(Luận văn) determinants of economic growth in a panel of asean and developing countries

INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIET NAM THE NETHERLANDS t to UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS ng hi ep w VIET NAM –THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME n lo FOR MASTER OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS ad ju y th yi pl al n ua DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC n va ll fu GROWTH IN A PANEL OF ASIA PACIFIC oi m at nh COUNTRIES z z k jm ht vb FINAL THESIS an Lu n va Class: MDE-16 om Student: Tran Luu Quoc Vuong l.c gm Supervisor: Nguyen Hoang Bao ey t re th -HO CHI MINH CITY, DECEMBER 2013 t to APPENDICES ng hi ep A: List of chosen countries and territories in Asia Pacific Region 51 B: Scatterplot matrix of variables 52 C: Tests 53 w n lo ad y th ju LIST OF FIGURES yi 14 pl Figure 3.1 Conceptual framework of the study al 27 n ua Figure 4.1 Growth rate versus Level of Per capita GDP (simple relation) n va ll fu oi m 20 z Table 3.1 Summary of variables at nh LIST OF TABLES 29 Table 4.2 Correlation on the sample observations 30 z Table 4.1 Summary Statistic on the sample observations jm ht vb Table 4.3 Basic Cross-Country Growth Regression om 34 35 Table 4.8 Restricted Model (2) an Lu Table 4.7 Restricted Model (1) 33 l.c Table 4.6 Multicollinearity testing 32 gm Table 4.5 Basic Cross-Country Growth Regression (robust) k Table 4.4 Heteroskedasticity – White test 31 Table 4.9 Model Comparison 37 Table 4.10 Extended models 43 36 n va ey t re th ABBREVIATIONS t to ng hi ep : International Monetary Fund WB : World Bank UN : United Nations : Gross Domestic Products : Gross National Products w IMF n lo GDP ad ju R&D y th GNP : Research and Development yi : pl OECD The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to Table of Contents ng hi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ep w n 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Objectives of study 1.3 Research questions lo Scope of the research 1.5 Structure of the thesis ad 1.4 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL BACKGROUND yi 2.1 Theoretical background: 2.2 Empirical review 2.3 Summary 12 pl n ua al va CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13 n fu 3.1 Conceptual framework 13 3.2 Variables 14 ll oi m nh 3.2.1 Dependent variables 14 3.2.2 Explanatory variables 15 at z 3.3 Data 22 3.4 Econometric model 22 3.5 Summary 24 z k jm ht vb gm ju y th CHAPTER 4: DATA ANALYSIS .26 l.c Growth rate and convergence 26 4.2 Descriptive analysis 27 4.3 Regression Results for Growth rates 30 om 4.1 an Lu 4.3.3 The Determinants of Growth rate 39 4.3.4 The extended models 42 Summary 44 th 4.4 ey Hypothesis tests 32 t re 4.3.2 n Basic Regression 30 va 4.3.1 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries t to Thesis Proposal CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 45 ng Main findings and policy implications 45 5.2 Limitation of the research and Recommendation for further studies 45 hi 5.1 ep REFERENCES 48 w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to ng CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION hi 1.1 Problem statement ep Nowadays, there are over 200 countries on over the world with different w institutions, with different growth rates These growth rates vary hugely across n lo countries and between developing countries to developed countries According to ad recent surveys of many international organizations (IMF, WB, UN and so on), de- y th ju veloping countries and economies in transition continue to register much stronger yi growth than developed economies pl ua al After the end of the World War II, the world started to recover economic and the growth became an important part of economic science Economists have n n va tried to apply other theories with a lot of empirical model to understand the process fu of economic growth and explain enormous differences in economic performance ll across countries In the early, economists used Keynesian theories to discuss about m oi the stability of the growth path Next, they focused on steady state growth rates nh at exogenously determined by technological progress After that, Solow (1956) and z Swan (1956) became the pioneers who enriched neoclassical economic growth z vb model, and followed by a lot of others From 1980s, economists developed growth k knowledge, innovation and human capital jm ht theory, which use endogenous economic growth model to evaluate the roles of gm Improvements of economic theories and hundreds of researches have pro- l.c vided acceptable explanation for a particular phenomenon of recent decades: the om great divergence in economic performance But, indeed, the income of underde- an Lu veloped economies, as a whole, are failing to catch up the income of the developed countries Realizing this inadequacy, economic growth studies have shifted their va n focus to find out the reason of this problems th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 ey (2000), Aghion and Howitt (1998), Kenny and Williams (2001), Temple (1999), t re There were a lot of researches discuss about this problem, such as: Solow Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to Bosworth and Collins (2003) and Rogers (2003) They identified main contribu- ng hi tions to the recent growth literature, especially relevant institution factors The ep main objects these economists aimed were developing countries in the Asian Pa- cific area They wanted to understand how recent developments in the growth lit- w n erature contribute to economic development of Asian Pacific countries lo ad In this study, the research examine the relationship between per capita y th growth rate to a set of quantifiable explanatory variables with a conditional con- ju vergence term: the growth rate rise when the initial level of real per capita GDP is yi pl low relative to the staring human capital and for given values of other policies, ua al institutions and national characteristic variables This research will use panel data n of 25 countries and territories of Asian Pacific region for the period of 1990 - 2010 va n This study use panel data approach and apply three-stage less squared re- fu ll gression to examine the determinants of the growth rate The regression, which m oi uses panel data, has many advantages with regards to typical cross-country regres- at nh sion that was advanced by Raftery (1995), Sala-i-Martin et al (2004) First, using panel data, we will eliminate constraint by limited number of countries available z z Second, this method allows addressing the inconsistency of empirical estimates vb ht This inconsistency appears with omitted country-specific effects correlated with l.c gm 1.2 Objectives of study k jm other regressors, or with endogenous variables which assumed to be exogenous This research will examine the relationship between per capita growth rate om and a set of quantifiable explanatory variables: human capital (education and an Lu health), policies, institution and national characteristics From empirical studies, for given initial levels of state variables (including physical and human capital), ey t re to GDP and the inflation rate In the case of the terms of trade and the extent of n ratio and negative relation to the fertility rate, the ratio of government consumption va the economic growth rates have positive relation to the rule of law, the investment th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to international openness, with fair movements, the growth will increase but the latter ng hi effect is surprisingly weak ep The research will define which factors affect to the growth rate of Asian w Pacific developing countries, including Vietnam It also extend to evaluate some n special countries, which have huge population size, such as: China, India; or de- lo ad veloped countries, such as Japan, Australia, Singapore and so on y th 1.3 Research questions ju yi This research aims at answering the following questions: pl ua al  The relationship between per capita growth rate and a set of quantifiable n explanatory variables? Which variables are significant ones to economic n va growth? ll fu  Intensity of impact of these factors to economic growth of the Asia Pacific oi at nh 1.4 Scope of the research m region? z The research focuses on examine the convergence hypothesis implies that z ht vb the growth rate of real per capita GDP would tend to be inversely