(Luận Văn) Determinants Of Secondary School Dropout In Viet Nam

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, HO CHI MINH CITY ep hi ng n w NGO HOANG THAO TRANG d a lo y th yi ju pl n ua al DETERMINANTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL va n DROPOUT IN VIET NAM t n oi m ll fu z z jm ht vb MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY THESIS k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th HO CHI MINH CITY - 2010 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS, HO CHI MINH CITY FULBRIGHT ECONOMICS TEACHING PROGRAME ng ep hi n w NGO HOANG THAO TRANG d a lo y th yi ju pl n ua al DETERMINANTS OF SECONDARY SCHOOL n va DROPOUT IN VIET NAM m ll fu n oi Public Policy Major t Code: 603114 z z vb jm ht MASTER OF PUBLIC POLICY THESIS k an Lu Dr JONATHAN R PINCUS om l.c gm SUPERVISOR n va y te re th HO CHI MINH CITY - 2010 CERTIFICATION ep hi ng I certify that the substance of the thesis has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degrees I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing the n w d a lo thesis and all sources used have been acknowledged in the thesis y th The study does not necessarily reflect the views of the Ho Chi Minh City ju yi Economics University or Fulbright Economics Teaching Program pl n ua al Author n va n oi m ll fu t Ngo Hoang Thao Trang z z jm ht vb k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ep hi ng I would like to express my deep gratitude to my parents who always encourages me in my life and my studying I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my supervisor, Dr Jonathan R n w d a lo Pincus, who has help me in performing the thesis With rich knowledge, experience y th and enthusiasm, he has effectively contributed to my thesis ju yi I am graceful to Dr Nguyen Hoang Bao, Mr Nguyen Xuan Lam for thoughtful pl n ua al and valuable comments on the early version of my work I would like to thank all teachers in Fulbright Economics Teaching Program, who va n have retransmitted a lot of their knowledge and experience to me m ll fu Last but not least, I express my thanks to all of my friends who help and motivate t n oi me in performing the study z z vb Ngo Hoang Thao Trang jm ht Ho Chi Minh City - May, 2010 k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th ABSTRACT ep hi ng The study examines the effects of individual, household, community, and regional level on the dropout behavior of the child in secondary school in Vietnam by using the logistic regression model The results of the empirical model n w d a lo confirmed age, working hours per year, education of parents, regions have large y th effects on the probability of leaving school Meanwhile, household expenditure, the ju yi number of siblings, the proportion of pupils with reduced contributions, the pupil to pl n ua al teacher ratio, the pupil to classrooms ratio and the proportion of classrooms with good blackboards have small effects on the probability of leaving school Therefore, va n an effective policy recommendation to reduce the dropout rate in secondary schools m ll fu in Vietnam is to focus on investing more human capital in the present generation as n oi well as supporting the important role of parent in education, reducing working t z hours per year of children and concentrating on the Mekong Delta and South East z jm ht vb Key words: School dropout; secondary school k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th ABBREVIATIONS ng GSO: General Statistic Office ep hi MOLISA: Ministry Of Labor –Invalids and Social Affairs VHLSS: Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey n w d a lo y th yi ju pl n ua al n va t n oi m ll fu z z jm ht vb k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam CONTENTS ep hi ng CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION……………………………………….….…… 01 1.1 Problem statement…………………………………………………….….…… 01 1.2 The scope and the purpose of the study….…………………………… ……….02 n w d a lo 1.3 Research questions of the study ……………………………………… ………03 y th 1.4 The structure of the study………….………………………………….