GREENHOUSE GASES REDUCTION EFFECT THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE EXPORT VERIFICATION ON MODAL SHIFT Assoc Prof Dr Tomoyo Toyota The University of Shimane, Japan 1 Introduction Infrastructure export is cited a[.]
GREENHOUSE GASES REDUCTION EFFECT THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE EXPORT: VERIFICATION ON MODAL SHIFT Assoc Prof Dr Tomoyo Toyota The University of Shimane, Japan Introduction Infrastructure export is cited as one of Japanese growth strategy Urbanization and economic growth are developed rapidly centering on developing countries, and the importance of the business strategy which made an overseas market the subject is rising Japan is the target which promotes infrastructure export to 30 trillion yen (about 300 billion US$) by 2020 Infrastructure export is also expected of the effect which contributes to global environment problem solving and disaster prevention as well as improvement of lifestyle in a partner country One of contribution to the environment field by the infrastructure export is reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) A generating electricity section is biggest greenhouse gas emission, and next is transport sector That the electric power and transportation demand provide the developing country which rises with expensive technological infrastructure can contribute to mitigation of global warming To mitigate climate change, it is necessary for all countries to be involved Currently, China is the world’s largest emitter of CO2, and without the cooperation of China and other developing countries, it will be impossible to solve the climate change problem, as the amount of GHGs emission from these countries, where population and economic growth are rising rapidly, is expected to double between 2010 and 2030 This study estimates reduction effects of GHGs emission through 14 rail projects (subway, monorail and diesel train project) in countries (India, Indonesia, Thailand, China and Philippine) All of the projects were funded by Yen loans(ODA) because I could obtain detailed information regarding both establishment and operation of the projects 144 Energy and GHGs emission in transportation sector The transportation sector is the second-largest GHGs emission sector after electricity, and it accounts for 24% of the whole sector (see Figure 1) The amount of GHGs emission in the transportation sector is increasing each year, and the GHGs emission from transportation more than doubled between 1971 and 2008 (IEA, 2017) World CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (total CO2 emissino is 32,294.2 Mt in 2015) Transport: of others 6% Transport: of road 18% Electricity and heat generation 42% Other sectors 10% Other energy industry own use 5% Manufacturing industries and construction 19% 㻌 Figure Global CO2 emission by sector in 2015 㻔㻿㼛㼡㼞㼏㼑㻦㻌㻵㻱㻭㻔㻞㻜㻝㻣㻕㻕㻌 㻌 The GHGs emissions from the transportation sector increases with the rise in the income level Figure shows the population size and GHGs emissions from the transportation sector in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries The population size of non-OECD countries is five times that of OECD countries, but the CO2 emission from the transportation sector is only 60% of that of OECD countries Per capita annual CO2 emission from the transportation sector is 2.8 t-CO2 in OECD and 0.4 t-CO2 in non-OECD countries If the amount of per capita emission of the transportation sector in non-OECD countries reaches the same level as that of OECD countries, then the amount of GHGs emission in the world will increase by about 40% 145 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 OECD countries non-OECD countries Population (million) CO2 emission from transportation sector (1,000 ton of CO2) Figure Amount of CO2 emission from transportation sector (in 2015) Source: 㻔㻿㼛㼡㼞㼏㼑㻦㻌㻵㻱㻭㻔㻞㻜㻝㻣㻕㻕 What, then, is the GHGs emission structure in the transportation sector? Figure also shows that travel on roads produces the largest emission in transportation sector.㻌Because the needs of transportation increase with an increase in income, the mitigation of emission from the transportation and road traffic sector is one of the most important problems that needs to be addressed Emission from transportation can be calculated as Emission = Carbon content (CO2/MJ) × Energy intensity (MJ/pkm) × Transportation demand (pkm) When reducing the amount of emission from road traffic, it is necessary to cut down the amount of emission of each factor Thus, reducing carbon content means switching to fuels with low carbon content, e.g., converting from fossil fuel to biofuel (Haroon, 2000) To lower energy intensity, it is effective to improve engine efficiency, make a modal shift from light-duty vehicles to a mass transportation system, and increase the load factor Further, as a way of reducing transportation demand, short roads and improvements can lower the distance that vehicles are driven (Source: IEA, 2009; OECD/ITF, 2000; David, 2007; Cefic and ECTA) The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that the four most important modes that will contribute to CO2 in the baseline scenario in 2050 are LDVs at 43%, trucks at 21%, aviation at 30%, and shipping at 8% Additionally, they predict that buses and rail lines will increase significantly, and that CO2 reduction via efficiency and alternative fuels in these modes will become increasingly 146 important This study examines how a modal shift from road to mass transportation through railroad has an impact on GHGs emissions The main objectives of railway projects conducted through the Japanese ODA are to enhance regional economic development or to reduce air pollution through constructing subways or railways, and not to reduce the amount of GHGs emissions Therefore, the GHGs reduction effect because of the modal shift is estimated as a co-benefit effect Research subject and methodology 3.1 Object project This study aims to estimate the GHGs emission reduction effect through transportation by railway project The GHGs emission reduction effect is calculated as the emission gap between the baseline and railways built through the projects This study estimates the GHGs emission reduction effects of 14 railway projects in these five countries: India, Indonesia, Thailand, China, and the Philippines as indicated in Table There are two main objectives of these projects: one is to promote regional economic development and improve the urban environment through the alleviation of traffic congestion and the reduction of pollution