strategic port analysis insights into hamburg and gemalinks port operations and analysis can gio project using pestel model

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY – HO CHI MINH CITY INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING & MANAGEMENT STRATEGIC PORT ANALYSIS: INSIGHTS INTO HAMBURG AND GEMALINK’S PORT O

ANALYZING GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION AND PERFORMANCE OF

Overview of Port of Hamburg

The Port of Hamburg, known as “Hamburger Hafen ”, in German, is a prominent seaport located on the banks of the river Elbe in the vibrant city of Hamburg, Germany Situated at 110 kilometers (68 miles) from its entry point into the North Sea, this port holds the esteemed title of being Germany's "Gateway to the World" or "Tor Zur Welt." It stands as the largest seaport in Germany by volume, playing a crucial role in the nation's trade and commerce When measured by twenty- foot standard container equivalents (TEUs), the Port of Hamburg ranks as the third busiest in Europe, following Rotterdam and Antwerp, and is also the 15th largest globally In 2014, an impressive 9.73 million TEUs were processed within its facilities

Figure 1-1 Top of largest seaports in Germany from 2019 to 2022 by goods shipment :

International University of Ho Chi Minh City

Industrial and Systems Engineering Department

P a g e | 11 two of these are depicted in the figure below which are the size of the largest vessel (compared to all countries) and the number of service providers per country (on average per country) Notably, as vessel size increases, the number of service providers tends to decrease but this trend appears to have been disrupted, even reversed, in the last three years Since late 2019, vessel sizes have only shown slight and near-saturation growth Starting in mid-2022, maritime shipping companies expanded into various new markets, leading to a gradual increase in the average number of service providers per country, reaching 13,000 operators per country, along with vessel sizes approaching 25,000 TEUs Currently, further increases in vessel volume seem unlikely soon, as this would require significant investments in the maritime infrastructure of countries

Figure 1-9: Average number of operators and largest ships per country

Regarding the recent rise in the number of service providers for the average countries, this is mainly linked to network expansions, particularly in Asia Furthermore, the widespread innovation in transport tariffs has encouraged smaller companies to enter or expand into new markets, including trade with North America and Europe However, while the number of shipping companies providing services to and from these two continents has just experienced a marginal

P a g e | 12 rise and continued to trend downward The Asian market saw a significant upsurge from Quarter

3, 2022 after remaining stable two years prior, reaching a count of nearly 30 operators, particularly prominent in China, India, Qatar, and Vietnam

Figure 1- : Average number of operators in 5 different regions 10

3.2.3 Possible return to global liner shipping network growth

Following several decades of remarkable growth that led to the presence of nearly 980 active container ports in the second quarter of 2019, the number of operational container ports within the global maritime transportation network has been decreasing since A significant decline was noted in the second quarter of the subsequent year due to countries grappling with pandemic-related constraints Simultaneously, the 2022 second quarter encountered a decrease attributed to disruptions in transportation and trade for the reason of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia However, more recently, there has been a slight increase in the total number of operational container ports globally, rising from 912 to 920 in the second quarter of two latest years Moreover, Asia has experienced the most robust increase in the number of active container ports across

P a g e | 13 different regions, demonstrating vigorous growth during recent years, while Europe and North America, in contrast, have undergone downturns

Figure 1- : Number of active container ports in the world between Q1 2006 and Q2 2023 11 3.3 Asian countries continue to lead in cargo handling performance

Jointly engineered by the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence, the Container Port Performance Index (or CPPI) leverages key performance indicators like the time a vessel remains in port and the efficiency of container management to provide an indicative assessment of waterside activities in container ports

Figure 1- : Number of active container ports, regional totals, 2006 Q1-2023 Q2 12

These organizations' collaboration has revealed a significant concentration of high-performing ports in Asia, with 18 ports in the region securing spots in the top 25 global rankings Delving further into the geographical data, 11 of these top-performing ports are in Eastern Asia, and four are situated in Western Asia

Figure 1- : Top 25 ports under the Container Port Performance Index 2022 13

According to the Container Port Performance Index and it is shown in the figure -14], Asian [1 ports significantly lead in global rankings with a median index value standing at +53.6 They are trailed by ports in Latin America and the Caribbean, which have a median index of +12.0 Further down the ranking are African ports with a -27.3 median, Oceania at -33.1, and North America with a median index of -42.6 The index itself serves as an evaluative tool, scrutinizing a port's ability to manage container operations including imports, exports, and trans-shipments Topping this index are the Yangshan port in China and the Salalah port in Oman Their exemplary performance can be attributed to significant investments in enhancing trans-shipment functionalities, incorporating automation technologies, and fostering system interoperability among various stakeholders like border agencies and logistics operators These targeted investments create a

