The role of international agreements in environmental conservation and its implication to vietnam

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY FACULITY OF ECONOMIC YASUKATA FUKAHORI THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION AND ITS IMPLICATION TO VIETNAM Major: Political Economy Code: 62.31.01.01 DOCTORAL PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS Advisor: Associated Professor, Doctor Phi Manh Hong Doctor Phung Xuan Nha HaNoi, 2008 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI COLLEGE OF ECONOMIC YASUKATA FUKAHORI THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION AND ITS IMPLICATION TO VIETNAM Major: Political Economy Code: 62.31.01.01 DOCTORAL PHILOSOPHY OF ECONOMICS Advisor: Associated Professor, Doctor Phi Manh Hong Doctor Phung Xuan Nha HaNoi, 2008 CONTENTS Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… Chapter I: Economic Theories Related to Environmental Conservation……… 1.1 Theories of Common Pool Resources … 1.2 Theories of Collective Actions and Intern 1.3 Coase Theorem ………………………… 1.4 Game Theory …………………………… 1.5 Other Economic Theories ……………… 1.6 Application of Economic Theories to En 1.6.1 Sustainability and Budget Line – Case St 1.6.2 Game theory scenarios and possible c international agreements ……………… 1.7 Summary of Results …………………… 1.8 Recommendations ……………………… Chapter II: Environmental Conservation in Relation with Trade, ODA and Sustainable Development ………………………………………… …………… 2.1 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.3 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 Trade Agreements and Environmental Iss The New Politics of Trade ……………… Trade under Commodity Agreements and WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism an Global Environmental Issues ……….… Issues and Problems related to Global En World Summit for Environment ……… ODA and Environmental Issues ………… Trade and ODA ………………………… ODA and Environmental Issues ………… Problem of International Aid …………… 2.3.4 2.3.5 2.3.6 2.3.7 2.4 2.4.1 2.4.2 2.4.3 2.5 2.5.1 2.5.2 2.5.3 2.5.4 2.6 2.6.1 2.6.2 2.6.3 Private Sector …………………………………………………………… Transparency …………………………………………………….……… The Problem of Sovereignty and Economic Forces ……………………… Capacity Building, Education, and International Treaties ………….…… Sustainable Management of Environmental Natural Resources ……….… Definitions of Sustainable Development ………………………………… Economic growth for local welfare and conservation - Sustainable Development Problems Causing Sustainable Management …………………… ……… Environmental Conservation and International Agreement ……………… International Negotiation on Environmental Conservation ……………… Fund Raising under the Existing International Agreements ……………… ITTO and Forest Conservation …………………………………………… Limit in conservation by an international agreement organization ………… Experiences in Other Countries…………………………………………… Japan ……………………………………………………………………… South Korea ……………………………………………………………… China ……………………………………………………………………… Chapter III: Issues Related to Vietnam ………………………………………… 3.1 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.3 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 109 110 110 111 111 112 114 116 116 117 118 130 132 132 133 133 137 The New Trade Debate and Its Implication to Vietnam ………………… .137 3.1.1 Vietnam’s New Membership of WTO …………………………………… 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.1.4 3.2 109 137 New Politics of Trade and Vietnam ……………………………………… 138 CDM and Vietnam ……………………………………………………… 139 ODA and Environment/Trade Issues for Vietnam………………………… 141 Application of Economic Theory - Implication of ITTO Mechanisms to 142 Vietnam - ………………………………………………………………… Scenario ………………………………………………………………… 144 Scenario 2………………………………………………………………… 151 Analysis of results ………………………………………………………… 156 Summary of Games ……………………………………………………… 157 Experiences in Other Countries for the comparison with Vietnam………… 160 Japan ……………………………………………………………………… 160 South Korea ………………………………………………………….…… 160 China …………………………………………………………………… 160 3.2.4 Lessons from other countries …………………………………………… Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… List of reference materials ……………………………………………………… LIST OF FIGURES, BOXES AND TABLES Page Chapter I: Economic Theories Related to Environmental Conservation 15 Figure 1.1 18 Figure 1.2 18 Figure 1.3 20 Figure 1.4 20 Figure 1.5 21 Figure 1.6 21 Figure 1.7 23 Box 1.1 29 Figure 1.8 30 Figure 1.9 34 Figure 1.10 35 Figure 1.11 35 Figure 1.12 37 Figure 1.13 38 Figure 1.14 41 Figure 1.15 41 Figure 1.16 44 Figure 1.17 44 Figure 1.18 45 Figure 1.19 Box 1.2 48 49 Box 1.3 Same environmental value for both consumers and producers 53 Box 1.4 No environmental value for producers 54 Box 1.5 Half environmental value for producers 55 Box 1.6 Contribution to the fund and Game Theory /Scenario 1b (Gv = 2(Cp + Pp) - 1500)&(Pv = Gv - Pp + Cp) 57 Box 1.7 Same environmental value for both consumers and producers 59 Box 1.8 No environmental value for producers 60 Box 1.9 Half environmental value for producers 61 Figure 1.20 Contribution and Sustainable Level of Depletion (Case 4: Both consumers and producers share responsibility) 63 Figure 1.21 Budget Line of the Fund 66 Figure 1.22 Budget Line Shift by Producers' Efforts 66 