assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 10 pptx

... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna- tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 108 ASSESSING FINANCIAL ... predicting the Asian crisis than the models of Frankel and Rose (1996) and of Sachs, Tornell, and Velasco (1996). 11. See Berg and Pattillo (1999), The Economist (1998), F...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Outlook. Although the contagion of financial disturbances usually runs from large countries to smaller ones, the Asian financial crisis has shown that severe financial- sector difficulties in even ... 1996; Kaminsky and Reinhart 2000). The more costly it is to clean up after a financial crisis, the greater the returns to designing a well-functioning early warning system. 6. See C...

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... weak and when an extensive 9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (1996), Honohan (1995), and Sundararajan ... with international financial rescue packages might be reduced. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 12 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY the 1997-99 Asian...

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... and the exchange rate. For instance, in the banking panics of an earlier era large withdrawals of bank deposits could be used to date the crisis. In the wake of deposit insurance, however, bank ... useful for dating banking crises. As Japan’s banking crisis highlights, many modern financial crises stem from the asset side of the balance sheet, not from deposit withdrawals. Hence the p...

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... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY banking crises, the maximum ranking change is ... with a considerable lag and hence tend to be of less use from an early warning standpoint. Table 3.6 presents the lead times for our monthly indicators—both for currency and banking...

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... other Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... countries can tap international financial markets. In their analysis, they focus on the sovereign ratings of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s; in what follows, we ex...

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... to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Recent events, however, have highlighted the importance of improving upon a system of early warnings. ... 0 26 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 62 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 5.5 Weighting the signals for currency and banking crises in emerging...

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... gen- eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.024 and 1.620 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.018 and 1.589 for the real exchange rate forecast during tranquil and ... to which crises probabilities increased for other emerging markets following the Mexican crisis of 1994 and the Asian crisis of 1997, owing to trade and financial links. Most...

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... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 1998 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar. 1. For a comparison ... does not change much for those Latin American countries and the Philippines that are not a part of the Japanese bank cluster. For them, the contagion from the Thai crisis via this channel...

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... Economics | http://www.iie.com 96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between 50 and 100 percent of the banking and currency crises that occurred over ... more important for banking crises than for currency crises, whereas the opposite proved true for the two indicators designed to capture currency/maturity mismatches a...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20