NorthWatch-Workshop4-Breck_Bowden

The Arctic LTER Project Ecohydrological perspective of climate change aspects of northern catchments Breck Bowden University of Vermont North-Watch Workshop Hubbard Brook, USA 14-17 April 2011 Workshop Objectives • What we need to improve our ability to simulate hydrology, geochemistry (e.g DOC) and ecology? (reducing limitations) • How can observations be integrated with models to improve predictions about responses of water resources to climate variations? (predicting change) • How can we better consider (potential) nonlinearities, thresholds and the likely response of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems? (anticipating surprise) • How can past (climate) variability be used to improve our ability to make predictions of future changes? (learning from the past) Key Points • What we know about streams in arctic Alaska that helps understand the future of the northern environment? – – – – – – A disturbance template Effects of enrichment Hyporheic influences Changing seasonality Permafrost vulnerability Wildfires on the tundra Some short stores • How these projects relate to the workshop objectives? – – – – Reducing limitations: understanding states and processes Predicting change: linking states and processes in systems Anticipating surprise: value of long-term experiments & monitoring Learning from the past: non-stationarity as the norm In reality, these are all related It will be warmer and wetter in the future Project Changes in Temperature Project Changes in Precipitation Predicted changes from four models relative to 1981-2000 for 60o to 90o N (ACIA 2004) -4.5 Temperatures at 20 m depth (°C) -5.0 -5.5 -6.0 Permafrost has been warming Time series WD DH FB HV GL -6.5 -7.0 -7.5 …at 20 m • • • • • -8.0 -8.5 -9.0 -9.5 -10.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 WD: West Dock DH: Deadhorse FB: Franklin Bluff HV: Happy Valley GL: Galbraith Lake 2005 Osterkamp 2002 Where we‟ve worked Toolik Field Station GIS Map Archive Characteristics of Arctic Streams • Diverse morphology: – mountain, spring, tundra, beaded • Oligotrophic and unproductive • Low diversity and abundance • But still, complex interactions …and the point is… Coastal Plain Tundra • highly sinuous • low gradient • steep banks/calving • ice wedge polygons • thaw lakes Colville River From Short and Blair, Chapter 4, Geomorphology from Space http://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/DAAC_DOCS/geomorphology/GEO_HOME_PAGE.html Mountain • • • • Atigun River tributary fed by mountain run-off variable discharge and temperature unstable substrate and scoured channels sparse biota Glacial • fed by glacial run-off • high suspended sediment • high daily variation in discharge • unstable substrate and scoured channels • sparse biota Top: Gates glacier Bottom: Ribdon tributary Wildfires in Alaska by Decade Wendler et al (2010) Number of fires detected per year Temporal Trend of Fires on the North Slope Year Miller (2010) Anaktuvuk River Fire Severe Area burned : 1039 km2 C released : ~2.09 Tg Moderate Unburned Courtesy G Shaver 120 0.24 80 2008 0.2 40 NEE 0.16 2008 Albedo -40 0.12 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 0.08 -80 Unburned Moderate Severe -120 -160 0.04 140 Day of year 160 180 200 220 240 260 Day of year 120 0.24 80 2009 0.2 2009 40 NEE 0.16 Albedo -40 Unburned -80 Unburned 0.12 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 Moderate 0.08 Moderate Severe -120 Severe 0.04 -160 140 Day of year 160 180 200 220 240 260 Day of year 120 0.24 80 2010 0.2 2010 40 NEE 0.16 Albedo -40 0.12 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 Unburned -80 Moderate Severe -120 Unburned Moderate 0.08 Severe 0.04 -160 140 Day of year Data: Courtesy of A Rocha 160 180 200 Day of year 220 240 260 Impacts of Burn Severity on NEE and Albedo over Time Temporal Trends in DOC Impacts of a Large and Intense Tundra Wildfire on the Hydrological Export of Carbon, Nitrogen and Phosphorus Summary of Burn Impacts • The burn has not greatly changed inorganic nutrient concentrations (but loadings?) • The burn has significantly altered DOC, TDN, and TDP