(Luận văn) factors affecting intention to invest in gold, evidence from ho chi minh city , vietnam

t to ng hi UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY ep International School of Business w n lo ad ju y th yi pl Truong Trung Tai n ua al n va FACTORS AFFECTING INTENTION TO INVEST IN GOLD: fu ll EVIDENCE FROM HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb MASTER OF BUSINESS om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re Ho Chi Minh City – Year 2016 th t to ng UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY hi ep International School of Business - w n lo ad ju y th yi Truong Trung Tai pl ua al n FACTORS AFFECTING INTENTION TO INVEST IN GOLD: va n EVIDENCE FROM HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM ll fu oi m nh at ID: 60340102 z z k jm ht vb om SUPERVISOR: DR PHAM PHU QUOC l.c gm MASTER OF BUSINESS an Lu n va ey t re th Ho Chi Minh City – Year 2016 t to ng hi ep w n lo ad Master Thesis y th ju FACTORS AFFECTING INTENTION TO INVEST IN GOLD: yi pl EVIDENCE FROM HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM n ua al n va Truong Trung Tai ll fu University of Economics HCMC m oi International School of Business at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to ng Table of Contents hi ep Acknowledgement Abstract w n lo Chapter 1: Introduction ad 1.1 Background y th 1.1.1 Gold as a global feature asset ju yi 1.1.2 Demand for gold in Vietnam 13 pl 1.2 Problem statement 15 al ua 1.3 Objectives and Aims 16 n 1.4 Research scope 16 va n 1.5 Significance of research 16 fu ll 1.6 Thesis structure 17 m oi Chapter 2: Review of Literature 19 nh at 2.1 Intention to invest in gold 19 z 2.2 Factors affect intention to invest in gold 22 z ht vb 2.2.1 Economic benefits of investing 22 jm 2.2.2 Macroeconomic unexpected concern 24 k 2.2.3 Perceived insecurity 25 gm 2.2.4 Convenience to invest 27 l.c Chapter 3: Method and Data 29 om 3.1 Theorical model 29 an Lu 3.2 Hypothesis 29 3.3 Measurement 31 th Chapter 4: Data Analysis and Results 36 ey 3.5 Data Analysis steps 35 t re 3.4 Sample 35 n va 3.3 Qualitative research 30 t to 4.1 Descriptive statistics 36 ng 4.2 Data reliability test with Cronbach’s Alpha 38 hi ep 4.3 Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) 41 4.4 Regression analysis 44 w 4.5 Discussion of findings 47 n lo Chapter 5: Conclusion 50 ad y th 5.1 Conclusion 50 ju 5.2 Implications 52 yi pl 5.3 Research limitation 53 ua al References 54 n Appendices 60 va n Appendix A: Questionnaire 60 fu ll Appendix B: Codified variables 63 m oi Appendix C: EFA results of independent and dependent variables 66 nh Appendix D: Regression results 72 at z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to ng List of tables hi ep Table 1: Sample specification 36 Table 2: Cronbach’s alpha of measurement scales 39 w n Table 3: EFA results 41 lo ad Table 4: Correlations of variables 44 y th ju Table 5: The ANOVA analysis 45 yi pl Table 6: Regression results 46 al n ua Table 7: Summary of hypothesis testing 47 n va List of figures ll fu Figure 1: Top 30 countries/organization holding gold as reserve assets (tonnes) 10 oi m Figure 2: World gold demand in period 2000-2015 11 at nh Figure 3: World gold price period 1970-2015 11 z Figure 4: Gold ETF holding in global market 12 z jm ht vb Figure 5: Gold demand in selected countries 13 Figure 6: Vietnam gold demand period 2000-2015 14 k om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to ng Acknowledgement hi ep I would like to express my sincere thankfulness to my research advisor, Dr Pham Phu Quoc, who has guide me and gave me possibility to complete this thesis I am sure w n lo that this thesis would not have been possible without his support I also thank Prof ad ju y th Nguyen Dinh Tho for his expert, valuable guidance, insightful comments, and yi encouragement extended to me pl ua al I would like to express my gratitude to all ISB staffs that supported n necessary materials and assistance Especially, I would like to give my special thanks to va n my parent who gave me invaluable advices and motivation in my life ll fu oi m at nh Truong Trung Tai z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to