What Is Natural? Other Books by the Author Beyond the Gene Evolution by Association Where the Truth Lies What Is Natural? Coral Reef Crisis Jan Sapp NEW YORK OXFORD OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 1999 Oxford University Press Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bogota Buenos Aires Calcutta Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi Paris Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto Warsaw associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Copyright © 1999 by Jan Sapp Published by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without prior permission of Oxford University Press Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Sapp, Jan What is natural? : coral reef crisis / Jan Sapp p cm Includes index ISBN 0-19-512364-6 Crown-of-thorns starfish Coral reef ecology Coral reef ecology—Research I Title QL384.A8S27 1999 577.7'89—dc21 98-4634 735798642 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper For my mother, Susan Atkinson Sapp This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS Acknowledgments ix Introduction xi Green Island Guam, 1968-1969 13 The War of the Worlds 35 Under Capricorn 49 Crown-of-thorns Inquisition 65 A Tree Fell in the Forest 77 Knowledge and Action 95 Oceans Apart 115 Remote Control 127 10 Complexity and Stability 141 11 Cyclical Outcries 163 12 Crossroads 175 13 Coral Bleaching and Global Warming 189 14 Cassandra and the Seastar 203 Notes 217 Index 267 This page intentionally left blank ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am grateful for the generosity of many coral reef scientists who lent valuable time in interviews, engaged in correspondence, helped to clarify my thinking, and provided me with a diversity of literature: Charles Birkeland, Roger Bradbury, David Challinor, Richard Chesher, Lu Eldredge, Udo Engelhardt, William Fitt, Peter Glynn, Richard Grigg, Jeremy Jackson, Robert Johannes, Richard Kenchington, Joshua Lederberg, John Lucas, Ernst Mayr, Eric Mills, William Newman, John Ogden, David Pawson, James Porter, Donald Potts, Ira Rubinoff, Stephen Smith, Clive Wilkinson, and Jeremy Woodley I have also greatly benefited from comments from those who read one or all draft chapters and helped me see ways to make this a better book: Roger Bradbury, Chuck Birkeland, Richard Chesher, Bob Johannes, Jeff Levinton, John Lucas, Tim McClanahan, and John Ogden I also thank Chuck Birkeland for photographs of the crown-of-thorns in Micronesia Peter Glynn provided the photographs of coral bleaching and the painted shrimp John Ogden supplied photographs of Diadema The picture of the triton eating the crown-of-thorns was taken by Johnston Davidson For the photographs of the crown-of-thorns in outbreak conditions in Australia, I am most grateful to Peter Moran, and the Australian Institute of Marine Science I also thank Kirk Jensen and Helen Mules for their editorial expertise Last and most important, I thank my wife, Carole, and my children, Will and Elliot for their support This project was partly supported by a grant from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada Notes to Chapter 13 261 topher F D'Elia, Robert W Buddemeier, and Stephen V Smith, eds., "Workshop on Coral Bleaching, Coral Reef Ecosystems and Global Change: Report of Proceedings," A Maryland Sea Grant College Publication Um-SG-TS-91-03, 1991, 29 28 Hulm and Pernetta, Reefs at Risk, 1529 Ibid See also Sue Wells and Alasdair Edwards, "Gone with the Waves," New Scientist, November 11 (1989):47-81; John Connell and John Lea, "My Country Will not be There," Cities, November (1982): 295-309 30 For some strong examples of such views, see Warren T Brookes, "The Global Warming Panic," Forbes, December 25 (1989):96-102; Ben Bolch and Harold Lyons, Apocalypse Not: Science, Economics and Environmentalism (Washington, D.C.: CATO Institute, 1993) 31- P D Jones, and T M L Wigley, "Global Warming Trends," Scientific American, August (1990):84—91; E Friis-Christensen and K Lassen, "Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate," Science 254 (1991): 698-700; G C Reid, "Solar Total Irradiance Variations and the Global Sea Surface Temperature Record," Journal of Geophysical Research 96 (1991): 2835-44 32 Robert Jastrow, William Nierenberg, and Frederick Seitz, Scientific Perspectives on the Greenhouse Problem (Ottawa, 111.: The Marshall Press, 1990); Aaron Wildavsky, But Is It True? A Citizen's Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995), 