THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUYLOI UNIVERSITY lu an n va p ie gh tn to nl w d oa STUDY ON FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT IN DOWNSTREAM ll fu an nv a lu AREA OF KE GO RESERVOIR, HA TINH PROVINCE m z at nh oi Tran Ngoc Huan MSc Thesis on Intergrated Water Resources Management z m co l gm @ an Lu Hanoi, 2015 n va ac th si MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT THUY LOI UNIVERSITY lu Tran Ngoc Huan an n va AREA IN KE GO RESERVOIR, HA TINH PROVINCE p ie gh tn to STUDY ON FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT IN DOWNSTREAM d oa nl w Major: Intergrated Water Resources Management nv a lu ll fu an THESIS OF MASTER DEGREE m z at nh oi Supervisor: Asso Prof Dr Pham Thi Huong Lan This research is done for a partial fulfilment of the requirement for z gm @ Master of Science Degree at Thuyloi University This Master Programme is supported by NICHE – VNM 106 Project m co l an Lu Hanoi, 2015 n va ac th si Abstract Flooding causes economic, social and environmental damages and life loss This fact increases the great attention on flooding by government, and science in many countries around the world As a country located in the tropical climate region, Vietnam has been facing various water related disasters since ancient time, particularly in central parts of Vietnam where featured by steep topography In recent years, Rao Cai river basin in Ha Tinh province is frequently flooded due to climate change impact, rapid infrastructure and urbanization growth This problem caused serious damages to human life, properties, and social – economic lu an development activities… va Flood risk management is a new concept based on a proactive approach which n tn to recently becomes a robust tool for reducing flood damage Main contents of flood gh risk management are flood risk assessment and flood preventive measures or flood p ie preventive planning Flood risk assessment is key part in flood risk management Flood risk assessment is a function of three main variables: flood hazards, w oa nl vulnerability, and coping capacity Understanding of flood hazards, vulnerability, d and coping capacity is the vital step for efficiency of flood risk assessment Flood a lu risk management strategies have not been developed for Rao Cai river basin for nv ll fu an many years and there is no spatial planning approach for regional development This research aims at flood risk assessment for Rao Cai river basin based on the m z at nh oi new concept of flood risk management mentioned above An incorporated hydrological modeling approach for hazard assessment for Rao Cai river basin has been adopted in this research The research objective divides into three parts: (1) z gm @ Identification of flooding and potential reasons based on available natural, social and economic data; (2) The second part involved flood simulation and inundation l mapping of events with chosen return periods using a MIKE package model (MIKE m co UHM, MIKE 11, and MIKE 11 GIS).The model was calibrated and verified based an Lu on the data series in October, 2010 A flood from 2nd to 6th, October 2010 was used to calibrate the model Another flood in October, 2010 (from 14th to 19th, October) n va ac th si was used to verify the model Results of calibration and verification were fit to measured data The flood simulations for selected return periods were generated for 200 and 1000 years corresponding to frequency of design and checking flood of Ke Go reservoir (3) Flood risk assessment is combined effect of flood depth (hazard factor) and population density (vulnerability factor) by weighing factors for both of them As for the results, the research revealed that flood risk assessment is helpful tool for flood risk management Flood risk maps were produced for the flood of 1000 year and 200 year return period The level of hazard and risk were determined for each community in Cam lu an Xuyen, Thach Ha and Ha Tinh city These maps can be used for flood risk n va management and mitigation planning for Ha Tinh province in general, Rao Cai river p ie gh tn to basin in particular d oa nl w ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th si Declaration I hereby certify that the work which is being presented in this thesis entitled, “Study on flood risk assessment in downstream area in Ke Go reservoir, Ha Tinh province” in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the Master of