The Electoral College and Presidential Campaigns Working the System

University of Virginia Center for Politics The Electoral College and Presidential Campaigns: Working the System Purpose: This lesson may be used on its own or as a continuation of the YLI lesson The Controversial History of the Electoral College Students are required to apply their knowledge of elections and the Electoral College system to use recent information on voter trends to examine the outcomes of the 2000 elections and predict the 2004 election using Sabato’s Crystal Ball website Objectives: Students will identify the pros and cons of the Electoral College system Students will understand that voting trends in past elections affect where and how candidates campaign in upcoming elections Students will be able to interpret maps of the 2004 Election, and make inferences about the outcome of the 2004 Presidential Election from maps and charts based on given sets of data on the Presidential Elections between 1972 and 2000 Key Words: Elector Electoral College Battleground state slate/platform indirect democracy GOP plurality campaign manager swing state Materials: Student copies, “The Electoral College: Pros and Cons article Transparency, Challenge! Number of Electoral Votes per State Computer lab or student copies, Interactive Electoral Map (www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php) Student copies, Campaign Management Strategy: Election 2004 and Beyond Student copies or computer lab, 1972-2000 Presidential Election State Voting Trends, located at: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml Transparency of maps: Historical Perspectives on Presidential Electoral Votes, and Presidential Election 2004: August Predictions Procedure: Motivational Activity: Ask students if they have seen or heard any ads for the Presidential candidates on the TV or radio Record the name of the candidates and number of ads on the board (In some states students may not have been exposed to any ads.) Ask students to theorize what this means about the importance of their state in the upcoming election • Is the number of ads the same for all states? Why or why not? • What does this tell us about the campaign strategies of the candidates? • Why the candidates spend more time advertising in some states and not in others? Hand out copies of The Electoral College: Pros and Cons article, giving students 5-10 minutes to read the excerpts Ask students to study the electoral map • What is the advantage that small states have in the current system that would make those states not want to change it? • Describe the arguments for and against the Electoral College system? Which arguments seem the strongest? Weakest? • How are electoral votes allocated to a state? How might larger states seemingly benefit from this allocation, in terms of a candidates campaign choices? Hint: A second version of this reading is provided for lower ability readers Conduct a brief review of the main ideas from the previous lesson, When the Popular Vote Wasn’t Good Enough by using the Challenge! Worksheet Ask the whole class to repeat answers to the following questions: • How many total votes are there in the Electoral College? (538: 438 from the House, 100 from the Senate) • • • • How many votes does a president need from the Electoral College in order to win the election? (A majority: 270 votes) Which states would you choose to visit in order to win a clear majority of electoral votes? Which states might be “battleground” states? Why? What are some problems facing candidates as they decide which states to campaign heavily in? Hand out copies of the map titled Historical Perspective on Presidential Votes Have students review it and discuss the following questions This information can also be accessed on-line at www.greenpapers.com/G04/President-1972-2000.phtml  What does the “GOP” represent? (The “Grand Old Party” or the Republicans) For more information, see: History of the GOP  What states have voted for the GOP candidate consistently since 1988? (The ‘blue’ states: VA, NC, SC, AL, AK, MS, TX, OK, KS, NE SD, ND, WY, UT, ID.)  What states have been committed to Democratic candidates since 1988? (States in yellow won Republican in 1988 and states in blue won Republican in all four elections listed on this map The states left that have NOT won Republican since 1988 are red, green, and white: AZ, CO, MT, GA, FL, WA, OR, HI, MN, IA, WI, WV, NY, DC, RI, MA.)  How could this information be useful to a candidate running for office? (Maps such as this one tell a candidate where and how he or she should campaign in order to maximize the number of votes received in the election.)  