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Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report - Q3 2022 - Shared by WorldLine Technology
Q3 2022 www.fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Servic Services es Report Includes 10-year forecasts to 2031 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Contents Key View Banking Industry Risk Indicator Banking Industry Risk Indicator Scores .11 SWOT 12 Banking & Financial Services SWOT 12 Banking 13 Banking Snapshot 13 Downside Risks To Financial Stability Remain Elevated In Vietnam 14 Forecast Tables 17 Competitive Landscape 19 Regulatory Environment 24 Insurance 25 Insurance Snapshot 25 Competitive Landscape 27 Regulatory Environment 31 Asset Management .32 Asset Management Snapshot .32 Competitive Landscape 33 Regulatory Environment 35 Stock Exchanges 36 Stock Exchanges Snapshot 36 Competitive Landscape 37 Regulatory Environment 39 Macroeconomic Overview 41 Vietnam To See Growth Accelerate In 2022 But Headwinds Are Rising 41 Macroeconomic Forecasts .45 © 20 2022 22 Fit Fitch ch Solutions Gr Group oup Limit Limited ed All rights rreserv eserved ed All information, analysis, forecasts and data provided by Fitch Solutions Group Limited is for the exclusive use of subscribing persons or organisations (including those using the service on a trial basis) All such content is copyrighted in the name of Fitch Solutions Group Limited and as such no part of this content may be reproduced, repackaged, copied or redistributed without the express consent of Fitch Solutions Group Limited All content, including forecasts, analysis and opinion, has been based on information and sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing Fitch Solutions Group Limited makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from opinion, errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the content This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 (‘FSG’) FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc (‘Fitch Ratings’) FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings Copyright © 2022 Fitch Solutions Group Limited THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Household Income Forecasts .47 Vietnam Demographic Outlook 49 Banking & Financial Services Methodology 52 Banking Industry Risk Indicator Methodology 53 THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Key View Key View: Vietnam's banking and financial services industry retains scope for growth over the long term, driven by economic growth averaging around 6.0% per annum through to 2031, which will support rising incomes and expand the country's alreadygrowing middle class The broadly stable Vietnam government is open to cooperating with the rest of the Asian region, a stance that will benefit the adoption of new technologies and best practice in the industry Once the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have abated, the government is expected to begin reducing state ownership in the sector and move forward with the adoption of policies to boost both private sector and foreign involvement in local capital markets Vietnam’s banking sector assets are not as concentrated as in some developing countries but the state has a large role in the sector Although banks been slow to adopt Basel standards for capital adequacy, in recent years they have made strides in reducing nonperforming loans and aligning loan growth with increases in deposits We also note that four banks, all of which are at least partly state owned, continue to dominate Vietnam’s banking sector Digital services are gaining traction among the large proportion of the population that is unbanked, and green lending is also on the rise Vietnam's insurance market has enormous growth potential given the country's large population and a low rate of penetration There are a number of structural factors in place that are supportive of continued rapid growth of the dominant life segment, including a young population, urbanisation, an expanding middle class, the absence of a comprehensive social security system, high savings rates among households that can afford to, and innovation by multinational life insurance companies who consider Vietnam's market to be a growth opportunity The smaller non-life segment also maintains development prospects, although unlike the life segment, the already competitive landscape is dominated by indigenous insurers, many of which have traditionally been linked with large SOEs We also note that the emergence of new insurtech platforms across both segments will make it easy for firsttime customers to buy insurance and encourage innovations in the types of coverage that individuals and businesses can afford Vietnam's asset management industry remains small, largely due to the lack of institutional investors that drive business in most other countries In 2022, we estimate that the average disposable income of Vietnamese households stood at USD5,500, some way below the USD10,000, which is considered the point at which asset management services targeted at individuals becomes attractive and viable By 2026, however, we currently forecast some 19.2% of households will surpass that USD10,000 mark, a view that provides strong potential for the expansion of the asset management sector in Vietnam The development of Vietnam's stock market has entered a new phase The government is in the process of re-organising the country's two exchanges under a single entity so that one exchange focuses on