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The studies in this series are published under the direction of the Department of Economics of Harvard University The department does not assume responsibility for the views expressed American Monetary Thought, 1920-1970 Perry G Mehrling Pretacc ix Acknowledgments xiii Introduction I Allyn Abbott Young (1876-1929) Intellectual Formation 13 Richard Elv and Esiqlish Political Economy 19 John hetn'evand the Lngic of'Scientifc Inquiry 24 Economic Theory and Statistics 28 Early Monetary Ideas 31 J Laurence Lauijhlin versus the Quantity Theory 33 Irivinrq Fisher and the Quantity Theory 39 War and Reconstruction 46 War Finance aitd Monetary I)isordcr 48 Tlie Monetary Standard 54 Why Gold? 57 Monetary Management in the Twenties 62 Index Numbers and Price Stabilization 66 Production and Speculation 69 Ralph Hawtrev and the Control of'Business Cycles 72 77)e Limits of Monctarv Policy 77 II Alvin Harvey Hansen (1887-1975) Intellectual Formation 85 Monev and Technology 92 Continental Business Cycle Theory 96 Money, Income, and Albert Aftalion 99 Depression 103 Money and Depression 104 The Depression as a Business Cycle 107 Hansen's Monetary Thought 110 Social Control versus Laissez-Faire 114 Stagnation 118 The New Frontier 119 Big Government 123 Money and Sound Finance 126 Hansen and Keynes 130 The Golden Age 137 The Makinq of American Keynesianism 140 Keynesianism versus Institutionalism 146 The New Economics and Money 150 The Origin of Monetary Walrasianism 154 III Edward Stone Shaw (1908-1994) Intellectual Formation 159 John B Canning and Ralph Hawtrev 166 London, Robertson, and Keynes 169 Money in a 7hcorvrf Bankinq 1,74 10 From Money to Finance 179 Money in a Tlicorv of Finance 184 Finance and U.S Economic Development 187 A Tlieorv for Policvmakers 192 A Theory fir Academics 19.5 11 Financial Structure and Economic Development 201 Financial Deepening 205 A 7heorv fbr Policvmakers 211 A Theory for Academics 215 Conclusion 221 Notes 229 Bibliography 245 Index 281 A reader who has already gone so far as to pick up this volume may be presumed to have some curiosity about its advertised subject A glance at the table of contents, however, is enough to alert the reader that the book is also a series of intellectual biographies of three professors of economics whose names are most likely unknown to the average reader and perhaps even to many professional economists This preface is intended to allay the reader's fears that the title is false packaging The hook is indeed about what it says it is about, and the story is indeed told through the biographies of three lives What then is the link between the two? As originally conceived, this volume was to be about the development of monetary thought in the United States during the period spanning the intellectual revolution that organized itself around J M Keynes' 1936 book, The General Theory of Emplovinent, Interest, and Monev It was not to he another hook on Keynes, of which there are many and some of very high quality, nor even a book on the American reception of Keynes Rather I meant to write a hook about American monetary thought more generally, taking as my thence the disappearance of a previously rather vigorous monetary discussion at about the time of the Keynesian revolution and the subsequent "rediscovery of money" in the decades after World War II My interest in understanding this period stemmed from my personal dissatisfaction with the current state of monetary economics, which led me to search the history of economics for alternative roads not taken Though unconventional with respect to my tastes in monetary theory, I was at first quite conventional in my conception of the history of economics as simply the history of doctrine In trying to understand the ideas of dead economists, however, I found it necessary to understand the minds that had produced those ideas and the problems that had spurred those minds into action As a consequence, rather than surveying the principal professional publications of famous monetary economists, I found myself reading all the publications, and as much of the unpublished writing as I could find, of a select few economists My subjects' own writing then led me to read also the hooks and articles that they had admired or detested and to study histories of the economic events they had been trying to understand as contemporaries Finally, in tracing the intellectual development of each individual mind, I found myself exploring the unfolding of a life and the expression of individual character In short, I