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UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM: A QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT BY LÊ TẤN BỬU DUY MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY, April 2014 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM: A QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By LÊ TẤN BỬU DUY Academic Supervisor: DƯƠNG NHƯ HÙNG TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I want to send special thanks to my academic supervisor, Dr Duong Nhu Hung, for his patience as well as his continuous supports and valuable comments during my thesis writing process I am also thankful to all of the lecturers in VNP for their wonderful lessons, to all administrators in the VNP Office for their supports, and especially to Mr Nguyen Dinh Quy for being so helpful every time I come to the VNP Library Finally, I want to show my gratitude to my family and my friends for their endless encouragements to me so that I could finish the program as well as the thesis TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ABSTRACT The thesis employs two quantitative methods to explore the relationship between economic growth and financial development in Vietnam using quarterly data from 1999 to 2012 Firstly, the ARDL cointegration test developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999), and Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) was used to search for a long run relationship among economic growth, financial development, and other macroeconomic variables including exports, imports, inflation, and real interest rate The existence of such long run cointegration relationship is confirmed through the ARDL bound testing procedure with all four indicators of financial development, namely ratio of M2 to GDP, ratio of deposits to GDP, ratio of credits to GDP, and ratio of credits provided to the private sector to GDP Secondly, Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test was employed to determine the causal relationship between economic growth and financial development under a multivariate VAR framework Evidence of causality running from financial development to economic growth is found for all indicators of financial development These results provide strong support to the supply-leading hypothesis on the relationship between economic growth and financial development for the case of Vietnam TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT 1.2 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND QUESTIONS 10 1.3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 11 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS 11 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 12 2.1 KEY CONCEPTS 12 Economic Growth 12 Financial Development 12 2.2 THEORETICAL REVIEW 12 2.2.1 Theoretical Hypotheses 12 2.2.2 Financial Repression Theory 14 2.2.3 Financial Liberalization Theory 15 2.2.4 Financial Structure Theory 17 Bank-based Theory 17 Market-based Theory 19 Other Views in Financial Structure Theory 21 2.2.5 Endogenous Growth Theory 22 2.2.6 Summary of Theoretical Predictions 25 2.3 EMPIRICAL REVIEW 26 2.3.1 Traditional Cross-Country Analysis 26 2.3.2 Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis 27 2.3.3 Time series analysis 29 VECM Approach 29 VAR Approach 32 2.3.4 Previous empirical studies about Vietnam 35 2.3.5 Summary of findings from previous empirical studies 35 2.4 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 26 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA COLLECTION 38 3.1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 38 3.2 MODEL SPECIFICATION AND DATA COLLECTION 39 Economic Growth (EG) 39 Financial Development (FD) 40 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment (LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment Trade (EX, IM) 41 Inflation (INF) 43 Real Interest Rate (RIR) 44 3.3 ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES 45 3.3.1 Seasonal Adjustment 45 3.3.2 Unit Root Test 47 3.3.3 ARDL Cointegration Test 48 3.3.4 Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test 50 CHAPTER 4: OVERVIEW OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN VIETNAM 53 4.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH 53 4.1.1 Overview 53 4.1.2 Results 53 Structural Changes 53 Global Integration 55 4.1.3 Challenges 56 Investment-driven Economic Growth 56 Inefficient SOEs and Public Investments 57 Macroeconomic Instability 58 4.2 FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT 58 4.2.1 Overview 58 4.2.2 Results 59 Banking Market 59 Stock Market 62 4.3 A FIRST LOOK ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT 64 CHAPTER 5: EMPIRICAL RESULTS 65 5.1 Seasonal Adjustments 65 5.2 Preliminary Analysis 66 5.3 Unit Root Test 69 5.4 ARDL Cointegration Test 70 5.5 Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test 72 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS 77 6.1 Summary and Conclusions 77 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment (LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment 6.2 Limitations 78 6.3 Directions for Further Research 79 REFERENCE 80 TIEU LUAN MOI download : skknchat@gmail.com (LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam 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(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment(LUAN.van.THAC.si).financial.development.and.economic.growth.in.vietnam a.quantitative.assessment Lee, C C., & Chang, C P (2009) FDI, financial development, and economic growth: International evidence Journal of Applied Economics, 12(2), 249-271 Leung, S (2009) Banking and financial sector reforms in Vietnam ASEAN 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