(Tiểu luận) group assignmentsecurities analysis and investment of duc giang chemicalgroup (dgc)

BANKING ACADEMY FACULTY OF FINANCE GROUP ASSIGNMENT SECURITIES ANALYSIS AND INVESTMENT OF DUC GIANG CHEMICAL GROUP (DGC) Lecturer: Tran Anh Tuan Students: Dao Phuong Anh Bui Ngoc Anh Nguyen Thi Ha Nguyen Thi Mai Hoa Nguyen Hai Yen ii Hanoi, August 2023 i TABLE OF CONTENTS PART ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMY, INDUSTRY, AND BUSINESS MODEL OF THE FIRM .1 Macro-environmental analysis (use PEST model) 1.1 Political 1.2 Economic 1.3 Social 1.4 Technological Industry analysis (use Forces model of Michael Porter) .3 2.1 Level of competition from existing competitors in the industry 2.2 Evaluate Future Competitors 2.3 Competitive pressure from customers 2.4 Pressure analysis from suppliers 2.5 Pressure from substitute products Business Model and Business Strategy analysis 3.1 Analyze the business model of DGC P4 according to the SWOT model .4 3.1.1 Strengths 3.1.2 Weaknesses 3.1.3 Opportunities 3.1.4 Threatens 3.2 Analysis of business strategy of DGC 2023 PART FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS Solvency ratio Liquidity ratio .8 ii Activity ratio Profitability ratio 4.1 Net profit margin 4.2 Gross profit margin 10 4.3 ROA vs ROE 10 PART VALUATION (USING THE RELATIVE VALUATION METHOD) 12 Index P/B 12 EV/EBITDA .13 Index P/E 14 Index P/S 15 PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (USING MA, MACD, RSI) 16 PART THE MAIN RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPANY ARE 19 Economic recession 19 M&A 19 Risks on tax policy .20 Exchange rate risk 20 PART CONCLUSION 21 REFERENCE MATERIALS 22 PART ANALYSIS OF THE MACROECONOMY, INDUSTRY, AND BUSINESS MODEL OF THE FIRM Macro-environmental analysis (use PEST model) 1.1 - Political After controlling the Covid-19 epidemic in 2021, China quickly restored production to boost the economy, leading to a sudden increase in power consumption at factories Rising thermal coal prices, prolonged hot weather and falling hydropower output have left China facing severe power shortages and rotating power cuts across the country - The Chinese government has scaled back production in power-intensive industrial sectors such as refining, petrochemicals and metallurgy; Energy shortages and widespread power outages have disrupted factories and factories And to prepare for the 2022 Beijing Olympics, China strongly restricts industries that affect the environment, including yellow phosphorus chemicals - China - the world's largest exporter of Yellow Phosphorus with production reaching 90 million tonnes in 2020 - restricts the export of fertilizers and related chemicals such as yellow phosphorus to ensure domestic supply and food security real, pushing up the price of Yellow Phosphorus on the world market; The price of yellow phosphorus in the Vietnamese market also increased rapidly - The outbreak and prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine will directly affect the world supply of fertilizers and phosphorus, as Russia is one of the leading producing and exporting countries In 2020, Russia accounted for 5.8% of global phosphorus production with 13 million tons Russia and the West are imposing trade sanctions on each other over the war with Ukraine , leading to yellow phosphorus becoming more scarce, pushing up the price of yellow phosphorus - DGC's revenue and profit is mainly from semi-finished products (mainly yellow phosphorus and acids), accounting for more than 99% of revenue; DGC's export revenue also accounted for a large proportion (≈70-80% of total revenue), which helped DGC record outstanding business results compared to previous years As a result, phosphorus prices skyrocketed and export revenue increased dramatically for DGC ⇒ DGC is one of the largest exporters of yellow phosphorus in Vietnam and in the world 1.2  Economic The total annual output of Vietnam's chemical industry accounts for about 10-11% of the total GDP of the industry, the labor force accounts for nearly 10% and has a high labor productivity of 1.36 times the average labor productivity industry due to a relatively high degree of automation Among the 10 largest industries in the country according to the level sub-sector, the chemical industry is ranked in the third group, accounting for 2-5% of the GDP of the whole industry  Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Le Van Thanh signed Decision No 726/QD-TTg approving the Strategy for the development of Vietnam's chemical industry to 2030 The strategy clearly states that the development of Vietnam's chemical industry will follow the direction is an important and modern foundation industry with a