Using the Rosse-Panzar H-statistic to investigate the the competitive condition in Vietnamese banking system

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY - PHAM HUYEN TRANG USING THE ROSSE PANZAR H-STATISTIC TO INVESTIGATE THE COMPETITIVE CONDITION IN VIETNAMESE BANKING SYSTEM MASTER THESIS Ho Chi Minh City-2018 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY - PHAM HUYEN TRANG USING THE ROSSE PANZAR H-STATISTIC TO INVESTIGATE THE COMPETITIVE CONDITION IN VIETNAMESE BANKING SYSTEM MAJOR: FINANCE-BANKING CODE:8340201 MASTER THESIS Instructor: Assoc.Prof.Phd.Vo Xuan Vinh Ho Chi Minh City-2018 CONTENTS COVER PAGE DECLARATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION .1 1.1 Necessity of the thesis .1 1.2 Prior researches 1.3 Objective of the thesis .3 1.4 Data 1.5 Methodology .3 1.6 The thesis contribution 1.7 Structure of the thesis CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND OF THE VIETNAMESE BANKING SYSTEM .6 2.1 Reforms in the 1990s .6 2.2 Reforms in the 2000s .7 2.3 Reforms in the 2010s 14 2.4 Conclusion for chapter 16 CHAPTER 3: LITERATURE REVIEW 17 3.1 The general approach 17 3.1 The Panzar-Rosse Methodology 18 3.2 Empirical literature review 20 3.3 Conclusion for chapter 24 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH METHOD 25 4.1 The model .25 4.2 Data 27 4.3 Conclusion for chapter 29 CHAPTER 5: THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS 30 5.1 Pooled estimation 30 5.2 Year by year estimation .33 5.3 Conclusion for chapter 39 CHAPTER 6:CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS 40 6.1 Conclusion 40 6.2 Recomendations 41 LIST OF REFERENCES APPENDIX DECLARATION I, Pham Huyen Trang, hereby declare that this thesis entitled “Using the Rosse-Panzar H-statistic to investigate the the competitive condition in Vietnamese banking system” is the result of my own research I have completed this study under the guidance of Assoc.Prof.Phd.Vo Xuan Vinh, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City I certify that , to the best of my knowlegde, my thesis does not infringe upon anyone‟s copyright or violate any proprietary rights and that any ideas, techniques, quotations, or any other people included in my thesis I futher declare that the thesis has not previously formed the basis for the award of any degree, diploma, associateship, fellowship or other similar titles of recognition Author‟s signature Pham Huyen Trang Ho Chi Minh City, April,2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Vietnamese banking market has undergone many changes over the last decade The Panzar-Rosse (1987) methodology-also called H statistic is applied to investigate the level of competition in Vietnamese banking sector over the period 2005-2015 by using the data collected from the sample of 20 commercial private banks and state-owned bank (Agribank) The results of this study reveal that Vietnamese banking market operates under the monopolistic condition (H takes the value at 0.4459, between and 1) However, the results of competitive test for each year show that banks appear to be in monopoly condition from 2005 to 2009, and banks appear to be in monopolistic condition from 2010 to 2015, except the year 2012 (the banking market is not in equilibrilium condition, so that I can not apply H statistic for this year) ABBREVIATIONS ACB: Asia Commercial Bank ANZ: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited BIDV: Bank for Development and Investment HSBC: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation M&A: Merger and Acquisition NEIO: the New Empirical Industrial Organization NPLs: the nonperforming loans OCBC: Oversea Chinese Banking Corporation SBV: State Bank of Viet Nam SCB: Standard Charter Bank SCP: the Structure conduct performance paradigm SOCBs: State-owned commercial banks USBTA: The United States/Vietnam bilateral agreement WTO: World Trade Organization LIST OF TABLES Table 1: The