P a g e | 16 virtuous cycle, bolstering the business environment and facility capabilities, which in turn elevates overall port performance and leads to greater operational efficiency and reduced time for port calls

Figure 1- : Container Port Performance Index values 20214 2, ports’ regional distributions

Table [1-1] outlines how long it takes to move a container in various countries, expressed in minutes per individual container move In an analysis of the top 25 nations based on the frequency of port calls, a clear correlation emerges: larger call sizes, specifically those exceeding 4001 moves, result in faster loading and unloading times averaging under one minute per container —The acceleration in performance is primarily due to the engagement of additional port cranes for each ship, enabling simultaneous operations Moreover, bigger call sizes often correspond with a higher level of automation throughout the port cranes and yards In terms of speed across different call size categories, Hong Kong, China, led the pack, followed by Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and Viet Nam, each of which posted top container handling speeds in three separate categories Malaysia and Viet Nam excelled in two categories, while China, India, the Republic of Korea, Turkey, and Taiwan Province of China each stood out in one specific call size category

Table 1-1: Minutes per container move, 2022, by range of call size, top 25 countries by port calls

3.3.2 Improvements in the performance of bulk shipping

By merging the Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking data for ships with information related to cargo movements, Table -2] offers a comprehensive performance analysis of bulk [1 carriers across the top 30 countries in terms of vessel arrivals The data reveals that Australia excels in the average speed of loading, clocking an impressive 48 tons per minute In contrast, Oman takes the lead for the swiftest unloading of dry bulk cargo, with a rate of 34 tons per minute Remarkably, all four primary performance indicators outlined in the table have shown an upward trajectory over the past year This positive trend can be understood as the result of ongoing technological evolution coupled with a resurgence from pandemic-related operational setbacks

Table 1-2 Cargo and vessel handling performance for dry bulk carriers, top 30 economies by vessel : arrivals, average values for the first four months of 2023 and changes from 2022

In Table [1-3], the efficiency of tanker cargo and vessel operations is spotlighted for the top 30 nations, measured by ship arrivals Cargo management showed marked improvements in both loading and discharging phases, paralleling the trends observed in dry bulk carriers Yet, there's a deviation when assessing the waiting periods for tanker unloading The year 2022 marked a significant spike in waiting times, chiefly attributable to pronounced port congestions in Qatar and Angola These setbacks with Qatar's wait times increasing six-fold and Angola's doubling— — contrasted the overall progress Speed-wise, Angola stands out in loading, achieving 98 tons per minute, whereas Kuwait sets the benchmark in unloading with a rate of 169 tons per minute

Table 1-3 Cargo and vessel handling performance for tankers, top 30 economies by vessel arrivals, : average values for the first four months of 2023 and changes from 2022

3.4 Time in port and congestion recovering from pandemic disruptions

3.4.1 Improved time in port since Mid-2022

Over the past few years, the port turnaround time for vessels with a gross tonnage (GT) of 1,000 or more, though notably slow, especially for dry bulk carriers at the lengthiest ports (approximately 2-2.1 days), has exhibited consistent improvement Moreover, a typical dry bulk carrier spends about three times longer in port compared to container vessels This disparity can be attributed to

P a g e | 20 the lower value of dry bulk cargo and the lesser importance of loading/unloading speed Moreover, full-load cargo is usually stowed or discharged, while container ships call a sequence of ports, at with only a part of the cargo handled at each port, resulting in a time in port of less than one day However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, schedules were disrupted, and the port turnaround time was noticeably prolonged for all vessel types (with an average increase of around 0.1 days) As the pandemic and related disruptions gradually receded, vessel turnaround times improved in the second quarter of 2022, although they remained above pre-pandemic levels, as illustrated in the chart below

Figure 1- : Time in port for different types of vessel from S1 2018 to S2 2022 (days) 15

The average waiting time of ships at a berth before being able to dock fast or slow is an indicator of potential congestion and delay in port throughput As observed in the chart below, it shows that container ships tend to spend more time in ports in developing countries (an average of 8-9 hours) than in developed countries (approximately 3-4 hours) Besides, this higher average waiting times

P a g e | 21 can be attributed to a combination of faster customs clearance, advanced infrastructure, and higher labor productivity in developed nations

Figure 1- : Average waiting times of container ships at port (hours) 16

However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the duration for waiting in developed countries (peaking at nearly 10 hours) accelerated more significantly than in developing countries, even surpassing the waiting times of the latter in early 2022 (returning to around 4 hours) The reasons for this surge can be traced to rising demand for imported or exported goods, especially during lockdown periods combined with economic stimuli featuring remote deliveries Ports were unable to cope with the sudden surge in cargo volume, resulting in severe congestion, particularly in North America and some European ports