Figure 1.23 Relation between contribution and Global Environmental Value /Scenario (Gv = Cp + Pp) Relation between contribution and Global Environmental Value /Scenario (Gv = Cp + Pp -1500) Contribution to the fund and Game Theory /Scenario (Gv = Cp + Pp) 68 Box 1.11 Same environmental value for both consumers and producers 72 Box 1.12 No environmental value for producers 73 Box 1.13 Half environmental value for producers 74 Box 1.14 Contribution to the fund and Game Theory /Scenario (Gv = Cp + Pp -1500) 75 Box 1.15 Same environmental value for both consumers and producers 76 Box 1.16 No environmental value for producers 77 Box 1.17 Half environmental value for producers 78 Box 1.18 Contribution to the fund and Game Theory /Scenario 2b (Gv = Cp + Pp)&(Pv = Gv -Pp + Cp) 80 Box 1.19 Same environmental value for both consumers and producers 81 Box 1.20 No environmental value for producers 82 Box 1.21 Half environmental value for producers 83 Figure 1.24 Box 1.10 69 71 Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 2.5 Table 2.6 Figure 3.1 Box 3.1 Box 3.2 Box 3.3 Box 3.4 Box 3.5 Box 3.6 Box 3.7 Box 3.8 C o nt ri b ut io n to th e fu n d a n d G a m e T h e ory /Scenario 3b (Gv = Cp + Pp -1500)&(Pv = Gv - Pp + Cp) Box 1.23 Same environmental value for both consumers and producers Box 1.24 No environmental value for producers Box 1.25 Half environmental value for producers Chapter II: Environmental Conservation and Trade ……………… Developing Countries' Share in Total Exports of Selected Total forest area, related land area and population in 1995 Forest cover change for developing countries Current and projected consumption of forest products (19902010) Natural forest and Net Plantations in developing countries Forest cover state and change by ecological zone for tropical countries Chapter III: Issues Related to Vietnam ……………………………… Relation between the Bali Partnership Fund and Vietnam Scenario (GVv = Cp + Vp) Contribution to the Bali Partnership Fund and Game Theory / Scenario 1: Vietam (GVv = Cp + Vp) Same environmental value for both Vietnam and consumers No environmental value for Vietnam Half environmental value for Vietnam Contribution to the Bali Partnership Fund and Game Theory /Scenario 2: Vietnam (GVv = Cp + Vp)&(Vv = GVv -Vp + Cp) 84 85 86 87 92 99 120 123 124 125 126 132 146 147 148 149 150 152 Same environmental value for both Vietnam and consumers No environmental value for Vietnam No environmental value for Vietnam 153 154 155 Abbreviations AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area APEC Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ARF ASEAN Regional Forum ASEAN Association of East Asian Nations ASEM Asia Europe Meeting BTA Bilateral Trade Agreement CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEPT Common Effective Preferential Tariff COP Conference of the Parties CPR Common Pool Resource CPRGS Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy DDA Doha Development Agenda DSB Dispute Settlement Board FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FCCC Framework Convention on the Climate Change FTA Free Trade Agreement FTAA Free Trade Area of the Americas GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GEF General Environmental Facilities GHG Green House Gas ICO International Coffee Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change ITTA International Tropical Timber Agreement ITTO International Tropical Timber Organization MAI Multilateral Agreement on Investment MDG Millennium Development Goals MEA Multilateral Environment Agreement For this purpose, the game results are rearranged as follows: Here, 'Success' means the case in which Vv (Column I) is higher than Vv (Column IV) because then the producers have the positive incentive to contribute to the Bali Partnership Fund Likewise, 'Failure' means the case Vv (Column I) is lower than Vv (Column IV) 'In-between' means the case Vv (Column I) equals Vv (Column IV) and it depends on the negotiation with consumers for producers to decide which Column they should choose Form the above results, the following can be concluded: The fund becomes effective when Vietnam identifies the same environmental value on its domestic forests Even when Vietnam identifies the half of its environmental value, the fund can also become effective if the contribution is given directly to Vietnam When Vietnam does not identify commercial value on environmental aspect of its domestic forests, the fund is most likely to fail Under this case, Vietnam chooses to produce timber products and export 3.2.4 Summary of games There is no doubt that tropical forests are under serious threat of depletion 157 Although the depletion rate is slowing down in recent years, still the current net depletion rate of 0.6% could cause serious destruction of the tropical forests in the long run ITTO is seriously tackling this very important issue for all of mankind by adopting the year 2000 objective in its new ITTA of 1994 If this objective succeeds, the world tropical forest would be all managed sustainably Unfortunately, despite serious efforts being taken by the member governments of ITTO, no concrete scheme to implement the objective through the Bali Partnership Fund has yet been adopted Two of the most