stocks and the other on bonds and other products There is ongoing cooperation between Vietnam, Japan and ASEAN to help integrate Vietnam’s stock market into the broader Asian financial sector The Vietnamese stock market comprises two trading entities, and remains dominated by domestic investors Foreign investment continues to be limited due to the relatively low liquidity of the markets, in addition to Vietnam's status as a frontier rather than an emerging market In its economic restructuring plan for 2021-2025, the Ministry of Planning and Investment set out goals for the stock market that are designed to make Vietnam’s stock exchanges competitive with those of other ASEAN members THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Upbeat Long-Term Outlook For Financial Services Amid Favourable Demographics Vietnam - Working Age Population, 15-64, '000 e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: UN, Fitch Solutions Latest Trends And Developments • We maintain our forecast for bank credit growth of 15.0% in 2022, driven by a rebound in economic growth However, national indebtedness continues to rise and the relatively under-capitalised banking sector remains vulnerable to an increase in nonperforming loans The economic effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict pose an additional downside risk • The value of total insurance premiums written is forecast to rise by 13.0% in 2022, a slight uptick from our previous forecast (12.9%) Growth is forecast to average just over 12.3% per annum through 2026 across in the life segment and 11.5% in the nonlife lines • The total value of assets under management (AuM) by fund management companies in Vietnam reached approximately VND570.0trn (USD24.7bn) in 2021 This represents growth of 31% y-o-y The regulator reported that from 2015 to the end of 2021, AuM grew by an average of 15-25% per annum • Buy trades made by foreign investors on both of Vietnam’s main stock exchanges totalled VND40.9bn in March 2022, while sales hit VND44.8bn, resulting in a net loss of VND3.9bn FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS (2020-2025) Indicator Finance nominal GVA, USDbn Finance USD nominal growth, % y-o-y Finance nominal GVA, VNDbn Finance VND nominal GVA growth, % y-o-y Finance nominal GVA, % total GVA 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 13.91 20.06 22.35 24.66 26.94 29.41 -0.1 44.3 11.4 10.3 9.3 9.1 322,739.53 464,594.14 514,154.91 569,677.35 625,930.28 690,008.23 0.6 44.0 10.7 10.8 9.9 10.2 5.73 6.29 6.29 6.32 6.33 6.33 e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: National Statistics Office, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 FINANCIAL SERVICES FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2026-2031) Indicator 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f 2031f Finance nominal GVA, USDbn 31.89 34.53 37.38 40.46 43.80 47.45 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.3 755,673.25 826,472.54 903,493.48 987,755.56 1,080,113.71 1,181,698.76 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.4 6.32 6.30 6.27 6.24 6.22 6.19 Finance USD nominal growth, % y-o-y Finance nominal GVA, VNDbn Finance VND nominal GVA growth, % y-o-y Finance nominal GVA, % total GVA f = Fitch Solutions forecast Source: National Statistics Office, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Banking Industry Risk Indicator Banking Industry Risk Indicator Note: Scores out of 100; higher scores imply lower risk Source: Fitch Solutions Key View: Vietnam's Banking Industry Risk Indicator (BIRI) score in Q122 is 35.48, indicating moderately high banking sector risk relative to the other markets we assess We rank each market out of 122, where first is lowest risk and 122nd is highest risk Vietnam is in 88th position THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 BIRI Score Falling Steadily Vietnam – BIRI Scores & Historical BIRI Average Note: Scores out of 100; higher scores imply lower risk Source: Fitch Solutions BIRI Overview: Vietnam’s BIRI score has been on a broad downward trend, falling from 38.05 in Q121 to 35.48 in Q122, implying higher risks The market's scores for the International Linkages and Economic Volatility metrics are high, but its Government Finance and Financial Component scores remain low Vietnam ranks 88th of the 122 markets captured in our analysis Financial: The Financial component score fell from 33.67 in Q121 to 30.09 in Q122, implying higher risk Its capital buffers have been trending downwards, while underlying asset quality has been falling, despite headline non-performing loan figures holding up Economic Volatility Has Led To Higher Risks Vietnam - BIRI Component Scores Note: Scores out of 100; higher scores imply lower risk Source: Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Government Finance: Vietnam’s Government Finance score fell from 45.40 in Q121 to 41.92 in Q122, implying higher risk In Q122, the Government Debt (% of GDP) component stood at 41.38%, up from 39.22% in Q121 Government Interest Payments (% of revenue) also remained high at 10.09% in Q122 However, the Government Balance (% of GDP) component recorded a smaller deficit of 7.32% in Q122, compared to 7.58% in Q121 Regulatory Quality & Environment: Vietnam’s Regulatory Quality & Environment score has generally been rising over the past few years, with the score standing at 46.49 in Q122 The country's business environment has continued to improve due to economic reforms adopted by Vietnamese authorities since 