340-73 33 Philip Anderson, "Uncertainties about Global Warming," Science 247 (1990):1529 34 Brown and Ogden, "Coral Bleaching," 64 35 See E.H Williams Jr and Lucy Bunkley-Williams, "The World-Wide Coral Reef Bleaching Cycle and Related Sources of Coral Mortality," Atoll Research Bulletin 335 (1990):1-71; 36 Barbara E Brown, ed., "Coral Bleaching." Special Issue of Coral Reefs (1990) 37 E F Hollings, (Chair) 1988 "Bleaching of Coral Reefs in the Caribbean Oral and Written Testimony to the Commerce, Justice, States, Judiciary, and Related Agencies, Appropriations Subcommittee, U.S.A Senate," 10 November, 1987 Cited in Williams and Bunkley-Williams, "The World-Wide Coral Reef Bleaching Cycle," 1; Leslie Roberts, "Warm Waters, Bleached Corals," Science 1^\ (1990):12 38 Christopher F D'Elia, Robert W Buddemeier, and Stephen V Smith, "Workshop on Coral Bleaching, Coral Reef Ecosystems and Global Change: Report of Proceedings," A Maryland Sea Grant College Publication Um-SG-TS-91-03, 1991, 3-4 39 See Peter W Glynn, "Coral Reef Bleaching in the 1980s and Possible Connections with Global Warming," Trends in Ecology and Evolution (1991): 175—78; 176 By 1996, Glynn argued that present evidence indi- 262 Notes to Chapter 13 cated that large-scale coral beaching was largely due to elevated sea temperatures and high solar irradiance (especially ultraviolet wavelengths) Glynn, "Coral Reef Bleaching: Facts, Hypotheses, and Implications." 40 Hulm and Pernetta, eds., Reefs at Risk, 21 See also Leslie Roberts, "Corals Remain Baffling," Science IV) (1988):256 41 Roberts, "Warm Waters, Bleached Corals." 42 Thomas J Goreau, "Coral Bleaching in Jamaica," Nature 343 (1990):417 See also Thomas J Goreau, Raymond Hayes, Jenifer Clark, Daniel J Basta, and Craig Robertson, "Elevated Sea Surface Temperatures Correlate with Caribbean Coral Bleaching," in Richard A Geyer, ed., A Global Warming Forum: Scientific, Economic, and Legal Overview (Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1993), 225-55 43 P J Jokiel and S L Coles, "Responses of Hawaiian and other Indo-Pacific Reef Corals to Elevated Temperature," Coral Reefs (1990):155-62; 161 44 Lucy Bunkley-Williams and Ernest H Williams, Jr., "Global Assault on Coral Reefs," Natural History (1990): 47-54; 52 45 Ibid., 54 46 E H Williams, Jr and Lucy Bunkley-Williams, "The World-Wide Coral Reef Bleaching Cycle and Related Sources of Coral Mortality," Atoll Research Bulletin 335 (1990) 1-71; 47 Bunkley-Williams and Williams, "Global Assault on Coral Reefs," 54 48 See D.W Kinsey, "The Greenhouse Effect and Coral Reefs," Pacific Science 46 (1992):375-76; 376 See also Stephanie Pain, "Coral Reefs Will Thrive in the Greenhouse," New Scientist, March 3, 1990, p 30 49 D'Elia, Buddemeier, and Smith, "Workshop on Coral Bleaching, Coral Reef Ecosystems and Global Change: Report of Proceedings," 50 Ibid., 20 51 Ibid., 21 52 To develop greater spatial and temporal coverage, some examined remotely sensed SST databases But these also resulted in conflicting conclusions, due to a variety of underlying asumptions and degree of accuracy of measurements This conflict was especially evident in regard to the 1987 Caribbean mass bleaching event See D K Atwood, J C Hendee, A Mendez "An Assessment of Global Warming Stress on Caribbean Coral Reef Ecosystems," Bulletin of Marine Science 51 (1992):! 18-30 Goreau et al., "Elevated Sea Surface Temperatures Correlate with Caribbean Coral Reef Bleaching." 53 D'Elia, Buddenmeier, and Smith, "Workshop on Coral Bleaching: Coral Reef Ecosystems and Global Change," 44 54 Ibid., 45 55 Ibid., 21 56 Ibid., 10 57 Ibid., How resilient were coral reefs to bleaching events? How long would recovery take? How much bleaching and how frequently did it have to Notes to Chapter 13 263 occur before it caused local extinctions? The effects of repeated bleaching could be investigated using models that had been constructed to investigate the same questions in regard to damage caused by the crown-of-thorns on the Great Barrier Reef See T J Done, "Simulation of the Effects of Acanthaster planci on the Population Structure of Massive Corals in the Genus Porites: Evidence of Population Resilience?" Coral Reefs (1987): 75-90 58 D'Elia, Buddemeier, and Smith, "Workshop on Coral Bleaching, Coral Reef Ecosystems and Global Change: Report of Proceedings," 59 Ibid., 28 60 Ibid., 10 61 Ibid 62 Ibid 63 Constance Holden, ed., "Reef Bleaching Spreads in Caribbean," £«'