In the scope of the activity, we only considered the frequency of the climate related phenomena, without considering the intensity, as well as the area affected and duration of the events (such as for storm and flood level, the intensity of droughts, area affected and the duration, etc). Weighted of each indicator are shown in Table 1. Then, applying standardized formula (2) and formula (3) to calculate the exposure indicators.
FINAL REPORT MAPPING OUT VULNERABLE AREAS AND POPULATION DUE TO ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM Final Report FINAL REPORT MAPPING OUT VULNERABLE AREAS AND POPULATION DUE TO ADVERSE HEALTH IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM Hanoi, 01 – 2011 ii Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam Final Report Organization structure Technical and financial supporting agencies: World Health Organization (WHO) Vietnam Health Environment Management Agency (VIHEMA) Implementing agency: Research Center for Rural Population and Health (RCRPH) Key implementers: Tran Dac Phu, PhD., VIHEMA Assoc Prof Trinh Huu Vach, PhD., RCRPH Ton Tuan Nghia, MPH., WHO Assoc Prof Nguyen Van Hoang, PhD., independent consultant Assoc Prof Nguyen Vo Ky Anh, PhD., independent consultant Assoc Prof Le Khac Duc, PhD., independent consultant Assoc Prof Luong Xuan Hien, PhD., RCRPH Duong Chi Nam, MD., VIHEMA Nguyen Bich Thuy, MPH., VIHEMA Phan Thi Thu Hang, MPH., VIHEMA Pham Son Tung, BA., RCRPH Doan Trong Trung, MPH., RCRPH Nguyen Van Thinh, MPH., RCRPH Trinh Huu Hiep, BA., RCRPH Trinh Hanh Phuc, BA., RCRPH Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam iii Final Report Table of contents Introduction Overview on climate change Study methods 3.1 Definitions and concepts 3.2 Methodology for mapping vulnerability .7 Study results 11 4.1 Exposure map 11 4.2 Health sensitivity map 18 4.3 Health adaptive capacity map 24 4.4 Vulnerability map due to the CC impacts on health 29 4.5 Disasters damages and health outcomes map 33 Conclusions and recommendations 40 5.1 Conclusions 40 5.2 Recomendations 40 References 42 VIETNAMESE REFERENCES 42 ENGLISH REFERENCES .44 Annexes 47 Annex 1: Maps of basic indicators .47 Annex 2: Figures of basic indicators .52 iv Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam Final Report List of tables Table Weights of exposure indicators 13 Table Exposure scores of all 63 provinces/cities 14 Table Exposure of all 63 provinces/cities in groups .17 Table Health sensitivity scores of all 63 provinces/cities .20 Table Health sensitivity scores of all 63 provinces/cities in groups .23 Table Indicators and weights of health adaptive capacity .24 Table Scores of health adapative capacity of 63 provinces/cities 25 Table Scores of health adaptive capacity of 63 provinces/cities in groups 28 Table Weights of component indicators of the vulnerability to CC .29 Table 10 Scores of vulnerability of 63 provinces/cites 29 Table 11 Scores of vulnerability of 63 provinces/cites in groups 32 Table 12 Indicators and weights of disasters damages and health outcome of 63 provinces/cities 33 Table 13 Scores of disasters damages and health outcomes of 63 provinces/cities 35 Table 14 Scores of disasters damages and health outcomes of 63 provinces/cities in groups .38 Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam v Final Report List of graphs Graph 1: Diagrammatic representation of the direct and indirect pathways by which climate change affects human health .4 Graph 2: Steps for making vulnerability and its component maps .8 Graph Exposure scores of all provinces/cities in graph .15 Graph Exposure map to CC 16 Graph 5: Indicators and weights in health sensitivity map .20 Graph Health sensitivity scores of all pronvinces/cities in graph 21 Graph Health sensitivity map .22 Graph Scores of health adaptive capacity of 63 provinces/cities in graph 26 Graph Health adaptive capacity map 27 Graph 10 Scores of vulnerability of 63 provinces/cites in graph .31 Graph 11 Health vulnerability map 31 Graph 12 Scores of disasters damages and health outcomes of 63 provinces/cities in graph .36 Graph 13 Disasters damages and health outcomes map .37 Graph 14 Heat wave map 2009 48 Graph 15 Cold wave map 2009 48 Graph 16 Percentage of poor households map 2008 .49 Graph 17 Percentage of households using clean water 2009 50 Graph 18 Percentage of households having hygienic latrines 2009 .51 Graph 19 Figure of percentage of poor households 2008 52 Graph 20 Figure of percentage of households using clean water 2009 52 Graph 21 Figure of percentage of households having hygienic latrines 2009 52 vi Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam Final Report Abbreviations CC Climate change HAC Health adaptive capacity IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCRPH Research Center for Rural Population and Health UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VIHEMA Vietnam Health Environment Management Agency WHO World Health Organization Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam vii Final Report Acknowledgement The Research Center for Rural Population and Health would like to express our sincere thanks to the VIHEMA – MOH, WHO’s office in Vietnam for their technical and financial support in Mapping out vulnerability areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate change in Vietnam We would also like to thank the agencies and departments directly under MOH, General Statistics Office, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Departments of Health and Preventive Medicine Centers in 63 cities/provinces for their enthusiastic cooperation in data collection process Our deep appreciations go to the experts and researchers for their critical and constructive comments and enthusiastic contributions in this activity Assoc Prof., Trinh Huu Vach, PhD Director of Research Center for Rural Population and Health viii Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam Final Report Introduction Nowadays, climate change (CC) is widely known as global warming Climate stimuli are refered to changes in climate in a long period of time, including the increase in temperature, changes in rainfall and the rise of extreme weather phenomena such as storm, flood, drought and ice melt in the polars and on mountains, together with sea level rise CC has threatened the human life Vietnam is one of the most affected countries by CC [32] During the last 30 years, sea level in Vietnam has increased 5cm As predicted, the sea level will rise 9cm by 2010, 33cm by 2050, 45cm by 2070 and 1m by 2100 [6] In addition, Vietnam will suffer the growing impact of natural disasters caused by CC, especially storms and floods which are increasing in frequency and intensity There has been a limited number of studies on CC in Vietnam Some studies and assessments of CC impacts and adaptation were conducted, especially in flooding areas However, applying of mapping to assess vulnerability due to CC health impacts of CC is still new To provide policy makers in health sector an intuitive view on how the health problems manifest in different provinces throught out the countries, in order to make priorities and appropriate intervention Research Center for Population and Health (RCRPH) collaborated with Vietnam Health Environment Management (VIHEMA) under the support of World Health Organization (WHO) has been conducting an activity titled “Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to the impacts of climate change in Vietnam”, which held from May to December 2010 This activity was implemented towards two objectives, which are (1) Initially design a data set of basic climate and health indicators related to CC impacts in 63 provinces/cities of Vietnam, (2) Map vulnerable areas and communities due to health impacts of CC in Vietnam and (3) propose recommendations following activities for better assessments on health impacts of CC in the future Overview on climate change Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam Final Report According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), CC is defined as “changes in climate which directly or indirectly caused by human activities, to change the atmosphere in a period of time, besides natural climatic changes.” [42] There were two viewpoints on the causes of global warming The first opinion indicated that the temperature increase is caused by the greenhouse effect, more emphasis on the cyclic warming of the Earth due to endogenous activities The other opinion that human activities causing the increased the concentration of CO2 and the other gases, creating greenhouse effect which agreed by the majority of scientists This is almost the absolute cause of CC and thereby cause sea level rise [26] The increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warms the Earth’s surface During the period 1996–2005, Earth's surface temperature increased by 0.74°C The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that CO2 emissions increased times and temperatures will rise 2- 6oC by 2100 compared with the previous period of industrialization [26] According to the latest report of IPCC in 2007, in the lower scenario, the average global temperature will able to rise about 1.8oC (1.1 – 2.9oC), in the higher scenario that would be 4oC (2.4 to 6.4°C) [ 30] Based on some possible scenarios, the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC showed the impacts of sea level rise that was increase in coastal erosion, surges caused by storms and floods, extending coastal flooding areas, and changes in the quality of surface water and groundwater The report also mentioned the loss of lands and important components of coastal ecosystem, the increasing risks of flooding towarding loss of resources and cultural values, impacts on agriculture, tourism, transportation, etc Regarding the impacts on ecosystems, IPCC reported that approximately 20- 30% of plants and animals species were at risk of extinction, if Earth temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.5°C compared wi th the average of 20 years of the late 20th century [11] CC creates the ecological crisis in the affected areas, causing many native species in degraded and even in disappearance [11] In agriculture, due to water shortages and raging heat wave, the grains and corn yield will be reduced by 30% in Asia and Africa countries [35] CC not only influenced on the social security of a country, but also among Mapping out vulnerable areas and population due to adverse health impacts of climate hange in Vietnam