found myself writing biography In writing biography, I Laced the problem of selection Whom to choose? It is clear in retrospect that I was fortunate in my conviction that the way to start the story was with Allyn Young When it came time to choose a second subject, and then a third, I inspected the list of potentials with an eye for continuing the story that Young's life and work had led nee to tell Choosing Alvin Hansen, and then Edward Shaw, I came to see that my story had evolved from one of intellectual discontinuity-the disappearance and rediscovery_ of money in economic discourse-into one of continuity It had become the story of the development of a particular strand of American monetary thought, one with peculiarly American origins in the Wisconsin institutionalist school of Richard T Ely and John R Commons As such, it had become the story of the ever anxious relationship between finance and democracy, the story of the evolving tension between the money interest and the public interest in American life Having begun by looking for an alternative to modern monetary orthodoxy, I found that alternative not on the fringe but at the very center of the development of American economics (Richard Ely was, it should be recalled, a founder of the American Economics Association.) Of course what was once central is today fringe, and therein lies another story, the outline of which is sketched in the Conclusion Suffice it to say for now what the biographical approach makes clear: that economists who came out of the institutionalist tradition had certain conceptions about the nature of their subject, the research methods appropriate to it, and their own role as economists in society They did not think of themselves as actors on a world-historical stage (like Keynes), nor as geniuses who by the power of pure thought are able to intuit the eternal laws of the universe (as say, Einstein) They were altogether more humble, more life-size, men who sought to understand the drama unfolding around them and to their bit toward ensuring a more satisfactory social evolution They were not, perhaps, Great Economists, and therein lies their interest For bud ding economists of today, these men provide models of possible lives, just as their works provide models for a possible economics In today's world of globally integrated financial markets, the question of the relationship between the money interest and the public interest has become paramount, but economics as a discipline has no answer for the question on everyone's lips Indeed, economics hardly recognizes the question as falling under its rubric, even as all practicing economists recognize, as citizens, that few questions are more important Whatever we may teach in our texts, economists know just as well as everybody else that unfettered laissez-faire capitalism is no panacea, and, even more, that it is not even a realistic possibility What keeps economists silent in the current turmoil is that we also know that market allocation mechanisms are essential to the workings of the complex modern economy and probably also essential to the always perilous maintenance of democratic political forms The three subjects of this volume knew these truths, and they struggled with the tension between them, but they were not silent For economists who pick up this volume, its main lesson may therefore he how it is possible to think and speak about what we need to think and speak about Indeed, the life and work of these three men make clear that this was one of the main lessons they were trying to teach Strout, R L 1941 Hansen of Harvard New Republic 105 (December 29): 888-90 Subercaseaux, Guillermo 1920 Le papier-monnaie Paris: Giard and Briere Sweery, Alan 1972 The Keynesians and government policy, 1933-39 American Economic Review 62, no (May): 116-24 Tarshis, Lorie 1947 The elements of economics, an introduction to the theory of price and employment Boston: Houghton Mifflin Temin, peter 1976 Did monetary forces cause the Great Depression? New York: Norton Terborgh, George 1945 The hogev ofeconomic maturity Chicago: Machinery and Allied Products Institute Timberlake, Richard H 1993 Monetary policy in the United States; An intellectualand institutional history Chicago: University of Chicago Press Tinbergcn, J 1937 An econometric approach to business cycle problems Paris: Hermann .1939 Statistical testing a/'business cvcle• theories Geneva: Lcaguc of Nations Tobin, James 1955 A dynamic aggregative model Journal of Political Economy 63 (April): 103-15 1958 Liquidity preference as behavior toward risk Review o 