influential factors for the delay are the difficulties in identifying the level of sustainable management and the amount of contribution to the Fund It is not hard to imagine that member countries view the level of sustainability differently because it is not necessarily determined scientifically Negotiation for allocation of contribution is always very difficult and time consuming Further, there is a doubt among ITTO member countries on whether trade incentive or restrictive measures could properly reduce the level of tropical forests depletion when only 6% of the tropical logs is traded in the world market International negotiations are often considered under collective action problems Without proper authority that can force its members to obey its decisions, any effective and workable measures seem unlikely to be achieved However, an international agreement is a kind of law that all member countries must abide by and that members can be punished by the organization if they not abide by the decisions taken under the agreement Although a member country has liberty to withdraw from the agreement as an ultimate measure, it would be very difficult to leave the organization if it is supported by the overwhelming majority in the global community ITTO is an international agreement organization and it holds majority of tropical timber producers and consumers in the world Therefore, its decisions could influence the world trade of tropical forests if they are properly introduced ITTO also holds the best information in the world about tropical timbers and provide proper consultation bodies for member countries to negotiate discuss and exchange information related to tropical timbers In this respect, ITTO is considered to be in the best position to handle the 158 issues related to tropical timbers and conservation of tropical forests as well The games illustrated above also indicate there are possibilities that ITTO can succeed in making both its producing and consuming member countries to contribute to the Bali Partnership Fund 3.3 Experiences in Other Countries for the Comparison with Vietnam 3.3.1 Japan The experience of Japan stated in the chapter 2.6.1 became a good model for other Asian countries which took the similar path of export oriented economic growth in later years It is very much advisable for Vietnam to look into the damages in Japan caused by pollution during 1960s The mistake should not be repeated in Vietnam It is easy to damage the local environment by polluting rivers, sea, lands and the air, but it is very difficult and takes long time to recover the clean environment as before Some of the natural creatures may even go extinct which, off course, will never be recovered 3.3.2 South Korea South Korea‟s success as described in the Chapter 2.6.2 in becoming the second member of OECD from Asia in a relatively short period of time illustrates a good example for Vietnam in its effort to be another member of OECD in the future The introduction of anti-pollution measures in advance of the economic growth and the introduction of democratic governmental system are the key for the success, as illustrated in the case of South Korea 3.3.1 China The most important lesson for Vietnam from the experience of China as 159 illustrated in the Chapter 2.6.3 is probably the mistake in setting five year numerical targets The best numerical achievement is gained through the thorough implementation of market principles Market principles always lead the economy to the most profitable point for the society as a whole What government should is to protect free market systems by avoiding official intervention as much as possible Setting numerical targets is a serious mistake in terms of economic development 3.3.4 Lessons from Other Countries As explained in the above paragraphs, lessons learnt from the experiences in other countries can be summarized as follows: - Export-oriented economic growth is a right policy - The US market is most important for Vietnam in expanding its export, which will lead to a rapid growth of the entire Vietnamese economy - The cost of pollution control and environmental conservation could remain relatively cheap if proper measures are introduced in advance of economic development The recovery cost of the lost environmental quality and public health is much high than the economic gains - Good governance and democracy is an important factor in strengthening the economic performance of a country - Setting numerical economic target is nothing but an economic hazard Free market principles will always lead the economy to the most profitable point in society 160 CONCLUSION Economic theories introduced in the Chapter all clearly show that environmental natural resources are not protected under the free market mechanism Therefore, some new rules need to be integrated into the market system so that environmental natural resources can be properly protected As discussed in the Chapter 1, international organizations are considered to be tasked to take the leading role in the conservation of environmental natural resources This is mostly because the environmental natural resources are generally the international resources and that the cooperation of international community is