concentrations (and loadings?) • The burn has had mixed influences on aquatic foodwebs (Allen et al.) • A combination of burn and thermokarst effects may have substantial influences on headwater hydrodynamics and nutrient loading Back Factors Affecting Permafrost Sensitivity Climate Geology Topography Wind Air Temperature Soil Texture Fire Drainage Precipitation Groundwater Snow Plant Canopy Surface Water Net Radiation Moss-Litter Energy Budget Soil Thermal Properties Soil Temperature Lateral Soil Heat Flux Vertical Soil Heat Flux Mineral Texture Active-Layer Permafrost Degradation Permeability Permafrost Aggradation Interactions among… Organic Matter Soil Moisture Water Temperature Factors affecting permafrost sensitivity Ground Ice • • • • • • Climate Hydrology Topography Plant Communities Soil Properties Etc Thaw Settlement and/or Slope Failure Microtopography T Jorgenson, unpublished How these projects relate to the workshop objectives? • Reducing limitations: understanding states and processes – Influences of drivers: temperature, precipitation, nutrients – Rates of processes: production, uptake, recycling – Interactions among components: foodwebs, budgets • Predicting change: linking states and processes in systems – Conceptual frameworks – Dynamics models • Anticipating surprise: observing change – The value of long-term experiments and monitoring • Learning from the past: non-stationarity as the new norm – Chronosequences, oscillations, and paleo-records Thanks! The Arctic LTER Streams Team • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Bruce Peterson, Ecosystems Center (lead-PI) Breck Bowden, University of Vermont (co-PI) Linda Deegan, Ecosystems Center (co-PI) Alex Huryn, University of Alabama (co-PI) Jon Benstead, Ecosystems Center (Post-Doctoral Fellow) Karen Buzby, Ecosystems Center (Post-Doctoral Fellow) Elissa Schuett, Ecosystems Center (Staff Technician) Adrian Green, Ecosystems Center (Staff Technician) Heidi Wilcox, Ecosystems Center (Staff Technician) Carl Cappelletti, University of Vermont (Graduate student) Morgan Johnson, University of Vermont (Graduate student) Stephanie Parker, University of Alabama (Graduate student) Heidi Rantala, University of Alabama (Graduate student) Angela Allen, Brown University (Graduate student) Numerous REU students, fisherpersons, and colleagues The Arctic Hyporheic Group • Breck Bowden (co-PI) University of Vermont • Mike Gooseff (co-PI) Pennsylvania State University • Jim McNamara (co-PI) Boise State University • John Bradford (co-PI) Boise State University • Morgan Johnson (Graduate Student) University of Vermont • Jay Zarnetske (Graduate Student) Utah State University • Troy Brosten (Graduate Student) Boise State University • Rob Payn (Graduate Student) Colorado School of Mines The Noatak Research Team • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Breck Bowden, University of Vermont (co-PI) Mike Gooseff, Pennsylvania State University (co-PI) Jay Jones, University of Alaska – Fairbanks (co-PI) Bruce Peterson, The Ecosystems Center, MBL (co-PI) Chris Luecke, Utah State University (co-PI) Andrew Balser, University of Alaska – Fairbanks (co-PI) Diane Sanzone National Park Service (Collaborator) Greta Burkart, National Park Service (Collaborator) Jim Lawler, National Park Service (Collaborator) Michael Flinn, University of Vermont (Post-Docotoral) Julia Larouche, University of Vermont (Graduate Student) Angela Alan, The Ecosystems Center, MBL (Graduate Student) Aurora Bouchier, Colorado School of Mines (Graduate Student) Amanda Reinhart, University of Alaska – Fairbanks (Graduate Student) The Changing Seasonality in Arctic Stream Networks Research Group • Breck Bowden (co-PI) University of Vermont (co-PI) • Mike Gooseff (co-PI) Pennsylvania State University (co-PI) • Wil Wollheim (co-PI) University of New Hampshire • Malcolm Herstand (Graduate Student) University of Vermont • Adam Wlostoski (Graduate Student) Pennsylvania State University • Claire Treat (Graduate Student) University of New Hampshire • Brian McGlynn (Collaborator) Montana State University • Tim Covino (Collaborator) Montana State University The ARCSS/Thermokarst Team