ng Abstract hi ep According to World Gold Council 2015 report, Vietnam is one of top gold consuming countries The impact of gold on Vietnam economy is uncontroversial This w n lo study aims to investigate the factors affecting people’s intention to use gold as investment ad ju y th instrument With the sample of 247 individuals in HCMC, the results show that three yi factors (Economic Benefits, Macroeconomic Concern, and Perceived Insecurity) impact pl n ua al significantly on Intention to Invest in gold va n Keywords: gold, investment behavior, Vietnam, determinants, reasoned action ll fu oi m approach at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th t to ng hi Chapter 1: Introduction ep 1.1 Background w n lo ad 1.1.1 Gold as a global feature asset y th Historically, people are using gold in decoration and reserve assets since thousands year ju yi ago Gold is a noble metal with special specifications: eternal shiny color over time because it pl n ua al does not oxidize, the valuable material because gold is the most malleable and ductile of all the ll fu tones n va metals, and especially gold is rather scarce with estimating gold in the earth around 170,000 m oi Gold was first used as jewelry in 3000 B.C at Middle Eastern After 1500 years, the nh at Shekel, first form of gold coin, was used as standard of trading and exchange for goods in area z z In 1091 B.C, gold was used as form of money in China, a big country of ancient Asia land vb jm ht Since the beginning of 18th century until the shutdown of Bretton Wood regime in 1970s, gold k is used as international standard for conducting transactions and currency exchange around the l.c gm world om In global context, gold is accepted as “real money”, unlike other legal tender currency an Lu have to depend on the political and economic influence of issuing country for secure its value n va This is the reason why most of central banks always keep a portion of gold in their foreign ey th gold stock in their treasury t re reserve The United States not only as a strongest economy, is also a country holds the largest 10 t to ng hi ep w n lo ad ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m nh at Figure 1: Top 30 countries/organization holding gold as reserve assets (tones) z Source: World Gold Council, 2015 z vb jm ht Gold is also used for industrial materials, religious customs as well as to represent wealth and power around the world (Bernstein, 2000) Because of its usefulness, the intrinsic value of k gm gold still maintain high and irreplaceable Gold demand in global market is increasing because l.c om of recent chaos in international financial market, as well as some war risk around the world an Lu Gold prices increased continuously since the dot-com collapse in the year 2000 Then gold n va price was supported by a series of economic crises followed, such as “the global financial crisis th was confirmed ey USD / ounce in the year 2012, then gold price decreases after the recovery of the US economy t re in year 2008”, “the Greek public debt crisis in year 2010” Its reach the peak at more than 1650 59 t to ng hi Thuy, T (2013, June, 28) Reserve tones of gold, Vietnamese people get lost thousands of ep Vietnamnet billions Newspaper Retrieved May, 10 2014, from w http://vietnamnet.vn/vn/kinh-te/128924/tru-tram-tan-vang nguoi-viet-thiet-hai-ngan- n lo ad ty.html y th Vy, T (2014, April 21) Real estate, gold, stocks, or saving deposits? Thanh Nien News ju yi from http://www.thanhnien.com.vn/pages/20140420/bat-dong-san-vang- pl Retrieved al n ua chung-khoan-hay-gui-tiet-kiem.aspx n va World Bank (2013) Worldwide Governance Indicators [PDF file] Retrieved from ll fu http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/c234.pdf m oi World Gold Council (2014, Feb) Gold demand trends: Full year 2013 [PDF file] Retrived nh at May, 10 2014, from http://www.gold.org/sites/default/files/GDT_Q4_2013.pdf z z Worthington, A.C., & Pahlavani, M (2006) Gold investment as an inflationary hedge: vb jm ht Cointegration evidence with allowance for endogenous structural breaks University of k Wollongong School of Accounting and