Science in Integrated Water Resource Management, is an authentic record of my own work carried out under supervision of Asso Prof Dr Pham Thi Huong Lan The matter embodied in this thesis has not been submitted by me for the award of any other degree or diploma lu an Date: February 15, 2015 n va gh tn to p ie Tran Ngoc Huan d oa nl w ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th si Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Asso Prof Dr Pham Thi Huong Lan for her guidance, suggestion and inspiration I would also like to acknowledge Dr Vu Thanh Tu, Mr Duong Hai Thuan and Dr Bui Du Duong for their comments and suggestion I would like to thank the Hanoi University for Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam and NICHE – VNM 106 Project for the award of a scholarship and also Hanoi Water Resources lu University for giving me the opportunity for this special study an I also wish to thank members of the master thesis committee consist of Prof.Dr va n Nguyen Quan Kim (chairman), Asso.Prof.Dr Mai Van Cong (examination), tn to Asso.Prof.Dr Nguyen Mai Dang (examination), Dr Le Viet Son and Dr Dinh p ie gh Thanh Mung for their comments, examination, and corrections Finally, I would like to express my special appreciation to my friends and nl w colleagues for their supports, encourages and advices The deepest thanks are d oa expressed to my family members for their unconditional loves ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an i TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER - INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Scope of study 1.4 Structure of thesis CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Concepts of flood risk, hazard and vulnerability 2.2 Flood risk assessment lu 2.3 Previous studies in study area an n va CHAPTER 3: DESCRIPTION OF STUDY AREA 10 3.1 Physical characteristics 10 to 3.1.2 Topography conditions 11 p ie gh tn 3.1.1 Location of this basin 10 3.1.3 Hydro-meteorological characteristics 12 nl w 3.2 Social and economic characteristics 16 oa 3.2.1 Population 16 d 3.2.1 Rural area 17 a lu nv 3.3 Reservoir and current irrigation system 18 ll fu an 3.3.1 Overview of Ke Go reservoir 18 3.3.2 Irrigation system 21 m z at nh oi 3.4 Flooding situation in downstream area 22 3.4.1 The flooding events occurred in 2010 22 3.4.2 The flooding events occurred in 2012 25 z gm @ 3.4.3 The flooding events occurred in 2013 26 m co l CHAPTER 4: METHODOLOGY AND DATA USED 28 4.1 General framework 28 4.1.1 Methods to flood risk assessment 29 an Lu 4.1.2 Method for estimating design hyetograph 30 n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an ii 4.1.3 Method for developing design hydrograph on lateral flow in downstream 31 4.1.4 Method for simulation floods corresponding to various return period 31 4.1.5 Method for inundation mapping 31 4.2 Governing equation in MIKE package 31 4.2.1 Rainfall runoff model (MIKE - Unit hydrograph model) 32 4.2.2 Hydrodynamic model (MIKE 11 HD) 33 4.2.3 Identification of inundation maps 34 4.3 Data used 35 lu 4.3.1 Data collection 35 an 4.3.2 Data analysis 36 va n CHAPTER 5: RESULTS AND DISSCUSIONS 40 5.1.1 Climate change impacts 40 p ie gh tn to 5.1 The reasons cause the flooding in downstream area 40 5.1.2 Infrastructure impacts 43 5.2 Flood hazard 43 w oa nl 5.2.1 Rainfall runoff modeling 43 d 5.2.2 Flood modeling 50 a lu 5.2.3 Flood hazard maps 58 nv ll fu an 5.3 Flood vulnerability 62 5.4 Flood risk in downstream area of the Ke Go reservoir 65 m CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 70 z at nh oi 6.1 Conclusions 70 6.2 Recommendations 71 z REFERENCES 73 gm @ l APPENDIX 76 Appendix 1: Frequency curve of maximum rainfall during day of stations 77 m co Appendix 2: Roughness coefficient 81 an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an iii LIST OF TABLES Table 3- Lists of meteorological stations 12 Table 3- 2: The average of monthly rainfall at Ha Tinh station from 1975 - 2010 14 Table 3- 3: Monthly discharge of Ke Go reservoir from 1957 - 2010 15 Table 3- 4: Population pattern 16 Table 3- 5: Land use 17 Table 3- 6: Technical parameters of reservoir 19 Table 3- 7: Parameters of junction work items 19 Table 3- 8: Technical parameters of Irrigation channels system 21 lu Table 3- 9: Statistic of damages caused by rainfall and flood at Ha Tinh city, Thach Ha and Cam Xuyen district occurred from 14 October to 19, October, 2010 24 an n va Table 4- Database used