Determinants of enrollment for secondary education in daklak province

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HOCHIMINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM NETHERLANDS VIETNAM- THE NETHERLANDS PROJECT FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DETERMINANTS OF ENROLLMENT FOR SECONDARY EDUCATION IN DAKLAK PROVINCE A thesis submitted in partial fullfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS SUPERVISOR : MA NGUYEN HUU LOC STUDENT :PRAM TAN VIET [!() GiAO O!JC vAr/,o Ti\0 TRLJ'C)NG DH KINH TE TP.HCM T'HUVB~N HO CHI MINH CITY, SEPTEMBER 2003 CERTIFICATION "I certify that the substance of this dissertation has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degrees I also certify that to the best of my knowledge, any help received in preparing this dissertation and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation" Pham Tan Viet Ho Chi Minh City, September 2003 i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT In order to obtain knowledge to complete this thesis, I am very grateful to Dutch government for her financial support and scholarship during the two - year course I am greatly indebted to all project teachers and staff for their kindness Particularly, my thankfulness is given to Mr Tran Vo Hung Son -the Project Director; Ms Tran Thi Ben - Project Deputy Director; Ms Nguyet - the Project Secretary and Ms Chi _, the Project Librarian High appreciation is given to Dr Karel Jansen and Dr Joudi Schipper for their valuable comment of the thesis I also thank all my classmates, especially Mr Van and Ms Thuy who commented and contributed a lot of worthy ideas for my thesis research design I would like to express my appreciation to M.A Nguyen Huu Loc, who gave wholehearted help and gave me lots of useful advise in order to improve this paper It will be extremely difficult for me to accomplish this thesis without his help His advise and dedication play a key role for successfulness of this thesis My heartfelt gratitude is sent to Mr Pham Van Chi - Eah'Leo Head of Education Department; Mr Nguyen Van Tuyen - Chairman of Eah'Leo District People's Committee who helped me during the survey ii ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of household' s and child' s characteristics on the decision to send children to go to secondary school in Eah'Leo district, DakLak province The results of this paper show that differences in household' s characteristic affect children' s enrollment The higher the per capita household income, the more chance for children to go to school Children' s characteristic consideration as child' s ability is discovered to make sense remarkably concerning school decision More intelligent children are often received more education by their parents iii ABBREVIATIONS DSO Dak Lak Statistical Office MOET Ministry of Education and Training VLSS Vietnam Living Standards Survey VNSSFS Vietnam Social Sector Financing Survey EPH Encuesta Permanent de Hogares WB The World Bank UNDP The United Nation Development Program GSO General Statistic Official iv CONTENT Certification Acknowledgement , ii Abstract iii Abbreviation iv Content v List of.tables ix List offigures xi CHAPTER :INTRODUCTION ! I PROBLEM STATEMENT II OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF THE THESIS III METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION , IV LIMITATIONS OF THE THESIS V STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS CHAPTER 2:THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK I DEFINITIONS II LITERATURE REVIEW The human capital theory Theoretical models of Intra-Household allocation 12 2.1 Unitary m.odels 13 v 2.1.1 The wealth model 14 2.1.2 The separable earnings- transfers model 16 2.2 Bargaining models 18 Models on intergenerational and intragenerational mobility 19 Other determinants of children's educational attainment 21 III THE EMPIRICAL STUDIES 22 IV CHAPTER REMARK 25 CHAPTER3:0VERVIEW OF SECONDARY EDUCATION IN VIETNAM 27 l RECENT TRENDS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION IN VIETNAM 27 II DROP OUT RATE IN SECONDARY EDUCATION IN VIETNAM 29 Ill DESCRIPTIVE STATISTIC ON ENROLLMENT AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME 32 IV CONCLUSION 33 CHAPTER 4:DETERMINANTS OF ENROLLMENT FOR SECONDARY EDUCATION IN.DAKLAK PROVINCE 34 OVERVIEW OF EDUCATION IN EAH'LEO DISTRICT, DAKLAK PROVINCE 34 I Introduction 34 Situation of school enrollment in Eah' Leo district in 2001-02 35 School Performance 35 DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES : 36 II III MODEL SPECIFICATION 41 IV DATA COLLECTION AND PROCESSING 44 Data, data source 44 vi Sample size 44 Sampling technique 46 Limitation of data collection 47 V DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS 47 The relationship between enrollment rate and per capita household income 48 The relationship between enrollment rate and parents' years of schooling 49 The relationship between enrollment rate and number of sibling 49 The relationship between enrollment rate and child's gender , 50 The relationship between enrollment rate and child's age : 51 The relationship between enrollment rate and child's ability 51 VI ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS 52 The regression result 52 The regression diagnostic testing 53 2.1 Testing the estimated z value and sign of estimated coefficients 53 2.2 Functional form test 53 2.3 Testing for multicollinearity 55 2.4 Goodness- of- fit test 56 2.5 Distribution of logit model ~ 57 VII COMMENTS ON THE ECONOMETRIC RESULTS 58 Per capita household income level 58 Number of siblings 59 Child's age 60 Child's ability 60 vii VIII CHAPTER REMARK 61 CHAPTER 5:CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 62 APPENDIX REFERENCES viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Summary of the empirical studies 22 Table 3.1: Secondary School Enrollment in Vietnam in Selected Years, 1995-02 27 Table 3.2: Index of pupils at secondary school level (Previous year= 100) 28 Table 3.3: Secondary education drop out rates, 1989-97 29 Table 3.4: Reasons for drop out at secondary school 30 Table 3.5: Household Expenditure on Secondary Education per Pupils in 1997-98 31 Table 3.6: Average Household Expenditure on Education by Region and Level of Education 32 Table 7: Net Enrollment Ratios by Income Quintiles 33 Table 4.1: School Enrollment in Eah'Leo district in 200 1-02 35 Table 4.2: First Semester Performance School Year 2002-03 in Eah'Leo District 36 Table 4.3: Transforming concepts into empirically measurable variables 36 Table 4.4: Distribution of enrollment rate .47 Table 4.5: Prevalence of low enrollment rate indicator by per capita household income 48 Table 4.6: Prevalence of low enrollment rate indicator by parents' years of schooling ; 49 Table 7: Prevalence of low enrollment rate indiCator by number of sibling 50 Table 4.8: Prevalence of low enrollment rate indicator by child's gender 50 ix PART 2: EMPLOYMENT (Ask only household members aged 10 years or older) Name During the past 12 months has [name] Among the answers to 2, 3, arid is there a 'yes' (code 1)? -g u a worked for pay for a unit or someone not a member of your household? = ':::l C>2B21) Has your household grown the following crops during the past 12 months? Coffee Black pepper Cassava/Manioc Other What was the area planted in [ ] during the past 12 months? (m2) How much [ ]was harvested in the last 12 months? (kg) How much [ ]was sold or bartered in the past 12 months? (kg) What was the money value per kg of[ ] sold or bartered? What was the money value of the total amount of[ ] sold or bartered? (thousand dong) (thousand dong) Total 2B 12 Farm expenditures Has your household bought and/or used any following items to plant during the past 12 months? Hiring labor Seeds Fertilizer Insecticides/ Herbicides Oil Others How much was spent in total (including value of goods bartered in exchange) for[ ] for the following crops? (thousand dong) Black pepper Other Coffee Cassava/ Manioc Total Total I Net income from crops = Gross income- Farm expenditures = ! _, 2B21 Gross earnings from livestock (Ask persons answered in question 1b, section - employment) During the past 12 months, has your household earned from animal products? Yes ! No (>>2B31) During the past 12 months has your household sold[ ]? Pork Beef Poultry meat Eggs Others Unit How much has your household received from the sale of[ •] in the past 12months? (thousand dong) Amount Value What is the value of the[ ] consumed by your household during the past 12 months? (thousand dong) Amount Value Total income from animal products during the past 12 nionths? (thousand dong) Amount Value kg kg kg (piece) Total 68 2822 Expenditures for animal products Has your household paid for the following items in the past 12 months? Stud animal Food Medicine Hiring labor Others Total (thousand dong) How much has your household paid for[ ] in the past 12 months? (thousand dong) Cattle Poultry Others Pig TOTAL 10 Net income from livestock = Gross income - Expenditures =._I _ 2C I Gross income from business activities and service (Ask persons answered in question lc, section 2- employment) During the past 12 months have your household earned from business activities or service? Name of the business ~ During the past 12 months, for how many months has your business been in operation? (month) How much money has ·your business received from sales of goods and services per month? (Thousand dong) How much