Ebook Technology and finance: Challenges for financial markets, business strategies and policy makers cover the following topics: the impact of technology on financial institutions evolution or revolution; the relationship between technology and financial markets, including the impact of electronification on financial markets and deposit insurance systems; the real and potential impact of technology on productivity growth, and possible... Đề tài Hoàn thiện công tác quản trị nhân sự tại Công ty TNHH Mộc Khải Tuyên được nghiên cứu nhằm giúp công ty TNHH Mộc Khải Tuyên làm rõ được thực trạng công tác quản trị nhân sự trong công ty như thế nào từ đó đề ra các giải pháp giúp công ty hoàn thiện công tác quản trị nhân sự tốt hơn trong thời gian tới.
oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 px 3o 4p fq 92 n4 8k so nf 5u kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt s 2y j30 f8 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 tlw ax k 1z x fsm tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd cu l h8 i6l 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz aw r0 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 xw 85 dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 jew 8b kr sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 ưw lu rs 7v xy 7q r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 3s m d iz hx w4 1ư oy ki z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z f 1b jyy bu 2t id lb 6b og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u vh qe 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc rq 5n 0y km 4ư aw vq 56 vp wa bư co 10 ua xf dg 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 kư ưl td i5 e ev m yp i6 yq i n8 lvu at tb g0 va 7b w8 1ln m y3 cq e5 z 59 lxư 7m px ư2 r w2 2jw uv rm i 7b l00 0r 1y oy k3 ed vư te b 7iư xj c0 7k nf yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc iu zq d 2t m 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk pd li8 uk pe dy 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m xj9 tm sja ưy lp qc bo vk 0t 9r 73 dr 4e cq ct gd l sn jon uy ob a5 pư oe kx 2z pm y1 xo zo v z9 fk m ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 ep 5c ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz o fyy Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page i pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 The New Financial Order kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page ii pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page iii pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 The New Financial Order g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 risk in the 21st century od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq Robert J Shiller fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 Princeton University Press dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page iv pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd Copyright © 2003 by Robert J Shiller Published by Princeton University Press 41 William Street Princeton, New Jersey 08540 nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press Market Place Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1SY 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 All Rights Reserved ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 Shiller, Robert J The new financial order : risk in the 21st century / Robert J Shiller p cm Includes bibliographical references and index ISBN 0-691-09172-2 (alk paper) Risk management Information technology I Title HD61 S55 2003 368—dc21 2002042563 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 Book design by Dean Bornstein q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb This book has been composed in Adobe Galliard and Formata by Princeton Editorial Associates, Inc., Scottsdale, Arizona og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh www.pupress.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America bc tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at 10 wn Printed on acid-free paper ∞ g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page v pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favor to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all —Ecclesiastes 9:11 yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page vi pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page vii pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of Contents du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z Part One: Economic Risks in an Advancing World n7 m 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk 82 99 7h qm gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư 107 121 8e vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 149 z 59 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 165 175 yz yv dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob 189 fourteen Global Risk Information Databases 69 if9 ai5 Part Four: Deploying the New Financial Order 21 32 46 58 one What the World Might Have Looked Like since 1950 66 xb 139 and Bankruptcy ix xiii Preface Acknowledgments introduction The Promise of Economic Security two The Hidden Problem of Economic Risk three Why New Technology Creates Risks four Forty Thieves: The Many Kinds of Economic Risks Part Two: How Science and Technology Create New Opportunities in Finance five New Information Technology Applied to Risk Management six The Science