UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESSFINANCE AND BANKING GRADUATION RESEARCH THESIS MONETARY POLICY IMPLICATIONS ON CBDC ADOPTION INSTRUCTION LECTURER : Master Do Dinh Dinh STUDENT NAME :
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The evolution of global currency systems has significantly impacted the exchange of goods and services, with electronic transactions now allowing for trade without physical currency Historically, trade began with a barter system, which faced limitations due to the necessity of a double coincidence of wants As societies evolved, items with intrinsic value, such as shells and precious metals, became mediums of exchange, leading to the rise of commodity money Gold and silver gained popularity for their scarcity and durability, prompting the introduction of standardized coinage to simplify transactions The advent of paper money addressed the challenges of transporting coins, eventually leading to the development of fiat currency, whose value relies on public trust in the issuing authority.
As societies evolve, the limitations of physical cash, including its high cost and short lifespan, have become apparent, prompting governments to seek solutions The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the demand for touch-free payment methods to reduce disease transmission, leading to a surge in e-commerce and innovative digital payment solutions Contactless card payments have become the norm for in-store shopping, while digital invoices are now essential for both B2B transactions and everyday consumer purchases Additionally, in-app payments and digital wallets on smartphones reflect the technological shift in payment methods Contactless phone payments are transforming shopping habits, with projections indicating an annual growth rate of 23%, potentially surpassing 522 billion transactions globally by 2026.
In response to the challenges posed by traditional cash transactions, it is crucial to explore alternative solutions that enhance transaction efficiency and security Central banks globally are investigating the potential of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) to meet this demand and achieve key policy objectives For CBDCs to be successfully adopted by countries and accepted by users, significant research and pilot programs are being developed, moving beyond initial discussions of their benefits and risks.
Figure 1.1: World map of CBDC status with the data being updated until October 5 2023.
Today's Central Bank Digital Currencies Status
In the past five years, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) has gained significant traction, with 130 countries—representing 98% of global GDP—actively exploring its implementation Over half of these nations are currently in the research and development phase, while 32 have begun testing or have launched their own CBDCs Countries such as Sweden, the UAE, and India recognize the benefits of CBDC for international transactions China leads the way in CBDC adoption, with its digital currency already implemented in 26 regions across 17 provinces Notably, public sector employees in Changshu will soon receive their salaries in CBDC, starting with specific professions like doctors, teachers, and journalists Additionally, many countries see CBDC as a strategic tool to navigate around stringent sanctions.
The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) presents numerous advantages over traditional physical cash, primarily by significantly reducing production and operational costs CBDC enhances financial transactions by eliminating the inefficiencies of cash handling, allowing for instantaneous and secure transactions that facilitate the smooth circulation of goods and services With the increasing demand for touch-free payments and the rise of technology-driven payment systems, CBDC meets the needs for easy accessibility and fast peer-to-peer capabilities, incorporating electronic technology for seamless mobile access Additionally, CBDC promotes greater transparency and traceability in financial transactions, benefiting both governments and consumers.
Despite the numerous advantages of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), not all countries are eager to adopt them Authorities often hesitate due to varying economic structures and payment systems, as highlighted by Kharisma et al (2023).
If potential CBDCs are to achieve the policy goals greater than cash, they would be able to be adopted by countries and accepted by users (BIS, 2021).
In the past five years, global monetary policy has undergone significant changes driven by various factors, particularly geopolitical risks and the Covid-19 pandemic Klement (2021) highlights that geopolitical events influence financial asset valuation variables, such as expected future cash flows and risk premiums, with political shocks necessitating higher risk premiums due to investor uncertainty The Covid-19 pandemic has further compelled adjustments in monetary policy, as it triggered a severe economic recession Philip R Lane, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, emphasized in a speech at the International Macroeconomics Chair Banque de France that the pandemic presented three key challenges for monetary policy: stabilizing financial markets, ensuring credit supply, and mitigating the negative effects on inflation projections.
1 P2P (peer-to-peer) capability refers to the feature that enables widespread use by individuals and facilitates direct interaction between users
In his speech at the International Macroeconomics Chair, Philip R Lane, a member of the ECB Executive Board, discussed the significant impact of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) on monetary policy during the pandemic He highlighted how the PEPP was instrumental in stabilizing financial markets and supporting the economy amid unprecedented challenges Lane emphasized the importance of maintaining accommodative monetary policies to foster recovery and ensure economic resilience in the post-pandemic landscape.