Vietnamese banking system from 1991 to 1999 Table 2: The numbers of the foreign bank, foreign bank branches and Joint-Venture banks in Vietnamese banking system from 2001 to 2009 Table 3: Interpretation of the H-statistic Table 4: List of banks in the sample Table 5: Regression Results of competitive conditions for Vietnamese banking system over the period 2005-2009 Table 6: Competitive conditions for Vietnamese banks, 2005-2009 Table 7: Competitive conditions for Vietnamese banks, 2010-2015 Table 8: Equilibrium tests for Vietnamese banks, 2005-2009 Table 9: Equilibrium tests for Vietnamese banks, 2010-2015 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Market share of Vietnamese commercial banks in deposit from 2000 to 2009 Figure 2: Market share of Vietnamese commercial banks in credit from 2000 to 2009 Figure 3: The non-performing loans ratio of the whole banking system over the period 2004-2009 Figure 4: The average credit growth rate and the credit outstanding balance of Vietnamese banking system from 2000 to 2009 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Necessity of the thesis Competition is always an important topic for researchers in all sectors, especially in the banking and finance industry A healthy and stable banking and financial system will be the driving force for economic growth and development The banking industry in Viet Nam has experienced many significant changes over the past two decades Previously, the market share was predominantly owned by state-owned banks However, nowadays restructuring, integration, internationalization trends and the technological progress, have contributed to changing the competition in Vietnamese banking sector Particularly by accessing the WTO (World Trade Organization) in 2007, the restriction in financial and banking sector for foreign institutions gradually removed Integration and liberation financial sector brings many opportunities but also many challenges for Vietnamese banking system The market entry of foreign banks not only increases the level of competition but also increases the effectiveness and safety of banking industry Domestic banks have opportunities to access the capital, technology, and management experience from international credit institutions Although local banks have advantages of operating history and branch network, the weakness in management, technology, and service quality make the local banks cope with severe competition from foreign banks, the possibility of acquisitions by M&A activities Besides, the structural changes made more and more banks established in Viet Nam As a consequence, the rapid development of the banking system in a short period has caused ineffectiveness in the banking sector Thus, Decision No 254 was approved by the SBV to restructure the credit institution system, and M&A is one of the key solutions to improve the performance of Vietnamese's banking system 40 CHAPTER 6:CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusion Banks always plays an important role in the allocation of funds The banking system is not only a tool for the State to regulate the macroeconomy, the driving force for boosting the development of the economy,but also a bridge between the domestic financial market and the international financial market Vietnam's banking system has experienced many changes and reforms over the past ten years Together with the integration and globalization trend, the banking system of Vietnam has also had significant changes.More and more foreign financial institutions are established Foreigner investors expand their business through M&A activities The market share of the state owned banks has gradually decreased.Therefore, it is necessary to have analytical instruments to analyze and measure the level of competition of commercial banks in Vietnam This paper used the data collected from the financial and annual report of 21 commercial banks in Viet