In addition to the average waiting time, the proportion of fleet capacity at anchorage or in ports can also act as an indicator of congestion trends and port productivity The diagram below illustrates the figures for all types of ships from January 2016 to April 2023

From July 2022 to February 2023, this index decreased for all types of cargo vessels, with the share of global container ship capacity in ports dropping from approximately 37% to 32% For

Port Performance in Review of Maritime Transport 2023

ANALYZING GEMALINK PORT THROUGHPUT AND REGIONAL

Overview of Gemalink Port

Gemanlink port is in Vung Tau province, also known as Ba Ria - Vung Tau, located in the southeast of Vietnam It is a coastal province located in the southeastern region of the country, along the South China Sea Vung Tau is known for its coastline, beaches and is a major tourist destination in Vietnam, through the construction of the port, it has become better known as a city since it connects many points in the country This port has been operating since the beginning of

2021, although its construction began in February 2019

Figure 2-1: Main view from Gemalink Port, Vietnam

Gemalink port is mainly known because is one of the deepest draft ports in Vietnan, reaching a depth of 16.5 meters and also securing a spot among the top 19 ports worldwide capable of accommodating mammoth mother vessels of up to 200,000 DWT Positioned to be a key transshipment hub in Vietnam and the broader Asia-Pacific region, Gemalink stands tall as a source of pride for th nation e

Not only is Gemalink an epitome of size and capacity, but it also prides itself on modernity, adhering to European standards for its facilities The ingenious design of the berth system includes dedicated spaces for feeders and barges, a strategic move aimed at optimizing productivity and mitigating the congestion issues prevalent in many other seaports

• Length of barge berth: 230m (phase 1);

• Length of main berth: 800m (phase 1);

• STS Gantry Crane: 8 Super Pos

• Safety working load: o 65 T (under spreader); o 85 T (under cargo beam);

• Lift: 50 m above quay rails (10 tiers abov deck);

• Safety working load: 41 MT (under spreader);

Figure 2-2: The infrastructure in Gemalink Port

Throughput Evaluation in the Period 2019 Current

2.1 Planning and Construction Stage (Period 2018 2020) –

The throughput of a port is a key indicator of its efficiency and effectiveness In the case of Gemalink Port, analyzing the throughput over these three years can provide valuable insights into its development Between 2018 and 2020, Gemalink Port completed its procedures and gradually commenced operations This port was remarkable not only for its substantial total investment of

520 million USD for two phases (of which Phase 1 was completed in 2021 with an investment of

330 million USD) but also for being the country's largest capacity port with 3 million TEUs in the next stage operating from 2025 The port was officially inaugurated in May 2021 and operated at a minimum of 80% of its designed capacity in 2020, aiming to reach full capacity by 2022 This substantial increase in throughput demonstrated the port's ability to attract shipping lines, logistics providers, and shippers, further establishing its position as a major trade hub in the Southeast Asian region

Figure 2-3: Details of Gemalink Port project

In 2021, Gemalink went into operation, achieved a break-even point, and generated profits, recording an operational volume of 800,000 TEUs It became the first port in Vietnam to reach a throughput of 1 million TEUs in just over a year since its inception in March 2021

In the first six months of 2022, Gemalink's operational efficiency reached 87%, handling 650,000 TEUs, a significant increase from its initial 40% operational efficiency, which amounted to over 300,000 TEUs Gemalink's market share in the Cai Mep - Thi Vai region has risen to 22% from 15% in 2021 In the current scenario, where most ports in the Cai Mep - Thi Vai port cluster are operating at over 90% capacity or maximum capacity, Gemadept has planned to operate Gemalink at over 90% capacity in 2022, targeting a throughput of 1.4 million TEUs while maintaining a 20% market share However, as reported, the port had unloaded 806,000 TEUs in the first eight months of 2022, and the projected throughput for 2022 may reach 1.2 million TEUs, falling short of the initial target of 1.4 million TEUs

Figure 2-4: Forecasting throughput between 2021 and 2025

Even though it achieved only around 70-85% of the projected throughput, the consistent growth in volume over two years of operation demonstrates the port's efficiency and capacity Hence,

Gemadept still aims to achieve a 17% growth target in 2023, reaching 1.4 million TEUs for Gemalink Port

The remarkable expansion of Gemalink Port from 2021 to 2022 holds significant importance for regional and international trade The expansion of the port has bolstered Vietnam's increasing role in the global supply chain, contributing to the nation's economic development Furthermore, Vietnam's participation in international trade agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), along with its strategic location at Cai Mep Thi Vai Port, has positively impacted – trade volume, benefitting not only Vietnam but also other Southeast Asian countries and beyond Moreover, Gemalink Port's modern infrastructure and services have enhanced its reputation, attracted more shipping lines, and further solidified its position as a global trade hub

In conclusion, the volume via Gemalink Port the period of 2 years demonstrates exceptional in growth and the port's pivotal role in regional and international trade Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, Gemalink Port continued to increase throughput, emphasizing its efficiency, strategic location, and contribution to Vietnam's economic development As it continues to adapt and expand, Gemalink Port is expected to play an even more crucial role in the context of global trade and logistics in the coming years.