According to an IMF study, treating the observed output contraction as a standard recession results in overly expansionary policies; however, without administrative restrictions, optimal monetary policy should actually be contractionary during a deep recession On the other hand, if adequate containment measures are implemented, central bank interventions should be expansionary to stabilize economic activity (Brzoza-Brzezina et al., 2021) Figure 1.2 illustrates the significant fluctuations in global monetary policy in recent years, highlighting the need for policymakers to find effective channels to quickly and efficiently transmit monetary policies, ensuring flexibility and responsiveness to emerging risks and uncertainties.
Figure 1.2 Index of Global Monetary Policy (Source: Council on Foreign Relations).
Index of Global Easing (-) / Tightening (+)*
The Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Monetary Policy Tracker also compiles data from
A comprehensive analysis of monetary policy across 54 countries reveals significant global trends As illustrated in Figure 1.3, the chart categorizes nations based on their monetary policy approaches, identifying those adopting tight policies versus those implementing loose policies This overview provides insights into the overall global monetary policy stance, reflecting diverse economic strategies worldwide.
Magnitude of Easing (-) / Tightening (+) (ppt)
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The article highlights the current monetary policy trends, where tightening measures are marked in red and loosening measures in blue Countries that have significantly increased or decreased their rates from the latest low or high in their policy rates are represented with darker shades, indicating the extent of these changes.
Recent data from the Council on Foreign Relations indicates a growing synchronization of monetary policy cycles globally Notably, advanced economies are experiencing an accelerated pace of tightening, marked by an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of interest rate hikes.
Monetary policies are being globally adjusted to address various challenges, aiming to ensure financial stability and support market access for emerging market borrowers This evolving landscape is prompting many countries to explore Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a valuable addition to their monetary policy strategies.
The literature on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) has expanded rapidly, highlighting their potential benefits for national monetary policies (Lukonga, 2023) However, research on the factors influencing CBDC adoption is still in its infancy, with limited exploration of how monetary policy impacts public perception of CBDCs Consequently, the implications of monetary policy on the adoption of CBDCs remain largely unexamined and require further analytical assessment.
This study aims to explore the relationship between monetary policy and the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), an area that has been insufficiently examined in existing research The primary goal is to conduct a thorough review of the literature and empirical evidence concerning how current central bank policies influence government decisions regarding CBDC adoption Key monetary policy factors, such as the degree of monetary policy independence, exchange rate policy, and financial system openness, will be assessed to understand their impact on this decision-making process (Ngo et al., 2023).
Literature R€Vẽ@W .- - LH HH TH TH TH TH HH nh Ti kh 14 2.1 What is CBDC and why it is introduced? - - - sgk, 14
Why is CBDC iSSuedd? <6 vn HH nọ HT ng 15 2.2 Factors control the CBDC’s adoption - G1 ST TH nước 18 2.2.1 Political and governmental ÍACOTS - eee c c SS*SSHH Hi, 18 2.2.2 Modern payment methods and Defi adoption - 55 5S cS+ccsseeeees 19 2.2.3 Public sentiment - Gv rh 20 2.2.4 Cost and EffiCienCy .- - ch HH HH HH HH HH nh 21 2.2.5 Other ÍaCOTS - Ăn TH TH HT HT HH TH HH ng 22 2.3 Monetary policy goals of natẽOIS - - - G11 TH ng 23 2.3.1 Monetary policy ỉOaèS: - HH HH HH kh 23 2.3.2 Operating mechanism of monetary poèẽẽC .- - <5 S1 key 25 2.3.2.1 Exchange rate stability LH HH kh 25 2.3.3 Financial market 0pennieSS - G1 vn TH HH ng tre 29 2.2 Hypothesis development of CBDC adoption via monetary policy
The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) seeks to tackle the limitations of physical cash and the issues associated with privately issued cryptocurrencies.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) aim to address existing financial challenges through formal regulation They promote production and enhance the circulation of goods, which are essential objectives By stabilizing this circulation, CBDCs can lower social costs, boost market capitalization, and optimize capital utilization.