related to the jm level of initial real per capita GDP, and the role of a set quantifiable explanatory k variables The chosen countries are 25 countries in Asian Pacific region, and some gm special countries which have huge population size (China, India) or specific char- l.c acteristics (Japan, Singapore) This research only examines in the period of 1985 - om 2010 because lacking of GDP data before 1980 for all countries in this region an Lu 1.5 Structure of the thesis th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 ey the scope of the research The rest of this research has four chapters Chapter two t re lems that the research need to examine with some major research questions and n structure as above: explain the reason why we choose this topic, identify the prob- va The research will be organized with five chapters The chapter one has Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to shows a brief view of theoretical background of growth model, from the neoclas- ng hi sical growth models to the endogenous growth models, and the role of trade and ep institutions on the growth rate as well A review of empirical studies makes clearly about results of different models when applying to explain recent developments w n In chapter three, we will highlight the research methodology, including con- lo ad ceptual framework and variable descriptions We will have a briefly discussion y th about the reason why we choose these variables, how to enter them into the equa- ju tions after introducing the general econometrics model Besides, the process out- yi pl line which we use to analyze data, is also mentioned in this chapter Chapter four ua al will show the regression results of the models We will analyze and get findings to n answer the questions in the chapter We also compare findings to results of other va n empirical studies And at chapter five, we resumes main findings and reevaluate ll fu factors which have significant influence to growth rate of an economy This chap- oi m ter also identifies the limitation and implications for further study at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to ng CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL BACKGROUND hi 2.1 Theoretical background: ep In the 1950s, growth theory was composed mainly of the neoclassical w model, developed by Ramsey (1928), Solow (1956), Swan (1956), Cass (1965) n lo and Koopmans (1965) One feature of this model is the convergence property with ad the characteristic of diminishing returns to capita in a closed economy, where tech- y th ju nological progress is assumed to be exogenous and there are same technical op- yi portunities across countries This theory said that, the predicted growth rate will pl higher with the lower starting level of real per capita gross domestic product ua al If all economies were naturally the same, except for their starting capital n n va intensities, the convergence would apply in an absolute sense; it means that, poorer fu economies typically grow faster per capita and tend thereby to catch up to the ll richer economies However, if they differ from a lot of factors, such as rate of birth, m oi willingness to work, technology accessing, government policies, the convergence nh at force applies only in a conditional sense The predicted growth rate will be higher z if the starting level of per capita GDP is low in relation to its long–run (steady z vb state) position For example, a poor country would not tend to grow rapidly if it k unfavorable or its saving rate is low jm ht also has a low long–term position which possibly because its public policies are gm But along the time has been changing, this model showed its own limitation l.c So, a new wave rose in economic growth theory Growth theorists of 1960s as- om sumed that technological progress is exogenous to the growth rate, will make the an Lu economy temporarily grows in short term but not in long term But, unfortunately, while endogenous factors, like as the saving rate and population growth, determine ey t re th explain everything but long-run growth Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 n cides the growth rate of the steady state Thus, we can use model of growth to va the steady state