CRASHES, CRISES, AND CALAMITIES Also by LEN FISHER The Perfect Swarm: The Science of Complexity in Everyday Life Rock, Paper, Scissors: Game Theory in Everyday Life Weighing the Soul: Scientific Discovery from the Brilliant to the Bizarre How to Dunk a Doughnut: The Science of Everyday Life CRASHES, CRISES, AND CALAMITIES HOW WE CAN USE SCIENCE TO READ THE EARLY-WARNING SIGNS Len Fisher A Member of the Perseus Books Group New York Copyright © 2011 by Len Fisher Published by Basic Books, A Member of the Perseus Books Group All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews For information, address Basic Books, 387 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10016-8810 Books published by Basic Books are available at special discounts for bulk purchases in the United States by corporations, institutions, and other organizations For more information, please contact the Special Markets Department at the Perseus Books Group, 2300 Chestnut Street, Suite 200, Philadelphia, PA 19103, or call (800) 810-4145, ext 5000, or e-mail special.markets@perseusbooks.com Text set in 10.5 point Weidemann Book Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Fisher, Len Crashes, crises, and calamaties : how we can use science to read the early-warning signs / Len Fisher p cm ISBN: 978-0-465-02102-4 (hardback) Accidents—Prevention Natural disasters—Forecasting Science—History Science—Social aspects Scientists I Title HV675.F49 2011 363.34'63—dc22 2010048289 E-book ISBN: 978-0-465-02335-6 10 To Wendella, who has survived yet another book without crashes, crises, or calamities CONTENTS Acknowledgments A User’s Guide to This Book Introduction: How Do Toads Predict Earthquakes? ix xi xiii PART 1: A POTTED PRE-HISTORY OF PROGNOSTICATION Do Animals Have Crystal Balls? The Future Eclipsed 15 Galileo’s Hell 25 PART 2: HOW DISASTERS HAPPEN The Stress of It All 35 Runaway Disaster 53 The Balance of Nature and the Nature of Balance 71 PART 3: IMMINENT CATASTROPHES: READING THE SIGNS The Chaotic Ecology of Dragons Teetering on the Brink of Catastrophe 109 Models and Supermodels Beware of Mathematicians Weak Signals as Major Early-Warning Signs 123 135 151 Summary: The Future of Forecasting 169 Notes Index 171 219 10 11 vii 95 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS My background and contacts in science have given me privileged access to the specialists who are contributing to the rapid development of forecasting methods Many of them have been kind enough to offer perceptive criticisms, suggestions, corrections, and information in areas where I am not a specialist Other friends and colleagues have read the manuscript from the nonspecialist’s point of view, and their suggestions have contributed considerably to its clarity I must especially thank my wife, Wendella, who has carefully gone through every page on behalf of the eventual reader, and my agent Barbara Levy for her constant support and belief in what I am trying to to help integrate science into our wider culture Without the help of all these people, this book would not have been possible in its present form In alphabetical order, those who have made helpful suggestions or provided valuable information are: Michael Adam, Scott Arthur, Nicola Beech, William Brock, Trish Brown, Steve Carpenter, David Dacam, Underwood Dudley, David Fisher, Wendella Fisher, Eric Foner, Gerd Gigerenzer, Garry Graham, Stephen Guastello, Paul Halpern, Dirk Helbing, Wilhelm Krücken, Alan Lane, Leon Lederman, Matthys Levy, John Lienhard, Rosalinda Madara, Spyros Makridakis, Richard C Malley, Robert May, Heather Mewton, Marion Mittermaier, Jeff Odell, Roger Pearse, Mark Peterson, Andrew Pyle, Guy Raffa, Mike Retzer, Paul Rosch, Harry Rothman, Marten Scheffer, Alistair Sharp, Ian Stewart, Noel Swerdlow, Graham Turner, Phil Vardy, Charlie Warwick, and Beth Wohlgemuth ix Index Fire and Ice (Robert Frost), 123 Flickering as early-warning sign,161–163 in fish populations, 163 in polychaete tube worm populations, 162 in psychological relationships, 163 See also Sign(s), early-warning Flyball governor, centrifugal, 76 See also Negative feedback