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CONTENT h LIST OF TABLES ii LIST OF FIRGURES iii ABBREVIATION iv CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the study 1.2 Overview of dollarization in Vietnam 1.3 Research objective and research question 1.4 Research methods 1.5 Research finding and Limitation 1.6 Structure of Study CHAPTER 2: LITTERATURE REVIEW 11 2.1 Definition of dollarization 11 2.2 Impact of the dollarization to economy 13 2.3 Reason of dollarization 17 2.4 Literature review 18 2.5 Some determinant of dollarization 22 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 33 3.1 Research model 33 3.2 Variable measurement 33 3.3 Data collection 34 3.4 Data analysis 35 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 39 4.1 Unit root test 39 4.2 Optimal lag selection 39 4.3 Johansen Cointegration test 40 4.4 Generating VECM 40 4.5 Granger causality 43 4.6 Impulse Response Function 44 4.7 Variance Decomposition 48 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION, CONTRIBUTION AND IMPLICATIONS OF RESEARCH 50 5.1 Contribution and implication of study 50 5.2 Conclusion 54 APPENDIX 57 REFERENCE 75 i LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Notation of variables 33 Table 4.1: The result of Unit Root test 39 Table 4.2: Test the significant of coefficient 41 Table 4.3: Granger causality result 43 Table 4.4: Impulse response of dollarization 44 Table 4.5: Variance decomposition of DDL 48 h ii LIST OF FIRGURES Figure 2.1: Theoretical frame model – Design by author 32 Figure 4.1: Response of DDL to BOL 44 Figure 4.2 Response of DDL to EXR 45 Figure 4.3: Response of DDL to INF 46 Figure 4.4: Response of DDL to INT 46 Figure 4.5: Response of DDL to TRS 47 h iii ABBREVIATION h BOL: Balance of commercial trade CNY: Renminbi CPI: Consumer price index DL: Dollarization DPR: Deposit rate EUR: EURO EX: The total amount of export EXR: Exchange rate FCC: Foreign currency circulated domestically FCD: Foreign currency deposits FDI: Foreign direct investment GDP: Gross domestic product GSO: General Statistics Office IM: The total amount of import IMF: International monetary fund INF: Inflation INT: Interest rate JPY: Japanese Yen LDR: Lending rate NER: Nominal Exchange rate OSD: Foreign currency deposits abroad RER: Real exchange rate TRS: Total reserve USA: United States USD: US dollar VAR: Vector auto regression VECM: Vector error correction model VND: Vietnam dong WB: World Bank WTO: World trade organization iv CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the study In the process of international integration, Vietnam confronts many significant challenges One of the major challenges for Vietnam is the dollarization rate which is the cause of instability in the economy Vietnam has agreed to anchor VND to other currencies such as the USA dollars, Yuan; the fluctuation in the value of Vietnam compared to foreign currencies will affect the confidence of people and businesses They will switch to saving foreign currencies instead of VND One of the foreign currencies that has the most significant impact on Vietnam and the world, in general, is the dollar Significantly, under commercial war between the USA and China, foreign investment will exchange from China to Vietnam Therefore, the topic focuses on studying dollarization to assess its impacts on the Vietnamese economy to provide policy implications to ensure macroeconomic and micro stability There are two statements: one is liberalizing dollarization and restraining dollarization h The first view holds that a dollarized country will have advantages in the period of economic integration, creating favorable conditions to attract foreign investment flows While the second point of view is that dollarization is the cause of economic instability, which causes the local currency to depreciate and the people to lose confidence in the national financial system Under the evidence of courtesy and lessons from other countries, Vietnam has issued many tools and regulations in line with the actual dollarization of Vietnam from time to time Some documents and principles are well applied However, there are many shortcomings and inconsistencies in implementation 1.2 Overview of dollarization in Vietnam 1.2.1 Time: before opening Vietnam’s economic (1988) Vietnam implements the mechanism of centralized management and subsidies; the State holds a monopoly on foreign trade and foreign exchange The scale of the economy is small, the competitiveness of goods and services is very low, the external economy is underdeveloped, and the banking system is still in its infancy The foreign exchange management charter promulgated with the Government's Decree No 102/CP of July 6, 19631, prohibits organizations and individuals from owning and using domestic foreign currency (including storing and carrying per person), and people use VND in domestic transactions The conversion of VND into foreign currencies is carried out according to the plan with the multi-exchange rate mechanism (commercial exchange rate, noncommercial exchange rate) announced by the State Import-export and international payments are mainly under bilateral - multilateral agreements The currency used in external payment relations is usually the transfer ruble Therefore, the conversion capacity of VND is limited Towards the end of the