indispensable for the conservation of international environmental natural resources Then, the next question is how international organizations can conserve the resources A number of games introduced in this thesis provide a possible answer to it Games clearly showed that international environmental resources can be conserved above the sustainable level if and when members of international organization cooperate each other through market mechanisms regulated under the rules of the organizations, based on certain conditions set forth in the thesis The outcome of the games, together with the outcome of discussions related economic theories held in this thesis, can be summarized as follows Under a completely free market, environmental natural resources are doomed to be depleted because of the „prisoners‟ dilemma.‟ Proper rules under international organization can successfully conserve the international environmental resources Such rules must be supported by proper dispute settlement mechanisms and monitoring systems Ownership of resources needs to be properly identified under the rules of the 161 organizations in order for Coase Theorem to become effective The level of sustainable development must also be properly defined under the rules of the organization It better needs to be endorsed by scientific researches and undisputable data and evidences The level of penalty must be larger than the benefit from which member countries can gain from chiseling, because otherwise there would be no incentive for those chiseling countries to stop making unfair profits out of trade of the resources As for Vietnam, it would be necessary for Vietnam to pay due attention to the issues related to trade and environment especially because Vietnam has become a member of WTO in January 2007 Vietnam will face pressure from international community on its domestic environmental policies by way of international agreements Even sanctions or penalties would possibly be applied to Vietnam However, if a proper system is established and proper consultations are held, Vietnam may be able to receive fund to achieve sustainable management of domestic natural resources without paying extra contributions to international organizations For this to become possible, Vietnam needs to identify its own value on the environmental products and measure the same for the global community Above summation has been derived from the following process of this thesis structure First, the thesis stated with a number of evidences that environmental conservation has been closely linked in trade debate Second, the thesis introduced a number of economic theories related to economic externalities which proved that environmental international resources 162 are doomed to be over-exploited Third, the thesis also introduced a new idea on sustainable development represented by the equation “C ≦ OS*E + S” which innovatively illustrates the relation of two major concepts on sustainable management This equation helps us to see the relation between two points of sustainability in a single diagram Forth, the thesis explained in detail about the current issues related to trade and environment, including commodity agreements, WTO Doha round negotiations, World Environment Summits, and ODA Fifth, the thesis employed the game theory as the main tool to conduct economic analysis related to trade and environmental conservation through international organizations Sixth, the thesis took up ITTO as a case study to apply game theory to see the effect of balance of power between producers and consumers which would have significant impact on tropical timber trade and forest resource conservation Seventh, the thesis put factors derived from Ostrom‟s cooperative game theories and introduced two factors, i.e., the enforcement with penalty and self-arranged arbitration system Eighth, the thesis explains the related situation of Vietnam and also applied the above stated games to Vietnam By this well planned and organized thesis structure, the above set of conclusions are theoretically established It should be noted, however, that it is indispensable to identify rules and 163 mechanisms to establish a workable dispute settlement and monitoring systems It may not be easy to prove that a workable system can be established through the games of cooperation because it depends on the conditions of the international and domestic market forces In any case, this thesis has clearly shown that the conservation would require the transfer of fund from consumers to producers in order for it to become effectively successful Even though both consumers and producers equally wish for the successful conservation of the international natural resources, consumers are requested to transfer the fund directly to producers because the property rights are clearly attached to producers as indicated under Coarse theorem In real world, this means that a country like Vietnam which is classified as the producers for timbers, biodiversity and other environmental resources, may not necessarily bear much financial burden under the framework of international organizations This has already been being experimentally introduced for the cases of CDM trade under which developing countries provide the