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VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE ANH THU h A TANDEM QUEUEING MODEL TO OPTIMIZE THE EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES MASTER'S THESIS VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY LE ANH THU h A TANDEM QUEUEING MODEL TO OPTIMIZE THE EFFICIENCY OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES MAJOR: Public Policy CODE: 8340402.01 RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Associate Prof PHUNG-DUC TUAN Hanoi, 2021 Acknowledgements Two years of studying at Vietnam Japan University passed quickly I am very honored and proud to have been a part of the 4th Intake of the Public Policy Program under Vietnam Japan University Thanks to Vietnam Japan University, I was able to experience an international learning environment where I met many interesting friends and excellent professors During the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, 4th Intake students had to face many difficulties, especially the cancellation of our internship at the University of Tsukuba But, when one door closes, another opens The experience at Vietnam Japan University would be the best memory of my life First of all, I would like to express my most profound appreciation to my supervisor, Assoc Prof Phung-Duc Tuan from the University of Tsukuba for his kindness, patience, and support during the whole process of my study Thanks to his enthusiastic encouragement, I chose a completely new and challenging thesis topic This forced me to cultivate new knowledge and skills, and above all, meticulousness h I would like to thank Dr Dang Quang Vinh for giving me the opportunity to intern at Center Institute for Economic and Management - CIEM Furthermore, I greatly appreciate the kind support of Dr Vinh for helping me to collect the data for this research I also would like to thank Vinh Phuc Provincial Public Administration Service Center for providing this data Besides, I would like to extend my gratitude to Dr Nguyen Thuy Anh, Dr Vu Hoang Linh and Prof Naohisa Okamoto, and Ms Pham Thi Lan Huong for their support I would like to express my deep gratitude to my dear friend Mr Vu Ngoc Quang, who supported me in using Python for this research In addition, I would like to thank Mr Nguyen Quoc Hung for sharing his valuable experience My heartfelt gratitude goes to my family for always being by my side and supporting me throughout the last two years Finally, thanks also to all 4th Intake students who have been a part of my student life Contents Acknowledgements List of Tables i List of Figures ii List of Abbreviations iii INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research context 1.2 Research objective and research question 1.3 Method and Methodology 1.4 Research structure 1 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Public administration services 2.2 Tandem queueing model 5 RESEARCH METHOD AND METHODOLOGY 3.1 M/M/c queues & Markov Chain 3.2 Description of the two-step public service model 3.3 Simulation Scenarios 3.3.1 Scenario - Specify the maximum response time for each step of public administrative services 3.3.2 Scenario - Specify the maximum response time for the entire execution of public administrative services 3.3.3 Scenario - Classify dossiers in step based on its complexity 3.4 Data 3.4.1 Re-issue certificate of origin (C/O) 3.4.2 Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service 9 11 12 RESEARCH FINDING 4.1 Scenario - Specify the maximum response time for each step of public administrative services 4.1.1 Re-issue certificate of origin (C/O) 4.1.2 Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service 4.2 Scenario - Specify the maximum response time for the entire execution of public administrative services 27 h 12 13 17 25 25 25 27 27 30 31 4.3 Scenario - Classify dossiers in step based on its complexity 33 CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, RESEARCH LIMINATIONS AND FURTHER STUDY 38 5.1 Conclusion and policy implications 38 5.2 Research limitations and further study direction 39 Bibliography 40 A Appendix: Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service Data 43 B Appendix: Source Code B.1 Source Code for Scenario & B.2 Source Code for Scenario 44 44 45 h List of Tables 3.1 System parameters in step of Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service 4.1 The average response time and the probability that the response time in step of the C/O service is greater than hour The average response time and the probability that the response time in step of the C/O service is greater than hours The average response time and the probability that the response time in step of Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service is greater than days The total average response time and the probability that the total response time in both steps of the C/O service is greater than hours 4.2 4.3 4.4 26 27 29 30 32 h i List of Figures 3.1 3.2 3.3 Queueing model Queueing model in Scenario Threshold policy for two multi-server queues 12 18 19 4.1 4.2 The average response time in step of the C/O service The probability that the response time in step of the C/O service is greater than hour The average response time in step of the C/O service The probability that the response time in step of the C/O service is greater than hours The average response time in step of Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service The average response time in both steps of the C/O service The probability that the total response time in both steps of the C/O service is greater than hours The mean