The Politics of Large Numbers A H istory of Statistical Reasoninc Alain Desrosieres Translated by Camille Nuish The Politics of Large Numbers A History of Statistical Reasoning Alain Desrosieres TRANSLATED BY CAMILLE NAISH HARVARD U N IV ER SITY PRESS Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England Copyright © 1998 by thc President and Fellows of Harvard Collcgc All rights reserved Printed in the Unitcd States of America Originally published as La politique desgrands nombres: Histoire de la mtson stntistique, © Editions La Decouverte, Paris, 1993 Published with the assistancc of thc French Ministry o f Culturc This book has been digitally reprintcd Thc content remains identical to that of prcvious printings Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publicatiοn Data Dcsrosieres, Alain [Politique des grands nombres English] Thc politics of large numbers : a history of statistical reasoning / Alain Desrosieres : translated by Camille Naish p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 0-674-68932-1 (alk paper) Statistics—Flistory Statistical services—History I Title HA19.D4713 1998 519.5Ό9—dc21 98-3199 Το the memory of Micbael Pollak, whose moral rip/or and work on thepolitics of the social sciences have profoundly influenced this book Contents Acknowledgments ix Introduction: Arguing from Social Facts Prefects and Geometers 16 Judges and Astronomers 45 Averages and the Realism o f Aggregates C orrđation and the Realism o f Causes Statistics and the State: France and Great Britain 67 103 147 Statistics and the State: Germany and the U nited States 178 The Part for the Whole: M onographs or Representative Samplings Classifying and Encoding M odeling and Adjusting 236 279 Conclusion: Disputing the Indisputable Notes 339 References Index 359 343 210 323 Acknowledgments One o f the sources o f this book has been a long-standing interest in the social conditions under which information on the social world is produced, an interest kindled by the teachings o f Pierre Bourdieu It owes much to conversadons through the years with statisticians, demographers, and economists (Joelle Affichard, Michel Armatte, Denis Bayart, Annie Cot, Jean-Jacques Droesbekc, Fransois Eymard-Duvernay, Annie Fouquet, Michel Gollac, Fran£ois Hćran, Jacques Magaud, Maryse Marpsat, Pascal Mazodier, Robert Salais, Philippe Tassi, Michel Volle, Elisabeth Zucker); with historians and philosophers (Marie-Noellc Bourguet, Stephane Callens, Fransois Ewald, Anne Fagot-Largeault, Frar^ois Fourquet, Bernard Lecuyer, Jean-Claude and Michelle Perrot); and also with certain British, German, and American specialists, whose advice has been most valuable (Margo Anderson, Martin Bulmer, Lorraine Daston, Gerd Gigercnzer, Ian Hacking, Donald MacKenzie, Mary Morgan, Ted Porter, Stephen Stiglcr, Simon Szreter) It has also benefited from a seminar on thc history o f probabilities and statistics, organized at the Ecole des Hautes Etudes (EHESS) in Paris by Marc Barbut, Bernard Bru, and Ernest Coumet The sociology-of-science perspective was influenced by work carried out in the Groupe de Sociologie Politique ct Morale (EFiESS) with Luc Boltanski, Nicolas Dodier, Michael Pollak (who died in 1992), and Laurent Thevenot, whose ideas on statistical formatting were essential—as was the research undertaken at the Centre de Sociologie dc l’Innovation de l’Ecolc des Mincs (Michel Callon and Bruno Latour) Finally, this book could not have been written without the warm welcome and assistance provided by the research department at the Institut Nadonal de la Statistique ct des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), thc Frcnch statistical office The pertincnt criticisms expressed by members o f this department—especially by Francis Kramarz—were extremely helpful I am also indebted to Elisabeth Garcia for her painstaking work in preparing the manuscript, with the hclp o f Dominique d’Humiercs 354 References - 1992 Une histoire intellectuelle de l’economie politique Paris: EHESS Perrot, M 1974 (1987) Premieres mesures des faits sociaux: les debuts de la statistique criminelle en France (1780-1830) In INSEE 1977: Pour une histoire de la stntistique, vol 1, Contributions, pp 125-137 Reprinted in 1987; Paris: INSEE Economica Peuchet, J 1805 Statistique eUmentaire de la Fmnce Paris Piquemal, J 1974 Succes et dćcadence de la methode numerique en France, a l’ćpoque de Pierre Louis Medecine de Fmncc, 250 (March): 11-22 Plackett, R L 1972 The Discovery o f the Method o f Least Squares Biometnka, :2 -2 Poisson, S D 1837 Recherches sur la probabilite des jugements m matiere critni- nelle et en matiere civile, precedees des regles generales de cnlcul des probabilites Paris: Bachelier Polanyi, K 1983 La