more information - www.cambridge.org/9781107032613 www.ebook3000.com Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics Most studies of the political economy of money focus on the laws protecting central banks from government interference; this book turns to the overlooked people who actually make monetary policy decisions Using formal theory and statistical evidence from dozens of central banks across the developed and developing worlds, this book shows that monetary policy agents are not all the same Molded by specific professional and sectoral backgrounds and driven by career concerns, central bankers with different career trajectories choose predictably different monetary policies These differences undermine the widespread belief that central bank independence is a neutral solution for macroeconomic management Instead, through careful appointment and retention of central bankers, partisan governments can and influence monetary policy – preserving a political trade-off between inflation and real economic performance, even in an age of legally independent central banks Christopher Adolph is Assistant Professor of Political Science and Adjunct Assistant Professor of Statistics at the University of Washington, Seattle, where he is also a core faculty member of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences He is a former obert Wood Johnson Scholar in Health Policy esearch and won the American Political Science Association’s Mancur Olson Award for best dissertation in political economy His research on comparative political economy and quantitative methods has appeared in American Political Science eview, Political Analysis, Social Science & Medicine, and other academic journals www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Cambridge Series in Comparative Politics General Editor Margaret Levi University of Washington, Seattle Assistant General Editors Kathleen Thelen Massachusetts Institute of Technology Erik Wibbels Duke University Associate Editors obert H Bates Harvard University Gary Cox Stanford University Stephen Hanson The College of William and Mary Torben Iversen Harvard University Stathis Kalyvas Yale University Peter Lange Duke University Helen Milner Princeton University Frances osenbluth Yale University Susan Stokes Yale University Other Books in the Series Ben W Ansell, From the Ballot to the Blackboard: The edistributive Political Economy of Education Leonardo Arriola, Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Election Campaigns David Austen-Smith, Jeffry A Frieden, Miriam A Golden, Karl Ove Moene, and Adam Przeworski, eds., Selected Works of Michael Wallerstein: The Political Economy of Inequality, Unions, and Social Democracy Andy Baker, The Market and the Masses in Latin America: Policy eform and Consumption in Liberalizing Economies Lisa Baldez, Why Women Protest: Women’s Movements in Chile Stefano Bartolini, The Political Mobilization of the European Left, –: The Class Cleavage (continued after “About the type, figures, and data”) www.ebook3000.com www.ebook3000.com Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics THE MYTH OF NEUTRALITY Christopher Adolph University of Washington, Seattle www.ebook3000.com Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City Cambridge University Press Avenue of the Americas, New York, -, www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/ © Christopher Adolph This publication is in copyright Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press First published Printed in the United States of America Grateful acknowledgement is made to the BBC, Antony Jay, and Jonathan Lynn for permission to reproduce selections from Yes Minister © BBC , A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Adolph, Christopher, – Bankers, bureaucrats, and central bank politics : the myth of neutrality / Christopher Adolph p cm – (Cambridge studies in comparative politics) Includes bibliographic references and index ---- (hardback) Monetary policy Banks and banking, Central – Political aspects Bureaucracy I Title II Series .. ./ – dc ---- Hardback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of s for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate www.ebook3000.com For Erika www.ebook3000.com Sir DESMOND Glazebrook, Chairman of Bartlett’s Bank: Like I say, it’s up to my board Could go either way, quite frankly, could go either way Sir HUMPHEY Appleby, Permanent Undersecretary for the Department of Administrative Affairs: I see DESMOND: Incidentally, to change the subject completely, you remember the new Ministry Co-Partnership Commission The chairmanship hasn’t been filled yet? Because should one be offered HUMPHEY: I can tell you that your name is on the short list There has to be some reason to appoint you, you see What about the advisory committee of dental establishments? Know anything about teeth? DESMOND: I’m a banker HUMPHEY: How about the Dumping