotional life and its hard for the executive control to focus on the problem. The reason our emotions are intelligent is that theyve managed to turn mistakes into educational events. We are constantly benefitting from our experience, even though we are not conciosulsy aware of the benefits. Becoming an expert takes time and practice. Once weve developed expertise with requisite mistakes,its important to trust our emotions when making decisions in that domain. Its feelings that capture the wisdom of experience.
Jonah Lehrer proves once again that he's a master storyteller and one of the best guides to the practical lessons from new neuroscience." - CHRIS ANDERSON J O N A H LEHRER A U T H O R OF Proust Was a Neuroscientist $25.00 The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions S ince Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully de liberate, or we "blink" and go with our gut But as scientists break open the mind's black box with the latest tools of neurosci ence, they're discovering that this is not how the mind works Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and rea son—and the precise mix depends on the situation When buying a house, for exam ple, it's best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables But when we're picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray The trick is to determine when to use the differ ent parts of the brain, and to this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of "deciders"—from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players Lehrer shows how people are taking ad vantage of the new science to make better television shows, win more football games, and improve military intelligence His goal is to answer two questions that are of interest to just about anyone, from C E O s to firefight ers: H o w does the human mind make deci sions? And how can we make those decisions better? 0209 "An inviting, high-velocity ride through our most treasured mental act —deciding This is truly one of the most accessible and richly informed books on human choice It's a must-read for anyone in terested in the human mind and how cutting-edge research changes the way we think about our selves A marvelous success." - R E A D M O N T A G U E , Brown Foundation Professor of Neuroscience, Baylor College of Medicine JONAH L E H R E R is editor at large for Seed magazine and the author of Proust Was a Neuroscientist A graduate of Columbia University and a Rhodes scholar, Lehrer has worked in the lab of the Nobel Prizewinning neuroscientist Eric Kandel and has written for The New Yorker, the Washing ton Post, and the Boston Globe He edits the Mind Matters blog for Scientific Ameri can and writes his own highly regarded blog, The Frontal Cortex Jacket design by Martha Kennedy Jacket photograph © C Squared Studios/Getty H O U G H T O N MIFFLIN H A R C O U R T www.hmhbooks.com PRAISE FOR J o n a h Lehrer and H o w W e Decide "Jonah Lehrer is a brilliant young writer His clear and vivid writing—inci sive and thoughtful, yet sensitive and modest—is a special pleasure." -OLIVER SACKS "Cash or credit? Punt or go for first down? Deal or no deal? Life is filled with puzzling choices Reporting from the frontiers of neuroscience and armed with riveting case studies of how pilots, quarterbacks, and others act under fire, Jonah Lehrer presents a dazzlingly authoritative and accessible account of how we make decisions, what's happening in our heads as we so, and how we might all become better 'deciders.' Luckily, this one's a no-brainer: Read this book." _ VANDERBILT, T O M author of Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do (and What It Says About Us) "Over the past two decades, research in neuroscience and behavioral econom ics has revolutionized our understanding of human decision-making Jonah Lehrer brings it all together in this insightful and enjoyable book, giving readers the information they need to make the smartest decisions." -ANTONIO DAMASIO, author of Descartes' Error and Looking for Spinoza "Jonah Lehrer ingeniously weaves neuroscience, sports, war, psychology, and politics into a fascinating tale of human decision-making In the process, he