2.1.2.1 Improve efficiency in payment systems
With the blockchain technology that underlies it, CBDC can enhance the efficiency of payment systems both domestically and internationally (Ward & Rochemont, 2019).
A report by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS, 2020) highlights that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) can facilitate faster, cheaper, and more secure transactions compared to traditional cash payment methods The introduction of CBDCs is expected to enhance the efficiency of payment systems significantly.
Central banks can effectively monitor the money supply by ensuring transparency in both wholesale and retail payment systems (Indonesia Kementerian Keuangan, 2022) The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) empowers central banks to provide digital payment services, enhancing competition in the payment market This innovation not only facilitates transactions for specific groups but also contributes to the overall competitiveness and stability of the payment system (Kharisma et al.).
In 2023, Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are poised to enhance financial inclusion and drive innovation by offering digital currency access to unbanked and underserved communities Additionally, CBDCs facilitate the development of new business models and services leveraging blockchain technology.
CBDCs can streamline cross-border payments by minimizing intermediaries, costs, and risks Utilizing a blockchain network allows for an immutable transaction record, enhancing transaction efficiency and speed Transaction fees are determined by the volume of transactions rather than their value Additionally, the 24/7 availability helps eliminate time lags in cross-jurisdictional payments, reducing credit and settlement risks for counterparties These advantages significantly lower transaction costs and delays, making them essential for efficient money transfers.
The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) transforms the payment system by utilizing digital technology to increase transaction speed, lower costs, and ensure transparency This innovation enhances efficiency in both domestic and international transactions, facilitating a more seamless flow of goods within the economy.
2.1.2.2 Improve efficiency in Government revenue and expenditure
CBDC can significantly reduce public spending by minimizing the high costs associated with the production and maintenance of paper currency The expenses linked to operating currency printing facilities and storing physical money are substantial, and the deterioration of physical currency over time leads to further losses By digitizing currency, CBDC offers a cost-effective solution that lessens the need for physical currency production and its associated costs Furthermore, CBDC enhances capital allocation efficiency, enabling banks to leverage central bank-issued digital currency for lending purposes.
16 relying solely on reserves This eliminates the need for hoarding physical currency, which can lead to inflationary pressures over time.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) can significantly enhance government tax receipts by addressing the challenges posed by cash transactions, which are often linked to tax evasion and money laundering due to their untraceability The absence of transaction records with cash increases security risks and complicates the tracking of financial exchanges (Ward & Rochemont, 2019) In contrast, digital currency transactions can be recorded on blockchain technology, allowing governments to monitor fund flows effectively This traceability aids in combating illicit activities, including money laundering and tax evasion, making CBDCs a valuable tool for future administrations aiming to curb criminal activities and improve tax revenue collection (BIS, 2021).
2.1.2.3 Improve efficiency of monetary policies
CBDC significantly improves the effectiveness of monetary policies by providing greater transparency in the money supply and its utilization With the ability to track the usage and allocation of digital currency, governments can more accurately assess economic conditions and implement appropriate monetary policies As a result, CBDC enhances the overall efficiency and effectiveness of monetary management.
It facilitates easy access to new markets for nations, as it enables central banks to determine and control the total money supply in circulation accurately.
CBDC offers significant benefits by promoting production, optimizing capital utilization, and improving the effectiveness of monetary policies Additionally, it provides countries with access to new markets, allowing central banks to accurately determine and control the total money supply in circulation.
2.2 Factors control the CBDC’s adoption
For Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) to achieve their policy objectives, they must gain acceptance from both countries and users (BIS, 2021) Various factors have been identified through research that influence the adoption of CBDCs.
Political factors such as voice and accountability, public trust in politicians, and government effectiveness play a crucial role in shaping public sentiment towards Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) adoption (Ngo et al., 2023) A government's ability to effectively plan and implement policies can significantly influence public perception and acceptance of CBDCs, leading to greater public support for these initiatives Successful policy implementation and maintained public trust can facilitate the introduction of CBDCs For instance, China has accelerated its development of an independent international payment system, including the e-CNY, in response to geopolitical tensions with the United States This strategy aims to reduce reliance on the US dollar and enhance China's position in the global financial landscape through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
The research by Bijlsma et al (2021) highlights that trust in the central bank significantly influences public acceptance of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Their findings indicate that the likelihood of adopting CBDC is directly related to individuals' trust in banking systems, particularly in the central bank itself Additionally, individuals with higher levels of generalized trust in others and narrow-scope trust in their primary bank are more likely to open CBDC accounts.