Hinterland and Foreland Analysis

Gemalink Port is part of the strategically critical Cai Mep-Thi Vai port complex It is one of Vietnam's most significant deep-water ports, designed to accommodate large post-Panamax vessels While our port serves the immediate province, its strategic importance radiates much

P a g e | 30 farther, incorporating key industrial zones and economic centers in southern Vietnam, most notably Ho Chi Minh City and its environs

The following provinces have the most volumes of products transferred from and to the hinterland of Gemalink port for importing and exporting purposes:

Regarding international trade lanes, Vietnam and Cambodia signed an Agreement on Water Transport in 2009 to create good conditions for transport activities and both nations has cleared nearly 20 million tons of cargo The trade route between Vietnam and Cambodia, particularly through the ports of Phnom Penh and Sihanoukville, has seen a significant surge in cargo transportation demand, as these ports have become vital gathering and transshipment points The LM17 container terminal at Phnom Penh port, with a yearly capacity of 300,000 TEUs (Twenty- foot Equivalent Units), exceeded its capacity in 2021 by handling over 321,000 TEUs, indicating a strong upward trend in transit goods to Ho Chi Minh City and the Cai Mep Thi Vai area This – increase is further evidenced by the overall growth on the Agreement route: nearly 350,000 TEUs and over 800,000 tons of liquid and bulk cargo in 2021, escalating to around 400,000 TEUs and about 1 million tons in 2022

Ba Ria -Vung Tau is a crucial gateway for both exports and imports due to its strategic geographic location and port infrastructure which can accommodate large deep-water vessels Therefore, most

P a g e | 31 commodities can transfer from and to Ba Ria-Vung Tau to transit to another place Some of the common commodities is listed as follow:

▪ Consumers Goods (electronics, textiles, FMCG goods,…);

• Potential hinterland logistics center in the Cai Mep - Thi Vai region:

The Tan Cang Cai Mep Container Terminal (TCCT) is one of the ports located in Cai Mep-Thi – Vai area with the maximum weight of 160,000 DWT can be handled TCCT soon recognized the potential of this region, so they are gradually transforming into a key logistics hub for Ba Ria- Vung Tau Province by elevating the service standard as well as driving the commercial activities effectively TCCT has formed some crucial partnerships with Ba Son Corporation and KCTC Vietnam to scale the expansion and the reputation of its hinterland

The province aims to concentrate its investment efforts on bolstering the logistics infrastructure in Phu My township and Vung Tau city This strategic focus is designed to improve connectivity not only within the province but also between the northern key economic region and the Mekong Delta, as well as with countries in the development triangle To this end, Ba Ria-Vung Tau plans to foster the creation of logistics businesses, invest in technological innovations, and focus on specialized logistics training Furthering this agenda, the Cai Mep Ha Logistics Centre, to approved in September 2020, spans 1,763 hectares It includes a logistics hub as well as a downstream port, Cai Mep Ha, which occupies more than 984 hectares The center also allocates

P a g e | 32 over 455 hectares for surface area, more than 197 hectares for clean energy storage, and an additional 125-plus hectares for potential water surface area

Figure 2-5: The design of Cai Mep Ha Logistics Centre

The foreland of Gemalink Port fundamentally underscores its pivotal role as a global trade hub, acting as a key pivot in the complex machinery of regional and global trade dynamics The manifold geographical regions and markets encompassed within Gemalink's expansive foreland affirm its centrality in both regional and global trade ecosystems, thereby constituting a significant catalyst for Vietnam's involvement in international trade agreements and, concomitantly, for economic development

Figure 2-6: Map connection of Gemalink port Based on the international route of Gemalink port, we can identify four main areas which Gemalink port is linked to:

• Americas Area: Gemalink Port forms an intrinsic linkage with the Americas region, which encompasses a range of notable ports in North and South America Among these, ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach in the United States and Santos in Brazil play a pivotal role as core constituents of Gemalink's foreland This linkage establishes and fosters extensive trade relationships, facilitating the bi-directional flow of goods to and from the burgeoning Americas market

• India Area: The foreland of Gemalink expansively extends its reach to encompass the Indian subcontinent, ushering in crucial trade relationships with prominent Indian ports Vital Indian ports, including but not limited to Mumbai, Chennai, Nhava Sheva, and Kolkata, represent integral components of Gemalink's overseas market This seamless

