Đối với những Newbie hoặc những bạn tuy đã tham gia thị trường lâu, nhưng vẫn loay hoay chưa tìm được cho 1 mình 1 hệ thống giao dịch phù hợp, hoặc là đã có rồi nhưng vẫn có tinh thần học hỏi, tìm hiểu sâu hơn về nhịp chạy của thị trường, thì theo cá nhân mình thì phương pháp Price Action có lẽ sẽ là 1 chủ đề mà các bạn nên dành thời gian để tìm hiểu. Do đó, hôm nay mình xin chia sẻ với các bạn bộ sách của Galen Woods: How to trade with Price action. Review sơ qua về cuốn sách: 1 – Kickstarter: cuốn này giới thiệu sơ qua về Price Action, các mô hình nến và mô hình giá phổ biến trên thị trường 2 – Strategies: cuốn này nói về 10 system tương ứng với 10 mô hình Price action được nói đến trong cuốn 1 3 – Master: kết hợp mô hình giá với các Indicator, cách nhận diện Trader bị mắc bẫy và cách tận dụng nó để kiếm lợi nhuận,v.v
2 ND EDITION Day Trading with Price Action Volume II: Market Bias Galen Woods Trading Setups Review Copyright © 2014-2016 Galen Woods PDF eBook Edition Cover Design by Beverley S www.tradingsetupsreview.com i Copyright © 2014-2016 by Galen Woods (Singapore Business Registration No 53269377M) All rights reserved First Edition, September 2014 Second Edition, April 2016 Published by Galen Woods (Singapore Business Registration No 53269377M) All charts were created with NinjaTrader™ NinjaTrader™ is a Registered Trademark of NinjaTrader™, LLC All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without written permission from the publisher, except as permitted by Singapore Copyright Laws Affiliate Program If you find this course to be valuable and wish to offer it for sale to your own customers or readers, please contact Galen Woods to be an affiliate and get a percentage of each sales as commission Contact Information Galen Woods can be reached at: Website: http://www.tradingsetupsreview.com Email: galenwoods@tradingsetupsreview.com www.tradingsetupsreview.com ii Disclaimer The information provided within the Day Trading with Price Action Course and any supporting documents, software, websites, and emails is only for the purposes of information and education We don't know you so any information we provide does not take into account your individual circumstances, and should NOT be considered advice Before investing or trading on the basis of this material, both the author and publisher encourage you to first seek professional advice with regard to whether or not it is appropriate to your own particular financial circumstances, needs and objectives The author and publisher believe the information provided is correct However we are not liable for any loss, claims, or damage incurred by any person, due to any errors or omissions, or as a consequence of the use or reliance on any information contained within the Day Trading with Price Action Course and any supporting documents, software, websites, and emails Reference to any market, trading time frame, analysis style or trading technique is for the purpose of information and education only They are not to be considered a recommendation as being appropriate to your circumstances or needs All charting platforms and chart layouts (including time frames, indicators and parameters) used within this course are being used to demonstrate and explain a trading concept, for the purposes of information and education only These charting platforms and chart layouts are in no way recommended as being suitable for your trading purposes Charts, setups and trade examples shown throughout this product have been chosen in order to provide the best possible www.tradingsetupsreview.com iii demonstration of concept, for information and education purposes They were not necessarily traded live by the author U.S Government Required Disclaimer: Commodity Futures Trading and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDEROR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN www.tradingsetupsreview.com iv Contents Chapter - Introduction Chapter – Finding a Tradable Time Frame 2.1 - Price Action Time Frame Index (PATI) 2.2 - Finding Tradable Time Frames with PATI 2.3 - Minimum Tradable Time Frame (MTTF) 12 2.4 - Useful Notes for Finding the Optimal Trading Time Frame and Market 14 2.4.1 - Optimal Trading Environment (OTE) Index 14 2.4.2 - Insufficient Trading Opportunities 16 2.5 - Alternative Chart Types 18 2.6 - Conclusion 21 Chapter – Swings 23 3.1 - Defining Swings 24 3.1.1 - Exercises: Price Swings 34 3.1.2 - Solutions: Price Swings 37 3.2 - Swing Pivots 39 3.3 - Pivot Types 43 3.3.1 - Basic Pivot 45 3.3.2 - Tested Pivot 46 3.3.3 - Valid Pivot 56 3.3.4 - Exercises: Pivot Types 75 3.3.5 - Solutions: Pivot Types 78 3.4 - Swinging It: Putting Them Together 80 3.5 - Conclusion 86 Chapter – Trend Lines 88 www.tradingsetupsreview.com v 4.1 - Drawing Trend Lines 90 4.1.1 - New Trend Lines 90 4.1.2 - New Valid Pivots 93 4.1.3 - Contains All Price Action Before The Trend Extreme 95 4.1.4 - When to Stop Adjusting a Trend Line 98 4.1.5 - Not Too Many Trend Lines 101 4.2 - Interpreting Trend Lines 102 4.2.1 - 6E 60-Minute 103 4.2.2 - ES 5-Minute 107 4.2.3 - 6J 30-Minute 112 4.3 - Conclusion 115 Chapter – Evaluating Market Bias 117 5.1 - Our Thought Process 118 5.2 - Step-by-Step Guide 122 5.2.1 - Trend Line Break 124 5.2.2 - Multiple Trend Lines 132 5.2.3 - Large Gap Between Price And Trend Line 141 5.2.4 - Almost Flat Trend Lines 146 5.2.5 - Short-Lived Trend Lines 148 5.2.6 - A Struggling Trend 151 5.3 - Conclusion 154 www.tradingsetupsreview.com vi Chapter - Introduction In trading, the market bias is king The market bias is simply the tendency of a market to move in a certain direction Is the market more likely to move up or move down? Answering this question is the cornerstone of successful trading After you master the art of interpreting the price action context and deciphering the market bias, you have a thousand and one ways to trade profitably However, there is no easy answer to that question This is because the market is lying constantly Don’t blame it You are part of it Not to mention that the market has to lie It has no choice It has to deceive traders into thinking that it is moving down, in order to move up It has to convince traders that it is rising up, in order to fall further The logic is simple Price rises until there is no one interested to buy at a higher price Then, it falls Price falls until nobody wants to sell at a lower price Then, it rises This story repeats and gives birth to the market swings we see on all trading time frames It follows that for the market to trend either up or down, it must so through a series of rising and falling In bull trends, the total magnitude of the rising swings is larger than that of the falling swings The opposite is true for bear trends – the total magnitude of downswings is larger than that of upswings www.tradingsetupsreview.com Chapter - Introduction In a bull trend, each time it falls, it is tricking some poor bearish traders into the market, before rising up again In a bear trend, each pullback upwards represents the same trickery in reverse Facing such a deceptive market, how we determine its bias? The key is to focus and stay relevant This is also where the difference between “market bias” and “trend” matters In this series, I will use these two terms interchangeably But, there is a subtle difference between them Trend exists on many levels Major trend, intermediate trend, minor trend, monthly trend, daily trend, hourly trend, and the list goes on Trying to figure out the trend of all degrees is not only impossible, but impractical for trading The secular trend lasting several years is not relevant for the day trader Similarly, the 5-second trend is worthless to the pension fund investing with a long-term horizon Think of market bias as the relevant trend We need to figure out the degree of trend that is useful for our trading time frame We must constantly try to interpret the trend that actually gives us an edge in our trading The trend in the appropriate trading time frame dictates our market bias Our job is to find the relevant trend (i.e the market bias), and focus on it In this volume, you will learn the essential tools for determining the market bias Our approach uses pure price action that involves observing market swings and drawing trend lines You will learn how to implement these basic concepts to the market objectively Towards the end of this volume, you will integrate them to form your assessment of the market bias (For clarification, the charts in this series are in the GMT +8 time zone.) www.tradingsetupsreview.com Chapter – Finding a Tradable Time Frame Our main analysis tool is the price chart It is a visual depiction of market prices over time Our choice of trading time frame affects how many bars we have in our charts and how the bars look Hence, the trading time frame has an important influence over our analysis context Thus, deciding our trading time frame is Step Zero An oft-repeated claim of price action traders is that price action works in all time frames This claim is largely true However, some trading time frames are not amenable to price action analysis Price action involves pattern recognition By claiming that price action works in all time frames, we are assuming that charts of all time frames are visually similar Compare Figure 2-1 to Figure 2-2 Both charts show 6A futures One chart shows 30-minute bars while the other shows 30second bars Do they look the same? If not, how are they different? www.tradingsetupsreview.com Chapter – Evaluating Market Bias This price bar broke above the resistance by just one tick to confirm the valid low With the valid low, we drew a bull trend line However, right after the trend line was added to the chart, the market started falling and swiftly broke below the trend line Despite an impressive five-bar bullish thrust, the rise above the resistance was rejected quickly This instance was similar to the first bull trend line Just after we drew the bull trend line, the market fell and broke the trend line In this case, the failed bull trend lines not only confirmed the bearish bias, they were also potential trend line break setups Go back and look at the examples again You will notice that trend lines that fail quickly usually represent a pullback on a higher time frame This is why there’s no need to complicate our analysis with a higher time frame If you learn how to interpret what you see on your active time frame well enough, you are not missing out anything critical 5.2.6 - A Struggling Trend Trends pause and look like they are going to reverse They keep doing that But usually, they resume after a few tries A bull trend resumes by making a new trend high A bear trend resumes by pushing to a new trend low When a trend does not resume after a few tries, it is a struggling trend Struggling trends are usually a prelude