THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOWNAGING EFFECT ON PRESENT AND FUTURE TOURISM PRODUCTS BACHELOR PAPER I submitted at the IMC Fachhochschule Krems (University of Applied Sciences) Bachelor Programme “Tourism and[.]
THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOWNAGING EFFECT ON PRESENT AND FUTURE TOURISM PRODUCTS BACHELOR PAPER I submitted at the IMC Fachhochschule Krems (University of Applied Sciences) Bachelor Programme “Tourism and Leisure Management“ by Firstname Surname Area of emphasis/focus/special field: Consumer Behaviour Coach: Firstname Surname Submitted on: 29.11.2013 Statutory Declaration “I declare in lieu of an oath that I have written this bachelor paper myself and that I have not used any sources or resources other than stated for its preparation I further declare that I have clearly indicated all direct and indirect quotations This bachelor paper has not been submitted elsewhere for examination purposes.” Datum: 29.11.2013 Judith OBERMAIR Table of Contents Introduction Background of the Study 2.1 Demographic Change 2.2 Definition of Downaging 2.3 Definition of Tourism Product 2.4 Status Quo of the Tourism Industry Problem Definition 3.1 Aim of the Research 3.2 Research Questions Research Methodology 4.1 Sampling and Recruiting Strategy 4.2 Strengths and Limitations of Focus Groups 10 4.3 Justification for the Selection of the Research Method 10 4.4 Data Collection 11 4.5 Data Analysis 11 Chapter Outline 12 Timetable of Bachelor Thesis II 14 List of References 16 I Introduction Introduction In the beginning of the last century, the majority of the population could expect a life span of 46.4 years for men and 52.5 years for women 100 years later these numbers have encountered a fundamental increase and have been nearly duplicated In 2050, the number of people aged over 100 years will have increased 16 times, for instance from 7,200 in the year 2000 to 114,700 in 2050 solely in Germany (Lehr, 2007, pp 1-2) This demographic change is often seen as a negative process by society, indeed the subjective age of old people is simultaneously decreasing (Horx, 2007a) This observed phenomenon of rejuvenating behaviour is called Downaging effect The Downaging process implies the development of new value systems, life patterns and inner attitudes (Horx, 2007b) Even if older people face progressively physical discomfort, they are generally as satisfied as the younger generation This observation is caused by the particular ability of humans to adapt step by step to changing realities and to protect their own self-respect in old age (Baltes, 1996, p 40) For the tourism industry the continuous growth of life expectancy is a major challenge As a result of the increasing importance of the older generation, their presence on the tourism market will augment and there will be drastic consequences for the product offerings (Smeral, 2003, p 154) This paper is set out to examine the influence of the Downaging effect on present and future tourism products It aims to give an insight into this fast developing phenomenon in today’s society So far, only little research has been conducted concerning the impacts of the Downaging effect on the tourism industry The results of this paper should assist tourism entities during the marketing research process in order to profit from this phenomena Above all, it will also emphasize the importance of the Downagers for this industry, who will increasingly carry on weight in the future This report is divided into three main segments Firstly, a literature review will be conducted in order to explain the most important concepts concerning this topic Secondly, the problem definition and the methodology will be clarified Thirdly, a chapter outline and project plan of Bachelor Paper II will be provided Background of the Study Background of the Study In this part of the paper, the most important concepts related to the research topic will be highlighted In the first instance, a look will be taken into the demographic aspect of the population Next, the historical development of Downaging will be explained Lastly, the term tourism product will be specified and a short overview of the current status in the tourism industry will be given 2.1 Demographic Change Statistical studies, which investigated the population growth by five-year age groups, observed a huge increase during the last 30 years Particularly the age groups between 65 and 69 years and 70 and 74 years showed a significant rise For instance, the number of German citizens between 65 and 69 increased from approximately 3,800,000 in 1990 to more than 5,000,000 in 2009 During the same period the number in Austria augmented from around 400,000 to nearly 500,000 In Germany, the number of people between 70 and 74 even doubled (Max Planck Society, 2013) Another interesting aspect concerning population aging is the life expectancy at certain ages In 1947, Austrian citizens at the age of 65 still had on average 12.81 years to live In comparison to the year 1947, the life span at the age of 65 in 2008 has been 19.51 years In Germany, this number in 2008 has been slightly lower, namely 19.15 (ibid.) On the contrary, other age groups for instance the 30 to 40 year old segment