jjrande tmnsformation: aux origincs politiqms et econotniqms de notre temps Paris: Gallimard Pollak, M 1985 Sociologie de la science In Encyclopacdia universalis: les enjeux, pp 625-629 - 1986 Un texte dans son contexte: l’enquete de Max Weber sur les salaries agricoles Actes de la, recherche 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Schumpeter, J 1983 Histoire de Panalyse economique> vol Paris: Gallimard Seng You Poh 1951 Historical Survey o f thc Dcvclopmcnt o f Sampling Theories and Practice Journnl of the Royal Statistical Society, ser A, 114: 4-231 Serverin, E 1985 De la jurisprudence en droitpnve: theone d’unepmtique Lyon: Presses universitaires de Lyon Sewell, W H 1980 (1983) Work and Revolution in Fmnce Cambridge: Cambridge University Press French trans., Gens de metier et revolutions, Paris, Aubier-Montaigne, 1983 SGF 1847 Industrie 1847 Paris SGF 1873 Industrie, enquete de 1861-1865 Paris SGF 1896 Recensement de 1896: Industrte Paris Shafer, G 1990 The unity and diversity o f probability Statistical Science, 5, 4: 435-462 Simiand, F 1908 Lc salaire des ouvriers des mines de charbon Journal de la Societe statistique dc Paris: 13-29 Slutsky, E 1927 The summation o f random causes as the source o f cyclic processes The Problcms ofEconomic Conditions, 3,1: -6 ,1 -1 Moscow Spearman, C 1904 General intelligence objectivđy determined and measured American Journalof Psycholo£fy>15: 201-293 Stephan, C 1948 History o f the uses o f modern sampling procedures Journnl of the American Statistical Association, 43: 12-39 Stigler, S M 1978 Francis Ysidro Edgeworth, statistician Journal ofthe Royal Statistical Society (A), 141: 287-322 - 1986 The History of Statistics: Thc Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900 Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press o f Harvard University Press Stockmann, R., and A Willms-Herget 1985 Erwerbsstatistik in Deutscbland Frankfiirt: Campus Verlag Sutter, J 1950 “L}Eugenique: Problemes, metbode, resultats, ” Paris: Cahiers de l’INED, 11, PUF Szreter, S 1984 The Genesis o f thc Registrar-General’s Social Classification o f Occupations British Journal of Sociology, , (December): 529-546 - 1991 Thc GRO and thc Public Health Movement in Britain, 1837-1914 Social History of Medecine, 4, (December): 435-4 356 References Thćvenot, L 1984 L’enregistrement statistique: une mesure dćcisive Conference o f the Conseil national de la statistique - 1986 Les investissements de forme In Les Conventions economiquesy Cahiers du Centre d’etudes de Vcmploi, 29, pp -7 Paris: PUF - 1990 La politique des statistiqucs Lcs origines sociales des enquetes de mobilite sociale AnnalesESC, 6: 1275-1300 Tinbergcn, J 1937 An Economic Approach to Business Cycle Problems Paris: Hermann - 1939 Statistical Testinjj ofBusiness Cycle Theories, vol 1: A Method and Its Application to Investment Activity; vol 2: Business Cycles in the United States of America>1919-1932 Gencva: Lcague o f Nations Tocqueville, A de 1856 (1967) LAncien Regime et la Revolution Rcprinted in 1967; Paris: Gallimard, Folio Topalov, C 1991 La ville, terre inconnue: l’enquete dc Charles Booth ct lc peuple de Londres, 1889-1891 Geneses, sciences sociales et histoire, 5: 5-34 Venn, J 1866 The Logic ofChcmce London: Macmillan Vignaux, P 1991 Nominalisme Encyclopnedin universalis Villerme, L R 1845 Sur l’institution par le gouvernement belgc d’une commission centrale de statistique, et observations sur les statistiques officielles publiees en France par les divers ministeres Journal des economistes, 15: 148 ViUey, M 1975 La formation de la pensee juridique moderne: cours d’histoire de la philosophie du droit Paris: Montchrestien Vining, R , and T C Koopmans 1949 Methodological issues in quantitative economics Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 31: 77 -9 Volle, M 1982 Histoire de la statistique industrielle Paris: Economica Ward, R., and T Doggett 1991 Keeping Score: The First Fifty Tears of the Centml Statistical Office London: CSO Westergaard, H L 1932 Contributions to the History of Statistics London: King Woolf, S 1981 Contributions a l’histoire des origines de la statistique en France, 1789-1815 In Statistique en France d Fepoque napoleonienne Brussels: Centre Guillaume Jacquemyns X-Crise, 1982 De la recurrence des cycles economiques Paris: Economica Yule, G U 1897 On the theory o f correlation Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 60: 812-854 - 1899 An investigation into the causes o f changes in pauperism in England, chiefly during the last two intercensal dccades, I Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 62: 249-295 - 1909 Les applications de la mćthode dc corrćlation aux statistiques sociales et economiques Bulletin de