assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 5 doc
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 5 doc
... other
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com
50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets?
(probit estimation with robust standard ... countries can tap international financial markets. In their
analysis, they focus on the sovereign ratings of Moody’s and Standard &
Poor’s; in what follows, we e...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 8 docx
... scores are 16. 65 and 4.32,
5. See Kaminsky and Reinhart (2000) for details on the pattern of trade.
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com
86 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
Table ... the European
exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance
of the Australian economy in 1998 coincident with a large depreciation
of the Australian dollar....
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 1 ppt
... מ6.7
The Philippines 5. 7 5. 1 6.4 מ0 .5
Hong Kong 4.9 5. 3 5. 5 5. 1
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook.
Although the contagion of financial disturbances usually runs from
large ... countries to smaller ones, the Asian financial crisis has shown that
severe financial- sector difficulties in even a relatively small economy
(namely Thailand) can have wide-ran...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 2 potx
... of nearly $50 billion
for Mexico in 1994- 95; over $120 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South
Korea in 1997-98; over $ 25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 1998; and
another $42 billion for ... weak and when an extensive
9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel
(1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (1996), Honohan (19 95) ,...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3 pot
... and the
exchange rate. For instance, in the banking panics of an earlier era large
withdrawals of bank deposits could be used to date the crisis. In the wake
of deposit insurance, however, bank ... useful for
dating banking crises. As Japan’s banking crisis highlights, many modern
financial crises stem from the asset side of the balance sheet, not from
deposit withdrawals. Hence the p...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 4 pot
... 0 .51 80 42.4 15. 0 3 מ1
M2/reserves 0 .51 75 42.3 14.9 5 0
Output 0 .57 71 43.0 12 .5 6 0
Excess real M1 0 .57 57 40.1 12.3 7 0
balances
Reserves 0 .58 72 38.9 12.2 8 0
M2 multiplier 0 .59 72 39.2 11.6 ... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises.
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com
36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
banking crises, the maximum r...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 6 ppt
... 2 0 52
South Korea 63 11 3 5 4 1 65
Spain 55 7 2 1 1 0 35
Sweden 60 6 1 1 1 0 30
Thailand 54 6 3 1 1 1 30
Turkey 33 5 3 3 3 0 35
Uruguay 71 5 1 1 1 0 26
Venezuela 29 5 2 1 1 0 26
Institute for ... 19 5 1 1 1 0 26
The Philippines 59 8 3 2 2 0 43
South Africa 55 10 3 1 1 0 43
South Korea 42 10 4 3 3 1 57
Spain 51 7 1 1 1 0 35
Sweden 59 5 1 1 1 0 26
Thailand 53 6 2 1...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 7 pdf
... gen-
eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.024 and
1.620 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.018 and 1 .58 9 for the
real exchange rate forecast during tranquil and ... ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
reduction in reserve requirements, accompanying financial liberalization.
Bank credit increased by 44 percent a year during 19 95- 96. As...
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... Economics | http://www.iie.com
96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY
tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between
50 and 100 percent of the banking and currency crises that occurred
over ... more important for
banking crises than for currency crises, whereas the opposite proved true
for the two indicators designed to capture currency/maturity mismatches
a...
assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 10 pptx
... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna-
tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the
Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com
108 ASSESSING FINANCIAL ... Morespecifically, the ‘‘tranquil’’ period excludes the 24 months beforeand after currency
crises and the 24 months before and 36 months after banking crises.
13. In the cas...
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