Api publ 4546 1992 scan (american petroleum institute)

A P I PUBL*454b = 0732290 0505438 7 W Hazard Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES API PUBLICATION NUMBER 4546 OCTOBER 1992 American Petmleum Institute 1220 L Street, Northwest Washington, D.C 20005 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale 11’ Hazardous Response Modeling Uncertainty (A Quantitative Method) Volume II Evaluation of Commonly Used Hazardous Gas Dispersion Models `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Prepared for: American Petroleum Institute Health and Environmental Sciences Department and Air Force Engineering and Services Center Tyndall Air Force Base PUBLICATION NUMBER 4546 OCTOBER 1992 PREPARED UNDER CONTRACT BY: SIGMA RESEARCH CORPORATION 196 BAKER AVENUE CONCORD, MASSACHUSETTS American Petroleum Institute Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale A P T P U B L W S U 92 0732290 0505W+O 32T `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - FOREWORD API PUBLICATIONS NECESSARILY ADDRESS PROBLEMS OF A GENERAL NATURE Wi"H RESPECT TO PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES, LOCAL, STATE, AND EDEFUL, LAWS AND REGULATIONS SHOULD BE REVIEWED API IS NOT UNDERTAKING TO THE DUTIES OF EMPLOYERS, MANUFACTURERS, OR SUPPLERS ?io WARN AND PROPEZCY TRAIN AND EQUIP THEIR EMPLOYEES, AND OTHERS EXPOSED, CONCERNING AND SAFETY RISKS AND PRECAUTIONS,NOR UNDERTAKING "EX3 OBLIGAIIONS UNDER LOCAL,STWE,OR FEDERAL LAWS ~~~ NOTHING CONTAINED IN ANY API PUBLICATION IS To BE CONSTRUED AS GRANTING ANY RIGHT, BY IMPLICATION OR OTHERWISE, FOR THE MANUFACTURE, SALE, OR USE OF ANY METHOD,APPARATUS, OR PRODUCT COVERED BY LE'MERS PATENT NEITHER SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED IN THE PUBLICATION BE CONSTRUED AS INSURING ANYONE AGAINST LIABLITY FOR I"GEMENT OF LEXỵS PAENT Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale ACKNOWLEDGMENTS THE FOLLOWINGPEOPLE ARE RECOGNIZEDFOR "'HEIR CONTRIBUTIONSOF TIME AND EXPERTISE DURING THIS STUDY AND IN THE PREPARATION OF THIS E P û R T API STAFF CONTACTr Howard Feldman, Health and Environmental Sciences MEMBERS OF THE AIR MODELING TASK FORCE Kenneth Steinberg, Exxon Research and Enginering Company Thomas Baker, ARCO Oil and Gas Company Douglas Blewitt, Amoco Corporation Richard Carney, Phillips Petroleum Comany David Fontaine, Chevron Research and Technology Company Lee Gilmer, Texaco Research Marvin Hem, Shell Development Company Gilbert Jersey, Mobil Research and Development Company George Lauer, ARCO Robert Peace, U n d WE ARE INDEBTED TO CAPTAIN MICHAEL MOSS, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE, FOR HIS CONSIDERABLEEFFORTS DURING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PUBLICATION `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - iii Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale APZ PURL*454b 92 W O732290 0505442 I T M This volume of the final report provides documentation of some of the results of a two year project entitled Hazard ResDonse Modeliny Uncertainty ( A Quantitative Methodl Work that has been accomplished on the technical work tasks related to evaluating the performance of commonly used hazardous gas dispersion models is summarized Eight datasets are used in the evaluation Those field experiments that involve the release of dense-gas clouds are Burro, Coyote, Desert Tortoise, Goldfish, Maplin Sands, and Thorney Island Those field experiments that involve the release of passive clouds are Hanford (Kr85 tracer studies) and Prairie Grass Data from these experiments are placed in a common format as a Modelers’ Data Archive (MDA), and an extensive set of software was developed to prepare data-files for each model evaluated Fourteen dispersion models are evaluated, including six publicly= available computer models (AFTOX, DEGADIS, HEGADAS, ,-I OB/DG, and SLAB) and six proprietary computer models (AIRTOX, CñARM, FOCüS, GACTAR, PHAST, and TRACEI A simple Gaussian plume formula and a set of nomograms (Britter and McQuaid) are also evaluated for comparative purposes The statistical evaluation indicates that there are a few models that can successfully predict concentrations with a mean bias of 20 percent or less, a relative mean square error of 50 percent or less, and little variability of the residual errors with the input parameters These models are identified in Section VII It is also clear that model performance is not dependent upon model complexity It is necessary to point out that this evaluation exercise has been by no iv Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - means independent, since all of the models have been previously tested by the developers with at least one of the datasets Furthermore, some of the results may be fortuitous, since, in a few cases, certain models have been applied t o source scenarios for which they were not originally intended TABLE OF CONTENTS Section I II III Title Paqe ES-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION A OBJECTIVES B BACKGROUND EPA Model Evaluation Program Model Sensitivity Studies Summary of Field Data A Methodology for Evaluating Heavy Gas Dispersion Models Comprehensive Model Evaluation Studies CMA Model Evaluation Studies C SCOPE DATASETS CRITERIA FOR CHOOSING DATASETS A B DESCRIPTION OF INDIVIDUAL STUDIES Burro and Coyote Desert Tortoise and Goldfish Hanford Kr85 Maplin Sands Prairie Grass Thorney Island C CREATION OF A MODELERS’ DATA ARCHIVE D METHODS FOR CALCULATING REQUIRED VARIABLES Burro Coyote Desert Tortoise Goldfish Hanford Kra5 Maplin Sands Prairie Grass Thorney Island E SUMMARY OF DATASETS MODELS A CRITERIA FOR CHOOSING MODELS B DESCRIPTION OF MODELS EVALUATED AFTOX 3.1 (Air Force Toxic Chemical Model AIRTOX Britter & McQuaid Model CHARM 6.1 (Complex and Hazardous Air Release Model DEGADIS 2.1 (DEnse GAS DISpersion Model) `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale 1 3 5 8 11 11 14 14 16 22 25 28 32 36 39 40 41 41 42 43 46 47 48 49 53 53 57 58 60 62 65 67 API PURL*45Yb 92 III B 0732290 0505YYY T75 W (CONTINUED) FOCUS 2.1 69 GASTAR 2.2 (GAseous Transport from Accidental Releases) 71 GPM (Gaussian Plume Model) 73 HEGADAS (NTIS) 73 10 INPUFF 2.3 75 11 OB/DG (Ocean Breeze/Dry Gulch) 76 12 PHAST 2.01 (Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool) 76 13 SLAB (February 1990) 77 14 TRACE III 79 C APPLICATION OF MODELS TO DATASETS 81 MDA Inter£ace 81 Initializing Individual Models 89 D SUMMARY OF MODELS 114 IV STATISTICAL MODEL EVALUATION 119 A PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND CONFIDENCE LIMITS 119 B RESULTS OF EVALUATION 121 Evaluation of Concentration Predictions 125 Cloud Widths ( o y ) 141 V SCIENTIFIC EVALUATION BY MEANS OF RESIDUAL PLOTS 145 A PROCEDURES 145 B RESULTS 145 VI SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS USING MONTE CARLO PROCEDURES 163 A OVERVIEW 163 B CHOICE OF MODELS AND INPUT PARXMETERS 163 C IMPLEMENTATION 165 D RESULTS 166 VI1 SUMMARY OF EVALUATION 175 A CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS 175 B WIDTHS 177 C SCREENING MODEL RECOMMENDATIONS 179 REFERENCES 181 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale A P I PUBL*454b 92 0732290 5 4 901 APPENDICES Appendix A B C Paqe MODELERS’ DATA ARCHIVE FILES 187 MODELAPPLICATION INFORMATION - 205 TABULATION OF THE OBSERVED AND PREDICTED CLOUD-WIDTHS AND CONCENTRATIONS TABULATION OF THE PERFORMANCE MEASURES AND THE RESULTS OF CONFIDENCE LIMITS ANALYSIS 315 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - D Title Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale A P I P U B L * b TE! 0732290 5 4 b 8 LIST OF FIGURES Title Fisure Instrumentation Array for