queue length of Q1 against the Q2 ’s threshold (N) The mean queue length of Q2 against the Q2 ’s threshold (N) The total mean queue length of both queues against the Q2 ’s threshold (N) The mean queue length of Q1 against the arrival rate in Q1 The mean queue length of Q2 against the arrival rate in Q1 The total mean queue length of both queues against the arrival rate in Q1 The mean queue length of Q1 against the arrival rate in Q2 The mean queue length of Q2 against the arrival rate in Q2 The total mean queue length of both queues against the arrival rate in Q2 28 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 30 31 32 33 33 34 h 4.8 4.9 4.10 28 29 34 35 35 35 36 36 37 ii List of Abbreviations C/O GDP ICTs JCER PAR QBD NPM Certificate of Origin Gross Domestic Product Information and Communication Technologies The Japan Center for Economic Research Public Administration Reform Quasi-Birth-and-Death process New Public Management h iii Chapter INTRODUCTION 1.1 Research context In recent years, citizens’ satisfaction with public services has emerged as a focus of research and a major subject of the governmental interest This is reflected in the general objective of the Public Administration Reform (PAR Master Plan) as stipulated in Decision 225/QD-TTg, dated February 04, 2016, "Approving the state administrative reform for the period 2016-2020", and Resolution No.18-NQ/TW dated October 25, 2017, "A number of issues on the continued renewal and organizational structure of the political system, streamlining, effective and efficient operation" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam The improvement of civil servants is one of the four components of the PAR Master Program By 2020, the goal was to have a reasonable number of cadres and civil servants who were professional and capable of performing their public duties Another aim was to restructure the salary system so that cadres and civil servants would be paid enough to maintain a minimum decent living standard h Despite some progress toward this lofty goal, PAR progress has been slow, and PAR has been implemented less effectively and inconsistently than planned It is a fact that PAR effects have failed to meet the aim of establishing a democratic, effective, clean, modernized, and professionalized administration by 2020 Vietnam’s GDP per capita increased 2.7 times between 2002 and 2018, reaching over US$ 2,700 in 2019, with more than 45 million people fleeing poverty The poverty rate fell dramatically from moreover 70% to less than 6% between 2002 and 2019 according to the World Bank [1] The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) [2] has released the Mid-Term Asia Economic Forecast report, which forecasts that Vietnam may become a high-middle-income country by 2023 and will surpass Taiwan in GDP terms by 2035 However, as Vietnam approaches middle-income status, it will confront additional obstacles such as the scaling down of development funding, increasing citizen expectations, and having to compete worldwide with other middle-income countries What additional reforms are required to ensure that the Vietnamese civil service will be fit for purpose in managing the country’s economy, its people and resources to secure the country’s longterm prosperity? The development of civil service reform policies needs to be founded on real analysis and understanding of the socio-political context as well as the intended pace of reform The government has already made considerable efforts to respond to the new social challenges A notable effort is implementing e-government through the launch of the Vietnam National Public Services Portal in December 2019 The Prime Minister asked ministries, state agencies, and localities to focus on increasing the ratio of public services to levels and to ensure the completion of the targets in Resolution 01/NQ-CP dated 2021, "On main tasks and solutions for the implementation of the socio-economic development plan and state budget estimate of 2021" In which Public Services Level are online public services allowing users to fill out and submit documents, level is the highest level of an online public service with payment features added (The Ministry of Information and Communications [3]) However, even if the goal of providing 100% of public services at level is achieved, there are still many problems with service quality h Some public services on the National Public Service Portal have regulations on maximum response time in each step of the implementation process, such as "Procedures for adjusting the contents of the issued Certificate of registration for the provision of inspection, calibration, and testing services," "Procedures for canceling customs declaration," etc Nevertheless, these regulations are set mainly on the basis of experience and qualitative measurement to ensure the achievement of objectives in the PAR plans The reallocation of workers in an administrative office is also based on the quotas and the targets in these plans It raises the question of whether the maximum response time and the number of employees under existing regulations are optimal? This thesis aims to answer this question and propose a new approach for measuring public service efficiency, thereby recommending solutions to improve the quality of public service F IGURE 4.11: The mean queue length of Q1 against the arrival rate in Q1 h F IGURE 4.12: The mean queue length of Q2 against the arrival rate in Q1 F IGURE 4.13: The total mean queue length of both queues against the arrival rate in Q1 Figure 4.11, Figure 4.12, and Figure 4.13 illustrate how the mean queue length