2016, which were aimed at making the market more attractive to foreign direct investment Living Standard: Vietnam's Living Standard component score rose to 54.17 in Q122 from 52.74 in Q121, implying lower risk Continued rises in this score are the result of strong economic growth in Vietnam, which raised GDP At PPP, USD Per Capita to 9,442 in Q122 International Linkages: Vietnam’s International Linkages component score fell to 68.52 in Q122 from 69.60 in Q121, implying higher risk This was driven by a fall in the Current Account Balance (% of GDP) component, from 5.68% in Q121 to 2.95% in Q122 However, Gross External Debt (% of GDP) fell from 37.68% to 33.08% over the same period Economic Volatility: The Economic Volatility score fell from 66.64 in Q121 to 62.39 in Q122, implying higher risk The fall reflects rising volatility in both economic growth and inflation in the country THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 10 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Macroeconomic Forecasts MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2021-2026) Indicator 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f Nominal GDP, USDbn 362.6 404.5 444.8 485.9 530.5 576.8 Nominal GDP, EURbn 306.6 358.0 383.5 404.9 431.3 465.2 2.6 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.5 6.1 GDP per capita, USD 3,694 4,087 4,461 4,839 5,247 5,667 GDP per capita, EUR 3,122 3,617 3,846 4,032 4,266 4,570 Population, mn 98.17 98.95 99.70 100.41 101.11 101.78 Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 1.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.5 Lending rate, %, ave 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Private final consumption, % of GDP 52.7 52.1 52.7 53.3 53.6 53.8 Private final consumption, real growth % y-o-y 1.8 5.5 8.0 7.5 7.2 6.5 Government final consumption, % of GDP 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 Government final consumption, real growth % y-o-y 5.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.8 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.7 21.0 4.0 8.0 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 Exchange rate VND/USD, ave 23,159.78 23,000.00 23,100.00 23,230.00 23,462.30 23,696.92 Exchange rate VND/EUR, ave 27,395.82 25,990.00 26,796.00 27,876.00 28,858.63 29,384.18 Goods and services exports, USDbn 345.7 402.4 474.0 537.5 605.3 681.6 Goods and services imports, USDbn 306.0 369.8 406.1 464.5 526.2 596.0 Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn 39.7 32.6 67.9 73.0 79.1 85.6 Balance of trade in goods and services, % of GDP 10.9 8.1 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.8 Current account balance, USDbn -3.7 -12.6 16.4 16.4 16.8 17.2 Current account balance, % of GDP -1.0 -3.1 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0 121.8 126.5 161.1 196.3 232.6 269.9 4.5 3.9 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.2 -25.3 -30.1 -31.5 -33.9 -36.2 -38.7 -7.0 -7.4 -7.1 -7.0 -6.8 -6.7 Real GDP growth, % y-o-y Fixed capital formation, % of GDP Fixed capital formation, real growth % y-o-y Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn Import cover, months Budget balance, USDbn Budget balance, % of GDP e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 45 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (VIETNAM 2027-2031) Indicator 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f 2031f Nominal GDP, USDbn 627.1 681.9 741.5 806.4 877.0 Nominal GDP, EURbn 501.7 545.5 593.2 645.1 701.6 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 GDP per capita, USD 6,122 6,617 7,155 7,741 8,379 GDP per capita, EUR 4,898 5,294 5,724 6,193 6,703 102.43 103.04 103.62 104.16 104.66 Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Lending rate, %, ave 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Private final consumption, % of GDP 54.0 54.2 54.4 54.6 54.8 Private final consumption, real growth % y-o-y 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 Government final consumption, % of GDP 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 Government final consumption, real growth % y-o-y 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.6 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Exchange rate VND/USD, ave 23,933.89 24,173.23 24,414.96 24,659.11 24,905.70 Exchange rate VND/EUR, ave 29,917.37 30,216.54 30,518.70 30,823.89 31,132.13 Goods and services exports, USDbn 774.3 874.3 989.0 1,123.6 1,271.1 Goods and services imports, USDbn 680.1 771.7 876.3 1,001.5 1,137.1 Balance of trade in goods and services, USDbn 94.2 102.6 112.7 122.1 134.0 Balance of trade in goods and services, % of GDP 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.1 15.3 Current account balance, USDbn 19.0 20.0 21.9 22.5 24.6 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.8 309.5 350.8 394.7 439.7 487.6 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 -41.3 -44.1 -47.1 -50.3 -53.7 -6.6 -6.5 -6.4 -6.2 -6.1 Real GDP growth, % y-o-y Population, mn Fixed capital formation, % of GDP Fixed capital formation, real growth % y-o-y Current account balance, % of GDP Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn Import cover, months Budget balance, USDbn Budget balance, % of GDP f = Fitch Solutions forecast Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 46 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Household Income Forecasts HOUSEHOLD INCOME DATA (VIETNAM 2020-2026) Indicator 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f Households, number 30,606,064 