makes us much wiser." _ p ^ N ARIELY author of Predictably Irrational "Should we go with instinct or analysis? The answer, Lehrer explains in this smart and delightfully readable book, is that it depends on the situation Knowing which method works best in which case is not just useful but fasci nating Lehrer proves once again that he's a master storyteller and one of the best guides to the practical lessons from new neuroscience." -CHRIS ANDERSON, editor in chief of Wired and author of The Long Tail $25.00 ISBN 788-0-618-62011-1 III 6-89695 5 00 HOW WE DECIDE Books by Jonah Lehrer Proust Was a How We Neuroscientist Decide How We DECIDE Jonah Lehrer HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT BOSTON ã NEW YORK Copyright â 2009 by Jonah Lehrer ALL RIGHTS RESERVED For information about permission to reproduce selections from this book, write to Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, Park Avenue South, New York, New York 10003 www.hmhbooks.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lehrer, Jonah How we decide / Jonah Lehrer p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN - - - 1 - 1 Decision making I Title BF448.L45 2009 153.8'3—dc22 2008036769 Printed in the United States of America Book design by Victoria Hartman DOC To my siblings, Eli, Rachel, and Leah Index A C C (anterior cingulated cortex), 38-40, 5 , 1 , 246, 248 Achievement gap, Addiction and dopamine, lack of dopamine receptors, to gambling, - to information, A D H D (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder), 1 , 1 Adolescents recklessness of, 1 , 1 reward programs for, i i n Aeschylus, The Oresteia, Aesthetics and morality, and Robertie on backgammon, 50-51 Airline operation Cockpit Resource Management in, 2-53-55 and crises Boeing 7 at London in, United Flight in, - , 133, 254-55 United Flight in, - decision-making in, xiii-xiv, 123-26, 127-32, 251, 253, - 5 2.58 and flight simulators, xiii-xiv, 252-53 safety level of, - , Airplane cockpit, - , Albright, Madeleine, Altruism, - See also Morality Ambiguity, need to accept, American College of Physicians, on back-pain imaging, 164 American Pain Society, on back-pain imaging, Amygdala, , airplane computers compared to, 256 and certainty, and expression of anger, - and framing effect, 1 and loss aversion, , vs prefrontal cortex, 1 and psychopaths, i n , of Romanian orphans, in top-down decisions, 203 Index Anchoring effect, - in auction experiment, Andreassen, Paul, - Anterior cingulated cortex ( A C Q , 38-40, 5 , 1 , 246, 248 Anticipatory clues, in hitting baseball, Apartment choice and blood-sugar level (experiment), Apple computers, and shuffle feature on iPods, - 6 Argument in process of decision making, - 9 , - in shopping, 9 - vs top-down solution (study of experts' opinions), - Argument in process of decision making, censored diversity as corrective to, - and lure of certainty, - 1 , by political partisans, - in pundits' predictions, - , 242-43 by religious believers/nonbelievers, 206-7 in Yom Kippur War, 1 - Ariely, Dan, , Aristotle, - Artificial intelligence (AI) birth of, and Deep Blue, - 4 and T D learning, 4 - , , , 51 Associations through overlapping ideas, , 131 in puzzle-solving, 1 Asymmetric paternalism, - Attachment, monkeys' need for, Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), 1 , 1 Auction experiment, - Audience research, through focus groups, - 1 , 3 Auerbach, Red, 66 Ausubel, Lawrence, - Autism, - , \ 289 Aviation, commercial See Airline operation Aviation deaths, from decisions in cockpit, Backgammon, - , 44 and Robertie, - Back pain, - , Bacon, Francis, 1 Balloun, Joe, - Bar-Joseph, Uri, Baron-Cohen, Simon, Bartels, Larry, - Barto, Andrew, n Baseball, hitting in, - Basketball "hot hand" in, - , 6 - and Philadelphia 76ers (1980s), 62-64 Bates, Edward, Baumeister, Roy, Bechara, Antoine, , 9 Beilock, Sian, - Belichick, Bill, Bell Curve, The (Herrnstein and Murray), Belman, Felice, , Benartzi, Shlomo, 7 , Berlin, Isaiah, Betsch, Tilmann, Binger, Michael, - 2 , 2 , 2 , 225-29, 229-31, 232, 238-39, 240-41, 247, 250 Bird, Larry, 64 Blackjack, 2 - Blair, James, Bledsoe, Drew, - Bohr, Niels, on experts, Bottomless-bowls