will encounter a significant decline up to 28% until the year 2020 Also other age groups under 30 years will experience a similar decrease (Pompe, 2012, p 31) Interestingly, already nowadays about 40% of the European population is over 50 years old In 2035, Germany will represent the oldest population worldwide (ibid., p 30) Background of the Study 2.2 Definition of Downaging The definition of the Downaging effect is the result of a long lasting process Therefore a short outlook of the most important steps is necessary to understand the development In 1991, Schiffman and Sherman (pp 187-188) examined already the emerging ageless market They emphasized the different characteristics of the new-age elderly, in comparison to the stereotype of elderly people The new-age elderly reveal other values like self-confidence, a younger self-perception and a younger physical appearance They are adventurous, curious about new experiences, less interested in personal belongings and hence represent a new consumer type In effect, age is perceived rather as a frame of mind than a physical condition The American trend researcher Faith Popcorn (Popcorn, & Marigold, 1996, p 263) identified Downaging already as a future trend in 1996 She defined Downagers as people who are feeling and acting 15 years younger as their chronological age This phenomenon implies the change of personal attitudes, wishes and beliefs and the continuous growth and affirmation to life (ibid., p 274) Also David Wolfe (1997, p 295) stated that elderly people start to have a more positive perception towards life than the younger generation For the older generation aging is an act of continuous self-realization During their Berlin Aging Study (BASE), Mayer et al (1999, p 506) empirically proved that aging is not necessarily observed as negative In their study, the majority of the participants were pleased with their lives and health They concluded that the conception of elderly people as lonely and re-drawn can be negated and that most of them are still active The marketing specialist Philip Kotler (2003, p 31) explained the creation of a new need through the Downaging trend as follows: during their aging process people wish to have a younger outlook and to be in a better health condition According to the aging experts John Rowe and Robert Kahn the successful aging process is based on three factors: the risk diminution of possible disabilities, the retention of vital functions and the active commitment to life (Kinsella, & Phillips, 2005, p 34) Background of the Study Leopold Rosenmayr (2007, p 8) defines Downaging as youthfulness and active accomplishment of aging instead of denying it The definition of Downaging by the internationally well-known futurologist Matthias Horx (2011, p 144) argues that today’s social age is 10 or 15 years lower than the age of the traditional society Elderly experience a higher quality of life and are happier than the younger generation, which is often frightened of the future Moreover, the older generation knows often better what they really want and where they stay in life (ibid., pp 138-139) In the 21st century the seventy-year-old will encounter less time of disability than the seventy-year-old at former ages The so-called “Compressed Morbidity” (ibid., p 137) expresses a phenomenon, where people continue to stay fit for a longer time in order to die quicker afterwards Generally, the collective aging process can be seen as a result of medical progress, improved hygiene, healthier nutrition, better security and peace conditions, as well as an ameliorated environment and is consequently the biographical result of prosperity (ibid., p 133) Through the Downaging effect the stages of life differ from the past Nowadays between 50 and 60 years, missed chances are compensated by new relationships, challenges and journeys Between 70 and 80 we find ourselves in the wisdom stage and need to make a decision between another mental development or senility Wisdom in this context implies the will and the possibility to not always be right The principal of polychrome biography declares that nobody is as old as his birth certificate would indicate (ibid., pp 141-142) Even though the term Downaging is not widespread in literature yet, there exist various other terms such as Best Ager, Silver Ager, Mature Consumer, Generation Gold or Generation 50 plus Hans-Georg Pompe (2012, p 19) defines Best Agers as people who are mostly over 50 years old Best Agers find themselves literally in the best age of their live and it is difficult to determine a precise age for this target group, because this depends on their subjective perception and their individual behaviour For the purpose of this paper the generation 50 plus will be taken into consideration concerning the Downaging effect Background of the Study 2.3 Definition of Tourism Product In order to determine the influence of the Downaging effect on tourism, it is firstly necessary to define the term tourism product According to Chris Cooper and Michael Hall (2008, p 40) the tourism product is a combination of goods and services and consequently tangible and intangible aspects are delivered as a total experience to the tourist In this context also the stages