Abolishing the Schengen Agreement potential effects on intra-EU trade in goods

Abolishing the Schengen Agreement: Potential Effects on Intra-EU Trade in Goods - Evidence from the Transport Sector in the Austrian-German Border Region MASTER THESIS in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS in EUROPEAN UNION STUDIES at the Salzburg Center of European Union Studies (SCEUS) of the University of Salzburg by: Maximilian Kunisch 01614025 Supervisor: Univ Prof Dr Christoph Moser Salzburg, August 2018 DECLARATION OF AUTHORSHIP I hereby declare that the Master thesis submitted is my own and unaided work All sources used are acknowledged as references All parts quoted directly or indirectly from other sources have been indicated accordingly This paper was not previously presented to another examination board 15 08 2018 Maximilian Kunisch TABLE OF CONTENT Abstract i List of Abbreviations ii Introduction 1.1 Background and Relevance 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Outline, Research Questions and Methodology I EU Single Market, Borders and Trade The European Single Market 2.1 Historical Developments 2.2 Legal Framework of the European Single Market 2.3 Single Market: Theory and Practice 10 The Schengen Agreement as part of the SMP 15 3.1 Historical Developments 15 3.2 The Schengen Agreement: A legal perspective 16 3.3 Schengen effects on intra-EU trade 18 3.4 Current Challenges of Schengen: The 2015 Refugee Crisis 23 II Abolishing Schengen: Potential Effects on intra-EU trade 26 Findings of current studies on non Schengen 26 Evidence from the Transport Sector in the Austrian-German border region 29 5.1 Methodology 29 5.2 Data 32 5.3 Results 33 Discussion 33 Conclusion 38 References 43 Annex I: Questionnaire (German version) 50 Annex II: Questionnaire (English version) 54 i ABSTRACT Due to Schengen I and Schengen II, internal frontiers and border checks within the European Union had been abolished by 1995 However, the 2015 refugee crisis has urged several EU member countries to reintroduce controls at their borders A famous example of such border controls is the ‘Walserberg’, a border crossing connecting Austria and Germany The paper on hand exploits the case of these temporary controls at the Austrian-German border to examine the impacts of a potential permanent suspension of the Schengen Area on intra-EU trade in goods, with a special focus on non-Schengen effects on the transport sector in the Austrian-German border region After comparing the effects of the single market and the Schengen Agreement on trade within the European Union, it can be seen that Schengen does not provide any remarkable additional benefits to the single markets’ positive effects on intraEU trade Even though, the carried out quantitative case study research does not allow to present any empirical results due to a lack of participation, reviewing recently published relevant literature allows supporting the hypothesis that Austrian transport companies are facing higher operational costs for their intra-EU activities due to the reinstalled border controls between Austria and Germany The thesis shows that the Schengen Agreement neither provides additional benefits to trade within the European Union, nor would an abolition of the Schengen provisions lead to striking negative effects on intra-EU trade in goods However, the Schengen Agreements’ political value has to be emphasized and needs to be considered when discussing its potential permanent suspension Keywords: Schengen Agreement, Cecchini Report, single market, border controls, Gravity Model, refugee crisis, transport sector, European Union ii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AVTE = Ad Valorem Tax Equivalent CU = Customs Union EC = European Community EEC = European Economic Community ECJ = European Court of Justice EMU = Economic and Monetary Union EOS Economies of Scale = EPRS = European Parliamentary Research Service EU = European Union FDI = Foreign Direct Investment FTA = Free Trade Area GDP = Gross Domestic Product IGC = Intergovernmental Conference SEA = Single European Act SMP = Single Market Programme TEU Treaty on European Union = TFEU = Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union QMV = Qualified Majority Voting VAT = Value Added Tax WKÖ = Wirtschaftskammer Österreich (Economic Chamber of Austria) 1 INTRODUCTION The thesis on hand focuses on potential effects of abolishing the Schengen Agreement on intra-EU trade in goods with a special focus on impacts on the Austrian transport sector Divided into a theoretical and empirical part, the thesis uses recent empirical literature on non-Schengen scenarios as well as gathered empirical data to answer the posted research questions, providing considerable results for the debate on a permanent suspension of the Schengen Agreement The following introductory chapter explains the background of the topic, shows why the issue is relevant and provides an overview of the thesis’ structure as well as the used methodology 1.1 Background and Relevance Starting in the early 1950s, cooperation among the European countries finally resulted in what we today call the European Union However, the forgoing integration process, bringing the national states together, took decades Following the European Economic Community, founded by the Rome treaty in 1958, the European customs union went into force ten years later Until the late 1970s, however, only little further progress towards European unity had been made Therefore, pushed by the EC Commission through its 1985 white