Adam Knoff Intro to GIS January 22, 2009 Creating a Regional GIS to Understand and Predict Urban Sprawl As urban sprawl moves to the forefront of planners’ minds, so too does the need to view the problem and devise a solution using GIS Southern California has long been an epicenter of urban sprawl The lack of regional planning in the area has led to seemingly autonomous communities built in close vicinity to one another The end result is a region focused on the automobile and lacking any continuity In the Santa Barbara region, also known as the South Coast, students and professors from the University of California, Santa Barbara have been developing a GIS to understand urban sprawl and create smart growth methods at the regional level In an article posted at http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall01articles/modelingtools.html entitled “Modeling Tools for Santa Barbara Smart Growth Planning Supported with GIS,” the methods behind this use of GIS are explained Beginning in 1998 and still ongoing, the project has sought to look at the South Coast, which includes all towns and cities crammed into a narrow coastal plain between the Ynez Mountains and the Pacific Ocean, as an entire, integrated region Growing steadily in population since World War II, the South Coast was quickly approaching “maximum build out,” as of 1998 The entire region was facing housing affordability, transportation, and governance issues However, the area had never been recognized and studied on a regional scale The first step in the process was to design a regional GIS (REGIS) of the South Coast Using each communities’ zoning and community maps was the first step After digitizing these maps, the researchers needed to understand how the area had previously grown, so historic aerial photographs dating back to the early 1900s were scanned into computers (Due to the local aerospace industry and university resources, these photos were abundant and easily found) Next, the researchers used ArcInfo to create georeferenced mosaics of the area dating back to 1929 They created seven mosaics at roughly ten-year increments dating up to 1997, which served as the basis of the REGIS Additionally, using ArcInfo and ArcView GIS 3.2, the researchers color-coded the assessor’s digital parcel map, which, in combination with the infrastructure found in the photo mosaics, helped them create a detailed land use map, which can be seen here: QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture Source: http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall01articles/modelingtools.htm With the REGIS map created, the next step was to understand the different ways in which the South Coast could grow over time Using the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model, different scenarios of South Coast growth were calculated and displayed using the same REGIS An example of an output is shown below: QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture Source: http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall01articles/modelingtools.html In this output, “Yellow zones were urban in 2000 Light to dark pink show increasing probability of urbanization by 2040 Community general plan regions are shown in green In this scenario, all land protection was removed, and only existing parks were protected from urban growth” (esri.com, 2009) The spatial and geographic aspects of this project are integral to the project’s goals You cannot plan for a region’s growth, or in some cases decline, without first understanding the area as a spatial entity Had the researchers foregone the GIS and simply produced estimates of new housing and commercial development, new road and transportation infrastructure, and loss of coastal and open space, it would not have had the same impact While numbers and estimates are important, and were most likely included in the GIS’ associated attribute tables, the spatial images are much more powerful Furthermore, understanding each communities’ proximity also helps planners understand where there is an over or under-abundance of certain services and development Because each town was previously acting as a separate entity, the spatial display illustrates areas where certain developments, infrastructure and services can be reduced and possibly combined In addition to this project it would be useful to also see not just the models produced by the SLEUTH program, but whether or not the South Coast produced a regional plan, or smart growth initiative, and whether or not that plan incorporated GIS Because the foundation was already created it would seem obvious to create a regional plan in this manner, but as history shows, planners not always take the obvious or easy route The South Coast REGIS project shows how GIS is helping planners address classic planning techniques like regionalism using new technology This approach helps understand the problem in a highly visible, easily understood manner and will be integral in the future of planning References: http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall01articles/modelingtools.html Accessed on January 22, 2009 ... ways in which the South Coast could grow over time Using the SLEUTH Urban Growth Model, different scenarios of South Coast growth were calculated and displayed using the same REGIS An example of... were protected from urban growth? ?? (esri.com, 2009) The spatial and geographic aspects of this project are integral to the project’s goals You cannot plan for a region’s growth, or in some cases... produced by the SLEUTH program, but whether or not the South Coast produced a regional plan, or smart growth initiative, and whether or not that plan incorporated GIS Because the foundation was already