the 1980 LNG Dispersion Tests at NWC, China Lake (Reference 14) Instrumentation Array for the Coyote Series at NWC, China Lake I1Old1ILocations Mark those used in the Burro Series (Reference 15) `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - 10 11 I Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS -7 Paqe ;ensor Array for the Desert Tortoise Series Experiments Cionfiguration of Meteorological Towers and Kr85Detectors for the Hanford Kr85 Trials (Reference 18) Initial Configuration of the Maplin Sands Site Revised Configuration of the Maplin Sands Site (After Trail 35) Con£igixation of Instrumentation Used for the Phase I Trials at Thorney Island (Reference 25) Correlation for continuous releases from Bratter and McQuaid (Reference 42) Correlation for instantaneous release from Britter and McQuaid (Reference 42) Model performance measures, Geometric Mean Bias MG = exp(PnC, - QnC,) and geometric variance VG = exp[(QnC, - 4nC,12] for concentration predictions and Observations for the continuous dense gas group of datasets (Burro, Coyote, Desert Tortoise, Goldfish, Maplin Sands, Thorney Island) Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated The solid line is the "minimum VG" curve, from Equation (33) The dashed lines represent factor of twoi1agreement between mean predictions and observations Model performance measures, Geometric Mean 15 17 C Bias MG = exp(QnC, - QnC,) and geometric variance VG = exp[(QnC, - QIIC,)~]for concentration predictions and observations for the instantaneous dense gas data from Thorney Island Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated The solid VG" curve, from Equation line is the The dashed lines represent "factor of (33) ' Not for Resale 20 24 27 27 34 64 64 127 12 two" agreement between mean predictions and observations Model performance measures, Geometric Mean 13 Bias MG = exp(@nC, - @nC,) and geometric variance VG = exp[(QnC, - Q~IC,)~] for concentration predictions and observations at distances greater than or equal to 200 m a) Continuous dense gas group of datasets (Burro, Coyote, Desert Tortoise, Goldfish, Maplin Sands, Thorney Island) b) Instantaneous dense gas data from Thorney Island Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated The solid line is the "minimum VG" curve, from Equation (33) The dashed lines represent "factor of two" agreement between mean predictions and observations Model performance measures, Geometric Mean 14 Bias MG = exp(@nC, - QnC,) and geometric variance VG = exp[(QnC, - QIIC,)~] for concentration predictions and observations at distances less than 200 m a) Continuous dense gas group of datasets (Burro, Coyote, Desert Tortoise, Goldfish, Maplin Sands, Thorney Island) b) Instantaneous dense gas data from Thorney Island Ninety-five percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated The solid line is the "minimum VG" curve, from Equation (33) The dashed lines represent "factor of two" agreement between mean predictions and observations Model performance measures, Geometric Mean 15 Bias MG = exp(QnC, - @nC,) and geometric variance VG = exp[ (Qnc, - P ~ c , ) ~ ] for concentration predi.&ions and observations a) Continuous passive gas group of datasets (Prairie Grass and Hanford-continuous) b) Instantaneous passive gas dataset from Hanford Ninetyfive percent confidence intervals on MG are indicated The solid line is the "minimum VG" curve, from Equation (33) The dashed lines represent "factor of two" agreement between mean predictions and observations Model performance measures, Geometric Mean Bias MG = exp(QnC, - @nC,) and geometric variance VG = exp[(QnC, - QnC,)2] for concentration `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale 130 132 135 A P I PUBL*YSYb 92 0?32i390 0505?5b L13T W x :RIAL OBS MTOX niszx DlSMiS G M A X G?x HEGiiDAC oms'; SLAB HC2 2CY 800 15.i 36.2 20.: 69.7 21.9 54.7 26.5 92.1 23 - 90.7 23.4 90.7 37.4 127.8 20.0 70.0 17.4 65.4 HC3 2G0 03 13.7 38.7 16.0 55.5 21.8 84.7 21.0 73.6 18.5 72.1 18.6 72.1 30.1 102.0 20.0 70.0 13 - 50.3 200 8CO 19.6 55.2 19.9 69.1 21.8 84.7 21.1 73.1 18.6 72.1 18.6 72.2 30.1 102.0 20.0 70.0 17.8 67.2 200 803 15.5 37.8 i2.2 42.3 i1.3 i1.8 43.3 i1.6 15.2 11.7 45.2 17.4 57.5 3.4 32.4 12.7 47.7 50 100 200 O0 800 6.2 12.0 22.3 39.0 71.0 10.2 18.9 35.2 65.5 122.2 6.8 14.7 30.5 63.