period when there were signs of economic crisis, the VND weakened enormously after the price - salary - money policy failed, inflation reached three digits, and there were continuous increases in the price of gold In the population appeared the purchase of gold and foreign currency to hoard, speculate on costs, and use as a means of payment However, the degree of dollarization is insignificant due to the small opening of the economy 1.2.2 Time: During open economic to financial crisis (1988-1998) The phenomenon of the Vietnamese economy widely using the US dollar in trading h transactions only started to be noticed in the late 80s and early 90s, when our economy faced inflation VND became depreciated against the USD, leading people's psychology to switch to hoarding USD or gold instead of the local currency The phenomenon of the Vietnamese economy widely using the USA dollar in trading transactions only started to be noticed in the late 80s and early 90s, when our economy faced inflation VND became depreciated against the USD, leading people's psychology to switch to hoarding USD or gold instead of the local currency On the other hand, due to the weakness in the value of the dong, people switched to short-term deposits in local currency instead of long-term deposits, which greatly affected the amount of investment capital for the economy in the middle of the period construction section Based on that situation, the Government issued the Investment Law in 1987 to welcome and encourage foreign organizations and individuals to invest capital and technology in Vietnam while allowing banks to receive deposits in USD Article 2, Government's Decree No 102/CP of July 6, 1963 This policy has increased the dollarization rate of the economy by increasing the number of dollars flowing into the country through channels such as FDI, foreign aid, and remittances By 1991, after Vietnam normalized relations with China and several other countries and the State's open-door policies, the USD entering Vietnam increased sharply Besides, the inflation rate peaked at 67.5%, and the USD/VND exchange rate skyrocketed (from 5,133 VND/USD to 9,274 VND/USD) It led to a sharp increase in dollarization, with more than 41% of deposits in banks being in USD Faced with this situation, the State Bank of Vietnam tried to reverse the dollarization of the economy and was quite successful when it sharply reduced the number of USD deposits in banks to 20% in 1996 On the other hand At this time, inflation was only around 10%, the exchange rate fluctuated slightly, and holding VND proved to be more profitable, so dollarization decreased sharply, FCD/M2 ratio in 1997 was 23.6 % At the same time, the Government also began to restrict payments in foreign currencies, abolished foreign currency selling points, and strengthened foreign currency exchange desks However, due to habits and underground economic activities, the free foreign currency market, foreign currency quotes, and payments among the population are still h out of control Some opinion agrees that illegal foreign exchange activities exist because they have not been dealt with decisively So far, this problem is still unresolved in existence 1.2.3 Time: After financial crisis to now (1998-2019) 1998-2007 After stable periods of 20%, the FCD/M2 ratio increased again during this period and by 2000-2001 to nearly 30% The reason is that for a long time, the USA economy's high and stable growth has made the USD more attractive than other foreign currencies On the other hand, newly issued policies have created people's trust and attracted a large amount of foreign currency from the free market into the banking system During this period, dollarization is impacted by the regional financial crisis and the market's expectation of the devaluation of the VND 2007-2019 The ratio of FCD/M2 continued to decrease by 2003 to 23.6% Payment and foreign currency trading continued to grow According to the survey results in 2002, the operation of the free foreign currency market had a scale of 4-6 billion USD/year, equivalent to one-third of the export turnover that year, the amount of foreign currency floating outside the free market It was estimated at billion USD Dollarization in the listing and pricing in foreign currencies is still prevalent However, by 2004 when inflation was at 9.5%, and VND deposit interest rates were not much more attractive than USD deposit rates, people had the mentality to exchange VND for other currencies with high stability, such as USD, EUR to deposit into commercial banks, causing FCD/M2 to increase to 24.3% With the sales of foreign currency deposits constantly increasing, commercial banks must also find ways to lend this foreign currency, avoiding capital backlog The phenomenon is mobilizing capital and structuring the banking system In 2005, the USA introductory interest rate increased from 3.75% to 4.75% According to that effect, domestic and commercial banks simultaneously increased USD deposit interest rates, and VND deposit interest rates also increased while inflation was still high, attracting foreign currency deposits to commercial banks h 2006 marked a spectacular growth of direct investment in Vietnam, reaching 10.2 billion USD, bringing a significant source of foreign currency revenue and making the FCD/M2 ratio remain above 20% In 