experiment, Bradshaw, Terry, Brady, Tom, - , - , - , , 5 , 61, 250 Brain, human and altruism, - areas of amygdala, , (see also Amygdala) 290 Brain, human (cont.) anterior cingulated cortex (ACC), 38-40, 55, 1 , 246, 248 hypothalamus, insula, 86, , , 200, , 202, , , medial frontal gyrus, 7 - mirror neurons, , , nucleus accumbens (NAcc), - , 89, 1 , 0 , , 202-3, 243,248 posterior cingulate, 7 - prefrontal cortex, 9 - 0 , 1 , 1 - (see also Prefrontal cortex) spindle neurons, , 5 superior temporal sulcus, 177-78, 183 thalamus, , i o i n , ventral caudate, 68 and autism, - and child abuse, and decision-making, - , - 9 (see also Decision-mak ing) efficiency of, evolution of, - , 1 maturity as recapitulating, 113-14 frontal-lobe lobotomy on, 1 - investigations of, x v and morality, 7 - of Romanian orphans, and scissors analogy, xvii shortcomings of, as studied through flaws, See also Mind, human Brain damage in case of Mary, - and emotion, - in case of Elliot, - and Iowa Gambling Task, from lack of love, and loss aversion, , 80 and puzzles, 1 Brain-imaging technology, xvii / Index Brock, Timothy, - Brown, Troy, 4, - , , Bush, George W., - "Candle problem," 1 - Candy-scoop experiment, - Card-playing experiment (Iowa Gambling Task), - , Carragee, Eugene, Car-shopping, 23 - Carter, Jimmy, 204 Casting, for soap opera, 2 - Ceausescu, Nicolae, Certainty bias for, about Israel's security before Yom Kippur War, , lure of, - 1 , , - , 247 partisan, pundits' error of, - Cervantes, Miguel de, on proverbs, 49 Charity, and sympathy, - Cheeks, Maurice, Chess and Deep Blue, - 4 , 50 and Garry Kasparov, , 4 , , 54 vs poker, 2 and Bill Robertie, , 50 Chesterton, G K , Child abuse, in Romanian orphanages, - sympathy flawed as result of, 193-94 "Choking," - , i ~ by Renee Fleming, - by Jean Van de Velde, - Civilization, Freudian view of, Clinton, Bill, and 2008 N e w Hampshire primary endorse ment, - Clinton, Hillary, Coca-Cola, and placebo effect, Cockpit Resource Management (CRM), - in hospitals, 5 Index Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), 24 2n Cognitive dissonance, See also Argument in process of decision-making, censored Cognitive psychology, - Cohen, Jonathan, - Commuting, and weighting mistake, 145 Competing hypotheses, need to consider, See also at Argument Computer achievements of, 2 in airplane cockpit, , and pilot intervention, Deep Blue, - 4 , 50 mind as, , , , - 4 and mind's shortcomings, and mind's areas of superiority, , 229 seen as "intentional agent," TD-Gammon, 4 - , , 50, and ultimatum game, Comte, Auguste, 1 Concord Monitor, 2008 primary endorsement by, - Consciousness, and thalamus, Conscious thoughts, vs good decision-making, Consumer decisions, and informa tion, See also Shopping Consumer Reports, - , Corpus callosum, severing of, Correlation, by dopamine neurons, 37 Cost-benefit analysis as absent in consumer choice, in decision-making without emotion, Costco warehouse, 2 Counselors, predictions of student success by (study), - Counterintuitive idea in airliner emergency, on value of information, \ 291 Credit cards, - , 89, - , and adjustable-rate mortgages, 88 and shopping brain, 2 Cricket batters, Crisis, decision-making in in airliner flights, - , 3 , » - 2.57 simulation of, xi-xiv, - in Persian Gulf War missile attack, 30-34, 55-5^ Cult of Reason (French Revolution), 11 Cunningham, Randall, "Cutting cure," 1 Damasio, Antonio, - , - , 79-80, Data See Information Dayan, Moshe, Days of Our Lives (soap opera), , 20, Deal or No Deal, - , - , 4 Decision-making on airline flights, xiii-xiv, - , - , 251, 253, 254-55, 258 (see also Airline operation) and battle simulations, 5 and blood-sugar level (apartment choice experiment), and brain, - , - 9 (see also Brain, human; Prefrontal cortex) conflicting claims in, - 9 , 203-4 in shopping, 9 - vs top-down solution (study of experts' opinions), - conflicting claims censored in diversity as corrective to, - and lure of certainty, - 1 , 247 by political partisans, - in pundits' predictions, - , 242-43 by religious believers and nonbelievers, - in Yom Kippur War, 1 - 2^2 Decision-making (cont.) conscious thoughts interfering with, and credit cards, - in Deal or No Deal, - , - emotions