31,210,593 31,763,023 32,418,428 32,972,715 33,642,069 34,322,421 Households, % y-o-y 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 137,359,862 180,961,983 198,624,230 217,495,963 236,998,800 259,323,861 282,645,080 5,918 7,813 8,635 9,415 10,202 11,052 11,927 53,663,055 71,011,103 78,038,410 85,546,938 93,306,564 102,189,072 111,467,924 2,312 3,066 3,392 3,703 4,016 4,355 4,703 109,887,890 144,769,586 158,899,384 173,996,771 189,599,040 207,459,088 226,116,064 4,734 6,250 6,908 7,532 8,161 8,842 9,542 42,930,444 56,808,882 62,430,728 68,437,550 74,645,251 81,751,258 89,174,339 1,849 2,452 2,714 2,962 3,213 3,484 3,763 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 Average working adults per household Gross Income, per household, VND Gross Income, per household, USD Gross Income, per capita, VND Gross Income, per capita, USD Disposable Income, per household, VND Disposable Income, per household, USD Disposable Income, per capita, VND Disposable Income, per capita, USD Tax and social contributions, % of gross income Tax and social contributions, per 10,732,611.14 14,202,220.67 15,607,682.13 17,109,387.65 18,661,312.82 20,437,814.54 22,293,584.91 capita, VND Tax and social contributions, per 462.4 613.2 678.6 740.7 803.3 871.1 940.8 9,125.3 14,163.6 16,326.4 18,339.4 20,199.7 22,116.4 23,941.2 2,259.2 4,208.0 5,259.0 6,368.1 7,545.0 8,905.4 10,365.6 50.0 99.5 128.9 162.1 199.8 246.9 302.3 29.8 45.4 51.4 56.6 61.3 65.7 69.8 7.4 13.5 16.6 19.6 22.9 26.5 30.2 capita, USD Households '000 earning USD5,000+ Households '000 earning USD10,000+ Households '000 earning USD50,000+ Households earning USD5,000+, % total Households earning THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 47 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Indicator 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 USD10,000+, % total Households earning USD50,000+, % total e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 48 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Vietnam Demographic Outlook Demographic analysis is a key pillar of our macroeconomic and industry forecasting model The total population is a key variable in consumer demand, and an understanding of the demographic profile is essential to understanding issues ranging from future population trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2019, the change in the structure of the population between 2019 and 2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050 The tables show indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split and life expectancy Population Vietnam - Population, mn (1990-2050) e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions Population Pyramid Vietnam – 2019 Male vs Female Population, '000 (LHS) & 2019 vs 2050 Population, '000 (RHS) Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 49 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (VIETNAM 1990-2025) Indicator 1990 Population, % y-o-y 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f 1.11 0.93 1.01 1.05 0.91 0.69 Population, total, male, '000 33,653.3 39,570.5 41,531.5 43,746.4 46,197.5 48,598.3 50,471.2 Population, total, female, '000 34,335.6 40,339.9 42,301.1 44,221.3 46,479.6 48,740.3 50,635.6 Population, total, '000 67,988.9 79,910.4 83,832.7 87,967.7 92,677.1 97,338.6 101,106.8 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 Population ratio, male/female e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions KEY POPULATION RATIOS (VIETNAM 1990-2025) Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f 75.4 61.3 50.7 43.1 42.2 45.1 47.7 29,236.3 30,360.4 28,206.9 26,493.4 27,514.1 30,233.4 32,643.8 57.0 62.0 66.4 69.9 70.3 68.9 67.7 38,752.6 49,550.0 55,625.8 61,474.3 65,162.9 67,105.2 68,463.1 65.4 50.9 40.8 33.8 32.8 33.6 33.2 25,330.7 25,230.6 22,720.5 20,784.3 21,343.4 22,576.7 22,732.5 10.1 10.4 9.9 9.3 9.5 11.4 14.5 3,905.5 5,129.8 5,486.4 5,709.1 6,170.8 7,656.7 9,911.3 Dependent ratio, % of total working age Dependent population, total, '000 Active population, % of total population Active population, total, '000 Youth population, % of total working age Youth population, total, '000 Pensionable population, % of total working age Pensionable population, '000 e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions URBAN/RURAL POPULATION AND LIFE EXPECTANCY (VIETNAM 1990-2025) Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f Urban population, % of total 20.3 24.4 27.3 30.4 33.8 37.3 40.9 Rural population, % of total 79.7 75.6 72.7 69.6 66.2 62.7 59.1 Urban population, '000 13,772.5 19,477.4 22,870.4 26,757.1 31,333.2 36,346.2 41,361.8 Rural population, '000 54,216.4 60,433.0 60,962.3 61,210.5 61,343.9 60,992.4 59,745.0 Life expectancy at birth, male, years 66.0 68.4 69.7 70.7 71.0 71.4 72.1 Life expectancy at birth, female, years 75.1 77.7 78.4 78.9 79.2 79.6 80.1 Life expectancy at birth, average, years 70.6 73.0 74.1 74.8 75.1 75.5 76.1 e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (VIETNAM 1990-2025) Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f Population, 0-4 yrs, total, '000 9,142.0 7,190.8 6,697.0 7,210.3 7,642.8 7,892.5 7,374.4 Population, 5-9 yrs, total, '000 8,453.0 9,056.8 7,090.7 6,602.7 7,153.0 7,586.1 7,832.7 Population, 10-14 yrs, total, '000 7,735.7 8,983.1 8,932.8 6,971.3 6,547.6 7,098.2 7,525.3 Population, 15-19 yrs, total, '000 7,267.1 8,338.1 8,879.5 8,830.1 6,921.7 6,500.9 7,046.3 Population, 20-24 yrs, total, '000 6,567.2 7,573.3 8,194.4 8,712.9 8,718.2 6,820.2 6,391.3 Population, 25-29 