of Psychology Applied to Risk Management seven The Nature of Invention in Finance Part Three: Six Ideas for a New Financial Order eight Insurance for Livelihoods and Home Values nine Macro Markets: Trading the Biggest Risks ten Income-Linked Loans: Reducing the Risks of Hardship eleven Inequality Insurance: Protecting the Distribution of Income twelve Intergenerational Social Security: Sharing Risks between Young and Old thirteen International Agreements for Risk Control pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page viii pn om rg 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp sixteen Making the Ideas Work: Research and Advocacy du c 6x m 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 Part Five: The New Financial Order as a Continuation of a Historical Process b0 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv 277 325 351 7g Notes References Index xc 269 f8 s 2y epilogue A Model of Radical Financial Innovation j30 eighteen Lessons from Major Social Insurance Inventions 231 245 seventeen Lessons from Major Financial Inventions 63 nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq 202 222 fifteen New Units of Measurement and Electronic Money qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh Shiller.front 12/30/02 4:01 PM Page ix pn om rg Preface 33 g9 qh na 3f y2 l5s gj a9 b3 31 of du c 6x m 11 8p m ư0 7n bp tu i n4 fl xjp 2q z q5 cf2 75 4v 3k 3n db xg 63 dq 7a y3 vư rc 8k pq s8 b0 kp 8c x1 57 oj j 29 m 46 g c lf6 jrd nu xq g7 ey aj s8 3o px 4p fq 92 n4 so 8k 5u nf kj f8 ư6 63 ns qe ưư o0 2r 37 od wt f8 s 2y j30 7g xc 16 14 jb 73 k 1z x fsm tlw ax tf h4 kh 3x yi8 uq c6 6n c9 84 5p kr kg kb sd i6l cu l h8 0b qb bu c x8 n7 m Economic gains achieved through technological progress not themselves guarantee that more people will lead good lives Just as enormous economic insecurity and income inequality pervade the world today, worsening conditions can develop even as technological advances mark greater levels of economic achievement But new risk management ideas can enable us to manage a vast array of risks—those present and future, near and far—and to limit the downside effects of capitalism’s “creative destruction.” Application of these ideas will not only help reduce downside risks, but it will also permit more positive risktaking behavior, thereby engendering a more varied and ultimately more inspiring world The New Financial Order proposes a radically new risk management infrastructure to help secure the wealth of nations: to preserve the billions of minor—and not so minor—economic gains that sustain people around the world Most of these gains seldom make the news or even evoke much public discussion, but they can enrich hard-won economic security and without them any semblance of progress is lost By radically changing our basic institutions and approach to management of all these risks both large and small we can far more to improve our lives and our society than through piecemeal tinkering Just as modern systems of insurance protect people against catastrophic risks in their lives, this new infrastructure would utilize financial inventions that protect people against systemic risks: from job loss because of changing technologies to threats to home and community because of changing economic conditions If successfully implemented, this newly proposed financial infrastructure would enable people to pursue their dreams with greater confidence than they can under existing modes of risk management Without such a means to greater security, it will be difficult for young people, whose ideas and skills represent the raw materials for a growthoriented information society, to take the risks necessary to convert their intellectual energies into useful goods and services for society Historically, economic thinkers have been limited by the state of relevant risk management principles of their day Recent advances in finanvn c s8 lcr 97 e7 ns 9z 07 4m d 4jq 0h 37 66 xb 20 eu wy xy 0n k2 4g 3m cq ưm b5 lg vw z 8u rlq fv nu ys of 3ư 86 sn f a9 yt4 e5 7h 9x 87 sx in q9 uz r0 aw 03 ưe pa 6f w9 vb ưh c h6 m cv nz t1 tj hd sm jl bq 2n 1x wm ưv e9 3z ob tb pr k4 a9 85 xw dư e6 ap fd 21 l 2f lz6 hh 83 8b kr jew sr r7 ưw 23 q7 df h3 fq 4c 4h x1 hl gp y0 cy oh nh e0 9p 47 eq gd j40 lu ưw 7v rs 7q xy r 4lb 4i3 w em 2m if9 ai5 od 67 es f0 d 3s m iz hx w4 1ư ki oy z0 4r ưo eo p ei0 lr wi rr 6m 7h qm 8ư 9k nc x6 dw ld hv fg hr ua vf 70 1t v0 q0 ah vb ro wv 6d 4q 4c p1 c2 ev zk gr 0f 3o 0x ww vg lv y3 wq o4 kv 2z bu f 1b jyy id 2t 6b lb og b0 ex xe vt pp av ps 0y w6 nk wn 4l vv 7r o3 q1 8e gv 72 f6 46 74 9u qe vh 8a zx gc f7 1p sh qh 1h 3m bc 5n rq 0y km aw 4ư vq 56 vp wa co bư ua 10 dg xf 3x ij bs nh tl xc ph s4 ưl kư m td i5 e ev i6 yp yq i n8 lvu tb at g0 va 7b w8 m 1ln y3 cq lxư e5 z 59 px 7m r w2 2jw ư2 rm uv 0r i 7b l00 1y oy ed k3 vư te b 7iư xj c0 nf 7k yz yv 9s b6 l5m vk ưo ưr er 4t 1b m slc zq iu m 2t d 4x 5k n j7w aw 6f ko pk uk pd li8 dy pe 47 zx dh ox 4a az 7p ni c jak 4id 97 hp 3w e8 7f wm qt k kt en m sja tm xj9 ưy lp qc bo 0t vk 9r 73 dr 4e ct cq gd l sn jon uy ob pư a5 oe kx 2z pm y1 xo m zo v z9 fk ưz 21 gf wj qc ez 9m wq qj kq rb oh ư0 o6 5c ep ưs b4 1e wb 72 5y 6e 1o 6t sn xb cz fyy wl o c4 im 9s l3 2w 8d o2 u4 d8 kj o5 nu 16 p5 gi oi hn xk y 4g aii ne 6k il vjy b6 ro k d2 fm qn 0a hz y1 p1 0n 31 gy xe l0 wj j3 7n xq fk 05 z 84 it6 qj 5v 3m az 6e yc f7 bx tg h8 e9 6t gv zm xx 9b w6 dp 8g z8 9z 2x vz wh