in, - , , , , (see also Emotions; Instinct; Intuition; Temptation) and executive control, 1 - with executive dysfunction, - and executives' information, and experience, , in gambling game, - guidelines for, 4 - improvement of, , in aviation, - James on, - loss aversion in, - 7 , , (see also Loss aversion) mental flexibility in, moral, 6 , - , - (see also Morality) as mystery, and past vs present problems, Plato on, - and pluralistic brain, xvi in prairie fire, - , 9 , 1 and prediction, - by psychopaths, about radar signal (Operation Desert Storm), - and rationality, xv, 9, , , (see also Rationality) reference point in, science of, , - 4 by soap opera director, - in sports and games baseball (hitter), - basketball, 66 cricket, football (quarterback), - , 9, 27 poker, 2 - , 2 - , 2 - , 239 on stock market, - , 7 - , 239-40 in Stroop task, 1 / Index under temptation, - unconscious, (see also Unconscious decision-making) vigilance in, See also Problem-solving; Shopping Deep Blue, - 4 , 50 Delayed gratification, experiment on and significance of, 1 - "Deliberate calm," Deliberation, 3 "choking" from, by Van de Velde, in taste test, See also Decision-making; Rationality DeLillo, Don, quoted, ix Descartes, René, xv, - 1 , Descartes' Error (Damasio), Devil's advocate, Dictator game, Dijksterhuis, A p , 4 , - , 4 , 245 Discipline, in airliner crisis, Dissonant data experts' response to, 209 See also Argument in process of decision-making, censored Diversity of airplane autopilot systems, 256 of brain regions, unjustified certainty dispelled by, 217-18 of viewpoints ( C R M ) , , 5 - Dodd, Chris, Dodge, Wag, - , 99, " , " , 119, 127, 133 Dopamine agonists, and gambling addiction, - Dopamine neurons, - and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), - and emotions, , - and expertise, , 209 and learning from errors, and Parkinson's disease, , - , 61, 184 Index in Persian Gulf War missile detection, 5 and prediction, , - , 60 and random oscillations of Wall Street, 69 and random processes vs "hot hand," - and schizophrenia, and stock market, 67 subtle pattern detection by, 48 and T D learning, , training of needed, 49 wisdom of, Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), ioon Dostoevsky, Fyodor, on God and morality, Dweck, Carol, - Economics and mental accounting, and rational-choice theory, 0 Education, learning from mistakes in, 51-54 Elliot (patient), - Elway, John, Emergency decision-making in airliner flights, - , 3 , , * - , 2-57 simulation of, xi-xiv, - in Persian Gulf War missile attack, 30-34, 55-56 Emotions (feelings), - in airliner crisis, - Aristotle on regulation of, and complexity, in decision-making, - , , and brain anatomy, xv, and evolution, , - and football quarterback, and dopamine, , - errors of, 56 and executive dysfunction, in gambling game, - Hume on, - immediate gains overvalued by, , 91 \ 293 in Iowa Gambling Task (card-play ing experiment), - , and irrationality, , , seen as irrational, (see also Plato) logic of, and mistaken predictions, and morality, - in personal scenarios, and psychopaths, and past vs present problems, and pattern recognition, - and preferences, and prefrontal cortex, of psychopaths, - , vs autistics, i n vs quantifiable facts, and reason, 9, , , and cognitive psychology, - in concert with one another, , , 239-40, 258 in delayed-gratification experi ment, 1 - influential thinkers' applications of, 1 - James on, - Plato on, - , 1 (see also Plato) in poker and investing, - and prefrontal cortex as executive, i n , 1 and simplicity vs complexity, 237-38 in temptation, 90 reflection on needed, regulation of, and Romanian orphans, in shopping experiments, , , 235 as summary of data, in television focus group, - 1 and temptation, 90 and unconscious, wisdom of, empirical predictions at root of, 41 invisible analysis in, Energy-drink experiment, - Enlightenment, on morality, Error-related negativity, Errors, and wisdom of emotions, Erving, Julius, Evolution and morality, - , and role of emotion, and brain, - , , 1 and sympathy, - Executive control, n - in problem solving, 1 Executive dysfunction, - Expectation adjustment of, and dopamine neurons, - , power of, and wine-tasting