2.2.2 Modern payment methods and Defi adoption
Modern payment methods and the adoption of decentralized finance (Defi) can significantly influence the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
The weaknesses in the current banking system have led to a surge in the popularity of modern payment methods and decentralized finance (DeFi) services, promoting touch-free payments globally (Cunha et al., 2021) A Statista survey (2022) revealed that digital wallets dominated e-commerce payments in 2020, comprising 38% of the total, followed by bank transfers at 23%, cash on delivery at 15%, credit cards at 14%, and debit cards at 10% The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) would diversify payment options, enhancing competition within the payments sector (Saudi Central Bank, 2022) Furthermore, the increasing acceptance of digital transactions can provide governments with valuable insights to effectively launch their own digital fiat currencies, facilitating a smoother transition and higher acceptance of CBDCs among consumers.
Research model - - + 11211911 11 1H TT TT To TT HT TH HT ng 33 3.2, s0 a0 ee
To fulfil the aim of the study, this article uses panel regression models approach.
Y: is the outcome variable, which is dependence at time £ and country í.
X2: is Exchange rate stability level
X3: is Financial market openness level
Monetary policy independence (X4) plays a crucial role in economic analysis, while the error term (git) accounts for unobserved factors influencing the dependent variable (Y) that are not included in the model This error term can vary among individuals and change over time, highlighting the complexity of economic predictions.
This study examines the monetary policy factors influencing the issuance of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) The dependent variable, denoted as y, ranges from 1 to 4, indicating the level of advancement in a country's CBDC issuance, with 0 representing no engagement in CBDC projects and -1 indicating the cancellation of such projects Data for this analysis was sourced from CBDC reports.
Tracker and covers the period 2010-2021 The data includes information explaining the status of a country at the time of issuing the CBDC These stages are as follows:
- Cancelled countries: Countries that cancelled or decommissioned a CBDC: -1
- Research countries: Countries that conducted the first explanatory CBDC research:
- Proof of concept countries: Countries are in an advanced research stage and published a CBDC proof of concept: 2
- Pilot countries: Countries that developed a CBDC that was tested in a real environment either with a limited number of parties or on a wide scale: 3
- Launched countries: Countries that officially fully launched a CBDC: 4
The independent variables in this study are categorized into three key areas: exchange rate stability, financial openness, and monetary policy independence The Trilemma Index evaluates countries by assigning scores that reflect their capacity to balance these three objectives, with a score range from 0 to 1 A higher score indicates greater policy trade-offs, whereas a lower score signifies enhanced policy coherence Data for these independent variables was sourced from NBER Working Paper #.
14533 and covers the same period.
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This article examines the adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) across different countries and territories from 2010 to 2023, focusing on how these currencies impact the achievement of monetary policy objectives as measured by trilemma index indicators After cleaning and balancing the dataset, the author presents comprehensive statistical data to support the analysis.
The Europe & Central Asia region has the highest number of countries actively studying and experimenting with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) over the past 13 years Governments in this region are engaged in both national CBDC initiatives and collaborative projects aimed at enhancing payment systems and facilitating cross-border transactions through w-CBDC projects, as highlighted by the BIS and CBDC Tracker (2023).
The Latin America and Caribbean region is actively engaged in a collaborative w-CBDC project, addressing significant banking challenges faced by its 35 nations These countries grapple with issues typical of small economies, including dollarization and a heavy reliance on foreign trade and remittances, which complicates their financial stability (Andersen, 2022).
35 banking practice called de-risking is taking a heavy toll So, it is probably no coincidence that the region is also at the forefront of digital currency adoption.
Table 4.2: : Statistics for dependence variable, independence variables, and control varriable
Variables Mean sD Min p25 p50 p75 Max
The Table 4.2 provides descriptive statistics for several variables related to Central Bank Digital Currencies, government and politic, and economic indicators.
The average adoption phase score for Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) across 1,271 observations is approximately 0.47, with a standard deviation of 0.81, indicating that most countries are still in the research and observation stage The scores range from a minimum of 0, reflecting no interest in CBDCs, to a maximum of 4, signifying an official launch of a CBDC Notably, the 25th percentile (p25) and median (p50) scores are both 0, while the 75th percentile (p75) score is 1, highlighting a significant level of hesitance among nations regarding CBDC adoption.