at Sea epresentations Panel? Where you live, near the sea? DESMOND: Knightsbridge Just behind Harrod’s HUMPHEY: Not near enough Meat Marketing Board – know anything about meat? DESMOND: I eat it HUMPHEY: My dear chap, what you know about? DESMOND: Nothing, really I’m a banker HUMPHEY: There must be some minority group you can represent DESMOND: Bankers? “J B,” Yes Minister www.ebook3000.com List of figures x List of tables xiii List of boxes xv Abbreviations xvii Acknowledgements xix Agents, institutions, and the political economy of performance Career theories of monetary policy Central banker careers and inflation in industrial democracies Careers and the monetary policy process: Three mechanism tests Careers and inflation in developing countries How central bankers use their independence Partisan governments, labor unions, and monetary policy The politics of central banker appointment The politics of central banker tenure Conclusion: The dilemma of discretion Subject index About the type, figures, and data www.ebook3000.com austerity, Green Book, , Greenspan, Alan, , , , , , grid search, gross domestic product, , Hall-Franzese model, Halliburton, – Harris, Katherine, –, Harvard University, , heteroskedasticity, consistent standard errors, – Hoffmeyer, Erik, Holland, obert C., , hurdle models, hyperinflation, , – adaptation to, , and career effects, and causal heterogeneity, financial sector attitude towards, in ussia, Iceland bailouts, ideal point estimation, ideas, and monetary policy, identity matrix, ideology and inflation attitudes, image plots, IMF, see International Monetary Fund IMI, see inflation mitigating institutions implicit contracts, – imports, , , imputation, , , indefinitely-lived players, indexation, industry, see business inequality and inflation, and unions, inflation, , , –, and central bank independence, –, –, –, and central banker careers, , –, –, – and central banker tenure, , , , and central bankers’ economics training, , and imports, , and inequality, and political instability, and public debt, and trade openness, and wage demands, benefits of, chosen by rules, , expected, , in Latin America, in transition economies, indexation, long-run, models of, – opposition based on wealth, shocks, inflation mitigating institutions, inflation targeting, and central bank accountability, in the ECB, non-neutrality, unenforceability, inflation–unemployment tradeoff, , , , , , , –, , politics of, , , , – information sets, institutions, – and critical junctures, and economic performance, and preference formation, and preferences, complementarity of, in the developing world, interactions with agents, –, , interest rates, , and central bank conservatism, –, – and central bank independence, –, – and credibility, – ideal, – long-run, nominal, optimal, smoothing, , , interests, – international financial markets, International Financial Statistics, , , , International Longshore and Warehouse Union, International Monetary Fund, , , , , , financial sector influence on, investment banks effects on employee attitudes, Ireland bailouts, , central bank staff, economics training of central bankers, Isarescu, Mugur, Italy central bank staff, iterated games, Iversen model, , J P Morgan Chase, , Japan economics training of central bankers, financial sector employment, Liberal Democratic Party, Ministry of Finance, revolving door, shadow principals, zombie banks, jobs-for-policy bargains, see career-for-policy bargains Johnson, Simon, Kallas, Siim, Kashkari, Neel, kernel density estimation, kleptomaniacal lags, – Kocherlakota, Narayana, labor market price-taking, labor market reform, labor unions, see unions lagged dependent variables, and serially correlated confounders, , –, and serially correlated shocks, and speed of policy adjustment, bias in, –, , logged, Lagrange multiplier tests, latent variables, Latin America bankers in central banks, inflation in, liberalization of, technocrats, U.S.-trained economists, U.S.-trained economists in, Latvia, least squares, , , , , Lehman Brothers, leverage, statistical, Lewis, Michael, liberalization in Latin America, – in post-Communist states, likelihood ratio test, lobbying, , logarithmic scaling, logit link, logratio transformation, , – and zeroes, long series sample, , Lucas supply function, Madison, James, March, James, , Markov chain Monte Carlo, maximum likelihood, median voter theorem, memes, meritocracy, micro-behavior, microinteractions, – counterfactual interpretation, Miles, ufus E., Jr., Minneapolis Fed, missing data, mixed strategies, , mixture of distributions, models of monetary policy, – decision theoretic, –, – strategic, –, – monetarism, monetary policy and career experience, at the zero bound, career-for-policy bargains, – democratic responsiveness of, – expansionary, inflationary bias, models of, see models of monetary policy partisan effects on, preferences, reaction to economic conditions, , real