experiment, 148-49 Experts Bohr on, and emotions, and hedgehog- vs fox-strategy, 241-42 intuition of, 54 prediction record of (study), 207-10 Fairness, and ultimatum game, 181-82 Fama, Eugene, Faulk, Marshall, Favre, Brett, Fear of failure, - Feedback dials, for focus groups, , 110 "Fellow-feeling," Adam Smith on, 182 Fictive-error learning, - Financial bubbles, - , 69 Nasdaq bubble of late 9 s , 68 Financial markets, - Fire, in Montana gulch, - , 9 , 116 Fitch, Dennis, 2 - Fleming, Renee, - , Flight simulators, - / Index emergency decision-making through, xi-xiv Focus group, television, - 1 , 3 (k) accounts, and asymmetric paternalism, - Framing effect, and prefrontal cortex, Frank (contestant on Dutch Deal or No Deal), ~ , M Frank, Robert, Franklin, Benjamin, Freeman, Walter, 1 French Revolution, Cult of Reason in, 1 Freud, Sigmund, n - , Friends (sitcom), Frontal cortex, See also Prefrontal cortex Frontal-lobe lobotomy, 1 - Fusiform face area (FFA), Gacy, John Wayne, - , Gambler's fallacy, 66n Gambling addiction, - Gambling game, - George, Carol, Gilovich, Thomas, - , 64, 66, 66n Glenn, Terry, - Gloucester, H M S (British destroyer), 30-32 Gold, Jamie, 2 , 2 , Golf and holistic cue word, i n putting, Van de Velde's choking, - Gonen, Shmuel, Goodwin, Doris Kearns, Gorbachev, Mikhail, 208 Goya, Francisco, Graden, Brian, Graduate Record Examination (GRE), and performance-anxi ety experiment, Greene, Joshua, - 7 , GreenPath, Grossman, Dave, - Guidelines for decision-making, 244-50 Index Haidt, Jonathan, , , - Happiness Hypothesis, The (Haidt), 81 Harlow, Harry, 189-9z Haynes, A l , - , , - 5 "Hedgehog and the Fox, The" (Berlin), Heilman, Kenneth, Hellman, William, 98 Hill Street Blues, Holistic cue word, i n Hormonal deficiencies, in Romanian orphans, Hubris, 209 Huckabee, Mike, Hume, David, - , Hypothalamus, 38 Ideology, justification of, 206 Imagination, and moral emotions, 182 Impulse control, in delayed-gratification experiment, 1 - Information brain's inability to dismiss, overabundance of, , , 165 and back pain, , , in investment experiment, 158-59 Insight generation of, into puzzles, 1 - Instinct and airliner crisis, , , and blood-sugar level (apartment choice experiment), expertise of, 209 James on, obsolete, 4 in poker, and preferences (jam-tasting experiment), See also Emotions Insula (brain region) and certainty, and placebo effect, \ 295 and shopping, 200, , , and credit cards, 86, , 2 Intellectual diversity, benefits of, Introspection, Intuition, xvi, 3 , and blood-sugar level (apartment choice experiment), of experts, 54 in poker, and standardized test, training for, 49 Investment experiments on emotion and rational analysis, 239-40 with fictive-error learning, - on information access, - on loss aversion, - See also Stock market Iowa Gambling Task (card-playing experiment), - , iPods, shuffle feature of, - 6 Iraq, Operation Desert Storm against, *8-34> 5 - Irrelevant information, and anchoring effect, Israel Research and Political Planning Center of, , and Yom Kippur War, 1 - Jackson, M a r y (case example), - Jam, strawberry (taste test for), 141-43, 145, 165,235 James, William, Jefferson, Thomas, 1 Jimenez, Ralph, , , Jobs, Steve, 66 Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), back-pain articles in, , - Jung-Beeman, Mark, 1 - , Kahneman, Daniel, , , n Kanner, Leo, Kant, Immanuel, 1 , , Kasparov, Garry, , 4 , , 54 Keltner, Dacher, 296 / Kennedy, Rosemary, Kerry, John, - Killing psychopaths' reaction to, (see also Psychopaths) and U.S soldiers in battle, - Klein, Gary, 3 Klinestiver, Ann, - Knutson, Brian, 200, 2 Krueger, Alan, Kuwait, liberation of (Operation Desert Storm), - , 55—56 Laibson, David, 90 L A Poker Classic, Lazarsfeld, Paul, Learning fictive-error, - from mistakes, - , 5 , T D (temporal difference), 4 - , 49, 50, LeDoux, Joseph, , 99 Leibniz, Gottfried, Leinart, Matt, Leucotomy, prefrontal, 1 , Lie detectors, , Limbic system, amygdala in, debate within, 9 and Save More Tomorrow plan, and temptation, 90 transcending of, 1 Lincoln, Abraham, cabinet of, L o , Andrew, Lobotomy, frontal-lobe, 1 - Loewenstein, George, - , 86, , 200, 2 London blitz, and missile strike points, 66 Loneliness, in