2007, Vietnam officially became the 150th member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and committed to permanent normal trade status with the United States, which has created opportunities to expand export markets, limit trade restrictions, and reduce trade barriers However, in 2007, the fluctuations of the USA economy also partly affected the Vietnamese economy, making the exchange rate unstable in the country These effects once again increase the rate of dollarization in the economy The 2008 year is considered a tumultuous year for the Vietnamese economy in general and the issue of the USD/VND exchange rate in particular In 2008, the State Bank announced the issuance of bills in VND and made it compulsory for commercial banks with a total value of issued bills of VND 20,300 billion, term of 364 days, and interest rate of 7.8%/year At the same time, the State Bank did not buy USD in order to limit the injection of money into circulation In the third quarter of 2008, when the exchange rate stabilized, the State Bank announced the USD reserve ratio and strictly controlled foreign currency exchange agents due to failure to register with commercial banks) The bank controls all activities to prohibit the purchase and sale of foreign currencies to circumvent the margin, the import and export of gold, and selling foreign currencies to intervene in the market through commercial banks Large trade has overcome the shortage of USD, stabilized the foreign exchange market, and at the same time, stabilized the FCD/M2 ratio by around 20% The inflation rate increased to approximately 20% the VND decreased the value that people tried to hold the USD at the end of 2008 The importing enterprises increasingly use foreign currency for payment, and the remittances flow to the market It is a reason the dollarization to become serious again On the other hand, commercial banks increased the deposit interest rate in USD to 7.2%, nearly 2% higher than the one-year US government bond rate of 5.25% The big difference in the international market has created a sentiment of attaching importance to the dollar, fueling foreign currency speculation and increasing the economy's dollarization level After the shock of the financial crisis in 2008, the world economy h recovered slowly The US dollar is increasingly depreciating, but the USD/VND exchange rate is increasing, exceeding 20,000 VND/USD People are increasingly distrustful of VND, and the cult of the dollar is becoming more serious The dollarization rate of Vietnam is currently at 20% Although the State does not allow it, in other words, it is illegal, foreign currency transactions in some centers of big cities (such as Ha Trung in Hanoi) have been quite active, even when The State Bank has strengthened its control because as long as there exists a black-market rate higher than the official rate, foreign currency sellers still choose a high exchange rate The black market also has the advantage of convenience for people The level of dollarization in Vietnam is relatively high, consistently above 20% Since November 2009, the dong has depreciated many times, losing people's confidence and accelerating the dollarization process Over the years, the number of total deposits in USD at banks has continuously increased, especially in the banking system in two big cities, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City However, with the continuous efforts of the State Bank of Vietnam by issuing circulars stipulating the maximum interest rate of mobilized capital in USA dollars of organizations and individuals in the direction of reducing the interest rate of USD deposits of organizations and individuals down The State Bank requires state-owned enterprises and corporations and corporations to sell foreign currency to credit institutions and, at the same time, increase the required reserve ratio of foreign currency The move of the State Bank clearly shows the tightening of the foreign exchange market, limiting the holding and borrowing of capital in USD, and gradually combating the dollarization of the economy 1.3 Research objective and research question In an emerging economy like Vietnam, dollarization is essential to the monetary policy system The government always tries to control the instability of the monetary system and the value of the domestic currency Meanwhile, dollarization is an essential factor in destabilizing the economy, reducing the belief of citizen and enterprises in the domestic monetary system, which cause severe consequences in the decision to store foreign or domestic currency This thesis aims to estimate a model to evaluate the volatility of dollarization in response h to the fluctuations of some factors in the economy in the short and long run In addition, the thesis also studies the characteristics of dollarization and its operating mechanism in the Vietnamese economy Based on some literature review, the thesis focused on investigating macro factors determining dollarization in Vietnam from 1985-2020 According to some time series and data limitations, the author uses some determinants such as the balance of commercial trade, Inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, and total reserve Although the foreign currency is not a dollar, the USD is an international payment, and 80% of transactions