Nam The empirical analysis is based on a nonstructural approach due to Panzar and Rosse (1987) The H-statistic relies on the reduced form revenue equation and captures the elasticity of bank interest revenues to input prices and measures the percentage of change in the equilibrium revenue of a bank generated by a change of percent in entry costs The estimates of the H statistics suggest that Vietnamese banking system is characterized as monopolistically competitive over the period of 2005-2015 The H statistic takes value 0.4504813, between zero and one The Wald test for H=0 and H=1 reject the null hypothesis However, when applied H statistics for each year from 2005 to 2015, the results show that banks operate under monopoly from 2005 to 2009 and monopolistic competition from 2010 to 2015 The results show that the competitive environment has been changed and increasing over time Since the Panzar-Rosse 41 methodology requires that banks operate in a long run equilibrium (Shaffer,1985), the test of equilibrium is applied for the overall sample period and each year Estimation of the equilibrium statistics reveals that Vietnamese banking market is in equilibrium during the period 2005 to 2015 and disequilibrium in 2012 6.2 Recomendations Therefore, the competition in the commercial banking system in Vietnam becomes more intense The paper offers a number of recommendations to help commercial banks cope with these changes Fisrt, an effective risk management strategy should be developed to improve the competitiveness and prodution efficiency of banks Secondly, banks can increase their competitiveness by diversifying and improving the quality of their products –services and by implementing advances in technology, especially in the integration trend In addition, these enhancements also help banks reduce the competitive pressure from traditional products And finally, although the entry of foreign financial institutions has increased competition for domestic banks, this is also the driving force for the development of the banking system in Vietnam Local banks need to improve their perfomance and risk management capacity to attract more foreign stategic partners Foreign financial institutions with advantages about technology and management experiences will help local banks improve their competitiveness to cope with changes in competitive conditions in Vietnamese banking market LIST OF REFERENCES Decision No.254/QD-TTg-Approving the project on “Re Vietnamese banks need to improve their operational efficiency and risk management capacity to attractstructuring the system of credit institutions during 2011-2015”, 2012 Decree No.22/2006/ND-CP: On organzation and operation of foreign bank branches, joint venture banks,banks with 100% foreign capital, and representative offices of foreign credit institutions in Viet Nam,28/02/2006 Fu, X (2009), „Competition in Chinese commercial banking‟, Banking and Finance review, 1-16 George Hondroyiannis, Sarantis Lolos, Evangelia Papapetrou (1998), „Assessing competitive conditions in the Greek banking system‟, Journal of International Financial Markets, 377-391 Nathan, A., E.H Neave (1989), „Competiton and contestability in Canada in financial system: Empirical results‟, Canadian Journal of economics, 576-594 Panzar, J.C., J.N.Rosse (1987), „Testing for „monopoly‟ equibrium‟, Journal of industrial economics, 443-456 Phil Molyneux, D.M Lloyd-Williams and John Thornton (1993), „Competitive conditions in Europe banking‟, Journal of banking and finance, 445-459 Rosse, J.N., J.C.Panzar (1977), „Chamberlin vs Robinson: An empirical study for monopoly rents‟, Bell Laboratories Economics Discussion Paper Shaffer, Sherrill (1982), ‘A Non Structural Test for Competition in Financial Market in Bank Structure and Competition‟, The Federal Reserve Bank Chicago Conference Proceedings, 225-243 Bao Tran Tran (2015),‟Vietnam banking industry report‟, APPENDIX Appendix 