ó 122.3 10.6 19.7 37.0 8.0 128.7 8.0 15.9 31.7 62.8 123.2 16.0 31.7 62.8 123.2 15.9 28.6 51.9 94.3 171.6 9.3 18 a 35.5 67.9 128.2 7.9 15.9 31.8 62.7 120.6 50 100 200 400 800 6.6 12.0 21 o 41.0 86.0 4.3 7.8 14.4 26.8 49.8 4.5 9.9 20.8 42.2 83.7 7.1 13 - 24 - 46.1 86.1 5.5 11.0 21.8 43.2 84.7 5.5 11.0 21.8 43.2 84.7 10.9 19.4 35.2 64.6 119.6 6.0 11.9 23.2 44.7 85.1 5.3 10.7 21.4 42.2 81.2 so 9.0 18.0 33.0 63.0 116.0 4.3 7.8 14.4 26.8 49.8 5.5 10.9 21.8 43.1 84.7 7.1 13 a 24.8 46.1 86.1 5.5 10.9 21.8 43.1 84.6 s 21.8 43.2 84.7 10.9 19.3 35.L 64.6 119.5 6.0 11.9 23 - 44.6 85.1 4.6 9.3 18.6 36.8 70.8 12.3 20.0 35.0 61.0 97.0 7.0 12.9 23.9 44.5 83.0 6.6 14.6 30.4 61.5 121.9 10.6 19.7 36.8 68.8 128.5 8.0 15.9 31.7 62.8 123.2 O 16.0 31.7 62.8 123.2 15.9 28.6 51.9 94.3 171.6 9.3 18.3 35.5 67.9 128.2 8.3 16.8 33.4 66.0 127 100 20G 400 800 8.6 16.0 26.3 45.0 92.0 5.3 9.8 18.1 33.6 62.6 9.7 20.6 42.3 85.: L68.2 10.6 19.7 j6.3 68.8 328.1 11.0 21.9 43.6 86.3 169.4 11.0 22.0 43.6 86.3 169.4 21.8 39.9 72.8 132.6 241.7 13.4 26.1 49.7 93.3 173.6 8.1 16.5 32.9 64.6 124.6 90 1CU 200 400 8G3 13.7 26.0 49.0 72.0 116.0 7.7 14.2 26.4 49.1 91.5 3.8 20.: 42.4 85.: 168.2 10.ó 11.0 21.9 43.6 86.3 169.3 11.0 22.0 43.6 86.3 169.4 21.8 39.9 72.8 132.7 241.7 13.5 26.1 49.7 93.4 173.6 8.1 16.4 32.7 64.4 124.0 5-3 8.7 IC3 2c3 ii3 16.0 4.8 8.8 16.4 30.4 26.6 5.5 11.0 21.8 43.2 84.6 5 11.3 10.9 19.4 35.2 64.ó li9.j 6.0 11.9 23.2 44.6 95.1 4.0 9.7 19.4 38.1 73.8 HC4 HCS `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - eG7 PC8 PG9 100 200 400 800 PG10 50 100 200 400 800 ?G15 2G1 ó PG19 50 ic: 32.0 55.0 85.3 46.2 68.8 i9.7 26.a 68.7 'i28.2 4.2 7.; 5.7 i3.3 23.5 41.3 24 07 46.2 36.1 0S.5 314 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale I l o 21.3 43.2 34.7 X 23s 7.9 14.0 27.0 49.0 90.0 4.5 7.4 13.7 25.4 47.2 16.2 36.0 72.0 i34.3 214.3 13.: 18.5 34.3 64 119.3 50 100 200 4ûO 803 7G2 55 1co 2c3 4c3 803 064 PG4 PG49 PGSO 50 100 200 400 800 50 2CO 4CO 800 OG5i 11.4 22.0 43.0 73 o 126.0 5-3 9.7 17.9 33.3 62.1 8.9 17.0 35.0 72.0 4.9 9.1 16.8 118 o 58.1 8.2 15.0 28.0 55.0 115 o 8.3 15.4 28.ó 53.2 9.5 18.0 32.0 60.0 77.0 4.5 8.2 15.2 28.3 52.7 10.4 19.0 35.3 ó5.5 139.0 4.6 8.4 i5.5 28.3 53 - ? 50 1cû 2CO 400 800 OGÓ1 5.1 9.3 17.2 32.0 59.6 89.0 200 o 50 100 200 400 800 100 10.5 21.0 40.0 50 100 200 400 800 : 50 100 2co u0 8G.3 31 - 4.5 4.2 ::.s 7.3 3: G 81 ó -"." _ " 1.6 8.6 16.0 29.5 J3.7 31.4 61.6 4.3 3.3 15.9 31.4 6i.ó - L 3.9 7.7 15.1 29.2 55.8 21.8 39.3 72.5 132.7 241.7 13.5 26.1 49.7 93.4 i73.7 112.3 10.9 i9.4 35.2 6.0 11.9 44.1 85.1 11.4 22.7 44.6 86.4 1ó8.G 11.1 22.0 43.6 a6.3 163.3 163.< 4.5 9.9 20.8 42.1 83.7 7.1 13.3 24.7 46.1 86.1 5.5 11.0 21.8 43.1 84.7 5.5 L1.C 21.8 43.2 84.7 119.6 4.3 7.1 13.2 24.7 5.5 5.5 11.3 21.8 43.2 84.7 10.9 19.4 35.2 64.6 119.5 5.5 10.9 19.3 35.1 64.6 119.5 9.7 20.6 42.083.6 L2.ó 46.1 86.0 11.0 21.8 43.2 84.7 4.i 9.6 20.4 41.8 83.4 7.1 13.2 24.7 46.1 86.i 5.5 10.9 21.8 43.2 84.7 4.0 9.5 20.4 41.7 a3.3 7.1 13.3 24.8 46.1 86.2 5.5 io.9 21.8 43.1 84.7 3.3 7.0 14.9 30.5 60.7 4.6 8.6 16.0 29.8 35.8 8.0 15.9 31.4 61.5 4.1: 4.6 4.3 3.0 15.8 8.6 15.3 29.9 55.8 8.3 i5.9 31.4 61.5 - JA.4 ái.6 Not for Resale 4.6 A-.4 22.3 43.8 86.3 11.2 21.8 43.2 84.7 5.5 i1.3 21.S 43.i 84.7 4.: 8.2 15.9 31.4 6i.6 4.2 &:.Y :- 21.4 61.5 s 7.5 13.3 23.1 42.; 77.3 :9.7 36.9 68.9 128.7 22.3 t2.