(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) the effect of demographic bonus on economic growth in vietnam and 5 selected countries

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM-NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR MASTER IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE EFFECT OF DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM AND SELECTED COUNTRIES By BUI THAO VY Academic supervisor Dr NGUYEN TRONG HOAI This paper was submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Master’s degree in Development Economics Ho Chi Minh City, November 2013 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First off, I would like to thank the entire VNP’s lecturers for their profound knowledge, inspiring spirit and enthusiasm in teaching process Especially, I would like to send my most extreme gratitude to Dr Nguyen Trong Hoai for sharing his professional understanding, perceptive guidance, precious advice and elaborate comments Besides that, I would like to thank Dr Nguyen Thanh Tra and Dr Luca Tasciotti for their valuable recommendations in the early stage of Thesis Research Design I would like to express my special thanks to my classmates in MDE17, who contributed a delighted academic atmosphere and supported me a lot in the learning process I feel very lucky when being acquainted and shared unforgettable memories with all of you I also would like to thank all staff in VNP office for their warm-hearted assistance Most of all, I would like to thank my parents and my husband for their encouragement and affectionate care TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABSTRACT Demographic change influences to both economic and society at different aspects, especially in the demographic bonus period These changes are not simple in creating the shift in total population, the age structure but also establishing the new working age cohort Therefore, the role of demographic in economic growth and social stability could not be denied The purpose of this thesis is to access the effects of demographic bonus to economic growth and to investigate the gap between countries at different demographic bonus stage The subjects used in this paper include Vietnam and five collective countries in East and Southeast Asia This thesis identifies the factors of demographic bonus that affect to economic growth using panel data of East and Southeast Asian countries in the period 1995-2010 through fixed effect and panel least squared method The demographic bonus dummy variable is also taken into account in this paper in order to examine the gulf between countries have experience in this period and countries have not yet confronted with this unique stage of demographic history It is found that young dependency ratio and labor participants rate have a strong impact on economic growth In addition, all three channels that demographic bonus creates benefit have influence to the economic growth, especially the channel of human capital Dummy variable is also explored that have a significant meaning in the regression model This proves that there is a difference in income between countries at distinguishes stage of demographic bonus Key words: Demographic bonus; panel data; fixed effects; dummy variable; East and Southeast Asia; Vietnam TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENT…………………………………………………………………………………2 ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………………………….3 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement………………………………………………………………………………… 1.2 Research Objectives……………………………………………………………………………… 10 1.3 Research Questions……………………………………………………………………………… 10 1.4 Justification of the thesis………………………………………………………………………… 11 1.5 Organization of the thesis………………………………………………………………………….11 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW FOR DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS 2.1 Key concepts……………………………………………………………………………………… 13 2.2 Theoretical literature……………………………………………………………………………… 14 2.3 Conceptual framework…………………………………………………………………………… 16 2.4 Empirical literature………………………………………………………………………………….19 2.5 Chapter remarks…………………………………………………………………………………….27 CHAPTER 3: DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN EAST ASIA AND VIETNAM, DATA AND METHODOLOGY 3.1 Demographic in East Asia and Vietnam………………………………………………………….29 3.1.1 East and Southeast Asia……………………………………………………………………… 29 3.1.2 Vietnam……………………………………………………………………………………………32 3.2 Data………………………………………………………………………………………………… 34 3.3 Analytical framework……………………………………………………………………………….35 3.4 Research methodology…………………………………………………………………………….36 3.5 Chapter remarks…………………………………………………………………………………….44 CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS AND DISCUSSIONS 4.1 Descriptive statistical analyses for demographic bonus……………………………………… 45 4.2 Empirical results…………………………………………………………………………………….46 4.3 Chapter remarks…………………………………………………………………………………….50 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 5.1Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………51 5.2 Policy implications………………………………………………………………………………… 52 5.3 Limitations and directions for further studies…………………………………………………….54 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries 5.3.1 Limitations…………………………………………………………………………………………54 5.3.2 Directions for further studies…………………………………………………………………….55 REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………………………… 56 APPENDICE…………………………………………………………………………………………… 62 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries LIST OF TABLE Table 2.1: Summary of empirical studies……………………………………………………………24 Table 3.1: Vietnamese age structure, 1979-2009………………………………………………… 33 Table 3.2: Vietnamese population projection, 2010-2050………………………………………… 33 Table 3.3: Data sources……………………………………………………………………………….34 Table 3.4: Variables’ expected signs…………………………………………………………………43 Table 4.1: Data descriptive statistics…………………………………………………………………45 Table 4.2: Estimation results………………………………………………………………………… 48 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries LIST OF FIGURE Figure 2.1: Relationship between demographic bonus and economic growth………………… 17 Figure 3.1: Share of Working-age population in East Asia and selected countries…………… 31 Figure 3.2: Economic growth in selected countries………………………………………………32 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries Sach, J & Warner, 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Political science paper working Emory University Tobin, J (1967) Life-cycle Saving and Balanced Economic Growth New York: Wiley Press UNFPA (2010) Taking Advantage of the Demographic Bonus in Vietnam - Opportunity, Challenges and Policy Opt ons United Nations Population Division (2008) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision United Nations, NY United Nations Population Division (2012) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision United Nations, NY Vietnam 2009 Population and Housing Census Retrived September 24, 2012, from: http://www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=515&idmid=5&ItemID=9813 Weil, D (2000) Mortality Decline, Human Capital Investment and Economic Growth Journal of Development Economics, 62(9), 1-23 60 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries Weil, D and Mankiw, P (1992) A contribution to Empirics of Economic Growth A Quarterly Journal of economics, vol.107(2) World Development Indicators Retrived December 10, 2012, from: http://data.worlbank.org/data_catalog/world_development_indicators Zhang, J & Lee, R (2003) Rising Longevity, Education, Savings, and Growth Journal of Development Economics, 70(1), 83-101 61 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries APPENDICES Appendix 1: Model with fixed effects Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 12/02/13 Time: 15:04 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 95 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI LNPOPG SAV TRADE 3.901037 0.448133 -0.255371 0.050575 0.003835 0.448673 0.097385 0.087793 0.005966 0.001189 8.694606 4.601663 -2.908771 8.476669 3.224307 0.0000 0.0000 0.0046 0.0000 0.0018 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.972318 0.969387 0.254317 5.497549 0.555630 331.7321 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 8.021389 1.453523 0.198829 0.467658 0.307456 0.961766 Appendix 2: Likelihood ratio test for fixed effects Likelihood ratio test Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Equation: Untitled Test cross-section fixed effects Effects Test Cross-section F Cross-section Chi-square Statistic 83.206642 168.532007 d.f Prob (5,85) 0.0000 0.0000 Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares 62 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries Date: 12/03/13 Time: 17:46 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 95 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI LNPOPG SAV TRADE 5.827348 0.823120 -0.575432 -0.017273 -0.004606 0.251949 0.071720 0.144440 0.008793 0.001566 23.12907 11.47685 -3.983882 -1.964337 -2.940482 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0526 0.0042 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.836828 0.829576 0.600050 32.40535 -83.71037 115.3916 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 8.021389 1.453523 1.867587 2.002001 1.921900 0.225746 Appendix 3: Model with fixed effects Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 12/02/13 Time: 15:11 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI LABOR LNDEP1 SAV TRADE 20.79280 0.570354 0.051540 -5.501682 0.018759 -0.003613 2.252577 0.057202 0.025974 0.503679 0.005075 0.001064 9.230671 9.970878 1.984330 -10.92299 3.696465 -3.396903 0.0000 0.0000 0.0504 0.0000 0.0004 0.0010 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression 0.987816 0.986383 0.170408 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion 8.042309 1.460309 -0.593771 63 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 2.468310 39.50100 689.1418 0.000000 Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.299939 -0.474999 0.937273 Appendix 4: Tests for fixed effects Likelihood ratio test Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Equation: Untitled Test cross-section fixed effects Effects Test Statistic Cross-section F Cross-section Chi-square d.f Prob 22.187482 80.173825 (5,85) 0.0000 0.0000 Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 12/03/13 Time: 17:50 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI LABOR LNDEP1 SAV TRADE 31.68911 0.387436 -0.065573 -5.806890 -0.012201 -0.002030 1.322455 0.041330 0.007584 0.404088 0.005274 0.000644 23.96234 9.374305 -8.646685 -14.37034 -2.313619 -3.149064 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0230 0.0022 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.971914 0.970354 0.251436 5.689815 -0.585915 622.8961 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 8.042309 1.460309 0.137207 0.297478 0.201991 0.495638 Appendix 5: Model regression results Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares 64 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries Date: 12/02/13 Time: 15:08 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI LABOR LNDEP2 SAV TRADE 15.53926 0.582807 0.045700 -3.503792 0.019561 -0.003366 2.108150 0.059431 0.026878 0.342985 0.005272 0.001102 7.371043 9.806454 1.700256 -10.21558 3.709986 -3.053663 0.0000 0.0000 0.0927 0.0000 0.0004 0.0030 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.986854 0.985307 0.177009 2.663233 35.85266 638.0812 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 8.042309 1.460309 -0.517764 -0.223932 -0.398992 0.897705 Appendix 6: Model regression results Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 12/02/13 Time: 15:11 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI YOUTHDEP OLDDEP SAV TRADE 9.355580 0.412332 -0.128703 -0.025860 0.023860 -0.004036 0.734144 0.081796 0.015085 0.042230 0.005415 0.001141 12.74352 5.040950 -8.532064 -0.612360 4.405960 -3.537190 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.5419 0.0000 0.0007 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression 0.986849 0.985302 0.177040 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion 8.042309 1.460309 -0.517408 65 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 2.664181 35.83557 637.8510 0.000000 Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.223576 -0.398636 0.906617 Appendix 7: Model regression results Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 12/02/13 Time: 15:18 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CPI HDI LNLIFE LABOR LNDEP1 SAV TRADE 14.80655 0.481637 2.815481 0.331751 0.046876 -4.559938 0.015129 -0.004093 8.534641 0.070145 1.010798 1.863862 0.026578 0.664015 0.005282 0.001026 1.734876 6.866301 2.785405 0.177991 1.763715 -6.867226 2.864246 -3.987918 0.0865 0.0000 0.0066 0.8592 0.0815 0.0000 0.0053 0.0001 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.989171 0.987606 0.162574 2.193724 45.16180 631.8294 0.000000 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 8.042309 1.460309 -0.670037 -0.322782 -0.529671 0.847951 Appendix 8: Model regression results Dependent Variable: LNGDPPC Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 12/02/13 Time: 15:21 Sample: 1995 2010 Periods included: 16 Cross-sections included: Total panel (balanced) observations: 96 66 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries (LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries(LUAN.van.THAC.si).the.effect.of.demographic.bonus.on.economic.growth.in.vietnam.and.5.selected.countries