The following will be discussed in this chapter: Cognitive biases, types of cognitive biases, organizational learning & creativity, delphi technique, decision making, types of decision making, models of decision making, devil’s advocacy and dialectical inquiry.
Management Practices Lecture Recap • Decision Making • Types of Decision Making • Models of Decision Making • Devil’s Advocacy and Dialectical Inquiry Today’s Lecture • Cognitive Biases • Types of Cognitive Biases • Organizational Learning & Creativity • Delphi Technique Cognitive Biases Suggests decision makers use heuristics to deal with bounded rationality • – A heuristic is a rule of thumb to deal with complex situations – If the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor decisions result from its use Systematic errors can result from use of an incorrect heuristic • – These errors will appear over and over since the rule used to make decision is flawed Types of Cognitive Biases Prior Hypothesis Representativeness Illusion of Control Cognitive Biases Escalating Commitment Types of Cognitive Biases Prior hypothesis bias: manager allows strong prior beliefs about a relationship between variables and makes decisions based on these beliefs even when evidence shows they are wrong Representativeness: decision maker incorrectly generalizes a decision from a small sample or one incident Illusion of control: manager over-estimates their ability to control events Escalating commitment: manager has already committed considerable resource to project and then commits more even after feedback indicates Group Decision Making Many decisions are made in a group setting – Groups tend to reduce cognitive biases and can call on combined skills, and abilities There are some disadvantages with groups: Group think: biased decision making resulting from group members striving for agreement – – Usually occurs when group members rally around a central manger’s idea (CEO), and become blindly committed without considering alternatives The group tends to convince each member that • Improved Group Decision Making Devil’s Advocacy: one member of the group acts as the devil’s advocate and critiques the way the group identified alternatives – • problems with the alternative Dialectical inquiry: two different groups are assigned to the problem and each group evaluates the other group’s alternatives – • Points out selection Top managers then hear each group present their alternatives and each group can critique the other Promote diversity: by increasing the Devil’s Advocacy v Dialectic Inquiry Devil’s Advocacy Presentation of alternative Dialectic Inquiry Alter Alter Critique of alternative Debate the two alternatives Reassess alternative accept, modify, reject Reassess alternatives accept or 2, combine • Organizational Learning & Creativity Organizational Learning: Managers seek to improve member’s ability to understand the organization and environment so as to raise effectiveness – • The learning organization: managers try to improve the people’s ability to behave creatively to maximize organizational learning Creativity: is the ability of the decision maker to discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of action – A creative management staff and employees 10 are the key to the learning organization Senge’s Learning Organization Principles Build complex, challenging mental models Develop Personal Mastery Build Shared Vision Encourage Systems Thinking Promote Team Learning 11 Creating a Learning Organization Senge suggests top managers follow several steps to build in learning: – Personal Mastery: managers empower employees and allow them to create and explore – Mental Models: challenge employees to find new, better methods to perform a task – Team Learning: is more important than individual learning since most decisions are made in groups – Build a Shared Vision: a people share a 12 common mental model of the firm to evaluate Individual Creativity • • Organizations can build an environment supportive of creativity – Many of these issues are the same as for the learning organization – Managers must provide employees with the ability to take risks – If people take risks, they will occasionally fail Thus, to build creativity, periodic failures must be rewarded – This idea is hard to accept for some13 managers Building Group Creativity • • Brainstorming: managers meet face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives • Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives until all alternatives are listed • Be creative and radical in stating alternatives • When all are listed, then the pros and cons of each are discussed and a short list created Production blocking is a potential problem with brainstorming • Members cannot absorb all information being presented during the session and can forget their 14 own alternatives Building Group Creativity • Nominal Group Technique: Provides a more structured way to generate alternatives in writing • Avoids the production blocking problem • Similar to brainstorming except that each member is given time to first write down all alternatives he or she would suggest • Alternatives are then read aloud without discussion until all have been listed • Then discussion occurs and alternatives are ranked 15 Building Group Creativity • Delphi Technique: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face – • Problem is distributed in written form to managers who then generate written alternatives • Responses are received and summarized by top managers • These results are sent back to participants for feedback, and ranking • The process continues until consensus is reached Delphi allows distant managers to participate 16 Summary • Cognitive Biases • Types of Cognitive Biases • Organizational Learning & Creativity • Delphi Technique 17 Next Lecture Organizational Planning Importance of Planning Planning Process 18 ... to accept for some13 managers Building Group Creativity • • Brainstorming: managers meet face-to-face to generate and debate many alternatives • Group members are not allowed to evaluate alternatives... Creativity • Delphi Technique: provides for a written format without having all managers meet face-to-face – • Problem is distributed in written form to managers who then generate written alternatives... the decision maker to discover novel ideas leading to a feasible course of action – A creative management staff and employees 10 are the key to the learning organization Senge’s Learning Organization