yrs, total, '000 5,934.5 7,007.5 7,393.5 7,987.9 8,562.6 8,569.3 6,669.0 Population, 30-34 yrs, total, '000 5,071.1 6,295.7 6,866.3 7,220.2 7,865.4 8,437.0 8,435.6 Population, 35-39 yrs, total, '000 3,833.6 5,741.1 6,192.3 6,726.9 7,123.1 7,763.9 8,327.3 Population, 40-44 yrs, total, '000 2,440.0 4,928.2 5,657.1 6,098.0 6,640.3 7,033.8 7,668.6 Population, 45-49 yrs, total, '000 1,998.6 3,699.5 4,862.7 5,581.2 6,003.4 6,539.1 6,930.9 THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 50 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f Population, 50-54 yrs, total, '000 1,952.7 2,323.4 3,638.3 4,778.8 5,455.3 5,868.4 6,398.1 Population, 55-59 yrs, total, '000 2,031.0 1,867.7 2,217.3 3,483.6 4,591.1 5,241.6 5,644.3 Population, 60-64 yrs, total, '000 1,656.8 1,775.5 1,724.4 2,054.8 3,281.7 4,331.0 4,951.6 Population, 65-69 yrs, total, '000 1,401.8 1,756.6 1,599.4 1,556.5 1,882.0 3,011.7 3,986.8 Population, 70-74 yrs, total, '000 1,021.0 1,309.6 1,514.0 1,387.4 1,362.5 1,652.0 2,653.2 Population, 75-79 yrs, total, '000 746.9 972.4 1,062.1 1,241.9 1,143.5 1,126.5 1,373.8 Population, 80-84 yrs, total, '000 426.5 588.0 713.7 790.7 929.8 860.6 854.8 Population, 85-89 yrs, total, '000 221.6 329.3 370.8 459.6 513.5 609.2 569.6 Population, 90-94 yrs, total, '000 70.5 128.3 167.6 193.6 243.3 274.6 330.2 Population, 95-99 yrs, total, '000 15.4 39.2 48.5 65.4 76.9 98.2 112.4 Population, 100+ yrs, total, '000 1.9 6.3 10.4 14.0 19.3 23.8 30.6 e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % (VIETNAM 1990-2025) Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f Population, 0-4 yrs, % total 13.45 9.00 7.99 8.20 8.25 8.11 7.29 Population, 5-9 yrs, % total 12.43 11.33 8.46 7.51 7.72 7.79 7.75 Population, 10-14 yrs, % total 11.38 11.24 10.66 7.92 7.06 7.29 7.44 Population, 15-19 yrs, % total 10.69 10.43 10.59 10.04 7.47 6.68 6.97 Population, 20-24 yrs, % total 9.66 9.48 9.77 9.90 9.41 7.01 6.32 Population, 25-29 yrs, % total 8.73 8.77 8.82 9.08 9.24 8.80 6.60 Population, 30-34 yrs, % total 7.46 7.88 8.19 8.21 8.49 8.67 8.34 Population, 35-39 yrs, % total 5.64 7.18 7.39 7.65 7.69 7.98 8.24 Population, 40-44 yrs, % total 3.59 6.17 6.75 6.93 7.17 7.23 7.58 Population, 45-49 yrs, % total 2.94 4.63 5.80 6.34 6.48 6.72 6.85 Population, 50-54 yrs, % total 2.87 2.91 4.34 5.43 5.89 6.03 6.33 Population, 55-59 yrs, % total 2.99 2.34 2.64 3.96 4.95 5.38 5.58 Population, 60-64 yrs, % total 2.44 2.22 2.06 2.34 3.54 4.45 4.90 Population, 65-69 yrs, % total 2.06 2.20 1.91 1.77 2.03 3.09 3.94 Population, 70-74 yrs, % total 1.50 1.64 1.81 1.58 1.47 1.70 2.62 Population, 75-79 yrs, % total 1.10 1.22 1.27 1.41 1.23 1.16 1.36 Population, 80-84 yrs, % total 0.63 0.74 0.85 0.90 1.00 0.88 0.85 Population, 85-89 yrs, % total 0.33 0.41 0.44 0.52 0.55 0.63 0.56 Population, 90-94 yrs, % total 0.10 0.16 0.20 0.22 0.26 0.28 0.33 Population, 95-99 yrs, % total 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.11 Population, 100+ yrs, % total 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 51 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Banking & Financial Services Methodology Industry Forecast Methodology Our industry forecasts are generated using the best-practice techniques of time-series modelling and causal/econometric modelling The precise form of model we use varies from industry to industry, in each case being determined, as per standard practice, by the prevailing features of the industry data being examined Common to our analysis of every industry is the use of vector autoregressions, which allow us to forecast a variable using more than the variable's own history as explanatory information For example, when forecasting oil prices, we can include information about oil consumption, supply and capacity When forecasting for some of our industry sub-component variables, however, using a variable's own history is often the most desirable method of analysis Such single-variable analysis is called univariate modelling We use the most common and versatile form of univariate models: the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) In some cases, ARMA techniques are inappropriate because there is insufficient historic data or data quality is poor In such cases, we use either traditional decomposition methods or smoothing methods as a basis for analysis and forecasting We mainly use OLS estimators, and we use a 'general-to-specific' method in order to avoid relying on subjective views and encourage the use of objective views We mainly use a linear model, but simple non-linear models, such as the log-linear model, are used when necessary During periods of 'industry shock', for example poor weather conditions impeding agricultural output, dummy variables are used to determine the level of impact Effective forecasting depends on appropriately selected regression models We select the best model according to various different criteria and tests, including but not exclusive to: • • • • Explanatory power: R2 tests explanatory power; adjusted R2 takes degree of freedom into account; Testing the directional movement and magnitude of coefficients; Hypothesis testing to ensure coefficients are significant (normally t-test and/or P-value); and All results are assessed to alleviate issues related to auto-correlation and multi-collinearity Human intervention plays a necessary and desirable role in all of our industry forecasting Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry data and trends ensure analysts spot structural breaks, anomalous data, turning