Finance Working Paper Series No 06/05 om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th 60 t to ng hi Appendices ep Appendix A: Questionnaire w n lo ad Dear Sir/Madam, y th ju I am conducting the research at International School of Business (ISB) for my master yi pl thesis My research topic is about factors affecting intention to invest in gold I would al n ua appreciate for your support if you spend a few minutes to fill in this questionnaire Please note n va that there are no right or wrong answers, so you could response as your feeling fu ll I Personal information z 31-40 at - Age: 20 l.c - Marriage: Married 16-20 gm - Income per month (million VND): 51 vb - Career: Private Officer 41-50 z 20-30  Graduate  Doctorate an Lu  Others Others ey Banks t re - Place to buy gold: Jewelry shop n No va - Gold investment experience: Yes th 61 t to ng hi ep II Main content With the following statements, please check cross (X) the number that most fits your w n lo opinion (Anchored by: strongly disagree; Disagree; Disagree somewhat; Neutral; ad Item yi No ju y th Agree somewhat; Agree; Strongly agree) Rating scale pl ua al Please give your opinion about benefits of investing in gold: Gold have high liquidity compare with other investment vehicles Gold have higher profitability than other investment vehicle I don’t have to pay income tax when selling gold I buy gold because gold is a safe investment I think gold price will increase in the future I buy gold because it is accepted internationally I buy gold to diversify my portfolio investment n n va 7 7 7 ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb l.c gm Please give your opinion about following macroeconomic concerns: The inflation rate will be higher in the coming period I think the economic growth will be slowdown 10 The Vietnamese currency exchange rate with USD will om an Lu n va 6 th The foreign investment flows will decrease in future ey 11 t re depreciate in the future 62 t to ng hi 12 The money supply will increase in the future 7 ep Please give your opinion if you worry about: w 14 Losing your job 15 y th Getting serious sick Being a victim of a theft 16 Being discriminated 17 Being a victim of terrorist attack 18 Immigrant moving to live next to your house 19 Being a victim of a natural disaster 20 Someone hacking your computer 7 7 n 13 lo ad ju yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m at nh Please give your opinion about following statement: z z I easily to find a physical store to buy/sell gold 22 I could buy/sell gold at anytime I want 23 I could use any method of payment as to buy/sell gold as I want 24 It take very little time to decide to buy/sell gold 25 If I change my mind after make purchase I could resell gold k jm ht vb 21 l.c gm om an Lu without any difficulties n There is high probability that I will invest in gold in next three month th ey t re 26 va Please give your opinion about Intention to invest in gold: 63 t to ng hi 27 ep I want to invest in gold in the next three month 28 I would consider investing in gold in next three month w n lo ad Thank you for your answers We will deliver research result as your demand ju y th yi Appendix B: Codified variables pl al Label Measure ECO1 Gold have high liquidity compare with other investment n ua Name va n Scale ll fu vehicles oi m Gold have higher profitability than other investment vehicle Scale ECO3 I don’t have to pay income tax when selling gold ECO4 I buy gold because gold is a safe investment ECO5 I think gold price will increase in the future ECO6 I buy gold because it is accepted internationally ECO7 I buy gold to diversify my portfolio investment MAC1 The inflation rate will be higher in the coming period Scale MAC2 I think the economic growth will be slowdown Scale MAC3 The Vietnamese currency exchange rate with USD will Scale at nh ECO2 Scale z z ht vb Scale k jm Scale l.c gm Scale Scale om an Lu n va ey t re depreciate in the future th 64 t to Scale MAC5 The money supply will increase in the future Scale SEC1 Getting serious sick Scale Losing your job Scale hi The foreign investment flows will decrease in future ep ng MAC4 n lo ad y th Being