for research 36 Table - 2: Value of design rainfall distribution of Ha Tinh, Ky Anh and Huong Khe stations during day corresponding to difference frequency (daily rainfall) 44 p ie gh tn to Table - 1: Result of frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall 44 w Table - 3: Sub-catchment of Rao Cai river basin and weighting factors of meteorological station 46 oa nl Table - 4: Parameters of UHM in MIKE RR model of Ke Go catchment 47 d Table - 5: Different in peaks of observed and simulated discharge for calibration mode at Ke Go reservoir 48 a lu ll fu an nv Table - 6: Different in peaks of observed and simulated discharge in verification at Ke Go reservoir 48 Table - 7: Parameters of UHM - SCS for Rao Cai’s sub-catchments 50 m Table - Runoff link of sub-catchments into river network in MIKE 11 model 53 z at nh oi Table - 9: Monitoring points for the calibrating and verifying hydraulic model 53 Table - 10: Results of flood simulation form 2nd Oct to 6th Oct, 2010 for calibration of MIKE 11 HD model 55 z gm @ Table - 11: Results of flood simulation from 12 Oct to 18 Oct- 2010 57 m co l Table - 12: Maximum water level corresponding to design and checking flood of Ke Go reservoir 57 an Lu Table - 13 Designed flooding hazard level scale for the downstream of the Ke Go reservoir 58 Table - 14 Flood hazard areas for flood event in 2010 60 n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an iv Table - 15 Flood hazard areas corresponding to design and checking flood 62 Table - 16 Criteria of vulnerability map derived from population density for the downstream of the Ke Go reservoir 63 Table - 17 Criteria of vulnerability map derived from population density for the downstream of the Ke Go reservoir 65 Table - 18 Flood risk map for the downstream area of Ke Go catchment in flood in October, 2010 65 Table - 19 Statistic table of flood risk of different floods 68 lu an n va p ie gh tn to d oa nl w ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 67 Flood risk map for design flood and checking flood with 200 year and 1000 year return period was built by intersecting hazard map and population density map to give an assumption how is risky if 0.1% and 0.5% flood occurs at the moment It does not mean that this map will depict exactly risk situation in future due to changing of population distribute land use, demographic density and other aspects as well lu an n va p ie gh tn to d oa nl w ll fu an nv a lu Figure - 24 Flood risk map for 0.5% design flood m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 68 lu an n va gh tn to p ie Figure - 25 Flood risk map for 0.1% checking flood Design flood Area (km2) Percentage (%) 70.0 16.9% 164.4 39.6% 112.3 27.0% 68.5 16.5% 415.1 Checking flood Area (km2) Percentage (%) 64.4 14.1% 178.9 39.3% 123.5 27.1% 88.9 19.5% 455.7 d oa ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi Hazard zone Low Medium High Very high Total nl w Table - 19 Statistic table of flood risk of different floods Following Table - 19 shows risk areas, at four different levels correspond to design and checking flood of Ke Go reservoir Overall, the total risk area of z checking flood case is higher than design flood case because flow of the former is gm @ higher than last one Medium and high risk areas are nearly total affected area with m co l above 70% In both case, percentage of affected medium and high area were equal with 39 % and 27% respectively Only having change in low area and very high an Lu area n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 69 The statistical results of table 5-15, figure 5-17 and figure 5-18 show that the flooding depth in downstream area of Ke Go reservoir is quite severe Because this is an important area, there is a need to prepare some effective measures to minimize damages to the Ha Tinh city and surrounding area To flood risk management, we can use structural and non-structural measures The structural measures can design dykes or build levees along Rao Cai and Gia Hoi rivers At the present, a number of measures are applied all over the world to ensure safety for particularly important areas The nonstructural measures are structure elevation or structure relocation by lu an moving structure in low land to high land Beside, awareness increase of resident n va about flood control and mitigation solution is very important in flood risk p ie gh tn to management d oa nl w ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 70 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusions The Rao Cai is one of the largest rivers in Ha Tinh province In recent years, floods have been increasing not only frequency but also intensity and affect to all aspects of lives Climate change, improper management of natural resources, inadequate awareness on flood risk, etc., response for the question ―Why flood become increasingly serious?