Exchange rate stability averages around 0.63, with a standard deviation of 0.33, indicating scores between 0 and 1 Monetary policy independence averages approximately 0.32, with a standard deviation of 0.26, reflecting a tendency among countries to pursue greater policy coherence; scores range from 0 to nearly 0.84, showing no country fully adheres to absolute monetary policy independence Financial market openness has an average score of about 0.56 and a standard deviation of 0.40, with scores also ranging from 0 to 1.
Government Effectiveness in these countries averages around 0.37, indicating significant variability in performance, as evidenced by a standard deviation of approximately 0.94 The scores vary widely, ranging from -2.07 to 2.20.
Political instability is characterized by an average score of approximately 0.11 and a standard deviation of around 0.96, reflecting weak governance performance The scores, which range from -2.60 to 1.46, indicate a significant lack of political stability.
Regulatory policy indicates the average score is approximately 0.38, with a standard deviation of about 0.94 The scores range from -1.66 to about 2.11.
InGDP shows the average natural logarithm of GDP is approximately 25.26, with a standard deviation of about 2.24.
Currently, there is an average of 0.77 fully developed Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) projects per country, with a standard deviation of 0.63, indicating that most nations are still in the research phase of CBDC development.
Table 4.3 presents the Pearson correlation coefficients between variables, indicating that the data is quantitative and normally distributed The results for hypotheses 1 to 3 are summarized in the table, revealing a strong correlation of 0.9350 between Regulatory Policy and Governance Effectiveness, suggesting a slight autocorrelation between these two variables.
Author continue to examine by use OLS regression to check VIF index and see the result in Table 4.4.
Table 4.4: Regression Analysis between Independent variables, control variables and Dependent variable
The analysis reveals that the independence variables—Exchange Rate Stability, Monetary Policy Independence, and Financial Market Openness—exhibit no perfect multicollinearity, as indicated by a Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) of less than 10 and a Tolerance value greater than 0.1 However, a mild multicollinearity is observed between the control variables, Regulatory Policy and Governance Effectiveness.
Performing the Hausman test between the FEM and REM models, we see that the p-value is less than 0.05, so we choose the FEM model as, result on Table 4.5
Table 4.5: Regression analysis with FEM model
- Coefficients (b-B) Difference Std.err (b) FEM (B) REM
Table 4.6: Regression Analysis between Independent variables, control variables and Dependent variable
Continue to examine with Breush-Pagan theory, author recognize that model has homoskedasticity After solve with it, author go to the last result on Table 4.7
Table 4.7: Regression result of the model
The result show that, the model will be Y = 0.56 - 0.12X2 - 0.17X3 - 3.59X4
All three independent variables were put into the model is Exchange rate stability, Monetary policy independence, Financial market openness all have statistical significance
40 as their p-value = 0.0000 < 0.05 And all three of them have negative effect to CBDC adoption.
So far Financial market openness variable has the strongest on CBDC adoption (B4 = -3.59) And Monetary policy independence variable is the weakest one (B1 = -0.12).
So come back to the main study question: “How do monetary policy goals impact on the
CBDC adoption level?” With the theory from previous research and the model calculated, the result show that monetary policy goals truly impact on CBDC adoption.
The execution and investigation of monetary policy objectives, such as exchange rate stability, monetary policy independence, and financial market openness, are becoming increasingly reliant on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) However, findings indicate that monetary policy factors adversely influence the likelihood of a central bank issuing a digital currency.
Our findings highlight the importance of educating managers, businesses, and individuals about Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) This serves as a crucial reminder for policymakers to carefully consider monetary policy objectives prior to the implementation of CBDCs Theoretical advancements, contextual understanding, and technical enhancements are essential for this development Moreover, the emergence of CBDCs could pave the way for a universal common currency, significantly impacting financial and payment systems.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) have the potential to replace cash in the future, but they are still in the early stages of development Their impact on the financial system and economy remains largely unexplored While CBDCs could address current payment issues, it is crucial to assess their long-term sustainability Additional research is essential to understand the implications of CBDCs for the international financial landscape.
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