a victim of a theft Scale ju SEC3 w SEC2 yi Being discriminated Scale SEC5 Being a victim of terrorist attack SEC6 Immigrant moving to live next to your house SEC7 Being a victim of a natural disaster SEC8 Someone hacking your computer CON1 I easily to find a physical store to buy/sell gold CON2 I could buy/sell gold at anytime I want CON3 I could use any method of payment as to buy/sell gold as I Scale pl SEC4 al n ua Scale n va Scale fu ll Scale m oi Scale nh at Scale z z l.c gm want k jm ht vb Scale It take very little time to decide to buy/sell gold CON5 If I change my mind after make purchase I could resell gold Scale an Lu without any difficulties t re Scale th I would consider investing in gold in next three month ey three month INT2 n There is high probability that I will invest in gold in next Scale va INT1 Scale om CON4 65 t to Scale Economic benefits from investing in gold Sum of ECO1-> ECO7 Sum of MAC1>MAC5 Sum of SEC1>SEC8 Sum of CON1>CON5 Sum of INT1>INT3 Code=1 Code=2 Code=3 Code=4 Code=5 Code=1 Code=2 Code=1 Code=2 Code=3 Code=4 Code=1 Code=2 Code=3 Code=4 Code=5 Code=1 Code=2 Code=1 Code=2 Code=3 Code=4 hi I want to invest in gold in the next three month ep ng INT3 ECO w n lo MAC Macroeconomic concerns ad y th Perceived insecurity ju SEC yi pl n ua n va at z z k jm ht vb l.c gm ey EDUCATION nh MARRIAGE oi INCOME m JOB ll fu GENDER t re th 51 Male Female Private Officer Public officer Private business owner Others < mil 5-9 mil 10-15 mil 16-20 mil >20 mil Single Married Highschool diplomat Undergraduate Graduate Doctorate n AGE va Intention to invest an Lu INT om Convenience to invest al CON 66 t to ng hi ep EXPERIENCE (in gold investment) Code=5 Code=1 No Jewelry shop Code=2 Code=1 Others Yes w n lo PLACE (to buy gold) ad Code=2 Code=3 ju y th Banks Others yi pl al n ua Appendix C: EFA results of independent and dependent variables n va ll fu KMO and Bartlett's Test Approx Chi-Square 4705.844 378 at nh df oi Bartlett's Test of Sphericity 872 m Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy Sig .000 z z jm Extraction k Initial ht vb Communalities gm 935 947 INT2 937 INT3 513 ECO1 602 ECO2 671 693 ECO3 687 706 ECO4 685 720 ECO5 720 750 ECO6 600 595 ECO7 676 702 MAC1 691 735 MAC2 713 738 MAC3 675 705 967 490 om l.c INT1 614 an Lu n va ey t re th 67 t to ng 697 701 MAC5 705 736 SEC1 441 447 SEC2 438 461 382 405 403 409 446 455 376 372 366 400 450 500 700 729 705 741 711 748 676 692 663 675 hi MAC4 ep lo ad SEC5 n SEC4 w SEC3 y th SEC6 ju SEC7 yi SEC8 pl CON1 al ua CON2 n CON3 va CON4 n CON5 ll fu Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring oi m at nh z Total Variance Explained z vb Rotation ht Sums of Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings % of Variance Cumulative % Total Loadingsa k gm Total jm Factor Squared % of Variance Cumulative % Total l.c 5.479 19.566 19.566 5.190 18.537 18.537 4.894 4.658 16.636 36.202 4.339 15.496 34.033 3.994 3.877 13.846 50.048 3.403 12.154 46.187 3.689 3.637 12.989 63.036 3.321 11.860 58.046 3.485 1.783 6.369 69.405 1.580 5.643 63.689 709 2.533 71.938 700 2.499 74.437 658 2.352 76.789 619 2.211 79.000 10 581 2.075 81.075 11 555 1.981 83.056 om an Lu 3.204 n va ey t re th 68 t to ng 459 1.639 84.696 13 430 1.535 86.231 14 386 1.378 87.609 372 1.327 88.936 359 1.282 90.218 353 1.262 91.480 1.105 92.585 1.019 93.603 982 94.585 883 95.468 hi 12 ep n 16 w 15 lo 18 309 19 285 20 275 21 247 22 241 861 23 233 833 24 208 744 25 203 725 26 179 641 27 171 612 99.883 28 033 117 100.000 ad 17 ju y th yi pl 96.329 97.905 n ua al 97.162 va 98.630 n 99.271 ll fu oi m Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring nh a When factors are correlated, sums of squared loadings cannot be added to obtain a total variance at z z vb ht Factor Matrixa k jm Factor 319 057 -.677 INT3 419 248 206 063 -.454 ECO1 668 -.337 -.218 -.073 027 ECO2 725 -.324 -.166 -.138 130 ECO3 759 -.309 -.142 -.046 116 ECO4 729 -.381 -.095 -.152 105 ECO5 735 -.377 -.210 -.126 083 ECO6 673 -.316 -.195 -.063 028 ECO7 717 -.353 -.213 -.078 103 MAC1 335 628 335 -.215 264 MAC2 314 602 399 -.179 294 th 280 ey 571 t re INT2 n -.670 va 024 an Lu 327 om 295 l.c 