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CHANGING TIDES How Sea-level Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies ALONG THE U.S EASTERN SEABOARD Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard Changing Tides How Sea-level Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies ALONG THE U.S EASTERN SEABOARD Copyright © 2016 National Wildlife Federation Lead Authors: Lauren Anderson, Patty Glick, Shannon Heyck-Williams, and Jim Murphy We appreciate the work and dedication to conservation of all National Wildlife Federation staff and our 50 affiliate partners, which help make efforts like this possible In particular, we wish to thank the following contributors to this report: Catherine Bowes, Zach Cockrum, Hilary Falk, Manley Fuller, Melissa Gaydos, Tim Gestwicki, Steve Gilbert, Brenna Goggin, Ben Gregg, Amber Hewett, Christopher Hilke, Nicole Holstein, Tara Losoff, Jim Lyon, Todd Martin, Jen Mihills, Eric Orff, Vanessa Peña, Ed Perry, Joshua Saks, Taj Schottland, Bruce Stein, and Ron Warnken This report was made possible by the many donors and supporters of the National Wildlife Federation Suggested citation: Anderson, L., P Glick, S Heyck-Williams, and J Murphy 2016 Changing Tides: How Sea-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and Recreation Economies along the U.S Eastern Seaboard National Wildlife Federation: Washington, DC Cover image: Loggerhead sea turtle Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission National Wildlife Federation 1990 K Street NW Washington, DC 20006 www.nwf.org Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard Table of CONTENTS Executive Summary INTRODUCTION Effects of Sea-level Rise on America’s East Coast State Impacts: The Cost of Rising Seas in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast Southeast Region Florida: The Everglades and Florida Keys Georgia: Sapelo Island and Blackbeard National Wildlife Refuge South Carolina: Santee Delta and Santee Coastal Reserve 10 North Carolina: Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Outer Banks 11 Mid-Atlantic Region 12 Virginia: Chesapeake Bay and the Back Bay Island National Wildlife Refuge 12 Maryland: Assateague Island and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge 14 Delaware: Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge 16 Pennsylvania: John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge 17 New Jersey: Delaware Bay and Egg Island Wildlife Management Area 18 New York: Gateway National Recreation Area and Jamaica Bay Northeast Region Connecticut: Long Island Sound and Barn Island Wildlife Management Area 19 20 20 Rhode Island: Ninigret Pond and Ninigret National Wildlife Refuge 21 Massachusetts: Plum Island and the Great Marsh 22 New Hampshire: Hampton-Seabrook Estuary 23 Maine: Acadia National Park 23 Taking Action 25 Policy Recommendations: Two Pillars for Climate Action 25 ENDNOTES 29 Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Royal terns Photo: Rachel Kramer S tates along the Eastern Seaboard are already feeling the impacts of climate change Climate change, which is caused by the atmospheric build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) from fossil fuel combustion and other human activities, contributes to higher ocean temperatures (which in turn have been linked to increased intensity and frequency of hurricanes) and sea-level rise As such, our coasts and communities, even ones inland, are facing growing challenges from erosion, saltwater intrusion, and floods These impacts have far reaching consequences for both natural and human communities along the coast from Miami to Maine Coasts are critical to wildlife and people Communities across the region depend on coastal beaches, bays, and islands for a wide array of benefits These unique ecosystems provide crucial habitat for wildlife such as fish and waterfowl and support robust tourism and recreation economies They also serve as natural buffers against potentially damaging storms and, increasingly, against rising sea levels As GHG emissions have increased over the last century, warming seawater has expanded, glaciers have melted, and the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have begun to weaken and break off into the ocean This has led to an inch rise in global average sea level over the past century As global temperatures continue to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable Exactly how much and how fast sea-level rise will occur in the decades to come is difficult to determine, as it depends on how much global GHG emissions will increase and how glaciers and ice sheets will react to rising temperatures What is clear, however, is that the more GHG emissions continue to increase, the higher sea level will climb Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard Projections for sea-level rise give reasons for concern According to the 2014 U.S National Climate Assessment, global average sea level is estimated to rise another one to four feet by the end of this century, with some areas seeing even greater increases due to localized factors such as land subsidence.1 Even at the lower end of sea-level rise projections, the impacts on wildlife habitats and human communities could be devastating And yet, recent