before and after the actual booking need to be considered as they have a huge impact on the purchase of future products 2.4 Status Quo of the Tourism Industry Dieter Popp declares that the growing society of Downagers, who are experienced travellers, creates a new demand for tourism products such as short trips or offers with spiritual content (Popp, 2007) The senior, mature, elderly or so called 50 plus market has been defined by Goeldner and Brent Ritchie (2009, pp 309-310) as an essential and growing market trend in the tourism industry In particular, they mention parents whose wanderlust revives when their children have become adults By virtue of the higher life expectancy of the population, elderly often alter their personal orientation and favour a secondary residence for holidays and more family time together with their grandchildren (Yeoman, 2008, p 5) In the next years, holiday destinations need to address various generations, from children up to their grandparents (ibid., p 36) The tourism industry became aware of this new target group a few years ago, as people of this segment are in possession of valuable resources such as time, money and wanderlust Travelling was not self-evident in the past and the baby boomer generation tries to catch up on everything they have missed Furthermore, in comparison to the past, the older generation of today is much more mobile, better informed, high spending and conscious about their own role and importance in society In contrast to the workforce, senior citizens dispose of an assured income from pensions and have less influence on economic stability in case of recession Additionally, older people tend to travel in low season, which can compensate the capacity of tourism entities (Smeral, 2003, p 153) Background of the Study Statistically, people over 50 go on vacation more often and for a longer period They prefer consulting travel agencies and group travel Moreover, they are able to profit from discounts due to their flexibility and are the best target group of luxury tourism (Lieux, 1994, p 714) By looking at the following numbers, the increasing importance of 50 plus travellers can be seen In 2000, 126 million 50 plus travellers were already registered in the European Union (EU), which signifies that every third EU citizen is 50 years old or older In 2020, nearly 40% of the travellers will be over 50 According to forecasts, in the next two decades Austria will gain at least 2.5 to million new travellers over 50 (Smeral, 2003, p 154) A study in America showed for instance that people between 55 and 64 expend on average more than 7% of their earnings for travelling This percentage was the highest among all age groups (Fall, & Knutson, 2001, p 98) A similar result was found by a German study, namely that the generation 50 plus represents approximately 50 % of the total consumer spending in areas such as travelling, clothing or aliments Thus they have already now much more influence than advertisements would suggest In comparison to consumers under 50, the generation over 50 years old will be responsible for 58% of the consumer spending Only the consumption in the health and travel segments will augment approximately by 12%, respectively 6% until the year 2035 (Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend, 2010, pp 10-13) Although a shift towards the senior market can already be observed, marketing and product development departments of companies encounter a challenge when addressing the needs and wants of the older generation This target group disposing of more than 40 years of consumption experience and being highly active expects to be taken seriously also concerning their age-related constrictions (ibid., pp 1819) Furthermore, they tend to act similar to younger people and are consequently often not predictable, not consequent and like to have various options (Walder, 2008, p 98) Today the travel intensity of Swiss people over 65 is located at 82% Bearing in mind the population growth rate and assuming an annual 5% rise of the travel demand, until 2040 a triplication of this percentage can be predicted (ibid., p 100) Problem Definition Problem Definition As declared in previous chapters, in the future the older generation will gain further significance due to the Downaging effect Indeed tourism entities still fight for target groups with less purchasing power such as families or teenagers and miss the profit making business with mature travellers (Smeral, 2003, p 153) As elderly consumers tend to be conscious about the end of life and the preciousness of time, they carefully consider how they spend their time (Szmigin, & Carrigan, 2001, p 1094) Therefore especially in the developed countries the population aging leads to the need for suppliers to react to this demographic change and the increasingly important market of elderly people (Weijters, & Geuens, 2006, p 783) This new segment offers huge expansion possibilities, which would be very difficult to achieve in other established markets On these grounds an early interference in the meaning of First-Mover-Advantage or the role of innovation can be decisive (Pompe, 2012, p 31) However, even if this segment is highly lucrative, its actual establishment is not