1: Equibrilium test for the period 2005-2015 Source SS df MS Model Residual 22.1524767 81.8656035 203 3.69207945 403278835 Total 104.01808 209 497694163 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 0450995 0410248 -.2924136 -.045691 -.2707216 2542727 -.8863144 Std Err .0801868 0224788 0933835 0581809 0670254 0721731 1.104891 t 0.56 1.83 -3.13 -0.79 -4.04 3.52 -0.80 Number of obs F(6, 203) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.574 0.069 0.002 0.433 0.000 0.001 0.423 = = = = = = 210 9.16 0.0000 0.2130 0.1897 63504 [95% Conf Interval] -.1130064 -.0032971 -.4765395 -.1604074 -.4028769 1119676 -3.064848 2032054 0853468 -.1082876 0690255 -.1385662 3965778 1.29222 Appendix 2: Competitive environment test for the period 2005-2015 Source SS df MS Model Residual 10.4203131 5.09034276 203 1.73671886 02507558 Total 15.5106559 209 074213665 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 180729 -.0383126 3015039 -.0245947 0130719 -.1010374 -2.179426 Std Err .0231874 0133496 0230485 0081455 0170589 0183838 2827467 t 7.79 -2.87 13.08 -3.02 0.77 -5.50 -7.71 Number of obs F(6, 203) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.003 0.444 0.000 0.000 = = = = = = 210 69.26 0.0000 0.6718 0.6621 15835 [95% Conf Interval] 1350099 -.0646343 2560588 -.0406554 -.0205636 -.1372851 -2.736923 2264481 -.011991 346949 -.008534 0467073 -.0647896 -1.621929 44 Appendix 3: Equibrilium test for each year from 2005-2015 Year: 2005 Source SS df MS Model Residual 4.24367654 2.23303006 707279423 279128758 Total 6.4767066 14 4626219 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 9332482 -.1392832 0130879 4039011 1.564884 -1.843028 -20.40485 Std Err t 5789734 2547017 3558598 1760907 8965501 9086941 9.802479 1.61 -0.55 0.04 2.29 1.75 -2.03 -2.08 df MS Number of obs F(6, 8) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.146 0.599 0.972 0.051 0.119 0.077 0.071 = = = = = = 15 2.53 0.1118 0.6552 0.3966 52833 [95% Conf Interval] -.4018669 -.7266264 -.8075263 -.0021647 -.5025637 -3.93848 -43.0094 2.268363 44806 8337022 8099669 3.632333 2524244 2.199709 Year: 2006 Source SS Model Residual 1.33552297 2.72957259 10 222587162 272957259 Total 4.06509556 16 254068472 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons -.2257567 0146349 -.2376327 1200074 -.396307 3934805 3836436 Std Err .526742 169145 2511557 1029899 902159 8730095 10.43009 t -0.43 0.09 -0.95 1.17 -0.44 0.45 0.04 Number of obs F(6, 10) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.677 0.933 0.366 0.271 0.670 0.662 0.971 = = = = = = 17 0.82 0.5817 0.3285 -0.0743 52245 [95% Conf Interval] -1.399411 -.3622437 -.7972423 -.1094685 -2.406442 -1.551706 -22.85604 9478977 3915135 321977 3494833 1.613829 2.338667 23.62333 45 Year: 2007 Source SS df MS Model Residual 39087012 1.53168465 11 06514502 139244059 Total 1.92255477 17 113091457 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 2092562 -.0342771 -.3088107 -.0416193 0704464 0323886 -4.456891 Std Err t 3212782 1520932 290365 2108739 580913 6425506 7.56739 0.65 -0.23 -1.06 -0.20 0.12 0.05 -0.59 df MS Number of obs F(6, 11) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.528 0.826 0.310 0.847 0.906 0.961 0.568 = = = = = = 18 0.47 0.8185 0.2033 -0.2313 37315 [95% Conf Interval] -.4978724 -.369032 -.9478998 -.5057497 -1.208134 -1.381856 -21.11261 9163849 3004778 3302784 4225111 1.349027 1.446633 12.19882 Year: 2008 Source SS Model Residual 4.0507939 2.96929184 13 675132317 228407065 Total 7.02008574 19 369478197 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons -.3378665 -.0308143 -.549758 -.5514865 -.434343 8936135 -.9496202 Std Err .4799484 1843392 2107798 3412041 8175852 935676 9.520691 t -0.70 -0.17 -2.61 -1.62 -0.53 0.96 -0.10 Number of obs F(6, 13) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.494 0.870 0.022 0.130 0.604 0.357 0.922 = = = = = = 20 2.96 0.0479 0.5770 0.3818 47792 [95% Conf Interval] -1.374732 -.429055 -1.00512 -1.288613 -2.200628 -1.127792 -21.51782 6989989 3674264 -.0943959 1856401 1.331942 2.915019 19.61858 46 Year: 2009 Source SS df MS Model Residual 848331044 782768567 11 141388507 071160779 Total 1.63109961 17 095947036 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 0255529 1294554 -.4663168 -.1464464 -.4562338 5185279 1.904554 Std Err t 387311 1380458 159288 2239459 7287788 7858756 8.792621 0.07 0.94 -2.93 -0.65 -0.63 0.66 0.22 df MS Number of obs F(6, 11) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.949 0.368 0.014 0.527 0.544 0.523 0.832 = = = = = = 18 1.99 0.1533 0.5201 0.2583 26676 [95% Conf Interval] -.826913 -.1743815 -.8169072 -.6393479 -2.060265 -1.211173 -17.44788 8780187 4332922 -.1157264 3464552 1.147798 2.248228 21.25698 Year: 2010 Source SS Model Residual 2.02370997 1.82033107 13 337284996 140025467 Total 3.84404105 19 20231795 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 62853 0539424 -.797238 -.1654033 1248891 -.0518375 -4.094755 Std Err .4211683 0681368 311454 2925427 6374577 6288985 7.907799 t 1.49 0.79 -2.56 -0.57 0.20 -0.08 -0.52 Number of obs F(6, 13) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.159 0.443 0.024 0.581 0.848 0.936 0.613 = = = = = = 20 2.41 0.0867 0.5265 0.3079 3742 [95% Conf Interval] -.2813487 -.0932582 -1.470093 -.7974033 -1.252255 -1.41049 -21.17852 1.538409 2011429 -.1243826 4665967 1.502033 1.306815 12.98901 47 Year: 2011 Source SS df MS Model Residual 5.5242076 5.32556637 14 920701266 380397598 Total 10.849774 20 542488698 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 1.590721 2171234 -.2806048 -.104572 7620188 -.8185814 -9.462707 Std Err t 6143236 1005816 4759593 3882694 9610418 8630862 11.70917 2.59 2.16 -0.59 -0.27 0.79 -0.95 -0.81 df MS Number of obs F(6, 14) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.021 0.049 0.565 0.792 0.441 0.359 0.433 = = = = = = 21 2.42 0.0812 0.5092 0.2988 61676 [95% Conf Interval] 2731283 0013973 -1.301436 -.9373271 -1.299211 -2.669717 -34.57639 2.908314 4328494 7402264 728183 2.823249 1.032554 15.65097 Year: 2012 Source SS Model Residual 8.74946028 2.44872081 14 1.45824338 174908629 Total 11.1981811 20 559909054 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons -.326085 -.1597178 -1.209612 -.5550319 -1.211742 1.413155 10.3879 Std Err .4206506 1255959 3554935 2377108 6448207 576537 8.236831 t -0.78 -1.27 -3.40 -2.33 -1.88 2.45 1.26 Number of obs F(6, 14) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.451 0.224 0.004 0.035 0.081 0.028 0.228 = = = = = = 21 8.34 0.0006 0.7813 0.6876 41822 [95% Conf Interval] -1.228291 -.4290941 -1.97207 -1.064871 -2.594745 1766057 -7.278346 5761209 1096586 -.4471542 -.045193 1712607 2.649704 28.05415 48 Year: 2013 Source SS df MS Model Residual 5.68623836 8.07863277 14 947706394 577045198 Total 13.7648711 20 688243557 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 7068469 -.2058826 -.3308404 -.9657201 3628948 0064233 -10.98878 Std Err t 614608 2578658 6134727 4339105 1.18492 1.073803 16.05423 1.15 -0.80 -0.54 -2.23 0.31 0.01 -0.68 df MS Number of obs F(6, 14) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.269 0.438 0.598 0.043 0.764 0.995 0.505 = = = = = = 21 1.64 0.2080 0.4131 0.1616 75963 [95% Conf Interval] -.6113562 -.7589498 -1.646609 -1.896365 -2.178506 -2.296656 -45.42168 2.02505 3471847 9849277 -.0350747 2.904295 2.309502 23.44412 Year: 2014 Source SS Model Residual 4.35164672 9.90274031 13 725274454 761749255 Total 14.254387 19 750230897 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons -.0341658 4170256 -.4783616 -.4384316 -1.883451 1.889342 22.19598 Std Err .7056997 2749103 6636664 7279403 1.261329 1.100953 18.43117 t -0.05 1.52 -0.72 -0.60 -1.49 1.72 1.20 Number of obs F(6, 13) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.962 0.153 0.484 0.557 0.159 0.110 0.250 = = = = = = 20 0.95 0.4925 0.3053 -0.0154 87278 [95% Conf Interval] -1.558737 -.176882 -1.912126 -2.011051 -4.608387 -.4891222 -17.62214 1.490406 1.010933 9554026 1.134188 8414859 4.267806 62.0141 49 Year: 2015 Source SS df MS Model Residual 6.60483411 10.0950273 12 1.10080569 841252279 Total 16.6998615 18 927770081 lnroa Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons -.0364346 868427 1.11245 2839933 4.546734 -4.276677 -74.62384 Std Err 1.039923 8532148 1.3069 1.067593 3.986927 3.937781 63.09364 t -0.04 1.02 0.85 0.27 1.14 -1.09 -1.18 Number of obs F(6, 12) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.973 0.329 0.411 0.795 0.276 0.299 0.260 = = = = = = 19 1.31 0.3249 0.3955 0.0933 9172 [95% Conf Interval] -2.302232 -.9905684 -1.73504 -2.042092 -4.140035 -12.85636 -212.0931 2.229363 2.727422 3.959941 2.610078 13.2335 4.303012 62.84539 Appendix 4: Competitive environment test for each year from 2005 to 2015 Year: 2005 Source SS df MS Model Residual 486078192 175847382 081013032 021980923 Total 661925574 14 047280398 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 1710259 -.061811 2253465 0167112 -.2239483 1499971 1.178936 Std Err .1624723 0714747 0998619 0494148 2515911 2549989 2.750785 t 1.05 -0.86 2.26 0.34 -0.89 0.59 0.43 Number of obs F(6, 8) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.323 0.412 0.054 0.744 0.399 0.573 0.680 = = = = = = 15 3.69 0.0465 0.7343 0.5351 14826 [95% Conf Interval] -.2036358 -.2266321 -.0049353 -.0972395 -.8041184 -.4380315 -5.164384 5456877 10301 4556284 1306619 3562217 7380256 7.522256 50 Year: 2006 Source SS df MS Model Residual 585197551 14620288 10 097532925 014620288 Total 731400431 16 045712527 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons -.0129214 0247045 1810232 0100994 -.4616536 3875406 3.631798 Std Err t 121907 0391462 0581264 0238356 2087919 2020457 2.413897 -0.11 0.63 3.11 0.42 -2.21 1.92 1.50 df MS Number of obs F(6, 10) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.918 0.542 0.011 0.681 0.051 0.084 0.163 = = = = = = 17 6.67 0.0047 0.8001 0.6802 12091 [95% Conf Interval] -.2845471 -.0625187 0515095 -.0430095 -.9268711 -.0626453 -1.746699 2587043 1119278 310537 0632084 0035638 8377264 9.010294 Year: 2007 Source SS Model Residual 888893049 281298357 11 148148841 025572578 Total 1.17019141 17 068834789 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 121986 -.0152686 0757886 1869508 -.1565014 086016 9353664 Std Err .137683 0651792 1244352 0903695 2489488 2753634 3.242986 t 0.89 -0.23 0.61 2.07 -0.63 0.31 0.29 Number of obs F(6, 11) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.395 0.819 0.555 0.063 0.542 0.761 0.778 = = = = = = 18 5.79 0.0061 0.7596 0.6285 15991 [95% Conf Interval] -.1810522 -.158727 -.1980914 -.0119511 -.7044339 -.5200548 -6.202397 4250242 1281897 3496686 3858527 3914312 6920868 8.07313 51 Year: 2008 Source SS df MS Model Residual 331664243 305799445 13 055277374 023523034 Total 637463688 19 03355072 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 1428154 -.0075987 1313096 0129353 -.1941766 0998659 1.020942 Std Err t 1540233 0591575 0676427 109498 2623765 3002738 3.055346 0.93 -0.13 1.94 0.12 -0.74 0.33 0.33 df MS Number of obs F(6, 13) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.371 0.900 0.074 0.908 0.472 0.745 0.744 = = = = = = 20 2.35 0.0927 0.5203 0.2989 15337 [95% Conf Interval] -.1899318 -.1354007 -.0148236 -.2236207 -.7610065 -.5488362 -5.579732 4755625 1202032 2774428 2494913 3726534 7485679 7.621616 Year: 2009 Source SS Model Residual 440821482 101712773 11 073470247 009246616 Total 542534256 17 03191378 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 0042573 0639716 -.0140548 -.0906793 -.7706147 7398315 8.43747 Std Err .1396146 0497616 0574188 0807261 2627041 2832858 3.16949 t 0.03 1.29 -0.24 -1.12 -2.93 2.61 2.66 Number of obs F(6, 11) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.976 0.225 0.811 0.285 0.014 0.024 0.022 = = = = = = 18 7.95 0.0017 0.8125 0.7103 09616 [95% Conf Interval] -.3030324 -.0455529 -.1404327 -.2683563 -1.348822 1163236 1.461469 3115471 1734962 1123231 0869977 -.192407 1.363339 15.41347 52 Year: 2010 Source SS df MS Model Residual 375471641 092732776 13 062578607 00713329 Total 468204417 19 024642338 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 2432507 -.015878 12311 -.0185616 -.1743987 104272 1.043757 Std Err t 0950598 0153788 0702968 0660284 1438775 1419456 1.784831 2.56 -1.03 1.75 -0.28 -1.21 0.73 0.58 df MS Number of obs F(6, 13) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.024 0.321 0.103 0.783 0.247 0.476 0.569 = = = = = = 20 8.77 0.0006 0.8019 0.7105 08446 [95% Conf Interval] 0378864 -.0491019 -.0287569 -.1612072 -.4852271 -.2023828 -2.812135 448615 0173459 2749769 1240841 1364297 4109269 4.89965 Year: 2011 Source SS Model Residual 587413071 082975544 14 097902178 005926825 Total 670388615 20 033519431 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 2525096 0084993 2470642 -.0148249 -.3342394 1902967 3.655622 Std Err .0766813 0125548 0594103 0484647 1199594 1077324 1.461566 t 3.29 0.68 4.16 -0.31 -2.79 1.77 2.50 Number of obs F(6, 14) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.005 0.509 0.001 0.764 0.015 0.099 0.025 = = = = = = 21 16.52 0.0000 0.8762 0.8232 07699 [95% Conf Interval] 0880447 -.0184281 1196418 -.1187713 -.5915268 -.0407664 5208749 4169746 0354267 3744867 0891215 -.0769519 4213597 6.790369 53 Year: 2012 Source SS df MS Model Residual 377839064 115165242 14 062973177 008226089 Total 493004305 20 024650215 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 2987598 -.0244961 2981305 -.0049616 -.1379507 -.0030144 817631 Std Err t 0912247 0272375 0770944 0515513 1398396 1250312 1.786287 3.27 -0.90 3.87 -0.10 -0.99 -0.02 0.46 df MS Number of obs F(6, 14) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.006 0.384 0.002 0.925 0.341 0.981 0.654 = = = = = = 21 7.66 0.0009 0.7664 0.6663 0907 [95% Conf Interval] 1031022 -.0829146 1327794 -.1155282 -.4378768 -.2711795 -3.013574 4944174 0339224 4634815 105605 1619753 2651508 4.648836 Year: 2013 Source SS Model Residual 652845438 208011106 14 108807573 014857936 Total 860856544 20 043042827 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 4598432 -.0605893 3034108 0230929 1286036 -.1882785 -2.343462 Std Err .0986217 0413779 0984395 0696265 1901356 1723055 2.576107 t 4.66 -1.46 3.08 0.33 0.68 -1.09 -0.91 Number of obs F(6, 14) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.000 0.165 0.008 0.745 0.510 0.293 0.378 = = = = = = 21 7.32 0.0011 0.7584 0.6548 12189 [95% Conf Interval] 2483206 -.149336 092279 -.1262411 -.2791966 -.5578369 -7.868661 6713657 0281574 5145427 1724269 5364039 18128 3.181737 54 Year: 2014 Source SS df MS Model Residual 871510295 282860205 12 145251716 023571684 Total 1.1543705 18 064131694 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 0935929 1206669 2203759 -.0767775 -.1346797 0565882 -.6119559 Std Err t 0195613 0442037 1308829 0219741 162681 1474792 2.51814 4.78 2.73 1.68 -3.49 -0.83 0.38 -0.24 df MS Number of obs F(6, 12) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.000 0.018 0.118 0.004 0.424 0.708 0.812 = = = = = = 19 6.16 0.0038 0.7550 0.6324 15353 [95% Conf Interval] 0509724 0243553 -.0647934 -.124655 -.4891312 -.2647413 -6.098513 1362133 2169785 5055452 -.0289001 2197718 3779177 4.874601 Year: 2015 Source SS Model Residual 450489434 178121781 13 075081572 013701675 Total 628611215 19 033084801 lntrev Coef lnpl lnpk lnpf lnriskass lnasset lnbr _cons 3141671 -.0447322 2487665 0006393 -.1545482 0807011 1.134716 Std Err .1131827 0494622 079063 087635 2154835 1950423 3.032899 t 2.78 -0.90 3.15 0.01 -0.72 0.41 0.37 Number of obs F(6, 13) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.016 0.382 0.008 0.994 0.486 0.686 0.714 = = = = = = 20 5.48 0.0050 0.7166 0.5859 11705 [95% Conf Interval] 0696507 -.1515889 0779614 -.1886846 -.6200719 -.3406622 -5.417463 5586836 0621244 4195716 1899632 3109756 5020645 7.686896