relatively complete industry structure including 10 sub-sectors  The whole country's economy is growing steadily, macro-indicators continue to be stable, achieving and exceeding all socio-economic development targets Besides, Vietnam also benefits from the effective implementation of signed bilateral and multilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs); The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) officially came into effect, contributing to expanding market scope and increasing investment to open up the country expand domestic production, promote export growth Document continues below Discover more Financial Report from: Analysis FIN68A Học viện Ngân hàng 128 documents Go to course Analysis of Financial 30 Report of SABECO… Financial Report… 100% (22) CÂU HỎI ƠN TẬP 11 MƠN KINH TẾ Chính… Financial Report… 91% (66) Tử điển F3 ACCA 85 36 từ điển mơn F3 Financial Report… 100% (4) Phân tích báo cáo tài doanh nghiệp… Financial Report… 100% (2) [123doc] - no-cong23 va-tang-truong-… Financial Report… 100% (2) bt chương hợp 1.3 Social đồng kỳ hạn  First, Vietnam still maintains typical cultural values and socialFinancial factors, in addition, with 100% (2) Report… the process of deep integration with the world, Vietnam welcomes the interference of cultures world The advantage of Vietnam is that we are in the golden population period, the average life expectancy is maintained at a higher level than the world average, the replacement fertility rate is firmly maintained  Along with the industrialization and modernization of the country, the chemical industry in Vietnam has made significant changes Product types and structure are increasingly diversified, basically meeting domestic demand in a number of fields (fertilizers, plant protection drugs, tires, common paints, cleaning products) and supply supplying input materials to many other industries ⇒ The chemical industry is one of the industries with high demand in the world and in Vietnam, DGC absolutely has an abundant supply to meet the demand in the world, thereby contributing to the development of society in the country 1.4 - Technological Vietnam has enterprises engaged in the production and trading of Yellow Phosphorus, mainly concentrated in Lao Cai province After the merger of Duc Giang Lao Cai in 2017, DGC became the largest producer of Yellow Phosphorus in the country with a total capacity of 72 thousand tons per year, accounting for 46% of the total capacity of P4 production plants domestic Currently, the company has exploited 86% of the total capacity of two P4 production plants DGC is one of the leading enterprises in Apatite ore extraction technology in Lao Cai - Although grade II ores are difficult to collect by physical methods (in which apatite, dolomite and calcite minerals have similar properties), DGC's technology allows the use of class II apatite ore (with P2O5 content only from 18-25%) and anthracite coal (lower carbon content) to produce Yellow Phosphorus, creating a cost advantage as Class II ores and anthracite coals are priced significantly lower than Grade I ores and coke Old technologies are forced to use Industry analysis (use Forces model of Michael Porter) 2.1 Level of competition from existing competitors in the industry In the field of chemicals, some major chemical companies and brands in Vietnam, especially in the North, must include Vietnam Chemical Corporation (Vinachem), Viet Tri Chemical Joint Stock Company (Vitrichem) Lam Thao Super Phosphate and Chemical Joint Stock Company These are companies with foundation and long experience in the arena, they are also formidable competitors of Duc Giang Chemical Group Joint Stock Company 2.2 Evaluate Future Competitors In the chemical industry there are a number of factors that prevent new brands from entering The first is that developing a brand in a short time is not possible The next active product that comes out requires a large investment account To start entering the market, brand addresses can start on a smaller scale However, the amount of investment costs for marketing and recruiting quality workers is also very high Second, in addition to the difficulty of investment costs, competitors need to calculate the time to build customer loyalty to their brand Third, the chemical industry requires a lot of strict regulations on labor safety and environmental safety, so to participate in the market, it is necessary to invest quite a lot in this cost 2.3 Competitive pressure from customers For the chemical industry market, the customer factor does not put much pressure on manufacturers, because consumers are not too price sensitive for products such as dishwashing liquid, detergent, etc