are by USD (Hoang Binh Minh, 2014) In addition, the author improves and develops on the previous research to use the dollar as the main currency to calculate dollarization As such, this study aims to identify factors associated with dollarization in Vietnam by attempting to answer the following research questions: (1) What are the factors impacting dollarization in Vietnam? (2) How these identified factors impact dollarization in the short and long term? Optimal lag length criteria Johansen Cointegration test h 64 Generating VECM h 65 h 66 h 67 h 68 P Value of Coefficient h 69 Granger Causality h 70 Impulse Response Impulse Response with multiple graph Response to Cholesky One S.D (d.f adjusted) Innovations Response of DDL to DDL Response of DDL to DBOL Response of DDL to DEXR Response of DDL to DINF Response of DDL to DINT Response of DDL to DTRS 006 006 006 006 006 006 004 004 004 004 004 004 002 002 002 002 002 002 000 000 000 000 000 000 -.002 -.002 -.002 -.002 -.002 -.002 10 12 Response of DBOL to DDL 10 12 Response of DBOL to DBOL 10 12 Response of DBOL to DEXR 10 12 Response of DBOL to DINF 10 12 Response of DBOL to DINT 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 500 500 500 500 500 500 0 0 0 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -500 -1,000 -1,000 10 12 -1,000 Response of DEXR to DDL 10 12 -1,000 Response of DEXR to DBOL 10 12 -1,000 Response of DEXR to DEXR 10 12 Response of DEXR to DINF 10 12 Response of DEXR to DINT 200 200 200 200 200 100 100 100 100 100 0 0 0 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 -100 10 12 10 12 Response of DINF to DBOL 10 12 Response of DINF to DEXR 10 12 Response of DINF to DINF 10 12 Response of DINF to DINT 01 01 01 01 01 00 00 00 00 00 00 -.01 10 12 -.01 Response of DINT to DDL 10 12 -.01 Response of DINT to DBOL 10 12 -.01 Response of DINT to DEXR 10 12 Response of DINT to DINF 10 12 Response of DINT to DINT 004 004 004 004 000 000 000 000 000 -.004 -.004 -.004 -.004 -.004 -.004 10 12 10 12 Response of DTRS to DBOL h 10 12 Response of DTRS to DEXR 10 12 Response of DTRS to DINF 10 12 Response of DTRS to DINT 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 Response of DTRS to DTRS 004 1,000 Response of DINT to DTRS 000 Response of DTRS to DDL 12 -.01 004 10 Response of DINF to DTRS 01 -.01 Response of DEXR to DTRS 100 Response of DINF to DDL -1,000 200 Response of DBOL to DTRS 1,000 10 12 71 10 12 Impulse Response with combined graph Response to Cholesky One S.D (d.f adjusted) Innovations Response of DDL to Innovations Response of DBOL to Innovations 008 1,500 006 1,000 004 500 002 000 -500 -.002 -1,000 -.004 -.006 -1,500 DDL DINF DBOL DINT 10 11 12 DEXR DT RS DDL DINF Response of DEXR to Innovations DBOL DINT 10 11 12 DEXR DT RS Response of DINF to Innovations 300 016 012 200 008 100 004 000 -.004 h -100 -200 -.008 -.012 DDL DINF DBOL DINT 10 11 12 DEXR DT RS DDL DINF Response of DINT to Innovations DBOL DINT 10 11 12 DEXR DT RS Response of DTRS to Innovations 008 2,000 004 1,000 000 -.004 -1,000 -.008 -2,000 DDL DINF DBOL DINT 10 11 DEXR DT RS 12 DDL DINF DBOL DINT 10 11 12 DEXR DT RS 72 Variance decomposition Variance decomposition with multiple graph Variance Decomposition using Cholesky (d.f adjusted) Factors Percent DDL varianc e due to DDL Percent DDL variance due to DBOL Percent DDL variance due to DEXR Percent DDL variance due to DINF Percent DDL variance due to DINT Percent DDL variance due to DTRS 100 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 0 10 12 Percent DBOL varianc e due to DDL 10 12 Perc ent DBOL variance due to DBOL 10 12 Perc ent DBOL variance due to DEXR 20 10 12 Perc ent DBOL variance due to DINF 10 12 Perc ent DBOL variance due to DINT 100 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 0 10 12 Percent DEXR varianc e due to DDL 10 12 Perc ent DEXR variance due to DBOL 10 12 Perc ent DEXR variance due to DEXR 10 12 10 12 Perc ent DEXR variance due to DINT 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 10 12 Percent DINF varianc e due to DDL 10 12 Perc ent DINF variance due to DBOL 10 12 Perc ent DINF variance due to DEXR 10 12 10 12 Perc ent DINF variance due to DINT 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 10 12 Percent DINT varianc e due to DDL 10 12 Perc ent DINT variance due to DBOL 10 12 Perc ent DINT variance due to DEXR 10 12 10 12 Perc ent DINT variance due to DINT 100 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 10 12 Percent DTRS varianc e due to DDL 10 12 Perc ent DTRS variance due to DBOL 100 80 80 60 60 40 20 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 Perc ent DTRS variance due to DINT 100 100 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 10 12 20 Perc ent DTRS variance due to DTRS 80 Perc ent DTRS variance due to DINF 20 100 h 100 80 Perc ent DTRS variance due to DEXR 100 0 12 Perc ent DINT variance due to DTRS 100 10 Perc ent DINT variance due to DINF 20 Perc ent DINF variance due to DTRS 100 Perc ent DINF variance due to DINF 12 20 10 Perc ent DEXR variance due to DTRS 100 Perc ent DEXR variance due to DINF 20 Perc ent DBOL variance due to DTRS 10 12 Variance decomposition with Table 73 10 12 Variance decomposition with combined graph Variance Decomposition using Cholesky (d.f adjusted) Factors Variance Decomposition of 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