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Lecture 10 - Measuring exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. After completing this chapter, students will be able to: To discuss the relevance of an MNC’s exposure to exchange rate risk; to explain how transaction exposure can be measured; to explain how economic exposure can be measured; and to explain how translation exposure can be measured.
Lecture 10 Measuring Exposure To Exchange Rate Fluctuations Chapter Objectives To discuss the relevance of an MNC’s exposure to exchange rate risk; To explain how transaction exposure can be measured; To explain how economic exposure can be measured; and To explain how translation exposure can be measured 10 - Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? Purchasing Power Parity Argument Exchange rate movements will be matched by price movements PPP does not necessarily hold 10 - Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? The Investor Hedge Argument MNC shareholders can hedge against exchange rate fluctuations on their own The investors have complete information on corporate exposure They have the capabilities to correctly and efficiently insulate their individual exposure too 10 - Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? Currency Diversification Argument An MNC that is well diversified should not be affected by exchange rate movements because of offsetting effects This is a naive presumption 10 - Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? Stakeholder Diversification Argument Well-diversified stakeholders will be somewhat insulated against losses experienced by an MNC due to exchange rate risk Many MNCs are similarly affected by exchange rate movements 10 - Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? Response from MNCs • Many MNCs have attempted to stabilize their earnings with hedging strategies because they believe exchange rate risk is relevant 10 - Types of Exposure • Although exchange rates cannot be forecasted with perfect accuracy, firms can at least measure their exposure to exchange rate fluctuations • Exposure to exchange rate fluctuations comes in three forms: Ô Transaction exposure Ô Economic exposure Ô Translation exposure 10 - Transaction Exposure • The degree to which the value of future cash transactions can be affected by exchange rate fluctuations is referred to as transaction exposure • To measure transaction exposure: estimate the net cash inflows or outflows in each currency, and measure the potential impact of the exposure to those currencies 10 - Estimating Net Currency Flows • MNCs can usually anticipate foreign cash flows for an upcoming short-term period with reasonable accuracy • After the consolidated net currency flows for the entire MNC has been determined, each net flow is converted into a point estimate (or range) of a chosen currency • The exposure for each currency can then be assessed using the same measure 10 - 10 Impact of Cash Flow and Correlation Conditions on an MNC’s Exposure Expected Net Cash Flow Currency x Currency y +Q +Q +Q +Q +Q +Q +Q +Q +Q – Q – Q – Q MNC’s Correlation between Currencies x and y Exposure Highly positive High Slightly positive Moderate Negative Low Highly positive Low Slightly positive Moderate Negative High 10 - 14 Movements of Major Currencies against the Dollar 10 - 15 Transaction Exposure • The value-at-risk (VAR) method makes use of currency volatility and correlations to determine the potential maximum one-day loss on the value of an MNC’s positions • For foreign currency x, the maximum oneday loss = E ( ex ) – z[P] x E(ex) = expected % in x for the next day z[P] = if u ~ N(0,1), Prob (u < z[P] ) = P for 95% confidence level, z[.95] = 1.65 x = standard deviation of the daily % in x 10 - 16 Transaction Exposure • The VAR method can also be used to assess exposure to multiple currencies and over longer time horizons • Maximum one-month loss of currency portfolio p = E ( ep ) – z[P] p E(ep) = expected % in p over the next month z[P] = if u ~ N(0,1), Prob (u < z[P] ) = P for 95% confidence level, z[.95] = 1.65 p = standard deviation of the monthly % in portfolio p 10 - 17 Economic Exposure • Economic exposure refers to the degree to which a firm’s present value of future cash flows can be influenced by exchange rate fluctuations • Some of these affected cash flows not require currency conversion • Even a purely domestic firm may be affected by economic exposure if it faces foreign competition in its local markets 10 - 18 Economic Exposure to Exchange Rate Fluctuations Transactions that Influence the Firm’s Cash Inflows Local sales (relative to foreign competition in local markets) Firm’s exports denominated in local currency Firm’s exports denominated in foreign currency Interest received from foreign investments Transactions that Influence the Firm’s Cash Inflows Firm’s imported supplies denominated in local currency Firm’s imported supplies denominated in foreign currency Interest owed on foreign funds borrowed Local Currency Local Currency Appreciates Depreciates Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Decrease Increase No change No change Decrease Increase Decrease Increase Transactions that reflect transaction exposure 10 - 19 Economic Exposure • Economic exposure can be measured by assessing the sensitivity of the firms earnings to exchange rates Ô This involves reviewing how the earnings forecast in the firm’s income statement changes in response to alternative exchange rate scenarios • In general, firms with more foreign costs than revenues tend to be unfavorably affected by stronger foreign currencies 10 - 20 Economic Exposure • Economic exposure can also be measured by assessing the sensitivity of the firm’s cash flows to exchange rates through regression analysis • For a single foreign currency: PCFt = a0 + a1et + t PCFt = % in inflation-adjusted cash flows measured in the firm’s home currency over period t et = % in the exchange rate over period t 10 - 21 Economic Exposure • The model may be revised to handle additional currencies by including them as additional independent variables • By replacing the dependent variable (cash flows), the impact of exchange rates on the firm’s value (as measured by its stock price), earnings, exports, sales, etc may also be assessed 10 - 22 Translation Exposure • The exposure of an MNC’s consolidated financial statements to exchange rate fluctuations is known as translation exposure • In particular, subsidiary earnings translated into the reporting currency on the consolidated income statement are subject to changing exchange rates 10 - 23 Does Translation Exposure Matter? Cash Flow Perspective The translation of financial statements for consolidated reporting purposes does not by itself affect an MNC’s cash flows However, a weak spot rate today may result in a weak exchange rate forecast (and hence a weak expected cash flow) for the point in the future when subsidiary earnings are to be remitted 10 - 24 Does Translation Exposure Matter? Stock Price Perspective Since an MNC’s translation exposure affects its consolidated earnings and many investors tend to use earnings when valuing firms, the MNC’s valuation may be affected 10 - 25 Translation Exposure • An MNC’s degree of translation exposure is dependent on: the proportion of its business conducted by foreign subsidiaries, the locations of its foreign subsidiaries, and the accounting methods that it uses 10 - 26 Translation Exposure • In the 2000–2001 period, the weakness of the euro caused several U.S.-based MNCs to report lower earnings than what they had expected • In 2002 and 2003, however, the euro strengthened, and the consolidated income statements of these U.S.-based MNCs improved 10 - 27 ã Source: Adopted from South-Western/Thomson Learning â 2006 10 - 28 ... Low Slightly positive Moderate Negative High 10 - 14 Movements of Major Currencies against the Dollar 10 - 15 Transaction Exposure • The value-at-risk (VAR) method makes use of currency volatility... and the consolidated income statements of these U.S.-based MNCs improved 10 - 27 • Source: Adopted from South-Western/Thomson Learning © 2006 10 - 28 ... be measured 10 - Is Exchange Rate Risk Relevant? Purchasing Power Parity Argument Exchange rate movements will be matched by price movements PPP does not necessarily hold 10 - Is Exchange