‖ To minimize negative impacts of flood on local people, it is necessary to make an efficient flood risk management Flood risk assessment based lu on flood modeling has an important contribution to this progress an To assess flood risk, in this study, the MIKE package including MIKE UHM, va n MIKE 11 HD and MIKE 11 GIS, was used to simulate the previous flood events in tn to 2010 and other floods as 0.5% and 0.1% The main objective of this study is to p ie gh develop inundation maps corresponding to the floods as mention above That is the foundation to assess the flood risk by overlapping vulnerability and hazard layer To nl w assess risk of the flood events, the following conclusions could be depicted as d oa elements of research procedure: a lu + Main reasons and causes of flood in study area are affected by heavy nv rainfall with high intensity and more frequency Those are impact of climate change ll fu an + Digital Elevation Model (DEM), which represents the floodplain’s surface, is the input information for simulating and estimating the flooding extend and depth m z at nh oi The DEM in the research was derived from interpolation of elevation spots and contour lines of different spatial data such as, contour maps with variable scales, transportation system maps, dyke system maps, and hydrological maps The DEM z gm @ was built from topography with scale of 1:10,000 + For the, in order to simulate the lateral inflow of sub-catchments in l the model parameters of Ke Go catchment; m co downstream of Ke Go reservoir, the regionalization method was applied by using an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 71 + The combination of flooding depth (hazard factor) and population density (vulnerability factor) with the weighing factors for both of them, flood risk assessment was done and mapped The level of hazard and risk were determined for each community in Cam Xuyen, Thach Ha and Ha Tinh city These maps can be used for flood management 6.2 Recommendations Due to limited time and knowledge, this thesis have focused on simple hazard and vulnerability such as flooding depth and population density, to have valuable result we have to considering to other aspect such as: velocity, during flooded (hazard lu an factor) and vulnerability about agriculture, infrastructure (road, railway…) Besides va to improve result flood simulation, inundation map need good data, in study area n tn to are almost data from local supply (water level at upstream, downstream, release p ie gh flow of Ke Go reservoir, which can be reedited for an another reason (political, …) From this study, the following issues are strongly recommended: nl w - Technical issues: Before using the recorded data of a station, it is necessary to d oa firstly check the data for continuity and consistency a lu - Research issues: flood risk assessment is difficult but necessary for flood risk nv management and the results of hazard and risk assessment should be represented to ll fu an the local and regional decision makers Recommendations for future research: m z at nh oi The results of flood modeling and flood characteristics can be improved if better resolution and quality DEM is used for flood simulation Research was based z on the topography in 10,000 scales The usage of better resolution and quality DEM gm @ and considering infrastructure such as road, railway, and building or … using satellite image and classify image of past flood to improve quality of hydrodynamic m co l model are topic for future research Besides, it is undeniable that awareness of resident about flood it is very an Lu important in flood control and mitigation and it is effect to result flood risk n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 72 The study of flood hazard should be more considering with others scenarios to obtain the higher results of risk assessment for the region in order to quantify the expected damage for different return periods Recommendations for the Local Administrative Authorities and local communities: It should be