P a g e | 34 linkage provides the fertile ground for the exchange of commodities and cargo between Vietnam and India, thereby further expanding Gemalink's international footprint

• Japan Area: Gemalink Port exerts its prominence as a paramount gateway, nurturing the robust trade ties that bind Vietnam and Japan This connection is exemplified by a constellation of pivotal Japanese ports, such as Yokohama, Tokyo, Kobe, and Osaka The trade routes weaving Gemalink to these Japanese counterparts serve as conduits for the exchange of goods, thereby engendering economic collaboration and synergies between these two regions

• Europe Area: In fulfilling its role as an international trade nexus, Gemalink Port is profoundly connected to European markets, thereby forming a substantial linkage to the European area This connection entails various key European ports, including the likes of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Hamburg in Germany, Antwerp in Belgium, and Felixstowe in the United Kingdom These European ports occupy fundamental positions within Gemalink's foreland, serving as crucial nodes that foster dynamic trade relationships and facilitate the seamless transit of goods between Vietnam and Europe

ASSESSING CAN GIO PORT PROJECT USING PESTEL MODEL: A

Overview of Can Gio Port Project

The Can Gio port project is situated 50 kilometers from Ho Chi Minh City's center on the remote island of Phu Loi, in the Can Gio Mangrove Biosphere Reserve's transition area The plan has a total investment capital of 129 trillion VND (about 5.5 billion USD), of which 30% is a joint venture between Vietnam Maritime Corporation (VIMC) and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) the world's second largest shipping company does research together, and the rest is – borrowed capital Moreover, a total of 481 hectares of ocean surface area and 90 hectares of island land used for coastal protection make up the 571-hectare port, which makes up 0.8% of this commune Hence, the protected forest area must be converted for the project to be implemented

Figure 3-1: The geographical location of Can Gio Port Project

The project of building this port that has been proposed to be added for developing Vietnam’s seaport system by 2030 Can Gio is said to have the benefit of being close to significant

P a g e | 36 international sea lanes and having the finest water channel, which can accommodate the greatest tonnage ships in the world (250,000 tons) This port seeks to take advantage of the untapped international transshipment market in Vietnam; according to statistics from 2021, ports in Southeast Asia account for 28% of all international transshipment traffic worldwide Therefore, its goal will be a pivot between the international transshipment hub for the region and strengthening relationships between Cai Mep and Thi Vai port cluster

Figure 3-2: The potential transhipment route for Can Gio Port Project

After the port project is finished in all phases, it is anticipated to be finished in 2027 with a first- year cargo throughput of 2.1 million TEUs, or 7% of the port of Singapore (2021), which is now the busiest transit hub in the world Half of Singapore's present production, or 16.9 million TEUs, might flow through the port in 2047 when the project is completed, which is anticipated in 2045 Huge ships with a capacity of up to 24,000 TEUs will arrive at the port Additionally, 8,000-ton ships and cargo ships weighing between 10,000 and 65,000 tons are received by the port

Figure 3-3: The forecast of the invested capital and throughput of Can Gio port

The Can Gio International Transshipment Port project is anticipated to generate between 34,000 and 40,000 billion VND in annual revenue for the government finances when it is completed, according to the Department of Transport of Ho Chi Minh City When considering full utilization until the end of 2045, the projected budget is $5.45 billion Moreover, the experts estimate that this mega port may generate between $2 and $3 billion USD yearly, excluding income from ancillary operations and the potential for progressive capital recovery However, there are no traffic floors in the Can Gio port development area The approximate expense associated with constructing new 11 km long, four-lane roadways, including a bridge that spans the Long Tau River and connects to Rung Sac road, is more than 12,000 billion VND Likewise, new investments are also required for the water, communication, and energy systems here

Figure 3-4: The transportation infrastruction project related to Can Gio port

Over 20 years of building, this super port with a 10,000-hectare free trade zone (FTZ) spread across

4 communes in Can Gio intended to generate employment for thousands of people Hence, is raising the obstacles that managing and instructing the personnel here in addition to setting up arrangements for this increased number of persons.

