(LUẬN văn THẠC sĩ) demographic factors and economic growth, the bi directional causality in south east asia

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE BI-DIRECTIONAL CAUSALITY IN SOUTH EAST ASIA BY VO TAN THANH DIEP MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, November 2015 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE BI-DIRECTIONAL CAUSALITY IN SOUTH EAST ASIA A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By VO TAN THANH DIEP Academic Supervisor: PROFESSOR NGUYEN TRONG HOAI HO CHI MINH CITY, December 2015 i TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com DECLARATION “I certify the content of this dissertation has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degrees I certify that, to the best of my knowledge, any help received in preparing this dissertation and all source used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation.” Signature Vo Tan Thanh Diep Date: ii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Nguyen Trong Hoai for his professional knowledge, perceptive guidance and for giving me valuable opportunities His guidance really helped me for the direction of the research and writing of this thesis In addition my advisor, I would like acknowledge the love from my family to me over the last 24 years A special thank is to my parents for their support throughout my life, to my sister and my relation in Ho Chi Minh City for valuable support during my studies Furthermore, I would also like to thank all lecturers and staff at the Vietnam Netherlands Program and my VNP 20 classmates Most of all, a special thanks go to my better haft – Nguyen Son Kien - for the motivation, encouragement and affectionate care that he bring to my life iii TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABSTRACT This study has demonstrated new evidence sustaining the idea that variation in demographic factors is an important determinant of growth in per capita income Using an annual panel dataset from 1990 to 2013 at the country-level in the Southeast Asia, this study is conducted to analyze the following key areas in comparing with current literature First, the determination of the impact of a number of the demographic factors on the economic growth by using a various aspect of demographic factors, including: population growth, life expectancy, and age structure Second, the interpretation of the bi-directional causality among: (i) the population growth and the economic growth; and (ii) the life expectancy and the economic growth Furthermore, the two new econometric techniques, Driscoll and Kraay estimation, and structural equation model, in parallel with the panel regression technique are applied It is noticeable about the following key contribution, including: (i) the specification of the various aspects of demographic factors on the economic growth is analyzed in the new context (Southeast Asia) where most countries have experienced the demographic transition, and have received the demographic dividend; and (ii) the worth analysis of the bi-directional causality has been recognized since it is one of the first in its line of current literature that confirms the inverse effect of the economic growth on population growth, and life expectancy simultaneously Key words: Demographic transition, economic growth, population growth, life expectancy, age structure, Southeast Asia, Panel data, SEM iv TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia TABLE OF CONTENT Declaration ii Acknowledgement iii Abstract iv Table of content v List of tables viii List of figures ix Chapter Introduction 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Research objective 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Research scope 1.5 Thesis structure Chapter Literature review 2.1 Theoretical literature 2.1.1 2.1.1.1 Demographic factors 2.1.1.2 Demographic Transition 2.1.2 Demographic factors and economic growth 2.1.2.1 The perspective of Malthusian Regime 2.1.2.2 The perspective of Post-Malthusian 10 2.1.2.3 The perspective of Modern Growth Regime 11 2.1.3 2.2 Key concepts Demographic transition and economic growth 13 2.1.3.1 The labor supply mechanism 13 2.1.3.2 The savings mechanism 14 2.1.3.3 The Human capital mechanism 14 Empirical studies 15 2.2.1 Population growth and age structure 15 2.2.2 Life expectancy 18 2.2.3 Bi-directional causality 19 2.2.4 Determinants of economic growth, population growth, and life expectancy 20 2.2.4.1 Economic growth 20 2.2.4.2 Population growth 21 2.2.4.3 Life expectancy 21 v TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia 2.3 Hypothesis construction and conceptual framework 22 2.3.1 Hypothesis construction 22 2.3.1.1 Demographic factors and economic growth 22 2.3.1.2 Two-way relationship 24 2.3.2 Conceptual framework 25 Chapter Research methodology 27 3.1 Data 27 3.2 Model specification 29 3.2.1 Model specification for one way effects 29 3.2.2 Model specification for the bi-directional causality 30 3.3 Research methodology 32 3.3.1 