Tourism Theory, Concepts and Models Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Chapter 8: Lifecycle Models Tourism Concepts, Theories and Models © Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux All rights reserved 2021 Learning Objectives • Describe the biological basis of destination lifecycle models • Evaluate the validity of Butler’s and Plog’s lifecycle models • Analyse the strengths and limitations of each model • • Compare and contrast the two models and describe how they integrate closely Explain the role of carrying capacity Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Biological origins of lifecycle models • complementary models • Lifecycle that all higher organisms progress through • • • But it is overly simplistic Consider studies of populations of species • • • Individual biological specimens live predictable patterns of birth, growth, maturity, decline and death Collective shape of the lifecycle curve is influenced by a range of biological factors, including food supply, competitors and the carrying capacity of the environment where the entity lives Relates well to the theory of the diffusion of products, innovation and the overarching lifecycle collections like entities evolve through Concepts and Evolutionary modelTourism of theTheories, lifecycle Butler’s (1980) model • • “The Concept of a Tourist Area Cycle of Evolution” Evolution implies an open ended, infinite process where change is part of the normal order of events • Relates to how entire systems collectively interact to influence change • The opening paragraph of his paper states “There can be little doubt that tourist areas are dynamic, that they evolve and change over time This evolution is brought about by a variety of factors including changes in the preferences and needs of visitors, the gradual deterioration and possible replacement of physical plant and facilities, and the change (or even disappearance) of the original natural and cultural attractions which were responsible for the initial popularity of the area In some cases, while these attractions remain, they may be utilized for different purposes or come to be regarded as less significant in comparison withTheories, imported attractions.” 1980:5) Tourism Concepts and Models(Butler by McKercher and Core assumptions • • • • Adopts a supply side perspective (mostly) Supply of products and services changes, usually in response to changing consumer demand, but occasionally in a proactive manner to lead demand change Demand changes as destinations evolve, with the type of tourist becoming increasingly ‘softer’ as destinations mature Limits of growth are determined by the destination’s carrying capacity and once it is reached or exceeded, the destination is at risk of entering decline At risk, but not pre-determined to so! Tourism Theories, Concepts and Source: Butler 1980 Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Stage Exploration Involvement Development Consolidation Stagnation Post-stagnation Characteristic Few explorers or drifters visiting sites with no public facilities Visitors attracted to the destination by its natural physical feature Specific visitor type of a select nature Limited interaction between local residents and the tourism industry Increased advertising induces a definable pattern of seasonal variation Definite market are beginning to emerge Development of additional tourist facilities and increased promotion Greater control of the tourist trade by outsiders Number of tourists at peak periods far outweighs the size of the resident population, inducing rising antagonism Tourism has become a major part of the local economy, Growth rates have begun to level off A well-delineated business district has taken shape Local efforts are made to extend the tourist season Peak numbers of tourists and capacity levels are reached The destination is well-established, but is no longer in fashion Five possibilities from rejuvenation to stability to decline Tourism Concepts, Theories and Models © Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux All rights reserved 2021 Tourism Theories, Concepts and Carrying capacity • • • Once carrying capacity exceeded, the destination is at risk The UN World Tourism Organization (2018:3) defines tourist carrying capacity as “the maximum number of people that may visit a tourist destination at the same time, without causing destruction of the physical, economic and sociocultural environment and an unacceptable decrease in the quality of visitors’ satisfaction.” But • Carrying capacity is subjective and malleable • Can be extended through site hardening Tourism Theories, Concepts and The unrecognized subtlety in Butler • • • Assume it reflects the whole lifecycle But, the model is open-ended on both the x and y axis Represents individual phases that can be aggregated to reflect the total destination evolution Tourism Theories, Concepts and Plog’s (1974/1976) model Premise • • Destination lifecycles tied to the psychological type of tourist visiting Attract explorers, peak with mass tourists and decline with introverted people who not like to travel Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Core concepts • • • Populations are distributed ‘normally’ Your underlying social psychology drives all behaviours, including tourism By understanding your core psychological profile, we can understand your likely travel behaviour Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and It is a traditional lifecycle model • • His paper