points and seasonal features where a purely mechanical forecasting process would not Banking & Financial Services Methodology Our Banking & Financial Services Report series is closely integrated with our analysis of macroeconomic trends and financial markets The reports draw heavily on our extensive economic dataset, which includes up to 550 indicators per market, as well as our in-depth view of each local market We collate our banking databanks from official sources (including central banks and regulators) wherever possible, and only fall back on secondary sources where all attempts to secure primary data have failed Company data is sourced, in the first instance, from company reports, with central bank, regulator or trade association data only used as a backup • The banking forecast scenario focuses on total assets, client loans and client deposits • Total assets are analogous to the combined balance sheet assets of all commercial banks in a particular market They not incorporate the balance sheet of the central bank in question THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 52 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 • Client loans are loans to non-bank clients They include loans to public sector and state-owned enterprises However, they generally not include loans to governments, government (or non-government) bonds held or loans to central banks • Client deposits are deposits from the non-bank public They generally include deposits from public sector and state-owned enterprises However, they only include government deposits if these are significant • We take into account capital items and bond portfolios The former include shareholders funds, and subordinated debt that may be counted as capital The latter includes government and non-government bonds In quantifying the collective balance sheets of a particular market, we assume that three equations hold true: • Total assets = total liabilities and capital • Total assets = client loans + bond portfolio + other assets • Total liabilities and capital = capital items + client deposits + other liabilities In terms of the equations, other assets and other liabilities are balancing items that ensure equations two and three can be reconciled with equation one In practice, other assets and other liabilities are analogous to inter-bank transactions In some cases, such transactions are generally with foreign banks In most markets for which we have compiled figures, building societies/thrifts are an insignificant part of the banking landscape, and we not include them in our figures The US is the main exception to this In some cases, total assets and client loans include significant amounts that are owned or that have been lent to customers in another market In some cases, client deposits include significant amounts that have been deposited by residents of another market Such cross-border business is particularly important in major financial centres such as Singapore and Hong Kong, the richer OECD markets and certain Central and Eastern European markets Banking Industry Risk Indicator Methodology Banking Industry Risk Indicator Methodology Fitch Solutions' Banking Industry Risk Indicator (BIRI) is a composite score that measures the vulnerability of a market's banking system to unpredictable and unobserved financial stress events BIRI is a quantitative, data-driven score expressed on a to 100 scale, with 100 indicating the lowest risk and indicating the highest risk BIRI is updated quarterly and is a point-in-time score It incorporates banking industry and macroeconomic factors BIRI is a score at a market level that converts fundamental data (historical observations and model-based estimates) into a normalised banking industry risk score The BIRI calculation methodology comprises the following steps: Quarterly Data Sourcing We source quarterly series from the IMF (Financial Soundness Indicators and International Financial Statistics) and national sources such as central banks, or annual series from national or international sources (eg, World Bank) which are interpolated into quarterly frequency The fundamental indicators selection is based on academic literature research and availability To calculate the BIRI scores, all fundamental indicators selected need to be available The data legend below provides a high level of information including descriptions and sources THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 53 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Indicator Regulatory Capital To RiskWeighted Assets Bank Credit (Private Sector) To GDP Loans To Deposits Non-Performing Loans To Gross Loans Short-Term Liabilities To Total Assets Relation To Risk - BIRI Component Financial (Capitalisation & Leverage) Data Description Ratio Data Sources IMF Financial Soundness Indicators, Fitch Solutions Ratio, excess value: difference + Financial (Credit Expansion) between current period value World Bank, Fitch Solutions and 12-quarter moving average + Financial (Funding) Ratio + Financial (Asset Quality) Ratio Fitch Solutions IMF Financial Soundness Indicators, Fitch Solutions IMF Financial Soundness + Financial (Liquidity) Ratio Indicators & International Financial Statistics IMF Financial Soundness Liquid Assets To Total Assets - Financial (Liquidity) Ratio Indicators & International Financial Statistics Liquid Assets To Short-Term Liabilities IMF Financial Soundness - Financial (Liquidity) Ratio Indicators & International Financial Statistics Ratio, excess value: difference Government Debt (% of GDP) + Government Finance between current period value World Bank, Fitch Solutions and 12-quarter moving average Government Interest Payments + Government Finance Ratio World Bank, Fitch Solutions Government Balance (% of GDP) - Government Finance Ratio World Bank, Fitch Solutions GDP At PPP, USD Per Capita - Living Standard Ratio Fitch Solutions Operational Risk - Index Fitch Solutions Indicator World Bank Indicator World Bank (% of revenue) World Bank Governance Indicators: Government - Effectiveness Word Bank Governance Indicators: Regulatory Quality - Regulatory Quality & Environment Regulatory Quality & Environment Regulatory Quality & Environment Ratio, excess value: difference Gross External Debt (% of GDP) + International Linkages between current period value Fitch Solutions and 12-quarter moving average Current Account Balance (% of - International Linkages Real GDP Volatility + Economic Volatility CPI Volatility + Economic Volatility GDP) Ratio World Bank, Fitch Solutions % quarterly rolling standard IMF International Financial deviation Statistics, Fitch Solutions % quarterly rolling standard IMF International Financial deviation Statistics, national sources Note: In the 'Relation To Risk' column, '+' means that a higher indicator value implies higher risk and '-' means that a higher value implies lower risk Source: Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 54 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Data Transformation BIRI is composed of indicators whose larger value is associated with higher risk/more elevated vulnerabilities and indicators whose larger value is associated with lower risk/less elevated vulnerabilities The indicators whose larger value is associated with higher risk are pre-multiplied with a minus one, so when aggregated all indicators have the same interpretation (larger value means lower risk) Data Estimation BIRI methodology is based on the standardisation and aggregation of historical quarterly data When quarterly historical data points are not available, they are estimated There are three cases of missing data: (i) Historical data exist but in annual and not quarterly frequency; (ii) Historical quarterly data exist but there are some gaps between the existing historical values; (iii) Historical data are available but up to a previous quarter and not to the latest one In the first two cases the missing data are estimated via linear interpolations Linear interpolation is a curve fitting method where new data point estimates are constructed within the range of the known historical data Thus, when only annual data are available, we interpolate from annual to quarterly frequency, keeping the year-end or year-average value intact When there are gaps between existing historical values, the linearly interpolated data are constructed within the range of these values When the last observations are not available, they are estimated using the fitted values from the Fitch Solutions Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model The model performs the three steps of the Box-Jenkins methodology: (i) Identification (Augmented Dickey Fuller stationarity test); (ii) Estimation (Maximum Likelihood Estimation); (iii) Residuals testing (Normality test, Autocorrelation test), as well as additional tests such as Residuals Heteroscedasticity.1 We avoid extrapolation techniques to populate the edge missing values, because they often produce inaccurate estimates We not estimate annual, survey-based indicators We drag forward and fill in the quarterly values with the previous annual value available There are very few cases when it is not possible to create a model-based estimate (for example, because the outcome of one of the corresponding hypothesis tests in the Box-Jenkins methodology is not desirable) In these cases, any missing latest historical values are filled with estimates based on trend analysis Fundamental Indicators Normalisation Because the fundamental indicators are not of the same measure, we normalise them using the min-max approach This approach ranges the fundamental data from to 100 Upper and lower time-invariant bounds have been imposed on the distributions to ensure that we obtain scores that not change over time, so they are comparable The lower and upper bounds have been based on the first and 99th percentiles respectively, of the distribution of the historical fundamental data available up to Q4 2021 The min-max approach for the fundamental indicator X is: Xnormal_t = [ (X_t – min(X)) / (max(X) – min(X)) ] x 100 where Xnormal_t is the normalised value at time t, X_t is the actual value of the fundamental indicator at time t and min(X) and max(X) are the minimum and maximum values (ie, the lower and upper time-invariant bounds respectively) of the corresponding fundamental indicator THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 55 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Principal Component Analysis BIRI comprises six components which are made up of fundamental indicators The weights assigned in each linear combination of components or indicators are based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) This is a statistical procedure that converts and linearly combines our components/indicators into the most important variables called principal components Principal components explain most of the variance and summarise the most information in our data First, we apply PCA, separately, to the fundamental indicators