laundry detergent, these are necessary products in daily household activities, so customers always want to give priority to quality over price However, if there is a case where customers associate with each other to get a good price or create a shopping trend, in that case they have the right to choose which supplier is better, so the suppliers (including the Duc Giang Chemical Group Joint Stock Company) must compete with each other 2.4 Pressure analysis from suppliers The pressure from suppliers on Duc Giang Chemical Group Joint Stock Company is not great because most of the production stages of the company are proactive, only a small part relies on input material suppliers, so It can be said that the company has the ability to self-manage and control this pressure quite effectively 2.5 Pressure from substitute products For chemical products such as fertilizers, pesticides, detergents, dishwashing liquid, etc., there are quite a few products that can be replaced However, these alternative products not fully guarantee the benefits and convenience of this available chemical product Therefore, the pressure from substitute products is not ominous for Duc Giang Chemical Group Joint Stock Company Business Model and Business Strategy analysis 3.1 Analyze the business model of DGC P4 according to the SWOT model 3.1.1 Strengths - DGC is the industry leader with a complete value chain from input materials, has the largest production capacity of yellow phosphorus (P4) in the country with a capacity of 60,000 tons/year (maximum 72,000 tons/year when sales are completed) can produce - In addition, DGC also has the advantage of input materials for the production of P4 which is apatite ore with high purity when Field 25 (Apatite ore) has been put into during low electricity load times of the day) operation since March 2021, contributing to DGC's autonomy 40% of the cost of ore, equivalent to 15% of the cost of capital, thereby boosting the profit margin of the enterprise 3.1.2 Weaknesses - The recent sharp decline in the price of yellow phosphorus has had a significant impact on corporate income, thereby partly putting pressure on the promotion of production development P4 - Duc Giang Nghi Son chemical complex is behind schedule, reducing P4 output also causing stagnation in the supply chain of enterprises 3.1.3 - Opportunities Chemical industry is a profession with high barriers to entry With the characteristics of the chemical industry, new competitors face great barriers when entering the industry due to difficult licensing procedures due to environmental risks, along with a very large initial investment - As for yellow phosphorus products, it is almost impossible to build/expand a mining plant in Vietnam, so companies in the industry are almost not subject to competition from new entrants - DGC is in the period of enjoying corporate income tax from 2018-2030 The corporate income tax rate at the company is only about 5% of pre-tax profit - The world price of yellow phosphorus is having a strong recovery since February 2022 and is expected to remain high in the next period 10 Overall, there was slight growth at the beginning of the period (2019-2020), followed by explosive growth when reaching 26.32% (2021) and 41.80% (2022) This shows the effectiveness of the company's operations when it can generate more profit from each revenue dollar 4.2 Gross profit margin There was slight growth in the 4-year cycle, specifically at 19.77%, 23.72%, 33.32%, and 46.73% This is considered a fairly positive sign during the COVID-19 pandemic period, reflecting the level of profit and efficiency in controlling GDC's costs 4.3 ROA vs ROE 11  Looking at the chart, we can see that both indicators have a consistent upward trend in the 4-year cycle (2019-2022)  In 2019, ROA was at 12.62%, while ROE was at 16.56% Both of these indicators are related to profit, indicating that the company is operating at a stable level  From 2019-2020, both ROA and ROE had a slight upward trend since this was the critical stage of the COVID-19 pandemic Specifically, in 2020, ROA reached 17.42% and ROE reached 23.31% (almost double that of 2019)  Although 2021 was a period of explosive growth for the COVID-19 pandemic, the indicators were beyond expectations when ROA reached 31.04% and ROE reached 39.70% The profits generated from investment capital doubled compared to the same period last year, and the higher the ROA, the better the company's financial situation  In 2022, both ROA and ROE experienced explosive growth, both reaching approximately below 50% (ROA - 47.61%; ROE - 55.72%) For the 4-year period from 2019-2022, the only indicator that exceeded 50% is ROA (2022), which