assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 6 ppt

... 1 0 26 Thailand 53 6 2 1 1 1 30 Turkey 27 5 3 2 2 0 30 Uruguay 74 5 1 1 1 0 26 Venezuela 18 4 1 2 2 0 26 Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 62 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table ... for currency and banking crises in emerging markets, June 19 96- June 1997 Currency crises Banking crises Country Weighted signals Rank Weighted signals Rank Argenti...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Calvo and Reinhart 19 96; Kaminsky and Reinhart 2000). The more costly it is to clean up after a financial crisis, the greater the returns to designing a well-functioning early warning system. 6. ... warning system. 6. See Calvo and Reinhart (19 96) and Goldstein (1998a). Kaminsky and Reinhart (2000) provide an analysis of contagion in the Asian crisis that stresses the financi...

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... Morespecifically, the ‘‘tranquil’’ period excludes the 24 months beforeand after currency crises and the 24 months before and 36 months after banking crises. 13. In the cases where currency and banking crises ... crisis. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 1 06 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY crisis probabilities in 19 96- 97 than did Argentina and Mexico—no...

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... weak and when an extensive 9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (19 96) , Honohan (1995), and Sundararajan ... been shown to 3. See Leiderman and Thorne (19 96) and Calvo and Goldstein (19 96) for an analysis of the Mexican crisis. 4. These alternative explanations of the Asian crisis are di...

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... and the exchange rate. For instance, in the banking panics of an earlier era large withdrawals of bank deposits could be used to date the crisis. In the wake of deposit insurance, however, bank ... useful for dating banking crises. As Japan’s banking crisis highlights, many modern financial crises stem from the asset side of the balance sheet, not from deposit withdrawals. Hence the p...

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... 19 66 South Korea 67 300 Thailand 46 107 Latin America Argentina 23 108 Brazil 23 69 Chile 25 44 Colombia 19 57 Mexico 16 1 26 Sources: Bank for International Settlements; International Financial ... the vantage point of a policymaker or financial market participant who wants to implement preemptive or risk-mitigating measures, it is not a matter of 6. See Calvo and Mendoza (19...

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... other Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... countries can tap international financial markets. In their analysis, they focus on the sovereign ratings of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s; in what follows, we ex...

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... gen- eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.024 and 1 .62 0 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.018 and 1.589 for the real exchange rate forecast during tranquil and ... Radelet and Sachs (1998), who argue these crises are the byproduct of a financial panic. 6. It is noteworthy that finance companies had been receiving substantial assistance fro...

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... scores are 16. 65 and 4.32, 5. See Kaminsky and Reinhart (2000) for details on the pattern of trade. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 86 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table ... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 1998 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar....

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... http://www.iie.com 96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between 50 and 100 percent of the banking and currency crises that occurred over the 26- year ... severity for the 76 currency crises and 26 banking crises in the Kaminsky-Reinhart sample. For the 1970-94 sample, currency and banking crises were far more severe...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20