paper on ‘completing the internal market’2, several steps towards closer cooperation had been taken, resulting in the creation of the European Union through the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 Further, by 1995 it could be managed by the so called ‘Schengen I’ and ‘Schengen II’ agreements, to abolish any internal frontiers within the European Union and hence, all controls at borders within the EU3 For two decades, European citizens could travel through the territory of the European countries without being controlled at any border In 2015, however, the so called ‘refugee crisis’ reached peak with some 1.3 million refugees entering the European Union4 Soon, several member countries felt themselves urged to react individually, suspending the Schengen Agreements’ provisions and reinstalling temporary controls at internal borders While the Schengen Borders Code allows doing so in exceptional circumstances, the European Commission further approved the renewal of the temporarily introduced border controls several times Hence, today six countries (France, see Egan, 2010, p 254ff.; see Weiler, 1991, p 2456; Fligstein & Mara-Drita, 1996, p 10; Fligstein & Brantley, 1995, p 120; & Moravcsik, 1991, p 33 European Commission, 1985 see Phinnemore, 2010, p 19; Fligstein & Mara-Drita, 1996, p 13; & Guild et al., 2015, p see European Parliament, 2018 see Guild et al., 2015, p 5-8; Hummer, 2016, p 12; & Wüger, 20189; p 198 European Parliament & Council, 2016 Austria, Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) still protect their borders to other EU member states These controls will last at least until November 2018 but may then be renewed again.7 Besides the expected national positive effects regarding migration inflows and national security, negative aspects of the re-established border controls soon became visible In particular, the road haulage sector had to deal with hours of additional waiting times putting just-in-time transport and supply-chains under pressure In September 2015, the Wirtschaftskammer Österreich estimated additional costs for the Austrian transport sector of some € 2.4 million every day8 But also commuters and travellers were negatively affected While three years later, waiting times at intra European borders still cause delays and additional costs, a debate had been opened whether a permanent suspension of the Schengen Agreements’ liberalizing provisions would be beneficial for the member states in order to control migration inflows and maintain their national security.9 However, both the European Parliament as well as the European Commission published studies and communications warning to so, already in early 201610 Based on empirical research carried out by the Bertelsmann Stiftung (2016) 11 and Assiloux & Le Hir (2016) 12 the corporate communication was that ‘Back to Schengen’ should be the solution strived for 1.2 Objectives While, debates on suspending Schengen continue, the thesis on hand asks what potential impacts an abolition of the Schengen Agreement would have on intra-EU trade in goods In particular, it shall be examined based on an assessment of recent literature whether and to what extent trade in goods within the European Union would be harmed due to reintroduced border controls Since the transport sector is the branch being affected most by border controls13, the impacts of reintroduced border checks on Austrian transport companies will also be studied by analyzing empirical data gathered through a survey that had been sent out in cooperation with the Wirtschaftskammer Österreich to a total of 1.500 Austrian forwarders and carriers The findings will then be put into consideration for assessing non-Schengen effects on intra-EU trade in goods see European Commission, 2018c see DVZ, 2015 see Wernicke, 2016; Meiler, 2016; McGuiness, 2018; Diamanti, 2016; Chazan, 2015; & La Repubblica, 2018 10 see EPRS, 2016a; EPRS, 2016b; & European Commission, 2016 11 Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2018 12 Aussiloux & Le Hir, 2016 13 e.g see EPRS, 2016c; EPRS, 2016d This allows contributing to the yet rather small existing literature on effects of suspending Schengen by adding new insights to recent empirical findings Yet, the empirical research carried out mostly focuses on non-Schengen effects at a EU- or member states level rather than scrutinizing impacts on individual economical sectors It will be shown, however, that instead of the Union or member states, in particular, specific branches suffer from border controls While this finding can actually be used as argument for both supporting as well as opposing a permanent suspension of Schengen, it is a noteworthy result that should be considered in the ongoing debates on the future of the Schengen Agreement 1.3 Outline, Research Questions & Methodology In the further course, the thesis on hand will be structured as follows: Since Schengen can be seen as part of the single market programme, the first chapter introduces the European single market Based on fundamental theories of European integration and economic cooperation it will be shown how and why the single market did emerge in the first place After presenting also its legal framework, the thesis continues with a literature based examination of the single markets’ effects on trade within the European Union The second chapter concentrates on the Schengen Agreement Similar to the first part on the single market, the history of Schengen gets presented, touching also upon its legal context within primary and secondary EU