The Concept of PESTEL Model

The PESTEL model is a strategic managem framework used to analyze and evaluate external factors that can influence a organization's performance and decision-maki

PESTEL is an acronym representing six k categories of macro-environmental facto

Environmental, and Legal Here's a closer look each component: Figure 3-5: PESTEL Analysis

− Political Factors: Examines the impact of government policies, regulations, and political stability on the business environment Examples: Tax policies, trade tariffs, labor laws, government stability, and regulations

− Economic Factors: Focuses on economic conditions and how they affect businesses Examples: Inflation rates, exchange rates, interest rates, economic growth, and overall economic stability

− Social Factors: Considers societal and cultural influences on business operations Examples: Demographic trends, cultural norms, social attitudes, lifestyle changes, and population demographics

− Technological Factors: Examines the impact of technology on the industry and organization Examples: Innovation, automation, research and development, adoption of new technologies, and technological infrastructure

− Environmental Factors: Focuses on factors related to sustainability and the natural environment Examples: Climate change policies, environmental regulations, corporate social responsibility (CSR), and ecological sustainability

− Legal Factors: Analyzes the legal framework within which the organization operates Examples: Antitrust laws, labor laws, intellectual property laws, health and safety regulations, and compliance requirements

− The PESTEL model provides a systematic approach to understanding the external environment in which an organization operates

− It helps identify opportunities and threats that may arise from external factors

− PESTEL analysis is crucial for strategic planning, allowing organizations to adapt to changes and make informed decisions

− The model is versatile and applicable across various industries and sectors

− Organizations use PESTEL analysis during the strategic planning process to assess the external factors that could impact their business environment

− It is often used alongside other strategic tools, such as SWOT analysis, to develop a comprehensive understanding of both internal and external factors

In summary, the PESTEL model is a valuable tool for businesses and decision-makers, providing a structured approach to analyzing and responding to the dynamic external factors that shape the business landscape Therefore, we use PESTEL model with social perspective to analyze the Can Gio Port Project in the next part.

Social Factors’ Impacts on Can Gio Port Project

− Positive Impact: The Can Gio Port Project is likely to create new job opportunities for the local population This could include positions in construction, port operations, logistics, and related industries The influx of businesses and economic activities associated with the port can contribute to the growth of the local job market

− Negative Impact: There may be concerns about the quality and stability of the jobs created

If the project relies heavily on temporary or migrant labor, it might not lead to long-term sustainable employment for the local community Additionally, there could be disparities in job access and benefits, favoring certain groups over others

− Positive Impact: The project might bring economic development to the region, leading to improved living standards In some cases, people might willingly relocate if they see economic and social benefits, such as better housing, infrastructure, and services

− Negative Impact: There is a risk of forced displacement, especially if the project requires a significant amount of land This can lead to the loss of homes, farmland, and disruption of established communities Displaced individuals and communities may face challenges in adapting to new environments and may experience social and economic hardships 3.3 Cultural Impact

− Positive Impact: The Can Gio Port Project could bring cultural exchange and diversity to the region through interactions with workers and businesses from different backgrounds

It might also contribute to the preservation and promotion of local culture if there are efforts to integrate local traditions into the project

− Negative Impact: There is a potential threat to the cultural identity of the local community Rapid industrialization and urbanization associated with the port project may lead to the erosion of traditional practices, languages, and social structures Communities may face challenges in preserving their cultural heritage in the face of significant changes

To ensure a positive overall impact, it is crucial for project developers and stakeholders to engage in comprehensive and inclusive planning This involves consulting with local communities, addressing concerns, providing fair compensation for those affected by displacement, and implementing sustainable practices that consider both economic development and social well- being Regular monitoring and assessment during and after project implementation are essential to

P a g e | 42 address emerging issues and ensure that the project aligns with the best interests of the local population.

Recommendations

The Can Gio port development initiative can achieve substantial cost savings by leveraging the available local workforce Nevertheless, since there are skill mismatches in existing local educational institutions and training programs which are unable to fulfill the project's distinctive objectives, deviations in credentials may result in disparities in the quality and competence of this workforce As a result, it may influence the local labor market through inflationary pressures or an unexpected surge in employment As a result, it is crucial to develop workplaces that both improve workers' expertise and alleviate the present scenario of economic fluctuation The following are some recommendations that organizations can put into practice:

− Skills Development Programs: Implement training and skills development programs to enhance the capabilities of the local workforce This can include vocational training, education partnerships with local institutions, and on-the-job training

− Job Fair and Recruitment Drives: Organize job fairs and recruitment drives specifically targeting the local community This ensures that employment opportunities are accessible and visible to the local workforce

− Fair Employment Practices: Enforce fair employment practices to prevent discrimination and promote equal opportunities This includes transparent hiring processes, non- discriminatory policies, and fair wages

− Collaboration with Local Businesses: Collaborate with existing local businesses to identify synergies and potential partnerships This can help boost the overall economic ecosystem and ensure that the Can Gio Port Project contributes positively to the local economy

Displacement may be the most challenging aspect of large-scale construction projects, particularly for residences that have been on Phu Loi Island for several years Due to the disturbance of their lives caused by relocation, investors could stumble into issues like opposition and demonstrations from communities that have been either directly or indirectly affected by the relocation endeavor The following recommendations should be carefully considered, but it is additionally essential to consider the social dynamics and structure of the displaced communities, as well as the humanitarian component of the resettlement process:

− Transparent Communication: Establish open and transparent communication channels with affected communities Keep them informed about the resettlement process, compensation packages, and timelines

− Community Participation: Involve the affected communities in decision-making processes related to resettlement This can include forming community committees, conducting public consultations, and seeking feedback on proposed plans

− Fair Compensation: Ensure that compensation packages are fair, just, and reflective of the true value of the properties and livelihoods being affected Consider not only monetary compensation but also alternative livelihood options

− Long-Term Support: Provide long-term support to resettled communities, including access to education, healthcare, and employment opportunities in the new locations

The Can Gio project is next to a long-established residential neighborhood This location not only provides valuable resources, but it additionally contributes to maintaining the long-standing culture of the city, thus development needs to be undertaken with preservation in consideration Cultural legacy might be endangered due to ignorance, negligence, or societal miscommunications between foreign experts and capitalists Consequently, there is essential to guarantee compliance to regional and global laws concerning the conservation of cultural assets, such as these:

− Cultural Impact Assessment: Conduct a thorough cultural impact assessment to identify and assess the significance of heritage sites in the project area

− Mitigation Strategies: Develop and implement robust mitigation strategies to minimize any adverse effects on cultural heritage sites This may include rerouting infrastructure, implementing protective measures, or even relocating certain sites if deemed necessary

− Community Involvement: Involve local communities in the preservation efforts This can include forming cultural committees, providing education on the importance of heritage, and integrating community feedback into preservation plans

− Documentation and Digitization: Document and digitize cultural heritage assets to ensure that even if physical relocation is required, the cultural significance is preserved for future generations

In summary, the success of the Can Gio Port Project in terms of social factors should be relied on a holistic and inclusive approach Balancing economic development with the well-being of the local workforce, fair resettlement practices, and the preservation of cultural heritage requires proactive planning, community involvement, and ongoing monitoring and adaptation of strategies based on feedback and changing circumstances

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, this research has systematically explored the intricate dynamics that define and influence the performance and strategic viability of port operations in two distinct contexts the — Port of Hamburg and a key Vietnamese port, while also assessing the prospective Can Gio port project through the PESTEL analytical lens

Through comprehensive analysis, this paper delineates the impact of geographical location on port performance, benchmarks the success of the Port of Hamburg, and evaluates Vietnam's Gemalink Port's throughput and hinterland-foreland dynamics Our findings illustrate how the strategic location of the Port of Hamburg fortifies its standing in global maritime transport, setting a performance standard that Gemalink Port aspires to through its regional connectivity and infrastructural growth The scrutiny of the Can Gio port project via the PESTEL framework elucidates the influence of multifaceted external factors on port development viability In sum, these insights underscore the necessity for ports to integrate geographical advantages, regional synergies, and a nuanced understanding of external variables to excel in the competitive arena of maritime logistics

In the macroeconomic context, the success of Vietnam's seaports is intrinsically linked to the political, legal, and economic frameworks established by the state It is imperative that the government exercises astute foresight and executes its strategic objectives with diligence to propel the maritime sector forward Anticipated technological advancements and economic reforms are poised to serve as the bedrock for significant strides in this industry The maritime industry's horizon is expected to be reshaped by technological and managerial innovations, paving the way for Vietnam to cultivate a more robust and appealing port infrastructure

1 Accessible ferries in Hamburg (n.d.) Hamburg-travel.com https://www.hamburg- travel.com/barrier-free-travel/information-service/mobility-accessible-travel- -hamburg/ in accessible-ferries- -hamburg/in

2 All-purpose port Hamburg The Official Website of the Port of Hamburg https://www hafen-hamburg.de/en/portofhamburg/port-of-hamburg/

3 Cảng gemalink https://gml.gemadept.com.vn/vietnams-largest-deep-seaport-gemalink- -to reach-80-per-ce nt-capacity-this-year-3780/index.html

4 Cảng gemalink https://gml.gemadept.com.vn/en/index.html

5 Đức P (2023, October 19) Siêu cảng Cần Giờ: Tính đến lợi ích cao nhất, tác động ít nhất tuoitre.vn https://tuoitre.vn/sieu-cang-can-gio-tinh-den-loi-ich-cao-nhat-tac-dong- -nhat-it 20231019084947775.htm

6 Grửòte Seehọfen Deutschlands - Gỹterversand bis 2022 (n.d.) Statista https://de.sta tista.com/statistik/daten/studie/239219/umfrage/groesste-haefen- -deutschland-nach-gue in terversand/

7 Guest User (2022, October 19) Port of Hamburg Sustainable Ships https://www sustainable-ships.org/rules-regulations/port-hamburg