Forbes, Stephen, 72–75, 86, 87, 96, 97, 103, 116, 161, 163 Forcing, stochastic, 161–162 Forecasting See Prediction Forth Rail Bridge design, 38 (photo), 38 “Foundation” series (Asimov), 142 Four-color theorem, 141–142 Fraud identity, 21 straight-out, 11 Freud, dismissal of precognition in dreams, 11 Frost, Robert, 123 Fueschel, George, 136 See also GIGO Gaia hypothesis, 134 Galatzer-Levy, Robert, 118 See also Love-hate relationship Galileo calculating size of the roof of Hell, 26–29 cannonball experiment, 57 first description of stress, 41 See also Dialogues Concerning Two New Sciences; Stress Dialogues Concerning Two New Sciences (book), 29, 31 lectures to Florentine Academy, 26–27 pioneer of scientific prediction, 24 225 scaling laws, 29–31 (see also Scaling, Science) square-cube law, 29–30 (see also Scaling) Game theory prisoner’s dilemma, 143 use in forecasting of, 131–132, 137 Gardner, Martin, 141 See also Fourcolor theorem GIGO, 136, 139 Glaciers collapse, 50, 65 Himalayan, melting rates, 148 Glass elasticity, 43–44 toughened, 51 Global warming computer models, 123 concern “explained” by Maslow’s hierarchy, 128 critical transition in, 133 definitely happening, 167 greenhouse metaphor, 128–129 increasing variance as earlywarning sign 164 See also Climate change; Transition(s), critical Gold price, as market indicator, 18 See also Indicators: market Gömböc balance of, 79–80 (photo), 80 Gould, Steve, 90 See also Equilibrium: punctuated Griffith, Alan, 48 Groupthink, 147 Guastello, Stephen, 120 See also Binge drinking Haken, Wolfgang,141 See also Fourcolor theorem Helike, 3–4 226 Hell levels, 26, 27 personal Internet test, 26 roof, Dante’s description, 26 roof, Galileo’s calculation of size, 26–29 Hemline index, 155–156 Herodotus, argument for balance of reproduction rates, 73 Hewitt, Judi, 162 See also Flickering Hierarchy of human needs (Maslow’s hierarchy), 127–128 Higgs boson, 12–13, 17 Hsi and Hso, 15–16, 17 Holling, Crawford Stanley (“Buzz”), 158 See also Resilience Homeothermy, 159 Hooke, Robert career, 44 law of elasticity, 44–45, 77–78 law of elasticity applied to buildings in earthquakes, 130 Ice-albedo effect in climate change, 106 See also Climate change Independence of data from model, 139 of decisions, 147 of information sources, 154 of vertical and horizontal movement, 56–57 Indian rope trick modern version, 82–83 (photo), 83 Indicator(s) of changing environment, 132–134 of disaster, 158 (see also Sign(s), early-warning) of future trends, 21 of social mood, 155 gold price as market, 18 Index housing market volatility as market, 20 increasing belief in expert advice as market, 20 Injelititis, 164 Invisible hand and “survival of the fittest”, 73 of competition, 86, 87 of self-interest in democracy, 86–87 Jannasch, Holger, 96 See also Dragons Jaytee (dog), Kekulé, August, dream, 124–125 See also Benzene molecule, shape of Lakes as microcosm of human society, 74, 86 critical transitions in, 24, 89, 116, 118, 122, 164, 167 Illinois, Forbes’s study of, 71–75 “Lake as Microcosm, The” (talk), 74 San Ruffino, Law(s) Hooke’s, of elasticity, 44, 130 Malthus’s, equation of population growth, 97–98 Newton’s, of motion, 54–56, 130, 140 Newton’s, of motion, sociological equivalent, 142–143 of cartoon physics, 55 scientific, 22–24 See also Science truly large numbers, 11 Leonardo (da Vinci), 42 Levin, Simon, 144 See also Ecology: for bankers Limits to Growth, The (book), 140, 142 See also Models; World3 Index Linked rods balance through driven equilibrium, 82–83 photo of, 83 See also Equilibrium: driven Literary Digest (magazine), 20–21 Lorenz, Konrad, 120 See also Catastrophes: cusp; Transitions, critical Love-hate relationship modeled as cusp catastrophe, 118–120 modeled as cusp catastrophe (fig.), 118 Lovelock, James, 134 Lucifer, size of, 27–28 See also Scaling Makridakis, Spyros, 23, 145 Malthus, Thomas description of positive feedback effect on population growth, 98–99 See also Positive feedback law of population growth, 97 similarities of model with World3, 140 Management crisis, 153–154 to sustain resilience, 161 Maslow, Abraham, 127 See also Hierarchy of human