……… 03 ju yi CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………… ………… 04 pl n ua al 2.1 Concepts …………………………………………………………… …………04 2.2 Theoretical background ……………………………………………… ……… 05 va n 2.2.1 Demand for education…………………………………………… ……… 05 m ll fu 2.2.2 Education production function………………………………… …………08 n oi 2.3 The framework of determinants of the dropout … …… ……………… ……08 t z 2.4 Empirical studies of school leaving in Viet Nam……… …………… ……… 16 z jm ht vb 2.5 Conclusion …………………………………………………………….……… 19 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW OF SECONDARY SCHOOL IN VIET NAM ….20 k gm 3.1 Schooling trends and dropouts from secondary school in Vietnam…………….20 om l.c 3.2 Analyzing opportunities to access secondary school in Vietnam… ……… …23 n va CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY AND ANALYTICAL an Lu 3.3 Conclusion……………….… ….……………………………………………….26 th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam y 4.2 Methodology……………………………………………………………… … 28 te 4.1 Data………… ………………………………………………………………… 27 re FRAMEWORK…………………………………………………… …………… 27 (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam 4.3 Empirical model…………………………………………………………………30 4.4 Variables in the empirical model………………… ………………… ………30 ng ep hi 4.5 Conclusion …………………… ……………………………………………….36 CHAPTER 5: ANALYZING DETERMINANTS OF DROPOUT SECONDARY n w SCHOOL IN VIETNAM………………………………………………… ………37 a lo d 5.1 Descriptive statistics………………… ……………………………………… 37 y th yi ju 5.2 Regression results………………… ………………………………………… 43 pl 5.3 Interpretation and discussion………………….……………… ……………….45 n ua al 5.4 Scenario analysis………………………………………………………… ……50 va n 5.5 Conclusion…………….… …………………………………………………… 56 fu n oi m ll CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION………… ……………………………………… 57 6.1 Conclusion………… … ………………………………………………………57 t 6.2 Policy recommendations…………… …………………………………………58 z z jm REFERENCES ht vb 6.3 Limitations of the study.…………………………………………………………60 k om l.c gm APPENDIX an Lu n va y te re th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam LIST OF TABLES ep hi ng Table 5.1: Logistic regression of school dropout as a function of selected individual, household, school and demographic characteristics, and the children sample aged 11-18, VHLSS 2006……………………………………………………………… 43 n w d a lo Table 5.2: Marginal effects of the probability of dropping out…… ……………44 y th Table 5.3: Predicted dropout probabilty of children by education level of ju yi parents…………………………………………………………………… ……….52 pl hours working per n ua al Table 5.4: Predicted probability of dropping out by year…………………………………………………………………………………54 va n Table 5.5: Predicted probability of dropping out by region……………………… 55 t n oi m ll fu z z jm ht vb k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Number of pupils in secondary school in Vietnam from 1999- ep hi ng 2006… 21 Figure 3.2: Secondary education dropout and repeat rate, 1999 – 2004 …… ……22 n w d a lo Figure 3.3 Secondary education dropout and repeat quantities, 1994-2004….… 22 y th Figure 5.1: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by gender and by age…………… 38 ju Figure 5.2: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by hours working per year…………39 yi pl Figure 5.3: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by household expenditure…………39 n ua al Figure 5.4: Dropout rate in Vietnam in 2006, by parent educational level ………40 va n Figure 5.5: Dropout rate of Vietnam in 2006, by urban and regions………………42 fu n oi m ll Figure 5.6: Conditional effect plot of dropout probability according to educational level of parents…………………………………………………………………… 53 t z Figure 5.7: Conditional effect plot of dropout probability according to hours z jm ht vb working per year………………………………………………………………… 54 Figure 5.8: Conditional effect plot of dropout probability by regions …… ……55 k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam Appendix 10: Educational expenditure for each level ep hi ng n w 1998 100% 73,30% 5,40% 35,27% 19,38% 8,33% 4,92% 26,29% 3,79% 4,80% 12,43% 0,81% 4,86% Total Education expenditure items Kindergarten Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Others Training items Vocation Intermediate College and university Higher level Others Source MOET (2002) d a lo y th yi ju pl n ua al 2000 100% 75,86% 6,71% 32,17% 20,44% 10,02% 6,52% 24,14% 3,06% 3,54% 