Renewable Groundwater -Mid-term evaluation report

Background of Evaluation

Evaluated Project

The Eastern Desert Project is a Targeted Research Project (TRP) focused on creating a replicable model for integrating renewable groundwater resources into national water budgets in arid regions Utilizing the Eastern Desert of Egypt as a pilot site, the project aims to develop and validate techniques for assessing alternative water resources from sporadic precipitation across large watersheds Comprehensive methodologies will include geochemical and isotopic analysis, groundwater modeling, satellite imagery, seismic data, and field observations The goal is to establish procedures for accurately estimating the distribution, quantity, and development potential of groundwater resources, which can be applied in Egypt and similar countries This initiative will support the Government of Egypt in addressing water demand and contribute to national water resource management strategies, minimizing environmental, financial, and social risks.

Purpose of Evaluation

UNDP has launched a midterm evaluation to assess the project's achievements in relation to its original goals, offering an independent review for donors, government, and project partners This evaluation examines the project's technical and managerial aspects, focusing on effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, impact, and sustainability, and highlights the factors that have both supported and hindered the attainment of project objectives.

Methodology & Limitations

The review was carried out through interviews with project partners, UNDP/GEF representatives, selected trainees, and steering committee members Additionally, it involved an analysis of project documents such as the Project Terms of Reference (TOR), Implementation Reports (IR), Training Courses Evaluation Forms, and Annual Progress Reports Furthermore, insights were gathered from a Regional Seminar on Project Progress held in Cairo in December 2005.

The review was constrained by time limitations and restricted access to the field, preventing an assessment of the project implementation tasks Furthermore, it did not evaluate the quality control procedures for the fieldwork and data collection conducted.

Conclusions of Findings

Positive Findings

The findings are summarized as follows:

 Project is relevant to Egypt development priorities

Egypt faces significant challenges due to its rapidly growing population, including unsustainable government subsidies and declining water availability per capita and per acre This is compounded by deteriorating water quality, marked by issues such as salinity, pollution, and inadequate rural sanitation The country's water policy focuses on assessing current water resources, which include the annual 55.5 billion cubic meters from the Nile and an additional 9 billion cubic meters from anticipated projects Furthermore, the initiative aims to evaluate the potential for groundwater extraction in the Eastern Desert, assisting the government in managing these vital resources effectively.

The project evaluated the potential of water resources in underdeveloped farming communities, which have been overlooked for years, aiming to alleviate poverty and improve their livelihoods.

 Good coordination by UNDP/GEF local office between project partners.

The project's targeted research and execution phases posed challenges in coordinating diverse partners with differing backgrounds and expectations However, the UNDP/GEF local office effectively managed this coordination, leading to positive feedback from partners who expressed their appreciation for the efforts made to ensure smooth collaboration.

 Training Courses are well conducted.

The project exceeded the number of training courses that was agreed upon during the period of the project Some courses were repeated and additional courses were introduced.

 Well-developed online Website for the project.

The website constructed by the Michigan University for this project was innovative, informative and represented a valuable resource.

 Linking target research with field implementation.

The project initiative effectively connects the academic sector with fieldwork institutions, showcasing a successful collaboration between the MWRI research unit, represented by NWRC, and CU/IC This partnership is crucial as NWRC leverages existing field data collected by its institutes while CU/IC enhances this data further Additionally, NWRC has set clear expectations for the MWRI Groundwater Sector regarding the anticipated outcomes of the project.

 Project is relevant to UNDP/GEF priorities

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) offers grants through 15 Operational Programs (OPs), with eleven aligned to its primary focal areas: four in biodiversity, four in climate change, and three in international waters Specifically, the international waters OP emphasizes the ecological health of transboundary water bodies, while Operational Program Number 9 targets area-wide interventions that integrate land and water management The project's outcomes are applicable to similar arid regions, enhancing the effectiveness of integrated land and water management practices.

 Project is publicized in national and international meetings

Six presentations have been delivered, including three workshops organized by CEDARE Notably, one talk was given at an international waters conference in Salvador, Brazil, in June 2005, hosted by GEF Additionally, a presentation took place in September 2005 at a UNESCO and GEF conference on Aquifer Recharge management in New Delhi Another talk is scheduled for the 4th World Water Forum in Mexico.

 Utilization of surface/groundwater models to estimate the groundwater potential

The role of surface/groundwater modeling in groundwater assessment was crucial in the project phases.

The project exhibited strong financial management, utilizing a "payment upon delivery" approach for task completion, which effectively minimizes unnecessary or unsatisfactory expenditures.

 Project Partners are competent to accomplish the required tasks.

Scientists from CU, NWRC, MWRI and IC are well trained on surface and groundwater modeling, use of new technology of remote sensing and other relevant techniques in hydrologic systems.

 Innovative approach for groundwater assessment

The project established a technical methodology for assessing groundwater in arid regions, where data is often limited or inconsistent This approach can be utilized in similar areas both within Egypt and internationally The findings will support government agricultural development policies aimed at settling communities in new lands by utilizing alternative water resources, moving beyond traditional sources like the Nile River and non-renewable groundwater.

Areas for Potential Improvement

The areas for potential improvement can be accomplished if time and budget permits The main areas were:

 Lack of field data to verify modeling efforts

The absence of field data, highlighted by the lack of installed rain gauges for calibrating NASA TRMM data and the failure to drill additional wells, has significantly impacted research in the study areas.

 Lack of integrated research between the IC, CU and Research Institutes

The modeling efforts by IC, CU, and RIGW were divided among specific regions, including Wadi El Assiuti, Wadi Dara, and Wadi Kena Each partner focused on modeling their assigned area; however, there was a lack of interaction and experience exchange among the partners Consequently, this limited capacity building and knowledge sharing in groundwater modeling, resulting in varying levels of expertise across the three regions.

The project did not present the results in layman terms in local news media

 Environmental impact assessment was not accomplished

The project did not yet accomplish an environmental assessment and impact evaluation of the groundwater development in the eastern desert.

 The project did not specifically address the investment potential

The project explores various development scenarios but currently lacks a specific investment plan that leverages investment potentials Although addressing this issue wasn't the project's primary aim, proposing such a plan would greatly benefit the country Additionally, it is essential for the project to consider the socio-economic impacts of the proposed development.

The geophysical investigation was limited to specific area of investigation and was not expanded to provide regional scope for the eastern desert project

 No effective role for the laboratory of hydraulic modeling in CU.

Although already existing in CU, there has been no evidence of considerable contribution of the laboratory of hydraulic modeling to the conducted tasks of the project.

Recommendations

General Recommendations

These recommendations should be considered for the short/long term of the project and after the project completion

1 The project should be considered as a lead example in arid zones for utilizing target research and applying scientific tools in addition to base knowledge in order to serve development purposes

2 Target research projects should be encouraged by GEF and this project should be utilized to demonstrate the role of good management of groundwater to release the stress on the use of surface water.

3 Utilization of geo-referenced Landsat Thematic Mapper data to identify surface runoff and recharge rates should be utilized to compensate for lack of field data.

4 Utilization of geochemistry and isotopic analysis for groundwater potential in the eastern desert should be further utilized in similar arid lands.

5 The Government of Egypt should utilize the outcome of this project in agricultural, urban, tourism and industrial development planning in theEastern desert.

Recommendations for Immediate Implementation

These recommendations should be considered in the very near future in order for them to be feasibly implemented before the end of the project.

1 Considering the tasks that need to be fulfilled and the positive accomplishments that have already been conducted, the project period should be extended to the first quarter of 2007 as a practical time scheme for the completion of the project objectives.

2 Interaction, communication and technical expertise exchange need to be strengthened and enhanced between the IC and the NWRC.

3 If budget permits, at least two wells need to be drilled in the eastern desert to provide additional data and verify the developed models.

4 Geophysical investigation needs to be expanded to provide regional scope for the eastern desert project.

5 The project needs to accomplish the environmental impact assessment for the studies area.

6 Relocate the laboratory for hydrologic modeling at Cairo University (CU) to the Faculty of Engineering to improve utilization and accessibility to the lab.

7 Increase the meetings/workshops between the partners working on the of remaining tasks Project steering committee members may attend the meeting to give periodical evaluation and guidance.

