assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 4 pot

... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY banking crises, the maximum ranking change is ... 0.35 52 24. 0 14. 1 1 0 rate Stock prices 0 .46 76 23 .4 11.2 3 0 M2 multiplier 0 .46 63 18.3 9.0 4 0 Output 0. 54 90 17.3 7.2 5 0 Exports 0.68 79 14. 3 4. 7 7 ם1 Real interest rate 0.68...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... of nearly $50 billion for Mexico in 19 94- 95; over $120 billion for Thailand,Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997-98; over $25 billion for Russia and Ukraine in 1998; and another $42 billion for ... been shown to 3. See Leiderman and Thorne (1996) and Calvo and Goldstein (1996) for an analysis of the Mexican crisis. 4. These alternative explanations of the Asian crisis are discuss...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... and the exchange rate. For instance, in the banking panics of an earlier era large withdrawals of bank deposits could be used to date the crisis. In the wake of deposit insurance, however, bank ... useful for dating banking crises. As Japan’s banking crisis highlights, many modern financial crises stem from the asset side of the balance sheet, not from deposit withdrawals. Hence the p...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... countries to smaller ones, the Asian financial crisis has shown that severe financial- sector difficulties in even a relatively small economy (namely Thailand) can have wide-ranging spillover effects if ... 1996; Kaminsky and Reinhart 2000). The more costly it is to clean up after a financial crisis, the greater the returns to designing a well-functioning early warning system. 6. S...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... other Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4. 4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... Economics | http://www.iie.com 48 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4. 2 Do ratings predict banking crises? (probit estimation with robust standard error...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... 11 5 6 .42 15 Greece 48 4 44 2 14. 21 4 Indonesia* 22 14 44 2 7.93 11 Israel 35 8 44 2 8. 34 9 Malaysia* 39 6 33 3 10.10 8 Peru 30 10 22 4 4.08 19 The Philippines* 46 5 33 3 12.96 6 Mexico 24 13 11 ... ‘‘weighted’’ Country crises Rank crises Rank signals Rank Argentina 29 11 11 5 6.69 14 Bolivia 35 8 22 4 6. 94 12 Brazil 36 7 33 3 6.82 13 Chile 31 9 33 3 5. 74 17 Colombia...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY reduction in reserve requirements, accompanying financial liberalization. Bank credit increased by 44 percent a year during 1995-96. As in Thailand, rapidly expanding ... gen- eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.0 24 and 1.620 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.018 and 1.589 for the real exchange rate...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 1998 coincident with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar. 1. For a comparison ... compare ‘‘tranquil’’ and ‘‘crisis’’ periods. We define periods of tranquility as the periods that exclude the 24 months before and after currency crises. In the case of banking crises, the 24...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Economics | http://www.iie.com 96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between 50 and 100 percent of the banking and currency crises that occurred over ... more important for banking crises than for currency crises, whereas the opposite proved true for the two indicators designed to capture currency/maturity mismatches an...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Morespecifically, the ‘‘tranquil’’ period excludes the 24 months beforeand after currency crises and the 24 months before and 36 months after banking crises. 13. In the cases where currency and banking crises ... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna- tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the Institute for International Economics | http://w...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20