9,27% 0,45% 7,82% 2001 100% 76,01% 6,97% 32,71% 20,32% 11,02% 4,99% 23,99% 3,30% 3,22% 9,58% 0,48% 7,40% 2002 100% 77,68% 6,97% 31,61% 21,32% 10,40% 7,39% 22,32% 3,24% 2,86% 9,71% 0,46% 6,05% m ll fu expenditure in 2002 n va Appendix 11: Educational benefit range from Government Educational t n oi % Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Very poor 31 20 Poor 23 23 16 Average 18 23 22 Rather rich 15 20 28 Rich 13 14 26 Source: The General Report of Vietnam and World Bank (2005) “ Vietnam managing public expenditure for growth and poverty reduction” z z jm ht vb k om l.c gm an Lu n va y te re th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam Appendix 12: Individual, household and school variable descriptive statistic Mean Std Dev Min Max n w 0.387 0.499 13.927 2.481 0.500 2.042 5.917 11 18 36 23.530 0.325 0.106 0.021 2.344 15.140 0.468 0.308 0.143 1.093 0.204 1.979 28.788 16.774 23.648 39.169 88.641 0.164 2.268 32.408 23.176 9.247 6.359 23.797 0 0 4,917 11,846 1.241 32 100 100 86.456 59.438 100 20.815 100 16.150 100 0 0 0 0 0 96.875 1 1 1 1 d a lo 0.184 z ep hi ng Variables Dependent variable Dropout Independent variables Individual characteristics Gender Age Hour working per year (hundred hours) Household characteristics Expenditure (million VND/year) Lower secondary level of parents Upper secondary level of parents Higher level of parents Number of children (unit) School characteristics Cost of schooling (million VND) Distance to school (km) Proportion of reduced fee (%) Proportion of reduced contribution (%) Student-teacher ratio (%) Student –classroom ratio (%) Proportion of classroom with good blackboards (%) Proportion of teachers less years experience (%) Proportion of teachers from to 10 years experience (%) y th yi ju pl n ua al n va t n oi m ll fu z 31.480 jm ht vb om l.c an Lu n va y te re 20.883 0.193 0.145 0.343 0.369 0.396 0.337 0.298 0.311 0.398 gm 34.379 0.961 0.021 0.136 0.163 0.195 0.131 0.098 0.109 0.197 4369 k Proportion of teachers over 10 years % University level of head master Higher level of head master Urban Red River Northern Mountain North Central Coast South Central Coast South East Mekong Delta Sample 34.489 3,379 395.064 1 (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam th Source: Calculation from the data of the author (n=4369, VHLSS 2006) (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam Appendix 13: Test relationship between gender and dropout ng ep hi Case Processing Summary Cases Missing N Percent n w Valid N Percent a lo dropout * gender d 4369 100,0% Total N Percent ,0% 4369 100,0% y th yi ju pl Count % within gender Count % within gender Count % within gender n va gender 1825 1741 83,4% 79,8% 362 441 16,6% 20,2% 2187 2182 100,0% 100,0% n ua al dropout dropout * gender Crosstabulation t n oi m ll fu Total Total 3566 81,6% 803 18,4% 4369 100,0% Chi-Square Tests z z Asymp Sig Exact Sig Exact Sig (2-sided) (2-sided) (1-sided) ,002 ht df vb Value 9,745(b) jm Pearson Chi-Square Continuity 9,503 ,002 Correction(a) Likelihood Ratio 9,758 ,002 Fisher's Exact Test ,002 ,001 Linear-by-Linear 9,743 ,002 Association N of Valid Cases 4369 a Computed only for a 2x2 table b cells (,0%) have expected count less than The minimum expected count is 401,04 k om l.c gm an Lu n va y th (Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam(Luận.Văn).Determinants.Of.Secondary.School.Dropout.In.Viet.Nam te re Ho: There has no relationship between dropout and gender Pearson Chi Square=9,745 => Asymp.Sig=0,002 Asymp.Sig=0,000 Asymp.Sig=0,000 Asymp.Sig=0,018 Asymp.Sig=0,0005%  variance of groups is not different T-test =-2,256  sig=0,0245%  variance of groups is different T-test =4,439  sig=0,0005%  variance of groups is not different T-test =1.691  sig=0.0915%  variance of groups is not different T-test =-0.027  sig=0.978>5%  there is no difference having statistic significance about mean pupil classroom ratio between dropout group and not dropout group  Proportion classrooms with good blackboards k om l.c gm an Lu n va Ho: There has no difference of mean proportion classrooms with good blackboards between dropout group and not dropout group Levene’s test = 5.273  sig =0.022 Asymp.Sig=0,002 Asymp.Sig=0,002