'Economic Studies 25(2), no 67 (February): 65-86 1963 Commercial banks as creators of "Money." Pages 408-19 in Banking and m onetarv studies, ed by Deane Carson Homewood, Ill.: Irwin 1965 Money and economic growth Econometrica 33, no (October): 671-84 .1969 A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 1, no (February): 15-29 1976 Hansen and public policy Quarterly Journal of Economics 90, no (February): 32-37 Tobin, James, and William C Brainard 1963 Financial intermediaries and the effectiveness of monetary controls American Economic Review 53, no (Max'): 383-400 Tobin, James, and S Weintraub 1960 Controversial issues in recent monetary policy: A symposium Review of Economics and Statistics 42 (August): 245-82 Tooke, Thomas 1844 An inquiry into the currency principle London: Longman, Brown, Green, and Longmans Tsiang, S C 1956 Liquidity preference and loanable funds theories, multiplier and velocity analysis: A synthesis American Economic Review 46 (September): 539-64 .1957 Liquidity preference and loanable funds theories of interest-A reply American Economic Review 47 (September): 673-78 1980 Keynes' "Finance" demand for liquidity, Robertson's loanable funds theory, and Friedman's monetarism Quarterly Journal rf'Economies96, no (May): 467-91 Tsiang, S C (ed by Meir Kohn) 1989 Finance constraints and the theory ofmoney; Selected papers San Diego: Academic press Turner, Frederick Jackson 1920 Frontier in American history New York: Holt Veblen, Thorstein 1903 The use of loan credit in modern business Pages 31-50 in Decennial Publications of the University of Chicago First Series, vol Chicago: Chicago University Press 1904 Theory of business enterprise New York: Scribner's 1906 The socialist economics of Karl Marx and his followers QuarterlyJournal of Economics 20, no (August): 575-95 Villard, H H 1948 Monetary theory Pages 314-51 in A survey of contemporary economics, ed by H S Ellis Philadelphia: American Economics Association Viner, Jacob 1924 Canada's balance of international indebtedness; An inductive study in the theory of international trade Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press Walker, Donald A 1987 Leon Walras Pages 852-63 in The new Palgrave, a dictionary of economics New York: Stockton Press Walras, Leon 1886 Theorie de la monnaie Lausanne: Corbaz 1954 [1926] Elements of pure economics, or the theory of social wealth, trans William Jaffe Homewood, Ill.: Irwin Walsh, Correa Moylan 1901 The measurement of general exchange value New York: Macmillan 1903 The fundamental problem in monetary science New York: Macmillan Warburg, Paul 1930 The Federal Reserve System, its origin and growth; reflections and recollections New York: Macmillan Warburg, James Paul 1934 The money muddle New York: Knopf Warren, George F., and Frank A Pearson 1933 Prices New York: Wiley Watkins, Leonard 1927 Bankers balances; A study of the effects of the Federal Reserve System on banking relationships Chicago: A W Shaw Co Watkins, Myron W., (with Allyn A Young) 1927 Industrial combinations and public policy; A study of combination, competition, and the common welfare Boston: Houghton Mifflin Westbrook, John H 1991 John Dewey and American democracy Ithaca, New York: Cornell White, Lawrence 1991 Money and capital in economic development In Capitalmarkets and development, by Steve H Hanke and Alan A Walters San Francisco: ICS Press Whittlesey, Charles R 1948 Principles and practices of money and banking New York: Macmillan Williams, John H 1922 German foreign trade and the reparations payments Quarterly Journal of Economics 36, no (May): 482-503 Wood, Elmer 1939 English theories of central bank control, 1819-1858 Unpublished Ph.D dissertation, Harvard University Working, Holbrook 1925 Monetary stabilization American Economic Review 15, no 1, supp (May): 82-84 Wright, David McCord 1940 The economic limit and economic burden of aninternally held national debt Quarterly Journal of Economics 55, no (November): 116-29 Yohe, William P 1990 The intellectual milieu at the Federal Reserve Board in the 1920s History of Political Lcon omv 22, no (fall): 465-88 Young, Allyn Abbott 1900 The comparative accuracy of different forms of quinquennial age groups Quarterly Publications of'the American Statistical Association 7, no 49/50 (March/June): 27-39 .1901 The enumeration of children Quarterly Publications of'the American Statistical Association 7, no 53 (March): 227-54 1902 Review of The theory of prosperity, by Simon N Patten Journal ofPolitical Economy 11, no I (December): 137-41 .1904 A discussion of age statistics U.S Bureau of the