law Based on empirical research, the impact of the Schengen Agreement’s liberalizing provisions on intra-EU trade will be shown Further, the current challenges the Agreement is facing will be elaborated, also presenting the reactions of individual member countries to the refugee crisis As has been mentioned above, abolishing the Schengen Agreement is associated with additional costs and thus, may lead to negative effects on intra-EU trade However, discussions on suspending Schengen based on political reasons regarding migrant inflows or national security imply that, the Schengen Agreement is less valuable from an economic perspective and may be outweighed by political concerns Therefore, the first research question asks Q1: ‘Is the Schengen Agreement as part of the European Single Market legit from an economic perspective regarding its additional benefits to intra-EU trade in goods?’ While the thesis on hand does not touch upon the Schengen Agreements’ political perspective, it nevertheless points out that the outcomes of a mere economic assessment of Schengen are not sufficient in order to base debates on the future of Schengen upon As a first step, the results of the individual examinations on effects on intra-EU trade carried out in the first and second chapter of the thesis on hand will be compared Probing, the first hypothesis which states that H1: ‘The Schengen Agreements’ liberalizing effect on border controls within the European Union does not provide any remarkable additional benefits to the EU single markets’ positive effects on intra-EU trade in goods’ allows then answering the first research question The fourth and fifth part of the thesis on hand concentrates on potential effects of abolishing the Schengen Agreement Presenting varying results of recent empirical literature on nonSchengen scenarios, the fourth chapter examines what effects a permanent suspension of the Schengen provisions would have on intra-EU trade The following fifth chapter contains the empirical part of the thesis Exploiting the current real-world situation of border controls at the Austrian-German border, the paper uses a quantitative case study research design to examine the impacts of these controls on Austrian transport companies The data used for analysis was to be collected by a questionnaire containing 13 questions that had been sent out in cooperation with the Wirtschaftskammer Österreich to a total of 1.500 Austrian transport companies Distinguishing between the ‘Salzburg Group’ as primary research object and a control group, analyzing the data allows probing the second hypothesis which states that H2: ‘Austrian transport companies are facing higher operational costs for their intraEU activities due to the reinstalled border controls between Austria and Germany’ However, the studied data allows only identifying a correlation but not establishing a rule of causality In the sixth chapter, testing the hypothesis enables, in conjunction with the results of the first research question, to answer the second research question, asking Q2: ‘What potential impacts could an abolition of the Schengen Agreement have on trade in goods amongst members of the European Union considering effects on the Austrian transport sector?’ Chapter seven concludes I EU SINGLE MARKET, BORDERS AND TRADE THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET 2.1 Historical Developments Already from the beginning of cooperation among the European countries after World War II, the desire for a single market had been at the core of European integration Signed in 1957, the Treaty of Rome did not only found the European Economic Community (EEC) but also established the four freedoms (of persons, goods, services and capital) aiming at dismantling barriers to trade As further steps towards a common market, the elimination of customs duties and quantitative restrictions in 1958 had been followed by a common external tariff, ten years later.14 Among the literature dealing with European integration, there are different theories on how and why the European single market did emerge in the first place; but also concerning how, by the mid 1980’s, the existing common market had been extended From a neofunctionalist perspective, initiatives on completing the internal market came from the Commission in collaboration with transnational groups rather than from national governments of the European Community (EC) 15 The concept of ‘functional spillover’ provides an explanation of the development of the single market as a logical step further, stemming from common rules agreed upon by the member states before16 From an intergovernmental institutionalist perspective, however, national governments were the main initiators Following this state-centric approach17, the single market emerged from interstate bargains based on national preferences Among several alternatives on closer European cooperation, the demand for liberalizing the internal market had been found to be a common denominator throughout the EC 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Salzburg Tirol Vorarlberg Wien Kärnten Steiermark Oberösterreich Niederösterreich Burgenland Wie ist Ihr Unternehmen einzuordnen? Spedition Frächter/Fuhrunternehmen Spedition & Fuhrunternehmen Wie viele Mitarbeiter beschäftigt Ihr Unternehmen? bis 10 Mitarbeiter 11 bis 20 Mitarbeiter 21 bis 50 Mitarbeiter 51 bis 100 Mitarbeiter 101 bis 200 Mitarbeiter mehr als 200 Mitarbeiter Wie viele Fahrzeuge besitzt Ihr Unternehmen? kein eigener Fuhrpark bis 10 Fahrzeuge 11 bis 20 Fahrzeuge 53 21 