8 Representatives of other concerned stakeholders, mainly Ministry of

Agriculture, local communities should be invited to take part in the steering committee

Recommendations for implementation before project closure

These recommendations should be implemented before the end of the project depending on budget and time practicality.

1 The results and proved/ tested technologies of this project in the eastern desert should be largely disseminated to be further utilized in Egypt and other countries by future related projects.

2 The project should, even if it is not the target objective of the project, specifically provide an assessment for future investment potential in the area (mainly for urban/agricultural/other uses) Such issue could assist the NWRC for implementing further investigation in the area

3 The project needs to address the socio-economic impact of the proposed development (if any) as it was recommended in the workshop of December 2005.

4 The project should utilize the local media to publicize the findings and recommendations of the project.

5 A strategic plan for the exploitation of available water resources should be drafted This plan, based on the expertise gained during the implementation of the project, could be used as a directive for further activities or investigation

6 Finalize a development plan (e.g preliminary master plan) with alternative scenarios for the study area focusing on the integrated management and use of surface and groundwater The plan should take into account the economic aspect of water delivery and define the rate of extraction and quantity of available water resources.

7 Test additional techniques for optimizing use of runoff such as flood spreading, rainwater harvesting using cistern, study the relationship between surface and groundwater for artificial recharge to groundwater and remote sensing (TRMM, ASTER,SRTM) that were proved to be useful in arid lands

8 A regional workshop should be organized with 2-3 month before the end of the project In addition to project partners, the workshop should involve representatives from the main concerned beneficiaries of the project including local communities, Ministry of Agriculture, investors, press, neighboring countries, regional and international organizations.

9 Develop some guidelines and directives for the use of different techniques tested and validated in this project.

10 It is necessary to discuss within the remaining time of the project with the

The Ministry of Agriculture, along with local communities, should focus on optimizing the use of available groundwater and exploring socio-economic development strategies To ensure the success of these initiatives, it may be essential to seek additional external resources if project funds are insufficient.

11 It is necessary to find in cooperation with the ministry of agriculture some alternative solution for using available brackish water in the area to alleviate the pressure on nonrenewable groundwater from the Nubian (by incorporating new varieties of crop supporting salinity and even develop new crop pattern with high added value and consuming less water)

12 The data base developed should be maintained and updated by a partner institute.

13 A monitoring program for groundwater, surface runoff, precipitation in the study area should be performed.

14 A committee from the executing agency (Cairo University) and NWRC should be formed for planning and follow up the implementation of the recommendations.

Lessons Learnt

Technical Approach

1 GIS and geo-referenced Landsat Thematic Mapper data can be used as initial estimates to identify surface runoff and recharge rates in the case of lack of field data.

2 The use of isotopic analysis to identify groundwater recharge source(s) and age proved to be very effective.

3 The technical procedures tested within the present project could be applied in other areas in Egypt as well as in neighboring countries with similar natural conditions to enable the planning of land reclamation with minimum environmental, financial and social impacts.

4 Integration of groundwater modeling with surface modeling can be very effective to simulate groundwater scenarios in arid areas.

5 Utilization of Geostatistics (that was not used in this project) could have enhanced the extrapolation of limited data at the region.

6 Presence of environmental, social and financial consultants in similar projects may assist in the completion of an integrated development plan during the progress of the project.

Project Management

1 Cooperation and coordination between different partners contributing to similar projects could become a bottle-neck and critical factor for the successful completion of the objectives.

2 Technical competence of partners and ease of exchange/enhancement of information is crucial for similar projects.

3 In terms of financial project management, the implementation of “payment upon delivery” concept between various partners avoids un- required/unsatisfactory spending.

Strategic Planning

poverty within the local communities and help in developing new agriculture communities out side the Nile Delta and River Nile valley.

2 Target research can benefit strategic development planning especially in complicated and remote areas.

3 The Eastern desert is a potential region for future development and investment. Carefully studied planning proved to be essential for sustainable development in this region and similar locations.

4 The technical procedures tested within the present project could be applied in other areas in Egypt as well as in neighboring countries with similar natural conditions to enable planning of land reclamation with minimum environmental, financial and social risks

5 The project proved that it is possible to develop procedures that could be used to assess and estimate accurately the available water resources with minimum field data and information, which is the main characteristic of arid areas.

Overview

The MENA region, known for its extreme aridity, faces significant water scarcity exacerbated by a rapidly growing population In Egypt, per capita conventional water resources have dramatically decreased from 2,730 m³/year in 1950 to approximately 870 m³/year in 2000, with projections suggesting a further decline to around 600 m³/year by 2025 This alarming trend places Egypt well below the internationally accepted benchmark of 1,000 m³/year per capita, indicating a looming chronic water scarcity that threatens development and public health To address this critical issue, developing additional water resources is essential for supporting the country's development plans.

Over the past thirty years, the UNDP has implemented numerous projects focused on the development, management, and sustainable use of water resources in the region The current project, funded by UNDP/GEF, aims to create a replicable model that integrates renewable groundwater resources into water budgets for arid regions This initiative will help Egypt establish communities in new areas beyond the traditional Nile Delta and river valley, utilizing non-conventional water resources to meet the growing water demand while reducing pressure on surface water resources and preserving freshwater ecosystems.

Background of Evaluation

The UNDP has launched a midterm evaluation as a key component of its project implementation cycle to assess the project's achievements relative to its initial objectives This independent review aims to inform donors, government entities, and project partners about the current status of the project By examining both technical and managerial aspects, the report evaluates the project's effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, impact, and sustainability, while also highlighting the factors that have supported or hindered the attainment of its goals.

The midterm evaluation aims to provide outputs and recommendations that will help realign and enhance ongoing project activities By formulating actionable recommendations, the evaluation seeks to optimize project outcomes and ensure the achievement of objectives Additionally, insights gained from this process should be applied and replicated in similar regional contexts to maximize effectiveness.

Objectives of Evaluation

General Objectives

1 Assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the project;

2 Provide recommendations that would assist in the successful completion of the project; and

3 Provide lesson learnt to be adopted in future similar projects.

Specific Objectives

1 Assess the project design in terms of relevance to Egypt’s developed priorities, UNDP practice areas, GEF themes and needs of beneficiaries and review of project concept and design in relation to the addressed challenges and stated approach for addressing them;

2 Assess the project Impact in terms of achievements to date against the original objectives, outputs and activities using both process oriented and technical environmental indicators; and

3 Evaluate project Implementation in terms of management arrangements,quality and timeliness of output and activities, financial situation including effectiveness, partner cooperation, capacity building etc.

Methodology & Limitations of Evaluation

The evaluation was conducted based on:

 Interviews with various partners of the project, UNDP/GEF representative, selected trainees, international consultant and steering committee members;

 Review of project documents including Project TOR, IR, Training Courses Evaluation Forms, and Annual Progress Reports; and

 Regional Seminar on the Project Progress conducted in Cairo, December 2005.

The review was constrained by time limitations and restricted access to the field, which prevented an assessment of the project implementation tasks Furthermore, the review did not include a verification of the quality control procedures related to the fieldwork and data collection processes.

Background

The project titled "Developing Renewable Groundwater Resources in Arid Lands: A Pilot Case – The Eastern Desert of Egypt" commenced in September 2002, with its inception report approved in October of the same year for a duration of 36 months Although officially initiated in 2003, the project was later extended until August.

The 2006 Targeted Research Project (TRP) aims to create a replicable model for integrating renewable groundwater resources into national water budgets in arid regions, with Egypt selected as a test site due to its ideal climatic and hydrologic conditions that reflect those of neighboring countries The intricate networks of valleys in the Red Sea Hills facilitate the collection of rainfall as surface runoff and groundwater, making the extensive Qena watershed (15,000 km²) particularly suitable for channeling rainwater and recharging aquifers These favorable topographic and climatic conditions are also found in regions across Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and mountainous areas in North Africa Additionally, Egypt's heavy reliance on surface water from the Nile River and fossil groundwater from the Nubian aquifer has detrimental effects on its freshwater ecosystems Notably, geo-chemical studies reveal that flash flood waters stored in shallow aquifers over the past 45 years are a significant source of groundwater in the Wadi El Tarfa area.

