TMPD 706 UNIVERSITY OF BRIDGEPORT School of Engineering COURSE OUTLINE TMPD 706 - Quantitative Methodologies Instructor: Course Number: Credit Hours: Office Hours: Elif Kongar Office: 141 TECH TMPD 706 E-mail: kongar@bridgeport.edu Phone: (203) 576-4379 Tuesday: 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM Thursday: 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM [Other times by appointment] Course Description: This course provides the mathematical and statistical preparation to support subsequent doctoral course work within the Technology Management department and prepare the student to apply quantitative methods and data analysis techniques Topics include probability, statistics, measurement and evaluation, sampling, designing studies, linear algebra, linear programming, optimization, simulation, modeling and regression analysis Students make extensive use of leading-edge industry software packages lecture hours, semester-hour credit Course Objective: The purpose of this course is to provide an in depth coverage and applications of production management to complex real-world problems The course aims to develop a sense of critical thinking, learning and problem solving The topics to be covered are: • • • • • • • • • • • • • Basic probability and statistics Marginal and conditional probabilities Regression analysis Basic forecasting methods Linear programming models Simplex method Duality and Sensitivity Assignment problems Transportation problems LINGO programming language Decision making problems Decision trees Decision criteria Textbook: Taha, Hamdy A., Operations Research: An Introduction (9th Edition) Publication Date: September 8, 2010 | ISBN-10: 013255593X | ISBN-13: 978-0132555937,Hardcover: 832 pages, Publisher: Prentice Hall Additional handouts will be provided through out the semester Additional References: Frederick S Hillier and Gerald J Lieberman, Introduction to Operations Research, Seventh Edition, 2001 ISBN # 0072321695 Decision Making and Forecasting by Marshall / Oliver, ISBN: 0-07-048027-3 TMPD 706 Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists – Sixth Edition by Walpole, Myers and Myers, 1998, ISBN: 0-13-840208-6 An Introduction to Management Science by Anderson, Sweeney and Williams ISBN: 0-31479321-6 Quantitative Analysis for Business Decisions by Bierman, Bonini and Hausman, ISBN: 0-25600068-9 Disassembly Modeling for Assembly, Maintenance, Reuse, and recycling, Lambert, A.J.D and Gupta, S.M., CRC Press, 2005 Topics: • • • • • • • • • • • Introduction and Basic Probability and Statistics (2 weeks) Introduction to Decision Analysis (1 week) Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Decision Trees (1 week) Forecasting Techniques (2 weeks) Introduction to Operations Research, Graphical Solution (1 week) Solving Linear Programming Problems: The Simplex Method (1 week) Duality Theory and Sensitivity Analysis (1 week) Lingo Programming Language (1 week) The Transportation and Assignment Problems (1 week) Design of Experiments (2 weeks) Remaining time for student presentation and project demonstrations (2 weeks) Schedule and Classroom: • Thursday 6:15 – 08:45PM • Mandeville Hall, Room 223 (MAN 223) Examinations and Grading Criteria • • • Assignments: 30% - Announced throughout the semester Midterm exam: 35% Final Exam (Project/Paper): 35% - Will be explained in detail during the course Attendance / BB utilization will be considered as a part of the final exam grade Bonus points will be credited throughout the course The grading is subject to change and the changes will be communicated with the students Software: General spreadsheet applications will be used throughout the semester Policies: • • • • • • • Late homework / project assignment submission will not be accepted Three or more unexcused absences will result in an automatic failure Make-up exams / quizzes will not be allowed (except for prior instructor approval for a documented emergency) Homework assignments and programs are due within a week from the assignment date, unless the instructor notes otherwise All homework assignments are to be typed Programs are to be submitted with all I/O files and source code hardcopies Extra credit quizzes, assignments, and programs (if any) will be announced by the instructor TMPD 706 • • It is the student's responsibility to familiarize himself or herself with and adhere to the standards set forth in the policies on cheating and plagiarism as defined in Chapters and of the Key to UB http://www.bridgeport.edu/pages/2623.asp or the appropriate graduate program handbook As a UB policy, it is expected that each student that attends one hour of classroom instruction will require a minimum of two hours of out of class student work each week for approximately fifteen weeks for one semester Assignment Submission Guidelines Computer-type your assignments (preferably MS-Word format) Save your file with a proper filename format: e.g: If the student name is Elif Kongar, student ID# 0123456, Homework Assignment 1; the filename should be: TCMG524_Elif_Kongar_0123456_HW1 Login to myub and click on the Canvas link under Library & Technology Resources Use the first part of your UB email as username (for example: jbond, without the @bridgeport.edu) and follow the instructions to set up your password Sign in to your UB Canvas account and then into the course, e.g “Statistical Quality Control Techniques” to submit your assignments To access Canvas tutorial for faculty: https://bridgeport.instructure.com/courses/900843 UB Canvas account can also be accessed through the URL: https://bridgeport.instructure.com/login Important Dates Classes Begin Midterm Exam Thanksgiving Recess – No Classes Final Exam Last Day of Classes Final Grades Due Monday, 8/29 Thursday, 10/27 Wednesday-Sunday, 11/23 – 11/27 Thursday, 12/1-12/8 Friday, 12/9 Monday, 12/19 Academic Calendar: http://www.bridgeport.edu/academics/academic-calendar/fall-2016-spring-2017/ Grading scale Letter Grade Percentage A AB+ B BC+ C CD+ D D- 94.9 – 100% 90 – 94.8% 87 – 89.9% 83 – 86.9% 80 – 82.9% 77 – 79.9% 73 – 76.9% 70 – 72.9% 67 – 69.9% 63 – 66.9% 60 – 62.9% TMPD 706 F Below 60% TMPD 706 Weekly Schedule Weekly Schedule (8/29/16 12/9/16) Please note that the class notes and handouts are updated every week Week Date Topic • • • • 9/1 Syllabus Introduction to the Class Basic probability and statistics Marginal and conditional probabilities 9/8 9/15 9/22 9/29 • 10/6 • 10/13 10/20 10/27 Midterm Exam 10 11/3 11 11/10 The Transportation and Assignment Problems Assignment 7-8 12 11/17 Assignment 5-6 due 13 11/24 Assignment 7-8 due Course Review • Regression analysis Assignment 1-2 • Introduction to Decision Analysis o Expected (monetary) value o Maximin (conservative, pessimistic) o Maximax (optimistic, desperate) o Maximin regret (conservative, pessimistic) • Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Decision Trees Assignment 1-2 due Forecasting Techniques o Moving Average o Weighted Moving Average o Exponential Smoothing o Others Forecasting Techniques – Error Measurement (technique evaluation) o Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) o Mean squared error (standard error) o Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) Assignment 3-4 • Introduction to Operations Research, Graphical Solution • Solving Linear Programming Problems: The Simplex Method Assignment 3-4 due • Ranking o Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) o Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Assignment 5-6 TMPD 706 14-15 12/1- Final Project Discussion– Final Project Due 12/8