ó 35.3 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS 4.3 8.0 15.9 64.6 6.0 11.9 23.2 44.7 85.1 6.0 11.9 23.2 44.7 9.2 18.3 36.3 69.5 7.2 14.8 29.1 57.3 5.8 5.1 10.: 2U.7 40.6 78.a 5.2 10.5 21.0 85.1 41.4 80.0 64.6 119.5 6.0 11.9 23.2 44.7 85.1 4.6 9.4 18.7 36.9 71.3 7.7 i3.1 23.2 42.2 71.3 3.9 7.7 15.1 29.2 55.8 4.a 9.ó 19.2 37.7 73.0 7.6 i3.3 23.: 42.2 3.9 7.7 4.: l.:_ i7.a ZJ.8 1c.4 13.3 ?e - 29.2 8.9 17.a 34.3 i7.3 _ API P U B L * 0732290 5 202 317 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - r- 319 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale A l observacions, niodel mean 08s 10.44 XTOX 10.35 XLSTOX 9.48 3&M 10.36 CSARM 10.05 DEûAûIS IOCUS GI4 GAS"&¿ zGiLDAs INPUFF OBDG OIIAST SLXB m c z Slodc nodel `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - mox OBS AIRTOX B&M CHARM DEWIS FOCUS G2M GASTAR REGADAS INPUFF OBDG PSAST SLAB TRACE 10.83 11.19 10.07 sigma 1.25 1.70 2.13 1.62 1.71 I 60' 1.99 1.64 10.60 1-41 10.59 9.47 9.54 10.58 10.10 10.47 1.60 1-58 1: BIJRRO mean 11.38 12.13 12.02 11.53 11.68 12.29 12.90 11.64 11.72 12.11 11.01 11.30 12.06 11.45 11.75 Block model OBS 2: COYOTE mean 10.89 mox 11.44 XIRTOX 11.23 ELM 10.75 CaARM 10.97 DEGADIS 11.69 ?OCUS 12.54 G2M 10.70 GASTAR 11-48 EIEGADAS 11.15 INPUFF 9.96 OBDG 10.18 3HAST 11.23 SUS 10.95 ma 12.13 3lock model 1.32 1.72 1.41 1.47 0.00 0.10 O 96 0.08 0.40 -0.39 -0.75 0.37 4.16 -0.15 0.97 0.90 -0 13 0.34 -0.03 (Nsigma 0.85 0.93 0.83 1.47 1.12 1.03 1.22 0.92 O 69 1.09 1.06 1.32 1.08 0.88 O 60 vg 1.00 2.56 2.08 1.95 1.44 2.91 fa2 1.000 0.476 0.571 O 667 0.762 O 238 0.238 1.47 1.49 2.41 1.77 1.61 -31 1.31 1.59 O 810 0.476 0.476 0.762 0.476 0.857 0.667 w 1.300 1.100 2.623 1.087 1.485 O 677 o 174 1.450 3.356 O 862 ó28 2.468 O 874 i -108 0.973 o a i o w I o00 0.471 0.530 O 857 o 744 O 401 0.219 O 771 O 712 O 481 1.451 1.381 o 505 O 931 o O89 11) bias 0.64 0.00 0.66 1.10 -0.56 -0.34 0.13 -0.08 vg -0.80 -1.66 0.18 -0.59 -0.27 0.93 0.70 -0.35 -0.07 -1-24 (N- fa2 1.000 1.00 1.46 -39 1-10 1.03 2.08 42.16 1.27 1.72 1.38 3.32 2.49 -37 1.19 6.40 O 727 0.182 1.000 1.000 O 273 0.091 0.818 O 455 O 636 O 455 0.364 0.182 o 909 O -273 vg 1.00 2.34 3.91 2.39 5.34 3.51 1.20 2.20 1.39 1.20 1.37 3.19 1.30 L.36 1-24 fa2 1.000 0.500 0.125 0.500 0.125 0.900 0.875 0.500 0.750 1.900 0.500 0.250 0.375 0.025 1.300 irq 1.000 0.574 O 712 1.141 O 319 o 447 o 190 1.203 0.9ï4 0.764 2.527 2.019 O 705 0.936 o 288 8) bias 0.00 -o 48 -0.30 O 69 1.23 -0.65 -0.10 -0.54 -0.07 0.30 0.10 -0.36 0.47 -0.12 0-21 321 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS fa2 1.000 0.661 0.242 0.742 O 613 0.629 0.419 0.524 0.315 0.742 0.242 0.290 0.492 O 702 0.581 VB is a i (N- 0.71 0.62 0.60 1.02 0.75 0.57 0.95 0.88 1.01 1.15 0.72 0.36 1.00 1.78 17.68 1.53 2.49 1-84 6.51 2.14 1.28 1.58 4.63 4.98 2.14 1.68 2.35 21) bias o O0 -0.75 -0.64 -0.15 -0 30 -0.91 -1.52 -0.26 -0.34 -0 73 0.37 0.08 -o 68 -0.07 4.37 sigma 3: DESEET TORTOISZ mean sigma OBS 10.53 0.87 i4Frox 11-01 1.62 XIRTOX 10.83 1.97 3&M 9.84 I 48 C W 9.30 l.i3 DEGADIS 11.17 1.77 POCUS 10.63 1.23 GPM 11.07 1.33 GASTAR iO.59 1-35 3GiiDAS 10.22 1.14 z>TPClïr 10.43 1.63 OBDG 10.39 1.83 I FAST IO 06 0.77 S;yd 10.05 I 51 T-mc 10.22 1-92 (N- 124) 3ias Not for Resale nag 1.000 O 619 o 743 1.985 3.429 0.324 O 902 0.533 O 336 1.354 1.102 o -00 1.501 J 387 1.36i A P I PUBL*lfSltb 92 W 2 05057bL ôT7 W 4: mox AIXTOX 3&14 CaRRM DEWIS ;.ocus GBX Gasm :sExms =muFF OBDG GSL3FZCi-i mean 8.2.1 7.05 6.30 7.06 6.39 7.92 7.56 ÏO 7.75 7.75 o 72 6.98 7.31 7.30 7.31 Sigma 1.66 1.90 1.74 1.79 1.20 r 53 2.18 1.50 1.73 i.19 1.58 i.70 2.20 1.53 1.52 5: wLm SANDS, LVG mean 10.66 10.37 8.53 10.22 10.49 10.86 12.13 9.96 10.73 10.35 9.36 9.50 9.99 9.90 11.48 Block model OBS sigma 0.88 1.06 1.54 1.09 1.29 0.94 1.29 1.02 0.85 1.14 1.02 1.33 1.39 1.16 O 64 SANDS, LPG sil$m mox 9.89 8.58 10.49 9.96 10.56 10.59 9.54 10.45 10.58 8.89 9.1s 