effects, –, –, status quo bias of, , monetary policy autonomy, , –, monetary policy boards, decision making, evidence of influence, strategic voting on, United States, – votes, , – voting members, , money neutrality of, , real effects of, –, – monobanks, , moral hazard, , Morauta, Mekere, moving windows methodology, , , MPA, see monetary policy autonomy multi-period shock agent appointment as, , partisan government as, myth of neutrality, , , and central bankers, , and the courts, Nash bargaining, , NBC, – Netherlands economics training of central bankers, revolving door, New Zealand bankers in central bank, central bank staff, inflation targeting, Newman, Frank, Niyazov, Saparmurad, non-nested tests, nonaccommodation, –, – and central bank independence, and exchange rate stability, and partisan cycles, and unemployment, –, –, – credibility of, Normal distribution, , , , , multivariate, , , , – Norway economics training of central bankers, Noyer, Christian, numerical methods, , – Obama, Barack, , , OECD, see Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Ohio American presidential election in, optimal currency area, Orazov, Khudayberdy, ordered probit, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, , output gap, , , and central bank conservatism, and central bank independence, output stability, output volatility, , , and central bank independence, panel data, , , panel heteroskedasticity, , panel-corrected standard errors, , , , , pantouflage, Papua New Guinea, Pareto superiority, , partial pooling, – partisan business cycles, , and central bank independence, , and central bank nonaccommodation, and central banker appointment, , labor market contingent, , – lagged effects, permanent, , –, temporary, , , , , , – partisan center of gravity, , , , , partisan governments and central bank accountability, and central banker appointment, , , –, , –, and central banker tenure, –, and economic performance, and social policy, and unemployment, –, –, – party fractionalization, party manifestos, , , Party of European Socialists, peak associations, Peru central bank independence in, – Philadelphia Fed, PIMCO, Plosser, Charles I., policy process, policy signals, , costly, – political business cycles, , , political instability and inflation, pooling equilibrium, –, – preferences and agents, and ideology, central bankers, courts, distinct from institutions, inflation, of FOMC members, – price elasticity, price stability, , – principal components, principal–agent model, , , principal–agent problem, principals, , – information disadvantages of, multiple, , , – prisoners’ dilemma, privileged groups, probit, public banks in developing countries, public debt, , and central banker appointment, , and inflation, public votes, , , , punctuated equilibrium, – pure strategies, quantitative easing, R, , ainer, William, ratio-preserving counterfactuals, , –, – rational expectations, , reaction functions and institutional constraints, eagan, onald, regulatory capture, see capture theory relative risks, reliable partisans, – economists as, – epse, Einars, epublican Party, economic preferences, reputation, revealed interest rate targets, , – revolving door, , –, –, evidence in central banks, – financial regulators and, – in ussia, reform, with industry, robust regression, , , , – robustness, –, , –, and parsimony, ropeladder plots, , ogoff model, , ogoff, Kenneth, rolling regressions, omania, omney, Mitt, ropeladder plots, –, –, rpcf, ubin, obert, rug plots, , ussia, , Central Bank of, – Sachs, Jeffrey, SEC, see Securities Exchange Commission secret votes, , Securities Exchange Commission, selection on the dependent variable, sensitivity analysis, separating equilibrium, –, – separation of powers and central banker appointment, serial correlation, , , consistent standard errors, – Lagrange multiplier test, shadow principals, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , and human capital, , and social networks, , and turnover, financial sector as, , – government as, , – Sherman Act, shocks inflation, output, , signaling games, – Silva uete, Javier, simcf, simplex, , social pacts, social policy, and partisan governments, and wage restraint, –, –, – socialization, in investment banks, workplace, Spain inflation targeting, revolving door, star plots, – Stata, state capacity, Stiglitz, Joseph, stimulus, strategic voting and voting order, structural breaks, – and moving windows, subcompositions, – Supreme Court attitudinal models of, , Sweden bank nationalization, , bureaucrats in central bank, central banker tenure, centralized wage bargaining in, financial crisis, Switzerland central bank staff, economics training of central bankers, revolving door, t distribution multivariate, , , , – Taibbi, Matt, take-it-or-leave-it bargaining, TAP, see Troubled Asset elief Program Taylor principle, , Taylor ule, , – adaptive, as an empirical model, – asymmetric, forward-looking, , prescriptive, technocrats