l’Institut international de statistique, first delivery: 265-277 - 1911 An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics London: Griffin - 1927 On a model o f investigating periodicities in disturbed series, with References 357 special reference to Wolfer’s sunspot numbcrs Philosophical Tmnsactions ofthe Royal Society ofLondon, ser A, 226: 267-298 - 1942 Thc future o f statistics Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 105, pt 2: 83ff Zucker-Rouvillois, E 1986 La politiquc des anges: dcmographie, cugćnismc, ct immigrations Milieux> 23-24: 100-107 Index Abstraction, 69, 323-324 Achcnwall, G., 19 Action, 60, 69,169-170, 247-249 Adanson, Michel, 242 Adjustment, 302-307 Adunation, 32-34, 41 AEA (American Economic Association), 198-199, 203 Aggregates, realism of, -94,101-102 Agreement, formulas of, 66 Aleatory contracts, 48, 51 Algebraists, 35-36 Allais, Maurice, 164 Amador, Risueno d’, 83-84 Ameliorists, 133 American Economic Association (AEA), 198-199, 203 American Statistical Association (ASA), 198-199, 203 Anderson, Margo J., 195, 207 Annales d}hy£(iene publique et de medicine legale, Les, 82, 84, 151, 323 Apportionment, 48 Aptitude, 259, 261; average man and, 113— 115, 118, 145-146; measurement of, 113-121,139 Aristotelian logic, 19-20 Arithmetiđans, 35-36 ASA (American Statistical Association), 198-199, 203 Augustine, Saint, 46-47 Autonomy, 6, 308-312 Average man, 67, 73-79, 226, 308, 341nn3,5; moral statistics and, ,9 91; binomial model and, 75-76, 95, 286; aptitude and, 113-115, 118, 145- 146; national identity and, 186-187; law of large numbers and, 217-219, 328 Averages, 62, 67, 77, 214; proportional, 72-73; action and, 169; moving average, 291 Average type, 97-101, 123-124, 217, 219 Bayes, Thomas, 45-46, 56-60,92 Baycs,s theorem, 7-8, -4 ,285-286 Bell curve (Gaussian curve), ,9 ,1 , 286,328 Bcnnett, Gordon, 191-192 Bernard, Claude, 83-84, 86,164 Bernoulli, Daniel, 54-55 Bernoulli, Jacques, 7, 56, 286 Bernoulli, Nicolas, 53-55 Bertillon, Adolphc, ,9 ,1 ,1 ,1 , 238, 273, 340n2 Bertillon, Alphonsc, 125,154 Bertillon, Jacques, 154, 155, 162, 272-274 Bienayme, I J., 89-91, 101, 116-117 Binomial model, 66-67, 86-87, 94-95; average man and, 75-76, 95, 286 Biometrics, 104, 112, 130, 139, 170-171, 283, 329 See also England Biometrikd, 143 Bismarck, O tto Eduard Lcopold von, 182183, 271 BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), 203 Board of Trade (England), 167, 223 Bodio, Luigi, 229 Bonaparte, Lucien, 34 Bonaparte, Napoleon, 33, 40 Booth, Charles, 113-114, 139, 143, 175176, 213, 222, 223; nomenclature of, 256-259, 263 359 360 Index Bootstrap method, 235 Borel, Emile, 158, 159 Bortkiewicz, L., 230 Boscovich, Roger, 63 Bottin, Sebastien, 34 Bourguet, Marie-Noelle, 41 Bouveresse, Jacques, 341n4 Bowley, Arthur, 166-167,172,175-177, 210, 222, 224, 226, 230, 259, 313-315, 321 Bravais, Auguste, 121 British Association for the Advancement of Sciences, 121 BSO (Business Statistical Officc), 172 Buckle, Hcnry, 186-187 Buffon, Comtc de, 239, 240-243, 264 Bunle, Henry, 161, 283 Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), 203 Bureau of Political Arithmetic, 37 Burcaus o f statistics, 8, 10, 16, 147; credibility of, 39-40; medical statistics and, 85; academia and, 172; coordination and, 202-203; knowledge and, 248-249 See also individual bureaus, countries, cmd statisticians Burns, Arthur, 318 Burt, Cyril, 145 Business Statistical Office (BSO), 172 Cadrcs, 267,270 Calcul des probMlites d la portee de tous, Le (Frechet and Halbwachs), 159 Campion, Henry, 172 Cantonal statistics commissions, 152-153 Carmille, Renć, 158 Carnap, Rudolf, 45 Carrel, Alcxis, 340n2 Causes, 20,132; probabilitics of, 56-60, 64, 89; constant, 77-81, ,9 ,9 -9 , 101, 103, 136, 219; correlation and, 104,107-112 See also Regression Census Bureau, ,1 ,1 ,1 -1 9 , 282; ethnic quotas and, 193-194; recruitment efforts, 203-204; inequality and, 208 Censuses, 24, 27, 73-74, 80,149; in United States, 149-150, 188-194, 204205; population trends and, 151-152; centralized process, 156; in Gcrmany, 182-186; employment and, 266-267 See also Public health; Survcys Ccntral limit theorcm, 64-65 Central Statistical Officc (CSO), 167, 172 Centre Polytcchnicicn d ’Etudes Economiqucs (X-Crisc), 164-165 Ccrtainty, 51-56, 62 Chance, 45; definitions, 57; random shocks and, 290-292 Chaptal, Jcan-Antoine, 34,40-44, 251, 264 Cheysson, Emilc, 122-124,154, 159, 162, 163,214-215 Cholera epidcmic, 84-86 Civil Code, 31, 33,254, 328 Clark, Colin, 313, 316 Classe ouvriere ct les niveaux de vie, La (Halbwachs), 157,217 Classifications See Taxonomy COGSIS (Committcc on Govcrnment Statistics and Information Services), 203204 Colbert, Jean-Baptiste, ,2 ,2 Collective typc, 96-101 Commcrce, Ministry