to a www.tradingsetupsreview.com 151 Chapter – Evaluating Market Bias prolonged sideways market or even a reversal It pays to trade carefully when you observe a struggling trend Use four attempts as a rule of thumb If a market tries to resume the existing trend for four swings and fails, it is struggling Figure 5-20 below shows an example It shows the later part of a session in the CL futures market Existing bearish bias The blue lines mark out eight swings, of which four swings tried to resume the trend, but failed Push to new low rejected (early warning) Figure 5-20 A struggling bear trend ended with an upwards drift The market bias was bearish as shown by this bear trend line This push to a new trend low was rejected clearly by the market It was an early warning that this downwards trend might be over However, it was in no way conclusive of a bullish takeover Compare this price action (blue lines) to the earlier pullbacks in this downwards trend The earlier pullbacks resumed the www.tradingsetupsreview.com 152 Chapter – Evaluating Market Bias trend with two downswings At this point, the bear trend failed to resume even after four downswings It was struggling Combined with the bullish rejection mentioned in point 2, it was reasonable to hold back our search for bearish setups If you were short, it’s a good time to cover your position However, it was premature to adopt a bullish bias with confidence The market drifted upwards until the end of the session Of course, not all struggling trends reverse nicely like Figure 5-20 Let’s take a look at another example of a struggling trend in Figure 5-21 The market was bearish Bull trend line that failed fast; bearish The bearish trend resumed only with the fifth downswing Figure 5-21 Struggling, or not? The market was in a bearish trend This pullback took four downswings to resume the bearish trend The pullback upwards was strong enough to form a bull trend line But it was a bull trend line that failed almost www.tradingsetupsreview.com 153 Chapter – Evaluating Market Bias immediately after forming Recall from the last section that this was a bearish sign Soon after resuming the bearish trend, the market lapsed into another multi-swing pullback The fourth downswing in the pullback could not resume the trend Technically, according to the rule of thumb I mentioned, it was a struggling trend But trading is not about rules of thumb It is about what is really happening in the market There were good reasons to downplay this supposed struggle of the bear trend First, remember that we just saw a short-lived bull trend line It pushed our market bias towards the bearish side, and made us more sceptical of the bullish price action that followed Second, the broken bull trend line has clearly flipped into a resistance Look at how price bounced off the bull trend line Given such a bearish context, the inability to resume the trend by the fourth downswing was not a deal-breaker for traders who were looking to short 5.3 - Conclusion This is a tough chapter to digest But this is the closest you get to assessing the market bias in real trading, without actually trading Getting the market bias right is the key to our trading edge As you will see, price patterns only help to limit our risk Our trading edge comes chiefly from getting the market bias right If you get the market bias right, you can pretty much enter along with the bias with any setup www.tradingsetupsreview.com 154 Chapter – Evaluating Market Bias A few useful tips for deciphering the market bias: Do not be too quick to decide that the market bias has changed When you cannot decide if the market bias has changed, it is always safer to assume that it has not and that the current bias is still intact Of course, nothing is safer than just stepping aside and waiting for more price action to unfold Regardless of the market bias, not trade against the most recent strong momentum By strong momentum, I am referring to tested pivots that manage to clear their preceding swing pivot If the most recent tested high showed strong bullish momentum, not take any short trades until there are signs of bullish momentum fading or bearish momentum returning (Like the example in Figure 5-14.) Watch out for the first tested pivot of each session This is especially applicable for sessions that open with a gap away from the previous session Wait for the first tested pivot of the session and see what it shows you about the momentum of the session If the first tested pivot of the session shows strong bullish momentum, you should consider that in your market bias assessment MARKET BIAS Always have a directional bias in the market but be prepared to change it Trend lines are our best tool for mapping the market structure Don’t be afraid to step aside when the market bias is unclear www.tradingsetupsreview.com 155 .. .Day Trading with Price Action Volume II: Market Bias Galen Woods Trading Setups Review Copyright © 20 14 -20 16 Galen Woods PDF eBook Edition Cover Design by Beverley S www.tradingsetupsreview.com... Process 118 5 .2 - Step-by-Step Guide 122 5 .2. 1 - Trend Line Break 124 5 .2. 2 - Multiple Trend Lines 1 32 5 .2. 3 - Large Gap Between Price And Trend Line 141 5 .2. 4 - Almost Flat... 2. 1 - Price Action Time Frame Index (PATI) 2. 2 - Finding Tradable Time Frames with PATI 2. 3 - Minimum Tradable Time Frame (MTTF) 12 2.4 - Useful Notes for Finding the Optimal Trading