Ebok Advances in credit risk modelling and corporate bankruptcy prediction provides a thorough compendium of the different modelling approaches available in the field, including several new techniques that extend the horizons of future research and practice. This practical and empiricallybased approach makes the book an ideal resource for all those concerned with credit risk and corporate bankruptcy, including academics, practitioners and... Đề tài Hoàn thiện công tác quản trị nhân sự tại Công ty TNHH Mộc Khải Tuyên được nghiên cứu nhằm giúp công ty TNHH Mộc Khải Tuyên làm rõ được thực trạng công tác quản trị nhân sự trong công ty như thế nào từ đó đề ra các giải pháp giúp công ty hoàn thiện công tác quản trị nhân sự tốt hơn trong thời gian tới.
cz w0 a r1 a2 5m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld xw 6z kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 0p e1 hm bo jg bm q2 3q 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz 4u ib aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc gq 4m e ojr frc 9a y pp io7 o 5ư j4 ae 2f n4 2t 1d cm nt rq u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 INVESTORS fiư m WHAT 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 REALLY WANT 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 Discover What Drives Investor Behavior and Make Smarter Financial Decisions 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie M E I R S TAT M A N u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw Copyright © 2011 by Meir Statman All rights reserved Except as permitted under the United States Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp ISBN: 978-0-07-174166-8 at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 s4 ch MHID: 0-07-174166-6 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 The material in this eBook also appears in the print version of this title: ISBN: 978-0-07-174165-1, MHID: 0-07-174165-8 n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 All trademarks are trademarks of their respective owners Rather than put a trademark symbol after every occurrence of a trademarked name, we use names in an editorial fashion only, and to the benefit of the trademark owner, with no intention of infringement of the trademark Where such designations appear in this book, they have been printed with initial caps g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 n5 ưy McGraw-Hill eBooks are available at special quantity discounts to use as premiums and sales promotions, 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eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg TERMS OF USE 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d 19 l7 This is a copyrighted work and The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc (“McGrawHill”) and its licensors reserve all rights in and to the work Use of this work is subject to these terms Except as permitted under the Copyright Act of 1976 and the right to store and retrieve one copy of the work, you may not decompile, disassemble, reverse engineer, reproduce, modify, create derivative works based upon, transmit, distribute, disseminate, sell, publish or sublicense the work or any part of it without McGraw-Hill’s prior consent You may use the work for your own noncommercial and personal use; any other use of the work is strictly prohibited Your right to use the work may be terminated if you fail to comply with these terms 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư THE WORK IS PROVIDED “AS IS.” McGRAW-HILL AND ITS LICENSORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, ADEQUACY OR COMPLETENESS OF OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THE WORK, INCLUDING ANY INFORMATION THAT CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE WORK VIA HYPERLINK OR OTHERWISE, AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIM ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE McGraw-Hill and its licensors not warrant or guarantee that the functions contained in the work will meet your requirements or that its operation will be uninterrupted or error free Neither McGraw-Hill nor its licensors shall be liable to you or anyone else for any inaccuracy, error or omission, regardless of cause, in the work or for any damages resulting therefrom McGraw-Hill has no responsibility for the content of any information accessed through the work Under no circumstances shall McGraw-Hill and/or its licensors be liable for any indirect, incidental, special, punitive, consequential or similar damages that result from the use of or inability to use the work, even if any of them has been advised of the possibility of such damages This limitation of liability shall apply to any claim or cause whatsoever whether such claim or cause arises in contract, tort or otherwise ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 To the memory pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 of my beloved parents, 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 Tova and Mordechai Statman ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 This page intentionally left blank gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep e5 m d Contents 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k z6 3j INTRODUCTION: What We Want s4 ch ix 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt i17 8j i 9o We want more than high profits from our investments We want to be number and beat the market We want to nurture hope for riches and banish fear of poverty We want to feel the pride of profits and avoid the regret of losses We want the sophistication of hedge funds and the virtue of socially responsible funds And we want to leave a legacy for our children n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn o8 xb CHAPTER 1: We Want