and financial market credibility, Latin American, ternary plots, – tile, time inconsistency, , , , , , , and conservative agents, , , , McCallum critique, time inconsistency problem, Tosovsky, Josef, trade openness and central banker appointment, , and inflation, trade policy, Trichet, Jean-Claude, Troubled Asset elief Program, – Turkmenistan, UBS Warburg, Ukraine, Ulmanis, Guntis, unemployment, and central bank conservatism, , – and central bank independence, – and central banker careers, – and central banker tenure, and centralized wage bargaining, –, –, –, – and monetary policy autonomy, – and nonaccommodation, , –, –, – and partisan governments, –, –, – expected, , hump-shaped relationship with centralized wage bargaining, long-run, natural rate, volatility of, , unions and inflation, and socialization, encompassing, , sector-level, strategic interaction with central banks, –, –, –, – wage-setting, unitary actor assumption, , United Kingdom central bank staff, central banker tenure, civil service competition, economics training of central bankers, inflation targeting, revolving door, United States central bank staff, congressional influence on monetary policy, , , decentralized labor market of, deposit institutions, economics training of central bankers, financial sector preferences, financial sector recovery, investment banks, presidential influence on monetary policy, , revolving door, , Senate, Treasury officials, universal banking, University of Chicago, , vampire squid, varieties of capitalism, Vitter, David, Volcker, Paul, , , , wage bargaining centralization, see centralized wage bargaining wage drift, wage elasticity, wage restraint and social policy, –, –, – Webb, ichard, Weber, Max, – weighted mean, , weighted median, Wittgenstein, Ludwig, World Bank, World Development Indicators, Yeltsin, Boris, Yushchenko, Victor, Zelig, zero-inflated models, zeroes in compositional data, –, – replacement, structural, trace, zombie banks, zombie policies, , , using XeTeX, a powerful new implementation of the TeX typesetting system The text is set in Bembo Book; titles, figures, and captions in Gill Sans; computer code in Inconsolata; text boxes in Archer; and Greek symbols in Porson Most of the figures were produced in R and Adobe Illustrator Many graphics, including the ropeladder plots for model exploration and robustness analysis, the lineplots for assessing evolution of time series variables, and the scatterplots with detailed marginal distributions, were produced using the tile package for R The latest version of this package is available from chrisadolph.com, where the original data collected for this study and other replication materials, including the Escore package for career data processing, can also be found Other Books in the Series (continued from page iii ) obert Bates, When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa Mark Beissinger, Nationalist Mobilization and the Collapse of the Soviet State Nancy Bermeo, ed., Unemployment in the New Europe Carles Boix, Democracy and edistribution Carles Boix, Political Parties, Growth, and Equality: Conservative and Social Democratic Economic Strategies in the World Economy Catherine Boone, Merchant Capital and the oots of State Power in Senegal, – Catherine Boone, Political Topographies of the African State: Territorial Authority and Institutional Change Michael Bratton, obert Mattes, and E Gyimah-Boadi, Public Opinion, Democracy, and Market eform in Africa Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: egime Transitions in Comparative Perspective Valerie Bunce, Leaving Socialism and Leaving the State: The End of Yugoslavia, the Soviet Union, and Czechoslovakia Daniele Caramani, The Nationalization of Politics: The Formation of National Electorates and Party Systems in Europe John M Carey, Legislative Voting and Accountability Kanchan Chandra, Why Ethnic Parties Succeed: Patronage and Ethnic Headcounts in India Eric C C Chang, Mark Andreas Kayser, Drew A Linzer, and onald ogowski, Electoral Systems and the Balance of Consumer-Producer Power José Antonio Cheibub, Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy uth Berins Collier, Paths toward Democracy: The Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America Pepper D Culpepper, uiet Politics and Business Power: Corporate Control in Europe and Japan afaela M Dancygier, Immigration and Conflict in Europe Christian Davenport, State epression and the Domestic Democratic Peace Donatella della Porta, Social Movements, Political Violence, and the State Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Federalism, Fiscal Authority, and Centralization in Latin America Thad Dunning, Crude Democracy: Natural esource Wealth and Political egimes Gerald Easter, econstructing the State: Personal Networks and Elite Identity Margarita Estevez-Abe, Welfare and Capitalism in Postwar Japan: Party, Bureaucracy, and