environmental amenity to the global community through Kyoto Protocol As for Vietnam, the plight of environmental degradation has not reached a serious stage yet However, proper attention needs to be made during the course of economic development, particularly under the trade liberalization efforts supported by WTO systems As discussed in the Chapter 2, the relation between trade and environment will be focused in the future trade debate in the international context Therefore, Vietnam also needs to be prepared for the role under which Vietnam is expected to follow in order to maintain its domestic environmental resources above the sustainable level Forestry can become an important sector to this effect because of the international concerns and efforts to implement CDM The games in the Chapter indicate that Vietnam has been maintaining its forest resources to a relatively stable condition for the possible sustainable level The trade-offs with the benefit to be obtained from timber trade during the course of future economic development process need to be carefully administrated 164 The Doha Development Agenda (DDA) is still being negotiated among WTO member countries as of June 2007 However, there seems to be a possibility for an agreement to be reached on the agricultural negotiation, the hardest item among the agenda, even during the summer of 2007 If the agreement is reached for agriculture, the entire DDA could be concluded soon after that Since Vietnam is now a member of WTO, Vietnam can express its own views related to DDA negotiations which may change the course of the negotiations The environmental issues are not exception Vietnam can make its own position with regard to environmental issues under WTO and actively participate in the negotiations while DDA negotiations are still being conducted It may be difficult for Vietnam to change the course of DDA negotiations because DDA has been negotiated for nearly years while Vietnam was outside of the system However, it is likely that a new round of negotiations will be launched soon after the conclusion of DDA Then, Vietnam is full-fledged to participate in the negotiations to secure its own positions and profits As stated in this thesis, environmental issues will definitely be closely, or even more closely, related to WTO negotiations Hence, the new round negotiations will be a good chance for Vietnam to form a national policy on the trade and environmental issues A possible outcome which may derive from this thesis onto the Vietnam‟s policy on WTO negotiations is that Vietnam would request that international communities, i.e., other WHO members, recognize the value of environmental assets which Vietnam holds at this moment calculated by Vietnam, and demand them to bear the cost of the maintenance of such values as they will be damaged if Vietnam increase its export to other members The right values of „a‟ and „e‟ and game patterns used in the games of this thesis, which is arbitrary for Vietnam to calculate but may also be negotiated under new round, will have to be first determined by Vietnam before the negotiations Then, based on the values of „a‟ and „e‟ and identified game patterns, Vietnam may be able to identify the amount of contributions which other members of WTO should bear as a form of economic cooperation to Vietnam in order to 165 compensate for the trade benefits which would be foregone by protecting environmental assets in Vietnam It is the author‟s hope and pleasure if the implications stated in this thesis become some reference for Vietnam in forming its position for WTO negotiations 166 LIST OF REFERENCE MATERIALS Asahi News Agency (2002), “World Summit,” Asahi News Digest 2002, Asahi News Agency Press, Tokyo Barbier et al (1994), Tropical Timber Trade, Earthscan, London, Begg, D (1997), Economics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, London Botkin & Keller (1998), Environmental Science, John Willy & Sons,Inc., New York Common Fund (2001), Common Fund Annual Report 2001, Common Fund, Amsterdam Environment Agency of Japan (2002), Quality of Environment in Japan in 2002, Government Press, Japan FAO (2000), World Forest Report 2000, FAO Press Rome FAO (2002), FAO Year Book 2002, FAO Press, Rome Field, B C 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1996 http://www.climnet.org/sbsta16/CANEuropesinksCDM.pdf 53 Yomiuri (2003), Oct 31, “World Population,” Daily Yomiuri News Paper, (Article on page 23 on Oct 31 issue), Tokyo, Yomiuri Publishing & Co 54 Yomiuri2 (2007), December 7, “Environmentally Developing Countries – China,” Daily Yomiuri News Paper, (Article on page on Dec issue) 169 ... theories and analyze the international agreements in accordance with these theories By adopting theoretical approaches, the role and limits of international agreements in the environmental conservation. .. original and very challenging in this aspect Objectives of the Study Thus, the purpose of this thesis is to examine how International Agreements envisage to contributing to conservation of the. .. global environmental -6- conservation Moreover, it is of significance to study the implication of international agreements onto the environmental conservation in Vietnam, since Vietnam is rapidly integrated