means that the ability to generate profit on each shareholder capital has increased significantly 12 PART VALUATION (USING THE RELATIVE VALUATION METHOD) Index P/B - Price-to-Book ratio (P/B) is the ratio of a stock's market price to its own book value This ratio shows how many times the value of each share is currently the net worth of the business - Formula to calculate P/B ratio: - As at 28/07/2023, closing price of DGC stock: 72,600 VND, Book value: 30,577 VND, P/B ratio is equal to 3.57 - This means that DGC shares are sold for 3.57 times more than their book value as at 28/07/2023 and to own DGC shares, investors acceptreceived 3.57 times the book value - DGC index is high, indicatingthat the market is expecting about the business prospects of the enterprise in the future Therefore, investors are willing to pay more for the book value of the business - We can see that the total assets of the business grow rapidly from8,520,393 million dong to 13,405,183 million dong in 2022, besides that the payable debt does not increase too much, from 2,188,391 to 2,571,529 million dong, showing that the business has good 13 debt management ,do not abuse financial leverage to reduce the book value to a low level, leading to a high P/B, the enterprise does not face liquidity risks - Finally, as of July 28, 2023, when comparing the P/B ratio with the industry average which is currently at 1.58, DGC stock is being valued at a much higher level than the industry average and investors have to spend a higher amount to buy this stock and may pose a risk to investors EV/EBITDA - This metric allows you to determine the true value of a company by comparing the total value of the company (EV) (including debt and equity value) with earnings before interest and taxes, depreciation (EBITDA) - EV (Enterprise Value) is considered a measure of enterprise value and is often used as an alternative to capitalization in the stock market Simply put, EV is the cost of buying an entire company EV = Market Capitalization + Net Debt = (Share Price x Volume) + (Market Value of Debt – Cash and Cash Equivalents) - EBITDA (Earning Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization) is the profit before tax and before depreciation of any business This index uses and evaluates the business capacity of enterprises when taxation is zero, without having to bear interest as well as bear depreciation costs EBITDA = Profit before tax (EBIT) + Interest expense (I) + Depreciation (DA) - As of July 28, 2023, DGC's EV/EBITDA is at 5.74, indicating that the table needs about approx.5.74 years to recover the money spent to buy Duc Giang business at the present time 14 - At 5.74, we can see that Duc Giang has a good ability to return investment capital to owners, Effective business performance, can show that the business is generating profits quickly and can represents investment in new activities - When compared to its competitor TPC, which has an EV/EBITDA of up to 9.67, which means that when investing in DGC, it will take almost years less for investors to pay back, and DGC is determined lower price compared to TPC, indicating that this will be a better opportunity for investors to invest in DGC Index P/E A stock's price-to-earnings ratio is denoted by P/E P/E ratio, also known as PER, stands for Price to Earning Ratio The P/E ratio is the number of years an investor breaks even over the course of investing in a company's stock (with a constant return) Formula for stock valuation: - The P/E ratio as of July 28, 2023 of DGC stock is calculated by the ratio between the share price (VND 72,600) and earnings per share (EPS = VND 10,735) of 6.76, meaning investors will break even after 6.76 years of investing in DGC stock if profit is constant - DGC stock is currently being evaluated as attractive, which means that the market is very attractive and the value of this investment is expected 15 - In 2021, the number of outstanding shares of Duc Giang Group is 171.08 million shares, by 2022 the number has increased to 379.78 million, more than 2.2 times higher than in 2021 Meanwhile, profit after tax increased from 2513.78 to 6036.98 billion, more than 2.4 times So in general, an increase in EPS leads to a lower P/E ratio, which means that the time to break even when the investor's return is constant is reduced - As of July 28, 2023, DGC's P/E ratio is undervalued than the average (7.19), showing that DGC is dominant and attractive in the stocks of companies doing business with the same company branch Index P/S Valuation of stocks according to the P/S method is based on the P/S ratio The P/S (Price/Sales per share - or price to ratio) ratio is a measure of a stock's price to revenue