Project Objectives & Expected Outputs

The project aimed to create a replicable integrated technique for assessing renewable groundwater resources in arid regions, using Egypt's Eastern Desert as a pilot site A thorough study was conducted to analyze the distribution and recharge rates of alluvial aquifers This model is designed to be applicable to similar projects across Egypt, including Sinai, as well as in Nile Basin countries like Sudan and Ethiopia, and in northern Africa and the Middle East, such as the Tibesti mountains in Libya It can also be adapted for arid regions globally with comparable topographic features that collect meteoric waters from mountainous areas.

The project aims to support the Egyptian government in fulfilling national objectives and policies by addressing the rising demand for water, while also reducing the strain on surface water resources and preserving freshwater ecosystems.

The expected outputs from the project were mainly:

 Identification of source, extent, and histories of groundwater in alluvial aquifers under investigation;

The study focuses on the development of a Rainfall/Surface Runoff model to assess the timing of the recharge cycle and evaluate the renewable groundwater resources replenished by rainwater in the Red Sea Hills region of the Eastern Desert.

 Construction of groundwater flow model, and investigation of groundwater flow in the alluvial aquifers flooring one of the main valleys of the Eastern Desert.

 Production of a replicable model in neighboring Middle Eastern and Saharan countries, thus contributing to the preservation of freshwater ecosystems in the area;

 Assessment of adverse ecological effects that could result from the exploitation of the investigated freshwater resources; and

 Providing in-country and out-of-country scientific, technical, and research- oriented training and outreach activities centering on the assessment of alternative water resources.

Project Shareholders

The main stakeholders of this project were mainly:

 The National Water Research Center (NWRC) including the Research Institute for Groundwater (RIGW) and Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI);

 The Groundwater Sector at the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI); and

The project not only benefited its main stakeholders but also supported educational and governmental institutions in neighboring third-world countries, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East, by enabling them to replicate the successful Egyptian model Scientists from Cairo University (CU) and the National Water Research Center (NWRC) received essential training in technical procedures, which facilitated the joint implementation of project activities to achieve desired outcomes Upon project completion, CU and NWRC scientists will be equipped to offer scientific, technical, and practical guidance to their peers and officials in neighboring countries, promoting the application of the Egyptian model Additionally, the farming community in the eastern desert of Upper Egypt, long neglected, stands to gain significantly from this pilot project.

Review of Tasks

Reviewing the project design as stated in the Terms of Reference, the tasks can be categorized as follows:

Following are the associated tasks (indicators) for the above categories and percentage of completion up-to-date of evaluation process.

 Training and capacity building should be completed subject to:

 Organize a short course (3-5 days) on the use of isotopic and geochemical data to investigate the sources of groundwater

 Organize training course(s) in the general area of remote sensing and image processing.

 Acquire training on the use of surface runoff modeling.

 Conduct training on the use of Groundwater Modeling (GMS software).

 Information dissemination should be completed subject to:

 Organize and maintain throughout the duration of the project, a library (documentation unit).

 Organize three international meetings (one each year).

 Organize meetings for the steering committee (on a semi-annual basis).

 Conduct routine reporting (quarterly and annually) to UNDP and CU.

 Present results in refereed international journals (at least one manuscript should be accepted prior to the beginning of the third year).

 Publicize results by giving talks in national and international meetings (at least two talks per year).

 Present the results in layman terms in local news media.

 Project operational setup should be completed subject to:

 Assemble the core (full-time) project administration team.

 Prepare a tender document and detailed TOR for the IC.

 Evaluate various responses to the tender document and select the IC.

 Research setup should be completed subject to:

 Develop a laboratory for hydrologic modeling at Cairo University (CU)

 Review and compile existing studies and data.

 Laboratory analysis should be completed subject to:

 Identify appropriate laboratories (overseas/national) to conduct geochemical and isotopic analyses.

 Analyze acquired and published geochemical, isotopic, field, and head information.

 Field work should be completed subject to:

 Organize and conduct a field trip (10 to 14 days) to collect groundwater samples, relevant hydrologic parameters, and geologic observations.

 Organize a field trip to perform infiltration tests.

 Collect and analyze soil samples to obtain the average chloride concentration of the soil water.

 Set up a network of rain gauges.

 Identify appropriate locations for stream flow gauges.

 Collect real-time precipitation and flow data.

 Research obligations should be completed subject to:

 Compute recharge rates using the chloride mass-balance approach.

 Generate digital terrain elevation data.

 Generate a mosaic of geo-referenced Landsat Thematic Mapper data.

 Generate a digital mosaic from 1:500,000 geologic maps.

 Generate a regional digital distribution map for soil and rock hydrologic characteristics.

 Co-register the digital mosaics.

 Define criteria for validating the model and examine the validity of the model against available field observations.

 Select the most appropriate watershed(s) to conduct groundwater studies.

 Develop a conceptual ground water flow model.

 Construct and calibrate a 2-D groundwater flow model.

 Conduct steady-state and transient simulations.

 Explore the utility of recently developed commercial software for coupled surface runoff/groundwater flow models.

 Assess any adverse ecological effects that could result from the exploitation of the investigated freshwater resources.

 Implementation Obligations should be completed subject to:

 Drill two to five wells.

 Conduct a series of pumping tests.

A detailed evaluation of accomplished tasks is presented in Section 5.1.

Review of Project Document

The following comments are based on the review of available project documentation:

 References mentioned in documentation were not recent

Some of the figures presented in the project document were not recent For example, in 2003 year of project implementation, the actual population of

Egypt was around 72 millions However, the figure given in the document was 60 millions

 Reference for related on-going activities were not given.

No reference was given in the document to any on going activities and projects or economic activities in the study area.

 Problem development is missing in the project document

The project document lacked a comprehensive description of the social dynamics and local communities in the studied area, along with the economic rationale for its selection Notably, the Western Desert has experienced more development efforts compared to the Eastern Desert, yet this disparity was not addressed in the document.

 Non-participation of Nile Basin Initiative and selected neighboring countries.

The idea that representatives from neighboring countries and from Nile Basin Initiative to joint the steering committee, as stated in the project document, was good, but was not implemented.

Review of Stated Outputs

 Major output should be a development plan, but not only recommendations for further studies.

The project successfully established clear linkages among its objectives, activities, outputs, expected outcomes, and impacts To maximize the benefits of testing and developing procedures for accurately estimating groundwater resources, the MWRC and MWRI should create a comprehensive development action plan This plan, based on the insights and experiences gained throughout the project, will serve as a crucial output and guide future interventions by the NWRC and MWRI in the region.

 Outputs 4 & 6 were difficult to assess during the project period.

While most objectives and outputs were clearly defined, realistic, and easily verifiable, Outputs 4 and 6 posed challenges during the project’s implementation Output 4 aimed to create a replicable model for neighboring Middle Eastern and Saharan countries to help preserve freshwater ecosystems, while Output 6 focused on providing scientific training and outreach on alternative water resources These outputs may be better achieved as a follow-up to the project, once the necessary technologies have been thoroughly tested, validated, and evaluated.

 Future of Database management of project website was not clear.

The data collected by various stakeholders has become a valuable research resource, yet it remains unclear whether a centralized database has been established or if the information is scattered across different institutes involved in the project It is crucial for data related to geology, geophysics, hydrology, climatology, water levels, water quality, and digitized maps to be stored in an accessible database for future activities While the project’s website may host some of this data, questions linger about its maintenance post-project, specifically regarding management and accessibility by involved institutes or CU To ensure the longevity and usability of this valuable data, it is essential that a partner institute takes responsibility for maintaining the developed database after the project concludes.

Project Relevance

Project Relevance to GEF

The project aligns with the strategic goals of the GEF Operational Program 9, focusing on Integrated Land and Water Multiple Focal Areas It emphasizes the importance of integrated management of surface and groundwater resources, particularly in transboundary basins and ecologically significant dryland regions The Red Sea hills feature minor valleys that capture surface runoff from precipitation, effectively recharging the alluvial and limestone aquifers beneath these areas.

The demonstration project can be effectively replicated in Middle Eastern, Saharan, and Sub-Saharan countries, as similar conditions are observed in Egypt, Sudan, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the mountainous regions of North Africa.