easy The older generation is quite heterogeneous, critical and demanding They focus more on quality and good customer service compared to younger people Finally they want personalized products, which are harmonizing with their generation, but are not labelled as old-fashioned (Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend, 2010, p 3) Especially in the tourism segment a lack of information about the effects of Downagers’ changing expectations for the present as well as for the future market can be observed Moreover, there is also a need for researching data concerning the travel behaviour and the preferences of Downagers 3.1 Aim of the Research The aim of the tourism industry is the implementation of the needs and desires into concrete senior focused tourism products During the tourism product development process notably qualitative data of this particular segment, for example the needs, motivators, demotivators, needs and constraints, need to be taken into consideration Through this data customer satisfaction can be increased and the Problem Definition company can contemporaneously achieve a value enhancement (Smeral, 2003, p 154) The objective of this paper is to define the most crucial aspects which influence Downagers during the decision making process of tourism products It will explain their motivators, desires and needs in terms of their travel behaviour Consequently, this paper aims to find out how the Downaging effect influences tourism products, in order to profit more from this phenomenon and upcoming market in the future 3.2 Research Questions In order to fulfil the aims of this paper, the results will give an answer to the following research questions: Which are the motivators and needs of Downagers in terms of their travel behaviour? In which ways these characteristics of Downagers affect present and future tourism products? Research Methodology Research Methodology In this section, the research method will be explained including the sampling strategy, its benefits and challenges and its justification Besides that, an overview of the data collection process and the data analysis will be provided For this paper a focus group has been chosen as the main method of investigation A focus group can be defined as particular kind of group whose participants have shared characteristics, which are connected to the issue (Krueger, 1994, p 6) 4.1 Sampling and Recruiting Strategy Similar to other qualitative research methods, a purposive sample strategy is chosen to select the participants This selection process is conducted based on the aims of the research (Morgan, 1998a, p 56) For a purposive sample it is fundamental to eliminate bias meaning selecting participants who match exactly with the project Another crucial aspect is the compatibility of the participants to ensure pleasant group dynamics (ibid., pp 58-59) For the purpose of this paper, the focus group participants will be selected referred to demographic characteristics and based on their experiences, beliefs and interests (ibid., p 65) In order to find out the motivators and needs of Downagers, different personalities will be contacted As common characteristics, the participants need to be aged over 50 years, dispose of adequate time and sufficient discretionary income for travelling and leisure activities and they need to be in sufficient physical and health conditions to experience tourism products Possible focus group participants have the following characteristics (Horx, 2007a): Person A: seeks for self-actualization, but is still family oriented; Person B: so-called Silver Surfer, interested into society, politics and technique, highly active, does not think about retirement; Person C: looks for relaxation and well-being; Person D: searches for a second beginning, adventurous, curious, active consumer; Person E: sees leisure and travelling as compensation for hard work; Research Methodology The recruitment process implies three steps: contacting potential participants, sending out confirmation letters and making follow-up calls the day before the focus group (Morgan, 1998a, pp 85-86) One of the most important sources for participants will be snowball sampling so as to profit from existing networks (ibid., p 89) 4.2 Strengths and Limitations of Focus Groups To begin with the strengths of focus groups, this qualitative research method offers people a natural setting, where they have the possibility to discuss and share different opinions The evolving group dynamics are essential and significant for this research method Additionally, focus groups are rather flexible, as the moderator can integrate unexpected topics Further benefits include the low cost factor, the rather low time consumption and the high informative value Compared to quantitative research techniques, focus groups avoid complex statistics and figures and are characterized by a high comprehensibility and credibility (Krueger, 1994, pp 34-35) Limitations of focus groups are the decreasing control of the moderator in comparison to expert interviews Besides, the data analysis is more difficult, as statements have to be evaluated within their certain context Moreover, it is crucial to include pauses, probes and to switch topics at