needs Materials brittle, 50 concrete, 47, 48 deformation of, 40–41, 77 ductile, 50 elasticity of, 44 natural, 50 “self-healing,” 50 smart, 50 strength of, 30, 47 227 stresses in, 42–48 Young’s modulus of, 45 Maupassant, Guy de, 36 Maxwell, James Clerk, 84 See also Control theory; Feedback May, Robert (Lord May of Oxford), 96, 100–102, 144–145 McCarty, Nolan, 137 See also De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno McGonagall, William Topaz, 35–37, 80 Meacham, Jon, 87 See also Democracy Mellbratt, Anders, 156 See also Hemline index Mendonỗa, Sandro, 156 See also Signs, early-warning Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 160–161 Millikan, Robert, 147 Modeling of building collapse using dried spaghetti, 130 of complex adaptive systems, 143 of fold catastrophe from skiing, 116 of fold catastrophe from skiing (fig.), 117 of multiple stable states using pinball machine analogy, 104 Model(s) as metaphors for reality, 124, 129 “ball-and-stick,” 124, 125 “ball-and-stick” (figs.), 124, 125 dominant, 146 global, 132, 143, 140–141 of continental drift, 126 of DNA structure, 125–126 of DNA structure (fig.), 126 justification for use of, 126 linear, 120 mathematical, 128–134 non-linear, 120–121 228 Model(s) (continued) reliability of, 140–146 social thermodynamics, 143 World3, 140–141 Möhne dam, after bombing (photo), 47 Mullin, Tom, 83 See also Equilibrium, driven Nature (magazine), 91 Natural selection driven by negative feedback, 75 See also Negative feedback process of, the, 73–74 Negative feedback and the balance of society, 87 car steering as, 75 contribution to evolution of patterns in complex systems, 88–89 in maintaining balance, 84 in control loops, 85–86 in ball cocks, 75 in human body, 76 in magnetic compass, 76 interaction with positive feedback, 24, 69, 131 in thermostats, 76 in nature, 75 limiting factor in population growth, 98 use in centrifugal flyball governor Newbold, Dave, 13 Newsweek (magazine), 87 Newton, Sir Isaac laws of motion, 54–56, 76, 130 See also Laws laws of motion applied to buildings in earthquakes, 130 laws of motion applied to cheese rolling, 58–60 laws of motion, reliability of, 140 New York Times (newspaper), 12, 21 Index Nielsen, Holger, 12 Nimrod, size, 27, 28 See also Scaling Ninomiya, Masao, 12 Octopus, Paul the, 5, 160 O’Donnell, Mark, 55 See also Laws: of cartoon physics Oliva, Terence, 120 See also Transition(s), critical Omens, heavenly events as, 18 Omen series (book), 18 On Growth and Form (D’Arcy Thompson), 110 On the Origin of Species (Darwin), 73 Oracle, 6–8 at Delphi, Internet, Ozone depletion, 133, 146 Parallel universes, 14 Parkinson, C Northcote, 164 See also Critical slowing down; Injelititis; Signs, early-warning Parkinson’s Law or the Pursuit of Progress (book), 164 See also Injelititis Patterns apparent, 18–21 of behavior, 100 of pre-crisis behavior, 153 from mixture of negative feedback and runaway processes, 88–89 in evolution of complex systems, 87 in the evolution of societies, 87–88 in vegetation due to desertification, 166 in vegetation due to desertification (fig.) 166 in village living, 166 Index in weather as sign of global warming, 164 limited use for prediction, 23 spatial, changes in, as earlywarning sign, 161, 165–166 Perception, unconscious, 10 Perspiration, 76 See also Negative feedback Pinball machine analogy for critical transitions, 104–105 evolution of base profile in models, 107 used to model Allee effect, 106 See also Allee effect valleys as alternative stable states, 158 valleys as alternative stable states (fig.), 159 valleys as attractors, 112 Populations balance between populations of predator and prey, 74, 96–97 boom and bust in, 24, 101–102 collapse of, 162–163 exponential growth described by Malthus’s law, 97–98 exponential growth of (fig.), 98 global, growth of, 97–100, 140 limited by negative feedback, 98 maximum sustainable, 99–100 oscillations in (figs.), 101, 102, 150 sigmoidal growth of (fig.), 100 Positive feedback cascade changing patterns of vegetation, 145 driving runaway cracks, 48–50, 52 driving critical transitions, 114 driving population growth, 98–99 in