of, 151, 154, 156, 171 Commerce Dcpartment, 197, 315 Committee on Government Statistics and Information Services (COGSIS), 203204 Common reference, 148 Common value, 72-73, 77 Comptegeneral de Vadministmtion de lajustice criminelle, 89, 247 Comte, Auguste, 55 Condorcet, Marquis de, 29, ,4 ,9 ,9 Conring, H , 19-20 Conseil Supćrieur dc la Statistiquc, 154 Consistency ofobjects, 10-12,16-17, 30, 42, 80, 202; comparison and, 37-38; institutions and, 147-148; taxonomy and, 276-278; modcls and, 304-305 Constant causc, 77-81, ,9 ,9 -9 , 1 ,1 ,1 ,2 Constituent Assembly, 32, 37 Constitution (United States), 188,195 Constructivism, 51-57,107 Contingency, 105-112 Contingcncy tablcs, 110-111 Control variables, 230-231, 235, 303 Correlation, ,1 ,1 -1 ,1 ,1 , Index 134, 256; multiple, 33, 283, 287, 300; variables and, 141-143 See also Causes; Regression Coumet, Ernest, 46 Cournot, Antoine-Augustin, ,9 -9 , 101, 163, 303 Cowles, Alfred, 316 Cowlcs Commission, 164, 280, 305, 311312,316,318-319 Criteria, 21 Cross tablcs, 21-22 CSO (Central Statistical Officc), 167, 172 Cuvier, Georges, 240 Darmois, Georges, 159 Danvin, Charles, 107, 112, 115, 128 Daston, Lorraine, 51, 52 Data, 248 Davenant, 23, 24 Day, Edmund, 203 Death rates, 272-276; probability and, 275 Debatability, 324-327 Dcdrick, C., 205 Dcpartmentalization, 32-33 Descriptive statistics, 18-23, 35-39,135, 150-151, 187-188; versus prescription, 6-9, 29-30, 335-337; economic theory and, 280-285, 304, 316-317 Determinism, 286-287 Deviation, 61 ,1 ,1 Dickens, Charles, 174 Dickson, J Hamilton, 121 Disparate dimcnsions, 50 Dispersions, 116-121 Divtne Order, The (Sussmilch), 74,179 Divisia, Frar^ois, 165 Division of Labor in Society, The (Durkhcim), ,9 ,1 Divisor lots, 46-47 Dodier, Nicolas, 342n2 Donnant, D F., 19 Dormoy, E., 94 Dumont, Louis, ,9 ,1 , 212, 233234, 235 Dupont dc Nemours, P., 29 Durkheim, Emile, 2, 5, 81 ,9 -1 , 122124, 214, 217, 342n3; German statistics and, 186-187; taxonomy and, 243-246 Duvillard, E., 34-40,41 361 Eco, Umberto, 69 Ecole Nationalc d ’Administration (ENA), 160,333 Ecole Nationale de la Statistiquc ct PAdministration Economique (ENSAE), 159 Ecole Polytcchniquc, 164-165 Econometrica, 316 Econometrics, 104, 139-142, 289, 341nl; gencalogy of, 279-281 Economctric Society, 316 Economic Association of thc Netherlands, 295 Economic theory, 163-166; political cconomics, 250; descriptive statistics and, 280-285, 304, 316-317; language of, 282-283, 286; supply and demand, 284, 317; randomization and, 290-294; rocking horse model, 293-294, 308; Tinbergen’s modcl, 294-299; adjustment and, 302-307; national incomc and, 312-316 Economy ofthought, 107-108, 111 Edgeworth, Francis, -1 ,1 ,1 138, 141-142,155, 303 Elementary Statistics ofFrance, A n (Peuchet), 35 Elements de statistique (Morcau dc Jonncs), 85 Eleven plus system, 146 Employment: in Unitcd States, 199-205, 330, 331; managcment and, 200-201; definitions, 201-202; sample surveys and, 205-206, 330; categories, 254255, 265-266, 269-270; in England, 261-264; crafts and trades, 264-268; in Francc, 264-268; categories, 265-266; ccnsuscs and, 266-267; in Germany, 271-272; diseases and, 272-273 Seealso Poverty ENA (Ecole Normale d ’Administration), 160 Encoding, 60, 85, 289; action and, 247249; models and, 260, 305 See also Taxonomy; Variables Engel, Ernst, 180-183, 185, 187, 229, 341n5 Enginccring, 164-165, 269-270, 317, 333 England, 5, 157, 315; political arithmctic, 16,18, 22-25; poverty and, 140-142, 255-264; administrations in, 149; public health statistics, 166-172; learned 362 Index England (continued) societies, 173-177; surveys in, 174-175; industry and, 253; cmploymcnt and, 261-264, 270 See also Biometrics; Eugcnics; Gcncral Rcgistcr Officc; Mathematical statistics; Poor Laws ENSAE (Ecole Nationale dc la Statistique ct rAdministration Economique), 159 Environmcntalism, 261-263 Epistemic perspective, -8 ,1 -1 , 78, 327, 336 See also Reasons to believe Epstein, R J., 312 Equity, ,48-19, 53, 58-59, 206-209, 227 Equivalences: dimensions of, 10-12; Gcrman statistics and, 20, 21; dcvclopment of, 31-32; expectations and, 46-51; point o f view and, 50, 288; categories of, 144-145; poverty and, 257, 261; public sphere and, 325 Errors, theory of See Theory o f crrors Errors o f measurement, 306-307 Espine, Marc d’, 273 Essai sur Vindividualisme (Dumont), 233 Essay toward Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances, A n (Bayes), 57 Estimation, 16, 288, 320 Etudes sur laformation et le mouvement des prix (Lcnoir), 283-284 Eugenics, 104, 112, ,1 -1 ,1 162, 243, 259-263, 329; aptitudc and, 113-115 See also Biometrics; Heredity; Medical statistics; Public health Evolution, 112,130 “Exercises in the Calculation o f Errors” (Edgeworth), 129-130 Exhaustiveness, 