the right time In addition, problems can arise in how to bring together different people at the same time at the same location (ibid., pp 36-37) 4.3 Justification for the Selection of the Research Method The focus group as method of investigation has been selected according to the numerous benefits stated earlier This technique is the ideal research method to gain the requested qualitative data, as the author is interested into an interactive discussion The focus group will give the possibility to directly ask selected Downagers to speak about their personal attitudes and desires and to share their opinions Finally, a focus group represents the accurate ambience to find answers to the research questions 10 Research Methodology 4.4 Data Collection After the development of the conceptual framework including the key concepts and research questions, as well as the focus group guideline, the actual research takes place The execution of the research consists of two elements, the data collection and the data analysis (Veal, 2011, p 79) During the focus group the moderator has to lead the discussion and also to ensure that all participants can express their opinion As data collection measurement, the focus group is usually recorded and supplementary remarks are noted (ibid., p 239) Thereafter, the recorded discussion will be transcribed (ibid., p 246) For qualitative research methods, it is not unusual that the data collection and the data analysis process interfere (ibid., p 252) A further important aspect is to assure the ethical correctness of focus groups This can be achieved by ensuring anonymity and confidentiality of the participants (Morgan, 1998b, p 88) Consequently, it is the task of the moderator to obtain informed consent concerning the tape recording 4.5 Data Analysis In order to start the data analysis it is essential to keep in mind the conceptual framework and the research questions (Veal, 2011, p 396) Moreover, concepts or ideas need to be coded with labels to allow a better overview Labels will be similar to the following categories: Education, Nostalgia, Escape, Spirituality, Socializing, Health and Recreation A very important element, which has to be taken in consideration for the analysis, is its verifiability This means that with the given data and information, the conclusion of other investigators has to be similar (Krueger, 1998, pp 128-129) During the analysis process, the raw data of the transcript is summarized briefly and illustrated with the most descriptive quotes of the participants and is then further interpreted (ibid, p 131) The process will be primarily a transcript-based analysis, but it will also consider additional notes and observations 11 Chapter Outline Chapter Outline The following chapter outline will provide an outlook of the composition and the content of Bachelor Paper II Title page Statutory declaration Abstract in English Abstract in German Table of contents Table of figures & illustrations List of abbreviations Introduction Literature Review 2.1 Demographic Change 2.2 Definition of Downaging 2.3 Definition of Tourism Product 2.4 Status Quo of the Tourism Industry 2.5 Motivation Theories Research Methodology 3.1 Sampling and Recruiting Strategy 3.2 Strengths and Limitations of Focus Groups 3.3 Justification for the Selection of the Research Method 3.4 Data Collection 3.5 Data Analysis 3.6 Ethical Issues Findings Discussion Conclusions and Recommendations List of References Bibliography Annex 12 Chapter Outline The first chapter will give some insights into the topic, state the problem definition, the objectives of the research and provide a chapter outline After the introduction, Chapter will emphasize and clarify the essential concepts concerning this topic First, the demographic change in general and the phenomenon Downaging will be treated Second, the term tourism product will be defined and a short overview of the current status in the tourism industry will follow Last, different motivational theories and models will be explained, as they will be an important element of the focus group and the data analysis Chapter deals with the research design so as to say the sampling strategy, the benefits and challenges of focus groups, the justification for this research method, the data analysis, the data collection and the ethical issues Afterwards, Chapter will include the data analysis including the most important statements and their interpretations As the focus group guideline has not been defined yet, the exact codes for categorizing the raw data may be changed Next, Chapter will discuss the impacts of the Downaging effect on tourism products based on the descriptive data of Chapter The decision factors for the focus group participants will be connected to present and future tourism products and this part will evaluate how product development could be optimized to profit from this upcoming segment After paraphrasing and interpreting the data, in Chapter conclusions will be drawn In this part, the most important ideas will be highlighted and the author will express her personal opinion Finally the limitations of the Bachelor Thesis will be explained Besides, recommendations will be given including the ways further researchers could