monkey colony, - Loss aversion, - 7 , avoidance of, in Deal or No Deal, - and depreciating stocks, - and emotions, in examples of disease outbreak, 75-76 Index and framing effect, neurological impairment as avoiding, , 80 in poker, and premium equity puzzle, 7 - and simple investment game, - Loss frame, Louis IX (king of France), and backgammon, 43 Love, monkeys' need for, Mackey, Sean, Maclean, Norman, 94 MaCurdy, Thomas, 7 Madden, John, "Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus T w o , The" (Miller), Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and back pain, - , Main, Mary, Malone, Moses, Mann Gulch river valley fire, - , 99, 1 Manning, Peyton, Marino, Dan, Markowitz, Harry, Marshall, S.L.A., , Marshmallow test (delayed gratifica tion), 1 - Martino, Benedetto de, , Mary Tyler Moore Show, The, Math problems, and mysteries, 230-31 McCain, John, , McGill University, A D H D research in, 1 Medea, desire vs reason in, Medial frontal gyrus, 7 - Meir, Golda, 2 , Melodrama, and Stein, Memory, working, , , , 151 Memory-task-and-self-control experiment, - Mental accounting, - 5 Metacognition (thinking about thinking), , - , - Index Miller, Earl, 1 - Miller, George, Milner, Peter, - Mind, human, xiv as computer, and scissors analogy, xvii See also Brain, human Mind, theory of extended to computers, and sympathy, Minsky, Marvin, , n Mirror neurons, , , Mischel, Walter, 1 - Mistakes learning from, - , 5 , from rational methods, , and wisdom of emotions, M I T Executive Education Program, and auction experiment, M I T Sloan School of Management, students at, Moniz, Antonio Egas, 1 prefrontal leucotomy, 1 , Monkey experiments on need for attachment, - on sympathy, Montague, Read, , , , 69 Montana, Joe, Monte Carlo fallacy, 66n Mood and prefrontal cortex, and problem-solving, of schizophrenics, Morality, 6 , and emotions, - in personal scenarios, and psychopaths, moral decisions, - and brain, 7 and trolley scenarios, - and warfare, - and psychopaths, , and religion, - and sympathy, , - Mortgages, subprime, - Motion sickness, - Movie-ticket-loss experiment, - \ 297 M R I (magnetic resonance imaging), and back pain, - , Mystery and math problems, - poker as, Narrowing, perceptual, - 9 National Institute of Mental Health, A D H D research in, 1 National Transportation Safety Board on air fatality rate, - on Flight performance, Nature Neuroscience, game-playing computer report in, Neanderthals, brain of, 0 Nebraska Medical Center, C R M in, *55 Negativity bias, Neural pluralism, Neuroscience, , , New England Journal of Medicine, back-pain articles in, , N e w England Patriots passing formation of, - in 0 Super Bowl, - , - , N e w Hampshire presidential primary endorsement (2008), - N e w York City, A D H D research in, 113 Nichomachean Ethics, The (Aris totle), - Nietzsche, Friedrich, Nixon, Richard, 204 Novel problems, reason required for, 246-47 Nucleus accumbens (NAcc), , 1 in adolescents, 1 and certainty, and consumer choice, 0 , , 202, 202-3 and dopamine, - , 200 and emotions, and temptation, 89 Obama, Barack, Odean, Terrance, Olds, James, - 298 Operation Desert Storm, 2.8-34, 55-56 Orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), ioon and emotion, , , , and experience of power, of Romanian orphans, in top-down decisions, Oresteia, The (Aeschylus), Orphans, in Romanian orphanages, 192-93 Overcompensation, by split-brain patient, 1 Ovid, Oxytocin, Pain in back, - , and placebo effect, - Palmer, Herman, - , - 8 , 90, 92 Panic as perceptual narrowing, - 9 and prairie fire, 98 prevention of (airliner crisis), Parker, Robert, Parkinson's disease, - , , and dopamine, Pasteur, Louis, 1 Paternalism, asymmetric, - Pattern recognition by dopamine neurons, 48 by emotions, - illusory instances of, 65 in poker, 2 Perceptual narrowing, - 9 Performance anxiety, experiment on, 139-40 Persian Gulf War, - , 5 - Personality, and brain damage, - Personal moral situation, 7 , , 179 Philadelphia 76ers (early s ) , 62-64 Physics, and card-playing (Binger), 221 Placebo effect, - Plato, xv, - , / Index on emotion, , , 89 and Freud, 1 vs William James, 26 as nonexperimental, and O F C (orbitofrontal cortex), and rationality (reason), xv, 9, , H , 134 on rationality as logic, 0 Pluralism, neural, Poker, 2 - , - as mystery, rational analysis plus emotion in, 231-32 Texas hold'em, , 2 - World Series of Poker, 2 , 2 , 226, 243 and Binger, , 2 , 2 , , 240-41, 243 Politics, stubbornness of partisan allegiance in, 204 Post, Thierry, Posterior cingulate, 7 - Poster-rating experiment, - 4 , 235-36 Powell, Colin, Prediction in A I temporal-difference learning, - , 50 and decision-making, - and dopamine neurons, , - , 60 pundits' record on, - , 241-42 of students' success (study), - Prediction-error signal, Prediction neurons, - Predmore, Steven, Preferences explanation of, , and price (wine-tasting experi ment), Prefrontal cortex, 9 - 1 , n - , 133,241 and A D H D , 1 and argument, 9 cases of damage to, , i n and "choking," Index and consumer preferences, dangerous reliance on, emotions monitored by, n i , 1 and framing effect, in impulse control, 1 as information filter, 206 as late-maturing, 1 leucotomy, 1 , and mood, , in partisan political judgments, 205 placebo effect in, in poker, prefrontal lobotomy, 1 - and price (wine-judging experi ment), in problem-solving, 1 - , , in airliner crisis,i32 recognition of insight by, and rationality, 0 - 1 , in shopping process, 200, shortcomings of, 5 - , - 6 , 244 and blood-sugar level, - and complexity, 6 , , , 245 and excess information, , 160, 164 and mental accounting, 5 and unnecessary information, and temptation, 89, 90 Prelec, Drazen, 86 Premium equity puzzle, 7 - Pride, Mike, , , - Primary endorsement in N e w Hampshire (2008), - Principles of Psychology, The (James), 26 Problem-solving, 1 in airliner crisis, - and mood, and prefrontal cortex, in puzzles, 1 - restructuring phase of, See also Decision-making Psychopath, The: Emotion and the \ 299 Brain (Blair, Mitchell, and Blair), Psychopaths, - and autism, i n and emotions, - , and study of moral emotions, 184 and isolated monkeys, - Pundits See Experts Puzzle-energy experiment, - Quarterbacks (football), decision making by, - , in 0 Super Bowl, - , - , Randomness and dopamine neurons, 64 of stock market, - Rangel, Antonio, Rationality (reason), 0 Aristotle on, - assumption of, x v and brain anatomy, in car-shopping experiment, 233-34 and complexity, 4 - oversimplification through, and consumer choice, in decision-making (airliner crisis), 131 Descartes on, - 1 and emotion, 9, , , and cognitive psychology, - in concert with one another, , 231, 239-40, 258 in delayed-gratification experi ment, 1 - influential thinkers' applications of, 1 - James on, - Plato on, - , 1 [see also Plato) in poker and investing, - and prefrontal cortex as executive, i n , 1 and simplicity vs complexity, 2-37-38 300 / Rationality (cont.) in temptation, 90 faith in, 3 - Hume on, - as justification for preformed beliefs, , , - and math, mishaps of, , , , , 142-43, 155 and anchoring effect, - "choking," - and disadvantageous informa tion, - , - 6 and mental accounting, - 5 in self-analysis, - and self-control, - and morality, - , - , 177, 186 myth of, xvii and novelty, Plato on, xv, 9, , 1 , and power of brain, praise of, 5 and prefrontal cortex, 0 - 1 , (see also Prefrontal cortex) Rationalization, - , - Reagan, Ronald, , Real estate shopping, 4 - Records, William, - , Redmond, J R., Reinforcement learning, , n Religion, and morality, - Research, on audience response (focus groups), - 1 Richter, Ari, Riley, Michael, - , 5 - , 60 Rizzolati, Giacomo, Robertie, Bill, - , 54 Roberts, Jeff, xvi, , , Romania, orphaned children in, Rumsey, Walter, 98 Sadat, Anwar, 2 , Sadism of John Wayne Gacy, , See also Psychopaths Sainsbury, Nondumiso, - Index St Louis Rams, in 0 Super Bowl, 1-4, 7-8, 27 Sallee, Robert, Sarno, John, Save More Tomorrow plan, Schizophrenia and dopamine neurons, and prefrontal leucotomy, 1 Schultz, Wolfram, - , , 60 Science and card-playing (Binger), 2 of decision-making, , - 4 Science (publication), car-shopping experiment in, Scissors, as metaphor for brain, xvii Seinfeld, , i n Self-analysis in jam-tasting experiment, - and self-awareness (poster-judging experiment), - 4 , 2.3 5—36 and wisdom, Self-consciousness, and "choking," 136 Self-control and memory-task