10.46 9.82 9.84 7: Txormz mean LO 04 9.76 9.32 10.27 9.23 10.50 10.72 10 37 10.26 LO 34 9.77 9.43 ;1.53 3.a3 a 37 0.87 1.21 1.49 1.X 1.28 1.31 1.o5 1.19 1.06 1.27 1.17 1.38 1.35 0.88 0.83 ISImD aigma 1.46 1.31 1.28 1.44 0.35 1.93 i.28 1.24 1.34 :.75 :.:7 1.57 I 2: 0.99 0.31 (Nu w bias o O0 1.06 1.81 1.36 1.92 0.59 0.56 1.42 0.S7 0.36 1.40 1.13 0.81 0.82 0.30 (NM biaa : 27) vg 0.00 0.29 2.13 O 44 0.17 -0.21 -1.47 0.70 -0.07 0.30 1.30 1.16 O 67 O 75 -0.82 (NI bias 1.00 1.27 244.60 1.47 1-51 1.16 22.67 1.89 1.13 1.67 6.30 6.05 2.43 2.72 2.79 w La2 1.000 0.824 1.000 1.331 0.118 8.396 0.706 1.554 0.765 1.185 0.941 0.914 0.176 0.230 ~~ 0.471 2.321 1.000 O 929 0.765 2.357 O 059 3.677 0.235 3.198 O -353 1.950 O 2.226 0.471 0.141 ~ 44) vg 1.00 1.66 48.56 1.36 2.32 1.54 4.34 2.54 1022 1.50 10.72 7.30 1.64 1.80 2.47 0.00 O 45 1.76 -0.1s 0.38 -0.22 -0.25 0.80 -0 II -0 24 1.45 1.19 -0.12 0.52 0.50 (N= bias "g 0.00 0.29 0.72 -0.37 0.76 -0.46 1.00 1.18 6.68 1.07 3.30 1.32 L.ï8 1.76 -0.67 -0.32 -0.12 0.90 0.27 1.6i -0.99 0.21 0.09 L.L4 i.23 O:.: i4.37 3.36 t.33 2.21 322 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS w Ia2 1.00 1.000 z 0 4.44 0.500 2.397 31.25 0.000 o 3.2 3.30 o 2.384 54.75 o O00 o 355 1.55 o 500 :.a12 1.95 0.500 1.750 8.48 o O00 4.125 1.23 a ~ 447 1.51 o 750 1.440 7.65 o 000 4.044 4.46 o 12s 3.397 2.77 0.500 2.229 2.08 0.500 2.268 2005 O -375 2.226 Not for Resale ta2 1.000 O 614 0.136 0.795 O 653 0.795 O 477 0.364 O 818 O 7'13 o o91 0.205 O 636 O 727 O 696 aig 1.300 1.575 5.329 0.357 I 460 0.906 C 780 2.233 0.892 O 785 4.254 3.297 0.tì88 :.1.0a8 551 €a2 1.000 1.900 0.467 I 300 0.400 I) 733 O 729 O 735 9.867 o 923 3.400 oco 2.467 3.723 3.52; =q L 000 1.331 2.060 a 2.137 Y 029 2.509 3.723 2.384 301 :.506 3.319 :.271 :.319 378 : : `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Slock niocel 08s A P I PUBL*454b = O732290 5 733 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - TES 3F-XFGRk!!CS MEAS;JRES TOR T% PXEDICTZLI C3NENT-QTIONS FOR T9Z CONTIXUGUS DENSZ GAS -3ELZASZS ( B W O , C3YOTS, 3ESZXT TGRTOISZ, WLDFLSH, Y ! T , I N SANDS, M D TEOTWEY IS'LAND) , I N C X D I Y G ALL D O W " D DISTANCZS THE LONGZST A V A I W L Z A E U G X G T L ì W A S USED 323 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale .U1 onservations, nodal nean OBS 10.25 mox 10.32 XLXTOX 9.48 3&M 10.36 C3ARH 10.05 DEGADIS 10.83 ?ocos 11.18 G2M 3.87 GASTAR 10.61 FZGADAS 10.59 Zmm? 9.46 OBDG 9.54 PHUT 10.58 SIAB 10.08 ZRAG 10.47 3lock model OBS mox AïRTOX 5&M CEARM DEGADIS FOCUS G2M GASTAR HEGADAS INPU" OBDG PBAST SIAB `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - m c E Slock aodei OBS mox AIRTOX 3&M CiIARM DEWIS cocos G2M GASTAR HEWAC INPUET OBDG FHAST SLnB mcz Block modei OBS mox (Na ) sigma 1.20 1.69 2.13 1.62 1.71 I O6 1.99 1.55 1.11 1.60 1.57 1.82 1.72 1.41 1.47 I: BURRO mean 10.88 12 o8 12.02 11.53 11.68 12.30 12.90 11.10 11.76 12.11 10.97 11.30 12.06 11.40 11.75 2: COYOTS mean 9.98 11.41 11.23 10.75 10.97 11.70 12.49 10.05 11-49 ~~ 11-15 9.93 10.18 11.23 10.87 12.13 sigma 0.17 0.95 0.83 1.47 1.12 1.03 1.20 1.07 0.70 1.09 1.06 1.32 1.08 0.91 0.60 siỗma 0.82 0.68 1.10 0.11 o 0.60 1.12 0.83 0.57 0.95 0.87 1-01 1.15 0.15 0.36 : DECERT TORTOISZ mean 10.16 10.86 XIXTCX io a 3&&l 9.34 c:-IlLRE.I 9.20 3EGADIS 11.17 'OCZS 10.60 LO.30 10.53 10.22 10 10.39 10 10.62 10.22 - siqma 0.96 1.64 1.37 1-48 1.13 1.77 1.27 1.67 1.35 1.14 1.62 1.33 0.Ï7 1.53 1.32 nias vq o O -0.07 o 78 1.00 2.44 22.77 1-81 2.93 2.32 13.60 2.11 1.72 2.37 ~ 5.04 2.78 1.93 -53 -0.10 0.21 -0.58 -0.93 0.38 -0.35 -0.34 0.79 0.71 -0.32 0.17 -0.22 (N21) bias vg 1-00 6.27 4-86 4.06 2.80 10 111.47 1.55 2.98 6-89 1.49 2.29 6.58 1.97 2.89 o O0 -1.20 -1.13 -0.65 -0.79 -1.42 -2.02 -0.22 -0.88 -1.23 -0.09 -0.42 -1.18 -0.52 I -o a7 (N- "9 1.00 8.29 7.05 -1.43 -1.25 -0.78 -0.99 -1.52 -2 51 2-40 3.24 21.27 3661.70 1.09 11.58 -33 1.14 1.23 6.76 2.32 208.97 o8 -1.52 -1.18 0.05 -0.21 -1.26 -0.89 -2.15 (NI Dias a) vo 0.00 -0-70 o 2c2 o 645 0.492 0.589 3.287 0.