per share The P/S ratio and the stock being valued will be proportional to each other Formula for stock valuation using the P/S method In there: Revenue per share = - On July 28, 2023, the closing price of DGC shares was 72,600 VND, the total volume of outstanding shares was 379,778,400 shares, the P/S ratio was calculated at 2.35 - The P/S ratio shows that at the present timethe business is in a stable period, the revenue is growing steadily, which means that the business is undervalued compared to the intrinsic value of the business Therefore, investors should buy DGC shares - However, there is no absolute absolute number to confirm that P/S is the best, the essence of using P/S in the analysis is a relative valuation method, so to decide to invest in DGC, investors should consider other indicators at the same time 16 PART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (USING MA, MACD, RSI) In general, the technical chart of DGC stock has had a rather long accumulation margin since the first months of 2023, then the trend is up again (up about 63% from the bottom) Closing the session on July 28, 2023, DGC stock price touched 72,600 VND/share, gradually approaching the resistance area of the old peak in October 2022 (about 80,000 VND/share) Therefore, we will combine the indicators to make a more objective assessment of the upcoming price trend 17 The RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows that in an uptrend of DGC from June to now, two negative divergences have appeared in a row In the first divergence, the bullish signal starts to weaken, however the price stays well above the trendline and therefore the first divergence is not necessary to sell From this first divergence signal, the price continued to be dragged up quite a distance However, in the second divergence signal, the price is likely to clearly break the uptrend line With two consecutive divergences and a broken trend, the sell signal becomes very clear when it encounters the stiff resistance of the old top The MACD histogram, in the latest session, shows that the moving average is above the MACD line and these two lines are very close together, indicating that it is likely to move sideways in the next few sessions The volume of buyers and sellers is also seeing a struggle Therefore, in the next few sessions, the stock price will go without a clear trend, no signal to buy or sell 18 In the medium and long term, MA50 crosses above MA200, showing that the general trend of DGC is uptrend, there are still positive buying signals after that However, to look at the short term (MA10), the MA10 is moving very close to the price line, showing that the smoothness is getting lower and lower and the trading volume tends to decrease compared to the previous break, that means, in the short term no good buy point 19 Recommendation: DGC is still a good stock and has room for further growth Can be put in the watch list, currently neutral recommendation, expected price is 77,600 VND/share Break the resistance zone 75-77, recommend to buy with a target 80,000 VND/share PART THE MAIN RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPANY ARE Economic recession According to analysts, DGC is a company with a strong balance sheet At the end of 2022, this business only has 467 billion dong of short-term debt, down 45.5% compared to the beginning of the year Meanwhile, the amount of money and deposits of DGC has increased sharply to more than 9,000 billion dong, 2.4 times higher than the level at the beginning of the year These statistics show that DGC is a company that is less affected by macro fluctuations such as rising interest rates, liquidity shortages, etc Although highly appreciated, since the beginning of February until now, DGC has suddenly been sold off by investors and dropped by more than 18%, while the VN Index has only decreased by 6% According to estimates of Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities (MAS), the current price of over 50,000 VND of DGC is only equivalent to the VN Index at 900 points The fact that investors race to "discharge" apart from the main factor comes from the ongoing decline in profits and further from the risks that businesses are facing 20 In a recent report, BVSC raised concerns about the challenges that DGC faces in 2023, making it difficult for business results to skyrocket The first is the yellow phosphorus segment (contributing more than 50% of total revenue) which may record negative growth due to the ongoing economic downturn, electronics demand may decline sharply in 2023 DGC is expected to reduce selling prices, and at the same time reduce gold phosphorus export volume in 2023 Selling price is