take advantage of the results of this paper 13 Timetable of Bachelor Thesis II Timetable of Bachelor Thesis II The following table illustrates the individual tasks of Bachelor Paper II, which shall be finished at the respective planned date Nevertheless, the listed due dates cannot be assured and might be slightly amended during the research and writing process Table 1: Timetable of Bachelor Thesis II Task Deadline Application Expected Time Planned/Due Date - 17 January 2014 - 27 January 2014 weeks 19 December 2013 weeks January 2014 weeks January 2014 - 16 January 2014 weeks February 2014 Writing Findings weeks 27 February 2014 Writing Discussion weeks 13 March 2014 week 20 March 2014 Adapting Introduction days 23 March 2014 Writing Abstract days 27 March 2014 week April 2014 Bachelor Thesis II Actual Date Confirmation of Bachelor Thesis II Topic Contacting Participants Preparing Guideline for Focus Group Specifying Dates, Confirming Focus Group Conducting Focus Group Transcribing & Coding of Focus Group Writing Conclusions & Recommendations Controlling References & Formatting BA II 14 Timetable of Bachelor Thesis II Proof Reading & Finalizing BA II Second Proof Reading weeks 17 April 2014 week 24 April 2014 - 30 April 2014 - 02 May 2014 - 28 May 2014 Printing BA II & Focus Group Transcript Hand in BA II Upload of BA II & Abstract under “My Thesis Upload” Source: Author's Chart 15 List of References List of References Bundesministerium für Familie, Senioren, Frauen und Jugend (2007) Studie Wirtschaftsmotor Alter Downloaded on November 10th, 2013 from http://www.bmfsfj.de/RedaktionBMFSFJ/Broschuerenstelle/PdfAnlagen/wirtschaftsfaktor-alterkurzfassung,property=pdf,bereich=bmfsfj,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf Baltes, P B (1996) Über die Zukunft des Alterns: Hoffnung mit Trauerflor In M Baltes, & L Montada (Eds.) (1996), Produktives Leben im Alter (29-68) Frankfurt: Campus Verlag Cooper, C., & Hall, M (2008) Contemporary Tourism, an International Approach 1st ed., Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann Fall, L T., & Knutson, B J (2001) Personal Values and Media Usefulness of Mature Travellers Journal of Hospitality & Leisure Marketing, 3-4 (8), 97-112 Goeldner, C R., & Brent Ritchie, J R (2009) Tourism Principles, Practices, Philosophies 11th ed., New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Horx, M (2007a) Trendspot #55: Downaging Warum wir nicht älter, sondern eher jünger werden Accessed on October 18th, 2013 from http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/verlag/zukunftsdatenbank_detail.php?nr=1876 Horx, M (2007b) Die Macht der Megatrends Downloaded on November 5th, 2013 from https://www.entega.de/fileadmin/downloads/industriekunden/megatrends_horx.pdf Horx, M (2011) Das Megatrend-Prinzip Wie die Welt von morgen entsteht 1st ed., München: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt Kinsella, K., & Philipps, D R (2005) Global Aging-the challenge of success Population Bulletin, (60), 5-44 Kotler, P (2003) Marketing Insights from A to Z 80 Concepts Every Manager Needs To Know New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons Krueger, R A (1994) Focus Groups A Practical Guide for Applied Research 2nd ed., California: Sage Publications 16 List of References Lehr, U (2007) Population Ageing Berlin-Institut für Bevölkerung und Entwicklung Downloaded on October 20th, 2013 from http://www.berlininstitut.org/fileadmin/user_upload/handbuch_texte/pdf_Lehr_Population_Ageing.p df Lieux, E M (1994) Lodging preferences of the senior tourism market Annals of Tourism Research, (21), 712-728 Mayer, K U., Baltes, P B., Baltes, M M., Borchelt, M., Delius, J., Helmchen, H., Linden, M., Smith, J., Staudinger, U M., Steinhagen-Thiessen, E., & Wagner, M (1999) What Do We Know about Old Age and Aging? 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(2012) Boom-Branchen 50plus Wie Unternehmer den BestAger-Markt für sich nützen können 1st ed., Wiesbaden: Gabler Verlag Popcorn, F., & Marigold, L (1996) Clicking 16 Trends to Future fit your Life, your Work, and your Business 1st ed., New York: HarperCollins Publishers Popp, D (2007) Tourismus ist Zukunft Accessed on October 28th, 2013 from http://www.cipra.org/de/alpmedia/news-de/2666 Rosenmayr, L (2007) Schöpferisch Altern Eine Philosophie des Lebens 2nd ed., Wien: Lit Verlag Schiffman, L G., & Sherman, E (1991) Value orientations of new-age elderly: The coming of an ageless market Journal of Business Research, (22), 187-195 Smeral, E (2003) Die Zukunft des internationalen Tourismus Entwicklungsperspektiven für das 21 Jahrhundert Wien: Linde Verlag 17 ... the travellers will be over 50 According to forecasts, in the next two decades Austria will gain at least 2 .5 to million new travellers over 50 (Smeral, 2003, p 154 ) A study in America showed... qualitative research methods, a purposive sample strategy is chosen to select the participants This selection process is conducted based on the aims of the research (Morgan, 1998a, p 56 ) For a... (4 75- 520) 1st ed., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Max Planck Society (2013) Population and Policy Database Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Rostock Accessed on November 15th,