Profits Higher than Risks 0r 2h 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m t7 ke Investments with profits equal to their risks are as easy to find as good lunches at fair prices But we want free lunches, not fair ones, and we are always searching for investments with profits higher than risks bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg tn w5 CHAPTER 2: We Have Thoughts, Some Erroneous 22 ql 17 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv Cognitive errors mislead us into thinking that investments with profits higher than risks are easy to find Hindsight errors are one example, misleading us into thinking that we have seen investment winners in foresight when, in truth, we have seen them only in hindsight zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h jle CHAPTER 3: We Have Emotions, Some Misleading p0 f yu jsc 37 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo Emotions, like cognitive errors, draw us into promises of profits higher than risks Exuberance highlights profits and obscures risks; fear highlights risks and obscures profits; and unrealistic optimism exaggerates our investment skills and chances y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu ts 5d b5 va b9 jh 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 55 8s i dh v l0b lie CHAPTER 4: We Want to Play, and Win u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 gm 8c The game of finding investments with profits higher than risks is tempting, even when we know that it is difficult to win Playing the game makes us feel alive, in the groove, in control, and in the flow And winning is exhilarating yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad v vi Contents z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m CHAPTER 5: We Join Herds and Inflate Bubbles 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 67 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so We stampede into investments in exuberance and stampede out in fear We inflate bubbles and deflate them Our herding instinct also opens the door to frauds, where early fools pull in late fools, and all turn into losers q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 CHAPTER 6: We Want Self-Control and Mental Accounts 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 81 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 67 pt We not spend dollars from “hard-earned” mental accounts as easily as we spend dollars won in lotteries Mental accounting facilitates self-control, stopping us from buying a shiny new car today when we need the money for retirement tomorrow 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc CHAPTER 7: We Want to Save for Tomorrow and Spend It Today ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h xlj w 93 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x We try to strike a balance between saving too little and saving too much Mental accounting helps us distinguish what we are permitted to spend from what we must save Self-control helps us manage our conflicting desires to spend and save 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 bx i1 CHAPTER 8: We Want Hope for Riches and Freedom from the Fear of Poverty 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln x su 7li bt 107 g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh Investors who hate risk buy insurance policies, while investors who love risk buy lottery tickets Yet most of us buy both, just as we buy both safe bonds and risky stocks We are motivated by our twin desires of hope for riches and freedom from the fear of poverty ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 119 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 CHAPTER 9: We Have Similar Wants and Different Ones 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie Some investors are passionate about hope, while others care more about freedom from fear Our personalities, life experiences, and cultures weigh on the balance we strike between hope and freedom from fear u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad Contents vii z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m CHAPTER 10: We Want to Face No Losses 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 133 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so Profits bring pride while losses inflict regret Realizing losses is especially painful because we give up hope of recouping our losses So we realize gains quickly and procrastinate in the realization of losses q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 CHAPTER 11: We Want to Pay No Taxes 7w xu 151 py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 Some investors greet taxes with acceptance or resignation Some feel smart and savvy when they avoid taxes Some are angry that taxes are wasted by politicians And some are willing to forego $5,000 in profits to avoid paying $4,000 in taxes yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm CHAPTER 12: We Want High Status and Proper Respect ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc wư ge 161 u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt Hedge funds open their doors only to the rich, making it easy to brag about riches without appearing to brag Yet wealth does not always bring respect Women investors resented disrespect a century ago, and they resent condescending attitudes today u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh l5u d CHAPTER 13: We Want to Stay True to Our Values sd 2p 177 k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky uu l5 Some socially responsible investors are willing to sacrifice investment profits for human rights and others are willing to sacrifice profits for a clean environment Values extend beyond social responsibility to religion, ideology, patriotism, and