The effect of oil price to inflation in vietnam (2)

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY Lâm Minh Minh THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICE TO INFLATION IN VIETNAM MASTER’S THESIS In Financial and Banking Ology code: 60.31.12 Supervisor Dr Nguyễn Thu Hiền Ho Chi Minh City 2010 Page i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research would not have been possible without the support of many people Firstly, I wish to express my deep sincere gratitude to my supervisor who is also my instructor, Dr Nguyen Thu Hien (Vice Dean, School of Industrial Management, University of Technology) for her invaluable advice and helps Without her, this thesis could not have been completed Special thanks to my professors who are in university of economics HoChiMinh city and Dr Cao Hao Thi in university of Technology HoChiMinh city without whose knowledge and assistance this study would have been successful My thanks would also go to all of my classmates, my colleagues for all of their friendship and encouragement Finally, I would like to express my deepest gratitude and honour to my dear parents for not only the love they devote to me but also for the time I took from them which should have been my devotion to them in their aged time My greatest thanks would go to my family, their encouragement give a power to finish this research ỵ Page i ỵ Page ii ABSTRACT This study analyses the oil price – inflation relationship by means of analysing the impact of oil prices on consumer price index - CPI in Vietnam using monthly data for the period of Jan 1995 – Nov 2010 This study reports on the research results by testing the model of relationship between three main factors as global oil price, domestic oil price and Vietnam’s CPI through using three main testings as stationarity test, cointegration test and causality test That testings is collected based on the testing of many previous researches that post on website of science direct The study may also provide some equation to quantify their relationship such as the impact of global oil price to domestic oil price, the effect of domestic oil price to CPI and the effect of global oil price to CPI with the purpose of forecasting work Key word: oil price, inflation, CPI, the impact of oil price Page ii Page TABLE OF CONTENT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .I ABSTRACT II TABLE OF CONTENT III LIST OF FIGURE .VI CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 - INTRODUCTION .1 1.2 - RESEARCH BACKGROUND 1.3 - RATIONALE OF THE RESEARCH .2 1.4 - RESEARCH OBJECTIVE 1.5 - SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF THE RESEARCH 1.5.1 - Scope of Research 1.5.2 - Research Method 1.6 - STRUCTURE OF RESEARCH CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .5 2.1 - INTRODUCTION .5 2.2 - TRANSMISSION CHANNELS OF OIL PRICES .5 2.2.1 - First-round effect 2.2.2 - Second-round effect .7 2.3 – PREVIOUS RESEARCHES .8 2.4 - CONCLUSION 10 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 11 3.1 - INTRODUCTION 11 3.2 - BUSINESS RESEARCH 11 3.3 - RESEARCH DESIGN .12 Page 3.3.1 - Research Hypotheses: 13 3.3.2 - Draft of Research Model: 15 3.4 - RESEARCH MODEL 15 3.5 – OVERVIEW DATA 21 3.5.1 – HISTORY OF WORLD OIL PRICE 21 3.5.2 – INFLATION OF VIETNAM 25 3.5.3 – Oil price of Vietnam: 29 3.6 – CONCLUSION 31 4.1 - INTRODUCTION 32 4.2 - DATA DESCRIPTION 32 4.2.1 Global oil price 33 4.2.2 Domestic oil price in Vietnam 33 4.2.3 Consumer price index 34 4.2.4 Exchange rate in Vietnam 35 4.3 - TESTING CORRELATION BETWEEN VARIABLES 36 4.4 - TESTING STATIONARITY 39 4.5 - TESTING COINTEGRATION 42 4.5.1 - Relationship between global oil price and domestic oil price 42 4.5.2 - Relationship between domestic oil price and CPI 44 4.5.3 - Relationship between global oil price and CPI of Vietnam .45 4.6 - TESTING CAUSALITY 46 4.6.1 - Causality test for WO – DO 47 4.6.2 - Causality test for DO – CPI 48 4.6.3 - Causality test for WO - CPI 49 4.6.4 - Causality test for WOEX - CPI 50 4.7 - FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS 51 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS 53 15 2/7 APPENDIX Variable's name WO DO C EX WOEX RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)=(2)*(5) (7) (8) (9) (10) Oct-2008 Nov-2008 76.61 57.31 16000 14000 192.70 191.90 16517 16493 1265367 945214 3351.0169 4086.1198 3289.2526 3903.8248 -5.4533 6.6731 17.2780 33.5468 Dec-2008 41.12 12000 191.20 16598 682510 4380.4886 4049.2320 18.8995 47.1652 Jan-2009 41.71 11000 191.52 16973 707944 3296.8767 2841.5218 25.6827 46.9634 Feb-2009 39.09 11000 192.69 16976 663592 3668.1704 3203.7283 26.8527 50.4505 Mar-2009 47.94 11000 192.52 16973 813686 2413.9911 1977.9657 26.6827 42.4536 Apr-2009 49.65 12000 192.87 16938 840972 3171.6581 2755.1309 20.5695 41.2913 May-2009 59.03 12500 193.31 16938 999850 2342.3697 1957.6326 17.7779 33.4357 Jun-2009 69.64 13500 193.86 16949 1180328 1838.7717 1483.7350 11.8647 24.6023 Jul-2009 64.15 14200 194.38 16961 1088048 3316.7880 2937.3519 7.8605 29.9776 Aug-2009 71.05 14700 194.62 16968 1205576 2838.9533 2477.5438 4.8689 24.1153 Sep-2009 69.41 15700 195.24 16985 1178929 4071.3662 3695.1601 -0.9743 26.1857 Oct-2009 75.72 15500 195.61 17002 1287391 2977.1434 2609.3907 0.6883 20.9751 Nov-2009 77.99 16300 196.16 17177 1339634 3455.4499 2982.7413 -3.9322 19.5176 Dec-2009 74.47 15950 197.54 17942 1336141 3604.2873 2661.2673 -0.2901 24.0106 Jan-2010 78.33 16400 198.90 17941 1405319 3507.2667 2546.3160 -1.8386 21.9569 Feb-2010 76.39 16990 200.86 18243 1393583 4372.1942 3232.1596 -3.6918 25.6326 Mar-2010 81.20 16990 201.61 18544 1505773 3690.5442 2315.9450 -2.9418 22.1287 Apr-2010 84.29 16990 201.75 18544 1563074 3252.6443 1847.9888 -2.8018 19.5359 May-2010 73.74 16490 202.02 18544 1367435 4247.7394 2945.7007 0.6998 29.1362 Jun-2010 75.34 16490 202.24 18544 1397105 4020.9951 2703.3967 0.9198 27.9412 Jul-2010 76.32 16490 202.30 18544 1415278 3882.1143 2554.9845 0.9798 27.1345 Aug-2010 76.60 15990 202.53 18720 1433952 3342.4340 1902.4808 4.4413 27.1169 Sep-2010 75.24 16400 203.84 18932 1424444 3945.1666 2390.1291 3.1014 29.6297 Oct-2010 81.89 16400 204.89 18932 1550341 3002.7607 1361.9745 4.1514 24.7984 Nov-2010 84.25 16400 206.75 18932 1595021 2668.3129 997.0893 6.0114 24.5713 Page 153 APPENDIX 5: Result of Testing the Stationarity of Variables by Dickey-Fuller unit root test (1) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for WO Null Hypothesis: WO has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -0.583152 -2.577320 -1.942527 -1.615577 0.4636 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(WO) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/24/10 Time: 06:50 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 188 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob WO(-1) D(WO(-1)) D(WO(-2)) -0.003607 0.349637 0.185351 0.006186 0.072404 0.073065 -0.583152 4.828984 2.536791 0.5605 0.0000 0.0120 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.202014 0.193387 4.208457 3276.555 -535.4224 1.960381 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.349521 4.685870 5.727898 5.779543 5.748823 (2) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for DO Null Hypothesis: DO has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* 1.520968 -2.577190 -1.942508 -1.615589 0.9684 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DO) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/24/10 Time: 06:49 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 190 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob DO(-1) 0.006669 0.004385 1.520968 0.1299 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat -0.001984 -0.001984 531.0408 53298827 -1461.316 1.728917 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 63.15789 530.5149 15.39280 15.40989 15.39973 Page 155 (3)Dickey-Fuller unit root test for CPI Null Hypothesis: CPI has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 13 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* 2.716344 0.9985 -2.578092 -1.942634 -1.615508 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CPI) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/24/10 Time: 16:15 Sample (adjusted): 15 191 Included observations: 177 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CPI(-1) D(CPI(-1)) D(CPI(-2)) D(CPI(-3)) D(CPI(-4)) D(CPI(-5)) D(CPI(-6)) D(CPI(-7)) D(CPI(-8)) D(CPI(-9)) D(CPI(-10)) D(CPI(-11)) D(CPI(-12)) D(CPI(-13)) 0.001513 0.586795 0.015350 0.087202 -0.052861 0.042082 -0.082140 -0.068097 0.010244 -0.015583 0.031443 -0.077280 0.548463 -0.427536 0.000557 0.070757 0.070019 0.069839 0.070208 0.070312 0.070351 0.070401 0.070248 0.070217 0.070461 0.069792 0.069374 0.068473 2.716344 8.293052 0.219220 1.248615 -0.752921 0.598501 -1.167579 -0.967282 0.145823 -0.221926 0.446250 -1.107297 7.905929 -6.243863 0.0073 0.0000 0.8268 0.2136 0.4526 0.5503 0.2447 0.3348 0.8842 0.8246 0.6560 0.2698 0.0000 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.514918 0.476231 0.640422 66.85281 -164.9835 2.088759 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.514407 0.884904 2.022413 2.273634 2.124298 APPENDIX – Testing the first difference (1) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for WO Null Hypothesis: D(WO) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -6.068480 -2.577320 -1.942527 -1.615577 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(WO,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/25/10 Time: 09:13 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 188 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(WO(-1)) D(WO(-1),2) -0.472246 -0.180795 0.077820 0.072517 -6.068480 -2.493127 0.0000 0.0135 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.311327 0.307624 4.200984 3282.578 -535.5950 1.959622 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.012713 5.048707 5.719096 5.753526 5.733046 (2) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for DO Null Hypothesis: D(DO) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -11.76781 -2.577255 -1.942517 -1.615583 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DO,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/25/10 Time: 08:45 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 189 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(DO(-1)) -0.848326 0.072089 -11.76781 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.424163 0.424163 529.5022 52710051 -1453.074 2.022286 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.000000 697.7792 15.38703 15.40418 15.39398 Page 158 (3) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for CPI Null Hypothesis: D(CPI) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 12 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -1.737795 -2.578092 -1.942634 -1.615508 0.0780 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CPI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/25/10 Time: 09:19 Sample (adjusted): 15 191 Included observations: 177 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(CPI(-1)) D(CPI(-1),2) D(CPI(-2),2) D(CPI(-3),2) D(CPI(-4),2) D(CPI(-5),2) D(CPI(-6),2) D(CPI(-7),2) D(CPI(-8),2) D(CPI(-9),2) D(CPI(-10),2) D(CPI(-11),2) D(CPI(-12),2) -0.126606 -0.260987 -0.219643 -0.111532 -0.146322 -0.084529 -0.148191 -0.197481 -0.168046 -0.163759 -0.115058 -0.170991 0.403731 0.072854 0.097084 0.095668 0.094991 0.092392 0.089990 0.086406 0.084487 0.083901 0.082340 0.081285 0.076192 0.069218 -1.737795 -2.688271 -2.295888 -1.174136 -1.583705 -0.939320 -1.715065 -2.337401 -2.002898 -1.988809 -1.415477 -2.244206 5.832751 0.0841 0.0079 0.0229 0.2420 0.1152 0.3489 0.0882 0.0206 0.0468 0.0484 0.1588 0.0262 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.497182 0.460391 0.652757 69.87903 -168.9016 2.040737 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter -0.003616 0.888611 2.055386 2.288662 2.149994 APPENDIX – Testing the second difference (1) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for WO Null Hypothesis: D(WO,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -21.32440 -2.577320 -1.942527 -1.615577 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(WO,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/29/10 Time: 20:08 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 188 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(WO(-1),2) -1.419103 0.066548 -21.32440 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.708599 0.708599 4.585785 3932.502 -552.5758 2.060771 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter -0.019840 8.495087 5.889104 5.906320 5.896079 (2) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for DO Null Hypothesis: D(DO,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -9.491841 -2.577730 -1.942584 -1.615541 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DO,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/29/10 Time: 20:15 Sample (adjusted): 10 191 Included observations: 182 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(DO(-1),2) D(DO(-1),3) D(DO(-2),3) D(DO(-3),3) D(DO(-4),3) D(DO(-5),3) D(DO(-6),3) -3.820224 2.101695 1.604491 1.259532 0.938301 0.675877 0.275849 0.402474 0.368226 0.322894 0.267200 0.206900 0.140387 0.073158 -9.491841 5.707617 4.969094 4.713815 4.535043 4.814398 3.770578 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.793869 0.786801 562.3426 55340109 -1407.122 2.015478 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.000000 1217.892 15.53980 15.66303 15.58976 (3) Dickey-Fuller unit root test for CPI Null Hypothesis: D(CPI,2) has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: 11 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -5.075365 -2.578092 -1.942634 -1.615508 0.0000 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CPI,3) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/29/10 Time: 20:17 Sample (adjusted): 15 191 Included observations: 177 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob D(CPI(-1),2) D(CPI(-1),3) D(CPI(-2),3) D(CPI(-3),3) D(CPI(-4),3) D(CPI(-5),3) D(CPI(-6),3) D(CPI(-7),3) D(CPI(-8),3) D(CPI(-9),3) D(CPI(-10),3) D(CPI(-11),3) -3.142234 1.766466 1.443160 1.238229 1.007218 0.847277 0.631912 0.375375 0.156577 -0.049749 -0.199032 -0.394146 0.619115 0.577608 0.533133 0.484410 0.435164 0.385246 0.337579 0.289424 0.237901 0.185128 0.126920 0.069419 -5.075365 3.058245 2.706941 2.556160 2.314570 2.199316 1.871892 1.296973 0.658161 -0.268729 -1.568173 -5.677788 0.0000 0.0026 0.0075 0.0115 0.0219 0.0292 0.0630 0.1965 0.5114 0.7885 0.1188 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.809746 0.797063 0.656740 71.16580 -170.5165 2.025696 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter -0.004463 1.457850 2.062333 2.277665 2.149663 Page 162 APPENDIX – Testing the residual (1) Residual of regression DO-WO Null Hypothesis: RES1 has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -2.506845 -2.577190 -1.942508 -1.615589 0.0122 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RES1) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/29/10 Time: 22:33 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 190 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob RES1(-1) -0.070903 0.028284 -2.506845 0.0130 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.031728 0.031728 628.4668 74649418 -1493.321 1.917404 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 13.77388 638.6803 15.72969 15.74678 15.73662 (2) Residual of regression DO-WOEX Null Hypothesis: RES2 has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -3.206632 -2.577190 -1.942508 -1.615589 0.0015 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RES2) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/29/10 Time: 22:51 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 190 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob RES2(-1) -0.104429 0.032567 -3.206632 0.0016 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.051572 0.051572 594.4987 66798020 -1482.764 1.959443 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 3.129659 610.4482 15.61856 15.63565 15.62549 (3) Residual of regression CPI-DO Null Hypothesis: RES3 has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.715701 0.0002 Test critical values: -2.577190 -1.942508 -1.615589 1% level 5% level 10% level *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RES3) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/29/10 Time: 23:08 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 190 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob RES3(-1) -0.117843 0.031715 -3.715701 0.0003 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.066627 0.066627 3.282085 2035.923 -494.9080 1.740636 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.133641 3.397208 5.220084 5.237174 5.227007 (4) Residual of regression CPI-WO Null Hypothesis: RES has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level t-Statistic Prob.* -3.621438 -2.577320 -1.942527 -1.615577 0.0003 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RES) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/25/10 Time: 18:51 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 188 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob RES(-1) D(RES(-1)) D(RES(-2)) -0.069725 0.304729 0.259633 0.019254 0.069798 0.071695 -3.621438 4.365896 3.621360 0.0004 0.0000 0.0004 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.217018 0.208553 3.614032 2416.327 -506.7953 1.994931 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.219343 4.062386 5.423354 5.474999 5.444279 (4) Residual of regression CPI-WOEX Null Hypothesis: RES5 has a unit root Exogenous: None Lag Length: (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=14) t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.151888 0.0000 Test critical values: -2.577320 -1.942527 -1.615577 1% level 5% level 10% level *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RES5) Method: Least Squares Date: 12/30/10 Time: 16:34 Sample (adjusted): 191 Included observations: 188 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob RES5(-1) D(RES5(-1)) D(RES5(-2)) -0.088253 0.308666 0.260497 0.021256 0.069214 0.071348 -4.151888 4.459565 3.651079 0.0001 0.0000 0.0003 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood Durbin-Watson stat 0.229852 0.221526 3.435593 2183.610 -497.2760 1.995442 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter 0.144974 3.893854 5.322085 5.373730 5.343010 ...MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY Lâm Minh Minh THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICE TO INFLATION IN VIETNAM MASTER’S THESIS In Financial and Banking Ology... Structure of the Research 1.2 - Research Background At the beginning of the year 2007, domestic oil price had increasing continuously following the sharp hiking of the world oil price Incessant... the prices of other items that are close substitutes, thus leading to an increase from the prices of oilrelated energy to natural gas price The extent to which rising oil prices translate into