experiment, 150-51 and prefrontal cortex, - and blood-sugar levels, See also Temptation Self-delusion, Self-overhearing, Seward, William, Sex-with-sibling scenario, - Shiv, Baba, - Shopping "complexity score" in, for cooking accessories, - and credit cards, 2 - (see also Credit cards) experiments on, 9 - on cars, - for furniture, for groceries, 4 breakfast cereal, 9 for real estate, 4 - stores' manipulation of, - Shoven, John, 7 Index Sibling-sex scenario, - Simester, Duncan, 86 Simon, Herbert, xvii, Simon-Tov, Benjamin, Simple problems, reason required for, 244 Six-Day War ( ) , Sloan, Alfred P., Slot machines, - Slovic, Paul, - 8 Smith, Adam, Smith, Alex, Soap opera, - , 54 Social isolation, in Harlow's monkey experiments, - Socrates, Sorensen, Ted, Spindle neurons, 40, 5 Split-brain patients, - n Stanton, Frank, Statistics, and moral emotions, 8 Steele, Claude, - Stein, Herb, - , 54 Stereotype threat, - Stock market and mutual funds, 69 and premium equity puzzle, 7 78 randomness of, 67 See also Investment experiments Strand, Kathleen, Strawberry jam, taste test(s) for, 141-43, 145, 165,235 Stroop task, 1 - Subprime mortgages, - Super Bowl (2002), - , - , Superior temporal sulcus, 7 - , 183 Surprise and dopamine neurons, 60, and slot machines, Sutton, Rich, 45n Sympathy, - , - and altruism, - and isolation, among monkeys, morality based on, , - \ 301 and statistics vs knowledge of particular case, - 8 Taste test, on strawberry jam, 141-43, 145, 165,235 T D (temporal difference) learning, 44-46, 49-50, 51 Team of Rivals (Goodwin), Television, focus groups on programs of, - n Temptation, - , cognition skills against (delayedgratification experiment), 1 and memory task, and subprime mortgages, 88 Teresa, Mother, 8 Tesauro, Gerald, , n , 49 Tetlock, Philip, - , - Texas hold'em, , 2 - probabilities of hands in, 2 See also Poker Thalamus, and frontal lobe lobotomy, 1 Thaler, Richard, 7 , , - 5 Theory of mind extended to computers, and sympathy, Theory of Moral Sentiments, The (Smith), Thinking about thinking (metacognition), , - , - Toney, Andrew, , 64 Top-down thinking, , , 208-9 Trolley-tragedy choice scenarios, 176-78 Tversky, Amos, - , 66, Ultimatum game, , - , 186 and dictator game, Uncertainty from conflicting inclinations in brain, 203 need to embrace, , in poker, 2 - , 2 , resolution of, 302 / Index Unconscious decision-making, of Binger in poker game, in car-shopping experiment, 3 and emotions, in evaluation of radar signal, in moral choice, in poster-choosing experiment, 23 in shopping for groceries, 9 as subliminal calculations, United Nations game, i n Unpredictable events, Van de Velde, Jean, - , , Vasopressin, Ventral caudate, 68 Ventral striatum, Vinatieri, Adam, Wager, Tor, Wall Street, - See also Investment experiments; Stock market Wansink, Brian, Warfare, soldiers desensitized to killing in, - Warner, Kurt, Wasicka, Paul, 2 - , Watts, James, 1 Wealth of Nations, The (Smith), Weighting mistake, in real-estate purchase, 4 - Weis, Charlie, Westen, Drew, 204 West Virginia, reward program for students in, i i n Wilkinson, Alec, - Wilson, Geordie, Wilson, Timothy, , , , 235-36 Wine-tasting experiment, - in absence of price information, 149-50 Wonderlic intelligence test, 6, 7, Working memory, in case example of brain tumor, 103 and prefrontal cortex, problem-solving abilities of, World Series of Poker, 2 , 2 , 2 , 243 and Binger, , 2 , 2 - , , - , 243 World War II London blitz in, 66n weapons unfired in, Yom Kippur War, 1 - Young, Vince, Young Men and Fire (Maclean), 94 Zeira, Eli, 2 , , - ... 6-89695 5 00 HOW WE DECIDE Books by Jonah Lehrer Proust Was a How We Neuroscientist Decide How We DECIDE Jonah Lehrer HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT BOSTON • NEW YORK Copyright © 2009 by Jonah Lehrer ALL... Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, Park Avenue South, New York, New York 10003 www.hmhbooks.com Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lehrer, Jonah How we decide / Jonah. .. huddles in conversa tion with Bill Belichick, the Patriots' head coach, and Charlie Weis, the offensive coordinator "It was a ten-second conversa tion," Weis remembered later "What we said is we would