8 Hai T T (2022, November 14) Toàn cảnh vị trí đắc địa dự kiến xây siêu cảng quốc tế Cần Giờ Tổng công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam- -VIMC Tổng công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam- VIMC; Tổng công ty Hàng hải Việt Nam https://vimc.co/toan-canh-vi-tri-dac-dia-du- kien-xay-sieu-cang-quoc- -can-gio/te

9 Hoàng, S (2022, November 14) 3 Vietnamese ports post highest throughput VnEconomy https://en.vneconomy.vn/3-vietnamese-ports-post-highest-throughput.htm

10 Home (n.d.) UNCTAD.https://unctad.org/

11 Modal Split in hinterland transports (n.d.) The Official Website of the Port of Hamburg https://www.hafen-hamburg.de/en/statistics/modal-split/

12 Quang T D (2023, October 24) Đề án siêu cảng 5,4 tỷ USD ở Cần Giờ: Cân nhắc hài hòa lợi ích cafef https://cafef.vn/de- -sieu-cang-54- -usd-o-an ty can-gio-can-nhac-hai-hoa- loi-ich-188231024071236627.chn

13 (N.d.) Unctad.org https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2023_en.pdf

14 VnExpress (2023, June 28) Hai dự án 15 tỷ USD kỳ vọng giúp Cần Giờ “cất cánh.” vnexpress.net https://vnexpress.net/hai-du- -15- -usd-ky-vong-giup-can-gio-an ty cat-canh- 4621385.html

15 Gemalink (n.d.) Port Infrastructure Gemadept Corporation https://gml.gemadept.com vn/port-infrastructure-4207/index.html

1 Considering the challenges faced by COVID-19 (during its operation), how did Gemalink Port manage its operational phase (2021-present) and what were the key factors contributing to its growth and efficiency during this period?

Answer: So, we think every port suffered the consequences during Covid-19 corruptions (raising many problems like shortage of empty containers, oil prices…) however by its strategic location (Cai Mep - Thi Vai cluster ports → one of the most common trade hub for many shipping line), Gemalink still could achieve a break-even point and profitability in 2021 as I mentioned above Therefore, I think some key factors contributing to this success included strategic planning, operational adaptability, and sustained growth efforts by Gemadept

2 What are the potential conflicts that can arise due to the construction of the Can Gio Port, particularly concerning existing ports in the Ho Chi Minh City area?

Answer: The construction of the Can Gio Port could lead to conflicts with existing ports, such as Cat Lai and Hiep Phuoc in Ho Chi Minh City These conflicts may arise in terms of competition for cargo volume and revenue among ports Considering that Cat Lai Port operates at its designed capacity with significant overuse, the Can Gio International Transshipment Port project presents both an opportunity to alleviate congestion and a potential source of competition, impacting established ports within the city

3 Can you think of other examples where the geographical location of a port has had a significant impact on its performance?

Answer: Its proximity to major European markets enhances its significance, contributing substantially to Germany's economic strength The port's access to inland waterways facilitates efficient transportation, extending its reach to the hinterland Navigational advantages, such as a navigable river and infrastructure for large vessels, make Hamburg Port a central player in European maritime activities, highlighting the impact of its strategic geographical location on its overall success

4 Do you think the development of Can Gio Port will also support the development of other ports?

Answer: We think the answer is yes The Vietnamese government already has a plan to construct a port in Ca Mau to attract more shipping companies, as Thailand also wants to create a canal so it could make their port become an attractive transit port to compete with Singapore

5 Compared to other ports in Cai Mep - Thi Vai port cluster, which advantages do Gemalink have to attract global trade?

− Deep Water Berths: Gemalink is known for its deep-water berths, which can accommodate large vessels, including New Panamax ships This capability is a significant advantage as it allows for direct calls from Europe and North America, reducing the need for transshipment and thereby lowering costs and transit times

− Location and Accessibility: The strategic location of Gemalink, near the international maritime routes and its proximity to Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam's economic hub, makes it an attractive option for shipping lines and exporters This location facilitates quick distribution of goods to inland destinations.

Tiêu đề	Strategic Port Analysis: Insights into Hamburg and Gemalink’s Port Operations and Analysis Can Gio Project Using PESTEL Model
Tác giả	Bui Bich Hue, Vo Hoang Anh Huy, Nguyen Khanh Ha, Espineira Amarelo Maria
Người hướng dẫn	Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ho Thi Thu Hoa, Ms. Doan Thuy Nha
Trường học	Vietnam National University – Ho Chi Minh City International University School of Industrial Engineering & Management
Chuyên ngành	Port Planning and Operations
Thể loại	Group Project
Năm xuất bản	2024
Thành phố	Ho Chi Minh City

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