Project Relevance to UNDP

The reviewers also agree that the project complies with the UNDP water strategy issued in March 1998 in consistence with the decision of UN General Assembly in

In 1997, the Commission on Sustainable Development identified the sustainable management of water resources as a key priority area, highlighting its significance in the current project’s objectives.

The project aligns with various UNDP-supported initiatives focused on water resources development, usage, and management over the past thirty years, emphasizing its significance in the field of water exploration.

The 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio resulted in Agenda 21, a comprehensive global action plan that seeks to harmonize development with environmental sustainability Specifically, Chapter 18 of Agenda 21 addresses water resources, outlining seven critical areas for priority action This project aligns with the recommended actions from Chapter 18, focusing on integrated water resources development and the protection of water resources.

Relevance to Egypt

The project aligns with Egypt's development priorities by focusing on securing essential water resources to enhance economic livelihoods and facilitate the development of new communities beyond the Nile Valley It emphasizes the increased utilization of groundwater for irrigation and desert reclamation, particularly in the Eastern Desert, which is a key area for urbanization and land reclamation The methodology established in this project can serve as a valuable framework for future research in similar regions of Egypt Efforts to explore and optimize additional water resources in desert areas, including rainfall, runoff, and renewable groundwater from alluvial wadi aquifers, will significantly benefit the country's economy.

The project's development objective aligns with national priorities outlined in Egypt's 21st Century water policy, emphasizing the enhancement of groundwater as a vital non-conventional water resource.

Effectiveness

The project results addressed the needs of the Groundwater Sector within the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, offering valuable insights into potential water resources in the less-explored eastern desert While the findings may not be entirely precise and warrant additional investigation, they provide a foundational understanding of the aquifer necessary for promoting sustainable development in the region.

Certain project status activities proved technically infeasible, such as employing the chloride mass balance approach to estimate recharge rates This method requires specific precautions that are challenging to implement in field settings Moreover, the accuracy of the results is often compromised and heavily reliant on the prevailing field conditions.

A monthly progress report will be created for project partners to support their oversight roles, enhancing the monitoring and evaluation of project implementation Progress reports are submitted to UNDP every three months and can be accessed upon request It is advisable to distribute these reports to all stakeholders and publish them on the project website to improve information dissemination.

Annual reports from the project manager were essential for evaluating project achievements, particularly the June 2005 progress report While the report utilized appropriate quantitative indicators, it lacked a qualitative assessment of the outputs, especially regarding modeling efforts intended for replication in other regions The groundwater and surface water models were based on limited spatial and temporal data, typical in arid areas, raising concerns about their validation For instance, the groundwater model in the Dara area relied on a few boreholes and monitoring levels, prompting questions about the reliability of the results To address these issues, it is crucial to develop guidelines that capture lessons learned from various modeling applications, as well as recommendations for alternative solutions and approaches, which would also benefit the remote sensing activities conducted in the project.

The evaluation for the status of the conducted tasks is provided in details in the following table.

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

Training & Capacity Building Organize a short course (3-5 days) on the use of isotopic and geochemical data to investigate the sources of groundwater

 Done  Not Done Done twice

The training courses provided have surpassed the initial project requirements outlined in the IR However, due to the project's technical complexity, Ministry personnel need further training to effectively replicate the project independently in various regions.

Organize training course(s) in the general area of remote sensing and image processing.

Done twice Acquire training on the use of surface runoff modeling  Done  Not Done

Conduct training on the use of Groundwater Modeling

 Done  Not Done Done twice

Information Dissemination Design an information system  Done  Not Done

All project outputs are stored on CDs and submitted to the Ministry

This project stands out for its exceptional transparency in information dissemination To enhance its impact, it is crucial to effectively communicate the project findings to the public and investors using suitable media channels.

Construct a web page  Done  Not Done

A web site has been constructed by the Western MichiganUniversity to present project outputs.

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

Organize and maintain throughout the duration of the project, a library (documentation unit)

Hard copies of project documents exist at the PM unit.

The GW sector is actually utilizing the library as a valuable information resource

Construct a digital backup system  Done  Not Done

Organize three international meetings (one each year)  Done  Not Done

Two meetings are done One at

Organize meetings for the steering committee (on a semi-annual basis)

Done on annual basis Conduct routine reporting (quarterly and annually) to

Done quarterly and annually Present results in refereed international journals (at least one manuscript should be accepted prior to the beginning of the third year)

Published 3 papers and one under publication One master thesis done in CU The candidate traveled to USA.

Another 1 master and 1 Ph.D. students are conducted atWestern Michigan University

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

Publicize results by giving talks in national and international meetings (at least two talks per year)

Six talks have been presented.

CEDARE participated in three workshops, including a notable presentation at a GEF-organized water conference in Salvador, Brazil, which highlighted the potential for funding similar groundwater development projects Additionally, in September 2005, a presentation was delivered at a conference in New Delhi focusing on aquifer management, further underscoring the project's significance and reception.

Recharge management organized by UNESCO and JEFF Another talk will be presented during the 4WWF in Mexico.

Present the results in layman terms in local news media  Done  Not Done

Prepare Inception Report  Done  Not Done  Satisfactory  Unsatisfactory

The overall project preparation and management is very well done It counts for the management its

Assemble Steering Committee  Done  Not Done

Assemble Project Management Committee  Done  Not Done

Assemble the core (full-time) project administration team  Done  Not Done

Prepare a tender document and detailed TOR for the IC  Done  Not Done

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

Project Operational Setup approach in payment upon delivery basis for the conducted tasks Such approach should be extended in similar projects to ensure satisfactory completion of project set tasks.

Evaluate various responses to the tender document and select the IC

Research Setup Develop a laboratory for hydrologic modeling at Cairo

University (CU) Faculty of Engineering

 Done  Not Done Lab is available

 Can’t evaluate at this time

Accessibility is not satisfactory and we recommend to be moved to Faculty of Engineering.

Review and compile existing studies and data  Done  Not Done

Laboratory Analysis Identify appropriate laboratories (overseas/national) to conduct geochemical and isotopic analyses

 Done  Not Done All geochemistry is done

Need to Expand on the geophysical tasks to give more regional coverage

Analyze acquired and published geochemical, isotopic, field, and head information

Soil sampling (infiltration and sieve analysis)

Field Work Organize and conduct a field trip (10 to 14 days) to collect groundwater samples, relevant hydrologic parameters, and geologic observations

Five field trips were conducted (each was 3-5 days) to different locations.

 Can’t evaluate at this time

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

The significant shortage of field data to validate and calibrate the established models presents critical challenges Therefore, if funding permits, it is advisable to install at least two additional wells to confirm the groundwater model outputs Furthermore, the installation of multiple rain gauges at different project locations is essential to validate the recharge calculations performed by the research team.

Also geophysical investigation should be expanded to provide a regional scope for the eastern desert project.

Organize a field trip to perform infiltration tests  Done  Not Done

Collect and analyze soil samples to obtain the average chloride concentration of the soil water.

Set up a network of rain gauges  Done  Not Done

Only one rain gauge is installed in Hurgada.

Identify appropriate locations for stream flow gauges  Done  Not Done

Collect real-time precipitation and flow data  Done  Not Done

Done at CU but not at site Construct a surface runoff model  Done  Not Done

Collect geophysical data  Done  Not Done

Done for wadi dara and 50% done for wadi Kena

Research Obligations Compute recharge rates using the chloride mass- balance approach

 Done  Not Done Not done because of lack of soil/water separating equipment

Although the research obligations are not yet done at this time of the project, however, the research obligations seem to be satisfactory progressing towards completion

In addition to the environmental assessment and impact evaluation that will be conducted before the

Generate digital terrain elevation data  Done  Not Done

Generate a mosaic of geo-referenced Landsat Thematic

Generate a digital mosaic from 1:500,000 geologic maps

Generate a regional digital distribution map for soil and rock hydrologic characteristics

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

Recommendations completion of the project, it is recommended to perform a socio- economic impact analysis for the project on the existing community and investment potential.