that form each BIRI component Then we apply the PCA to the six BIRI components We select weights and then construct linear combinations that have a very high Pearson correlation coefficient with the first (most important) principal component calculated from the corresponding PCA The indicators are standardised before being used for PCA The standardisation is different to the min-max approach described above The fundamental data used for PCA are standardised by subtracting the sample mean and dividing by the standard deviation Standardisation ensures that all indicators become of the same measure For PCA analysis, we use a historical sample available that consists of 122 markets Normalised Fundamental Indicators Aggregation Into Components First, we aggregate the normalised fundamental indicators into components Below is a summary of the sub-categories of the Financial component, as well as the first aggregation step Financial Component Sub-Categories • Capitalisation & Leverage: Regulatory Capital To Risk-Weighted Assets • Credit Expansion: Bank Credit To GDP gap (excess value: difference between current period value and 12-quarter moving average) • Asset Quality: Non-Performing Loans To Gross Loans • Funding: Loans To Deposits • Liquidity: Weighted average of Liquid Assets To Total Assets, Liquid Assets To Short-Term Liabilities, Short-Term Liabilities To Total Assets Aggregation Level – From Normalised Fundamental Indicators To Components • Financial Component = weighted average of Capitalisation & Leverage, Asset Quality, Funding, Credit Expansion, Liquidity • Government Finance Component = weighted average of Government Debt (% of GDP), Government Interest Payments (% of revenue), Government Balance (% of GDP) • Regulatory Quality & Environment Component = weighted average of Operational Risk, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality • Living Standard Component = GDP At PPP, USD Per Capita • International Linkages Component = weighted average of Gross External Debt (% of GDP), Current Account Balance (% of GDP) • Economic Volatility Component = weighted average of Real GDP Volatility and CPI Volatility Components Normalisation After the first level of aggregation, the six components are normalised using the min-max approach described in step above The lower and upper time-invariant bounds used are based on the 1st and 99th percentiles respectively, of the distribution of the historical component scores most recently available Normalised Components Aggregation Into BIRI The second step of aggregation is to linearly combine the six normalised components to calculate BIRI THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 56 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Aggregation Level – From Normalised Components To BIRI BIRI = weighted average of normalised Financial component, Government Finance normalised component, normalised Regulatory Quality & Environment component, normalised Living Standard component, International Linkages normalised component, normalised Economic Volatility component BIRI Normalisation The weighted average of the six normalised components (BIRI) is normalised to ensure that it is expressed on a to 100 scale Aggregation Methodology Source: Fitch Solutions THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources Fitch Ratings analysts not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 57 Fit Fitch ch Solutions, 30 North C Colonnade olonnade,, Canary W Wharf harf,, L London ondon E14 5GN, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7248 0468 Fax: +44 (0)20 7248 0467 Web: www.fitchsolutions.com IS ISSN: SN: 2514-5169 Cop opy y Deadline: May 2022 © 20 2022 22 Fit Fitch ch Solutions Gr Group oup Limit Limited ed All rights rreserv eserved ed All information, analysis, forecasts and data provided by Fitch Solutions Group Limited is for the exclusive use of subscribing persons or organisations (including those using the service on a trial basis) All such content is copyrighted in the name of Fitch Solutions Group Limited and as such no part of this content may be reproduced, repackaged, copied or redistributed without the express consent of Fitch Solutions Group Limited All content, including forecasts, analysis and opinion, has been based on information and sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing Fitch Solutions Group Limited makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from opinion, errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the content This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 (‘FSG’) FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc (‘Fitch Ratings’) FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings Copyright © 2022 Fitch Solutions Group Limited Reproduced with permission of copyright owner Further reproduction prohibited without permission VIETNAM MARKET RESEARCH x MARKET REPORT COMMUNITY ... 4.8 5.0 5.2 -2 5.3 -3 0.1 -3 1.5 -3 3.9 -3 6.2 -3 8.7 -7 .0 -7 .4 -7 .1 -7 .0 -6 .8 -6 .7 Real GDP growth, % y-o-y Fixed capital formation, % of GDP Fixed capital formation, real growth % y-o-y Foreign reserves... Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com 42 Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Cases Have Surged Since February 2022 Vietnam - New Covid-19 Cases, 7-Day Average... Country Risk & Industry Research fitchsolutions.com Vietnam Banking & Financial Services Report | Q3 2022 Upbeat Long-Term Outlook For Financial Services Amid Favourable Demographics Vietnam - Working