improved the risk perception of local community regarding to flood process and its hazardous effect on population and their property New hazard maps should be represented to the population and they should be informed about probable results According to of European Union, the risk maps should be rebuilt after years lu an It should be prohibited to use dikes for cattle pasture va n Dikes should be built up to protect population along rivers to gh tn Construction of small channels and rising vines with ground will decrease the water level on cultivated land and protect it from inundation p ie d oa nl w Raising the awareness of people about flood, hazard and mitigation ways ll fu an nv a lu m z at nh oi z m co l gm @ an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 73 REFERENCES Alkema, D (2007) Simulating floods: on the application of a 2D hydraulic model for flood hazard and risk assessment ITC Dissertation; 147, ITC: 198 Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) (2005) Total disaster risk managementGood practices 2005 Baas, S., Ramasamy, S., DePryck, J D., Battista, F (2008) Disaster Risk Management Systems Analysis Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division, FAO, Rome, Italy, 68 pp lu an Bell, F (1999) Geological hazards: their assessment, avoidance and mitigation va London: E & FN SPON n University of Technology WL|Delft Hydraulics p ie gh tn to Bruijn, K M D., Klijn, F (2005) Resilient flood risk management strategies Delft Central committee for flood and storm control (CCFSC) (2013) Statistics of flood oa nl w and tropical in Vietnam in 2013 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial organisation (CSIRO) (2000) Annual d nv a lu report In: Jennifer North , k R (ed.) Campbell: CSIRO ll fu an Chien, N (2010) Dam Safety in major flood conditions, Thuy Loi University Chow, V T., Maidment, D R., Larry W Mays (1964), Applied Hydrology, m z at nh oi McGraw-Hill, Delft (2014) Deltares enabling Delta life Delft: Delft Hydraulics z DHI (2011) MIKE 11 User Guide Denmark: DHI gm @ Federal emergency management agency (FEMA) (2010) Flood Hazard Mapping Site Retrieved 2014, from from m co l Web http://www.awra.org/proceedings/www99/w18/index.htm an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 74 Geohazards (2009) Applied earth Sciences:Geo Hazards,Process Modelling Multi Hazard risk ITC Hawkins, R.H.; 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Geological Survey of Finland Retrieved Special Paper, from http://arkisto.gtk.fi/sp/SP42/4_vulnera.pdf Klijn, F., M van Buuren, et al (2009) "Flood-risk Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future: Living with Rhine River Floods in The Netherlands?" AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment 33(3): 141-147 Merz, et al (2007) Flood Risk Mapping At The Local Scale: Concepts and lu Challenges Flood Risk Management in Europe Springer Netherlands, 25: an 231-251 va n Plate, E J (2002) Flood risk and flood management Journal of Hydrology 267(1- to gh tn 2): 2-11 p ie Pender, G and S Néelz (2007) "Use of computer models of flood inundation to facilitate communication in flood risk management." Environmental Hazards oa nl w 7(2): 106-114 d Thai, N C., Lan, P T H., Huan T N (2011) Study effects of dam breaking at Ke nv a lu Go reservoir – Ha Tinh in downstream area Water Resources and ll fu an Environment Journal, Thuy loi University, Vol 11, pp 18 - 25 Thong, L Q., (2014) Study on effect of wave to Ke Go emergency dam Master m z at nh oi thesis of Thuyloi university, Vietnam Twigg, J (2004), Disaster risk reduction: Mitigation and Preparedness in development and emergency programming Humanitarian Practice Network z m co l gm @ London Kingdom an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 76 Tamar Tsamalashvili (2010) Flood risk assessment and mitigation measure for Rioni River, University of Twente; Tu, V T (2009) Flood inundation, damage and risk assessment in Hoang Long basin, Vietnam, AIT Dissertation, Asian Institute of Technology United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) (1986) Urban hydrology for small watersheds Technical Release 55 (TR-55) (Second Edition ed.) Natural Resources Conservation Service, Conservation Engineering Division USGS (2013) Satellite image of Ha Tinh area http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/ lu an USGS (2011) DEM of Ha Tinh area, n va http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod/http://gdex.cr.usgs.gov/gdex/ 