Models of panel data regression 32 3.3.1.1 The model of Pooled regression 32 3.3.1.2 The model of fixed effects estimation 32 3.3.1.3 The model of random effects estimation 34 3.3.1.4 Driscoll and Kraay standard errors and panel models 34 3.3.2 The structural equation model (SEM) 36 3.3.2.1 The causal effect and mediate mechanism 36 3.3.2.2 The simultaneous (non-recursive) structural equation model 37 3.3.2.3 The logic of SEM 39 Chapter 4: Empirical results 40 4.1 Overviews of demographic transition in Southeast Asian 40 4.2 Data description 42 4.2.1 Descriptive statistic 42 4.2.2 The possible relationship by scatter 44 4.2.3 Correlation 45 4.2.4 Demographic factors by deciles 46 4.3 Panel data regression 47 4.3.1 Diagnostic analysis 47 4.3.2 One-way direction - Driscoll and Kraay estimation 49 4.4 The bi-directional causality estimation 52 Chapter Conclusions and policy implication 56 5.1 Concluding remarks 56 5.2 Policy implication 58 vi TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth 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the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth 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the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia APPENDIX Appendix A One-way regressions Model Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Pooled OLS Group variable (i): id maximum lag: lngdp Coef pop_growth lnlife lnlifebase fe_ma trade gcf dum cl lndensitybase _cons 3457083 7.79809 3.875019 -.0030197 0061641 -.0189721 2915626 -.0930458 -.4473369 -38.7149 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0911707 7691333 2799068 0025026 0007746 005366 1213419 0539855 0193406 2.974981 t 3.79 10.14 13.84 -1.21 7.96 -3.54 2.40 -1.72 -23.13 -13.01 Number of obs Number of groups F( 9, 9) Prob > F R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.004 0.000 0.000 0.258 0.000 0.006 0.040 0.119 0.000 0.000 = = = = = = 216 10 2117.67 0.0000 0.7809 0.6395 [95% Conf Interval] 1394658 6.05819 3.241826 -.0086809 0044119 -.0311109 0170682 -.2151696 -.4910884 -45.44477 5519508 9.537991 4.508212 0026415 0079164 -.0068334 566057 029078 -.4035853 -31.98502 Model P a g e | 67 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Pooled OLS Group variable (i): id maximum lag: lngdp Coef pop0_14 pop65 lnlifebase fe_ma trade gcf dum cl lndensitybase _cons -.1059098 -.5327396 4.088387 0063166 0099676 -.0092686 2849647 0027989 -.2961979 -2.416459 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0058659 0783167 5048692 0053514 0004673 0055275 1468837 0267684 0454516 2.003408 t -18.06 -6.80 8.10 1.18 21.33 -1.68 1.94 0.10 -6.52 -1.21 Number of obs Number of groups F( 9, 9) Prob > F R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.268 0.000 0.128 0.084 0.919 0.000 0.258 = = = = = = 216 10 3441.87 0.0000 0.8232 0.5744 [95% Conf Interval] -.1191793 -.7099042 2.946294 -.0057891 0089105 -.0217725 -.0473094 -.0577553 -.3990167 -6.948483 -.0926403 -.355575 5.230481 0184224 0110248 0032354 6172387 0633531 -.1933791 2.115565 Model Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Pooled OLS Group variable (i): id maximum lag: lngdp Coef depo_ratio depy_ratio lnlifebase fe_ma trade gcf dum cl lndensitybase _cons -.3219621 -.0221325 4.406163 0081531 0100834 -.0092869 427901 0112998 -.2839611 -6.419655 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0468335 0018643 4914765 0050537 0005041 0055412 1223229 0225394 0428255 2.111333 t -6.87 -11.87 8.97 1.61 20.00 -1.68 3.50 0.50 -6.63 -3.04 Number of obs Number of groups F( 9, 9) Prob > F R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.141 0.000 0.128 0.007 0.628 0.000 0.014 = = = = = = 216 10 1933.93 0.0000 0.8269 0.5684 [95% Conf Interval] -.4279067 -.0263498 3.294366 -.003279 0089431 -.021822 1511873 -.0396879 -.3808391 -11.19582 -.2160174 -.0179152 5.51796 0195853 0112237 0032482 7046148 0622875 -.1870831 -1.643488 Model P a g e | 68 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia Regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors Method: Pooled OLS Group variable (i): id maximum lag: lngdp Coef pop15_64 lnlifebase fe_ma trade gcf dum cl lndensitybase _cons 0583743 4.891064 -.0141455 0093171 -.0173553 0848371 0570614 -.5056741 -12.81881 Drisc/Kraay Std Err .0126863 5201905 0028953 0004891 0056524 1761342 0589788 0319125 1.942476 t 4.60 9.40 -4.89 19.05 -3.07 0.48 0.97 -15.85 -6.60 Number of obs Number of groups F( 8, 9) Prob > F R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.013 0.642 0.359 0.000 0.000 = = = = = = 216 10 453.65 0.0000 0.7400 0.6950 [95% Conf Interval] 0296758 3.714312 -.0206951 0082106 -.0301419 -.3136062 -.076358 -.5778651 -17.213 0870728 6.067817 -.007596 0104236 -.0045687 4832805 1904808 -.4334831 -8.424625 Appendix B Bi-directional causality regressions P a g e | 69 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia (LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia(LUAN.van.THAC.si).demographic.factors.and.economic.growth the.bi.directional.causality.in.south.east.asia