551 gm INT1 69 t to 585 328 -.195 261 MAC4 293 621 349 -.250 213 MAC5 363 630 332 -.220 222 SEC1 098 -.252 435 411 126 071 -.223 415 478 076 052 -.170 412 441 096 SEC4 -.225 429 404 088 SEC5 057 -.274 478 377 077 SEC6 084 -.246 332 439 -.034 SEC7 077 -.263 417 380 078 SEC8 099 -.262 379 502 157 CON1 167 436 -.437 564 046 CON2 192 439 -.426 570 078 CON3 160 465 -.451 548 042 CON4 204 394 -.425 561 013 CON5 203 431 -.426 515 036 hi 386 ad ng MAC3 ep n lo SEC3 w SEC2 062 ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu oi m Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring a factors extracted iterations required at nh z z Pattern Matrixa vb 014 982 INT3 007 033 049 007 678 ECO1 773 -.074 027 -.033 042 ECO2 839 059 -.021 -.014 -.038 ECO3 832 054 042 058 -.003 ECO4 842 044 -.095 031 -.005 ECO5 868 -.024 -.015 -.031 -.005 ECO6 758 -.053 032 -.017 052 ECO7 842 -.016 031 -.003 -.026 MAC1 -.003 857 015 -.014 -.007 MAC2 -.023 874 -.005 065 -.032 MAC3 056 835 022 010 002 th -.005 ey -.005 t re 012 n INT2 va 972 an Lu -.007 om -.029 l.c 016 gm -.005 k INT1 jm ht Factor 70 t to 822 -.033 -.044 035 MAC5 008 837 013 -.030 043 SEC1 032 040 -.023 670 -.032 SEC2 -.024 -.011 038 678 016 -.050 037 036 640 -.003 -.018 020 -.023 640 000 SEC5 009 -.091 664 013 SEC6 -.005 -.122 036 576 109 SEC7 016 -.005 -.048 626 005 SEC8 049 006 072 708 -.075 CON1 -.015 -.004 855 004 -.005 CON2 009 029 862 024 -.029 CON3 -.029 007 862 -.026 -.001 CON4 020 -.035 830 015 034 CON5 017 015 817 -.021 014 hi -.047 ad ng MAC4 ep n lo SEC4 w SEC3 -.013 ju y th yi pl n ua al n va ll fu Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring oi m Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization a a Rotation converged in iterations at nh z z Structure Matrix 113 983 INT3 161 275 128 070 697 ECO1 780 -.041 038 019 190 ECO2 830 060 -.007 025 168 ECO3 836 067 055 097 213 ECO4 842 046 -.082 078 192 ECO5 865 -.009 -.004 019 176 ECO6 769 -.017 045 033 205 ECO7 837 -.007 039 041 161 MAC1 010 857 094 -.086 294 MAC2 -.011 856 068 -.010 276 MAC3 072 837 098 -.056 311 th 104 ey 339 t re 233 n INT2 va 972 an Lu 089 om 082 l.c 356 gm 213 k INT1 jm ht vb Factor 71 t to 834 048 -.108 306 MAC5 031 856 096 -.094 338 SEC1 062 -.027 -.055 667 053 SEC2 018 -.058 005 678 078 -.014 -.014 006 632 066 017 -.035 -.053 639 064 SEC5 -.049 -.122 668 069 SEC6 050 -.127 008 595 126 SEC7 051 -.059 -.079 630 063 SEC8 072 030 700 016 CON1 -.004 071 853 -.040 086 CON2 017 096 860 -.023 083 CON3 -.019 087 864 -.071 089 CON4 040 052 830 -.019 121 CON5 031 097 821 -.060 113 hi -.027 ad ng MAC4 ep n lo SEC4 w SEC3 025 ju y th yi -.071 pl n ua al n va fu ll Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring oi m Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization at nh 056 225 018 1.000 092 -.082 352 014 092 1.000 -.049 112 056 -.082 -.049 1.000 099 225 352 112 099 1.000 Rotation Method: Promax with Kaiser Normalization om Extraction Method: Principal Axis Factoring l.c 014 gm 018 k 1.000 jm ht vb z Factor z Factor Correlation Matrix an Lu n va ey t re th 72 t to ng hi ep Appendix D: Regression results w n lo ad ju y th yi Variables Entered/Removeda pl SUM_CON, Removed Method n Variables Entered ua Model al Variables va SUM_ECO, n Enter fu SUM_SEC, ll SUM_MACb m oi a Dependent Variable: SUM_INT at nh b All requested variables entered z z Estimate 170 2.348 gm 183 k 428a Square R Square jm R Std Error of the ht Model Adjusted R vb Model Summary a Predictors: (Constant), SUM_CON, SUM_ECO, SUM_SEC, SUM_MAC om l.c Model Regression df Mean Square Residual 1334.285 242 5.514 Total 1633.830 246 a Dependent Variable: SUM_INT 000b th b Predictors: (Constant), SUM_CON, SUM_ECO, SUM_SEC, SUM_MAC 13.582 ey 74.886 t re Sig n 299.545 F va Sum of Squares an Lu ANOVAa 73 t to ng hi ep Coefficientsa Standardized w Unstandardized Coefficients B lo Std Error Beta (Constant) 6.407 1.519 SUM_ECO 091 026 178 075 ad n Model Coefficients ju yi SUM_SEC y th SUM_MAC 045 Sig 4.218 000 203 3.489 001 030 344 5.884 000 038 116 1.983 049 032 083 1.414 159 n ua al a Dependent Variable: SUM_INT pl SUM_CON t n va ll fu oi m at nh z z k jm ht vb om l.c gm an Lu n va ey t re th