science suggests that the higher-range scenario underestimates the amount of sea-level rise we could experience In this scenario, sea levels are projected to rise by 6.6 feet by 2100 if drastic emission cuts are not made soon.2 Totals could reach well over that amount within a few centuries if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt significantly Recent evidence suggests this scenario is increasingly likely if GHG emissions continue to rise.3,4 Consider that under a 6.6 foot sea-level rise scenario alone, large areas of coastal cities, including parts of Boston, Atlantic City, Charleston, Virginia Beach, and Miami, would be under water the near future, by taking actions to resist impacts and improve coastal resilience—a strategy referred to as adaptation In the wake of increasingly dire projections for sea-level rise, however, it is equally essential that we prevent the worst outcomes by significantly reducing the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions—a strategy known as mitigation To protect our communities and natural resources, we should swiftly implement a two-pronged strategy of mitigation and adaptation: 1) dramatically reduce our GHG emissions to slow and eventually stop the impacts of climate change, and 2) proactively prepare for impacts that cannot be avoided Americans are eager for answers At the start of 2016, 70% of Americans believed that climate change was occurring.8 As people increasingly experience the negative consequences of carbon pollution, the need for action becomes clearer In addition to sea-level rise, climate change presents another risk to our coasts: more intense and damaging storms An increase in the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes since the early 1980s has been linked, in part, to warmer surface water temperatures.5 While projections for the future are somewhat uncertain, studies suggest that in the coming decades the number of the strongest (Category and 5) storms will increase and that the amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes will be greater Sea-level rise is exacerbating the impacts of storm surges— by allowing the incoming domes of water to reach farther inland—a trend that is expected to continue.6 By mid-century, certain areas could experience “100-year” flooding events (i.e., that have a 1% annual chance of occurring) more frequently—even annually—because higher sea levels make them more likely to occur As the risks from sea-level rise continue to grow, so, too, has the impetus for states and communities to prepare for changes that are occurring, or will occur in Cormorant Photo: Candy Childrey Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard Horned grebe pair Photo: Ken Conger Policymakers on the federal, state and local levels can and should reduce carbon emissions by enacting policies that speed the transition from carbon-intensive fossil fuel extraction, development and combustion to clean renewable energy sources, and by incorporating carbon storage incentives and requirements into forestry and land use decisions In light of the growing evidence that human-induced climate change is already altering our landscape and natural resources, America must become far more diligent in its effort to craft meaningful and efficient solutions Mitigation Adaptation • • • • • • • • This report demonstrates the risks to wildlife, recreation, and local economies of sea-level rise by illustrating key impacts in 15 eastern U.S states: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine It then lays out policy solutions to both mitigate the threat of, and adapt to, a changing climate Specifically the report recommends: Set a carbon price to achieve economy-wide emission reductions Implement the Clean Power Plan to transition to a clean energy economy Expand wildlife-friendly renewable energy such as responsibly developed wind and solar Limit methane waste from oil and gas development Reduce and better account for carbon impacts of fossil fuel development Support clean transportation such as low-emission vehicles and public transit Enhance ecosystem carbon storage and sequestration • • • • • Assess coastal climate risks and craft plans to reduce those risks Curb development that degrades the resilience of coastal ecosystems Improve opportunities for habitat migration Reform coastal permitting policies to encourage natural infrastructure Reform the National Flood Insurance Program to stop encouraging development in risky areas Ensure adaptation policies benefit all members of society, including those most vulnerable Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard INTRODUCTION T he East Coast is fortunate to have a tremendous diversity of tidal waterways, wetlands, barrier islands, and other coastal habitats, which support a wide variety of fish and wildlife species and enhance the economies and quality of life of nearby communities Each year, beach visitation, recreational fishing, and wildlife viewing activities alone contribute tens of billions of dollars to East Coast states.9 These ecosystems also have natural abilities to adapt to the dynamic conditions along eastern shorelines Barrier islands naturally shift and reform after storms, and tidal marshland has an extraordinary ability