assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 9 ppsx
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 9 ppsx
... AND CONCLUDING REMARKS 99
Table 8.2 Country rankings of vulnerability to currency crises for
two periods
a
January 199 6-June 199 7 January 199 6-December 199 7
Experienced Experienced
Country Rank ... turns
into a crisis and when banking crises end. For example, by our criteria,
banking distress in Indonesia and Mexico really began in 199 2 (and not
in 199 7 and 199 4, respectively)....
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt
... INTRODUCTION 3
Table 1.1 Emerging Asia: real GDP growth forecasts, 199 6 -98
199 8 Actual
Country 199 6 199 7 (as of May 199 7) 199 8
Indonesia 7.8 4 .9 7.5 מ13.7
Thailand 6.4 מ1.3 7.0 מ8.0
South ... Demirgu
¨
c
¸
-Kunt and Detragiache ( 199 8), Eichengreen and Rose ( 199 8), IMF
( 199 8c), Kaminsky and Reinhart ( 199 9), and Lindgren et al. ( 199 6).
Institute for International Econom...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 2 potx
... weak and when an extensive
9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel
( 199 6a, 199 6b), Goldstein and Turner ( 199 6), Honohan ( 199 5), and Sundararajan ... of nearly $50 billion
for Mexico in 199 4 -95 ; over $120 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South
Korea in 199 7 -98 ; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 199 8; an...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3 pot
... 199 1 199 1 199 0
Thailand March 197 9 198 3 198 3
May 199 6 199 7
Turkey 198 2
January 199 1 199 2 199 1
199 4 199 4
Uruguay March 197 1
March 198 1 198 1 198 1
Venezuela 198 0 198 0
October 199 3 199 4 199 3
n.a. ס ... 198 0
May 198 5 198 5 198 5
198 9
December 199 4 199 5 199 5
Bolivia October 198 7 198 6 n.a.
Brazil November 198 5 199 0
December 199 4 199 4 199 4
Chile 197 6
September 1...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 4 pot
... recent theoreticaland empirical expla-
nations of the Asian crisis (Calvo 199 8; Calvo and Mendoza 199 6; Gol-
dstein 199 8b; Radelet and Sachs 199 8). As before, the indicators are ranked
according ... the vantage
point of a policymaker or financial market participant who wants to
implement preemptive or risk-mitigating measures, it is not a matter of
6. See Calvo and Mendoza ( 199 6) for...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 5 doc
... AGENCIES AND THE MARKETS 49
research on ratings performance. Cantor and Packer ( 199 6b), for example,
provide extensive evidence of rating agency disagreements.
Why Do Credit Ratings Fail to Anticipate
Crises?
As ... other
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com
50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 6 ppt
... data for January 199 6 through June 199 7. Besides providing an
assessment of the model’s out-of-sample performance, this exercise may
shed light on why most analysts did not foresee the Asian crisis.
In ... FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
Table 5.5 Weighting the signals for currency and banking crises in
emerging markets, June 199 6-June 199 7
Currency crises Banking crises
Country Weig...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 7 pdf
... 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Malaysia
199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
The Philippines
199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 199 7 199 8
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Thailand
Note: ... 69
Figure 5.1 Probability of currency crisis for four Southeast Asian
countries, 199 0 -97
199 0 199 1 199 2 199 3 199 4 199 5 199 6 1...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 8 docx
... the European
exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance
of the Australian economy in 199 8 coincident with a large depreciation
of the Australian dollar.
1. For a comparison ... crisis
Country (December 199 4) (July 199 7) (January 199 9)
Argentina 16.65 0 29. 15
Bolivia 0 0 0
Brazil 18.4 0 n.a.
Chile 0 0 26.58
Colombia 12.5 0 15.83
Denmark 0 0 0
Finland 0 0 0
Indone...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 10 pptx
... of Sachs,
Tornell, and Velasco ( 199 6).
11. See Berg and Pattillo ( 199 9), The Economist ( 199 8), Furman and Stiglitz ( 199 8), IMF
( 199 8c), and Wyplosz ( 199 7, 199 8).
Institute for International Economics ... (Berg and Pattillo 199 9), which
found that the signals model of Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart ( 199 8) did a better job
of predicting the Asian crisis than the models of Fra...
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