Can you define the term indirect democracy and explain how it relates to the Electoral College? (In U.S Elections, voters place their preference for a candidate in the general election, which is considered “direct democracy.” The U.S system of elections is an “indirect democracy” because popular votes not literally elect a president – Electoral College votes do, but the electors cast votes based (usually) upon how the popular votes “tell” them to vote In this way, the election describes an indirect democracy.) Have students access the Crystal Ball website, www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ Ask students to respond to the following questions: • What information is this map providing? • Which states appear to be battleground states in the upcoming election? Which are swing states? • • According to the map, what are the fewest number of states that George W Bush needs to win in order to secure a victory? Which states? According to the map, can John Kerry win the presidential election? If yes, how many of the battleground states does he need to win in order to be elected? Which of those states would be important to winning the Electoral College? Ask the students to click on one of the swing states and read the current election analysis for this state • How could a candidate use this information to plan their campaign strategies? Activity: Campaign Management Hand out the worksheet, Campaign Management Strategy • Directions: Ask students to assume the role of campaign manager for a Democratic or Republican presidential candidate The campaign manager’s job is to advise the candidate on how and where he should spend his time between now and Election Day Managers should explain how the map of historical perspectives on Electoral College votes will help them in advising their candidate Managers may also give consideration to demographics and how they relate to your candidate’s policies and initiatives  Instruct students to use the electoral maps and charts on recent voter trends in presidential elections to complete the activities on the worksheet  Pair students up in campaign committees of 2-3 to work on the strategy NOTE: This activity can be completed in the computer lab or by using the handouts Have students share their advice for a campaign blitz Follow candidates on the campaign trail and compare student suggestions regarding where candidates should place their energy and where candidates actually make appearances Students may also make predictions about how often we will see the candidates in your state Assessment Ask the students to reflect on the importance of the electoral college on campaign planning by asking them to respond to the following: • • • • How does the Electoral College affect the campaign strategies of the Presidential candidates? How past elections influence campaign decisions in the 2004 election? What does this mean for voters in battleground and swing states? What does this mean for voters in other states? To assess their learning students can complete any of the following activities: • Write an essay that addresses each of the questions • Create a political cartoon illustrating the questions • Write a poem or song that demonstrates an understanding of the questions • Create a thirty-second PSA that addresses the influence of electoral votes on the campaign process Extension Activity: 1.The Third Party Influence Background: For many, third parties are overlooked as an influential aspect of politics However, history has proven that third parties can affect the outcome of elections both positively and negatively On one hand, third parties can have a positive influence because the issues that they run on their platforms can spur members of the two major parties to take on the issues that the third party brings up Unfortunately, this typically means that one or both of the major parties swallow up the issues of the third party Third parties can also have a negative influence, because if the candidate running for a third party gains a considerable amount of popular votes during an election, he (she) is taking votes away from candidates of the two major parties Questions to consider: Historically, which third parties and third party candidates maintained successful campaigns in that either a) a candidate was elected President, or b) the issues of the party spurred candidates of the other two parties into action? Were Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader influential in the 2000 Presidential Election? Ralph Nader has declared candidacy in the 2004 Election What issues will he take up? How can he possibly affect the general election between John Kerry and George Bush? Can Ralph Nader affect the outcome of the general election in 2004? How? Have students access: www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/calculator.html Direct the students to use the site to change the electoral votes based on the strategies suggested in the lesson Ask them to reflect on the outcome of their strategy • What is the result of your campaign blitz on the Electoral College? Campaign Management Strategy: Election 2004 and Beyond Directions: Fill in the blanks on the following worksheet, using the maps and charts you have been given to answer the questions A Interpreting Maps: How many possible electoral votes are there? How many electoral votes does a candidate need in order to win a presidential election? Name the three states with the greatest number of electoral votes Name the three states with the least number of electoral votes What is the fewest number of states necessary to win an election? How many electoral votes does Illinois (IL) have? How many senators does Hawaii (HI) have? How many members of the House of Representatives does Florida (FL) have? How many electoral votes does your state have?  How many senators does your state have?  How many members of the House of Representatives does your state have? _ 10 How many electoral votes does Washington, D.C have?  How many senators does Washington, D.C have?  How many members of the House of Representatives does Washington, D.C have?  Why is this strange? What makes Washington, D.C a special case? _ 11 If you were a campaign manager, where would you advise your candidate to go – California (CA), or Virginia (VA)? Why? B Situational Campaign Management Strategies: Use the chart on voter trends in the last six elections to analyze the following situation  Familiarize yourself with the KEY on the chart  Read the headings and titles along the axes of the chart  Consider the questions you have already answered, and the maps you have studied when crafting your strategy What does the “D” and “d” mean? The “R” and “r”? Each means something different Look at the far-left column What the terms, “Strongly Republican/Democrat,” “Leaning Republican/Democrat,” and “Truly Competitive” mean for each state? Using the KEY, answer the following questions about elections from 1972 to 2000 Abbreviations are acceptable a) List the states that have been predominately Republican over the last eight elections b) List the states that have been predominately Democratic over the last eight elections c) List the states that have been “competitive” or “toss-ups” over the last eight elections d) Why would the states considered “leaning” be significant to a candidate who is campaigning for extra votes? Consider the following Electoral College results from past elections Year of Election Winning Party By State Texas Missouri 1988 Election Republican Republican 1992 Election Republican Democrat 1996 Election Republican Democrat 2000 Election Republican Republican a) Referring to the chart above: If you were a Democratic candidate running for President, where would you be more likely to campaign, Texas or Missouri? Why? b) Referring to the chart above: If you were a Republican candidate running, where would you be more likely to go? In other words, how you maximize your total number of popular votes? Why? c) Which region of the country has the most electoral votes? The fewest? How you think this influences the election? Using the map below and the information on voting trends, make generalizations about regional trends in the United States There are about eight different regions in the U.S They are: Northeast, East, Southeast, South, Southwest, West, Northwest, Midwest and Central Geographical Regions of the U.S a) According to the numbers, which regions tend to vote Democratic? b) According to the numbers, which regions tend to vote Republican? c) According to the numbers, which regions tend to be “toss-ups”? d) If you were the incumbent President (a Republican), how would you use this information when campaigning in 2004? Which regions would you try to focus on? Why? e) If you were the challenging candidate for the Presidency (a Democrat), how would you use this information in 2004? Which regions would you try to focus on? Why? It is four weeks until the general election Your campaign committee has to plan a campaign blitz that will maximize your electoral votes in the election As a group, decide how your candidate will spend that four weeks in order to win the election Be prepared to share your strategy with the class Candidate:  Which states will your candidate visit? Why?  Which states will your candidate avoid? Why?  If your candidate is successful, how many electoral votes will this campaign blitz net for your candidate?  Which of those states would have the highest priority? Why? USE THE INTERACTIVE MAP TO DETERMINE VARIOUS OUTCOMES OF THE 2004 ELECTION… 1972-2000 Presidential Election State Voting Trends How often has a state voted for the Democratic Candidate (1972-2000)? How often has a state voted for the Republican Candidate (1972-2000)? How often has a state voted for the winning Candidate (1972-2000)? Key: D State went Democrat, Democrats won Presidency d State went Democrat, Republicans won Presidency R State went Republican, Republicans won Presidency r State went Republican, Democrats won Presidency SORTED BY State (sort) Voted Dems (sort) Voted GOP (sort) 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Voted NIXON CARTER REAGAN REAGAN BUSH CLINTON CLINTON BUSH for McGovern Ford Carter Mondale Dukakis Bush Dole Gore Winner Alabama Strongly Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R D R R R r r R Alaska Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Arizona Moderately Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R r R R R r D R Arkansas Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 100.0% R D R R R D D R California Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d Colorado Moderately Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R r R R R D r R Connecticut Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d Delaware Leaning Democrat 50.0% 50.0% 87.5% R D R R R D D d District of Columbia Strongly Democratic 100.0% 0.0% 37.5% d D d d d D D d Florida Moderately Republican 25.0% 75.0% 87.5% R D R R R r D R Georgia Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R D d R R D r R 75.0% 25.0% 62.5% R D d R d D D d Hawaii Strongly Democratic Idaho Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Illinois Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d Indiana Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Iowa Leaning Democrat 50.0% 50.0% 62.5% R r R R d D D d Kansas Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Kentucky Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 100.0% R D R R R D D R Louisiana Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 100.0% R D R R R D D R Maine Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d Maryland Leaning Democrat 62.5% 37.5% 75.0% R D d R R D D d Massachusetts Strongly Democratic 75.0% 25.0% 62.5% d D R R d D D d Michigan Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d Minnesota Strongly Democratic 87.5% 12.5% 50.0% R D d d d D D d Mississippi Strongly Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R D R R R r r R Missouri Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 100.0% R D R R R D D R Montana Moderately Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R r R R R D r R Nebraska Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Nevada Moderately Republican 25.0% 75.0% 87.5% R r R R R D D R New Hampshire Moderately Republican 25.0% 75.0% 87.5% R r R R R D D R New Jersey Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d New Mexico Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d 62.5% 37.5% 75.0% R D R R d D D d North Carolina Strongly Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R D R R R r r R North Dakota Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Ohio Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 100.0% R D R R R D D R Oklahoma Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Oregon Leaning Democrat 50.0% 50.0% 62.5% R r R R d D D d Pennsylvania Leaning Democrat 50.0% 50.0% 87.5% R D R R R D D d Rhode Island Strongly Democratic 75.0% 25.0% 62.5% R D d R d D D d South Carolina Strongly Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R D R R R r r R South Dakota Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Tennessee Truely Competitive 37.5% 62.5% 100.0% R D R R R D D R Texas Strongly Republican 12.5% 87.5% 75.0% R D R R R r r R Utah Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Vermont Leaning Democrat 37.5% 62.5% 75.0% R r R R R D D d Virginia Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R 50.0% 50.0% 62.5% R r R R d D D d 62.5% 37.5% 75.0% R D d R d D D R 62.5% 37.5% 75.0% R D R R d D D d New York Leaning Democrat Washington Leaning Democrat West Virginia Truely Competitive Wisconsin Leaning Democrat Wyoming Strongly Republican 0.0% 100.0% 62.5% R r R R R r r R Presidential Election 2004: August Predictions CHALLENGE! NUMBER OF ELECTORAL VOTES PER STATE One interesting fact about the Electoral College is that states have different numbers of electors States have the same number of electors as they have Senators and Representatives This means that states with larger populations have more electors and more votes in the Electoral College Directions: With your partner, study the electoral map from the perspective of a presidential candidate You want to win the election, and you are campaigning across the United States 1) What is the FEWEST number of states you would have to win in order to win a clear majority of electoral votes? 2) Which states did you choose? Why? Which states did you choose to leave out? Why? 3) Which states might be “battleground” states? Why? 4) What is one problem that presidential candidates might face when deciding which states to campaign the most in? (Where should they spend the money?) Form A The Electoral College, Pro and Con The Electoral College mechanism has not lacked for critics over the years The basic objection is that the system clearly has the potential to frustrate the popular will in the selection of a president and a vice president Because of the aggregation of electoral votes by state, it is possible that a candidate might win the most popular votes but lose in the Electoral College voting This happened in 1824 (when the election was thrown into the House), in 1876 (when there were disputed electors from several states), and in 1888 The winner-take-all system literally means that the candidate team that wins most of the popular votes (the plurality vote winner) in a particular state gets all of the electoral votes in that state, and the loser gets none, even if the loss is by a slim popular-vote margin Thus a candidate who fails to carry a particular state receives not a single electoral vote in that state for the popular votes received Since presidential elections are won by electoral-not popular-votes, it is the electoral vote tally that election-night viewers watch for and that tells the tale Another problem cited by critics is the possibility of "faithless electors" who defect from the candidate to whom they are pledged Most recently, in 1976, a Republican elector in the state of Washington cast his vote for Ronald Reagan instead of Gerald Ford, the Republican presidential candidate Earlier, in 1972, a Republican elector in Virginia deserted Nixon to vote for the Libertarian party candidate And in 1968, Nixon lost another Virginia elector, who bolted to George Wallace The main danger of faithless electors is that the candidate who wins the popular vote could wind up one or two votes short of a majority in the Electoral College and could lose the election on a technicality This prospect becomes more probable when there are third-party or independent candidates who could negotiate with electors before they vote Many see the apportioning of the Electoral College votes by states as a basic flaw, because it gives each of the smaller states at least three electoral votes, even though on a straight population basis some might be entitled to only one or two Critics of the system also argue that the possibility that an election could be thrown into the House of Representatives is undemocratic In such a case each state has a single vote, which gives the sparsely populated or small states equal weight with more populous states such as California or New York The two occasions when it occurred (1800 and 1824) were marked by charges of "deals" and "corrupt bargains." In any event, giving each state one vote in the House of Representatives regardless of the number of people represented is not consistent with the widely accepted concept of one-person-one-vote Also, one vote per state in the House of Representatives may not necessarily result in a choice that replicates the electoral vote winner in that state in November Those who argue in favor of retaining the present system state that there is too much uncertainty over whether any other method would be an improvement They point out that many of the complaints about the Electoral College apply just as well to the Senate and, to some extent, to the House They fear that reform could lead to the dismantling of the federal system Another argument made by defenders of the Electoral College is that the present method serves American democracy well by fostering a two-party system and thwarting the rise of splinter parties such as those that have plagued many European democracies The winner-take-all system means that minor parties get few electoral votes and that a president who is the choice of the nation as a whole emerges In the present system, splinter groups could not easily throw an election into the House Supporters feel strongly that if the electors fail to agree on a majority president, it is in keeping with the federal system that the House of Representatives, voting as states, makes the selection Supporters also argue that the Electoral College system democratically reflects population centers by giving urban areas electoral power; that is where the most votes are Thus together, urban states come close to marshaling the requisite number of electoral votes to elect a president A final argument is that for the most part, the Electoral College system has worked No election in this century has been decided in the House of Representatives Further, the winner's margin of votes is usually enhanced in the electoral vote-a mathematical happening that can make the winner in a divisive and close election seem to have won more popular support than he actually did This is thought to aid the healing of election scars and help the new president in governing www.ksg.harvard.edu/case/3pt/electoral.html Form B The Pro’s and Con’s of the Electoral College System Arguments against the Electoral College: • The possibility of electing a minority president (meaning one without the absolute majority of popular votes.) A third party candidate draws enough votes that no one candidate receives the 270 votes necessary to win the election • The risk of so-called “faithless” Electors Electors are supposed to vote for the candidate they represent, but they don’t have to • The possible role of the Electoral College in depressing voter turnout Citizens feel their vote doesn’t matter because the number of electoral votes has already been assigned • The failure of the Electoral College to reflect the public will The winner-take-all system can allow a candidate with a smaller number of popular votes in the general election to win the Electoral College and the presidency Arguments for the Electoral College: • Promotes unity in the nation by requiring a candidate to have support from various regions in order to be elected A candidate cannot receive support from only one region and expect to be President regardless of the size of the population • Enhances the status of minority groups Small numbers of voters can make a difference in whether a candidate receives all of the electoral votes for a state or not • Contributes to the political stability of the nation Promotes a two-party system It is very difficult for a third party to win enough votes to have a chance of winning the election • Maintains a federal system of government and representation Represents the State’s choice for president and allows the state some power in decision making [ANSWER KEY] CHALLENGE! Campaign Management Strategy: Election 2000 and Beyond Directions: Fill in the blanks on the following worksheet, using the maps and charts you have been given to answer the questions [this is the answer key] A Interpreting Maps: How many possible electoral votes are there? (538) How many electoral votes does a candidate need in order to win a presidential election? (270) Name the three states with the greatest number of electoral votes (CA, TX, NY) Name the three states with the least number of electoral votes (AL, DE, MT, ND, SD, VT) What is the fewest number of states necessary to win an election? (11) How many electoral votes does Illinois (IL) have? (21) How many senators does Hawaii (HI) have? (2) How many members of the House of Representatives does Florida (FL) have? (27) How many electoral votes does your state have?  How many senators does your state have?  How many members of the House of Representatives does your state have? (answer varies; 2; answer varies) 10 How many electoral votes does Washington, D.C have?  How many senators does Washington, D.C have?  How many members of the House of Representatives does Washington, D.C have?  Why is this strange? What makes Washington, D.C a special case? _ (3; 0; since DC has no senators and no members in the House, it should not have any electoral votes However, since people living in the District pay taxes and share the same responsibilities as other US citizens, they must be given the right to participate and have a voice in presidential elections.) 11 If you were a campaign manager, where would you advise your candidate to go – California (CA), or Virginia (VA)? Why? _ (CA – it has more electoral votes than VA.) B Situational Campaign Management Strategies: Use the chart on voter trends in the last six elections to analyze the following situation  Familiarize yourself with the KEY on the chart  Read the headings and titles along the axes of the chart  Consider the questions you have already answered, and the maps you have studied when crafting your strategy What does the “D” and “d” mean? The “R” and “r”? Each means something different 2 Look at the left-most column What the terms, “Strongly Republican/Democrat,” “Leaning Republican/Democrat,” and “Truly Competitive” mean for each state? Using the KEY, answer the following questions about elections from 1972 to 2000 Abbreviations are acceptable a) List the states that have been predominately Republican over the last eight elections AK, AL, ID, IN, KA, MS, NB, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, VA, WY b) List the states that have been predominately Democratic over the last eight elections DC, HI, MA, MN, RI c) List the states that have been “competitive” or “toss-ups” over the last eight elections AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, OH, TN, WV d) Why would the states considered “leaning” be significant to a candidate who is campaigning for extra votes? While these particular states have Democratic or Republican tendencies, a strong election and voter’s needs could mean that the voters choose a candidate from the opposing party Consider the following Electoral College results from past elections Year of Election Winning Party By State Texas Missouri 1988 Election Republican Republican 1992 Election Republican Democrat 1996 Election Republican Democrat 2000 Election Republican Republican a) If you were a Democratic candidate running for President, where would you be more likely to campaign, Texas or Missouri? Why? (Probably Missouri – Given that Republicans have won the votes in Texas for the past 4+ elections, you would have a better chance of winning in Missouri.) b) If you were a Republican candidate running, where would you be more likely to go? In other words, how you maximize your total number of popular votes? Why? (You would spend most of your time in Missouri You would want to go to Texas to energize your party base, but in reality you probably could win Texas with little work It would be best to spend your time in Missouri because you might have a chance of winning the state and taking Missouri votes away from the Democratic candidate.) c) Which region of the country has the most electoral votes? The fewest? How you think this influences the election? (The East generally has more votes than the West So, with the exception of California, the Western states with cities around them like NY, NJ, IL, have many votes because they have a larger population Citizens in states with large urban areas have more “say” in elections than citizens in more rural states.) ... importance of the electoral college on campaign planning by asking them to respond to the following: • • • • How does the Electoral College affect the campaign strategies of the Presidential candidates?... the Electoral College to reflect the public will The winner-take-all system can allow a candidate with a smaller number of popular votes in the general election to win the Electoral College and. .. presidential candidates might face when deciding which states to campaign the most in? (Where should they spend the money?) Form A The Electoral College, Pro and Con The Electoral College mechanism