2014 from http://vtc.vn/nhin-lai-8-tran-lut-kinh-hoang-tai-viet- nam.2.456814.htm p ie gh tn to Vi, D N (2013) Nhìn lại trận lụt kinh hồng Việt Nam Retrieved January Viet, T Q (2009) Flood risk assessment for the Thach Han river basin, Quang Tri w d oa nl province, Vietnam Cologne University of applied science a lu Vietnam Water Resources Assistance Project (VWRAP) (2003) Feasibility study ll fu an nv for modernization of Ke Go project, Ha Noi, Haskoning Vnexpress (2010) Miền Trung vật lộn với lũ 10 năm Retrieved January m 2014 from http://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/thoi-su/mien-trung-vat-lon-voi-lu-du- z at nh oi nhat-10-nam-2896392.html Vnexpress (2013) The flooding in Oct, 2013 in central Vietnam Retrieved January z 2014 from gm @ https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=zGR_qj798D2c.kLUgSscZ m co l XoJk&msa=0&iwloc=0004e8ea5f790918f950c an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 77 APPENDIX Appendix 1: Frequency curve of maximum rainfall during day of stations 1000 900 800 Rainfall (mm) 700 600 500 Actual 400 Design 300 lu 200 an 100 va n 1st 2nd 3th gh tn to Time (day) p ie Hyetograph of design rainfall of Ha Tinh stations corresponding to 1000 years w return period 700 Actual Design m Rainfall (mm) 300 ll fu an 400 nv 500 a lu 600 d oa nl 800 100 2nd 3th gm @ Time (day) z 1st z at nh oi 200 return period m co l Hyetograph of design rainfall of Ha Tinh stations corresponding to 200 years an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 78 800 700 Rainfall (mm) 600 500 400 Actual 300 Design 200 100 1st 2nd 3th lu Time (day) an va n Hyetograph of design rainfall of Ky Anh stations corresponding to 1000 years gh tn to return period 700 p ie 600 nl Rainfall (mm) w 500 ll fu an 100 Design nv 200 Actual a lu 300 d oa 400 m 2nd 3th z at nh oi 1st Time (day) Hyetograph of design rainfall of Ky Anh stations corresponding to 200 years z m co l gm @ return period an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 79 700 600 Rainfall (mm) 500 400 Actual 300 Design 200 100 1st 2nd 3th lu Time (day) an va n Hyetograph of design rainfall of Huong Khe stations corresponding to 1000 years gh tn to return period 600 p ie 400 300 ll fu an Design nv 100 Actual a lu 200 d oa nl Rainfall (mm) w 500 m 2nd 3th z at nh oi 1st Time (day) Hyetograph of design rainfall of Huong Khe stations corresponding to 200 years z m co l gm @ return period an Lu n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn si C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an C.33.44.55.54.78.65.5.43.22.2.4 22.Tai lieu Luan 66.55.77.99 van Luan an.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.33.44.55.54.78.655.43.22.2.4.55.22 Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an.Tai lieu Luan van Luan an Do an 80 FFC 2008 © Nghiem Tien Lam FREQUENCY CURVE OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL DURING DAY - HA TINH STATION 1130 Maximum rainfall during day TB=304.81, Cv=0.41, Cs=0.86 1030 Pearson Type III Distribution TB=304.81, Cv=0.43, Cs=0.89 930 830 Rainfall, X(mm) 730 630 530 430 330 230 130 30 0.01 0.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 99 99.9 99.99 Frequency, P(%) lu © FFC 2008 an FFC 2008 © Nghiem Tien Lam FREQUENCY CURVE OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL DURING DAY OF KY ANH n va 920 Ky Anh_Maximum rainfall during day TB=292.62, Cv=0.36, Cs=0.60 820 720 gh tn to Frequency curve of maximum rainfall during day of Ky Anh TB=292.62, Cv=0.36, Cs=0.60 p ie 520 420 320 oa nl w Rainfall (mm) 620 220 d 120 0.1 10 20 FFC 2008 © Nghiem Tien Lam 40 50 60 70 80 90 740 99.9 99.99 © FFC 2008 maximum rainfall during day of Huong Khe TB=246.72, Cv=0.37, Cs=0.62 frequency curve TB=246.72, Cv=0.37, Cs=0.82 m 690 z at nh oi 640 590 540 490 440 z 390 gm @ 340 290 240 140 90 40 0.1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 m co l 190 0.01 99 Frequency, P(%) FREQUENCY CURVE OF MAXIMUM RAINFALL DURING DAY OF HUONG KHE 790 Rainfall (mm) 30 ll fu an nv 0.01 a lu 20 99 99.9 99.99 an Lu Frequency, P(%) © FFC 2008 n va ac th Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.77.99.44.45.67.22.55.77.C.37.99.44.45.67.22.55.77t@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn.Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhddtt@edu.gmail.com.vn.bkc19134.hmu.edu.vn Stt.010.Mssv.BKD002ac.email.ninhd 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