221, 226 Expectations (utilities), 46-56, 65 Expert, rolc of, 24, 39,196 Exposition de la theorie des chances et des probabilites (Cournot), 91 Extensive method, 218-219 Externalism, 4-6 ,1 -1 , 319, 339n3 Fagot-Largeault, Anne, 60, 276, 278 Fairness, 46-48 Farr, William, 167-169,273, 340n3 Fenclon, F., 27 Ferrierc, A dc, 34, 36, 37 Fisher, Irving, 316 Fisher, Ronald, 12, 96, 126-127, 131, 164, 286-288, 290, 292, 303, 305, 341n2 Fontaine, Arthur, 155-157 Formalism, 61-62, 73, 260, 290-291 Foucault, Michcl, 239 France, 5; French Rcvolution, 9, 78, 268270; branches o f knowlcdgc in, 18; ancicn regimc, 25-30; administrative tradition, 26-28, ,1 ,1 -1 ,1 , 331-333; secrecy o f statistics in, 28-29; World War I and, 155, 156, 157-160; cmployment in, 264-268; labor legislation, 266; clcctoral colleges, 267-268; cconomic thcory, 315 Francis dc Sales, Saint, 47 Francis o f Assisi, Saint, 70-71 Frechet, Mauricc, 159,217 Frcc will, -81,108-109 Frcnch Acadcmy o f Sciences, 162 French Revolution, 9, 78,268-270 Frequency, obscrvcd, 53 Frequentist perspcctive, -8 ,1 ,1 ,4 , 55-56, 78, 285-289, 327-328 Frisch, Ragnar, 139,290, 292-294, 3073 ,3 1 ,3 , 342n6 ^factor, 145-146 Gallup polls, 204, 205-206 Galton, Francis, 110,136, 143; cugcnics and, 1 2-1 ,1 23,128-129,170-171, 243,259-260, 328-329; aptitude and, 113-121,126,139 Gambling, 47—48 Gauss, Carl Friedrich, 62, 64-65, 75 Gaussian curvc (bell curve), 10, 75,9 , 115, 286, 328 Gauss-Laplace synthesis, 64-66,285 Generalization, 211-212, 216-217, 220221, 234-235, 323 General Register Officc (GRO), 151,153, ,1 7-172,202-203,261-263, 340n3 General Theory (Keynes), 313, 314 Genetic worth, 113-115 Gćrando, J M de, 37 Gcrman statistics, 19-23, 237,282-285, 326; holistic view and, 19, 21, 24, 74; historical school, 22, 182, 185-188 Gcrmany: branches o f knowledgc in, 1718; Ldnder, -2 ,1 ,1 ,1 ; bu- Index reaus of statistics, 149, 179-181; Prussia, 149, 179, 185; unification of, 178-179, 184; censuses in, 182-186; federalism, 184-185; national identity, 185-188; employmcnt and, 271-272 Giflfen, Robert, 141-142 Gigerenzer, G., 279 Gillc, Bcrtrand, 152 Gini, Corrado, 231, 234 Gossct, W S., 286, 287-288 Grammar ofScience, The (Pearson), 104— ,1 ,1 ,1 ,1 , 299, 304 Graunt, John, 23, 24 Grids, 21,41-43 GRO See General Register Officc Grohmann, 186 Ground, 230 Gruson, Claude, 165-166, 324 Guillard, Achille, 273 Haavclmo, T., 305, 307, 309-311, 316, 318, 342n6 Haberler, G., 298 Habitus, 53, 109 Hacking, Ian, 45, 290 Halbwachs, H., 157-159,188, 213-215, 217-221 Harding, Warren, 193, 200 Hard (Dickens), 174 Hartlcy, David, 53 Helper, H., 191 Hcnnock, E P , 222 Hereditary Genius (Galton), 128 Heredity, 97,10 ,1 -1 ,1 -1 , 170-171, 259, 262 See also Biometrics; Eugcnics Herschel, William, 287 Historical school, 22,1 ,1 -1 8 History, 2-6; taxonomy and, 242-243, 276-278; of social dassification, 255, 260; of abstraction, 323-324 History of England (Buckle), 186-187 Hoffmann, 180 Holism, 86, 212, 228, 234; Gcrman statistics and, 19, 21, 24, 74; grids and, 43; will and, 77, 101; sociological, 260, 319 Holland, 24-25, 294-298 Hollcrith, Herman, 161, 197 Hollerith machines, 197, 253-254 363 Homogeneity, 42-^43, 176-177 Hookcr, William Jackson, 283 Hoovcr, Hcrbert, 194, 199-202, 208-209 Hot-deck proccdures, 47 Housc of Representatives (U.S.), 189, 191 Hubcr, Michel, 158, 274-275 Hume, David, 53, 59 Huygens, Christiaan, 16, 74 Hypothcsis tests, 288, 341n2 ICD (International Classification o f Diseases), ,2 ,2 ILO (International Labor Office), 155, 156 Immigration, 189,192-194 Individual bulletins, 181-182,196 Individualism, 43, 69-71, 79, 86, 212, 260, 319 Induction, logic of, 299-302, 304 Industrialization, 182, 249-254 Inference rcvolution, 104 Information, 248 INSEE, 13,157, 158, 159, 166, 318 Institute o f Statistics o f thc University of Paris(ISUP), 159 Intelligence, general, 115,145-146, 238, 259 Intendants, 26-27 Intcrior, Ministry o f (France), ,1 ,1 Interior, Ministry o f (Germany), 180 Internalism, 4-6, 126-127, 319, 339n3 International Classification o f Diseascs (ICD), 60, 273, 275 Intemational Commission, 274 Intemational Congress o f Statistics, 272, 273 International Labor Officc (ILO), 155,156 Intemational Statistical Institute (ISI), 80, 154-155, 212-213, 222, 225,273, 283, 321 Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, A n (Yule), 133 Inverse probability, 56-60, 64 Invcstment, ,1 ,1 1 ISI See Intcrnational Statistical Institutc Isoles, 266-267 “Is the Theory of Chance thc Result of Chance?” 