or ceteris paribus of an economy, the technological progress de- Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to  Romer, Paul M (1990) “Endogenous Technological Change,” Journal of ng hi Political Economy, 98, (October), part II, S71–S102 ep  Schumpeter, Joseph A (1934) “The Theory of Economic Development”, w Cambridge MA, Harvard University Press n lo  Solow, Robert M (1956) “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic ad Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, (February), 65–94 y th ju  Summers, R and A Heston, 1991, The Penn world table (Mark 5): An ex- yi panded set of international comparisons, 1950-1988 Quarterly Journal of pl ua al Economics, May, 327-368 n  Swan, Trevor W (1956) “Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation,” va n Economic Record, 32 (November), 334–361 fu ll  Uzawa, Hirofumi (1965) “Optimal Technical Change in an Aggregative m oi Model of Economic Growth,” International Economic Review, (January), at nh 18–31 z  Vikesh Gokal, Subrina Hanif (2004) “Relationship between Inflation and z k jm  World Bank Development Indicators ht vb Economic Growth,” Economics Department, Reserve Bank of Fiji, April om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 51 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to APPENDICES ng hi APPENDICEX A: List of Asia Pacific countries and territories ep LIST OF COUNTRIES AND TERRITORIES w n lo ad 14 Mongolia Bangladesh 15 Nepal 16 New Zealand 17 Pakistan 18 Papua New Guinea 19 Philippines 20 Singapore 21 Sri Lanka y th Bhutan ju Australia yi Brunei Darussalam China Fiji Hong Kong SAR, China India Indonesia 10 Japan 23 11 Lao PDR 24 Vanuatu 12 Macao SAR, China 25 Vietnam 13 Malaysia pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m Thailand at nh 22 z Tonga z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 52 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to APPENDICEX B: Scatterplot matrix of variables ng hi ep w growth n lo ad log_init_gdp y th 150 ju 100 pri_school yi pl 50 200 sec_school ua al 100 02 n expectancy va 015 n 01 fu log_fertility ll m oi 30 20 gov_share nh 10 at 400 z openness z 200 vb 50 ht jm investment k gm 05 152 50 100 1500 100 200 01 015 020 10 10 20 300 200 4000 l.c inflation 50 om an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 53 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to APPENDIX C: ng hi Appendix C.1: Basic Cross-Country Growth Regression ep reg growth p_log_init_gdp pri_school expectancy log_fertility p_gov_share w p_openness p_investment inflation cyear n lo ad SS df MS Number of obs = ju y th Source yi F( 9, pl 011161776 Residual 010025756 31 001240197 Prob > F 000323411 R-squared 3.83 = 0.0024 = 0.5268 n ua al Model 31) = 41 va Adj R-squared = 0.3894 n 000529688 Root MSE ll 021187532 40 fu Total = 01798 oi m nh Coef Std Err p_log_init_gdp -.052423 -3.78 0.001 pri_school -.0000761 0002161 -0.35 0.727 -.0005169 0003647 expectancy 3806465 3.557968 0.11 0.915 -6.875878 log_fertility -.1121092 0331433 -3.38 0.002 -.1797054 -.0445129 p_gov_share 0004222 000927 0.46 0.652 -.0014685 0023129 p_openness 0000179 0000535 0.34 0.740 -.0000911 p_investment 0002587 0009789 0.26 0.793 -.0017378 0022552 inflation -.052122 0465441 -1.12 0.271 -.1470492 0428053 cyear 0105059 0063167 1.66 0.106 -.0023771 _cons 2784087 1037485 2.68 0.012 0668122 4900051 P>t z z 0138569 t at growth [95% Conf Interval] -.0806843 -.0241618 k jm ht vb 7.637171 om l.c gm 000127 an Lu n va ey t re 0233888 th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 54 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to Appendix C.2: Basic Cross-Country Growth Regression (robust) ng hi reg growth p_log_init_gdp pri_school expectancy log_fertility p_gov_share ep p_openness p_investment inflation cyear, vce(robust) w n Number of obs = lo Linear regression ad ju y th F( 9, 31) = yi Prob > F 41 6.13 = 0.0001 pl R-squared = 0.5268 ua al Root MSE = 01798 n n va fu Coef RobustStd Err t p_log_init_gdp -.052423 0137314 pri_school -.0000761 0001879 -0.41 0.688 expectancy 3806465 3.509894 log_fertility -.1121092 0371288 -3.02 0.005 -.1878339 -.0363844 p_gov_share 0004222 0007607 0.56 0.583 -.0011292 0019737 p_openness 0000179 0000468 0.38 0.704 -.0000775 