Business Henry Farrell, The Political Economy of Trust: Institutions, Interests, and Inter-Firm Cooperation in Italy and Germany Karen E Ferree, Framing the ace in South Africa: The Political Origins of acial Census Elections M Steven Fish, Democracy Derailed in ussia: The Failure of Open Politics obert F Franzese, Macroeconomic Policies of Developed Democracies oberto Franzosi, The Puzzle of Strikes: Class and State Strategies in Postwar Italy Timothy Frye, Building States and Markets After Communism: The Perils of Polarized Democracy Geoffrey Garrett, Partisan Politics in the Global Economy Scott Gehlbach, epresentation through Taxation: evenue, Politics, and Development in Postcommunist States Edward L Gibson, Boundary Control: Subnational Authoritarianism in Federal Democracies Jane Gingrich, Making Markets in the Welfare State: The Politics of Varying Market eforms Miriam Golden, Heroic Defeats: The Politics of Job Loss Jeff Goodwin, No Other Way Out: States and evolutionary Movements Merilee Serrill Grindle, Changing the State Anna Grzymala-Busse, ebuilding Leviathan: Party Competition and State Exploitation in Post-Communist Democracies Anna Grzymala-Busse, edeeming the Communist Past: The egeneration of Communist Parties in East Central Europe Frances Hagopian, Traditional Politics and egime Change in Brazil Henry E Hale, The Foundations of Ethnic Politics: Separatism of States and Nations in Eurasia and the World Mark Hallerberg, olf anier Strauch, and Jürgen von Hagen, Fiscal Governance in Europe Stephen E Hanson, Post-Imperial Democracies: Ideology and Party Formation in Third epublic France, Weimar Germany, and Post-Soviet ussia Silja Häusermann, The Politics of Welfare State eform in Continental Europe: Modernization in Hard Times Gretchen Helmke, Courts Under Constraints: Judges, Generals, and Presidents in Argentina Yoshiko Herrera, Imagined Economies: The Sources of ussian egionalism J ogers Hollingsworth and obert Boyer, eds., Contemporary Capitalism: The Embeddedness of Institutions John D Huber and Charles Shipan, Deliberate Discretion? The Institutional Foundations of Bureaucratic Autonomy Ellen Immergut, Health Politics: Interests and Institutions in Western Europe Torben Iversen, Capitalism, Democracy, and Welfare Torben Iversen, Contested Economic Institutions Torben Iversen, Jonas Pontussen, and David Soskice, eds., Unions, Employers, and Central Banks: Macroeconomic Coordination and Institutional Change in Social Market Economies Thomas Janoski and Alexander M Hicks, eds., The Comparative Political Economy of the Welfare State Joseph Jupille, Procedural Politics: Issues, Influence, and Institutional Choice in the European Union Stathis Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War David C Kang, Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Capitalism in South Korea and the Philippines Stephen B Kaplan, Globalization and Austerity Politics in Latin America Junko Kato, egressive Taxation and the Welfare State Orit Kedar, Voting for Policy, Not Parties: How Voters Compensate for Power Sharing obert O Keohane and Helen B Milner, eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics Herbert Kitschelt, The Transformation of European Social Democracy Herbert Kitschelt, Kirk A Hawkins, Juan Pablo Luna, Guillermo osas, and Elizabeth J Zechmeister, Latin American Party Systems Herbert Kitschelt, Peter Lange, Gary Marks, and John D Stephens, eds., Continuity and Change in Contemporary Capitalism Herbert Kitschelt, Zdenka Mansfeldova, adek Markowski, and Gabor Toka, Post-Communist Party Systems David Knoke, Franz Urban Pappi, Jeffrey Broadbent, and Yutaka Tsujinaka, eds., Comparing Policy Networks Allan Kornberg and Harold D Clarke, Citizens and Community: Political Support in a epresentative Democracy Amie Kreppel, The European Parliament and the Supranational Party System David D Laitin, Language epertoires and State Construction in Africa Fabrice E Lehoucq and Ivan Molina, Stuffing the Ballot Box: Fraud, Electoral eform, and Democratization in Costa ica Mark Irving Lichbach and Alan S Zuckerman, eds., Comparative Politics: ationality, Culture, and Structure, nd Edition Evan Lieberman, ace and egionalism in the Politics of Taxation in Brazil and South Africa Pauline Jones Luong, Institutional Change and Political Continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia Pauline Jones Luong and Erika Weinthal, Oil Is Not a Curse: Ownership Structure and Institutions in Soviet Successor States Julia Lynch, Age in the Welfare State: The Origins of Social Spending on Pensioners, Workers, and Children Doug McAdam, John McCarthy, and Mayer Zald, eds., Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements Lauren M MacLean, Informal Institutions and Citizenship in ural Africa: isk and eciprocity in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire Beatriz Magaloni, Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and