evolution of ecosystems, 143 process of, 52, 67–69 229 in proliferation of shoe shops, 67 interaction with negative feedback, 24, 77–78, 88–89, 98–99, 103, 131, 143 Post hoc fallacy, 19–20 See also Fallacies Poverty trap as a pair of fold catastrophes, 112–114 as a pair of fold catastrophes, (fig.), 113 Precognition, 8–11 (see also Telepathy) and pre-images, dismissed by Aristotle, 11 in dreams, dismissed by Freud, 11 sceptical examination, 9, 11, 14 Prediction(s) difficulty of making, 167 of critical transitions, 25 See also Transitions, critical of disasters using catastrophe theory, 111–122, of eclipses, 15–16 of human behavior, 131–132 of the future of the planet, 132 See also Safe operating space for humanity; World3 simulations as aid to, 103, 107 tests of validity, 135–150 through “precognition”, 8–11 use of correlations in, 18–24, 135, 156 use of simple models, 126–127 weather, 131 Pre-images, Pride and Prejudice (book), 163 Prophecy, self-fulfilling, 10–11 Psychohistory, 142–143 Randi, James, 8, 12 Rat, giant jumping, Madagascan, 147 Relativity, theory of, 109–110 230 Reliability of computer predictions, 148–149 of models, 140–146 Reproduction rates balance of, 72–74 Herodotus’s argument for balance of, 73 See also Ecosystem Resilience Alliance, 160–161 change, in approach to fold catastrophe (fig.), 159 computer modelling of, 158 critical slowing down as sign of loss of, 164 key factors in loss of, 145, 157 loss of in Everglades, 160 of coral reefs, 157–158 of our bodies, 158 of our bodies (fig.), 159 of the earth, 132–133 loss of as cause of catastrophe, 156–157 overview 145, 146 use of management in maintaining, 161 Restaurant at the End of the Universe, The (Adams), 67 See also Positive feedback Safe operating space for humanity believability of model, 142 summary of, 132–134 figure of, 133 Sagan, Carl, San Ruffino Lake, Scaling in calculation of dimensions of Hell, 27–28 of roof dimensions, correct, 30 laws, 29–31 square-cube law, 29–30 Index Scenario leading to critical transition, 130–131 key, for global collapse, 141 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 160–161 wild-card, 154 Scheffer, Marten, 89 Schenectady, USS crack, 49, 51 photo of, 49 Science laws of, 22–24 unpredictability of discovery, 23, 24 See also Equations; Laws Scientific American (magazine), 141 Seagrass, self-organized banding, 165 See also Allee effect Seesaw breaking point, 45 breaking point (fig.), 46 stresses in, 42 stresses in (fig.), 43 Segway as inverted pendulum, 85 freak accident on, 85 George W Bush falling off a, 85 (photo), 85 use of feedback control loop, 85– 86 Selection bias, 10 data, dangers, 137–139 data, to improve forecasting accuracy, 137–139 natural, 73–74 Selye, Hans, 152 Sheep-goat scale, Shu Ching (book), 15 Signs, early-warning changes in spatial patterns as, 157, 165–166 Index critical slowing down as, 157, 164–165 “environmental turbulence” as, 156 for earthquakes, hemline index as, 155–156 increasing fluctuations between different states as, 157, 161– 163 increasing skewness, 167 increasing variance (occurrence of extreme states) as, 157, 163–164 for critical transitions, 108 loss of resilience as, 156–160 of crisis, 153 stressful life events as, 152 summary, 169–170 See also Signals, weak Signals, strong, 153, 154 Signals, weak ambiguity of, 167 in business, 153–154 significance unappreciated, 161 Social Readjustment Rating Scale, 152 overview of, 151–153 Skeptic’s Dictionary, The (book), 11 Smerz, Kelly, 120 See also Binge drinking Smith, Adam, 86 See also Invisible hand Snowball effect, 65 See also Chain reaction Soal, Samuel experiments, fabricated results, 10 Scoggins, Elaine, 20 Skewness, increasing, as earlywarning sign, 157, 167 Social readjustment rating scale, 152 Speca, Bob, 61, 63 See also Domino effect 231 Spencer, Herbert, 73 Stability in physical structures in society, 84 Stable states, alternative, 105–106, 111, 112, 114, 158–159, 161–162, 165 Strain confusion with stress, 40–41 definition, 40 experienced by materials, 45, 130 in Young’s equation, 45 Stresses concentration, 48–49, 81 confusion with strain, 40–41 distribution in