p_investment 0002587 001414 0.18 0.856 -.0026252 0031426 inflation -.052122 0552661 -0.94 0.353 -.1648379 060594 cyear 0105059 0053372 1.97 -.0003794 0213912 _cons 2784087 0996637 2.79 0.009 ll growth P>t [95% Conf Interval] -.0804285 -.0244176 nh -.0004594 0003072 0.11 0.914 -6.77783 7.539123 oi m -3.82 0.001 at z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm n va 0751431 4816742 an Lu 0.058 0001134 ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 55 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to Appendix C.3: Variable tests ng hi //significant test for expectancy variable ep reg growth expectancy w SS n Source df MS Number of obs = lo ad F( 1, y th Model ju 029515868 yi Residual 000317519 48) = 000317519 Prob > F 48 000614914 R-squared 50 0.52 = 0.4759 = 0.0106 pl ua al Adj R-squared = -0.0100 029833387 growth Coef expectancy 1.293174 1.799614 _cons 0321776 n Total 49 000608845 Root MSE = 0248 n va fu ll Std Err P>t m 0.72 oi [95% Conf Interval] 0.476 -2.325193 4.91154 0.252 -.0236197 0879748 at 1.16 nh 027751 t z z om l.c 0.4759 gm Prob > F = k 48) = 0.52 jm F( 1, ht ( 1) expectancy = vb test expectancy an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 56 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to //significant test for log_fertility variable ng hi reg growth log_fertility ep Source SS df MS Number of obs = w F( 1, n 48) = lo 000676218 000676218 Prob > F Residual 029157169 48 000607441 R-squared ad Model 50 1.11 = 0.2967 ju y th = 0.0227 yi Adj R-squared = 0.0023 pl 029833387 49 000608845 growth Coef Std Err Root MSE = 02465 n ua al Total n va t P>t [95% Conf Interval] _cons 6.58 0.000 00927 -.0523206 0163075 0423836 0796606 oi 0610221 -1.06 0.297 m ll fu log_fertility -.0180065 0170663 at nh k jm ht 48) = 1.11 vb F( 1, z ( 1) log_fertility = z test log_fertility 0.2967 om l.c gm Prob > F = an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 57 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to //significant test for p_log_init_gdp variable ng hi reg growth p_log_init_gdp ep Source SS df MS Number of obs = w F( 1, n 48) = lo 0037523 0037523 Prob > F Residual 026081087 48 000543356 R-squared ad Model ju y th 6.91 = 0.0115 = 0.1258 Adj R-squared = 0.1076 yi pl 029833387 49 000608845 Root MSE = 02331 n ua al Total 50 Std Err t n Coef va growth fu 0058962 _cons 0211835 [95% Conf Interval] -2.63 0.012 -.0273498 -.0036395 5.05 0.000 0643565 oi m 1069489 ll p_log_init_gdp -.0154946 P>t 1495412 at nh k om l.c gm 0.0115 jm Prob > F = ht 48) = 6.91 vb F( 1, z ( 1) p_log_init_gdp = z test p_log_init_gdp an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 58 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to reg p_log_init_gdp expectancy ng hi Source SS df MS Number of obs = ep F( 1, 5.4756652 n 10.1534406 lo w Model ad Residual 48) = 89.01 10.1534406 Prob > F 48 114076358 R-squared = 0.0000 = 0.6496 Adj R-squared = 0.6424 ju y th 15.6291058 49 yi Total 50 318961344 Root MSE = 33775 pl ua al Coef n p_log_init_gdp Std Err t va -231.2484 24.51151 _cons 7.086339 3779811 [95% Conf Interval] -9.43 0.000 -280.5321 -181.9648 n expectancy P>t fu ll 18.75 0.000 6.326357 7.846321 oi m nh df MS z SS z Source at reg p_log_init_gdp log_fertility Number of obs = vb 48) = 51.98 jm ht F( 1, 50 8.12543957 8.12543957 Prob > F Residual 7.50366628 48 156326381 R-squared k Model = 0.0000 gm = 0.5199 l.c 15.6291058 Std Err t Root MSE = 39538 P>t [95% Conf Interval] -2.524306 -1.42336 _cons 1487105 30.55 0.000 4.243405 4.542407 Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 th -7.21 0.000 ey 2737809 t re log_fertility -1.973833 n Coef .318961344 va p_log_init_gdp 49 an Lu Total om Adj R-squared = 0.5099 4.84141 59 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to ng hi reg expectancy log_fertility ep Source SS df MS Number of obs = w F( 1, n 48) = 109.82 lo 00013212 00013212 Prob > F Residual 000057749 48 1.2031e-06 R-squared ad Model ju y th = 0.0000 = 0.6958 Adj R-squared = 0.6895 yi pl 00018987 49 3.8749e-06 Root MSE = 0011 n ua al Total 50 Std Err t n Coef va expectancy fu 0079592 0007595 _cons 0112909 0004126 ll log_fertility P>t [95% Conf Interval] 0094864 27.37 0.000 0104614 0121204 oi m 10.48 0.000 0064321 