caused by motor vehicles, and the other is to contribute to the promotion of trade, both passenger and freight, and to the vitalization of regional economies Table Project Summary No 10 11 12 13 14 Country China China China China China China China China China India Indonesia Indonesia Philippine Thailand Project type Scale(km) Scale(Mpkm) Scale(Mtkm) Electric, P 9,216 Electric, F 154 151 Electric, P 194 739 Electric, P and F 42 50 450 Electric, P and F 57 252 1,559 Electric, P and F 139 6,267 Electric, F 88 246 Diesel, F 40 12,581 Diesel, F 191 247 Electric, P 35 2,494 Diesel, P and F 59 244 23 Diesel, P and F 51 367 -24 Electric, P 247 Electric, P 10 315 Train total 886 4,561 31,057 note)P=Passsenger, F=Freight, Mpkm=Million passenger-km, Mtkm=Million ton 147 Source: JICA Website 3.2 Methodology of GHGs reduction effect The GHGs emission reduction effect is calculated as the emission gap between the baseline and the transportation projects The amount of GHGs reduction effect refers to the appraisal technique of the CDM, which is approved by the United Nations The GHGs reduction effect in the transportation sector refers to the ACM0016: “Mass Rapid Transit Projects” and AM0090: “Modal shift in transportation of cargo from road transportation to water or rail transportation,” or JICA Climate-FIT (Mitigation) (JICA Climate Finance Impact Tool/Mitigation) Draft Ver 1.0, June 2011) However, because detailed data and monitoring information for every project are necessary to apply the evaluation methodology of the CDM, it is difficult to estimate the reduction effect of all projects using the methodology of the CDM For simplification, while referring to the CDM methodology, the reduction effect is estimated with the following procedures The project intends to reduce GHGs emissions by realizing a “modal shift” from existing passenger transport systems, i.e., conventional buses, passenger cars, taxis, and bikes, to passenger railway systems, such as a new railway, a double-track railway, or a quadruple-track railway In addition, the “electrification” of passenger railway systems will reduce GHGs emission The GHGs emission reduction amount is calculated as the difference between the project emission (PE) and the baseline emission (BE) amounts: ERi,y = BEi,y – PEi,y, (1) where ERi,y is GHGs emission reduction due to i project activity in year y (t-CO2/y), BEi,y is baseline emissions: GHGs emissions with existing transport systems in year y (t-CO2/y), PEi,y is project emissions: GHGs emissions after the success of modal shift to the passenger/freight railway from the existing transport systems in year y (t-CO2/y) Project emission by the CDM methodology is the sum of the 1) emission based on the fuel and/or electricity consumed by the project railway (direct project 148 emission) plus 2) emission caused by project passengers from their trip origin to the entry station of the project, and from the exit station of the project to their destination (indirect project emission) However, as we cannot collect the indirect project emission by the available data, project emission means only direct project emission in this study In contrast, the baseline emission (for passenger transportation) by the CDM methodology is defined as ܧܤǤ௬ ൌ ǡ ೄುಶೃ σ൫ܧܤǡǡ௬ ൈ ܺܧܨǡǡ௬ ൯, (2) where BEy is baseline emission in year y (t-CO2), BEp,y is baseline emission per surveyed passenger p surveyed in year y (each surveyed passenger has a different expansion factor), Py is the total number of passengers in year y, PSPER is number of passengers in the time period of the survey (1 week), p is the surveyed passenger (each individual), y is year of the crediting period, and i is each project i Surveys are required to estimate the baseline and project emissions, but those surveys were not conducted Hence, for example, we created the basic unit to collect macro-level data by the following estimation methods: 1) Estimation process and data of the reduction effect (Case of passenger travel) From formula (1), the GHGs reduction effect by a passenger transport railway project is calculated by detecting the amount of project emissions from the amount of the baseline emissions Also, the GHGs reduction effect by a passenger transport railway project㻌deducts and calculates the amount of project emissions from the amount of the baseline emissions Figures and show the estimation flow of the baseline and project emissions 149 (5) Power consumption for passenger transportation (GWh) Electric train (1) Amount of passenger transportation (pkm) (4) Unit conversion: caloric unit to electric unit (1 GWh = 3.6 MJ) (3) calorific value for passenger transportation (MJ) (2) Average rail energy intensity for passenger (MJ/pkm) (8) Emission factor: fuel from tank to wheel (t-CO2/MJ) (7) CO2 emission (t-CO2) (6) Emission factor: power generation (t-CO2/GWh) (9) CO2 emission (t-CO2) Non-electric train Data source (1) JICA website (2) IEA/SPM (2004) (6) IEA(2011a, 2011b, 2011c) (8) IPCC (1996) Figure Estimation flow of the project emission (Passenger transportation) For mid- and longdistance transportation (12) Calorific value for passenger transportation (MJ) (1) Amount of passenger transportation (pkm) (11) Average bus energy intensity (MJ/pkm) (13) CO2 emission (t-CO2) (8) Emission factor: fuel from tank to wheel (t-CO2/MJ) For urban transportation (1) Amount of passenger transportation (pkm) (16) CO2 emission (t-CO2) (14) Baseline of urban transportation structure (%) (15) Energy intensity by vehicle type (MJ/pkm) (8) Emission factor: fuel from tank to wheel (t-CO2/MJ) Data source (11) IEA/SPM (2004) (14) JICA website (15) IEA/SPM(2004), IPCC (1996) Figure Estimation flow of the baseline emission (Passenger transportation) The estimation process and the data change with an electric train or a non-electric train (diesel) are indicated in Figure Moreover, the estimation process changes with urban or long-distance railways The data used for estimation is displayed below 150 ... GHGs emission reduction effect through transportation by railway project The GHGs emission reduction effect is calculated as the emission gap between the baseline and railways built through the... of these projects: one is to promote regional economic development and improve the urban environment through the alleviation of traffic congestion and the reduction of pollution caused by motor... F=Freight, Mpkm=Million passenger-km, Mtkm=Million ton 147 Source: JICA Website 3.2 Methodology of GHGs reduction effect The GHGs emission reduction effect is calculated as the emission gap between