46 ISUP (Institute of Statistics of the University of Paris), 159 364 Index Jefferson, Thomas, 190 Jensen, A., 225, 231-232, 234 Jevons, William Stanlcy, 294 Journnl de la Societe de Statistique de Parts, 154,161,283 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 143, 300 Judgment: decisions and, ,4 -4 , 247; cquivalent expectations and, 65; juries and, 88-89 Juglar, C., 304 Junkers, 185-186 Juries, 88-89 Kategoria, 238 Kendall, M., 320 Keverberg, Baron de, -8 ,9 , 210, 285 Keynes, John Maynard, 299-302, 303, 304, 313, 314, 316 Keynesian macroeconomics, 299-302, 314315, 331-332, 334, 342nn3,5 Kiaer, A N., 210, 225-232, 234 King, Grcgory, 313 Klcin, Christian Felix, 312 Knowledge, 91-92; branches of, 17-18; certainty and, 51-56, 64-65; selection and, 107; observation and, 107-108; action and, 247-249 Kolmgorov, A N., 164, 286 Koopmans, Tjalling Charles, 280, 287, 312,318-320,322 Kuisel, R., 160 Kuznets, Simon, 313, 314 Labor Council, 157-158 Labor Office (France), 156,157,171, 253 Labor Office (Unitcd States), 196-197 Labour Department (England), 171-172 Labrousse, E., 40 Languagc, 6-7,127; occupational terminology and, 269, 270-271; economic theory and, 282-283, 286; probabilistic, 284-294, 305; randomization and, 289294; national accounts and, 331-335; public sphere and, 331-337; realist versus rclativist, 336-337 Laplace, Picrre-Simon de, 25, 29, 56, 58, 91-92, 305; least squares and, 62, 6466; sampling and, 210 Largc numbcrs, law of See Law o f large numbers Lavoisicr, Antoine-Laurent, 37 Law, Law o f largc numbers, 7, 68, 71-72, 87, 89-90, 213-214, 218-219, 224, 286289, 303, 328; binomial law and, 94-95; average man and, 217-219, 328 Lazarsfeld, P., 20 Lcaguc o f Nations, 298 Least squares, 61, -6 ,1 ,2 , 296, 317 Legendre, A M., 61-62, 64, 66 Legoyt, Alfred, 151-154 Leibniz, Gottfried Wilhelm, 50-51, 53, 233-234, 235 Lcnoir, Marcel, 161,2 ,2 -2 ,2 , 304,318 Lc Play, Frćderic, 122,163, 213 ,2 ,2 , 253, 265 Levasseur, Emile, 154,162 Lexis, W., ,9 -9 ,1 ,1 , 303 Likelihood, 305-306 Linnć, Carl von, 239, 240-243, 264 Locke, John, 53 Logic, o f induction, 299-302, 304 London School o f Economics (LSE), 166, 172 Lottin, J., 80-81 Louis, P , 82-84, 276 LSE (London School o f Economics), 166, 172 Mach, Ernst, 104,106-107, 112, 304 MacKenzie, D., 143, 340n2 Malinvaud, Edmund, 164, 318 Management: description and, 8-9; unemploymcnt and, 200-201 March, Lucien, 105-106, 121,132, 151, 155-159, 234-235, 283, 321; publications, 161-162 Mathematiccil Physics (Edgeworth), 129 Mathematical statistics, ,1 -1 ,1 , 155, 161-162, 280-285, 288, 329; inferential, 104, 164, 302 Mauss, M., 243-244, 342n3 Maycr, Tobias, 63 Mcan values, 76, 136 Measurement, 30, 44, 123-124, 332-333; definitions, 65-66; o f moral behavior, Index 76-77, 99-100; ofaptitude, 113-121; errors of, 306-307 “Measurement without Theory” (Koopmans), 318 Measuring Business Cycles (Mitchell and Burns), 318 Median, 113 Medical statistics: numerical method and, 82-84; encoding and, 247-248; taxonomy and, 272-276 See also Biomctrics; Eugenics; Public health Mcdicval philosophy, 68-71,187-188 Memoir on the Work of the Bureau ofStatistics (Duvillard), 37 Men’s and Women’s Club, 131,135 Mere, chevalier dc, 48-49 Merton, Thomas, Methodological dcbatc, 186, 188 Mill, John Stuart: Representative Government, 170 Millerand, Alexandre, 157, 158 Mills, Frcderick, 203 Mitchell, Wesley, 198, 282, 304, 313, 318 Models, 30, 75-78, 90; econometric, 104, 129-142; cncoding and, 260, 305; mathematical notation and, 288; rocking horse, 293-294, 308; Tinbergen’s, 294299; adjustment and, 302-307; consistency of, 304-305; variability and, 306307 See also individual models Moduli, 129 Moivre, Abraham dc, 56, 66, 75, 286 Monnet, Jean, 158 Monograph method, 214-216, 229, 253 Montbret, Coquebert de, 37, 40 Montyon, J B., 27 Moore, Henry, 280, 283, 284,292 Moral bchavior, measurement of, 76-77, 99-100 Moral statistics, 54-55, 84 -8 ,9 , 151, 215-216, 237-238; average man and, 10,90-91 Moreau dc Jonnes, A., 84-86, 88, 151, 239 Morgan, M S., 279 Mortality ratcs, 23,27 , 36-37,168-169 Multicollinearity, 308, 342n6 Name of the Rose, The (Eco), 69 National accounts, 172,185-188, 220, 312-316,332-334 365 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), 282, 311, 313-315, 318-319 National market, 232-235 Natural Inheritance (Galton), 124, 135 NBER (National Bureau o f Economic Research), 282, 311, 313-315, 318-319 Neufchateau, Fran9 ois de, 33-34 Neyman, Jcrzy, 126, 204, 210-211, 225226, 234, 286, 290, 305, 320, 341n2 Night train analysis, 38, 297 Nisbct, R A., 79 Nomcnclaturc, 19-20 Nominalism, 68-71, 80, ,9 -9 ,9 , 110, 111-112 Normal distribution, 114-115,125-126, 136 Normal law, 64, 65, 87, 89, 94-95, 114121, 129, 136, 143-144, 214; skcw curves and, 136-138 Norms, “Number o f Budgets, Thc” (Halbwachs), 217 Numerical method, 82-84, 96, 247 Objectification, 9-12, 20, 57 Objectivity: conventions and, -3,12; scientific languagc and, 6-7; versus subjectivity, 53, 7 -8 ,9 -9 , 285-289; rcalism and, 91-96 Objects: social facts as, 1-2; construction of, 8-9, 61; public sphere and, 324-327 See also Consistency o f objccts Occam, William of, 68, 69, 70, 86,101, 108 Office du Travail See Labor Officc (France) Office of Population, Censuses and Surveys (OPCS), 167,172 Origin ofSpecies (Darwin), 128 Oxford Economic Papers, 14 Painleve, Paul, 158 Parent-Duchatelet, A., 82 Parochial records, 23-25 Partial statistics See Sampling Particle thcory, 286-287 Pascal, Blaisc, 16, 48-49 Patinkin, D., 300-301 Paupcrism, 140-142 Seealso Poverty Pcarson, Egon, ,1 ,1 , 204, 280, 290, 305 366 Index Pearson, Karl, 6, 12, 43, 62, 66, 75, 86, 96, 126, 146, 188, 341n2, 342n4; Gmmm&r ofScience, 104-108, 112, 131, 132, 135, 299, 304; eugenics and, 128, 161; rcalism and, 135-139; regression and, 287, 303; induction and, 300 Perrot, Jean-Claude, 72, 323 Petty, William, 23, 24, 313 Peuchct, J., 34-40 Physiocrats, 20, 30 Plan, the, 157,158, 165, 333-334 Poisson, Simeon-Denis, 88-91, 116, 117 Political and Economical Alm&nacb of the Department of Bas-Rhin (Bottin), 34 Political arithmetic, 16,18, 22-25, 87-88 Political economics, 250 Poor Laws, 3 -1 ,1 -1 ,1 ,1 168, 171-172,223,256, 261 Population trends, 25, 86-87, 151-152, 250 Pour une histoire de la statistique, 13, 14 Povcrty, 191-192; outdoor versus indoor relicf, 139-141, 256; pauperism, 140142; working-class consciousness and, 157, 219-220, 233; English survcys, 222-225; taxonomy and, 254-259; regularity of, 257-258; statistical argumcnts and, 262-264 Prefectorial statistics, 40-44, 65 Prefecturcs, 32-33 Prescriptive view, 6-9, 335-337 Principle of economy, 111 Probabilistic Revolution, The, 13-14 Probability: dcfinitions, 52-53; objective versus subjective, 53, 77-8 ,9 -9 , 285-289; of causes, 56-60; inverse, 5660, 64; definitions, 57,92; conditional, 58-59; of causes, 64, 89; language of, 284-286, 305 “Probability Approach in Econometrics, The” (Haavclmo), 309 Probability calculus, 91; descriptivc, 7-8, 335-337; origins of, 45-46; equivalent expectations and, 46-51 Probability thcory, 164 Probable error, 18, 25, 285, 321 “Propagation Problems and Impulsion Problems in Dynamic Economics” (Frisch), 293 Proportional averages, 72-73 Prussia, 149, 179, 185 See also Germany Psychometrics, 145-146 Public health, 166-172; taxonomy and, 272-276 Public sphere, 324-327; language and, 331-337 Purposive selection, 211, 217, 225, 226, 230-231,292 Pyrrhonism, 51 Qualification, 246 Quartiles, 113 Quelquesformes primitives de classification, De (Durkheim and Mauss), 243-244 Quesnay, Fran ois, 29, 30 Quetelet, Adolphe, 10, 13,43, 65, 66, 68, 273; constant cause and, 77-81, 87,9 , 95; population estimates of, 86-87; administrative politics and, 88,9 , 237; normal distribution and, 114-115,125126,136; probable crror and, 285 See also Average man; Law o f largc numbers Quetelet: Statistician and Sociologist (\jottin), 80 Quincunx, 116 ,1 -1 ,1 ,1 Randomization, probabilistic languagc and, 289-294 Random sampling, 211,214, 225-226, 229-230, 330 Random shocks, 290-292; Tinbergcn’s model and, 294-299 Realism, -7 ,8 , ,9 -9 ,1 1 -1 , 135-139,144-145; taxonomy and, 246, 302; methodological, 301; errors o f measurement and, 306-307; language of, 336-337 Realism o f aggregates, 93-94,101-102 Reasons to believe, 17, ,4 , 51-52, 57, 90, 285-289, 327 See also Epistemic perspective Reference, systems of See Adunation Regression, 104, 128, 256, 287, 303; linear, 116-121, 279, 290; multiple, 134, 140, 283, 290 See also Causes; Correlation Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature (Galton), 121 Relativism, 10-11,107, 337 Representative Government (Mill), 170 Index Rcprcscntative method, 221-222, 224, 225, 227-229, 285; monograph method an d ,214-216, 229 Representativeness, 206, 211-212, 221, 226, 233 Research: internaHst versus cxtcrnalist, -6, 126-127; types of, 12-15 Review ofEconomics and Statistics, 318 Revolutionary calendar, 31-32 Richelieu, Duc dc, 26 Risk factors, 272-273 Rocking horse modcl, 293-294, 308 Roosevclt, Franklin D., 194, 202, 205206, 330 Rossiter, W., 194 Rousseau, Jean-Jacques, 81, 101 Routines o f perception, 106 Rowntree, Seebown, 175, 213, 222, 223, 224,259 Roy, Rene, 164 Royal Socicty of Medicinc, 28 Royal Statistical Society, 133,141, 173, 176-177, 230 Rucff, Jacques, 165 Rules of Sociolo£fical Method, The (Durkhcim), 96-98 Saenger, K , 183,184 St Petersburg paradox, 54-55 Sample surveys, 204-206, 210-211, 229230,330 Sampling, 10, 25, 285; random sampling, 211,214,225-226, 229-230, 330 See also Stratification Samuclson, P., 294 Sauvy, Alfred, 159,160,166 Schlozer, August Ludwig von, 19-20 Sciencc, 3-7; administration and, 12-13; knowledgc and, 107 Self-assistance, 182 Scrvices dcs Etudes Economiques