at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 60 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to //significant test for pri_school variable ng hi reg growth pri_school ep Source SS df MS Number of obs = w F( 1, n 40) = lo 000270468 000270468 Prob > F Residual 02173119 40 00054328 R-squared ad Model 42 0.50 = 0.4845 ju y th = 0.0123 yi Adj R-squared = -0.0124 022001658 000536626 growth Coef t P>t [95% Conf Interval] pri_school 0001707 0002419 0.71 0.485 -.0003182 _cons 0331677 0244299 1.36 0.182 -.0162071 0825424 Root MSE = 02331 n ua al 41 va pl Total n Std Err ll fu 0006596 oi m at nh k om l.c gm 0.4845 jm Prob > F = ht 40) = 0.50 vb F( 1, z ( 1) pri_school = z test pri_school an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 61 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to //drop the variable primary school enrollment ng hi reg growth p_log_init_gdp p_gov_share p_openness p_investment inflation ep cyear, vce(robust) w Linear regression Number of obs = 49 n lo F( 6, 42) = ad ju y th Prob > F 7.40 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4380 yi pl Root MSE al Coef Robust Std Err T P>t [95% Conf Interval] n ua growth = 01974 -2.70 0.010 -.0359385 -.0051981 -3.89 0.000 -.0026991 -.0008547 -0.80 0.429 -.0000994 000043 nh 0046638 n va p_log_init_gdp -.0205683 0076162 -.0017769 000457 p_openness -.0000282 0000353 ll fu p_gov_share oi m 0010985 2.23 0.031 0002299 inflation -.1179489 0585956 -2.01 0.051 -.2361996 cyear 007455 0053775 1.39 0.173 -.0033971 _cons 0923357 025738 3.59 0.001 0403943 at p_investment 0024468 z z 0003019 1442771 k jm ht vb 0183072 om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 62 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to //significant test for the extent of international openness ng hi reg growth p_openness ep Source SS df MS Number of obs = w F( 1, n 48) = lo 000370042 000370042 Prob > F Residual 029463345 48 00061382 R-squared ad Model 50 0.60 = 0.4413 ju y th = 0.0124 yi Adj R-squared = -0.0082 pl 029833387 growth Coef 49 000608845 Root MSE = 02478 n ua al Total va t n Std Err fu ll p_openness -.0000346 0000446 [95% Conf Interval] -0.78 0.441 -.0001242 000055 9.67 0670213 oi 0554863 005737 m _cons P>t 0.000 0439513 at nh k om l.c gm 0.4413 jm Prob > F = ht 48) = 0.60 vb F( 1, z ( 1) p_openness = z test p_openness an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 63 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to Appendix C.4: Restricted Growth Regression (robust) (1) ng hi reg growth p_log_init_gdp pri_school p_gov_share p_openness p_invest- ep ment inflation cyear, vce(robust) w Linear regression Number of obs = 41 n lo F( 7, ad 33) = ju y th Prob > F 3.99 = 0.0029 yi R-squared = 0.3416 pl Root MSE = 02056 n ua al Coef va growth Robust Std Err t P>t [95% Conf Interval] n fu ll p_log_init_gdp -.018994 0098853 0011178 0.37 0005654 0000867 0002353 p_gov_share -.0017048 0004746 -3.59 0.001 -.0026704 p_openness -.0000197 0000436 -0.45 0.653 -.0001084 p_investment 001629 1.23 inflation -.0937382 0565056 -1.66 0.107 -.2086997 cyear 0074448 0061662 1.21 0.236 -.0051005 0199901 _cons 0942606 0281618 3.35 0.002 036965 0.715 -.0003919 at nh z z vb 0.227 -.0010611 -.0007392 0000689 0043192 0212233 k jm ht 0013223 oi pri_school l.c m -1.92 0.063 -.0391058 gm 1515562 om an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 64 Determinants of economic growth in a panel of Asia Pacific countries Thesis Proposal t to Appendix C.5: Restricted Growth Regression (robust) (2) ng hi reg growth p_log_init_gdp p_gov_share p_investment inflation cyear, ep vce(robust) w Linear regression Number of obs = 49 n lo F( 5, ad 43) = ju y th Prob > F 8.61 = 0.0000 yi pl R-squared = 0.4328 Root MSE = 0196 n ua al va growth Robust Coef Std Err t P>t [95% Conf Interval] n fu -.0227588 0075849 -3.00 0.004 -.0380551 p_gov_share -.0016409 0004245 -3.87 0.000 -.002497 p_investment 0022903 0010121 2.26 inflation -.1175001 0575509 -2.04 0.047 -.2335625 cyear 0077636 0053052 1.46 0.151 -.0029353 _cons 0992838 0226643 4.38 0.000 0535768 ll p_log_init_gdp -.0074624 m oi -.0007848 0043315 z -.0014377 at nh 0.029 0002492 z 1449908 k jm ht vb 0184625 om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th Tran Luu Quoc Vuong – MDEk16 65