assessing financial vulnerability an early warning system for emerging markets phần 3 pot

... and the exchange rate. For instance, in the banking panics of an earlier era large withdrawals of bank deposits could be used to date the crisis. In the wake of deposit insurance, however, bank ... useful for dating banking crises. As Japan’s banking crisis highlights, many modern financial crises stem from the asset side of the balance sheet, not from deposit withdrawals. Hence the p...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... These have been shown to 3. See Leiderman and Thorne (1996) and Calvo and Goldstein (1996) for an analysis of the Mexican crisis. 4. These alternative explanations of the Asian crisis are discussed ... weak and when an extensive 9. For example, the studies of banking crises in emerging markets by Caprio and Klingebiel (1996a, 1996b), Goldstein and Turner (1996), Honohan (1995), a...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... inflows/GDP 0 .38 43 36.8 18.5 Current account balance/ 0 .38 38 36 .1 18.4 investment Overall budget deficit/GDP 0.47 52 26.9 12.1 Current account balance/GDP 0.50 33 29 .3 12.1 Central bank credit ... broad range of indicators in anticipating crises. Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 36 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY banking crises, the maximum rank...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Moody’s rating system includes Aaa, Aa1, Aa2, Aa3, A1, A2, A3, Baa1, Baa2, Baa3, Ba1, Ba2, and Ba3, and Standard & Poor’s runs AAA, AAם, AA, AAמ,Aם,A,Aמ, BBBם, BBB, BBBמ,BBם, BB, and BBמ. Source: ... percent of GDP for Indonesia, 30 percent for Thailand, 16 percent for South Korea, and 10 percent of GDP for Malaysia (World Bank 2000). In addition to the enormous fiscal costs, b...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... other Institute for International Economics | http://www.iie.com 50 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY Table 4.4 Do ratings predict banking crises for emerging markets? (probit estimation with robust standard ... months for currency crises. All the indicatorsconsidered are therefore best regarded as leading rather than coincident, which is consistent with the spirit of an ‘ e...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... 7. 93 11 Israel 35 8 44 2 8 .34 9 Malaysia* 39 6 33 3 10.10 8 Peru 30 10 22 4 4.08 19 The Philippines* 46 5 33 3 12.96 6 Mexico 24 13 11 5 2.71 20 South Africa 50 3 33 3 14. 63 2 South Korea* 63 ... Philippines 68 8 3 3 3 0 48 South Africa 63 10 3 2 2 0 52 South Korea 63 11 3 5 4 1 65 Spain 55 7 2 1 1 0 35 Sweden 60 6 1 1 1 0 30 Thailand 54 6 3 1 1 1 30 Turke...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... gen- eral. For example, the quadratic probability score declines from 0.024 and 1.620 for the naive forecast of currency crises to 0.018 and 1.589 for the real exchange rate forecast during tranquil and ... to which crises probabilities increased for other emerging markets following the Mexican crisis of 1994 and the Asian crisis of 1997, owing to trade and financial links. Most...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... growth rates before and after currency crises (percent) average of t؁1 Indicator and t؁2 tt؀1 t؀2 t 3 Real GDP growth All countries 3. 3 1.0 1.8 3. 1 2.9 Moderate-inflation 3. 5 2.1 2.4 3. 3 4.0 countries a High-inflation ... the European exchange ratemechanism (ERM)crisis andthe stronggrowth performance of the Australian economy in 1998 coincident with a large depreciation of the Austra...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Economics | http://www.iie.com 96 ASSESSING FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY tendency, the better-performing leading indicators anticipated between 50 and 100 percent of the banking and currency crises that occurred over ... more important for banking crises than for currency crises, whereas the opposite proved true for the two indicators designed to capture currency/maturity mismatches an...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20

... Morespecifically, the ‘‘tranquil’’ period excludes the 24 months beforeand after currency crises and the 24 months before and 36 months after banking crises. 13. In the cases where currency and banking crises ... International Financial Statistics (IFS), the Interna- tional Finance Corporation’s (IFC) Emerging Market Indicators, and the Institute for International Economics | http://w...

Ngày tải lên: 14/08/2014, 22:20