materials, 46–52, 130 emotional, 152 everyday meaning, 40 generated by earthquakes, 130 high, leading to catastrophic failure, 46–52, 80 in airplane wings, 39 in banking system, 39 in beams, 41, 42, 46 in pipe (fig.), 43 in seesaw, 42, 45 in seesaw (fig.), 43 intuitive understanding, 39–40 modeling using soap bubbles, 48 on Tay Bridge girders, 40 See also Tay Bridge Disaster physical concept, 31, 40 tests, 39 Trier test, 39 treadmill test for heart disease, 39 Square-cube law, 29–30 See also Scaling Stephenson, A., 82 Stock market, 20, 114, 137 Structural Stability and Morphogenesis (Thom), 110 232 Sugihara, George, 144 See also Ecology: for bankers Superconducting Supercollider (SSC), fate of, 13 Survival of the fittest, 73 See also Invisible hand Sutherland, John, 103–104 See also Ecosystems Swallow’s Tail, The (Salvador Dali), 111 See also Catastrophe: swallowtail Sweet Spot, How to Find the (radio program), 82 Taleb, Nassim, 23, 145, 153 Tay Bridge Disaster, 35–37, 64 See also Bridge collapse; McGonagall, William Topaz Tay Bridge Disaster, The (poem), 35–37 Taylor, George, 155 See also Hemline index Telepathy alternative explanations, 10–11 belief in, 8–11 experimental “proof,” 9–10 prize for proving, See also Precognition Tests for cracks, 51 for Higgs boson, 12, 13, 17 for precognition, 6, 8, 11 for reliability of computer modelling, 149 for reliability of data, 136–139 lie detector, 22 of game theory, 132 of hemline index, 156 of scientific predictions, 126–127 See also Science skeptical, overview of, 135–150 stress (financial), 39 Index stress (physical), 39 stress (physiological), 39 stress (psych-social), 39 Thermodynamics, social, 143 See also Models Thermostat, 76 See also Negative feedback Thom, René, 109–111 Thompson, D’Arcy, 110 Thomson, William (Lord Kelvin), 128 Thrush, Simon, 162 See also Flickering Tipping point, 24 Toads and earthquake prediction, predictive ability, 108, 168 Tomlin, Lily, 38 Tortoise, Indian star balance of, 79 (photo), 80 Toynbee, Arnold theory of rhythmic evolution of societies, 87 theory of rhythmic evolution of societies (fig.), 88 Transitions, critical between fear and aggression, 120 between wealth and poverty, 114–115 described by catastrophe theory, 108, 110 description of, 88–89 early-warning signs for, 108, 151–168 in biodiversity, 133 in global warming, 133 in love-hate relationships, 118–120 in markets, 90 in relationships, 163 in shallow lakes, 24, 89, 116, 118, 122, 164, 167 Index pinball machine analogy, 104–107, 112, 158, 159 Trends, danger is using for prediction, 22, 23 Trier stress test, 39 See also Stress; Test Turner, Graham, 141 See also World3 Twain, Mark, comparison of Heaven and Hell, 25 Vaccination, 66 Variance increasing, as early-warning sign of critical transition, 157, 163–164 increasing, as early-warning sign of global warming, 163 increasing, as early-warning sign of relationship breakdown, 163 increasing, as early-warning sign of sudden change in shallow lakes, 163 Verhulst, Pierre Franỗois, equation for population growth, 99, 103, 104 See also Equation: logistic difference Volcano explosion in Iceland, 89, 164 See also Transition(s), critical Vulture, Cape, endangered, 160 Watson, Jim model of DNA, 125–126 model of DNA (fig.), 126 model of DNA (photo), 126 233 Wealth and poverty critical transition between, 114–115 critical transition between (fig.), 115 “forcing” of critical transition between, 114–115 “forcing” of critical transition between (fig.), 115 increasing skewness as sign of critical transition, 167 Weather forecasting, accuracy of computer models in, 131 Wegener, Alfred, 126 Wiberg, Nils, 156 See also Hemline index Wiseman, Richard, 4, World3 model used in The Limits to Growth, 140, 143 predictions verified, 141 X-rays, discovery unpredictable, 23–24 Young, Thomas Course of Lectures on Natural Philosophy, 45 Young’s modulus, 45 Yunus, Muhammad microcredit, 114 See also Wealth and poverty Nobel Prize, 114 Zeeman, Christopher, explanation of catastrophe theory, 111 Zorba effect, 64 See also Domino effect Zorba the Greek (film), 64 ... 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