of Q1 and Q2 changes according to the arrival rate in Q1 when K and N are fixed.It is clear 35 that the mean queue length of two queues is large when customers of either queue arrive more frequently, especially when the arrival rate is between 25 and 32 If the arrival rate in Q1 increases, Q1 will decline to accept customers from Q2 , so the mean queue length of Q2 will increase F IGURE 4.14: The mean queue length of Q1 against the arrival rate in Q2 h F IGURE 4.15: The mean queue length of Q2 against the arrival rate in Q2 36 F IGURE 4.16: The total mean queue length of both queues against the arrival rate in Q2 Figure 4.14, Figure 4.15, and Figure 4.16 reflect changes in the mean queue length of two queues against the arrival rate in Q2 when K and N are fixed Due to the policy that allows customers to transfer from Q2 to Q1 , the arrival rate of Q2 has an impact on the number of customers in Q1 If Q2 customers arrive more frequently, the average number of customers in both queues is large However, when the arrival rate in Q2 reaches a certain threshold, the average number of customers in each queue will stop growing h because Q2 will not accept customers 37 Chapter CONCLUSION, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, RESEARCH LIMINATIONS AND FURTHER STUDY 5.1 Conclusion and policy implications This thesis studies a two-step public service based on the tandem queueing model to find solutions for resource allocation in administrative agencies Based on the characteristics of two-step public services, the thesis proposes and analyzes three scenarios The results of the first two scenarios have implied that specifying a maximum response time in each step reduces the probability that an arriving customer has to wait more than the allotted time Therefore, policymakers and managers should consider dividing work into several steps and specifying the maximum response time for each of these steps In addition, specifying a maximum response time for each step encourages citizens to perform their monitoring function Due to the distinctive characteristics of public administration, this regulation can contribute to improving the transparency and efficiency of public services h For Vinh Phuc Business Registration Service, the actual number of employees is lower than the minimum value for the system to be stable, so an additional employee is required to ensure all work is completed This thesis provides a solution to measure average response time and the probability of response time as well as the number of employees required in each step of public services It can be considered as a quantitative solution to evaluate the effectiveness of public services The third scenario considers step 2, where dossiers are divided into two categories according to their complexity This system allows dossiers to be moved unidirectionally from Q2 to Q1 based on thresholds Using the Matrix Geometric method, this paper derives the average number of customers in each queue when the Q1 ’s threshold (K) and Q2 ’s thresholds (N) are fixed These results show that the average number of customers in Q1 and Q2 depend more on N than K From these, the optimal threshold values depending on the condition of average waiting time are given In addition, based on the effect of the arrival rate on the queue length, we have a basis for reallocating resources when the customer arrival rate changes 38 5.2 Research limitations and further study direction Although being put so many efforts, many limitations still exist Firstly, the thesis examines public service, which is assumed to consist of two main steps However, public services involve more complex steps, and each employee has to handle multiple responsibilities Therefore, future studies will consider models that include more steps; labor costs and service fees will be included Secondly, the thesis has not considered the case where the application must be supplemented Hence, the model will be developed by assuming that if dossiers not meet the requirements after being screened in step 1, these dossiers will be returned and requested to be finalized, and then start all over Thirdly, due to the characteristics of the public service, it is not easy to acquire appropriate data The availability of public service data will make the study more meaningful Finally, it seems to be a challenging task to analyze the case when both capacities in the two queues are infinite in the last scenario h 39 Bibliography [1] The World Bank, "Vietnam 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Code B.1 Source Code for Scenario & import pandas as pd from matplotlib import pyplot as plt import math def factorial (n): if n == 0: return return n * factorial (n − 1) def sigma(start , end , parameter ): sum = for n in range (start , end + 1): sum += pow(parameter , n) / factorial (n) return sum MU = float ( input (’enter_a_value :’)) t = float ( input (’enter_a_value :’)) list_c = [] list_Et = [] list_Po = [] list_Pr = [] list_LAMBDA = [ float ( input (’enter_a_value :’)), float (input (’enter_a_value :’))] h for LAMBDA in list_LAMBDA : for c in range (1, 50): RHO = LAMBDA /(c * MU) if == RHO: continue Po = 1/( sigma (0, c − 1, ( LAMBDA /MU)) + pow( LAMBDA /MU , c)/((1 − LAMBDA /(c * MU)) # The average waiting time in the system E[W] = 1/MU + Po * pow( LAMBDA /MU , c)/(c * MU * pow ((1 * − factorial (c))) RHO ),2) * factorial (c)) # The probability that the response time exceeds the allotted time t Pr = Po * RHO /(1 − RHO) * pow( LAMBDA /MU , c − 1)/ factorial (c − 1) * pow(math.e,( RHO − 1) * c * MU * t) if RHO
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