ä56 0.894 O 0.355 0.298 0.176 0.581 0.516 fa2 1.000 0.143 0.190 0.238 0.381 0.143 0.095 o 857 o -333 0.190 o a i o 0.524 0.333 0.571 0.429 5a2 o00 o O00 0.273 0.545 0.364 o O00 o91 1.000 o O00 o O00 1.000 0.727 0.182 0.182 300 fa2 1.90 2.74 4-77 1-55 2-45 5.36 1.42 1.35 1-21 1.:9 o00 500 -375 o o 125 -0.2; :.;a -0.72 4-21 1.12 1-31 1.;6 :.JI23 -0.60 0.32 0.87 -Io1 -3.43 -0.13 -0 -0.36 3.1: -,l 45 -.l 25 325 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS 0.540 sg 1.000 O 331 2.172 0.300 1.230 0.560 0.396 1.464 0.703 0.714 * 201 2.344 0.724 1.187 0.806 mg 1.000 O 301 O 322 o O 452 0.242 O 133 0.802 O 416 O 0.914 O 0.307 0.594 O 11) bias 0.00 -o fa2 1.000 Not for Resale o 500 O 755 3.525 3.750 I.JC3 2.525 1.SC3 3.530 - - n n "b" 39 1.000 0.240 O O 460 O 371 0.179 0.381 0.328 0.219 0.308 1.353 0.814 0.284 O 1 0.116 w 1.900 o 497 0.217 1.381 2.284 0.364 o 849 5.377 u ó51 3.342 3.738 I.; a I 113 ó37 2.347 OBS mox AI3TOX 3&M CHÄFIM DEWïS FOCUS CZM GASTAR ilEmAs INPOFF OBDG P.WT SLAB TRAm Block model OBS AETOX AfRTOX %M CflAIW DEWIS FOCUS GPM GASTAR EíEGXûAS mm OBDG o m S U TRAC-: 4: WLDFXSH mean 8.11 7.05 6.30 7.06 ~~ 6.19 7.52 56 6.70 7.75 7.75 6.72 6.98 7.31 7.30 7.31 Jirrma -1:66 1.90 1.58 1.10 2.20 0.00 1.06 1.81 1.06 1.92 0.59 0.56 1.42 0.37 0.36 1.40 1.13 0.81 1.52 0.80 1.74 - -9 1.20 1.53 2.18 1.SO 1.73 1.19 1.53 : WLXN SiLNnSi LNG mean sigma 10.66 10.37 8.53 10.22 10.49 10.86 12.13 9.96 10.73 10.35 9.36 9.50 ~ 9.99 9.90 11.48 - OB mox -9xRTOX B&M CIIARM DEWXS 3oC'Jc G2M GASTAR WGaDAS INPUET OBUG PIIAST 10.34 9.89 8.58 10.49 9.96 10.56 '0.59 9.54 10.45 10.58 8.89 9.15 10.46 1.39 1.16 0.64 ST;iLB 9.82 TRACZ 9.84 Block 7: ?HORNEY model mean OBS mox AlXTOX 36ì3 CZIARM DEWIS 3X3S GPM G S Z S ?!GADAS 5Np!!ì?1" OBDG ?.%ST s-a TMCz 10.04 9.76 9.32 10.21 9.28 10.50 10.72 10.57 10.16 10.34 9.77 3.43 11.33 3.33 9.37 1.1s 1.28 1.31 i 65 1.19 1.06 1.27 1.17 1.38 1.35 0.88 0.83 ISLAND Sigma 1.46 1-31 1.28 1.44 o.as 1.53 1.28 1.24 1.24 1.75 L.1? 1.57 1.22, 0.99 0.32 0.500 o O00 o i2s 1.55 1.95 8.48 1.23 1.51 o O00 7.65 4.46 2.77 2.08 2.05 0.70 i ) 07 0.30 1.30 bias o O0 O 45 0.875 o ?SO o O00 0.2.25 0.500 0.500 0.375 w fa2 1.000 O 824 0.118 O 706 1.51 0.765 1.16 O 22.67 O -176 1.89 0.471 1.11 1.000 1.67 0.765 6.30 O 059 6.05 0.235 2.43 0.353 2.72 O 412 2.79 O 471 vg 1.30 1.66 48.56 1.36 2.02 1.54 4.34 2.94 -0.21 1.21 4-24 1.45 1.19 -0.12 0.52 0.50 1.50 10.72 7.30 1.64 1.30 w 1.300 2.897 ó.a.2 2.384 o O00 6.355 0.500 i a12 o 500 i.750 44) 1.76 -0 15 0.38 -0.22 -0.25 0.80 (Nu L.300 1.00 1.27 244.60 1.47 0.29 2.13 0.44 (W- ia2 1.30 4.44 31.25 3.30 0'4.75 o O0 1.16 O 67 O 75 -0.82 0.87 1.21 1.49 og (ti= 17) bias - 0.17 -0.21 -1.47 1-33 -_ 81 0.82 0.88 1.06 1.54 1.09 1.29 0.94 1.29 1.02 0.85 1-14 1.02 6: MAELM SANQS, LPG mean signla Black IUOCial (Nu bias La2 '.O00 0,614 0.136 0.795 0.059 0.795 0.477 0.364 3.818 0.773 0.991 0.205 0.636 0.727 2.47 0.636 vg ,Sa2 1.000 :.u00 3.467 4.125 1.447 1.440 4.344 3.097 2.239 2.268 2.226 mg 1.000 331 8.396 1.954 i.ias O 814 0.230 2.021 O 929 1.357 3.677 3.198 1.950 2.126 o 441 w 1.300 1.575 5.325 o.as7 1.460 0.806 0.780 2.233 0.892 0.785 4.254 3.297 0.888 leoa8 1.653 15) bias 0.00 0.29 0.72 -0.17 0.76 -0 46 -0.67 -0.32 -Q 0.00 0.27 1.61 -9.99 9.21 3.08 1.30 1.18 6.68 1.07 3.30 1.92 1.78 1.76 1.14 1.23 :.io i4.37 3.36 1.23 2.2: L.300 3.400 3.733 -3.733 3.733 3.367 3.933 3.4c3 3.300 3.257 - 3.723 d 5?? "1" L.300 i.331 2.360 3.343 2.137 0.529 0.509 3.723 9.384 1.301 L.206 3.519 2.371 1.239 S78 326 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS API PUBL*YSYb 92 D 0732290 5 ï b 50b Not for Resale `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - 3Lock model A P I PUBLr4546 W 0732290 O505765 4 W `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - > P ~ : ? D I x2 - 327 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale model OBS mox Xï2TOX 3L U C m DEGXDIS XC3S GASTAR N P m PílAST SULB ?FaCr mean i o oa 1i.a~ 10.14 10.34 9.42 10.34 io a 9.53 11.20 10.53 9.40 10.77 sigma 1.14 1-98 1.37 1.20 1.i3 1.75 1.19 1.06 1.24 0.97 1.26 1.53 bras 0.00 -1.78 -0.06 -0.26 O 67 -0.26 -0.81 0.55 -1.12 2.45 11.22 2.29 1.66 4.16 -0.4s i-58 68 -0.69 2.33 2.92 o `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS vq 1-00 36 a3 1.23 1.20 Not for Resale fa2 1.000 0.033 0.869 0.934 0.541 0.344 0.410 0.557 0.180 0.770 0.689 0.459 w 1.000 0.i69 0.944 0.772 1.948 0.771 0.445 1.736 0.327 0.637 1.979 0.502 A P I PUBL%454b 92 = 0732290 LDOCrnI,Y !3-4 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - 331 Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale O505767 215 m A P I P U B L a 92 = 0732290 5 151 Au onservations, node1 mean sigma OBS AFTOX AIIZTOX B&M 9.48 9.16 8.22 9.02 8.78 9.56 9.93 8.92 9.56 9.33 8.37 8.16 9.30 9.09 9.78 1.08 1.48 1.92 1.24 1.50 1.39 CBARM DEGADIC FCCUS G2M GilsTAR HEGADAS INPUFF OBDG EHAST SLAB TRACE Block model OBC AFTOX AIRTOX B&M CEIaRM DEGAOIS FOCUS G2M a T A R FiEGADX INPUFF OBDG PHASP SLAB 1: BURRO mean 10 23 10.20 B&M CBARM DEWIC FûCUS GPM GASTAR HEC2Jlñ.S INPUFF OBDG PñAST SLAB TRACE 10.69 - 11.43 12 32 10.44 11.28 10.81 9.68 9.85 10.89 10.71 12 o5 0.70 0.68 0.81 0.83 0.40 0.68 0.86 0.61 O 67 0.49 0.52 0.80 0.90 1.11 O 66 0.32 3: DESERT TORTOISZ man sigma OBS 9.68 0.24 AETOX 9.44 0.52 0.74 AIRTOX 8.92 B&M 8.42 0.54 0.46 CSARM 8-24 DEGADIS 9.43 0.32 FOCUS 9.41 0.16 GET4 9.60 o so GASTAR 9.25 0.26 0.23 XEGfiAS 9.09 0.47 INPUFF 8.86 OBDG 9.06 0.19 P.yACT 9.30 0.16 SIAB 9.15 0.23 TRAG 9.22 0.24 Block model `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS 0.10 -0.08 -0.4s 0.56 -0.07 0.15 1.11 1.32 0.19 0.39 -0.30 5) bias o O0 -0.94 -0.79 vg 1.00 3-85 3.54 -23 1.52 1.59 1.93 2.17 1.27 1.69 1.89 2.18 1.34 1.10 2.10 1.00 0.28 -0.51 -0.66 -0.45 -0.45 -0.52 0.2s 0.82 -0.34 0.03 -0.80 (Nsigma 0.51 0.56 1.11 0.50 0.47 0.47 1.08 0.67 0.49 0.87 fa2 1.000 2.03 O -569 36.35 o -155 1.79 O 603 O -517 3.70 1.57 O 690 -38 o -534 0.379 3.01 1.29 0.810 1.45 0.793 6-85 0.190 0.172 8.52 O 431 2.52 0.724 1.65 O 534 2.49 0.33 1.26 O 46 (NI 0.86 0.70 0.78 2: COYOTE mean 10-59 11.17 10.91 10.41 m o x 1.60 11.01 9.22 9.95 10.74 10.89 10.67 10.68 10.75 9.98 9.41 10.56 Block AFTOX 1.23 11.16 11.02 OBS 1.44 1.29 1.22 1.30 1.31 1.53 sicnna 0:41 TRACS model 1.85 vg 1.00 8) bias 0.00 -0.57 -0.32 0.18 -0.10 -0.83 -1.73 0.15 -0.69 -0.22 o 91 0.74 -0.29 -0 il -1.45 (NI bias o O0 0.24 0.76 1.27 1.44 0.26 0.28 0.09 O 43 0.59 0.83 O 63 0.39 0.53 o 47 333 Not for Resale vg 1.00 1.50 2.85 1-13 1.03 2.20 70.27 1.27 1.91 1.41 3.27 2.60 2.57 1.22 10.14 4) vg 1.00 1.18 2.32 fa2 1.000 o -200 O 400 o SOO O 600 0.800 O 800 O 600 1.000 0.800 O 400 0.400 o 800 1.000 O 400 fa2 1.000 O 625 o O00 1.000 1.000 O 250 0.125 0.150 0.375 0.625 0.500 0.375 O 125 o 875 o 12s fa2 1.000 mg 1.000 1.389 3.543 1.591 2.013 O 924 O 640 1.752 0.929 1.162 3.047 3.144 1.208 1.483 o 743 iipg 1.000 0.392 O 455 2.725 1.319 o 600 0.518 o 639 O 639 0.592 I 282 2.273 O 714 I 031 0.452 mg 1.000 0.564 O 729 1.200 0.909 O 435 0.178 1.163 0.502 0.802 2.487 2.096 0.747 O 893 0.234 mg 1.000 1.276 1.000 O -250 2.138 5.51 o O00 3.554 4.239 - 0.000 1.295 1.08 1.000 1.319 1.il 1.000 1-10 1.000 o91 1.538 1.29 0.150 1.42 1.000 1.803 O 250 2.286 2.i3 1.57 0.500 1.871 1.20 1.000 471 1.32 1.000 I 699 1.25 1.300 1.595 A P I PUBLU4546 92 `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS 0732290 0505769 09B W Order No 841-45460 Not for Resale `,,-`-`,,`,,`,`,,` - Copyright American Petroleum Institute Provided by IHS under license with API No reproduction or networking permitted without license from IHS Not for Resale