ct Financiercs (SEEF), 165-166 SGF See Statistiquc Generale de la Francc Sićycs, E J., 32 Simiand, F., 40, 157,158, 159 Simpson, Thomas, 64 Simulation, 292 Skcpticism, constructive, 51-56 Skewcurvcs, 135-138 Slavcry, 189-192 367 Slutsky, E., 290, 291-293 Social Contractj The (Rousseau), 101 Socialism, 131 Social mobility tablcs, 122 Societe dc Statistique de Paris (SSP), 122, ,1 ,1 ,1 , 162 Society, vcrsus individuals, 68, 79 Sociology, ,9 -1 ,1 , 238; taxonomy and, 243-246 Spearman, Charles Edward, 139,145-146, 259 SSP See Societe dc Statistique dc Paris Staatsrat, 180 Standardization, 31-32, 339nl Standards, State: construction of, through statistics, 9; industrial survcys and, 251-252 See also Burcaus o f statistics; individual countries Statistical scale, 124 Statistical socicties, 173-177 Statistical Socicty o f London, 173-176 Statistics, 16,1 ,1 -1 ; history of, 2-3; etymology of, 8; administrative versus scientific, 12-13; verification of, 152153; teaching of, 158-159; definitions, 173,179, 283, 326 Seealso individual type$ and scbools Statistique Generale dc la France (SGF), ,1 -1 ,1 ,1 ,1 Stigler, Stephcn, 128,13 ,2 , 339nl Stone, Richard, 172, 315 Stratification, 211,226, 231,234 Strong program, 5, 53, 89-90 Structural relations, 308-312 Suicide (Durkheim), ,9 -9 ,2 , 217, 342n3 Sum o f absolutc values, 63-64 Survey effects, 218-219 Survey o f 1800,40—44 Survey o f Current Business, 200 Survcys: political arithmetic and, 24; prefects and, 25, 31-35; in England, 174175; samplc surveys, 204-206, 210-211, 229-230, 330; poverty and, 222-225, 256-257; ofindustry, 251-252 See also Censuses Sussmilch, J P., 74,179 Sweden, 24 Systcmatic bias, 218 368 Index Tables, 35-40, 239, 326-327; cross tablcs, 21-22; French monarchy and, 27; mortality tables, 36-37; contingency tablcs, 110-111; social mobility tables, 122; Gcrman, 180 Taxonomy, 93-94, 236; disciplincs, 237238; visual elemcnt of, 239-240; variablcs and, 240; characteristics, 240-241; systcm versus mcthod, 240-242; historical contingcncy and, 242-243, 276-278; logical catcgorics and, 243-246; sociology and, 243-246; symbolic, 244-245; administrativc action and, 245-246; domains of, 247-248; medicine and, 247248, 272-276; discontinuity and, 249, 251-252, 260; industrial activity and, 249-254; povcrty and, 254-259 Terminology, Terray, Joseph-Marie, 27 Territory, 32-33, 217, 228, 231, 232 Theorie de Vhommc moyen, La (Halbwachs), 217 Theory of crrors, 16-17, 67,116, 214 See also Probability Thevenot, Laurcnt, 15 Thirty Years’ War, 20 Thomas, Albcrt, 157-158,160,198 Three-fifths rule, 190 Three Plansfor the Nomenclature of Illnesses, 272 Thurstone, Louis Lcon, 145, 146 Time series, 313 Tinbergen, Jan, 165, 287, 292, 294-302, 308-309,316 Tocqueville, Alexis de, 26 Tolosan, J F de, 251, 253, 264 Tonnies, Ferdinand Julius, 43 Treatise on Probability (Keynes), 299-302 Treatise on Statistics (Schlozer), 19 Trial juries, 88-89 Typological method, 228-229 Ullmo, Jcan, 165 Unitcd Statcs: administrations in, 149-150; ccnsus taking in, 149-150,188-194, 204-205; immigration in, 189, 207; slavery in, 189-192; immigration in, 192194; unemployment and, 199-205, 330, 331; election forecasts in, 204, 205-206, 232-233; economic theory, 315 Universal order, 74-76, 78 Univcrsity o f Gottingen, 19 Usury, 47—48 Utilities (expectations), 46-56, 65 Variablcs, 142-143; control variables, 230231, 235, 303; types of, 239-240; lagged, 296-297, 300-301, 308; modcls and, 306-307 Variation, 134 Vauban, Sebastien Le Prestre de, 27, 68, 72, 73, 76 Vcrein fur Sozialpolitik, 149,181,185, 187-188,282 Vicq d ’ Azyr, F., 28 Vignaux, Paul, 69 Villcrme, L R., 82, 85, 153 Vining, Rndedge, 280, 312, 318-320, 322 Vital statistics, 168 Vulgar statistics, 21-22 Walkcr, Francis, 196 Weber, Max, 185-186, 188,224 Weldon, Raphacl, ,1 ,1 ,1 -1 Welfare state, 232-235, 331-332 Wicksell, Knut, 293 Will, free, -8 ,1 ,1 -1 Wilson, Woodrow, 193,198 Words and Things (Foucault), 239 World Hcalth Organization (WHO), 273 World War 1, 155-160,198-199 Wundt, Wilhelm, 217 X-Crise, 164-165 Yule, Gcorge Udny, 133-135,139-145, 176-177,192, 256, 287, 290-292, 303, 320-321 Zollverein, 181 ... The Politics of Large Numbers A History of Statistical Reasoning Alain Desrosieres TRANSLATED BY CAMILLE NAISH HARVARD U N IV ER SITY PRESS Cambridge, Massachusetts, and London, England Copyright... case of statistical techniques, the retranslation of the interpretation of averages and the method of least squares, ranging from the theory of errors in astronomy, to Quetelet’s average man (Chapter... state and of decision making, on the one hand, with those of knovvledge and explanation, on the other, the wager of a program that transcends the separation between “internal” and “external” history