Co-register the digital mosaics  Done  Not Done

Define criteria for validating the model and examine the validity of the model against available field observations

 Done  Not Done The model was calibrated but not yet verified because of lack of field data Estimate recharge rates during the selected storm events

Examining the recurrence of large storm event (using 50 years data)

Select the most appropriate watershed(s) to conduct groundwater studies

Develop a conceptual ground water flow model  Done  Not Done

(assiuti and dara) Construct and calibrate a 2-D groundwater flow model  Done  Not Done

Calibrate the model  Done  Not Done

Conduct steady-state and transient simulations  Done  Not Done

Explore the utility of recently developed commercial software for coupled surface runoff/groundwater flow models

Explore alternative development scenarios (if possible )  Done  Not Done

Assess any adverse ecological effects that could result from the exploitation of the investigated freshwater resources

Conducted Tasks Comments Overall Evaluation /

Implementation Obligations Drill two to five wells  Done  Not Done

One at Wadi Dara And one at Sheikh Shazly

 Can’t evaluate at this time

Still recommend to drill additional wells according to project findings.Conduct a series of pumping tests  Done  Not Done

Comments on some of the reports prepared by the project’;

The report by the International Consultant examines the application of remote sensing and GIS techniques for hydro-geological investigations of wadi systems in Egypt's Eastern Desert It emphasizes an interdisciplinary approach that integrates remote sensing data with geochemistry, field geology, drilling, and geophysics, facilitated by Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Key features include the use of global datasets from SRTM and ASTER, which enhance the accuracy of hydro-geological assessments, particularly in identifying lineaments in outcropping rocks where groundwater exploration is promising However, accessibility to these advanced technologies remains a significant constraint, as obtaining data from ASTER and SRTM can be costly and limited for many countries.

The report titled "Geochemical and Isotopic Constraints on the Origin of Eastern Desert Groundwater," prepared by the University of Illinois with international consultancy, employs stable isotopic techniques to trace groundwater origins and connections between aquifers in the region The findings reveal distinct sources of groundwater from shallow and Nubian aquifers, utilizing cost-effective methods For dating groundwater, the report recommends using chlorine-36, a natural radioactive tracer that can determine the age of ancient water exceeding 100,000 years, surpassing the 40,000-year limit of carbon-14 dating However, the use of chlorine-36 is limited due to its high costs, lack of widespread laboratory capabilities, and minimal practical application in hydrogeology, as distinguishing between ages beyond 40,000 years does not alter the classification of water as non-renewable.

The Research Institute for Groundwater conducted geophysical investigations in Wadi Dara, utilizing geo-electrical methods to define the hydro-geological setting and delineate subsurface succession This cost-effective and widely recognized technique proved effective for groundwater exploration, yielding valuable results that demonstrate the thoroughness of the study.

- 4-Surface and groundwater modeling: Several models on surface and groundwater have been prepared such as:

- For Wadi Dara surface and groundwater models

- For Wadi Qena surface and groundwater models

- For Wadi Assuity groundwater model

- For Wadi Abbad surface water model

- For Wadi Sannour surface water model

In total 3 groundwater models and 5 surface water models.

For surface water, all modeling work was based on using WMS (Watershed

The reliability of management system software is often compromised due to the lack of comprehensive rainfall and runoff data across various models Most studies rely on limited data from nearby stations, failing to account for localized storm events typical in arid regions, particularly in elevated catchment areas where rainfall recorders are absent Additionally, the sporadic nature of available rainfall data can significantly affect simulation outcomes To ensure the accuracy of model outputs, it is crucial to conduct further measurements, including rainfall and infiltration tests in select areas with flood gauges Validating these models through calibration at even a single site allows for more credible results, which can then be generalized for future research.

To effectively validate the models, it is advisable to install a flood gauge and rainfall recorders in one of the wadis before the project concludes, ensuring accurate calibration of the selected model.

Groundwater modeling using GMS software requires careful monitoring of groundwater levels, water quality, and extraction volumes to effectively calibrate the models.

The techniques and methodologies utilized in this project were effective and suitable for hydro-geological investigations, yielding high-quality results that are invaluable for the exploration phase.

Efficiency

Even with the delay in startup, the project used its resources effectively to implement most of the activities included in the project document to produce the target outputs.

The project successfully developed a replicable integrated technique for assessing renewable groundwater resources, focusing on alluvial aquifer distribution and recharge rates, as well as surface runoff Key outputs aligned with the project's objectives, largely due to the strong collaboration between the National Water Research Center (NWRC) and the project team Additionally, engaging young specialists and encouraging them to pursue advanced degrees (M.Sc or Ph.D.) significantly contributed to achieving these outcomes Cairo University played a crucial role in coordinating the project, facilitating training for these specialists, and providing the necessary scientific foundation to complete various tasks and attain their academic qualifications.

The lack of local community involvement in the project's planning and monitoring hindered the assessment of local expertise, particularly regarding gender The predominant Bedouin community in the study area primarily utilized water for human and cattle consumption, with limited agricultural activities Consequently, local expertise was found to be inadequate Although advanced remote sensing techniques such as TRMM and SRTM were employed, there is a pressing need for enhanced training and ongoing updates of equipment and imagery to improve project outcomes.

Implementation & Management Arrangements

The project's execution modalities were well-structured, effectively connecting Cairo University’s academic sector with applied research institutes like the NWRC, which oversees field studies in the MWRI This collaboration fostered a strong link between scientific researchers and field specialists, embodying a commendable concept for project implementation.

The project's steering committee, meeting biannually, kept all stakeholders updated on progress and established strategies aligned with project objectives They monitored implementation and made necessary adjustments to policies and strategies Although the inclusion of representatives from neighboring countries in the committee was a beneficial idea, it was ultimately not put into practice.

Establishing a Project Management Unit (PMU) comprising team leaders and a project manager was an effective strategy for overseeing technical, operational, and administrative aspects This unit aimed to enhance the sharing and transfer of technology between Cairo University and the NWRC Overall, the proposed organizational structure was suitable, provided that all activities proceeded as intended and that the responsibilities assigned to various partners were diligently executed.

The project faced challenges in coordinating diverse partners due to differing backgrounds and expectations However, the UNDP/GEF local office effectively managed this coordination, earning appreciation from partners through interviews The Country Office played a crucial role in the steering committee and Project Management Unit, evaluating monthly progress and annual reports while overseeing project implementation Additionally, the UNDP country office was instrumental in selecting the Project Manager and ensuring the efficient use of UNDP-GEF resources.

Concerns have arisen regarding the nomination of steering committee members, particularly from partner institutes and the groundwater sector within the ministry This situation highlights potential challenges in maintaining project continuity, especially if a member is unable to attend meetings or is reassigned, as evidenced by the recent rapid turnover in the director position of the groundwater sector.

There were some changes in activities and work plan from the project document; The following activities have not been implemented;

- Soil samples to obtain the average chloride concentration of the soil water.

- Compute recharge rate using the chloride mass balance

- Infiltration test to estimate recharge.

- Set up network of rain gauges (only one has been installed).

- Drill only two wells ( the inception report suggest from 2 to 5 wells ).

Areas of corrective actions

Corrective actions can be planned to improve the following areas:

To ensure the successful completion of the project objectives and to incorporate the recommended corrective actions outlined in this report, it is advisable to extend the project timeline to the first quarter of 2007 This extension takes into account the necessary tasks to be completed and the positive accomplishments already achieved.

 Full commitments and cooperation of different partners There was some lack of cooperation between different partners.

As the project closure nears, it is crucial to activate regular meetings for the steering committee every four months and increase the frequency of PMU meetings This will facilitate the acceleration of remaining activities, including well drilling, installation of rain gauges, conducting pumping tests to estimate aquifer characteristics, and validating the groundwater model.

Effective information circulation is crucial for the success of project activities, ensuring that all stakeholders, groups, and personnel are informed There has been a noticeable gap in communication among different groups involved in the project, particularly across various studied areas such as Wadi Dara and Qena Asyuti To improve the exchange of ideas and experiences, it is recommended to organize small seminars where working groups can present their findings and discuss challenges faced, especially since these areas share similarities and a lack of data and information.

 Interaction, communication and technical expertise exchange need to be strengthened and enhanced between the IC and the NWRC.

 If budget permits, at least two wells need to be drilled in the eastern desert to provide additional data and verify the developed models.

 Geophysical investigation needs to be expanded to provide regional scope for the eastern desert project.

 The project needs to accomplish the environmental impact assessment for the studied area.

 Relocate the laboratory for hydrologic modeling at Cairo University (CU) to the Faculty of Engineering to improve utilization and accessibility to the lab.