is your total revenue during the past 12 months? (3*4) (Thousand dong) During the past 12 months, have any ofthebusiness's products, services or raw materials been used or consumed by your household? Yes No What is the value of the products or raw materials used or consumed by your household? I 2(»8) (Thousand dong) Total revenue (5+7) (Thousand dong) Total 2C2 Expen ttures :tlor bus mess ac tvt tes an d.servtce 14 Total expenditures During the past 12 months, how much did you spend for i Renting building, land (Thousand dong) 10 Depreciation of assets (Thousand dong) 11 Hiring labor (Thousand dong) 12 Income tax and other taxes 13 Others (Thousand· dong) (Thousand dong) (Thousand dong) Total 15 Income = Revenues- Expenditures = !. _ 69 2D Other income I During the past 12 months, has anyone in your household received the following incomes?· Put a cross if 'Yes' Gifts or presents in cash and in kind Pension Dividend, interest money Others Total How much has he/she received in the last 12 months? (thousand dong) Thank you very much! 70 APPENDIX 2: REGRESSION logit enro incc sib age ability Iteration 0: log likelihood -206.33769 Iteration 1: log likelihood -71.175101 Iteration 2: log likelihood -49.93956 Iteration 3: log likelihood -43.2.35795 Iteration 4: log likelihood -41.748601 Iteration 5: log likelihood -41.626547 Iteration 6: log likelihood -41.625367 Logit estimates Number of obs LR chi2(4) Log likelihood enro I -41.625367 Coef Std Err z 321 329.42 Prob > chi2 0.0000 Pseudo R2 0.7983 P>lzl [95% Conf Interval] -+ -incc 7523956 2452895 3.07 0.002 271637 1.233154 sib -.8935456 4339243 -:-2.06 0.039 -1.744021 -.0430696 age -1.239416 1826999 -6.78 0.000 -1.597501 -.8813304 ability 2.678527 567363 72 0.000 566516 3.790538 cons 11 52503 2.980279 3.87 0.000 5.683793 17.36627 logistic enro incc sib age ability Logit estimates Number of obs LR chi2(4) Log likelihood = -41.~25367 enro I Odds Ratio Std Err z 321 329.42 Prob > chi2 0.0000 Pseudo R2 0.7983 P>lzl [95% Conf Interval] -+ ~ - incc 2.122078 5205234 3.07 0.002 312111 3.432038 sib 4092023 1775628 -2.06 0.039 174816 9578447 age 2895534 0529014 -6.78 0.000 2024017 4142315 ability 14~56362 8.262861 72 0.000 4.789929 44.28021 71 APPENDIX 3: DIAGNOSTIC TESTING lfit Logistic model for enro, goodness-of-fit test number of observations 321 number of covariate patterns 299 Pearson chi2(294) 251.83 Prob > chi2 0.9642 display invchi2tail(294,0.05) 334.98984 lstat Logistic model for enro True -Classified I D -D Total -+ + - + 102 109 204 212 ~ + + - Total 110 211 321 Classified + if predicted Pr(D) >= True D defined as enro -= Sensitivity Pr( +I D) 92.73% Specificity Pr ( -I-D) 96.68% Positive predictive· value Pr( Dl +) 93.58% Negative predictive value Pr (-DI -) 96.23% False + rate for true -D Pr ( +I-D) 3.32% Pr ( -I D) 7.27% False - rate· for true D False + rate for classified + Pr(-DI +) 6.42% - rate for classified - Pr ( Dl -) 3.77% False Correctly classified 95.33% 72 cor, coef incc p_edu sib age ability cons -+ ~ -~ - incc 0000 p_edu -0.3606 1.0000 sib -0.0240 0.2332 0000 age -'-0.2999 0.0643 0.0513 1.0000 ability 0.4058 -0.1020 -0.1506 -0.1363 0000 cons -0.0502 -0.3475 -0.4959 -0.7016 -0.2606 1.0000 73 APPENDIX 4: CALCULATION OF ESTIMATED PROBABILITY (P2) Notes: Initial probability means that a probability a child aged 11-17 goes to school We suppose initial probabilities of40 per cent and 80 per cent Chon (2000) established the formula for change in probability as follow: Let P1 and 01 denote initial probability arid odds, respectively P2 and 02 denote estimated probability and odds as one unit increases in corresponding explanatory variable The odds ratio is defined as : !2=02/01 or 02=!201 Where: (1) = _P_I- and 1- pI ' (2) It follows that (3) Substituting (1) and (2) into (3), we obtain: (4) Equation (4) is usedto calculate above estimated probability, P2 74 REFERENCES Ashton, D., F Green, D James and J Sung (1999) Education and Training for Development in East Asia London: Doutledge Ayalew, T (2000) 'Parental Preference, Heterogeneity, and Inequality within the Household, http://econ.worldbank.org/filesl18081 wps288l.pdf, accessed on 10 April 2003 Bedi; A S., P K Kimalu, D K Manda and N Nafula (2002) The Decline in Primary School Enrollment in Kenya, Working Paper Series No 335 Becker, G (1964) Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education New York: Columbia University Press Becker, G and N Tomes (1976) 'Child Endowment and the Quantity and Quality of Children', Journal of Political Economy 84(S):143-63 Berhman, J.K (1992) 'lntrahousehold allocation of nutrients and gender effect: A survey of structural and reduced form estimates' in S.R Osmani (ed.) 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