to adapt to changes in inundation and salinity from saltwater intrusion However, these remarkable capacities are being overwhelmed by sea-level rise, particularly where such habitats have already been damaged by development, coastal armoring (developing physical barriers such as sea walls), and other activities The extraction, development, and combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas are the primary forces driving human-caused climate change For America’s coastal communities, accelerating sea-level rise due to the expansion of warming ocean water and melting glaciers and ice sheets is among the most direct and certain consequences of climate change The average global sea level rose about inches over the past century, and since the early 1990s the rate of sea-level rise has been accelerating.10 As global temperatures continue to increase, further sea-level rise is inevitable Recent scenarios developed for the 2014 U.S National Climate Assessment (NCA) suggest that sea-level rise will range from an additional inches (over 1992 levels) to 6.6 feet by the end of the century, with a midrange estimate of 1-4 feet.11 Even under the low-end sea level projections, which assumes, optimistically, that the world will achieve significant near-term reductions in GHG emissions, coastal communities will face significant impacts Yet there is compelling evidence that even the high-end projections, which assume a continued increase in global emissions, likely underestimate potential sealevel rise.12 For example, research shows that, under a 4°C (7.2°F) increase in global average temperature, accelerating ice loss on Greenland and Antarctica would contribute to possibly hundreds of feet of sea-level rise within a matter of just a few centuries.13,14 What’s more, sea-level rise is not uniform along the nation’s coastlines A number of factors, including variability in ocean currents and vertical land movement, can affect relative sea level changes at regional and local scales In many places along the East Coast, for example, land subsidence due to soil compaction and activities such as groundwater extraction mean that actual sea-level rise will be greater than the global average and, thus, will have more significant impacts Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change: 1880 - 2014 This graph depicts annual absolute sea level change averaged over the entire Earth’s ocean surface The tidal gauges measure relative sea level along the coast and satellite images examine absolute sea level change over the entire ocean Source: EPA, Climate Change Indicators in the United States Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard Effects of Sea-level Rise ON America’s East Coast T here are numerous impacts from sea-level rise along the East Coast In this report, we focus on nine ways in which sea-level rise is predicted to affect key East Coast natural systems that are vital for wildlife, recreation economies, and local communities NINE IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON NATURAL SYSTEMS AND COMMUNITIES: 1) Increased coastal flooding: Many cities along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States face increasing risk of coastal flooding Based on a global analysis that ranks cities for exposure of vulnerable assets to coastal flooding in 2070 (due to both climate change and other socio-economic factors), Miami stands to lose the most in financial assets of any coastal city—$3.5 trillion New York City is ranked third, after the coastal city of Guangzhou in China.15 While “mega cities” like New York and Miami have the most economic assets at risk, poorer areas along the coast have less ability to adapt to or escape the impacts of sea-level rise and extreme weather events This means they, too, are highly vulnerable to impacts of climate change, which threatens important values such as social and cultural cohesion The populations of coastal communities are also expected to increase in the future, placing more people in danger and adding risk to socioeconomic systems 2) Saltwater intrusion into the freshwater that supplies communities and wildlife: Sea-level rise will impact the fresh water table along the coast as salt water seeps into freshwater aquifers INCREASED COASTAL FLOODING CULTURAL IMPACTS LOSS OF OUTDOOR RECREATION INCOME SALTWATER INTRUSION NINE IMPACTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE LOSS OF HUNTING AND FISHING OPPORTUNITY LOSS OF WETLAND BUFFER ZONES LOSS OF PROPERTY VALUES BEACH EROSION GREATER DAMAGE FROM WEATHER EVENTS Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard Contaminated aquifers can pollute the freshwater needed for agriculture and drinking water This change in salinity will also harm, and result in the loss of, coastal habitats such as tidal freshwater marsh.16 In addition, saltwater intrusion can damage infrastructure such as irrigation, wastewater and drinking water treatment facilities, and septic tanks 3) Beach erosion: Beaches provide tourist attractions and critical barriers between the ocean and coastal property Nearly half of Florida’s beaches are designated as critically eroding, which has forced the state to replenish the beaches with millions of cubic yards of sand According to a 2013 review, Florida