To enhance project outcomes, it is essential to increase the frequency of meetings and workshops among partners involved in the initiative This collaborative approach will help refine ongoing work and ensure the successful completion of outstanding tasks Additionally, inviting project steering committee members to these meetings will provide valuable periodic evaluations and guidance.

 Involvement of local communities and ministry of agriculture in defining alternative development scenarios by incorporating them in the steering committee.

Defining the participant profile and selection criteria for workshops is crucial, ensuring candidates possess similar levels of knowledge and experience Additionally, providing participants with adequate time to prepare themselves before the training workshop is essential for maximizing their learning potential.

Areas of Potential success

The evaluation of groundwater potential in the eastern desert demonstrates that the selected techniques are effective, even with limited data This project offers a replicable approach that can be utilized in other arid and remote areas where field data is scarce or unavailable.

The project equips the Government of Egypt with essential tools to assess groundwater potential, thereby alleviating pressure on surface water resources Egypt faces significant challenges, including unsustainable government subsidies, declining water availability per capita and per acre due to population growth, and worsening water quality from salinity, pollution, and inadequate rural sanitation The water policy focuses on evaluating the current water resources, which consist of 55.5 billion cubic meters from the Nile River and an additional 9 billion cubic meters from anticipated projects, along with the potential groundwater resources in the Eastern Desert This initiative aids the government in determining the groundwater extraction potential in this region.

The project is centered on strategic communities in the eastern desert of Upper Egypt, where it evaluates the potential of water resources in neglected areas By focusing on these limited farming communities, the initiative aims to alleviate poverty and foster development, ultimately benefiting those who have been underserved for decades.

The project has surpassed its initial target for training courses, with both repeated and new courses added This expansion signifies a commitment to equipping junior professional engineers with specialized skills in project techniques As a result, there is significant potential for enhancing the capacity of young staff within research institutions.

The project aims to establish a model that effectively connects the academic sector with field work institutions through targeted research initiatives This collaboration between the MWRI research unit, represented by NWRC, and CU/IC is a valuable experience that enhances the integration of academic insights with practical field data NWRC's deep understanding of existing field data, combined with CU/IC's advanced data enhancement capabilities, is crucial for the successful execution of the research work This partnership is expected to significantly benefit the MWRI Groundwater Sector.

The evaluation confirms that the project aligns with UNDP/GEF priorities, specifically through its relevance to 15 operational programs (OPs) that GEF utilizes for grants Among these, eleven target GEF's core areas: four in biodiversity, four in climate change, and three in international waters Notably, Operational Program Number 9 emphasizes integrated management of land and water in transboundary water bodies, which is directly impacted by this project The project's outcomes are also applicable to other arid regions, enhancing its significance and potential for broader implementation.

- Both parties, Cairo University and NWRC are now more familiars and well prepared to collaborate and implement new development projects.

The successful capacity building of approximately 100 young staff members in both institutions has equipped them with advanced technological skills, including remote sensing, GIS usage, and isotope geochemistry modeling.

General

The project addresses Egypt's development priorities amidst a rapidly growing population, tackling significant challenges such as unsustainable government subsidies, decreasing water availability per capita and per acre, and deteriorating water quality due to salinity, pollution, and inadequate rural sanitation The water policy is designed to assess the current situation and develop effective strategies for sustainable water management.

Egypt's water resources encompass an annual supply of 55.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) from the Nile River, with an additional potential of 9 bcm from anticipated projects This initiative has supported the government in assessing the current groundwater extraction capabilities in the Eastern Desert, highlighting the importance of both surface and groundwater resources for sustainable management.

The project evaluated the water resource potential in long-neglected farming communities, aiming to alleviate poverty and improve living conditions for those who would benefit the most.

 The project exceeded the number of training courses that was agreed upon during the period of the project Some courses were repeated and additional courses were introduced

 The website constructed by the Michigan University for this project was innovative, informative and represented a valuable information resource.

The project initiative effectively bridges the academic sector with field work institutions, showcasing a successful collaboration between the MWRI research unit, represented by NWRC, and CU/IC This partnership was crucial for executing various research tasks, as NWRC's familiarity with existing field data complemented CU/IC's advanced data enhancement techniques Ultimately, NWRC outlined clear expectations for the MWRI Groundwater Sector regarding the project's outcomes, highlighting the significance of this collaborative effort.

In total, six presentations have been delivered, including three workshops organized by CEDARE Notably, one talk took place at a GEF-organized water conference in Salvador, Brazil Additionally, a presentation was made in September 2005 at a UNESCO and GEF-STAP conference on Aquifer Recharge Management in New Delhi Looking ahead, another talk is scheduled for the 4th World Water Forum in Mexico.

 The role of surface/groundwater modeling in groundwater assessment was crucial in the project phases.

The project's financial management was effectively controlled, utilizing a "payment upon delivery" system for completed tasks This approach helps prevent unnecessary or unsatisfactory expenditures.

 The project developed technical approach for groundwater water assessment in

Impacts Beyond the Direct Beneficiaries

An assessment of the water resources in the Eastern Desert is crucial to prevent environmental degradation caused by the overexploitation of surface and groundwater This evaluation aims to mitigate negative impacts from various users, particularly the private sector, ensuring sustainable management of these vital resources.

 More attention is given to the water resources in Wadi systems as a potential renewable water resource for developing arid areas.

 The transfer of new cost effective technologies used in assessing and evaluating water resources, such as new remote sensing technique ( SRTM,

The integration of TRMM, GIS, isotopes, and modeling techniques offers significant advantages for hydrogeological investigations, particularly in developing countries and arid regions where access to essential data sets is often challenging or insufficient.

 The involvement of partners from developed country, as a main partner, is very adequate for ensuring and accelerating transfer of know how and new technology.

 An integrated and sustainable development plan, including new water strategy for the Eastern desert is proposed.

Water resource development in the Eastern Desert, long overlooked, is now a key focus in the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation's working plan This commitment was highlighted by the Minister's speech at a December 2005 workshop, where he emphasized the ministry's intention to leverage project findings to enhance development in the region.

The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation is enhancing its efforts to monitor both surface and groundwater by implementing groundwater level assessments and installing rainfall precipitation and runoff gauges This proactive approach aims to regulate the use of groundwater resources in the region, ensuring the preservation of both quality and quantity.

 The local community in Eastern desert that has been neglected for decades will benefit the most from outputs of this project.

The findings of this project will benefit regional and international communities interested in wadi systems By leveraging the Arab wadi hydrology network, supported by UNESCO, the Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD), and the Arab League Educational, Cultural, and Scientific Organization (ALECSO), the project results can be effectively disseminated throughout the Arab region and internationally via the G-Wadi network, also sponsored by UNESCO.

The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) has demonstrated a strong commitment to implementing the project's outputs and recommendations, as evidenced during the workshop held on December 11-12, 2005 This workshop was chaired by the Minister, the President of Cairo University, and a representative from UNDP, highlighting the collaborative efforts to advance the project's goals.

Recommendations

This review's recommendations are influenced by the project's remaining budget and time limitations For effective planning and to propose suitable action plans, the recommendations are categorized into three distinct groups.

The general recommendations should be considered for the short/long term of the project and after the project completion.

The recommendations for immediate implementation should be considered in the very near future in order for them to be feasibly implemented before the end of the project.

 Recommendations to be implemented before project closure

These recommendations should be implemented before the end of the project depending on budget and time practicality.

General Recommendations

1 Publicize the project as a lead example

This project serves as a leading example for arid regions by effectively utilizing targeted research and scientific tools alongside foundational knowledge to promote sustainable development.

2 Encourage similar/future target research

The Global Environment Facility (GEF) should promote targeted research projects that highlight the importance of effective groundwater management By showcasing these projects, GEF can demonstrate how improved groundwater practices can alleviate pressure on surface water resources.

3 Utilize geo-referenced Landsat and similar techniques

Utilization of geo-referenced Landsat Thematic Mapper data to identify surface runoff and recharge rates should be utilized to compensate for lack of field data.

4 Utilize geochemistry and isotope analysis

Utilization of geochemistry and isotopic analysis for groundwater potential in the eastern desert should be further utilized in similar arid lands.