philanthropy vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư 195 ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg CHAPTER 14: We Want Fairness 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t We want to play on level playing fields in sports, investments, and every other field We boycott stores that treat their employees unfairly, protest unfair investment practices, and forego profits to avoid money managers whose fairness we suspect 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad Contents viii z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 7w xu py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 223 8v 1p 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 237 kd ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 275 m kh INDEX 243 NOTES 209 CHAPTER 15: We Want to Invest in Our Children and Families We prod our children to well in school and we save for their college expenses Middle-class parents worry that they might not have enough for their children’s education Rich parents worry that their children would feel entitled to spend what they not earn CHAPTER 16: We Want Education, Advice, and Protection We are increasingly responsible for our financial futures We seek information, protection, and advice from financial advisors, the Internet, the government, and other investors Some advice is good and some is bad Some sticks with us and some washes away CONCLUSION: What We Have Some trade investments because they have a true advantage over other traders Others trade investments because cognitive errors mislead them Yet others trade because they want to enjoy the thrill of trading Still, it is important to distinguish truth from cognitive errors and cognitive errors from wants And it is important to remember that investments are about life beyond money ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu 5d ts va b5 jh b9 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad z5 w0 a r1 a2 m 1n vw i6 kw 1x ư1 fv 9b co ij 3u 9u 9p ep d e5 m I N T R O D U C T I O N 80 bp 3u qs xs 2w r1 z8 dk 3o jn c1 re m rt hd qm m x1 h7 What We Want bk 0a fiư m en w0 tvs dj s h3 so q9 h vtd og sp at d7 s3 sq rv ju y1 go m rz z ac ah f9 i8k 3j z6 ch s4 19 a fp l7t 02 nm vh 2i ư2 hx l4 n0 cy jư dx z5 zu p2 g3 ưt 8j i 9o i17 n4 o0 xu A 7w t a dinner party some years ago, a fellow guest, an engineer who had learned that I am a professor of finance, wanted to know where he can buy Japanese yen “Why you want to buy Japanese yen,” I asked “Because its value is sure to zoom past the American dollar,” he said, and proceeded to list the American budget deficit, its trade deficit, and other indicators of the advantage of the Japanese yen over the American dollar I wanted to tell my fellow guest quickly and gently that while his thinking is quite normal, it is not very smart “Buying and selling Japanese yen, American stocks, French bonds, and all other investments,” I said, “is not like playing tennis against a practice wall, where you can watch the ball hit the wall and place yourself at just the right spot to hit it back when it bounces It is like playing tennis against an opponent you’ve never met before Are you faster than your opponent? Will your opponent fool you by pretending to hit the ball to the left side, only to hit it to the right?” “Think for a moment,” I said to my fellow guest “You are on one side of the net, thinking that the yen will go up Your opponent is on the other side, thinking that it will go down One of you must be the slow one Have you considered the possibility that the yen seller might be Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, or another of many traders in the yen market who have offices in both Tokyo and New York and know more about both the Japanese and American economies than you can learn from your morning’s Wall Street Journal?” Yet there is more to investing and tennis than faulty thinking My fellow guest wanted to make money on his yen trade, but he also wanted to feel the thrill of winning when the yen zooms He wanted to express himself as a player in financial markets, not one who stands at the market’s sideline And he wanted to be a member of the investing community, the community of people who observe financial markets, trade in them, and share their experiences with one another This book is about what we want from our investments It is about how we think about our investments, how we feel about them, and how py c lb cfc 9e 0t lr 1q l1 ou 8d 48 sh co l1 k dh 4j2 ex 47 yv ư5 yf z8 g9 eư 7i i vz jzc s7 65 49 v8 pt 67 61 xn ex t1 8v 1p 9h dv j 2w sl0 87 kq ro po r3 7s 86 ds 32 a5 eu vy 8i b vh m 6x f6 ek n2 nf q0 hy 21 ge 57 ưy n5 0j 2n q ưa im m bn xb o8 2h 0r 9t 8r qy p m 7t fm ww p8 1c lm ư7 of 24 ld 6z xw kh 6m ke t7 bi a6 3l pc ge wư u6 u0 ylư v1 fl 0n wr l5 ưf yx 8h w xlj 7j h6 ay dq 3i ok 5ư ưt u7 g4 r1 xu ei kd 3y db w3 60 ưs om 94 2x 1f 62 ưn 7t 9b 9n p6 u3 fx 0v ol 5t d5 il 81 qg w5 tn ql 22 4m jh d m bk b4 45 5x 37 gs hv d la4 8v 3p e7 dx zo 22 eh hm a4 wv zư bh 70 ji zo lh 6t dl fn a2 wl vg 7i rh d l5u 2p sd k0 yr sư 7d l7 19 4i rv ge 56 i1 bx 2e 34 u6 ah sd b4 ci ky l5 uu vf or wr ln bt x su 7li g3 kc m m w0 sy ss 1z xz 7c wy ob 5j eo pn lc 08 nz cw zx ib ch uh ff f0 ak 7h p0 f yu jsc jle 6o w2 gd br 1f 6y up ưl g7 j v4 jk0 ho e3 fo 09 0o oo y7 gc 9lj e6 vs i0 t e6 iz5 m kh ty z 5q cv bm ce hi hn vư ir rz h4 ư1 ob q4 fb d0 pv hd 8k lg 2d 1k 0ư 4w hb 3k s9 m qc 2t 0h d6 1y s0 fm ss v2 q2 h1 16 ưa sg yq xl fk 33 l6 0q 7k xư hu ts 5d b5 va b9 jh 1n b7 e1 0p hm bo bm jg 3q q2 8s i dh v l0b lie u3 52 2f b5 st 9o td g2 8c gm yy qe u5 g4 n4 ed 0iư f1 yz ib 4u aư 4u bt bi ild t6 pc 9a y pp gq 4m e ojr frc o 5ư io7 j4 ae 2f n4 2t cm 1d rq nt u zt1 sm kv ưf lh br ưr zo 5t g aip y5 wu nz bs 3f 88 d6 yg a6 zm 5ia ad ix