has spent $393 million over the last decade on sand replacement.17 Erosion also affects many species, such as shorebirds and turtles, which rely on healthy beaches for nesting and migration 4) Loss of wetland buffer zones: Coastal wetlands provide vital habitat for birds and fish, and also offer coastal communities flood storage (absorbing and storing flood water), storm surge buffers, erosion control, and water quality improvements.18 Land use changes, hurricanes, and sea-level rise are increasing the rate of coastal wetland loss in the U.S.19 Increased inundation from sea-level rise is overwhelming the ability of tidal marshes to adapt, resulting in damage to these ecosystems In the Delaware region, one acre of tidal wetlands are collectively being lost every day.20 5) Greater damage from more frequent and severe extreme weather events: As the climate continues to change, extreme weather events are expected to occur more often, resulting in greater damage in areas already experiencing effects of sea-level rise Costs associated with these weather events have increased significantly over the past decades, exacerbated by sea-level rise and other factors.21 Already, average losses caused by recent hurricane winds, land subsidence, and sea-level rise are estimated to be $14 billion per year.22 In 2005, Hurricane Katrina alone caused an estimated $134 billion in damages.23 Hurricane Sandy in 2012 caused an estimated $50 billion in damages.24 6) Loss of property values: Local governments rely on property tax revenue that comes from seaside homes and businesses As sea levels continue to rise, both property values and business opportunities in many areas are likely to decline At least $1.4 trillion worth of property in the United States is within one eighth of a mile from the coast,25 and storm surge from hurricanes can travel miles inland.26 In some parts of low-lying Florida, every foot of sea-level rise will result in the shoreline moving inland 500 to 2,000 feet.27 7) Loss of hunting and fishing opportunities: As the seas warm from rising global temperatures, some marine species are moving north toward cooler ocean waters This shift in distribution leads to disruption in coastal ecosystems as prey and predator species become separated.28 This effect will be compounded by sea-level rise as it alters coastal ecosystems Juvenile species that depend on coastal tidal marshes for their development will lose habitat from inundation The multi-billion dollar fishing industry will be impacted, disturbing the coastal communities that depend on reliable fishing as a food source or economic engine Hunting opportunities— such as for waterfowl—may also be impacted by habitat changes to coastal wetlands and disruption of food sources.29 8) Loss of wildlife, natural places, and outdoor recreation income: Other species like shore birds and sea turtles, a tourist draw in many areas, could face altered ecosystems and habitat loss as the oceans warm and sea level increases The economic value of coastal recreation in the United States is between $20 billion and $60 billion annually for beachgoing, angling, birdwatching, and snorkeling/diving.30 9) Cultural impacts: In the case of local communities that depend on coastal ecosystems for subsistence fishing and farming, sea-level rise could dramatically change their way of life For example, the Seminole Tribe of South Florida depends on a healthy Everglades ecosystem to preserve their cultural heritage.31 Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard State Impacts: The Cost of Rising Seas in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast Southeast ME NH MA NY PA CT NJ MD DE VA NC SC GA FL Eastern seaboard states affected by rising seas RI Florida Out of all U.S states, Florida is most vulnerable to sea-level rise, in large part because much of the state is at or near sea level The Miami region has the largest amount of exposed assets and the fourth-largest population susceptible to sea-level rise in the world.32 Other areas of coastal Florida, such as Tampa Bay, also are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise With a $60 billion beach tourism industry,33 the impacts of sea-level rise have the potential to severely harm Florida’s economy Coastal erosion is becoming a growing problem, with increasing demands to replace sand on eroding beaches A recent study by the Army Corps of Engineers found that Miami-Dade County will need roughly 20 million cubic yards of sand (or the equivalent of over 10,000 football fields covered in foot of sand) over the next 50 years to maintain its beaches.34 The county has used up nearly all of its offshore sand sources, and will need to find acceptable alternative sources for future projects According to estimates in MiamiDade County’s FY 2013-2014 Proposed Budget and Multi-Year Capital Plan, the county will need to spend more than $32 million on beach erosion and sand replacement between 2013 and 2017 Miami-Dade’s estimated beachfront property is valued at more than $14.7 billion, not including infrastructure;35 overall, $69 billion worth of property is at risk of flooding in less than 15 years in Florida.36 Changing Tides: HOW SEA-Level Rise Harms Wildlife and recreation Economies Along the U.S Eastern Seaboard