5 Government of Egypt should utilize the project output

The Government of Egypt should utilize the outcome of this project in agricultural, urban, tourism and industrial development planning in the Eastern desert.

6 Follow up the implementation of project results

The steering committee should be engaged in the ongoing monitoring and follow-up of project results and recommendations beyond the project's conclusion This committee may function as a consultative body, with GEF/UNDP potentially offering financial support even after the GEF funding phase-out Additionally, the initiative to convene the committee every four months for follow-up meetings can help ensure the sustainability of the project's outcomes.

Recommendations for Immediate Implementation

1 Extend the project to first quarter of 2007

To ensure the successful completion of the project objectives and to build on the positive achievements already made, it is advisable to extend the project timeline to the first quarter of 2007.

2 Strengthen interaction and communication between IC, CU and NWRC

Interaction, communication and technical expertise exchange need to be strengthened and enhanced between the IC, the CU and the NWRC.

If budget permits, at least two wells need to be drilled in the eastern desert to provide additional data and verify the developed models.

Geophysical investigation needs to be expanded to provide regional scope for the eastern desert project.

The project needs to accomplish the environmental impact assessment for the studied area.

6 Facilitate access to activate the utilization of the laboratory for hydrologic modeling

Relocate the laboratory for hydrologic modeling at Cairo University (CU) to the Faculty of Engineering to improve utilization and accessibility to the lab.

To enhance project outcomes, it is essential to increase meetings and workshops among partners to refine ongoing work and ensure the successful completion of remaining tasks In addition, involving project steering committee members in these meetings can provide valuable periodic evaluations and guidance.

To enhance the effectiveness of future training workshops, it is essential to involve more participants from the groundwater sector of the ministry or the NWRC, as they are the primary beneficiaries of the project and will be responsible for implementing its recommendations and outcomes.

To alleviate the pressure on non-renewable Nubian fresh groundwater, it is essential to explore the use of brackish water from local aquifers in Wadi systems for agriculture This can be achieved by studying and introducing new crop varieties that are salt-tolerant and have high productivity Therefore, it is recommended to involve the Ministry of Agriculture in the project steering committee.

Organizing monthly or bi-monthly seminars for groups involved in different watersheds to present their findings and share ideas is essential This collaborative approach fosters information exchange and enhances communication among stakeholders.

Recommendations for implementation before project closure

1 Propagate the results of the project

The results of this project in the eastern desert should be further utilized in Egypt and other countries by future related projects.

2 Assess potential investment in the studies area

The project should specifically provide an assessment for investment potential in the area (mainly for urban/agricultural/other uses).

The project needs to address the socio-economic impact of the proposed development (if any) However, this recommendation may not be feasible if not supported under GEF eligible funding.

4 Publicize the finding in local media

The project should utilize the local media to publicize the findings and recommendations of the project.

5 Draft strategic water plan for the area

A strategic plan for the exploitation of available water resources should be drafted.

6 Document scenarios and alternatives for development

Develop a comprehensive development plan, such as a preliminary master plan, that presents alternative scenarios for the study area, emphasizing the integrated management and utilization of both surface and groundwater This plan must consider the economic implications of water delivery while establishing the extraction rates and assessing the available water resources.

A regional workshop is essential to be organized 2-3 months prior to the project's conclusion This event should not only include project partners but also engage key stakeholders such as local communities, the Ministry of Agriculture, investors, media representatives, and relevant organizations from neighboring countries, as well as regional and international entities.

8 Develop some guidelines and directives for the use of different techniques

Compile the used techniques and provide systematic guidelines and directives to be implemented in future similar projects.

9 Conduct a socioeconomic assessment in the study area.

Consider organizing one or two workshops focused on modeling or other relevant domains Conduct a brief survey with participants from previous workshops to identify areas where they seek additional training to enhance their skills and performance.

11 A follow up arrangement for the implementation of the project recommendations should be settled

Lessons Learnt

This project provided several lessons to be learnt and further applied in current/future similar projects The lessons learnt from this project are classified in terms of:

Lessons learnt from technical approach should benefit researchers working on similar projects.

Lessons learnt from project management should benefit UNDP, GEF, governments and project managers working on similar projects

Lessons learnt from strategic planning should benefit governments and implementing agencies.

1 GIS and geo-referenced Landsat Thematic Mapper data can be used as initial estimates to identify surface runoff and recharge rates in the case of lack of field data.

2 The use of isotopic analysis to identify groundwater recharge source(s) and age proved to be very effective.

The technical procedures developed in this project can be utilized in various regions of Egypt and neighboring countries with comparable natural conditions, facilitating land reclamation planning while minimizing environmental, financial, and social impacts.

4 Integration of groundwater modeling with surface modeling if tested and proven to be accurate can be very effective to simulate groundwater scenarios in arid areas.

5 Utilization of Geostatistics (that was not used in this project) could have enhanced the extrapolation of limited data at the region.

6 Presence of environmental, social and financial consultants in similar projects may assist in the completion of an integrated development plan during the progress of the project.

1 Cooperation and coordination between different partners contributing to similar projects could become a bottle-neck and critical factor for the successful completion of the objectives.

2 Technical competence of partners and ease of exchange/enhancement of

3 In terms of financial project management, the implementation of “payment upon delivery” concept between various partners avoids un- required/unsatisfactory spending.

To enhance the effectiveness of the training program, it is advisable to create a questionnaire for partner institutions to gather proposals on the program's content, duration, and delivery methods Given their practical experience, these institutions are well-equipped to identify the training needs of their personnel The insights gained from this assessment will enable a more tailored and beneficial training program.

Before launching any development project, it is essential to consult with key stakeholders and end users, even prior to the design phase Establishing mutual agreements that clearly define the roles and responsibilities of each partner will streamline project implementation and minimize delays in consultations This collaborative approach fosters a sense of ownership among all partners, enhancing their commitment to the project's success.

Establishing a partnership between academic researchers from Cairo University and the applied sector, represented by the Ministry and the NWRC, can be challenging However, this collaborative approach could serve as a model for future cooperation among various partners, both within the current project and in similar contexts, whether in Egypt or beyond.

7 There is no unique mechanism for distilling and incorporating lessons learnt, but the most effective one is the participatory approach.

Strategic Planning

The project demonstrated that even in hyper-arid regions, there is significant potential for water resource development By utilizing these resources rationally, it can play a crucial role in alleviating poverty in local communities and fostering the growth of new agricultural areas beyond the Nile Delta and Nile River valley.

2 Target research can benefit strategic development planning especially in complicated and remote areas.

3 The Eastern desert is a potential region for future development and investment Carefully studied planning proved to be essential for sustainable development in this region and similar locations.

TOR

For Developing Renewable Groundwater Resources in

Arid Lands, A Pilot Case- the Eastern Desert of Egypt

The Eastern Desert project is a targeted research project that is funded through the Global Environmental Facility (GEF), implemented through the United Nations

Cairo University in Egypt is implementing a Development Programme designed to create a replicable model that showcases various methods for integrating renewable groundwater resources from watersheds into the national water budget, specifically targeting arid regions.

The project aims to assess alternative water resources from sporadic precipitation in arid and semi-arid regions, focusing on Egypt's Eastern Desert as a pilot site It employs advanced techniques such as satellite image analysis, digital elevation data, geochemical and isotopic assessments, and groundwater modeling Key tasks include analyzing rainfall patterns, predicting design storms, and conducting geochemical analyses of groundwater samples for renewability Additionally, soil sampling, infiltration tests, and remote sensing will create detailed mosaics of geology, land use, and elevation across the Eastern Desert The project also involves surface water modeling for major wadies, calculating recharge for quaternary basins, performing geophysical tests, and exploring various development scenarios.

The project aims to establish procedures for accurately estimating groundwater resources, including their distribution, quantity, and development potential These methods will be applicable in Egypt and neighboring countries, facilitating effective water management planning while minimizing environmental, financial, and social risks Ultimately, the initiative supports the Egyptian Government in fulfilling national objectives to address rising water demand and contributes valuable insights to national water resource management strategies and plans.

UNDP has launched a midterm evaluation to assess the project's achievements against its original objectives, offering insights to donors, government, and project partners regarding impact and sustainability This evaluation will pinpoint factors that have either supported or hindered the achievement of these objectives, ultimately yielding recommendations and lessons learned to guide the reorientation and reprioritization of project activities and management strategies as necessary.

The evaluations will specifically asses:

The project design aligns with Egypt's development priorities, UNDP practice areas, and GEF themes, addressing the specific needs of beneficiaries It includes a thorough review of the project concept and design, ensuring a strategic approach to tackle the identified challenges effectively.

 Project Impact: assessment of project achievements to date against the original objectives, outputs and activities using both process oriented and technical environmental indicators.

 Project Implementation: project management arrangements, quality and timeliness of output and activities, financial situation including effectiveness, partner cooperation, capacity building etc.

The assessment should also be extended to cover the logical framework matrix using appropriate indicators for the project.

3 Products Expected from the Evaluation

Based on the above points on project design, impact and implementation, the evaluation mission should prepare a comprehensive report according to the attached outline in Annex I The report should:

 Assess the extent to which the project objectives have been met and where gaps are evident identifying causes of slow progress, if any, and suggesting remedial measures);

 Document lessons learned from the project thus far discussing elements that have and/or have not worked well and discussing re-prioritization of scheduled activities (if needed);

 Provide recommendations to strengthen project performance in terms of effectiveness, efficiency, impact, implementation, execution and sustainability of the project.

The evaluation will be based on information obtained from reviewing documents such as the project document, project brief, quarterly progress reports, Annual Project

The report (APR) and minutes from the Tripartite Review, along with records from relevant meetings, are essential for the mission It is crucial to incorporate insights obtained from field visits and interviews with target beneficiaries and project staff, which should include government officials, university professors, and consultants Notably, interviews should encompass representatives from Cairo University and the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (National Water Research).

The UNDP country office, in collaboration with UNDP-GEF, will contract the consultant(s) and facilitate all necessary site visits and meetings in Egypt as outlined in the Terms of Reference (ToR) The Project Management Unit will coordinate logistics for the mission, including hotel reservations and transportation Throughout the mission, the consultant will maintain close communication with the UNDP Resident Representative, relevant government agencies, and members of both international and national expert teams, as well as the Project Management Unit.

The mission's findings will be shared in a seminar with all stakeholders, and a draft final report must be submitted in three hard copies and one electronic copy to the UNDP-Cairo Office, the UNDP-GEF Coordinator for the Arab States, and the UNDP-GEF Principal Technical Advisor on International Waters within two weeks of the mission's conclusion Following feedback from Cairo and New York, the consultant(s) will have two weeks to address comments and submit a final report, which should include three hard copies and one electronic copy.

6 REQUIREMENTS OF THE EVALUATION TEAM:

The Consultant must be an internationally recognized water quality specialist with an advanced degree in engineering or water science and 10-15 years of relevant experience in the groundwater sector, particularly in developing countries Familiarity with UNDP’s procedures is advantageous, along with extensive international experience in project formulation, execution, and evaluation Strong technical writing and analytical skills are essential, as well as expertise in results-based monitoring and evaluation techniques Additionally, the Consultant should have a solid understanding of water resources development in Egypt, particularly groundwater, and maintain strong connections within the water sector Fluency in both English and Arabic is required.

The consultancy will span a total of 10 days, during which the consultant will dedicate 4 days in Cairo to meet and interview key project partners Additionally, the consultant will have 6 days to review supporting documents and prepare the evaluation report.

 What are the context and purpose of the evaluation?

 What are the main conclusions, recommendations and lessons learnt?

 Whose decision was it to evaluate the project?

 What is the purpose of the evaluation?

 What products are expected from the evaluation?

 How will the evaluation results be used?

 What are the key issues addressed by the evaluation?

 What was the methodology used for the evaluation?

 What is the structure of the content of the evaluation report?

 When did the project start and what is its duration? What are the problems the project seeks to address?

 What are the immediate and development objectives of the project?

 Who are the main stakeholders?

 Did the project document clearly define: problem to be addressed- project approach and strategy- implementation and management arrangements - linkages among objectives, inputs, activities, outputs and expected outcomes and impact?

 Are the immediate objectives and outputs properly stated, significant, realistic and verifiable?

 How relevant is the project to: development priorities of Egypt and UNDP thematic areas (i.e., poverty eradication and sustainable development - environmental and natural resource sustainability, millennium development goals)

 Was the project prepared in a participatory manner?

- How well did the project use its resources to produce target outputs?

- To what extent are local expertise (by gender) and indigenous technologies and resources used?

- What is the project status with respect to target outputs in terms of quantity, quality and timeliness? What factors impeded or facilitated the production of such outputs?

- How useful are the outputs to the needs of the direct beneficiaries? Is there a general acceptance of the outputs by these beneficiaries?

The outputs of the project play a crucial role in achieving its immediate objectives Key indicators that demonstrate this contribution include measurable progress towards goals and stakeholder feedback It is essential to assess whether the existing monitoring and evaluation indicators are effective or if there is a need for their enhancement to better align with the project's aims.

- Is the project expected to induce an impact on legislations, regulations and national policies in the water sector in Egypt?

- Is the proposed technology cost-effective for Egyptian conditions?

 Implementation and Management Arrangements of the project:

- How appropriate are the execution and implementation modalities?

- How well is the project management, its organizational setup, rules and procedures for its functioning, decision-making process, compliance with decisions adopted for implementation?

- How adequate are monitoring and reporting mechanisms?

- How adequate is the support provided by the UNDP country office?

- Do stakeholders, particularly the direct beneficiaries, participate in the management of the project? If yes, what are the nature and extent of their participation, by gender?

- What is the relevance of the quantity and quality of purchased equipment to the project needs?

- Are there any major changes in activities or workplan from the project document occurred? If yes, what are the reasons for the changes?

- What problems in project implementation need to be resolved?

- What are the flaws, if any, in design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation?

- Are there any early indications of potential success?

 Given the indicators established by the project and/or recommended by the evaluation team :

The project has significantly enhanced the capacity of direct beneficiaries by fostering individual learning and facilitating the improvement of organizational structures and interrelationships Through targeted training and support, participants have developed essential skills that enable them to adapt effectively to changing environments Additionally, the initiative has strengthened collaboration among teams, leading to more efficient workflows and better communication within the organization Overall, these advancements empower beneficiaries to perform their tasks more effectively in a dynamic landscape.

- What are the likely impacts of the project beyond the direct beneficiaries?

- Are there any signs of potential contribution to enabling environment or to a broader development context (ie Institutional, socio-political, economic and environmental)?

- Are the project results systematically disseminated?

 What factors affect the implementation of the project?

- Is there adequate government commitment to the project?

- Do the stakeholders have a sense of ownership to the project?

- Have a mechanism been put in place to ensure the sustainability of the project results?

 What corrective actions are recommended for the design, implementation,

 What actions are recommended to follow-up or reinforce initial benefits from the project and ensure replicability?

 Are there any necessary modifications to the project document to be considered?

 What are actions needed to ensure sustainability of the project after phase out of the GEF funds?

 What are the main lessons that can be drawn from the project experience that may have generic application?

 What are the best and worst practices in formulating, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating a capacity development project?

 What is the mechanism for distilling and incorporating lessons learnt?

List of Interviewee

 Dr Ahmad Wagdi, PM, Cairo University

 Dr Mohamed Bayoumi, Programme Specialist, UNDP/GEF Egypt.

 Dr Mohamed Sultan, IC, Head of Geosciences Department Western Michigan University

 Dr Fatma Abdel–Rahman Attiah, Professor, Ex-Head of Water Sector, MWRI

 Dr Ahmed Rashad Khater, Director Groundwater Research Institute (RIGW)

 Dr Mohamed Abdel–Motaleb, Director Water Resources Research Institute (WRRI)

 Dr Khaled Abu-Zeid, Professor, Steering Committee Member (CEDARE)

 Nahed Mohamed Khalil, Head , Groundwater Sector, MWRI

 Dr Akram Fekry, Head of Technical Office, RIGW

 Dr Abdo Ismail, Hydrogeology, RIGW

 Dr Mohamed Sonbol, Associate Professor, WRRI

 Dr.Taher Mohamed Hassan, Professor, RIGW

 Eng Shayma El Sayed, Engineer, Groundwater Sector