Census Washington, 1).C.: Government Printing Office 1905 The birth-rate in New Hampshire Quarterly Publications of theAmerican Statistical Association 9, no 71 (September): 263-91 1906 Age Pages 130-74 in Supplementary analysis and derivative tables T velfth Census Washington, 1).C.: Bureau of the Census 1909 California vital statistics Quarterly Publications of the American Statistical Association 11, no 87 (September): 543-50 .1910a The census age question Quarterly Publications of'the American Statistical Association 12, no 92 (December): 360-70 .191Ob Review of Report on national vitality, its wastes and conservation, by Irving Fisher Economic Bulletin (American Economic Association) 3, no (March): 51-53 .1911a Mr Mallock as statistician and British income statistics Quarterly Journal of'Economics 25, no (February): 376-86 .1911b Some limitations of the value concept Quarterly Journal of Economics 25, no (May) Reprinted as Chap 10 in Young (1927b) 1911c Review of The common sense of'political economy, by Philip H Wicksteed American Economic Review 1, no (March): 78-80 1912 Jevons's "Theory of political economy." American Economic Review 2, no (September) Reprinted as Chap 11 in Young (1927b) 1913a The vote on the single tax in Missouri American Economic Review 3, no (March): 203-6 .19136 Pigou's wealth and welfare Quarterly Journal of Economics 27, no (August): 672-86 .1913c Street car transportation in St Louis American Economic Revien'3, no (September): 71214 .1914a Review of Lairs of lrgges, by Henry Moore Annals of'the AmericanAcademy of'Political and Social Science (January): 282-84 .1914h Railway rate making: Discussion American Economic Review 4, no 1, supp (March): 8286 1914c Depreciation and rate control Quarterly Journal of Economics 28, no (May) Reprinted as Chap in Young (19276) .1915a Personal and impersonal taxation Proceedingsofthe Ninth Annual Conference of the National Tax Association Reprinted as Chap in Young (1927h) .1915b The Sherman Act and the new anti-trust legislation Journal of Political Economy 23, no 3-5 (March, April, May) Reprinted as Chap in Young (1927b) 1916 Nearing's income; King's wealth and income Quarterly Journal of Economics 30, no (May): 575-87 1917 Do the statistics of the concentration of wealth in the United States mean what they are commonly assumed to mean? American Statistical Association 15, no 117 (March): 471-84 Also in American Economic Review 7, no (March 1917) Reprinted as Chap in Young (1927b) 1918 National statistics in war and peace American Statistical Association 16, no 121 (March): 873-85 1920a The economics of the treaty New Republic (February 25): 388-89 19206 Review of Currency and credit, by Ralph Hawtrev, and Stabilizingthe dollar, by Irving Fisher Quarterly Journal of Economics 34, no (April): 520-32 1921a Commercial policy in German, Austrian, Hungarian, and Bulgarian Treaties Vol V, (:hap 1, pt in A history of'the peace conference, ed by H W V Temperley London: Institute of International Affairs 1921 b The economic settlement Pages 291-318 in What really happened at Paris, ed by Edward M House and Charles Seymour New York: Scribner's 1921 c The measurement of changes of the general price level Quarterly Journal of Economics 35, no (August) Reprinted as Chap 13 in Young (1927b) .1922 Introduction In Foreign exchange, the financing mechanism of' international commerce, by Edgar S Furniss Boston: Houghton Mifflin 1923a Fisher's "The making of index numbers." Quarterly Journal of Economics 37, no (February): 342-64 Reprinted as Chap 14 in Young (1927b) .1923b The United States and reparations Foreign Affairs (March 15): 35-47 1923c The trend of prices American Economic Review 13, no I (March) Reprinted as Chap in Young (19276) 1924a Index numbers Chap 12 in Handbook of mathematical statistics, ed by Henry Lewis Reitz Boston: Houghton Mifflin .1924b War debts, external and internal Foreign Affairs 2, no (March 15): 397-409 Reprinted as ('hap in Young (19276) 1924c Germany's capacity to pay American Statistical Association 19, no 146 (June): 242-46 A Rejoinder American Statistical Association 20, no 150 (June 1925): 260-61 1924d Review of Currency and credit and Monetary reconstruction, by Ralph Hawtrey American Economic Review 14, no (June): 349-52 .1924e An analysis of bank statistics for the United States: I The national banks, 1867-1914 Rei'ieir of Economics and Statistics 6, no (October): 284-96 .1924f Marshall on consumers' surplus in international trade Quarterly Journal of Economics 39, no (November): 144-50 Consumers' surplus in international trade: A