Its Demise in Mexico James Mahoney, Colonialism and Postcolonial Development: Spanish America in Comparative Perspective James Mahoney and Dietrich ueschemeyer, eds., Historical Analysis and the Social Sciences Scott Mainwaring and Matthew Soberg Shugart, eds., Presidentialism and Democracy in Latin America Isabela Mares, The Politics of Social isk: Business and Welfare State Development Isabela Mares, Taxation, Wage Bargaining, and Unemployment Cathie Jo Martin and Duane Swank, The Political Construction of Business Interests: Coordination, Growth, and Equality Anthony W Marx, Making ace, Making Nations: A Comparison of South Africa, the United States, and Brazil Bonnie M Meguid, Party Competition between Unequals: Strategies and Electoral Fortunes in Western Europe Joel S Migdal, State in Society: Studying How States and Societies Constitute One Another Joel S Migdal, Atul Kohli, and Vivienne Shue, eds., State Power and Social Forces: Domination and Transformation in the Third World Scott Morgenstern and Benito Nacif, eds., Legislative Politics in Latin America Layna Mosley, Global Capital and National Governments Layna Mosley, Labor ights and Multinational Production Wolfgang C Müller and Kaare Strøm, Policy, Office, or Votes? Maria Victoria Murillo, Labor Unions, Partisan Coalitions, and Market eforms in Latin America Maria Victoria Murillo, Political Competition, Partisanship, and Policy Making in Latin American Public Utilities Monika Nalepa, Skeletons in the Closet: Transitional Justice in Post-Communist Europe Ton Notermans, Money, Markets, and the State: Social Democratic Economic Policies since Eleonora Pasotti, Political Branding in Cities: The Decline of Machine Politics in Bogotá, Naples, and Chicago Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America oger D Petersen, Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and esentment in Twentieth-Century Eastern Europe oger D Petersen, Western Intervention in the Balkans: The Strategic Use of Emotion in Conflict Simona Piattoni, ed., Clientelism, Interests, and Democratic epresentation Paul Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State? eagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of etrenchment Marino egini, Uncertain Boundaries: The Social and Political Construction of European Economies Marc Howard oss, Cultural Contestation in Ethnic Conflict Lyle Scruggs, Sustaining Abundance: Environmental Performance in Industrial Democracies Jefferey M Sellers, Governing from Below: Urban egions and the Global Economy Yossi Shain and Juan Linz, eds., Interim Governments and Democratic Transitions Beverly Silver, Forces of Labor: Workers’ Movements and Globalization since Theda Skocpol, Social evolutions in the Modern World Dan Slater, Ordering Power: Contentious Politics and Authoritarian Leviathans in Southeast Asia egina Smyth, Candidate Strategies and Electoral Competition in the ussian Federation: Democracy Without Foundation ichard Snyder, Politics after Neoliberalism: eregulation in Mexico David Stark and László Bruszt, Postsocialist Pathways: Transforming Politics and Property in East Central Europe Sven Steinmo, The Evolution of Modern States: Sweden, Japan, and the United States Sven Steinmo, Kathleen Thelen, and Frank Longstreth, eds., Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis Susan C Stokes, Mandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America Susan C Stokes, ed., Public Support for Market eforms in New Democracies Milan W Svolik, The Politics of Authoritarian ule Duane Swank, Global Capital, Political Institutions, and Policy Change in Developed Welfare States Sidney Tarrow, Power in Movement: Social Movements and Contentious Politics, evised and Updated rd Edition Kathleen Thelen, How Institutions Evolve: The Political Economy of Skills in Germany, Britain, the United States, and Japan Charles Tilly, Trust and ule Daniel Treisman, The Architecture of Government: ethinking Political Decentralization Guillermo Trejo, Popular Movements in Autocracies, eligion, epression, and Indigenous Collective Action in Mexico Lily Lee Tsai, Accountability without Democracy: How Solidary Groups Provide Public Goods in ural China Joshua Tucker, egional Economic Voting: ussia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech epublic, – Ashutosh Varshney, Democracy, Development, and the Countryside Jeremy M Weinstein, Inside ebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence Stephen I Wilkinson, Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic iots in India Andreas Wimmer, Waves of War: Nationalism, State Formation, and Ethnic Exclusion in the Modern World Jason Wittenberg, Crucibles of Political Loyalty: Church Institutions and Electoral Continuity in Hungary Elisabeth J Wood, Forging Democracy from Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador Elisabeth J Wood, Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador