ECON1269 international trade prisoner’s dilemma with the existence of oligopoly

Group Assignment ECON1269 International Trade Member name Vu Hien Linh - s3756735 Le Minh Hoang Minh - s3748986 Do Nhu Nguyen - s3671998 Dao Thanh Hung - s3751828 Lecturer name Phan Minh Hoa Class Wednesday morning Campus Hanoi RMIT campus Word Count 1995 (excluding references, titles and figure’s name) Question 1: Prisoner’s Dilemma with the Existence of Oligopoly: Prisoner’s Dilemma is a game theory where two players, based on their predictions on how the other will play, would make a response for it There are choices for both, Defect and Cooperate, so there will be outcomes, creating a matrix below The best scenario for both is to coop, but there would be a risk since one player could cheat and get the highest prize Therefore, to avoid risk, the dominant strategy is to defect (S Kuhn, 1997) In the case with Oligopoly’s appearance, it will be the choice of setting prices, high or low price If oligopolies choose to set high price, they will maximize the industry’s profits since they are price-makers However, if a firm cheats and set lower price, that firm will penetrate market, since the products are homogenous, consumers would choose cheaper ones However, it will result in punishment, the other player will adjust their price lower than the cheater to penetrate the market back, and the cycle begins, until both of them cannot lower anymore (>= MC of their products), and it will be a loss compared to the scenario where both of them cooperate To conclude, it is best for both if firms cooperate Effect of International Trade to the Stakeholders: In Trade, stakeholders in Home will be affected the same way as Foreign, since each firm in each country joins trade with existence of oligopoly rival Figure Welfare Effect of Trade Before Trade (Autarky): - Consumer Surplus: Blue area - Firm Profit: Black, Orange, Green, and Yellow area After joining Trade: With Transportation Cost (TC): - Consumer Surplus: Blue, Black, Grey area Due to the price in Trade being lower than price in Autarky, consumers gain additional surplus in Black and Grey area In Trade, firms face their Oligopoly rival, instead of having absolute pricing power in Autarky, their pricing power in Trade is divided - Firm Profit: Orange, Yellow, Light Blue Firm loses Black area since the price in Trade is lower than Price in Autarky Moreover, area Green no longer belongs to firm profit since it is being transformed into transportation cost It is yet to conclude whether firm gain from trade (with TC), however, since firms lose areas in profit compared to Autarky, while gain back from Trade, the outcome is likely that Oligopoly firms lose if they join Trade Without Transportation Cost: - Consumer Surplus: Blue, Black, Grey - Firm profit: Orange, Yellow, Green, Light Blue area Firm loses black area due to lower price, while keeping profit from area Grey (were supposed to be TC) In this case, firms lose and gain area, so if Black area is smaller than Light Blue, firms gain from Trade without TC The outcome goes opposite if Black is bigger Conclusion: - If Transportation Cost is low enough, and additional Consumer Surplus does not outweigh the gain from Trade, then Oligopolies still be able to gain from Trade, yet still unlikely - Consumers always gain from Trade - For the society: Positivity: increased market competitiveness (Monopoly to Oligopoly), decreased Deadweight Loss Negativity: waste of resources on unnecessary transportation of identical products from other countries, since the same product existed in domestic Optimal transportation should be getting products that is unavailable To sell in the foreign market, transportation costs must be considered If firm wants to penetrate the foreign market, they need to lower price, meaning they have to choose defect option (prisoner’s dilemma) However, firms cannot lower prices to equal Marginal Cost + Transportation Cost Meanwhile, the rival in that foreign country, firm 2, might have the same MC for product, but they not have to care about TC, since they are in homeland Therefore, by defecting, the oligopoly rival can lower their price near to MC, which is lower than the lowest price of what firm can set, as a punishment to firm 1’s action Moreover, market share when firm enters foreign market will not be 50% at start since consumers in that country get used to the image of firm To conclude, penetrating the foreign market in which oligopoly rival existed is impossible Question 2: Assumption Due to the fact that (1) the textile industry is manufacturing intensive, it's main factors are labor (L) and K (capital) and (2) the sugar industry is agricultural intensive, it's main factors are labor (L) and land (A) As both industries require more unskilled labor which is abundant in Vietnam, we conclude that while K and A are still specific, factor L is mobile creating a mixed specific factor model between two industries Hence, Instead of wages for each industry worker, we have a single wage for the whole country, at this equilibrium wage the sum of workers in both textile and sugar industry equals to the total L Equilibrium wage Figure 2: Equilibrium wage before tax adjustment As Vietnam has a comparative advantage in textile industry and comparative disadvantage in sugar industry, our country focuses more on producing textile Therefore, the labor hired by textile firms should be higher than labor for the sugar industry The wage of a worker presenting the extra cost brought by one worker is calculated by multiplying the price of product by the extra revenue that worker brings to the firm (w = p x MPL) When the two wage curves meet, the equilibrium price (w) and each industry labor supply is created Above the wage (w) line and under curves is textile capitalists’ income (orange sector) and sugar farmers' income (yellow sector), only part below the wage line (grey sector) is workers' income Tax adjustment Figure 3: Equilibrium wage after tax reduction As shown in the graph above, if the government lowers the tax rate, only textile capitalists benefit with an increased income but both sugar farmers and total workers suffer Tariff reduction causing the wage curve of the sugar industry shifts down lowers the equilibrium wage, hence part of the workers' previous income is cut On behalf of the sugar farmers, though the shift has brought them a small increase in income from the cut of workers wage, it cannot counterbalance their loss of quantity supply (stripe yellow sector) Budget Line For example, if the tax cut is down to 5%, the price of sugar products will be reduced by 5% but the wage of workers is reduced less than 5% as increasing in price (p S) leads to decrease in labor ( LS ) resulting in increasing MPLS For sugar industry labor, the less than 5% decrease in wage raising their purchasing power in sugar products but decreasing in textile one Their budget line is now changed (shown in graph below) Figure 4: Sugar workers’ budget line change On the other hand, for the capitalist, the 5% decrease in price induces their capital rent more than 5% which weakens their purchasing power in both sugar and textile products Their budget line is now changed (shown in graph below) Figure 5: Sugar capitalists' budget line change In conclusion, due to the fact that Vietnam has comparative advantage in producing textile not sugar products, we export garments and tend to import sugar products, therefore with a tariff deduction, capitalist acted as a specific factor from the import-competing sector are unambiguously hurt Therefore, I agree with the Association of Sugar Products of Vietnam appeal of tariff lowering Indeed, as the effect of ATIGA on reducing raw sugar tariff, the imported sugar quantity increases dramatically leading to local price closer to global levels despite higher production cost, this has hurt both the sugarcane farmers and the local companies (Van, 2020) Question 3: Trading partner analysis Since Vietnam joined the WTO in 2007, trade activities between the US and Vietnam have made great progress and increased strongly In 2019, the United States is Vietnam's third largest trading partner with annual trade growth of 20% The total trade value of goods and services was estimated at $81.3 billion in 2019 ( Ustr.gov 2019), with exports accounting for the largest partner share 22.9% (appendix 1) (Vietnamcustoms.gov 2019) with $13.4 billion, imports were $67.9 The US goods and service trade deficit with Vietnam was $54.5 billion for the same year According to Demombynes & Testaverde (2018), workers with university degrees or higher only accounted for 9% in 2013(appendix 2) However, the number was still quite modest compared to the number of low degrees workers with 91% Figure 6: Education Distribution of the Workforce in Vietnam (World Bank 2014) Figure 7: Jobs by designated education level of occupations in US, May 2013 (BLS.gov, 2014) According to the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics (2014), in 2013, the United States had quite a high proportion of workers with bachelor's degrees to doctorate degrees with 23% of the total employees, double than Vietnam The majority of the 77% remaining workforce belong to the high school diploma group (39%) or less (27%) Therefore, we have the labor ratio between US and Vietnam: ( ) ( ) 23 S S US❑ VN ❑ = > ❑ = 77 U 91 U ❑ S : percentage of skilled labor U : percentage of unskilled labor Because the labor ratio of the US is higher than Vietnam, thus, America is a skill labor abundant country compared to Vietnam HOM implication Vietnam was ranked as the 13th biggest trading partner of the United States in 2019 with many imported goods across a range of industries According to the US Trade Representative (2019), the top import goods from Vietnam to the US were electronic components ($22 billion), knit apparel ($7.7 billion), furniture and bedding ($7.2 billion), footwear ($7.0 billion), and woven apparel ($5.8 billion) Most industries are light and required unskilled labor instead of large capital In contrast, main export products from the US require high skill labor and large capital In 2019, top categories exporting were electrical machinery ($1.7 billion), cotton ($1.5 billion), aircraft ($787 million), plastics ($772 million), and machinery ($476 million) To test further implication of the Heckscher-Ohlin model, we choose main goods which are apparel from Vietnam and electrical machinery from the US, factors of production, capital and labour to analyze Textile and apparel industries are labor intensive because it contain a sewing stage requiring a lot of low skilled labor but dexterity which is suitable for Vietnamese workers, and no requirement for high investment in technology or capital (Tot 2014) As mentioned above, Vietnam is an unskilled labor abundant country compared to the US, with 69.8% of the labor force residing in the rural areas (Le & Wang 2017 ), and majority of the factories are also located in rural areas for land availability Therefore, it was reasonable for Vietnam to choose apparel (labor intensive) as a key export industry On the other hand, US exports were the most skilled and capital-intensive (O’Connor & Lunati 1999) while choosing electrical machinery which is a highly sophisticated technology industry Machinery manufacturing jobs primarily required high skilled labor, professions with well-compensated trades and automation technologies ( Selectusa 2018), thus, machinery manufacture is skilled labor and capital intensive Moreover, 23% of the total 159 million US labor force (appendix 3) is skilled and since the beginning of 20 century the rapid development of technology and automatic machinery has resulted in a significant increase of labor productivity and capital, which is suitable for a complex technology industry (Baily & Bosworth 2014) Therefore, both the US and Vietnam tended to export products intensively related to the country's abundant factors and import the others, which support the implication of the HOM SST implication As the implication of SST, we expect the skilled labor of the US will benefit from trade and the unskilled labor suffers hence widening the income distribution Based on figure 8, the US had a higher Gini index than Vietnam which demonstrated the higher inequality of individual’s income According to the Census Bureau report (2000), they acknowledge the income inequality started earnestly rising since the 1980s that coincided with the manufacturing shifting from goods producing industry (create job opportunity for unskilled workers) to technology service industries (benefit college graduates labor) Figure 8: Gini index (estimate) between United States and Vietnam (World Bank 2018) Figure 9: Median Wage by Educational Attainment of US from 1980 to 2018 (Donovan & Bradley 2019) Since the export-intensive industry must increase their competitive advantage by investing in technology and capital, which increase productivity leading to rising demand for skilled labor and gradually replace low skill workers (Riker 2015) Moreover, the upgradation in product quality, technology development has created a high demand for US machinery export in the world, thereby increasing product prices (skilled labour intensive) (World Bank 2019) Therefore, raising prices for export machinery has benefited the wages of skilled labors (production factor) and hurt the scarce factors which are unskilled laborers From 2000 to 2018 (figure 9), there was a slow growth wage of workers less than bachelor's degrees, however, the widened income gaps resulted from strongest wage growth of labor with advanced degrees (Economic Policy Institute 2019) Therefore, the rising wages of abundant factors in the US thanks to trade supports the implication of the SST model On the other hand, in Vietnam, unskilled workers in apparel and textile industries benefited from trade liberalization With countries having lower domestic prices than the world, selling textile products at world prices drives up the prices of the industry Over the last 20 years, overall wages of skilled labour grew due to the development of the world, however, the fastest growth belongs to unskilled labor Specifically, between 1997 and 2004, the salaries of skilled workers only increased by 11% while unskilled labor rose by 15% (Cling et al 2009) Therefore, the apparel industry (unskilled labor intensive) rose prices due to trade lead to the increase in abundant factors wages and hurt the scare factors which is true with the SST model Reference Barkley A 2016 , 5.3: Oligopoly Models, Social Science, viewed 11 Dec 2020, Dixit A &Nalebuff B 1991, Prisoners’ Dilemma, The Library of Economics and Liberty, viewed 15 Dec 2020, Baily, M.N & Bosworth, B.P 2014, ‘US manufacturing: Understanding its past and its potential future’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(1), pp.3-26 Census Bureau report 2000, Productivity, census.gov, viewed 15 Dec 2020, http://www.census.gov/prod/2000pubs/p60-204.pdf Data.worldbank.org 2018, Gini Index Data, World Bank Estimate, viewed 12 Dec 2020, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=U Demombynes, G & Testaverde, M 2018, ‘Employment structure and returns to skill in Vietnam: estimates using the labor force survey’, The World Bank, pp1 Donovan, S A., & Bradley, D H 2019, ‘Real wage trends, 1979 to 2017’, Congressional Research Service.gov, c12, pp45 Gould E 2019, State Of Working America Wages 2019: A Story Of Slow, Uneven, And Unequal Wage Growth Over The Last 40 Years, Economic Policy Institute, viewed 11 Dec 2020, https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2019/ Le, T.N & Wang, C.N 2017, ‘The integrated approach for sustainable performance evaluation in the value chain of Vietnam textile and apparel industry’,Sustainability, 9(3), p.477 10 O’Connor, D & Lunati, M.R 1999, ‘Economic opening and the demand for skills in developing countries: A review of theory and evidence’, OECD DEVELOPMENT CENTRE, pp65-pp98 http://213.154.74.164/invenio/record/10903/files/oecd-tp149.pdf 11 Riker, D 2015,’ Export-intensive industries pay more on average: An update’, J Int'l Com & Econ, pp.1 12 S Kuhn, [1997?], Prisoner’s Dilemma [viewed 11 Dec 2020] Available from: 13 Selectusa.gov.2018, Machinery & Equipment Industry Spotlight, Selectusa.Gov, viewed 13 Dec 2020, https://www.selectusa.gov/machinery-and-equipment-industry-united-states 14 Tot B 2014, ‘TEXTILE & APPAREL INDUSTRY REPORT’, FPT Securities, viewed 15 Dec 2020, http://fpts.com.vn/FileStore2/File/2014/07/01/Textile%20and%20Apparel %20Industry%20Report%20(latest).pdf 15 U.S BLS 2014, Career OutLook, U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics, viewed 14 Dec 2020, https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2014/article/education-level-and-jobs.htm 16 USTR 2019, Vietnam | United States Trade Representative,Ustr.gov, viewed 15 Dec 2020, https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/southeast-asia-pacific/vietnam#:~:text=U.S.%20goods%20and %20services%20trade,billion%3B%20imports%20were%20%2467.9%20billion 17 Vietnam Investment Review, ‘Measures thrashed out to protect sugar farmers’, VIR, 29 September, viewed 18 December 2020, 18 VNCustoms 2019, Preliminary Assessment Of Vietnam International Merchandise Trade Performance In The First Months Of 2019 : Englishnews : Vietnam Customs, VNCustoms.gov.vn, viewed 16 Dec 2020, https://www.customs.gov.vn/Lists/EnglishNews/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=708&Category=News %20and%20Events&language=en-US 19 World Development Report 2019, Trading for development in the age of global value chains, World Bank, viewed 13 Dec 2020, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/32437/9781464814570.pdf Appendix: Appendix 1: Export, Import total value and growth rate of Vietnam in 2019 (Vietnamcustoms.gov 2019) Appendix 2: Education distribution of work force in Vietnam by years (World Bank 2014) Appendix 3: Total labor force of the United State from 2000 to 2019 (World Bank, 2019) ...Question 1: Prisoner’s Dilemma with the Existence of Oligopoly: Prisoner’s Dilemma is a game theory where two players, based on their predictions on how the other will play, would make... punishment, the other player will adjust their price lower than the cheater to penetrate the market back, and the cycle begins, until both of them cannot lower anymore (>= MC of their products),... (Economic Policy Institute 2019) Therefore, the rising wages of abundant factors in the US thanks to trade supports the implication of the SST model On the other hand, in Vietnam, unskilled workers