supplementary note Quarterly Journal of Economics 39, no (May 1925): 498-99 1925a Hungary in 1925 Reprinted as Chap in Young (19276) .1925b Introduction In Social consequences of business cycles, by Maurice Beck Hexter Boston: Houghton Mifflin .1925c An analysis of bank statistics for the United States: II Seasonaland cyclical fluctuations, 1901-1914 Review of Economics and Statistics 7, no (January): 19-37 .1925d The trend of economics Quarterly journal of Economics 39, no (February) Reprinted as Chap 12 in Young (1927b) 1925e Review of The mathematicalgroundivork of economics, by A L Bowley American Statistical Association 20, no 149 (March): 133-35 1925f An analysis of bank statistics for the United States: III Regionaldifferences, 1901-1914 Review of Economics and Statistics 7, no (April): 86-104 .1925g Review of Papers relating to political economy, by F Y Edgeworth American Economic Review 15, no (December): 721-24 .1926a Introduction In Economic history of Europe, to the end of the MiddleAges, by Melvin M Knight Boston: Houghton Mifflin 19266 Economics and war American Economic Review 16, no (March) Reprinted as Chap I in Young (1927d) .1926c The aged poor of Massachusetts Quarterly Journal of Economics 40, no (May): 549-54 .1926d Introduction Pages vii-xx in La banque a Succursales dons le system bancaire des Etats Unis, by Jean Steels Gand: A Buveas (with H Van V Fay) 1927a The international economic conference World Peace Foundation Pamphlets, vol 10, no 1927b Economic problems new and old Boston: Houghton Mifflin 1927c Depreciation and reproduction cost Quarterly Journal of Economics 41, no (February 1927): 345-49 .1927d The structure and policies of the Federal Reserve System New York Times Annalist, May and 13 May Reprinted as Chap in Young (1927b) 1927e An analysis of hank statistics for the United States: IV The national banks: 1915-26 Review of Economics and Statistics 9, no (July): 121-41 .1927f Economics as a field of research Quarterly Journal of Economics 42, no (November): 125 Reprinted as Economics in Research in the social sciences, ed by Wilson Gee New York: Macmillan, 1929 1928a Introduction In Economic history of Europe, in modern times, byMelvin M Knight et at Boston: Houghton Mifflin 1928b An analysis of bank statistics fir the United States Cambridge: Harvard University Press Reprint of articles in Review of Economics andStatistics (October 1924, January 1925, April 1925, July 1927) 1928c English political economy Economica 22 (March): 1-15 1928d Review of London essays in economics: In honour of Edwin Cannan.Economica 22 (March): 113-17 1928e Review of The reserve banks and the money market, by W R Burgess Economica 23 (June): 229-31 1928f Review of On stimulus in the economic life, by Josiah Stamp Economic journal 38, no 150 (June): 286-88 .1928g Review of An economist's protest, by Edwin Canaan Economica 24 (December): 370-72 1928h Increasing returns and economic progress Economic journal 38, no 152 (December): 527-42 1929a Downward price trend probable, due to hoarding of gold by central banks New York Times Annalist, 18 January .1929b Capital, Economics, Labour, Land, Price, Rent, Supply andDemand, Utility, Wages, Wealth, Value Encyclopaedia Britannica 14th ed Reprinted in Journal of Economic Studies 17, no 3/4 (1990): 115-60 1929c LSE lectures 1927-29 Published in Journal of Economic Studies 17, no 3/4 (1990): 18-114 .1929d Economic changes since the war: Their meaning and their lessons Chap 37 in Book of popular science Vol 15 Ed by Dexter S Kimball New York: Grolier Society 1929e Big business: How the economic system grows and evolves like a living organism Chap 38 in Book of popular science Vol 15 Ed by Dexter S Kimball New York: Grolier Society Reprinted in Journal of Economic Studies 17, no 3/4 (1990) 1929f Review of A study in public finance, by Arthur C Pigou Economic Journal 39, no 153 (March 1929): 78-83 1929g Introduction In The French franc, 1914-1928, by Eleanor Lansing Dulles New York: Macmillan ... between the quantity theory of money on the one hand, which was associated with Populism and the borrowers' interest in inflation, and the anti-quantity theory of money on the other hand, which... were interested in aligning the money interest with the public interest, and to so they had to understand how money works Suggesting ways to improve the operation of the monetary system, their... determines the value of money? The answer in the quantity theoretic tradition is, The quantity of money Double the quantity of money, whether that money be gold coin or paper, and you halve the value