expected to anchor at 4,5006,000 USD/ton, down 10-30% compared to 2022 The second factor is that the Nghi Son project went into operation later than planned Finally, it is difficult for fertilizer prices to increase sharply due to inventories from the first half of the year The reason is that farmers are afraid to expand the farming area when the cost of farming increases, the price of agricultural products tends to turn down, in the context of prolonged inflation and the energy crisis M&A Doubts stemmed from the acquisition of 51% stake in Tia Sang Battery Joint Stock Company (TSB) Specifically, DGC has just completed buying back more than 3.4 million TSB shares in the trading session on March 21 It is worth mentioning that most of these shares were acquired from Ms Bui Thi Ha Thu, wife of Mr Dao Huu Duy Anh, Member of the Board of Directors cum General Director of DGC Mr Duy Anh is also the son of Mr Dao Huu Huyen, Chairman of the Board of Directors The news that DGC bought TSB shares helped this stock tick up sharply from the price of 17,000 VND at the end of 2022 to the peak price of nearly 47,000 VND However, despite being traded at a high price, Tia Sang Battery's production and business activities are not very prominent with a profit in 2022 of only 3.5 billion VND (down 25%) Risks on tax policy BSC assesses that the risks related to tax policy are (i) a major risk that strongly affects the Group's business activities and (ii) it is difficult to predict this risk in the future In the past, Lao Cai province has proposed to increase the export tax of Yellow Phosphorus from 5% to 20% (the proposal was not approved) and had a great negative effect on the stock price Exchange rate risk According to VNDirect, Duc Giang Chemical is a net exporter with 80% of revenue in USD, while only 40% of COGS is in USD and currently has no foreign currency debt Therefore, 21 the company has no exchange rate risk, even having an advantage when the USD/VND exchange rate increases In addition, with a low debt/equity ratio (16%) and net cash/share of VND17,703/share at the end of Q3 2022, DGC is likely to benefit from rising deposit interest rates at the moment PART CONCLUSION In 2023, DGC has the following factors to support good growth: - Expect yellow phosphorus (P4) prices to rebound from the second half of 2023 on the back of recovering demand The supply of yellow phosphorus began to shrink from June when Yunnan Province continued to suffer a prolonged drought due to the El Nino phenomenon Meanwhile, many manufacturers believe that ICT demand will start to recover in 2H20223 and continue to grow double digits in 2024 - Completing the acquisition of subsidiaries to diversify products of a closed product chain In the first half of 2023, DGC acquired 100% shares of Phosphorus Joint Stock Company and 51% shares of Tia Sang Battery (TSB) This helps DGC grow strongly in the medium and long term - At current prices, DGC's estimated P/E 2024 is ~8.7x, higher than the industry P/E, 5year average of 8.4x - We recommend neutral to DGC with a target price of 77,600 VND/share, 7% growth potential 22 REFERENCE MATERIALS [1] BÁO CÁO CẬP NHẬT DOANH NGHIỆP - DGC (no date) BSC Available at: https://www.bsc.com.vn/Report/ReportFile/2737634 (Accessed: 27 July 2023) [2] Cổ phiếu DGC (Hóa chât Đức Giang): Lợi nhuận giảm mạnh, triển vọng đầu tư (2023) YouTube Review Cổ phiếu O2F Available at: [3] Ducgiang Chemicals & Detergent Powder Joint Co (DGC) (no date) Investing.com Available at: https://www.investing.com/equities/ducgiang-chemicals-detergent-powder- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99pzsD69AjU (Accessed: 28 July 2023) ratios?fbclid=IwAR3rfbcNOL8SQSV3Ve00XjXmLinmP4Gr7eCNUSzKhYu_b_B9ZnMCCDS11s (Accessed: 28 July 2023) [4] Giá cổ phiếu DGC hôm (2023) simplize.vn Available at: https://simplize.vn/cophieu/DGC? fbclid=IwAR3EEgbSxOxWRV7pMyKxJ32IT4DWbp88mGknzaSUvMPlT6E5OS9WrW R4BaI (Accessed: 28 July 2023) [5] Nhật Hải (2023) Điều khiến nhà đầu tư khơng cịn ‘mặn mà’ với DGC?, BANKER.VN Available at: https://banker.vn/dieu-gi-khien-nha-dau-tu-khong-con-man-ma-voi-dgc (Accessed: 27 July 2023) [6] Phạm Ngọc (2022) Hóa chất Đức Giang hưởng lợi kép từ lãi suất tiền gửi tỷ giá USD/VND, Mekong ASEAN Available at: https://mekongasean.vn/hoa-chat-duc-gianghuong-loi-kep-tu-lai-suat-tien-gui-va-ty-gia-usdvnd-post14809.html (Accessed: 27 July 2023) More from: Financial Report Analysis FIN68A Học viện Ngân hàng 128 documents Go to course 30 11 85 Analysis of Financial Report of SABECO… Financial Report… 100% (22) CÂU HỎI ƠN TẬP MƠN KINH TẾ Chính… Financial Report… 91% (66) Tử điển F3 ACCA từ điển môn F3 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