bis 50 Fahrzeuge 51 bis 100 Fahrzeuge über 100 Fahrzeuge Welchen Verkehrsträger nutzen Sie überwiegend? Straße Schiene Wasser Luft Wo ist Ihr Unternehmen schwerpunktmäßig tätig? Regional (Stadt, Bezirk) National (Österreich) Westeuropa Süd-/ Mitteleuropa Osteuropa Europa komplett International (außerhalb Europas) Überqueren Ihre Straßentransporte mit Start in Österreich die deutsche Grenze (von Österreich nach Deutschland)? Ja Nein Wenn ja, wie viel Prozent Ihrer Straßentransporte mit Start in Österreich passieren die deutsche Grenze (von Österreich nach Deutschland)? Welchen Grenzübergang passieren Ihre Straßentransporte mit Start in Österreich schwerpunktmäßig? Grenzübergang Suben Grenzübergang Walserberg Grenzübergang Kiefersfelden 54 10 Haben Sie vor 2015 einen anderen Grenzübergang schwerpunktmäßig genutzt? Ja Nein 11 Wenn ja, welchen Grenzübergang haben Sie vor 2015 schwerpunktmäßig genutzt? 12 Bitte beurteilen Sie folgende Aussagen in Bezug auf Straßentransporte hinsichtlich ihrer Entwicklung seit Anfang 2015 (aus Sicht Ihres Unternehmens) Die durchschnittlichen Transportkosten sind außerordentlich gestiegen Der Planungsaufwand für die Festlegung der Transportrouten hat zugenommen Die Zahl von Transporten, die die vereinbarte Lieferfrist nicht einhalten können, ist gestiegen Aufträge für Straßentransporte innerhalb Europas werden nicht mehr angenommen Die Gesamtkosten des Unternehmens haben sich im Allgemeinen nicht verändert Das Verwaltungspersonal verzeichnete starken Zuwachs Das Fahrpersonal verzeichnete starken Zuwachs (wenn kein eigener Fuhrpark vorhanden, keine Beantwortung nötig) Kosten für Haftungszahlungen auf Grund verspäteter Lieferungen sind gestiegen Die Nachfrage an Straßentransporten innerhalb Europas hat abgenommen Im Allgemeinen sind die Gesamtkosten im Unternehmen stark gestiegen Fahrtzeiten bzw die Dauer von Transporten lassen sich schwerer und ungenauer kalkulieren Straßentransporte innerhalb Europas verlieren hinsichtlich Rentabilität zunehmend an Attraktivität stimme stimme stimme stimme stimme stimme voll zu zu eher zu eher nicht überhaupt nicht zu zu nicht zu 55 13 Im Jahr 2015 wurden an der Österreichisch-Deutschen Grenze vorübergehende Grenzkontrollen errichtet Wie wirken sich diese Grenzkontrollen im Allgemeinen auf Ihr Unternehmen aus? positiv eher positiv gar nicht eher negativ negativ 56 ANNEX II: QUESTIONNAIRE - ENGLISH TRANSLATION Where is your company’s headquarter located? Salzburg Tyrol Vorarlberg Vienna Carinthia Styria Upper Austria Lower Austria Burgenland How can your company be categorized? Forwarder Carrier Forwarder & Carrier How many employees does your company employ? up to 10 employees 11 to 20 employees 21 to 50 employees 51 to 100 employees 101 to 200 employees more than 200 employees How many vehicles does your company own? none up to 10 vehicles 11 to 20 vehicles 21 to 50 vehicles 57 51 to 100 vehicles more than 100 vehicles Which transport mode is your company using predominantly? Street Railway Water Air Where is your company operating predominantly? Regional (City, District) National (Austria) Western Europe South-/Middle Europe Eastern Europe Europe in general International (outside Europe) Do your street transports starting in Austria cross the German border (from Austria to Germany)? Yes No If so, how much percent of your street transports starting in Austria cross the German border (from Austria to Germany)? Which border crossing your street transports starting in Austria pass predominantly? Border crossing Suben Border crossing Walserberg Border crossing Kiefersfelden 10 Did you use a different border crossing predominantly before 2015? Yes 58 No 11 If so, which border crossing did you use predominantly before 2015? 12 Please assess the following statements concerning street transports regarding its development since early 2015 (from your company’s point of view) I totally I I tend to I tend to I I totally agree agree agree disagree disagree disagree Average transport costs rose exceptionally Efforts for planning transport routes increased The number of transports that cannot meet an agreed deadline increased Orders for street transports within Europe are no longer accepted Generally speaking, the company’s operational costs did not change The number of administrative staff increased exceptionally The number of driving staff increased exceptionally (if no driving staff employed, no answer necessary) Costs for fees due to delays increased The demand for street transports among Europe declined Generally speaking, operational costs rose exceptionally Driving times and transport durations can be calculated less precise Street transports among Europe are loosing their attractiveness with regard to their profitability 13 In 2015, controls at the Austrian-German border had been temporarily reintroduced Generally speaking, how these border controls affect your company? positive rather positive not at all rather negative negative ... of the Schengen Area on intra-EU trade in goods, with a special focus on non -Schengen effects on the transport sector in the Austrian-German border region After comparing the effects of the single... debates on the future of Schengen upon As a first step, the results of the individual examinations on effects on intra-EU trade carried out in the first and second chapter of the thesis on hand... nonSchengen, amongst others for the Austrian transport sector Concerning the second research question on potential effects of a permanent suspension of the Schengen Agreement on intra-EU trade in goods,