states unequivocally (Plog, 1974: 58) “the introduction of each new type of traveler has meant a larger population base from which to draw travelers [but] when the appeal of the resort passes the magic mid-point in the population curve of travelers it begins to draw on a smaller number of travelers.” Elsewhere he adds (Plog, 1974: 58) “thus, we can visualize a destination moving across a spectrum, however gradually or slowly, but far too often inexorably towards the potential of its own demise Destinations carry with them the potential seeds of their own destruction as they allow themselves to be more commercialized and loseTheories, qualities which Tourism Concepts and originally attracted Two features make this model unique 1) 2) Source: Plog 2001 Reads from right to left Groupings are based on responses to a series of Likert scaled questions People who were more likely to answer ‘5’ tend to be Allocentric, whereas those who answer closer to the ‘1’ end of the scale are more Psychocentric Categories are quantitatively based The Midcentric groups capture all those people whose responses were within one standard deviation from the average score, while the other groups are based on scores of between one and two standard deviations and greater than two standard deviations from the mean Tourism Theories, Concepts and Current Segment name Initial name Traditionals Sightseers Journeyers Voyagers Pioneers Venturers PyschocenNear trics Psychocentric About 3% 17% Midcentric Midcentric Near Allocentrics Allocentric 30% 30% 17% about 4% Approximate size of the group Importance and Travel not frequency of important travel Take few trips Preferred types Nearby of travel and well destinations established Major hotel chains Prefer domestic travel and familiar atmosphere Travel not very important Prefer popular places with lots of sunshine Repeat visitor Prefer domestic travel Travel somewhat important Travel important Travel important Very important part of their life Like crowds Prefer a Like foreign Like Travel for modest destinations unknown, fun, selection of Seek new uncommon recreation, good hotels experiences and nonand to Repeat Wanderlust tourist spend time visitors to Soft destinations with family favourite adventure Prefer Prefer places longer domestic Prefer duration travel independent trips travel Want to Wanderlust explore and discover Tourism Concepts, Theories and Models © Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux All rights reserved 2021 Tourism Theories, Concepts and Take Plog’s psychographic test and see what your travel personality is Find the travel quiz here: https://besttripchoices.com/travel-personalities/quiz/ Look at your travel personalities here: https://besttripchoices.com/travel-personalities/ Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Does Plog work in practice? • Good at identifying tourists’ ideal destinations, but not where they actually travel • • More people will visit so called Psychocentric or Traditional destinations, regardless of their profile Actual destination choice reflects distance decay more so than Plog’s psychographic groups Tourism Theories, Concepts and Source: Litvin 2006 further questions 1) 2) What is the role of different motivations play in the travel decision? Do the categories represent the ‘maximum’ type of travel people will be comfortable with? Psychocentric / Traditionals Near Psychocentric / Sightseers Midcentric / Journeyers Tourism Theories, Concepts and Midcentric / Voyagers Near Allocentric / Pionners Allocentric / Venturers The complementarity of Butler and Plog Butler Exploration • Small number and use of local facilities • Intense contact with local residents • Appeal rests with natural and cultural attractions Involvement • Visitor numbers begin to grow • Initial development of tourist facilities • Emergence of a tourist season Development • Well defined tourist area • Development of built attractions • Peak season crowding begins to emerge Consolidation • National and multinational firms are evident • Less growth in new developments • Well defined tourism nodes Stagnation • Peak arrivals reached • Area well known but beginning to lose its appeal • Artificial, built attractions dominate • Heavy reliance on repeat visitation Plog Allocentric / Venturer • First to ‘discover’ new places • Can cope with limited facilities • Prefer heavy interaction with local residents Near Allocentric / Pioneer • Popularise places • Want a comfortable bed • Want tourist facilities Midcentric / Voyageurs & Journeyers • Rapid growth continues • Tourists want better quality and variety in facilities, accommodation and activities Near Pyschocentrics / Sightseers • Want well developed facilities • Prefer built attractions • Want known brands Pyschocentrics / Traditionals • Prefer familiar destinations • Heavy repeat travel • Prefer highly developed places Tourism Theories, Concepts and ... trips travel Want to Wanderlust explore and discover Tourism Concepts, Theories and Models © Bob McKercher and Bruce Prideaux All rights reserved 2021 Tourism Theories, Concepts and Take Plog’s psychographic... destination lifecycle models • Evaluate the validity of Butler’s and Plog’s lifecycle models • Analyse the strengths and limitations of each model • • Compare and contrast the two models and describe... Explain the role of carrying capacity Tourism Theories, Concepts and Models by McKercher and Biological origins of lifecycle models • complementary models • Lifecycle that all higher organisms